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Stock Thread (15 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
identikit
Footballguy
I like that rhyme.
Thanks.
It's done the same as today in the past, with seemingly no news. Lots of times.
Or maybe I missed it then too.
McBokonon
Footballguy
Just read a very interesting article on Cramer’s web site (rev shark dude) saying that he thought that maybe the ARK funds were driving a lot of the price drops recently, which might be a good call. He even brought up my darling UPST as crushing earnings and yet being below where it was before earnings and being an ARK holding. Wondering if the massive outflows are causing pressure because so much money had poured into them during the run up.
identikit
Footballguy
identikit
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Not sure I'm understanding this correctly. Was he saying the Ark funds are exiting those positions and that is causing the price drops?
McBokonon
Footballguy
I think that when there’s a massive drop in ETF’s, they take the individual stocks with them. Happens every day, it’s why everything tends to move in tandem.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
ericttspikes
Footballguy
Revenge of the hedge funds. Just kept pressing their bets until they paid off.
So basically the short bet is that the Fed is wrong or they know they're lying? I mean, Powell already said in April that's rate increases "highly unlikely" and the Vice Chair reiterated this week. Treasury yields went up .04%? European bond yields went above zero? That doesn't seem to telegraph doomsday inflation coming soon. I have a crap ton of bonds and the yield isn't getting me excited to buy more. Still not really excited to even hold.
I think the crash of growth was the perfect storm of purposeful stoking of inflation panic (which is really demand-pull inflation), slow buying time of the year and a historic run up in growth.
Everything growthy being sold. Baby with the bathwater. A stock like OPEN has been obliterated, and is still being obliterated. If we're truly entering a period of high inflation, housing usually does well. Not to mention new home starts have to be mega expensive right now. But it's about future earnings? BNTX just saved the world and has been sold off too. Should earn a ridiculous $66 a share this year and close to $90 a share next year. So in some cases it isn't about earnings either.
Pandemic ended today in the US. Trillions of $ sloshing around. Not sure how much lower things go, but I gotta think these hedge fund jabronies will get burned at some point sooner than later. Dunno. Riding the coaster down and adding in small chunks in names I have conviction in.
So basically the short bet is that the Fed is wrong or they know they're lying? I mean, Powell already said in April that's rate increases "highly unlikely" and the Vice Chair reiterated this week. Treasury yields went up .04%? European bond yields went above zero? That doesn't seem to telegraph doomsday inflation coming soon. I have a crap ton of bonds and the yield isn't getting me excited to buy more. Still not really excited to even hold.
I think the crash of growth was the perfect storm of purposeful stoking of inflation panic (which is really demand-pull inflation), slow buying time of the year and a historic run up in growth.
Everything growthy being sold. Baby with the bathwater. A stock like OPEN has been obliterated, and is still being obliterated. If we're truly entering a period of high inflation, housing usually does well. Not to mention new home starts have to be mega expensive right now. But it's about future earnings? BNTX just saved the world and has been sold off too. Should earn a ridiculous $66 a share this year and close to $90 a share next year. So in some cases it isn't about earnings either.
Pandemic ended today in the US. Trillions of $ sloshing around. Not sure how much lower things go, but I gotta think these hedge fund jabronies will get burned at some point sooner than later. Dunno. Riding the coaster down and adding in small chunks in names I have conviction in.
A bit more here. I like BABA long term especially now that it is near its 52-week low. I may buy some long term (think 1 year) in the money calls on Friday.
Agree here. The multiple is is really low for a growth company like this with practically zero debt. A screaming buy for a long term investor at these levels.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
I read it that outflows from the fund itself are causing the fund to reduce positions to make redemption. This, in turn, creates more selling pressure to the names in their fund.
This one of those things, like Softbank and r/wsb piling into long dated tech options last August, that makes sense in retrospect.
Unfortunately, inflow/outflow data like this is always lagged.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
McBokonon
Footballguy
Nick Vermeil
Footballguy
Stonks are a nut punch
Fidelity or TD?
Gamma Squeeze baby
Fidelity or TD?
Gamma Squeeze baby
culdeus
Footballguy
I mean the end of stimmy monies was predictable. There is so much money now in consumer hands, spending is crazy, everywhere you look houses are going for over list, you can't get a boat for a year out. People are paying near list for used campers. I see this as a buying opportunity.
Caveman33
Footballguy
Thanks for mentioning BABA. I took a quick look and agree that it is a solid opportunity. I don't know enough about the downside risk to feel comfortable holding shares but I put in an order for a few Jun18 $230 calls at 1.65.
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McBokonon
Footballguy
The only real downside risk is just general China nonsense - probably the only reason it’s so cheap. This thing looks ready to go for its next big leg up, too. I have a lot of it in my Emerging Markets fund in my 401k plus it’s in a general large cap fund. If I wasn’t already #### deep in SE I’d jump in, too.
I just don’t get it all. I should have bought more UPST yesterday but the ridiculous movements every day are crazy. I know I’m having a nice day but dear lord I couldn’t imagine being a day trader. Maybe this ideal for that but man it’s so damn volatile which makes it harder since I’ve been way busier lately. I don’t know how you guys do the trading every day.
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
You can keep your stocks
Crazy crypto currency
God gave me vodka
Crazy crypto currency
God gave me vodka
ericttspikes
Footballguy
I like that play, the options seem cheap given where BABA was recently. I may tail you. However, I was thinking of a safer play with less potential reward, June 2022 calls with $160 strike price for roughly $60. I'm afraid that June 2021 is just too soon to see that kind of move, but if you get one explosive day, you could easily double-up, sell half your position and free roll the rest. Bold, and cheaply priced on a solid non-dividend paying name--my kind of speculation.
General Malaise
Footballguy
JAA
Footballguy
JAA
Footballguy
If there is so much cash around, why wouldnt we see much more stock by-back? Heck, why wouldnt some companies go private if they feel the market isnt treating them well?
I think the answer is everyone really knows they are still over valued, that the market is over valued.
urbanhack
Fight The Power!
McBokonon
Footballguy
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
General Malaise
Footballguy
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
ericttspikes
Footballguy
You mean growthy tech stocks haven't been buying back shares? I thought stock buy backs were way down last year when the pandemic hit and started back up this year.
Apple had a huge buyback in Q1. Darden, BAC, Johnson Controls, Ebay, Office Depot, Yum and Walmart recently announced buy backs. Doesn't mean things are or aren't over valued, but I'm pretty sure companies have resumed buying back shares this year. I thought I read that stock buy backs were up 30% this year over last year, but maybe not. Not really sure.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Really nice day. Almost everything I own is green. SKIN defying recent SPAC trends. 
