Well that's certainly not true. Yes, the odds might not be any worse. But the things that people typically look at (mainly historical NFL stats) are worthless, so it will be harder for most people to pick the right rookies. It takes more work and requires different skills. So statistically it's not harder, but for someone who has spent a lot of time building up the skillset to select the right vets, that wont necessarily translate over to picking the right rooks. I think that's why people often undervalue rookies because they feel out of their comfort zone spending a relatively high pick on 'an unproven talent' (i.e. someone without the NFL stats that the drafter is used to using to project).
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
Tefertiller's "drafting rookies is a losing proposition" (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter SSOG
- Start date
SSOG
Moderator
MFL has ADP for previous seasons. Click this link and then replace the "2008" in the URL with whatever year you want ADP data for. It goes back as far as 1999, but the ADP from old seasons like that is based on a smaller sample size.
Obviously it's not hard to project rookies, since everyone is so good at it. It might be more time-intensive than projecting veterans, or it might be more uncomfortable than projecting veterans, or it might be more _________ than projecting veterans, but it certainly isn't more DIFFICULT if people are able to do it with a much higher degree of accuracy.
