Larry Johnson (1 Viewer)

Keith Lewis said:

Thanks for the post, didn't realize his average was so high. I like LJ, as the #2 RB this year and in dynasty. Family Matters, just a heads up this thread is going to turn into a "Why LJ is in trouble" thread real quick, the LJ hate in these parts is heavy.

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Family Matters said:

Keith Lewis said:

Thanks for the post, didn't realize his average was so high. I like LJ, as the #2 RB this year and in dynasty. Family Matters, just a heads up this thread is going to turn into a "Why LJ is in trouble" thread real quick, the LJ hate in these parts is heavy.

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Sadly you're probably right. That's why I thought a little LJ love would be good.

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Cowtippers said:

Family Matters said:

Keith Lewis said:

Thanks for the post, didn't realize his average was so high. I like LJ, as the #2 RB this year and in dynasty. Family Matters, just a heads up this thread is going to turn into a "Why LJ is in trouble" thread real quick, the LJ hate in these parts is heavy.

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Sadly you're probably right. That's why I thought a little LJ love would be good.

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L.J. Now if the whispers ever turned true & L.J. found himself in Dallas, then

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Keith Lewis said:

Thanks for the post, didn't realize his average was so high. I like LJ, as the #2 RB this year and in dynasty. Family Matters, just a heads up this thread is going to turn into a "Why LJ is in trouble" thread real quick, the LJ hate in these parts is heavy.

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Family Matters said:

They don't hats in Texas bi enough for that many egos/personlities.

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Keith Lewis said:

Thanks for the post, didn't realize his average was so high. I like LJ, as the #2 RB this year and in dynasty. Family Matters, just a heads up this thread is going to turn into a "Why LJ is in trouble" thread real quick, the LJ hate in these parts is heavy.

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duaneok66 said:

nice research, but he's below average in actually CATCHING the ball . . . he caught less than 63 percent of passes that came his way in 2006 (NFL average for RBs in 2006 was a little under 75 percent) . . .I prefer to use a stat called Yards per Target (Y/T) which combines Catch% and Yds/Catch . . . using your baseline of 40 catches minimum, here's the list . . .TEAM Name Yards/TMIN 30-M.Moore 7.4STL 39-S.Jackson 7.3JAC 32-M.Jones-Drew 7.1WAS 46-L.Betts 7.0DET 34-K.Jones 6.7IND 29-J.Addai 6.5PHI 36-B.Westbrook 6.4NE 33-K.Faulk 6.4SD 21-L.Tomlinson 6.4KC 27-L.Johnson 6.2NO 25-R.Bush 6.1GB 30-A.Green 6.0NYG 21-T.Barber 5.7MIN 29-C.Taylor 5.6SF 21-F.Gore 5.6TB 32-M.Pittman 5.3

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Family Matters said:

duaneok66 said:

nice research, but he's below average in actually CATCHING the ball . . . he caught less than 63 percent of passes that came his way in 2006 (NFL average for RBs in 2006 was a little under 75 percent) . . .I prefer to use a stat called Yards per Target (Y/T) which combines Catch% and Yds/Catch . . . using your baseline of 40 catches minimum, here's the list . . .TEAM Name Yards/TMIN 30-M.Moore 7.4STL 39-S.Jackson 7.3JAC 32-M.Jones-Drew 7.1WAS 46-L.Betts 7.0DET 34-K.Jones 6.7IND 29-J.Addai 6.5PHI 36-B.Westbrook 6.4NE 33-K.Faulk 6.4SD 21-L.Tomlinson 6.4KC 27-L.Johnson 6.2NO 25-R.Bush 6.1GB 30-A.Green 6.0NYG 21-T.Barber 5.7MIN 29-C.Taylor 5.6SF 21-F.Gore 5.6TB 32-M.Pittman 5.3

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This is interesting but it would be helpful if we knew how they determined if the target was a legitimate pass as far as being able to catch it. RB's are often used as a dump off option and it's not unusal to see the pass laid at the feet of the RB in order for a QB to avoid a sack. Do you know if those are included in your stats? If they are then the value is somewhat diminished. If they are excepted out then it helps somewhat but only if we know why the pass was incomplete. Guess we could add the dropped pass factor in order to correlate the data better. I think you'll find Pittman to be the RB with the most drops last year.

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duaneok66 said:

Family Matters said:

duaneok66 said:

nice research, but he's below average in actually CATCHING the ball . . . he caught less than 63 percent of passes that came his way in 2006 (NFL average for RBs in 2006 was a little under 75 percent) . . .I prefer to use a stat called Yards per Target (Y/T) which combines Catch% and Yds/Catch . . . using your baseline of 40 catches minimum, here's the list . . .TEAM Name Yards/TMIN 30-M.Moore 7.4STL 39-S.Jackson 7.3JAC 32-M.Jones-Drew 7.1WAS 46-L.Betts 7.0DET 34-K.Jones 6.7IND 29-J.Addai 6.5PHI 36-B.Westbrook 6.4NE 33-K.Faulk 6.4SD 21-L.Tomlinson 6.4KC 27-L.Johnson 6.2NO 25-R.Bush 6.1GB 30-A.Green 6.0NYG 21-T.Barber 5.7MIN 29-C.Taylor 5.6SF 21-F.Gore 5.6TB 32-M.Pittman 5.3

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This is interesting but it would be helpful if we knew how they determined if the target was a legitimate pass as far as being able to catch it. RB's are often used as a dump off option and it's not unusal to see the pass laid at the feet of the RB in order for a QB to avoid a sack. Do you know if those are included in your stats? If they are then the value is somewhat diminished. If they are excepted out then it helps somewhat but only if we know why the pass was incomplete. Guess we could add the dropped pass factor in order to correlate the data better. I think you'll find Pittman to be the RB with the most drops last year.

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footballoutsiders.com tracks targets according to NFL official game logs . . . I know what you are talking about (with regard to sack avoidance) , but you could say the same for any RB . . .

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Family Matters said:

But you still need dropped passes in order to know what this is telling us. Without that it's not very useful.

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SSOG said:

Family Matters said:

But you still need dropped passes in order to know what this is telling us. Without that it's not very useful.

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That's not true at all. Imagine two WRs- one of them runs a perfect route, has the ball hit him in the hands, and drops it. The second one runs entirely the wrong route, the QB throws the ball where the WR is supposed to be, and it gets picked off. Only the first WR got credited with a drop, but which WR had the worse play?Imagine two RBs. Let's say one of them is in the flat when the QB rushes a horrible pass to him. He turns back to see the ball already in the air, twists around like a contortionist, and manages to miraculously get two hands on the ball... but fails to secure it. Now the second RB never even bothers looking back and gets hit in the back of the helmet with the ball. Once again, only the first RB is credited with a drop, despite the fact that the second RB made the worse play.There are other situations, too- if a player gets poor separation, he'll have few drops because the DB will defense a lot of passes against him, instead. If a player has poor vision, he'll have few drops, because he'll short-arm a lot of balls. As you can see, drops are really such an overrated statistic. All they measure is how good a player is at securing a ball that hits him square in his hands- it completely ignores all of the effort it takes to get the ball into the hands in the first place.All RBs have elements outside their control impacting their numbers... but all RBs have the *SAME* elements, and over time, all of those breaks even out. If Larry Johnson had a low catch%, there are a number of good explanations for it. One such explanation is that he has bad hands, or runs bad routes. The explanation I believe is that he tends to run deeper routes than other RBs (deeper routes = lower percentage passes). The reason I like that explanation is that it also conveniently explains his stellar ypc, and the simplest explanation is usually the correct one.Another RB who I think was in a similar situation was Tiki Barber, who spent a lot more time downfield than other RBs. Everyone agrees that he's an exceptional receiving RB. In 2004, he averaged a stellar 11.1 yards per reception... but only had a 66% catch%. The way that he was used resulted in a lower catch%... but it also resulted in a higher ypc.

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SSOG said:

Family Matters said:

But you still need dropped passes in order to know what this is telling us. Without that it's not very useful.

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That's not true at all. Imagine two WRs- one of them runs a perfect route, has the ball hit him in the hands, and drops it. The second one runs entirely the wrong route, the QB throws the ball where the WR is supposed to be, and it gets picked off. Only the first WR got credited with a drop, but which WR had the worse play?Imagine two RBs. Let's say one of them is in the flat when the QB rushes a horrible pass to him. He turns back to see the ball already in the air, twists around like a contortionist, and manages to miraculously get two hands on the ball... but fails to secure it. Now the second RB never even bothers looking back and gets hit in the back of the helmet with the ball. Once again, only the first RB is credited with a drop, despite the fact that the second RB made the worse play.There are other situations, too- if a player gets poor separation, he'll have few drops because the DB will defense a lot of passes against him, instead. If a player has poor vision, he'll have few drops, because he'll short-arm a lot of balls. As you can see, drops are really such an overrated statistic. All they measure is how good a player is at securing a ball that hits him square in his hands- it completely ignores all of the effort it takes to get the ball into the hands in the first place.All RBs have elements outside their control impacting their numbers... but all RBs have the *SAME* elements, and over time, all of those breaks even out. If Larry Johnson had a low catch%, there are a number of good explanations for it. One such explanation is that he has bad hands, or runs bad routes. The explanation I believe is that he tends to run deeper routes than other RBs (deeper routes = lower percentage passes). The reason I like that explanation is that it also conveniently explains his stellar ypc, and the simplest explanation is usually the correct one.Another RB who I think was in a similar situation was Tiki Barber, who spent a lot more time downfield than other RBs. Everyone agrees that he's an exceptional receiving RB. In 2004, he averaged a stellar 11.1 yards per reception... but only had a 66% catch%. The way that he was used resulted in a lower catch%... but it also resulted in a higher ypc.

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SSOG said:

Family Matters said:

But you still need dropped passes in order to know what this is telling us. Without that it's not very useful.

Click to expand...

That's not true at all. Imagine two WRs- one of them runs a perfect route, has the ball hit him in the hands, and drops it. The second one runs entirely the wrong route, the QB throws the ball where the WR is supposed to be, and it gets picked off. Only the first WR got credited with a drop, but which WR had the worse play?Imagine two RBs. Let's say one of them is in the flat when the QB rushes a horrible pass to him. He turns back to see the ball already in the air, twists around like a contortionist, and manages to miraculously get two hands on the ball... but fails to secure it. Now the second RB never even bothers looking back and gets hit in the back of the helmet with the ball. Once again, only the first RB is credited with a drop, despite the fact that the second RB made the worse play.There are other situations, too- if a player gets poor separation, he'll have few drops because the DB will defense a lot of passes against him, instead. If a player has poor vision, he'll have few drops, because he'll short-arm a lot of balls. As you can see, drops are really such an overrated statistic. All they measure is how good a player is at securing a ball that hits him square in his hands- it completely ignores all of the effort it takes to get the ball into the hands in the first place.All RBs have elements outside their control impacting their numbers... but all RBs have the *SAME* elements, and over time, all of those breaks even out. If Larry Johnson had a low catch%, there are a number of good explanations for it. One such explanation is that he has bad hands, or runs bad routes. The explanation I believe is that he tends to run deeper routes than other RBs (deeper routes = lower percentage passes). The reason I like that explanation is that it also conveniently explains his stellar ypc, and the simplest explanation is usually the correct one.Another RB who I think was in a similar situation was Tiki Barber, who spent a lot more time downfield than other RBs. Everyone agrees that he's an exceptional receiving RB. In 2004, he averaged a stellar 11.1 yards per reception... but only had a 66% catch%. The way that he was used resulted in a lower catch%... but it also resulted in a higher ypc.

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Hammerage said:

SSOG said:

Family Matters said:

But you still need dropped passes in order to know what this is telling us. Without that it's not very useful.

Click to expand...

That's not true at all. Imagine two WRs- one of them runs a perfect route, has the ball hit him in the hands, and drops it. The second one runs entirely the wrong route, the QB throws the ball where the WR is supposed to be, and it gets picked off. Only the first WR got credited with a drop, but which WR had the worse play?Imagine two RBs. Let's say one of them is in the flat when the QB rushes a horrible pass to him. He turns back to see the ball already in the air, twists around like a contortionist, and manages to miraculously get two hands on the ball... but fails to secure it. Now the second RB never even bothers looking back and gets hit in the back of the helmet with the ball. Once again, only the first RB is credited with a drop, despite the fact that the second RB made the worse play.There are other situations, too- if a player gets poor separation, he'll have few drops because the DB will defense a lot of passes against him, instead. If a player has poor vision, he'll have few drops, because he'll short-arm a lot of balls. As you can see, drops are really such an overrated statistic. All they measure is how good a player is at securing a ball that hits him square in his hands- it completely ignores all of the effort it takes to get the ball into the hands in the first place.All RBs have elements outside their control impacting their numbers... but all RBs have the *SAME* elements, and over time, all of those breaks even out. If Larry Johnson had a low catch%, there are a number of good explanations for it. One such explanation is that he has bad hands, or runs bad routes. The explanation I believe is that he tends to run deeper routes than other RBs (deeper routes = lower percentage passes). The reason I like that explanation is that it also conveniently explains his stellar ypc, and the simplest explanation is usually the correct one.Another RB who I think was in a similar situation was Tiki Barber, who spent a lot more time downfield than other RBs. Everyone agrees that he's an exceptional receiving RB. In 2004, he averaged a stellar 11.1 yards per reception... but only had a 66% catch%. The way that he was used resulted in a lower catch%... but it also resulted in a higher ypc.

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The statement above that Larry tends to run deeper routes made me try to find some YAC data for Larry and of course I had no idea where to find it . So I Googled for an hour or so and found an article that was comparing YAC data over the first 6 weeks for some players. Top 10 YAC players Name Team Position YAC yards YAC yards per catch Larry Johnson KC RB 284 14.2 Kevin Jones DET RB 255 10.2 Brian Westbrook PHI RB 252 12.6 Reggie Bush NO RB 226 6.6 Greg Jennings GB WR 178 8.9 Steven Jackson STL RB 175 9.7 Frank Gore SF RB 172 9.1 Anquan Boldin ARI WR 171 6.1 LaDainian Tomlinson SD RB 165 8.7 Ladell Betts WAS RB 163 10.2 Easy to note that Larry topped the list over the first 6 weeks. Over this period of time he had 25 catches for 329 yards or 13.1 yards/catch. The fact that his YAC is on average higher than his yards/catch indicates to me that he actually had many short passes or a good amount of catches that start behind the line of scrimage. This is somewhat scewed by his longest catch of 78 yards but on the play by play reporting it says it was a short right pass which means probably would have been 0-2 yards if he had been caught immediately. From this data (although somwhat limited) I am not convinced that he benefited from running longer routes than any other RB last year he just had some excellent runs after the catch (78, 27 and 25 yards were his longest over that stretch) as he was acting as an outlet for Huard (see below). The other interesting info this lead to is that he actually had more than half of his catches in the first 6 games which correlated to Huard taking over indicating to me that he was a huge outlet. After that he tailed off dramatically at the end of Huard's reighn and after Green took back over. He put up 3 zeros for receptions after Green took back over. Don't know what that means for this year but if he has a rookie QB again he may see more than his average number of catches.

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Family Matters said:

You make some good points. The reality is there numerous factors that go into evaluating players performance. From a FF perspective we all usually look at the bottom line when evaluating. I'm more interested in the 3 year avg of over 10 YPC that is higher than every back I could find for 3 years. If he's not the highest then he certainly is 1 of the highest. The point being is that it's clear to me that he's one of the better pass catching backs in the NFL based on actual results. And actual results id the final baromator IMO. All that other stuff is fun but not very useful.So when I evaluate RB's especially in PPR leagues, I pay special attention to what they do catching the ball. Faulk was as good an overall back as there has ever been and becuae of that I did everything I could to get him on my team. It helped me win a lot of championships. LT is another guy that can do what Faulk did. It's becoming more apparent that LJ is another guy capable of producing as an overall RB. I just don't think people have paid much attention to that part of his game.

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