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How To Prosper From The Stupidity of Others (1 Viewer)

'bigunreal said:
You guys are too funny. The man love for Ray Rice is hilarious. I guess I hit a nerve with the "fat" comment. Sorry, but he looks fat to me. He certainly doesn't look like any classical ideal of an athlete. If he's not your husband, why would you become so outraged? If someone called a player I admire- say DeAngelo Williams- fat, I surely wouldn't be offended. No one's calling youfat.

As for the decidedly non-fat Ray Rice, he has managed 14 CAREER TDs, or one more than the "bust" Hillis had in his first season as a starter. Again, you guys go ahead and draft Rice as the #5 RB, or whatever he is in ADP at this point. That's a joke- he has not been, is not now, and will never be in the same category with the true top backs. And I will expect the bold poster who proclaimed that Rice will have a better season than Jamal Charles to come back to this forum at the end of the season and post both their stats. Barring injury, and the further head-scratching lunacy of Todd Haley, this will never happen. Charles is the most talented back in the league, bar none, and will outproduce Rice even with far fewer touches.
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If you read part of my post you would have deduced my argument for Rice immediatelly, its clear you value the most inconsistent statistic in football more than I do, I on the other hand value ANY consistency in football, Mighty Mouse and MJD are two of the MOST consistent backs in football, cant blame a player for a team decision. If I wanted to waste your and my time all I would have to do is qualify Jamaal Charles success by saying "Yeah hes really good, against the worst teams they played in '09 and the softest schedule in the NFL in '10" but im not a jackass, oh wait.
'bigunreal said:
As I noted, fantasy football, at least in terms of winning championships, is largely luck. Those week 16 and 17 games simply are a crap shoot, because the best players often don't play, and you need the best players in order to get there. I feel confident, for instance, that if we'd had our championship games in wee 14, say, in all the leagues I've been in, that I would have won twice as many championships.
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This is your opinion, many including myself would disagree. Every teams composition is similar but different in that they all are comprised of a few studs and a lot of chaff.
'bigunreal said:
I'll address a few points. Yes, Frank Gore is overrated. I value TDs more than the rest of you, I guess. Let's look at two players- Gore and Peyton Hillis. Last season, in his first as a starter, Hillis had more rushing yards than Gore has EVER had, except for one season- 2006. Hillis had 13 total TDs, a figure Gore has matched ONE time in his illustrious career. He had one huge yardage season, but only scored 9 total TDs that year. He has had ONE double digit TD season in his career. If you think this is the work of a top back, then go ahead and draft him ahead of mulitple backs who will perform better than him. If Hillis is given the opportunity, he will outproduce Gore by a good margin this year. Yet, the "experts," and thus most on this forum, feel Hillis is going to slide. Why? In his only season as a starter, he produced better overall numbers (yards and TDs) than Gore-who you claim is not overrated- ever has. How does this kind of thinking work? Gore- not overrated, Hillis- will not produce.
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No one has said Hillis will not produce, the closest thing ive ever even heard similar to that was "he had such a good season, its a safe bet that he wouldnt be able to put up such large numbers again" which im more inclined to agree with than "herp durr Gore is consistantly top 10, thats clearly not as impressive as one season of good procution". Its like saying RIGHT NOW that Foster is a safer bet than ADP.
'bigunreal said:
If you don't think Dwayne Bowe is underrated, then how do you explain why the top TD producer last season is not even in the top 5 WRs (and I've seen him ranked at #20 or worse in some lists)? I would take him over non-TD machine Andre Johnson any day. If he isn't being undervalued, I don't know what the meaning of the word is.
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We get it, you think differently. Consistency will beat out explosiveness over an extended period of time, everytime.

'bigunreal said:
This is a forum, and I wanted to produce some food for thought. I don't take this stuff seriously, because so much of it is beyond my control, or the control of any fantasy owner. I can't make John Fox wake up and give DeAngelo Williams more touches (and geez, now he'll be under his wing again in Denver!) I can't make the Colts bench (or cut) the horrific Garcon and put Austin Collie outside, where he will instantly be one of the NFL's top WRs. I can't make the Bengals do the same thing with Jordan Shipley.
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Thats not what it reads like at all, it sounds like your calling out everyone on this board and everyone at FBG because they dont think similarly to you, you havent made a single counter point in this entire thread instead when faced with a counterpoint of someone else you change the subject.

'bigunreal said:
We can, however, make regular free agent moves, realize most rookie fantasy draft picks are wildly overvalued, not be afraid to trade and use our own judgment when watching thees players, instead of unquestionably following the advice of Matthew Berry and co. Again, no harm meant here, and I am sorry for using the word "stupidity' in the title of this thread. I posted my real record in real leagues- I could have claimed I've won at least one league all 21 years. I think I've done well going against the grain. All any of us can do is make the playoffs, and put our teams in a position to win. After that, it's largely luck.
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I agree with this, there is a luck factor, but the only way to reduce the variance is by increasing your edge, the most popular way of doing this is by following trends. You can think outside the box all you want, but what your proposing is gambling./longest post ever.

 
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Chris Ivory is more talented than Mark Ingram?

You expect Bowe to sustain his absurdly high TD numbers, when TD's are famously random for even the elite WR's from year to year? And you expect Rice to continue putting up paltry TD numbers, even if he gets GL carries?

Some of your ideas would have merit, if not for the rampant douchebaggery sprinkled throughout your posts. Hell, they still do.

But judging players who have consistently produced based upon their "non-classic-athlete" body types (ignoring the fact that they are still world-class athletes), as well as some of your other contrarian viewpoints (like those noted above), make you very hard to take seriously.

 
He obviously isn't called 'bigunreal' for nothing.

"The man love for Ray Rice is hilarious. I guess I hit a nerve with the "fat" comment. Sorry, but he looks fat to me. He certainly doesn't look like any classical ideal of an athlete. If he's not your husband, why would you become so outraged? If someone called a player I admire- say DeAngelo Williams- fat, I surely wouldn't be offended. No one's calling youfat."

Calling him fat is what's hilarious. The reason for the backlash on that comment is not because of love....it's because it's so absurdly ridiculous :rolleyes:

 
You guys are reflecting the mainstream view that is shared by the vast majority of fantasy football owners. That's cool- if this kind of groupthink wasn't out there, I'd have no theories to pontificate. I'm used to reading lists where all the players I like are undervalued, year after year. It makes it easier to get the players you want. I used to get angry about it, but it actually works to my advantage that most owners will draft Ray Rice before Jamal Charles, or Andre Johnson before Calvin Johnson.

I am not saying I have a special genius for fantasy football. I apologized for using the word "stupidity," and acknowledge that a great deal of this is luck, especially come playoff time. You can help your teams make the playoffs, however, by making informed decisions, and not blindly going with the crowd. That was my primary point. As for the crack about being able to find the right reserves in championship games, I've already explained how I won with guys like Matt Jones, Ron Dayne and Chris Fua'Mala-Wala. Do I have to mention more truly obscure players that led me to championships? How about Eric Zeier? How about that great Super Bowl backfield I had in '94- Lewis Tillman and Leroy Thompson? You guys probably don't even know who they were. The point is- those kinds of unknowns are typically the players who lead teams to championships. Obviously, it's a total crap shoot when you pick them up just for that purpose and hope they have a great game for you.

While I won with that Tillman-Thompson backfield, and Tony Martin as my top WR in the championship game, I also failed to even reach the championship game the year I shattered the league scoring record and came within a few points of being undefeated. There is a lot of luck involved, and you can only minimize it so much. I'm just giving you guys my opinions, which are clearly different from what's usually posted here. Laugh and scoff, pin it for after the season, whatever. I won't disappear if my points are proven to be drastically wrong. I'm confident in my views, and they are based on the best evidence I have at this moment, plus my basic instincts and experience playing fantasy football. I've been wrong before, maybe I'll be all wrong about this. Maybe Ray Rice really isn't fat. But I will win, or go down, with the guys I like.

 
If you ever get tired of the Shark Pool, I recommend hopping over to the Free For All for some lively debate on politics, religion, dating, etc.

 
'bigunreal said:
You guys are reflecting the mainstream view that is shared by the vast majority of fantasy football owners. That's cool- if this kind of groupthink wasn't out there, I'd have no theories to pontificate. I'm used to reading lists where all the players I like are undervalued, year after year. It makes it easier to get the players you want. I used to get angry about it, but it actually works to my advantage that most owners will draft Ray Rice before Jamal Charles, or Andre Johnson before Calvin Johnson.

I am not saying I have a special genius for fantasy football. I apologized for using the word "stupidity," and acknowledge that a great deal of this is luck, especially come playoff time. You can help your teams make the playoffs, however, by making informed decisions, and not blindly going with the crowd. That was my primary point. As for the crack about being able to find the right reserves in championship games, I've already explained how I won with guys like Matt Jones, Ron Dayne and Chris Fua'Mala-Wala. Do I have to mention more truly obscure players that led me to championships? How about Eric Zeier? How about that great Super Bowl backfield I had in '94- Lewis Tillman and Leroy Thompson? You guys probably don't even know who they were. The point is- those kinds of unknowns are typically the players who lead teams to championships. Obviously, it's a total crap shoot when you pick them up just for that purpose and hope they have a great game for you.

While I won with that Tillman-Thompson backfield, and Tony Martin as my top WR in the championship game, I also failed to even reach the championship game the year I shattered the league scoring record and came within a few points of being undefeated. There is a lot of luck involved, and you can only minimize it so much. I'm just giving you guys my opinions, which are clearly different from what's usually posted here. Laugh and scoff, pin it for after the season, whatever. I won't disappear if my points are proven to be drastically wrong. I'm confident in my views, and they are based on the best evidence I have at this moment, plus my basic instincts and experience playing fantasy football. I've been wrong before, maybe I'll be all wrong about this. Maybe Ray Rice really isn't fat. But I will win, or go down, with the guys I like.
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Just like most everyone else.Very groupthinky of you.

 
'bigunreal said:
You guys are reflecting the mainstream view that is shared by the vast majority of fantasy football owners. That's cool- if this kind of groupthink wasn't out there, I'd have no theories to pontificate.

[...]

I'm just giving you guys my opinions, which are clearly different from what's usually posted here. Laugh and scoff, pin it for after the season, whatever. I won't disappear if my points are proven to be drastically wrong. I'm confident in my views, and they are based on the best evidence I have at this moment, plus my basic instincts and experience playing fantasy football. I've been wrong before, maybe I'll be all wrong about this. Maybe Ray Rice really isn't fat. But I will win, or go down, with the guys I like.
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But aren't your "underrated" players mainstream as well? What are your drafts look like? If I take your underrated player-list, your draft would look like (if I take the ADP from 12 team FFC)(just as an example):1. J.Charles (ADP 1.04)

2. P.Hillis (2.11)

3. D.Bowe (3.08)

4. DeA.Williams (5.02)

...

7. J.Knox

9. J.Cutler/E.Manning

Looks like a normal mainstream ff-team to me but I'm just a rookie, so what is your non-mainstream approach? What's the big idea behind your topic? I'm open for new ideas to gain an advantage in my leagues, so how can I prosper?

For me as a fantasy rookie P.Hillis and D.Bowe aren't underrated at all - Hillis going in the 2nd and D.Bowe in the 3rd Round.

An underrated-player label would suggest that you should pick him up a round earlier, right? So Hillis would be a 1st and Bowe a 2nd Rounder to you? Why?

And if you wanted to go against the establishment (of all the experts on and outside this board) why are you backing down? If it's your opinion you should stand to it and defend it. Make good statements and arguments for your idea.

Like: don't go after the rookies like everyone else, take proven guys who could help you now.

btw: how does his (Rice) fat body affect his play? Many players are "fat" (look at the T and LB) and doing a hell of a job. Isn't a RB supposed to be big, fast and strong? Weight+speed = Power.

 
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'Tjaden said:
'bigunreal said:
You guys are reflecting the mainstream view that is shared by the vast majority of fantasy football owners. That's cool- if this kind of groupthink wasn't out there, I'd have no theories to pontificate.I'm just giving you guys my opinions, which are clearly different from what's usually posted here. Laugh and scoff, pin it for after the season, whatever. I won't disappear if my points are proven to be drastically wrong. I'm confident in my views, and they are based on the best evidence I have at this moment, plus my basic instincts and experience playing fantasy football. I've been wrong before, maybe I'll be all wrong about this. Maybe Ray Rice really isn't fat. But I will win, or go down, with the guys I like.
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But aren't your "underrated" players mainstream as well? What are your drafts look like? If I take your underrated player-list, your draft would look like (if I take the ADP from 12 team FFC)(just as an example):1. J.Charles (ADP 1.04)2. P.Hillis (2.11)3. D.Bowe (3.08)4. DeA.Williams (5.02)...7. J.Knox9. J.Cutler/E.ManningLooks like a normal mainstream ff-team to me but I'm just a rookie, so what is your non-mainstream approach? What's the big idea behind your topic? I'm open for new ideas to gain an advantage in my leagues.Like the mainstream said or asked you, what are the arguments behind your thinking? E.g. Why are you so down on AJ? Are you seeing something that 100% of the "experts" are not seeing? (Didn't see a list without AJ in the 1st Rd)For me as a fantasy rookie P.Hillis and D.Bowe aren't underrated at all - Hillis going in the 2nd-3rd Round and Bowe in the 3rd Round. An "underrated"-player suggest that you would pick him up a round earlier, right? So Hillis would be a 1st and Bowe a 2nd Rounder to you? Why? Isn't it more likely that D.Bowe will score less than 10TD this season (like the seasons before)And if you wanted to go against the establishment (of all the experts on and outside this board) why are you backing down? If it's your opinion you should stand to it and defend it. Make good statements and arguments for your idea.
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I'm pretty sure this entire thread revolves around TDs and who scores them.
 
'bigunreal said:
You guys are too funny. The man love for Ray Rice is hilarious. I guess I hit a nerve with the "fat" comment. Sorry, but he looks fat to me. He certainly doesn't look like any classical ideal of an athlete. If he's not your husband, why would you become so outraged? If someone called a player I admire- say DeAngelo Williams- fat, I surely wouldn't be offended. No one's calling youfat.
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Who expressed outrage? I was just surprised that someone that knows more about football than the "glorified gym teachers" that are hired as headcoaches would make a statement that was so blatantly wrong. The fact that you still stick by that statement after being shown evidence otherwise speaks volumes about you.As to your original premise, why it may not be going over too well here is that most people spending time here this offseason are not blindly following the "experts" and most certainly not Matt Berry. Also unless you are just trying to get a rise out of people for fun, your tone is a little over the top - which doesn't really bother me (I just find it funny) as long as the info is good. You put a broad array or players out there, which gives you a good chance to be wrong about some and right about others. Some of the people you think are under-rated, don't really seem to be. Show me a list that doesn't have Jamal Charles in the top 5? Dwayne Bowe seems to be a third round pick from what I've gathered. Hillis, I agree with you, but those "doubters" raise valid points.

I only do one re-draft, and in that league probably like 35% just print out lists and draft off of it (perhaps not completely blindly though). Guess what? Those people win sometimes, it's not like those rankings lack merit completely. These "experts" have the same info as all of us and know the game. Plenty I agree with, plenty I don't.

You also fail to realize people play in different formats - you favor TDs heavily. In more performance based leagues (and in ppr leagues) guys like Ray Rice, Frank Gore, MJD Brandon Marshall and Andre Johnsons are given the credit that they deserve. P.S. TDs, especially for WRs are a very volitile stat.

If you read through this board, you'll see that everyone has players they like and those that they don't - there are some levels of "group think", but there's also just things that allow you to "think".

 
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Interesting thread in that folks are arguing under and over rated with no prescribed scoring rules and no ADP. I think the schtick is purposeful and added only toad fuel to the theme of group think. Enjoyed the thread and suggest the audible crew interview this guy and lhucks.

 
'Dr. Octopus said:
'bigunreal said:
You guys are too funny. The man love for Ray Rice is hilarious. I guess I hit a nerve with the "fat" comment. Sorry, but he looks fat to me. He certainly doesn't look like any classical ideal of an athlete. If he's not your husband, why would you become so outraged? If someone called a player I admire- say DeAngelo Williams- fat, I surely wouldn't be offended. No one's calling youfat.
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Who expressed outrage? I was just surprised that someone that knows more about football than the "glorified gym teachers" that are hired as headcoaches would make a statement that was so blatantly wrong. The fact that you still stick by that statement after being shown evidence otherwise speaks volumes about you.As to your original premise, why it may not be going over too well here is that most people spending time here this offseason are not blindly following the "experts" and most certainly not Matt Berry. Also unless you are just trying to get a rise out of people for fun, your tone is a little over the top - which doesn't really bother me (I just find it funny) as long as the info is good. You put a broad array or players out there, which gives you a good chance to be wrong about some and right about others. Some of the people you think are under-rated, don't really seem to be. Show me a list that doesn't have Jamal Charles in the top 5? Dwayne Bowe seems to be a third round pick from what I've gathered. Hillis, I agree with you, but those "doubters" raise valid points.

I only do one re-draft, and in that league probably like 35% just print out lists and draft off of it (perhaps not completely blindly though). Guess what? Those people win sometimes, it's not like those rankings lack merit completely. These "experts" have the same info as all of us and know the game. Plenty I agree with, plenty I don't.

You also fail to realize people play in different formats - you favor TDs heavily. In more performance based leagues (and in ppr leagues) guys like Ray Rice, Frank Gore, MJD Brandon Marshall and Andre Johnsons are given the credit that they deserve.

If you read through this board, you'll see that everyone has players they like and those that they don't - there are some levels of "group think", but there's also just things that allow you to "think".
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:goodposting: you are really spouting off in the wrong place. Nobody here in the middle of July during a lock-out subscribes to your "groupthink" idea you keep accusing people of (while saying you are too smart and wise to fall for it :rolleyes: )

No one here listens to Matthew Berry or the "mainstream experts". This isn't a mainstream expert forum. You should have really posted this somewhere like ESPN or Foxsports and then all the sheep would bow to the wise expert who has won a couple championships in 20 years. That is really what you want isn't it?

And please mention luck again as the reason you have so many 2nd place finishes. You don't see any of us bragging about how this is our 18 season and have been winning 2 or 3 of our 6 leagues for the last 10 years as well as cashing in 4 or 5 total.

 
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LOL @ a guy talking about "group think" who has Jacoby Ford in underrated list. Dude is on every "breakout WR" list out there.

 
'bigunreal said:
You guys are reflecting the mainstream view that is shared by the vast majority of fantasy football owners. That's cool- if this kind of groupthink wasn't out there, I'd have no theories to pontificate. I'm used to reading lists where all the players I like are undervalued, year after year. It makes it easier to get the players you want. I used to get angry about it, but it actually works to my advantage that most owners will draft Ray Rice before Jamal Charles, or Andre Johnson before Calvin Johnson. I am not saying I have a special genius for fantasy football. I apologized for using the word "stupidity," and acknowledge that a great deal of this is luck, especially come playoff time. You can help your teams make the playoffs, however, by making informed decisions, and not blindly going with the crowd. That was my primary point. As for the crack about being able to find the right reserves in championship games, I've already explained how I won with guys like Matt Jones, Ron Dayne and Chris Fua'Mala-Wala. Do I have to mention more truly obscure players that led me to championships? How about Eric Zeier? How about that great Super Bowl backfield I had in '94- Lewis Tillman and Leroy Thompson? You guys probably don't even know who they were. The point is- those kinds of unknowns are typically the players who lead teams to championships. Obviously, it's a total crap shoot when you pick them up just for that purpose and hope they have a great game for you. While I won with that Tillman-Thompson backfield, and Tony Martin as my top WR in the championship game, I also failed to even reach the championship game the year I shattered the league scoring record and came within a few points of being undefeated. There is a lot of luck involved, and you can only minimize it so much. I'm just giving you guys my opinions, which are clearly different from what's usually posted here. Laugh and scoff, pin it for after the season, whatever. I won't disappear if my points are proven to be drastically wrong. I'm confident in my views, and they are based on the best evidence I have at this moment, plus my basic instincts and experience playing fantasy football. I've been wrong before, maybe I'll be all wrong about this. Maybe Ray Rice really isn't fat. But I will win, or go down, with the guys I like.
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Please stop!! I'm turning red for you. You're at the wrong site for this. Try your luck at CBS.com, Yahoo.com, or ESPN.com. I wouldn't doubt it if most at this site could eat you for lunch in their leagues.
 
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The stats on a lot of these guys tell a much different story. I would go into specifics but your post is so far off base that it would take all day, and I don't think enough people took this seriously to make it worth it

 
Geez, now you guys are bad mouthing my career record. Hey, is 8 championships in 21 years that bad? Adjusting for all the luck involved in those championship weeks, I think it's pretty good. But then again, I could tweak reality and claim I won five in a row or something, like some wildly clever poster did earlier. Your criticism kind of hurts my self-esteem, much like Ray Rice must feel when someone calls him fat.

I don't know how anyone can make a list without putting players on it that everyone has heard of. And of course even I may agree with mainstream thinking once in a while, as witnessed by my jumping on the Jacoby Ford bandwagon. I don't think what I was saying is all that complicated. Bowe and Hillis are undervalued; Bowe should be one of the first, if not the first, WR off the board in at least standard scoring leagues. Thus, he is a value pick where he is being drafted. The same goes for Hillis- he should be a top 10 RB pick in all formats, and often isn't. Again, he represents value.

On the other hand, Ray Rice as the #4 RB represents terribly bad value, in my view, based upon how he can be expected to perform compared to the other top RBs. The same thing goes for Andre Johnson; I don't think he is the top WR by any means, and drafting him as high as he generally is being drafted represents awful draft strategy, imho.

If you don't think the universal nature of the responses on this thread proves my point about groupthink mentality, then there's really nothing else I can say. Again, I don't know why I care about this, as my unconventional way of looking at things usually results in me getting the kind of players I like.

 
'bigunreal said:
I don't know how anyone can make a list without putting players on it that everyone has heard of. And of course even I may agree with mainstream thinking once in a while, as witnessed by my jumping on the Jacoby Ford bandwagon. I don't think what I was saying is all that complicated. Bowe and Hillis are undervalued; Bowe should be one of the first, if not the first, WR off the board in at least standard scoring leagues. Thus, he is a value pick where he is being drafted. The same goes for Hillis- he should be a top 10 RB pick in all formats, and often isn't. Again, he represents value.
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Probably not.Why?

Regression to the mean.

http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/The-hands-of-time.html

 
Do you guys even look at the stats? Bowe had more TD receptions than any other WR in the NFL last season, and had over 1000 yards. So, other than in ppr, it certainly could be argued that he is the #1 WR in the league. I've seen online rankings where Bowe is in the 20s! Obviously, Hillis had top 5 stats for RBs in all formats, so why wouldn't he be ranked in the top 10? Again, he is sometimes ranked in the 20s in these online lists.

There is a clear disconnect between their production and their average ranking.

 
'bigunreal said:
Do you guys even look at the stats? Bowe had more TD receptions than any other WR in the NFL last season, and had over 1000 yards. So, other than in ppr, it certainly could be argued that he is the #1 WR in the league. I've seen online rankings where Bowe is in the 20s! Obviously, Hillis had top 5 stats for RBs in all formats, so why wouldn't he be ranked in the top 10? Again, he is sometimes ranked in the 20s in these online lists. There is a clear disconnect between their production and their average ranking.
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I'll bite, since I'm done working and about to leave anyway. Bowe won't even sniff 15 TDs this year. New OC, more competition for touches, a tougher schedule and an isanely high rate of TD:Catches for a guy in a run-first offense . . . doesn't sound like a recipe for a repeat performance to me. And that doesn't even count the top rate stupidity he's shown throughout his career that could easily land him in an NFL Time-Out at any point.Hillis, well, I agree. I'm taking him in any draft I can and loving the value.
 
It's called a statistical anomaly.

Bowe and Cassel also dominated garbage time statistics last year, not something you can expect from a run first team consistently. Cassel and Bowe both put up huge season skewing numbers in that game they got down 35-0 to Denver in the first. Take out the 3 game stretch that started that game and his season is more in line with his previous 3 years. Not to mention the 5 game stretch to end the season where he averaged 2.8 receptions, 55 yards and scored once. Oops, I just did. He's super talented, no doubt. But as stated multiple times in this thread already, TDs are the most dynamic of WR stats and prone to wild swings, even among the elite WR. The catches and yards combined with a run first mentality don't stack up to consistent top 3 rankings, IMO.

 
FWIW - Ray Rice is not fat. He hooked up with my girlfriend's roommate a few times at Rutgers - the dude is ripped.

 
I generally think it's unfair to allow someone's non-fantasy related posts to effect my opinion of them as a fantasy owner...but I'm willing to make an exception to my rule and state that I'm beyond convinced that you're just an all-around crackpot.

I kind of like it.

 
'bigunreal said:
Do you guys even look at the stats? Bowe had more TD receptions than any other WR in the NFL last season, and had over 1000 yards. So, other than in ppr, it certainly could be argued that he is the #1 WR in the league. I've seen online rankings where Bowe is in the 20s! Obviously, Hillis had top 5 stats for RBs in all formats, so why wouldn't he be ranked in the top 10? Again, he is sometimes ranked in the 20s in these online lists. There is a clear disconnect between their production and their average ranking.
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The disconnect is in simple-mindedly expecting that past results are a promise of future results. One must dig a lot deeper than that and understand how and why last year's stats evolved, and what factors have and have not changed since last year. Only then can one come up with reasoned expectations about the coming year. That's more work than most are willing to do. Much easier to look at 2010 rankings and move a guy up or down a few notches. But that's one reason why most guys are mediocre at this game.
 
To the poster whose girlfriend's roommate hooked up with Ray Rice at Rutgers; that must have been really exciting for you. I guess my eyes are really bad, because he looks fat to me.

To the people who keep saying "you can't" look at the stats from the previous season; you sound like Howard Cosell used to, when he came up with the "ignore those numbers" line when he was constantly promoting Joe Namath and other statistically challenged New York athletes. Obviously, statistics do matter, or there is no rational way to analyze performance. Otherwise, it becomes a shouting match between drunk white fans, hoisting their beers at each other and shouting, "no, man, I've seen him, and he's the best!"

Bowe is certainly not a one year anomaly. He had a fine season a few years ago, and was a high draft pick. Since I'm not an "expert," I might be tempted to say that he finally began to show his enormous potential last season. There is absolutely no logical reason to assume his performance was a fluke. Sure, he might not score 15 TDs again, but my money is on him scoring more than the beloved Andre Johnson, who has never scored more than 10 in any season.

But getting back to the weight issue, since you guys are in denial about Rice's hefty stature, do you think Jerome Bettis was fat? Is Leron McClain fat? Lagarette Blount? How about Jamarcus Russell? Just curious.

 
'bigunreal said:
To the people who keep saying "you can't" look at the stats from the previous season; you sound like Howard Cosell used to, when he came up with the "ignore those numbers" line when he was constantly promoting Joe Namath and other statistically challenged New York athletes. Obviously, statistics do matter, or there is no rational way to analyze performance. Otherwise, it becomes a shouting match between drunk white fans, hoisting their beers at each other and shouting, "no, man, I've seen him, and he's the best!"
Click to expand...
No one said anything of the sort. You seem to read what you wish to read. I think you ought to go back and read my post again until you are able to comprehend it. Your Cosell answer, and the rest of your answer by the way, makes you look like a fool.
Bowe is certainly not a one year anomaly. He had a fine season a few years ago, and was a high draft pick. Since I'm not an "expert," I might be tempted to say that he finally began to show his enormous potential last season. There is absolutely no logical reason to assume his performance was a fluke. Sure, he might not score 15 TDs again, but my money is on him scoring more than the beloved Andre Johnson, who has never scored more than 10 in any season.
Click to expand...
Absolutely no logical reason? According to you I guess. Keep your blinders on if it makes you feel better my friend. Be happy. Print off last year's final stats, go draft off of it, knock yourself out. just don't start threads talking about others' stupidity.

 
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Can any of you interpret correctly? Is English a second language on this board?

I don't blindly follow stats, and certainly don't rely on any lists, other than my own, which I make up following my own instincts. Follow the crowd, and listen to the herd's advice, which is based on the same kind of evidence than I or any other anonymous poster on an internet forum has. Stay away from Hillis, but expect the plodding Lagarette Blount to be a top producer. Avoid Dwayne Bowe. Draft Rice very, very high. Blow a #1 pick on Andre Johnson or Michael Vick.

I bow to the collective intelligence of this board, which is remarkable for its diversity of thought, creativity and civility.

 
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Just go read the Marshall and Barry over Emmitt threads and you can easily see how easy it is to prosper over large groups of people in certain situations.

 
'bigunreal said:
Can any of you interpret correctly? Is English a second language on this board?
Click to expand...
Im sorry, but in this entire thread, you have by far the worst typed english ive seen coming from someone trying to make a serious argument.
'bigunreal said:
I don't blindly follow stats, and certainly don't rely on any lists, other than my own, which I make up following my own instincts. Follow the crowd, and listen to the herd's advice, which is based on the same kind of evidence than I or any other anonymous poster on an internet forum has. Stay away from Hillis, but expect the plodding Lagarette Blount to be a top producer. Avoid Dwayne Bowe. Draft Rice very, very high. Blow a #1 pick on Andre Johnson or Michael Vick. I bow to the collective intelligence of this board, which is remarkable for its diversity of thought, creativity and civility.
Click to expand...
I dont know how you can put yourself on such a high pedestal and be so ignorant at the same time. Overgeneralize statements, thats how I would describe half of all your posts, the rest just being terrible. Id say most people that come to FBGs are knowledgeable enough to take the information that is fed through the various mediums to everyone and use our personal knowledge and experiences to make our own predictions. Some people dont and thats fine, a majority of those people are also homers and will favor one player over another simply because they want them to succeed.If all you wanted to do was make bold predictions then go nuts, its one of my favorite things to do in football, but at least try and have some sort of reasoning so if confronted you could say how or why you thought something.Bold Predictions:-The Chiefs win less than 7 games this year.-The Browns win more than 6 games this year.-The Bears win their division again.-The Lions and Packers are both wildcard teams-Mike Vick finishes outside of the top 8 QBs-Jets finish third in their divisionMan that was easy and I have reasoning behind all of these predictions, which I can safely say all go against the grain.
 
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Groupthink is such a great word. I don't remember these forums being like this before. So much negativity and "follow the heard" mentality. I think as this site grows, the more it gets watered down by owners who think they know their fantasy because Gil Brandt or TMR told them to draft Arian Foster last year after his Week 3 PreSeason game. I'd be a little more impressed with the owners who drafted him back in July while Ben Tate was healthy and Steve Slaton was still in the picture, but anyway...

I love how people overreact to the overvalued comment. If Ray Rice's ADP is 4th or 5th, and you believe he's a 6th or 7th, by definition that means OVERVALUED. While I definitely disagree with A LOT of names on your list, I'm on board with the concept that I use faulty popular opinion to my advantage. I'd love to play in deep money leagues with some of the people on this site.

 
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'bigunreal said:
Can any of you interpret correctly? Is English a second language on this board?
Click to expand...
Entiendo muy bien Inglés. Tú eres el idiota que se llama grasa Ray Rice, entre otras cosas. Esperar a obtener llamó para ello.
 
I am patiently waiting for bigunreal's perfect draft write-up. Based on current ADP, I wonder what his team would look like.

He might draft a kicker in the 6th round.

 
'sspunisher said:
Groupthink is such a great word. I don't remember these forums being like this before. So much negativity and "follow the heard" mentality. I think as this site grows, the more it gets watered down by owners who think they know their fantasy because Gil Brandt or TMR told them to draft Arian Foster last year after his Week 3 PreSeason game. I'd be a little more impressed with the owners who drafted him back in July while Ben Tate was healthy and Steve Slaton was still in the picture, but anyway...

I love how people overreact to the overvalued comment. If Ray Rice's ADP is 4th or 5th, and you believe he's a 6th or 7th, by definition that means OVERVALUED. While I definitely disagree with A LOT of names on your list, I'm on board with the concept that I use faulty popular opinion to my advantage. I'd love to play in deep money leagues with some of the people on this site.
Click to expand...
Those would be the people on this site :thumbup: And ADP of 4 or 5 when you think a guy is 6th or 7th does not equate to the massive overvalued-ness that the OP implies. Technically, you're correct. But in the spirit of the discussion and the nuances involved, you're completely wrong.

Following the "herd" is not really something I see, necessarily. A lot of the guys here are just that good, and so what ends up happening is people like CP, Go Deep, myself, F&L...all end up independently drawing very similar conclusions. For instance, on Bowe: He got a ton (most) of his stats in garbage time with his team down multiple scores. I don't think that happens again. Therefore, I think Bowe doesn't do as well. Not to mention I don't think he repeats his TD numbers (they're so volatile year-to-year) so I keep him where a 1000+ 7+ TD guy goes...the 3rd round.

On the other hand, with Andre Johnson, you have a guy who doesn't seem to score a ton of TDs...but in reality he catches around 100 passes and gets around 1500 yards year in and year out (or he's injured and that's what his pace is). I want that consistency. He still has no 2nd WR on his team to threaten his looks, his stats didn't take a hit from the exceptional run game, he's a target monster...the TDs may or may not come, but he doesn't need them to come. He's a very safe pick to finish as a WR1, because yards are highly correlated from season to season. Same reasoning follows on Ray Rice: yards are highly correlated, he's very consistent, and he catches passes and gets rec yards as well.

The guy's opinions all make a lot of sense in a league that's very TD heavy or even TD only...but he hasn't said that.

 
'bigunreal said:
Do you guys even look at the stats? Bowe had more TD receptions than any other WR in the NFL last season, and had over 1000 yards. So, other than in ppr, it certainly could be argued that he is the #1 WR in the league. I've seen online rankings where Bowe is in the 20s! Obviously, Hillis had top 5 stats for RBs in all formats, so why wouldn't he be ranked in the top 10? Again, he is sometimes ranked in the 20s in these online lists. There is a clear disconnect between their production and their average ranking.
Click to expand...
I think everyone on this board looks at the stats. In my league (normal 1 PPR that is the most common scoring system), Bowe was WR #9 last year despite scoring a ton of TDs at 17.0 ppg. Roddy White had 19.3, Andre Johnson had 19.2, Hakeem Nicks, 18.7, etc. Even in standard scoring that doesn't take into account the extra 25-40 catches the top guys get, you are still ignoring yardage. Prior to last year when Andre Johnson missed a couple games, he had back-to-back seasons of approximately 1570 receiving yards. Even in the best year of Bowe's 4 year career, he only put up 1160 yards. Even in standard scoring, assuming that Bowe repeats his career year, that means you're probably looking at AJ probably getting 400 yards more than Bowe, which is 40 points. AJ averages about 9 TDs per season. So even in standard scoring you need Bowe to score at least 16 TDs every year to equal Andre. I'm willing to bet Bowe doesn't average 16 TDs per season the next few years....so AJ will likely continue to score more fantasy points than Bowe....
 
'Instinctive said:
'sspunisher said:
Groupthink is such a great word. I don't remember these forums being like this before. So much negativity and "follow the heard" mentality. I think as this site grows, the more it gets watered down by owners who think they know their fantasy because Gil Brandt or TMR told them to draft Arian Foster last year after his Week 3 PreSeason game. I'd be a little more impressed with the owners who drafted him back in July while Ben Tate was healthy and Steve Slaton was still in the picture, but anyway...

I love how people overreact to the overvalued comment. If Ray Rice's ADP is 4th or 5th, and you believe he's a 6th or 7th, by definition that means OVERVALUED. While I definitely disagree with A LOT of names on your list, I'm on board with the concept that I use faulty popular opinion to my advantage. I'd love to play in deep money leagues with some of the people on this site.
Click to expand...
Those would be the people on this site :thumbup: And ADP of 4 or 5 when you think a guy is 6th or 7th does not equate to the massive overvalued-ness that the OP implies. Technically, you're correct. But in the spirit of the discussion and the nuances involved, you're completely wrong.

Following the "herd" is not really something I see, necessarily. A lot of the guys here are just that good, and so what ends up happening is people like CP, Go Deep, myself, F&L...all end up independently drawing very similar conclusions. For instance, on Bowe: He got a ton (most) of his stats in garbage time with his team down multiple scores. I don't think that happens again. Therefore, I think Bowe doesn't do as well. Not to mention I don't think he repeats his TD numbers (they're so volatile year-to-year) so I keep him where a 1000+ 7+ TD guy goes...the 3rd round.

On the other hand, with Andre Johnson, you have a guy who doesn't seem to score a ton of TDs...but in reality he catches around 100 passes and gets around 1500 yards year in and year out (or he's injured and that's what his pace is). I want that consistency. He still has no 2nd WR on his team to threaten his looks, his stats didn't take a hit from the exceptional run game, he's a target monster...the TDs may or may not come, but he doesn't need them to come. He's a very safe pick to finish as a WR1, because yards are highly correlated from season to season. Same reasoning follows on Ray Rice: yards are highly correlated, he's very consistent, and he catches passes and gets rec yards as well.

The guy's opinions all make a lot of sense in a league that's very TD heavy or even TD only...but he hasn't said that.
Click to expand...
Trust me man, I don't doubt that there's a lot of fantasy knowledge on here. But all the knowledgeable owners are having their opinions watered down by the plethora of mediocre owners with very loud opinions. Then there's the knowledegable owners who choose to focus on belittling other posters rather than being helpful. I've grown to really dislike these forums b/c I've yet to get into ONE thread where someone isn't attacking someone else's opinion in a disrespectful way. I only stick around b/c while sifting through all the garbage I do find some useful information here and there.As for Bowe, again I don't disagree with you but many don't realize that he's been getting stats in garbage time his whole career. It's become common for Bowe to go into the 4th quarter with insignificant stats, and then put up huge numbers in the last 5 minutes of a game. Anyone who had Bowe or Tony G when Tyler Thigpen was throwing to them three years ago knows what I'm talking about.

While I agree with some and disagree with a lot of the players OP mentioned, his philosophy is dead on. Just has to work a bit on his research and also realize this is called the Shark Pool for a reason, everyone attacks your opinion any single chance they get, and they won't do it respectfully either.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
'sspunisher said:
'Instinctive said:
'sspunisher said:
Groupthink is such a great word. I don't remember these forums being like this before. So much negativity and "follow the heard" mentality. I think as this site grows, the more it gets watered down by owners who think they know their fantasy because Gil Brandt or TMR told them to draft Arian Foster last year after his Week 3 PreSeason game. I'd be a little more impressed with the owners who drafted him back in July while Ben Tate was healthy and Steve Slaton was still in the picture, but anyway...

I love how people overreact to the overvalued comment. If Ray Rice's ADP is 4th or 5th, and you believe he's a 6th or 7th, by definition that means OVERVALUED. While I definitely disagree with A LOT of names on your list, I'm on board with the concept that I use faulty popular opinion to my advantage. I'd love to play in deep money leagues with some of the people on this site.
Click to expand...
Those would be the people on this site :thumbup: And ADP of 4 or 5 when you think a guy is 6th or 7th does not equate to the massive overvalued-ness that the OP implies. Technically, you're correct. But in the spirit of the discussion and the nuances involved, you're completely wrong.

Following the "herd" is not really something I see, necessarily. A lot of the guys here are just that good, and so what ends up happening is people like CP, Go Deep, myself, F&L...all end up independently drawing very similar conclusions. For instance, on Bowe: He got a ton (most) of his stats in garbage time with his team down multiple scores. I don't think that happens again. Therefore, I think Bowe doesn't do as well. Not to mention I don't think he repeats his TD numbers (they're so volatile year-to-year) so I keep him where a 1000+ 7+ TD guy goes...the 3rd round.

On the other hand, with Andre Johnson, you have a guy who doesn't seem to score a ton of TDs...but in reality he catches around 100 passes and gets around 1500 yards year in and year out (or he's injured and that's what his pace is). I want that consistency. He still has no 2nd WR on his team to threaten his looks, his stats didn't take a hit from the exceptional run game, he's a target monster...the TDs may or may not come, but he doesn't need them to come. He's a very safe pick to finish as a WR1, because yards are highly correlated from season to season. Same reasoning follows on Ray Rice: yards are highly correlated, he's very consistent, and he catches passes and gets rec yards as well.

The guy's opinions all make a lot of sense in a league that's very TD heavy or even TD only...but he hasn't said that.
Click to expand...
Trust me man, I don't doubt that there's a lot of fantasy knowledge on here. But all the knowledgeable owners are having their opinions watered down by the plethora of mediocre owners with very loud opinions. Then there's the knowledegable owners who choose to focus on belittling other posters rather than being helpful. I've grown to really dislike these forums b/c I've yet to get into ONE thread where someone isn't attacking someone else's opinion in a disrespectful way. I only stick around b/c while sifting through all the garbage I do find some useful information here and there.As for Bowe, again I don't disagree with you but many don't realize that he's been getting stats in garbage time his whole career. It's become common for Bowe to go into the 4th quarter with insignificant stats, and then put up huge numbers in the last 5 minutes of a game. Anyone who had Bowe or Tony G when Tyler Thigpen was throwing to them three years ago knows what I'm talking about.

While I agree with some and disagree with a lot of the players OP mentioned, his philosophy is dead on. Just has to work a bit on his research and also realize this is called the Shark Pool for a reason, everyone attacks your opinion any single chance they get, and they won't do it respectfully either.
Click to expand...
Yeah the philosophy is correct...but isn't that because his philosophy boils down to this? "Draft undervalued guys, avoid overvalued guys." THAT'S EVERYONE's PHILOSOPHY. And he was an arrogant OP who did little research and went ad hominem on players...he deserved to be attacked. It was LHUCKS-ian. You think you could just pop on somewhere, tell everyone they're stupid WHILE BEING WRONG, and not expect to get attacked for it? Damn.

Also, on a completely unrelated note- I had Thigpen and Bowe that year and rode Thiggy to a title. It was awesome. Fond memories :) And the beauty of FantasyFootball demonstrated: I never would remember who the hell Tyler Thigpen is if not for that. Now I always will!

 
'Instinctive said:
'sspunisher said:
'Instinctive said:
'sspunisher said:
Groupthink is such a great word. I don't remember these forums being like this before. So much negativity and "follow the heard" mentality. I think as this site grows, the more it gets watered down by owners who think they know their fantasy because Gil Brandt or TMR told them to draft Arian Foster last year after his Week 3 PreSeason game. I'd be a little more impressed with the owners who drafted him back in July while Ben Tate was healthy and Steve Slaton was still in the picture, but anyway...

I love how people overreact to the overvalued comment. If Ray Rice's ADP is 4th or 5th, and you believe he's a 6th or 7th, by definition that means OVERVALUED. While I definitely disagree with A LOT of names on your list, I'm on board with the concept that I use faulty popular opinion to my advantage. I'd love to play in deep money leagues with some of the people on this site.
Click to expand...
Those would be the people on this site :thumbup: And ADP of 4 or 5 when you think a guy is 6th or 7th does not equate to the massive overvalued-ness that the OP implies. Technically, you're correct. But in the spirit of the discussion and the nuances involved, you're completely wrong.

Following the "herd" is not really something I see, necessarily. A lot of the guys here are just that good, and so what ends up happening is people like CP, Go Deep, myself, F&L...all end up independently drawing very similar conclusions. For instance, on Bowe: He got a ton (most) of his stats in garbage time with his team down multiple scores. I don't think that happens again. Therefore, I think Bowe doesn't do as well. Not to mention I don't think he repeats his TD numbers (they're so volatile year-to-year) so I keep him where a 1000+ 7+ TD guy goes...the 3rd round.

On the other hand, with Andre Johnson, you have a guy who doesn't seem to score a ton of TDs...but in reality he catches around 100 passes and gets around 1500 yards year in and year out (or he's injured and that's what his pace is). I want that consistency. He still has no 2nd WR on his team to threaten his looks, his stats didn't take a hit from the exceptional run game, he's a target monster...the TDs may or may not come, but he doesn't need them to come. He's a very safe pick to finish as a WR1, because yards are highly correlated from season to season. Same reasoning follows on Ray Rice: yards are highly correlated, he's very consistent, and he catches passes and gets rec yards as well.

The guy's opinions all make a lot of sense in a league that's very TD heavy or even TD only...but he hasn't said that.
Click to expand...
Trust me man, I don't doubt that there's a lot of fantasy knowledge on here. But all the knowledgeable owners are having their opinions watered down by the plethora of mediocre owners with very loud opinions. Then there's the knowledegable owners who choose to focus on belittling other posters rather than being helpful. I've grown to really dislike these forums b/c I've yet to get into ONE thread where someone isn't attacking someone else's opinion in a disrespectful way. I only stick around b/c while sifting through all the garbage I do find some useful information here and there.As for Bowe, again I don't disagree with you but many don't realize that he's been getting stats in garbage time his whole career. It's become common for Bowe to go into the 4th quarter with insignificant stats, and then put up huge numbers in the last 5 minutes of a game. Anyone who had Bowe or Tony G when Tyler Thigpen was throwing to them three years ago knows what I'm talking about.

While I agree with some and disagree with a lot of the players OP mentioned, his philosophy is dead on. Just has to work a bit on his research and also realize this is called the Shark Pool for a reason, everyone attacks your opinion any single chance they get, and they won't do it respectfully either.
Click to expand...
Yeah the philosophy is correct...but isn't that because his philosophy boils down to this? "Draft undervalued guys, avoid overvalued guys." THAT'S EVERYONE's PHILOSOPHY. And he was an arrogant OP who did little research and went ad hominem on players...he deserved to be attacked. It was LHUCKS-ian. You think you could just pop on somewhere, tell everyone they're stupid WHILE BEING WRONG, and not expect to get attacked for it? Damn.

Also, on a completely unrelated note- I had Thigpen and Bowe that year and rode Thiggy to a title. It was awesome. Fond memories :) And the beauty of FantasyFootball demonstrated: I never would remember who the hell Tyler Thigpen is if not for that. Now I always will!
Click to expand...
Yea the Chiefs were definitely entertaining that year. That's when I first noticed Jamaal Charles. As for this thread...it was pretty clear to me from OP's 1st and 2nd post that he was trying to be helpful, even though his post was very opinionated. But as bad as some thought his post was, many of the responses were clearly much worse.

 
'Instinctive said:
'sspunisher said:
Groupthink is such a great word. I don't remember these forums being like this before. So much negativity and "follow the heard" mentality. I think as this site grows, the more it gets watered down by owners who think they know their fantasy because Gil Brandt or TMR told them to draft Arian Foster last year after his Week 3 PreSeason game. I'd be a little more impressed with the owners who drafted him back in July while Ben Tate was healthy and Steve Slaton was still in the picture, but anyway...

I love how people overreact to the overvalued comment. If Ray Rice's ADP is 4th or 5th, and you believe he's a 6th or 7th, by definition that means OVERVALUED. While I definitely disagree with A LOT of names on your list, I'm on board with the concept that I use faulty popular opinion to my advantage. I'd love to play in deep money leagues with some of the people on this site.
Click to expand...
Those would be the people on this site :thumbup: And ADP of 4 or 5 when you think a guy is 6th or 7th does not equate to the massive overvalued-ness that the OP implies. Technically, you're correct. But in the spirit of the discussion and the nuances involved, you're completely wrong.

Following the "herd" is not really something I see, necessarily. A lot of the guys here are just that good, and so what ends up happening is people like CP, Go Deep, myself, F&L...all end up independently drawing very similar conclusions. For instance, on Bowe: He got a ton (most) of his stats in garbage time with his team down multiple scores. I don't think that happens again. Therefore, I think Bowe doesn't do as well. Not to mention I don't think he repeats his TD numbers (they're so volatile year-to-year) so I keep him where a 1000+ 7+ TD guy goes...the 3rd round.

On the other hand, with Andre Johnson, you have a guy who doesn't seem to score a ton of TDs...but in reality he catches around 100 passes and gets around 1500 yards year in and year out (or he's injured and that's what his pace is). I want that consistency. He still has no 2nd WR on his team to threaten his looks, his stats didn't take a hit from the exceptional run game, he's a target monster...the TDs may or may not come, but he doesn't need them to come. He's a very safe pick to finish as a WR1, because yards are highly correlated from season to season. Same reasoning follows on Ray Rice: yards are highly correlated, he's very consistent, and he catches passes and gets rec yards as well.

The guy's opinions all make a lot of sense in a league that's very TD heavy or even TD only...but he hasn't said that.
Click to expand...
This is what I mean about the general consensus regarding an overrated player like Andre Johnson vs. his actual production. Johnson has had over 1500 yards twice in his career. He has averaged 1145 yards per season throughout his career. He has 50 total TDs in his career, which averages out to barely over SIX per season. You call that kind of production the top WR in the league? He's never had more than 9 TDs in a season. Even in ppr, he's had over 100 receptions THREE times in eight seasons. Welker has as many 100 reception seasons, in far less playing time. As for the fit and trim Mr. Rice, the disparity between reality and perception is just as stark. I'll be kind and not include his rookie, TD-less season. He has averaged 1274 yards rushing and 629 yards receiving in the last two seasons, which is impressive. However, he fell in every category last year, which makes the continuous love for him, and constant speculation that he will improve on those numbers, even more curious. He has averaged 7 total TDs a season, which is obviously well below any comparably ranked RB. Going against the grain, I would suggest that Rice seems to have been a one-year wonder, yardage wise, and is unlikely to ever repeat those numbers, which were overhyped to begin with. I recall how disappointed his owners were in him last season, yet he retains the irrational love of most fantasy owners (and, of course, the delusion that he isn't fat). That pathetic ypc last season ought to worry his owners and prospective owners, not cause them to become even more infatuated with him.

Bowe, on the other hand, should logically be seen as a player who finally hit his stride last year, and is on the way up. Instead, I hear strangely reasoned arguments that his numbers came in "garbage time" and cannot be repeated. This is reminiscent of the arguments some have made over the years about Barry Sanders and other RBs who relied on big plays; "If you take away that 80 yard run, he only had 45 yards on 20 carries." Fantasy players shouldn't care how the points are produced; Corey Dillon's entire Bengals career was based on garbage yardage and TDs, when they were way behind and the opponent was in a prevent defense, for example. Bowe had over 1000 yards and 7 TDs two seasons ago, and a decent rookie year, so he is not a one-year fluke by any means. Logically, we should dismiss the first season with Haley, when he screwed with Bowe's mind, benching him, etc., and his production suffered as a result, and instead consider last season the real beginning of a great career (he's still only 26).

Anyhow, I'd like to thank sspunisher for being fair in his comments.

 
You see Bowe's 15 TDs last year and think he's being undervalued. I see his 16 TOTAL TDs in the 3 previous seasons and think "show me again" before I blow a first or second round pick on you. Also, the 1000 yard/7 TD second season that was his second best would have put him at WR 15-18 position last year, depending on scoring. You very well might be right, he could be criminally underrated and ready to explode like 2007 Moss. You could also blow a high draft pick on a guy that produces like a 5th rounder. Nobody knows until they play the game. Trying to communicate like you know otherwise prompted a lot of the responses in this thread, IMO.

 
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