BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Good email Q&A column from Kyle Meinke:
Q: I happen to have both Andrew Luck and Matthew Stafford on my fantasy team, which this week feels like a difficult choice. Who has a better day Sunday? -- Ryan J. Smith
A: I'll be up front with you. I don't play fantasy football. I know that a lot of other reporters do -- most, I believe, actually -- but I find I just don't have the bandwidth to deal with fantasy stuff when I have 1,734 other things going on this time of year.
Having said that, I'd absolutely start Stafford over Luck. No question. I think Luck is actually in for a long day. He's got three guys on that offensive line who have never played their current positions as a pro. He's got a banged up guard in Jack Mewhort. He's got a rookie centerin Ryan Kelly. And Kelly is going up against Haloti Ngata and Tyrunn Walker, who are experienced and talented enough to turn those mistakes into a busted pocket.
And that's saying nothing of Ezekiel Ansah, who dropped more quarterbacks than everyone not named J.J. Watt or Khalil Mack last year. He's gotten better every year in the league, which has me wondering these days, what's he capable of this year?
Detroit's front seven is its strength. The Colts' offensive line is inexperienced and banged up. I see this as a massive advantage for the Lions, and expect aggressive defensive coordinator Teryl Austin to carpet bomb Luck as much as he can.
Stafford, conversely, has it the other way. His offense is at full strength, while Indy is down a starting corner (Vontae Davis), safety (Clayton Geathers) and linebacker (Sio Moore), plus a couple reserves. And they sucked defensively to begin with. As long as Detroit's offensive line holds up, I think Stafford has a monster debut while targeting the likes of Marvin Jones, Golden Tate, Theo Riddick and Eric Ebron.
Q: Who's the weakest starter and who's the strongest non-starter? -- Adin Kram
A: Interesting question. I guess it kind of depends how you define "weakest." Are you talking the worst starter? Because I'd probably go with center Travis Swanson. Or are you talking about the starter who carries the most risk of losing his job? Because then I'd probably say strong safety Tavon Wilson, who has never been a full-time starter and didn't overtake Rafael Bush for the gig until the penultimate preseason game. Plus, Bush has done it before. So if Wilson struggles at all, he could get the quick hook.
As for the best non-starter, no doubt it has to be Theo Riddick. He caught 80 passes out of the backfield last season, which set a club record for a tailback and tied Danny Woodhead for the league lead at the position. And the Lions just inked him to a three-year extension worth $12.75 million, which places him 13th on the highest-paid tailbacks list. That tells you just how much they think he'll play in Jim Bob Cooter's offense.
Q: Is there any reason to be optimistic that the Lions can run the ball this year? -- @lstats810
A: Long answer: Sure. Ameer Abdullah is good, and no longer a rookie. Dwayne Washington seems promising. The run blocking seemed to improve as training camp wore on. But I'm still skeptical, especially about the line. And if those guys aren't any good, then it won't matter all that much how good Abdullah is. I think the rushing attack still finishes outside the top 20, to be honest.
Short answer:
Bill Clinton: It Depends on what the meaning of the word is is
Q: What stadium are you looking forward to visit? -- Ferdinand
A: The only joint on this year's schedule that I haven't hit is NRG Stadium in Houston. So I guess that one, because I always like seeing new stuff. But Jerry World is just a spectacle unto itself -- plus, the food is the bomb -- so I'm on board with returning there. Though it does come over Christmas. Sorry, Mom.
As for cities, though, New Orleans is one of my favorites in this fair country of ours. People always talk about New York and L.A. and San Francisco and Miami, when they're talking about great U.S. cities. But damn it, New Orleans is just delightful. The music, the food, the drink, the party. It's got a bit of everything, including some pretty cool history and the nicest people. I'll have a beignet for y'all.
Better make that two.
Q: Evaluate the o-line. We invested top 3 picks in all 5 starters moving left to right across the line. Should be dominate, why not? -- Colin McNutt
A: I've written this before, and I'll do it again. I believe there were a lot of issues plaguing the line in recent years, but one of them certainly was the scheme. You'd be hard-pressed to find a single guy in that room who actually believed in what Joe Lombardi was doing up front. I've heard stories. They're not good.
So, overhauling the scheme up front is a big, natural step in the right direction. That process began last year, and I give Jim Bob Cooter a ton of credit for the small, but meaningful changes he made to get better results almost immediately out of that group. For example, Matthew Stafford was hit 64 times in the first half of the season, and 41 times in the second half. That's a 35.9 percent decline.
Which is huge, for a quarterback who completed 75.2 percent of his passes when he was clean last year, and 48.3 percent when he was pressured.
And although the running game finished last in the league, I saw itty-bitty steps in the right direction there too. Ameer Abdullah, for example, averaged 4.8 yards per carry in the final seven games of the season. Part of that was his own natural rookie development, of course, but I thought there were more rushing lanes too. And you'd expect them to take another step forward after they had a full offseason to make the wholesale changes they could not mid-season last year.
But having said all that, I still wonder if there is a talent issue at a couple of those positions. Travis Swanson was awful last year, and I've seen only modest improvements from him so far this year. Laken Tomlinson was OK last year, and I'm not sure if he's looked any better at all this year. Those are the weak links, and figuring out how to get more out of those guys, or at least scheming to hide their weaknesses, is important.
Riley Reiff has looked good at right tackle, Taylor Decker is improving rapidly at left tackle, and Larry Warford is starting to look like his old self at right guard. Those are the strengths of the line at this point.
Q: In four words, how do you feel about Colin Kaepernick, Trump, cats and crossfit? -- Justin Rogers
A: Nobody likes you, Benedict.
Q: Can I still ask if Ebron is a bust?-- Porbandar123
A: Sure. But you'll get my stock response too. He struggled as a rookie, no doubt, and so much of it was his own doing. He was immature, and he'd be the first guy to tell you that. (If he would talk to you, which in my experience, has been hit and miss.)
But here's how I like to think about it. He was the top tight end of his draft class, right? So let's take the top tight ends from the 10 years before his selection in 2013, average their production by year, and figure out an expectation for the position.
If you do that, his Year 1 production was slightly off pace. He had 25 catches for 248 yards and one touchdown, while the sample pool averaged 33.2 catches for 356.8 yards and 2.9 touchdowns.
Then in Year 2, Ebron about doubled his production to 47 catches for 537 yards and five touchdowns. That actually surpassed the sample pool, which averaged 45.4 catches for 480.8 yards and 4.1 touchdowns.
So the bottom line is this: I understand the Ebron hate, I do. He was taken before Odell Beckham and Aaron Donald and a bunch of guys who have blown up. He was taken too early, I get it. But none of that is on him. If you want to hate the pick, OK, but hate Martin Mayhew for it. Because Ebron is progressing right on schedule for the No. 1 tight end taken in a draft. What more could you ask of him?
Since Ebron is progressing at the average rate of our No. 1 tight ends, you might be curious to know what that sample pool did in Year 3. Those averages: 51.4 catches for 592.8 yards and 5.8 touchdowns. So that's where I'm setting the bar for Ebron this year.
Q: What kind of start would it take for you to get aboard a Lions bandwagon? -- Mike Hodges
A: A 3-1 start would be a Theo-Riddick-in-the-open-field step in the right direction. Indy is a should-win game, in my opinion, given the injury picture. I know the tendency this time of year is to pick apart the team you've followed all offseason, but the Colts are in rough shape. Detroit should win this game, and don't let anyone tell you otherwise. And the same goes for next week in the home opener against Tennessee. So do that, earn a split in the Green Bay/Chicago road swing, and you've set yourself up for contention.
But more than the record, I'm looking for progress from the offensive line. Teams lose games they shouldn't sometimes, and are able to bounce back. The Lions could go 2-2, for example, but if I see good things out of the offensive line, especially Taylor Decker, I'll feel much better about their chances to make a push. Because I think the defense is good enough to carry the team, and Matthew Stafford will put up points if he's given the time. It's just a matter of having the time.
Playing not to lose makes you a loser.
Divisional games are no joke. Throw out the records and perception. Just ask Arizona & Seattle about the inferior St.Louis/LA Rams the last 2 years.
