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Tefertiller's "drafting rookies is a losing proposition"


SSOG

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I skimmed through this thread fairly quickly, it is a very interesting topic and a good debate. Thanks to Tefertiller and SSOG for this discussion.

I guess the I learned from this discussion that:

1) Rookies are riskier typicaly than their advertised ADP, unless you are some kind of oracle that knows the right rookie to choose.

2) Rookies should fall into the early middle rounds to capture their intrisic value for the risk that is invested. Sounds prudent.

3) You are allowed to ignore (2) if (1) applies.

1) is incorrect. Rookies appear to be less risky than their advertised ADP, relative to non-rookies. Choosing the right rookie isn't any more difficult than choosing the right veteran.
Well that's certainly not true. Yes, the odds might not be any worse. But the things that people typically look at (mainly historical NFL stats) are worthless, so it will be harder for most people to pick the right rookies. It takes more work and requires different skills. So statistically it's not harder, but for someone who has spent a lot of time building up the skillset to select the right vets, that wont necessarily translate over to picking the right rooks. I think that's why people often undervalue rookies because they feel out of their comfort zone spending a relatively high pick on 'an unproven talent' (i.e. someone without the NFL stats that the drafter is used to using to project).
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Is there a list or site somewhere that has player's ADP for previous seasons?

MFL has ADP for previous seasons. Click this link and then replace the "2008" in the URL with whatever year you want ADP data for. It goes back as far as 1999, but the ADP from old seasons like that is based on a smaller sample size.

Well that's certainly not true. Yes, the odds might not be any worse. But the things that people typically look at (mainly historical NFL stats) are worthless, so it will be harder for most people to pick the right rookies. It takes more work and requires different skills. So statistically it's not harder, but for someone who has spent a lot of time building up the skillset to select the right vets, that wont necessarily translate over to picking the right rooks. I think that's why people often undervalue rookies because they feel out of their comfort zone spending a relatively high pick on 'an unproven talent' (i.e. someone without the NFL stats that the drafter is used to using to project).

Obviously it's not hard to project rookies, since everyone is so good at it. It might be more time-intensive than projecting veterans, or it might be more uncomfortable than projecting veterans, or it might be more _________ than projecting veterans, but it certainly isn't more DIFFICULT if people are able to do it with a much higher degree of accuracy.
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