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One EDGE player expected to higher than all but Chase is K'Lavon Chaisson who missed games due to injury and he also skipped the Combine so he took a double-hit with your formula. His final four collegiate games he produced spectacular numbers.
Yeah, Chaisson's a guy whose reputation is way above his production. He had only 6.5 sacks this year, and only 9.5 for his career, and his numbers are similarly unimpressive if you look at pressures, tackles for loss, per game stats, or per pass rush stats. Maybe his numbers are good if you only look at his last 4 games, but that's a tiny sample size and not how I'd evaluate production for any prospect (except maybe on day 3 if I'm taking shots at flashes of potential).
If you look at tape in addition to stats you will see something unique about one of his signature pass rush moves. He does a 'T-Rex' move where he pulls his arms-in and swings them back-and-forth in quick succession getting the O-Lineman to commit then dips outside or spins inside to beat the punch. Its very-effective.
All analytic analysis of EDGE rushers use production and measurables as the keys. I've seen it with the first acknowledged analytic FO with Paul DePodesta (Moneyball) and Sashi Brown where they drafted Ogbah and Nate Orchard and Carl Nassib in addition to Myles Garrett, all heavy producers in college.
I have watched Chaisson from the perspective of if he would fit the Vikings as an edge rusher and I do not like the lack of strength he has at the point of attack. He is always stunting when he is successful and I don't see him winning straight up in a traditional way. He seems more like a situational pass rusher than one I want on the field all 3 downs.Bracie Smathers said:
Now, thinking about the order that I would draft the RBs in if I had to draft today (taking into account things like expected draft order), I'd go with something like this:
In normal seasons, about 23 players attend the draft and hang out in a room on site. The NFL tries to bring in the best prospects for that, so they are typically guys who have a good shot to be drafted in rd1, and are almost always go in first 2 rounds. List from the past few years here.voiceofunreason said:
Still undrafted through rd3:
It has turned out to be surprisingly close to how the NFL sees these guys. Here's how things look through 3 rounds, with my formula's rating for these RBs and their draft pick:
My top tier is the same two guys in the same order.
I have to say that I read several scouts that expressed the idea that he wasn't that great of an open-field runner and that it was his speed that caused him to break big runs rather than his return ability, a talent that either Football Perspective, PFF, or Football Outsiders maintained was actually below-average in college. Tyreek and DeSean were like human joysticks. They look wild. Ruggs is less juke, less wiggle.
It's likely that Duvernay will find his way onto all my dynasty teams unless I get seriously snaked in a couple drafts. I'm pretty close to finishing my rankings and he's probably going to end up in the top 15. He's one of the only day two players who really intrigued me on tape. He doesn't look like a 10.3 100m guy in his clips, but he still looks fast and puts early vertical pressure on DBs. He's an odd one because his height (5'10") has him pigeon-holed as a small/slot type of WR, but in terms of BMI he's on the opposite end of the spectrum with the likes of Fitzgerald/Crabtree/JuJu. It's an odd combination. He seems to be only an average route runner. I watched some of his 1v1 reps from the Senior Bowl and he was not able to consistently create space out of his breaks. He's more straight-line explosive than shifty/bouncy, but he's not terrible in this regard and his game highlights had some good reps in them. What probably gives me pause more than anything is the low-ish draft slot. He played four years at a huge school, went to the Senior Bowl, and still fell all the way to the late 3rd round as the 17th WR drafted.
I just read the PFF scouting report on him because I'm a subscriber. His cons, or complaints against, were a lack of downfield speed, mediocre (rounded corners and the like) route running, and that most of his catches came on screens this year (42 out of 105). He also was said to be a little smaller and to have no experience facing press coverage.
Lack of speed doesn't really compute given his 4.39 40 time and track background. He doesn't look super fast on the football field in the same way that DeSean Jackson or Tyreek Hill do, but ripping off a 4.39 on a 28+ BMI is pretty sick. I said elsewhere that it's more accurate to think of him as a 5'10" Andre Johnson instead of as a "small" slot/deep threat type. He is yoked, but short. Whether or not that can work is a little iffy. Golden Tate has done okay with a similar height/weight/speed. A negative comparison could be someone like Josh Boyce, who also had a funky body type with some disparate skills. Duvernay's hands are more reliable FWIW.
This is a good point and maybe they'll continue to be a run-first team, but it's also maybe a little bit of a chicken-and-egg thing since their best receiving weapons last year were a rookie WR who missed time with injuries (Marquise Brown) and their second-year TE. Maybe comparing the situation to New Orleans, Indy, Pittsburgh, etc was misguided because Lamar is not a traditional pocket passer like those other QBs. However, I do like the idea of him going to a team where he can get heavy snaps without having to do everything on his own. With Brown, Andrews, and now Dobbins and Duvernay in there, they're starting to have a pick-your-poison type of thing going on offense. Bad for volume maybe, but could be good for efficiency.
Part of my rationale for having Duvernay high is being relatively down on these guys. I'm lukewarm on Claypool, Hamler, and Pittman. I think I'm outright fading all the others (and Hamler looks very niche FWIW). Historically, the odds say maybe 2-3 guys in my red group above are going to be good. I find this cluster relatively unconvincing though compared to some past prospects picked in similar territory. Last year I was bullish on AJ Brown and Deebo. A couple years back it was JuJu. I don't see that guy this year who fell to the 2nd, but looks like he should've been a 1. Maybe I'm just missing it. Maybe it will be someone like Shenault or Claypool.
I hear you and I'm definitely a believer in the idea of "game speed" (Chad Johnson is the ultimate example), but there's simply no way to "technique" your way to a 10.3 100. You have to be born with that kind of juice, and not many are. I do think he has quality speed on the field. He gets off the line quickly. He eats up cushion quickly. People struggle to keep up with him. It's not that "wow" level like Tyreek, Moss, Heyward-Bey, or a young Ted Ginn, but it's noticeable.
Yeah, their comment jumped out at me as ringingly wrong, honestly. I was just relaying. No defense really intended. You're exactly right that you can't technique your way to a sub-4.4 or that 100 time. Just a professionally fast individual no matter the competition. Well, Usain and the track guys, but not the crossover track guys.
I was really down on Mike Wallace as a prospect. He looked really awkward to me in his routes and overall movement, and was simply a fast guy. Kolby Listenbee reminded me a lot of him, but was never healthy enough in the NFL to even get a chance at playing time.
This seems like a big difference between us. I think the big strength of this draft class is the depth of the good receiver prospects. Seems like a great year to trade back and get more 2nd round rookie picks, especially if someone like Aiyuk falls (like he has in the SP polls) but also if it's just some of these guys like Higgins, Pittman, Shenault, and Claypool.
