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Stock Thread (18 Viewers)

BassNBrew said:
Very impressive for a young guy like you.  Congrats DP.  May your Amabzons keep pace with inflation.
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:lol:  We stay very diversified. The only truly outsized position is WFC due to all I acquired since last spring and the recent rally pushing it to 10%.  

It was mostly about saving early and often. Having a partner on the same page of financial independence (my wife usually saves more as % of income) really helps too.

 
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Capella said:
Re: Hgen - I’ve seen a few people say no company allowed to apply for an EUA has been subsequently denied it. The fda just won’t let you apply. I can’t verify that, but it’s possible and at least makes sense. 
 

Also, 466,000 shares shorted today, so there’s your reason for the stock fall. 
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I just don't understand this market.  Almost 1% chose to go short on the 3rd biggest day in gaining access to revenue generation.  That makes even less sense than owning Amazon.

 
BassNBrew said:
I just don't understand this market.  Almost 1% chose to go short on the 3rd biggest day in gaining access to revenue generation.  That makes even less sense than owning Amazon.
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Isn't it a thing for hedge funds / institutions to short sell a stock, in a massive way, purposely causing the stock price to drop.... 

The drop in stock price causes individual share holders to react and sell causing more price decay, causing more selling, more decay, ... snowball effect.

Initial institution then covers at a lower price, buys MORE at that lower price, and the stock price then rockets upward. 

That's my theory here with HGEN anyway. Which is why I picked up more shares.

I just see no other explanation ... other than maybe inside information declaring the product to be ineffective.

 
Bossman said:
Isn't it a thing for hedge funds / institutions to short sell a stock, in a massive way, purposely causing the stock price to drop.... 

The drop in stock price causes individual share holders to react and sell causing more price decay, causing more selling, more decay, ... snowball effect.

Initial institution then covers at a lower price, buys MORE at that lower price, and the stock price then rockets upward. 

That's my theory here with HGEN anyway. Which is why I picked up more shares.

I just see no other explanation ... other than maybe inside information declaring the product to be ineffective.
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https://www.optionseducation.org/toolsoptionquotes/optionscalculator

I was looking at HGEN options, and it seems like both calls and puts are overpriced according to the calculator.  I have no idea how to feel about HGEN but was interested in buying OTM calls and puts but the calculator saying they are overpriced gives me pause.  If you believe in HGEN, maybe selling $20 Nov19 Puts for $6.70 is a conservative bet.

 
eaganwildcats said:
Still long and strong $HGEN, but there are legitimate bear cases. I still think it gets authorized. 
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So I know nothing about drug trials but I know a little about statistics, and those highlighted results in the first tweet don’t seem very suspicious to me. Effect size is only related to p-value if you assume that the variance in both groups is the same — if there was higher variance in the ITT population, a bigger effect size won’t necessarily decrease the p-value. Again, I know nothing about these trials, this is just a basic stats concept.

 
caustic said:
So I know nothing about drug trials but I know a little about statistics, and those highlighted results in the first tweet don’t seem very suspicious to me. Effect size is only related to p-value if you assume that the variance in both groups is the same — if there was higher variance in the ITT population, a bigger effect size won’t necessarily decrease the p-value. Again, I know nothing about these trials, this is just a basic stats concept.
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Yup. And I just keep coming back to nobody has been denied an EUA that was allowed to apply. The fda works with them on the application. Now maybe HGEN will be the first, it is certainly within the range of possibilities but I am happy to bet they get it. If they don’t, I’ll move on to the next feeling good about my play. 

 
Capella said:
Yup. And I just keep coming back to nobody has been denied an EUA that was allowed to apply. The fda works with them on the application. Now maybe HGEN will be the first, it is certainly within the range of possibilities but I am happy to bet they get it. If they don’t, I’ll move on to the next feeling good about my play. 
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Devils advocate

Result

Just relaying what I have found - again, still think they get authorized. 

 
eaganwildcats said:
Devils advocate

Result

Just relaying what I have found - again, still think they get authorized. 
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I am pretty sure NeuroRx submitted an EUA without formally consulting with the FDA first.

The preferred, but not required, method to submit an EUA for therapeutics is to meet with the FDA first. This “Type B” meeting is not a chitchat session, a great deal of data is shared and reviewed with the FDA first and detailed q&a happens at the meeting. 

I believe that the statement that all EUAs submitted following a successful Type B meeting holds true. There are also examples where an EUA was not submitted following this FDA review.

 
caustic said:
So I know nothing about drug trials but I know a little about statistics, and those highlighted results in the first tweet don’t seem very suspicious to me. Effect size is only related to p-value if you assume that the variance in both groups is the same — if there was higher variance in the ITT population, a bigger effect size won’t necessarily decrease the p-value. Again, I know nothing about these trials, this is just a basic stats concept.
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I don’t know statistics, so I was concerned about those results prior to that guy calling them out. I asked around and got this same response. 

 
Caveman33 said:
https://www.optionseducation.org/toolsoptionquotes/optionscalculator

I was looking at HGEN options, and it seems like both calls and puts are overpriced according to the calculator.  I have no idea how to feel about HGEN but was interested in buying OTM calls and puts but the calculator saying they are overpriced gives me pause.  If you believe in HGEN, maybe selling $20 Nov19 Puts for $6.70 is a conservative bet.
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I did sell $17.50 HGEN puts.

Worst case scenario, I own more HGEN.

 
HGEN ... Someone said 50k shares sold at 4am today.

Could this be a company looking to acquire them?  Drive the stock price down and make an offer.

 
Bossman said:
HGEN ... Someone said 50k shares sold at 4am today.

Could this be a company looking to acquire them?  Drive the stock price down and make an offer.
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I can’t get any of my buy orders to fill. Sitting at 19.20 while the price is at 19.10 now and no sellers. 
 

Been like this for a half hour now where I keep upping the price and nobody takes it. 

 
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I really need to see the narrative as to why AMC stock is so high.  If there was every a stock to short, this has to be it.

AMC's market cap is over 2x what it has ever been.  In fact, pre-pandemic, the highest I ever saw it reach was just a touch over $4bill, just over a third what it is today.  

Theaters are already under severe pressure due to streaming.  And during the pandemic, studios have seen that they can do a dual release to stream and to theaters and make just as much money.  Why would this trend not continue?

I like going to the movies as much as any one else.  It's been probably about two years since I've been now.  What do i remember about theaters?

-trying to find a movie worth going out to see

-Spending 60-70 bucks for a family of four for a matinee

-Getting annoyed by people talking, but more so, people texting/playing on their phones during the movie

-Moderately enjoying the "theater" experience.

Will I still go to the movie theater?  Yeah, probably so, but how many times per year?  3-4?  Any movie that I'm just partially interested in seeing previously, I'd just wait till it came on streaming, like Fandango Now, etc..  I'm sure I'll do the same.  Any movie that I'm interested in seeing if it releases say both on Disney+ and at the theaters, say Black Widow which my family will want to see, but no one is dying to see it in the movies, I'll pay the 20-30 bucks to watch it at home at our leisure (we did the same with a number of Disney releases over the past year).  Where is the new revenue stream that AMC is going to find that is going to allow it to be worth 3-4x what it was worth at any time in their past?  AMZN just bought MGM, think they may release some movies directly to Prime?  Apple has Apple TV and a boat load of money, think they may want to buy a studio and do the same?  Disney already has plenty of product and NFLX may release 1-2 movies per year to theatrical release.  If AMC is worth 12 billion, than Darden or BLMN must be worth 3-4x that as when the economy opens up, every one is going out to dinner a lot more often that they are going to the movies.

 
guru_007 said:
I really need to see the narrative as to why AMC stock is so high.  If there was every a stock to short, this has to be it.

AMC's market cap is over 2x what it has ever been.  In fact, pre-pandemic, the highest I ever saw it reach was just a touch over $4bill, just over a third what it is today.  

Theaters are already under severe pressure due to streaming.  And during the pandemic, studios have seen that they can do a dual release to stream and to theaters and make just as much money.  Why would this trend not continue?

I like going to the movies as much as any one else.  It's been probably about two years since I've been now.  What do i remember about theaters?

-trying to find a movie worth going out to see

-Spending 60-70 bucks for a family of four for a matinee

-Getting annoyed by people talking, but more so, people texting/playing on their phones during the movie

-Moderately enjoying the "theater" experience.

Will I still go to the movie theater?  Yeah, probably so, but how many times per year?  3-4?  Any movie that I'm just partially interested in seeing previously, I'd just wait till it came on streaming, like Fandango Now, etc..  I'm sure I'll do the same.  Any movie that I'm interested in seeing if it releases say both on Disney+ and at the theaters, say Black Widow which my family will want to see, but no one is dying to see it in the movies, I'll pay the 20-30 bucks to watch it at home at our leisure (we did the same with a number of Disney releases over the past year).  Where is the new revenue stream that AMC is going to find that is going to allow it to be worth 3-4x what it was worth at any time in their past?  AMZN just bought MGM, think they may release some movies directly to Prime?  Apple has Apple TV and a boat load of money, think they may want to buy a studio and do the same?  Disney already has plenty of product and NFLX may release 1-2 movies per year to theatrical release.  If AMC is worth 12 billion, than Darden or BLMN must be worth 3-4x that as when the economy opens up, every one is going out to dinner a lot more often that they are going to the movies.
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The problem is if you short it you risk the squeeze actually happening, and puts are so expensive the risk/reward ratio is really tough.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
The problem is if you short it you risk the squeeze actually happening, and puts are so expensive the risk/reward ratio is really tough.
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How high do you think the squeeze could take shares?  If you are confident AMC is going down long term, then you need only to allocate some reserve money, put on your life jacket and ride out the storm.

I am also short BLNK, which had a much higher percent of their float sold short than AMC.  Maybe like 30-40% short for BLNK vs 20-25% for AMC.  I want to short more AMC, but I will wait for $40 and $50 because the more reserve money I commit, the lower my breaking point becomes.

 
guru_007 said:
I really need to see the narrative as to why AMC stock is so high.  If there was every a stock to short, this has to be it.

AMC's market cap is over 2x what it has ever been.  In fact, pre-pandemic, the highest I ever saw it reach was just a touch over $4bill, just over a third what it is today.  

Theaters are already under severe pressure due to streaming.  And during the pandemic, studios have seen that they can do a dual release to stream and to theaters and make just as much money.  Why would this trend not continue?

I like going to the movies as much as any one else.  It's been probably about two years since I've been now.  What do i remember about theaters?

-trying to find a movie worth going out to see

-Spending 60-70 bucks for a family of four for a matinee

-Getting annoyed by people talking, but more so, people texting/playing on their phones during the movie

-Moderately enjoying the "theater" experience.

Will I still go to the movie theater?  Yeah, probably so, but how many times per year?  3-4?  Any movie that I'm just partially interested in seeing previously, I'd just wait till it came on streaming, like Fandango Now, etc..  I'm sure I'll do the same.  Any movie that I'm interested in seeing if it releases say both on Disney+ and at the theaters, say Black Widow which my family will want to see, but no one is dying to see it in the movies, I'll pay the 20-30 bucks to watch it at home at our leisure (we did the same with a number of Disney releases over the past year).  Where is the new revenue stream that AMC is going to find that is going to allow it to be worth 3-4x what it was worth at any time in their past?  AMZN just bought MGM, think they may release some movies directly to Prime?  Apple has Apple TV and a boat load of money, think they may want to buy a studio and do the same?  Disney already has plenty of product and NFLX may release 1-2 movies per year to theatrical release.  If AMC is worth 12 billion, than Darden or BLMN must be worth 3-4x that as when the economy opens up, every one is going out to dinner a lot more often that they are going to the movies.
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It’s not about fundamentals. I mentioned that last week. The stock is worth way more than its ever been with a much lower revenue and gobs more debt. A striking figure I came across was that their current interest expense is more per month than their cash flow has ever generated. That’s a company that will run out of cash eventually unless it continues to dilute shareholders. That’s why even though the stock price is less than the peak almost 5 years ago, the market cap is multiples of its peak. The outstanding shares have quadrupled. That’s usually not a good thing for a company that’s seen declining revenues ever before COVID and their “competition” is even bigger now.

The current share price is solely because there a millions of buyers trying to push this short squeeze story. I don’t think that the short squeeze is even a real thing. With the number of shares being traded the past week, the short sellers could have covered their bets on 5x every day. The company is basically rolling over its market cap everyday in volume. Acting like 80-90 million short shares can’t cover when the volume is 400-500 million a day is lunacy. This is the Ape youtubers and early investors talking about evil hedge funds to bid up their shares and its working as there are clearly a #### load of sellers. 

 
Caveman33 said:
How high do you think the squeeze could take shares?  If you are confident AMC is going down long term, then you need only to allocate some reserve money, put on your life jacket and ride out the storm
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Who knows how high it could go.  And even if you're confident it's going down long term, you'd need to do it with a small enough position relative to your account that you can ride out the storm without your broker cashing out for you via a margin call.

If you short 5000 shares and it goes to $100, is your account big enough that you can sit on a $350,000 unrealized loss without your broker liquidating all of your other positions and covering automatically for you?  Obviously anything near $100 is very unlikely, but are you willing to risk your entire account on that?

 
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FreeBaGeL said:
Who knows how high it could go.  And even if you're confident it's going down long term, you'd need to do it with a small enough position relative to your account that you can ride out the storm without your broker cashing out for you via a margin call.

If you short 5000 shares and it goes to $100, is your account big enough that you can sit on a $350,000 unrealized loss without your broker liquidating all of your other positions and covering automatically for you?
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I’d never short this stock. I don’t think it goes much higher. When the one whale that basically brought them public decided a few weeks ago that the share price was more than enough to get completely out that should say something when the share price is double. Problem is, betting against a bunch of people who believe what is being preached and the preachers (lol at the them not making tons of scratch) is too dangerous. I don’t want to call it a Ponzi scheme but I don’t think the people leading the charge are doing it for any other reason than a bunch of apes are buying it in droves and it’s lining the leader’s pockets.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Who knows how high it could go.  And even if you're confident it's going down long term, you'd need to do it with a small enough position relative to your account that you can ride out the storm without your broker cashing out for you via a margin call.

If you short 5000 shares and it goes to $100, is your account big enough that you can sit on a $350,000 unrealized loss without your broker liquidating all of your other positions and covering automatically for you?  Obviously anything near $100 is very unlikely, but are you willing to risk your entire account on that?
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Yes, but in my case, I am only short 200 shares with plans to short 200 more at $40-45 and 200 more at $55-60.  I would be able to avoid a margin call until about $150/share.  I expect this trade to result in a 2-3K profit but there is a chance for a loss of like 75K.

 
Pigskin Fanatic said:
#CLDR up 24% as of this posting since Friday closing price. Article says the deal will take the company private. What will that mean for share prices as it gets closer to finalizing the deal?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/kkr-cd-r-near-deal-to-buy-cloudera-11622510459
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Nothing. They are offering $16 a share and it’s a pretty simple deal hence the tiny spread covering the minute chance it might not happen. Unless you have to get the final $0.05 per share or are very close to long term capital gains, just sell it. The price on these private equity deals doesn’t change and the regulatory stuff with mergers is a non-issue.

 
Caveman33 said:
Yes, but in my case, I am only short 200 shares with plans to short 200 more at $40-45 and 200 more at $55-60.  I would be able to avoid a margin call until about $150/share.  I expect this trade to result in a 2-3K profit but there is a chance for a loss of like 75K.
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To each his own but I would never do this.  We already know that nothing rational is happening already, hard to predict when this insaneness stops.

I would buy puts if I wanted to play against it, not outright shorting it.  Limit the loss at least.

 
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