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St. Louis Bob

By St. Louis Bob,
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David Dodds

David Dodds 2,763

Posted
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Honestly I think people throw around the term "gamma squeeze" way too loosely now.

The first gamma squeeze on the first run-up happened because everyone was caught offguard to the extent that literally EVERY SINGLE call option for GME was MASSIVELY in the money.  Like I believe that week the highest call option written was $60 and GME closed Friday at over $120.

This is nothing like that.  This reminds more of an even lesser version of about two weeks ago when everyone was sure $320 was a massive gamma squeeze.  Everyone yelled about how $320 had to be defended, how the stock was going back and forth above and below it all day.  It eventually closed at $328 and....nothing.

Right now calls have been written all the way up to $800.  Open interest on calls $120 and below represents barely 35% of all open interest on GME calls, which means at $120 65% of GME calls will expire worthless.  That is extremely different than the gamma squeeze that kicked all of this off when 0% of GME calls expired worthless, and all of the 100% that had to be filled were 100%+ out of the money.  Even a few weeks ago with that $320 gamma theory 70%+ of all open calls were ITM and it didn't budge the share price at all.

Just my $.02.  GME could still moon for a variety of reasons, but I see nothing even resembling even a small gamma squeeze here, personally.

This week ended last week under $40. Sure there are some huge option contracts at $800, but 51,237 contracts come in at $120. Retail has been buying under $125. So where are these 5,123,700 shares going to come from?  

My personal opinion is there are way more people that have cost averaged into stronger diamond hands this time around. And the shares are not available. Once the shares are recalled for votes, the gig of synthetic shares is going to up.

Edited by David Dodds
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Todem

Trying to time bottoms is very hard. If you believe in the company long term I feel this price is a very strong entry point long term. Set it and forget for a while. When it doubles....take your

David Dodds

I will make a wager. If this stock hits $420.69 before this earnings call on March 31st, I will pass out 100 FBG subscriptions to the gents in the stock thread.

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ericttspikes

ericttspikes 2,783

Posted
Posted
58 minutes ago, stbugs said:

A word of caution IMHO. This is from the article:

 Merger execution risks surrounding CCIV stock have been eliminated. We now know that the value of CCIV stock is backed by the fundamental earnings power of Lucid Motors.

Operationally, Lucid Motors is where Tesla was 10 years ago — and has all the right ingredients and necessary firepower to turn into a major force in the global EV market soon.

Given the company’s long-term earnings growth potential, Lucid Motors is worth about $100 billion today. That implies a fair price for CCIV stock of over $60. Long-term, shares could soar to $400 — representing 10X upside potential from the CCIV stock price today.

If they are like Tesla 10 years ago, they aren't worth anywhere close to $100B. The merger was around $15B. Saying the company is worth $100B is basically the same as what the Nikola guy. How's that going? Also, let's put some real world numbers into play here. Tesla was not worth $100B until a little over 1 year ago, so Lucid with an 800lb gorilla competitor and a dozen more new competitors is worth Tesla of late 2019/early 2020 even though they are Tesla of 2011? That's some pretty creative accounting.

Also, they haven't even started producing cars and there's a delay: https://electrek.co/2021/02/25/lucid-motors-pushes-back-first-air-deliveries-to-second-half-of-2021/

They are well behind many big competitors in Tesla, VW/Audi, BMW, GM and Toyota. Heck, what if Nio and others already manufacturing cars outside the US decide to compete in other markets.

If you believe they can win later, that's cool, buy and hold, but this article is well borderline misleading IMHO, way past hopeful.

Yeah, execution is a huge risk. As it was with Tesla. In the end an investor has to believe in the technology and vision of the company. When I look at what Lucid has done in-house with engineering, it is amazing. It could also be so overly engineered they can never mass produce it. Their battery tech alone, carried over from years of testing on the Formula E circuit when they were called Atieva, is ahead of any mass producers in efficiency and range. Lucid also has the same desire as Tesla to be an energy storage company, their "vehicle-to-everything" strategy will allow their cars/batteries to power a home as a back-up system for example. Lucid engineered their own drivetrain that if produced at scale will be the class leader in performance and efficiency. Even their light array engineered in house is groundbreaking. These guys aren't just Frankensteining a car with shelf parts, they are creating EV 2.0. Can they pull it off? If they can't they won't be worth anything. If a person believes they can, it will be worth more in the future than today.

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Nick Vermeil

Nick Vermeil 3,578

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, General Malaise said:

Downgrading hands from Diamond level to Ruby on Bartender Moe's Scale of Mineral Hardness.  :mellow:

 

I've got Neil Diamond hands. I'm not sure what that means, but old ladies love it.   

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David Dodds

David Dodds 2,763

Posted
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ok, we got everyone who could possibly want in...you are clear to blast off. Got shares all the way down to 100. This day is working out well for what I had hoped to do. Time will tell how dumb it ends up being.

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David Dodds

David Dodds 2,763

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, rick6668 said:

I put in another buy on GME 2 hours ago at 100.  It just executed.  Not sure if I should be happy or sad...

good job mate. I got some there too.

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FreeBaGeL

FreeBaGeL 9,543

Posted
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I still only have tiny GME this time,  $85 has been major support ever since this thing kicked off if it gets there I will empty out the sports gambling accounts and buy a decent chunk with fun money.

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Bob Sacamano

Bob Sacamano 10,157

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, Sand said:

 Bought a bit of UWMC.

Oh, and that dumb ####er in WSB who bought GMED instead of GME is actually making money.  The old "monkeys throwing darts at the financial page" comes to mind.

Everybody on the planet, except two guys in Chad who store their Francs in the rotting corpse of a cheetah, has refinanced in the last year. And rates are rising. What's the bull case here?

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caustic

caustic 4,203

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Was this last week the turbulence we needed to get people to rotate back into big tech? Asking for a friend who has unhealthy amounts of AMZN and AAPL. 

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[icon]

[icon] 10,147

Posted
Posted (edited)

#### it.. grabbed a 10pk of GME @ 99 even to YOLO with you Special People.

If we moon, Mangos and Pipas for all. : 

Edited by [icon]
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ChiefD

ChiefD 19,979

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, pecorino said:

Happy to be a spectator on this one (GME, I mean). I'm definitely a scared guppy.

I bought some really good weed earlier from this guy on the internet....

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David Dodds

David Dodds 2,763

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Time for Ryan Cohen to take full control of the GME board and call all the shares back for a vote. No one is selling right now. Scared money left awhile ago.

Diamond hands here. I think I am good on number of shares. The win is likely going to capped at some crappy number. 

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stbugs

stbugs 3,494

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20 minutes ago, caustic said:

Was this last week the turbulence we needed to get people to rotate back into big tech? Asking for a friend who has unhealthy amounts of AMZN and AAPL. 

Not sure yet. I’ll take a great day if I can get it. Was up, down and now up a lot. I have 0 clue where it’s going. Probably should have bought some things in these big drops but they are so fast and not conducive to working. 

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David Dodds

David Dodds 2,763

Posted
Posted
Just now, Wild Young Billy said:

Well this is depressing,

just hold. You know this is being manipulated immensely. The shorting algo has determined this course of action makes the most sense. We wait. This gets resolved. They can call the price whatever they want right now. I am not selling at these prices. And the institutions, and Ryan Cohen, and DFV and tons of other diamond hands are not selling either.

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stbugs

stbugs 3,494

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Posted
1 hour ago, ericttspikes said:

Yeah, execution is a huge risk. As it was with Tesla. In the end an investor has to believe in the technology and vision of the company. When I look at what Lucid has done in-house with engineering, it is amazing. It could also be so overly engineered they can never mass produce it. Their battery tech alone, carried over from years of testing on the Formula E circuit when they were called Atieva, is ahead of any mass producers in efficiency and range. Lucid also has the same desire as Tesla to be an energy storage company, their "vehicle-to-everything" strategy will allow their cars/batteries to power a home as a back-up system for example. Lucid engineered their own drivetrain that if produced at scale will be the class leader in performance and efficiency. Even their light array engineered in house is groundbreaking. These guys aren't just Frankensteining a car with shelf parts, they are creating EV 2.0. Can they pull it off? If they can't they won't be worth anything. If a person believes they can, it will be worth more in the future than today.

Big risk and way more risk than Tesla had because there are so many more competitors now, including Tesla.

I think the biggest concern I have is that they will only be a niche high end player. It’s one thing to create a handful of high end things well and another to make 500k cars a year, let alone 2 million.

Betamax was a better tape than VHS. Lots of good tech they got beat out because it was too expensive for the masses or just didn’t win.

The battery seems cool and all but when Tesla has one that gets about the same distance, are they going to really have an advantage if they can’t mass produce it in a $25-35k car? Tesla didn’t jump market caps until the Model 3. It wasn’t worth much more than Lucid is right now with just the S and even the X. Tesla also didn’t have another Tesla 10 years ahead and a lot of other heavy weights back in 2012.

Investing now is not on my plan. Maybe after we see them make some cars and make them well and expand capacity without issues. Remember the manufacturing hell Tesla went through with the 3?

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David Dodds

David Dodds 2,763

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, stbugs said:

Who is this AI you are talking to?

I am guessing most hedge funds in the shorting business have algos handling all the transactions.

Shall we play a game? Computers are starting to realize that the shares are in diamond hands and they can't win their game so they have determined it makes more sense to crash the price than let it run with no shares to cover.

We have just produced the gamma squeeze. It just won't be known for a bit.

 

Edited by David Dodds
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ChiefD

ChiefD 19,979

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Posted
1 minute ago, Capella said:

Absolutely nothing I have done with gamestonk has worked so I am naturally back in for more. 
 

I want my money :rant: 

Your team has a Super Bowl ring. I have internet weed. 

 

Has nothing to do with GME, but thought it might make you feel better. 

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David Dodds

David Dodds 2,763

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I think there is no real sense in buying at this point if you have shares. But if you don't you should likely add 1 in case someone determines that fair price is $1,500 a share or something.

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Capella

Capella 31,959

Posted
Posted
Just now, ChiefD said:

Your team has a Super Bowl ring. I have internet weed. 

 

Has nothing to do with GME, but thought it might make you feel better. 

:lmao: living a blessed sports life that’s for sure. I need some of this GameStop money to pay for all the Bucs and lightning crap I’ve bought in the past few months :bag: 

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McBokonon

McBokonon 3,948

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, David Dodds said:

just hold. You know this is being manipulated immensely. The shorting algo has determined this course of action makes the most sense. We wait. This gets resolved. They can call the price whatever they want right now. I am not selling at these prices. And the institutions, and Ryan Cohen, and DFV and tons of other diamond hands are not selling either.

I mean this in the nicest way possible - but this is starting to sound like fantastical conspiracy theories.

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IC FBGCav

IC FBGCav 5,800

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, David Dodds said:

I think there is no real sense in buying at this point if you have shares. But if you don't you should likely add 1 in case someone determines that fair price is $1,500 a share or something.

Crap, just bought 300 shares.  Swear I read buy the dip.

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