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Stock Thread (18 Viewers)

FreeBaGeL said:
It will all depend on the fed meeting today.  They are supposed to announce the rate increase schedule, right?
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Probably. Maybe 50/50 on that being good news or bad? Maybe better on odds on being bad? Not sure. Just seems like there are more potential negative catalysts out there than positive ones in the short term. I'm not trading it, but still reluctant to call this close to the bottom to be a buyer here.

 
Dipped my toes in today and re-deployed about 5% fo my cash, buying a smattering of 12 stocks:

CTRN

SHOP

TFC

SI

MSFT

MMM

JPM

JNJ

HD

GS

CD

FLGT

EPD

UVXY

A small hedge in case the FED backtrack and soothes the market

 
The Commish said:
So, this is something I've been wondering about.  In the past, there's always been a "what are they gonna do?!" element to these announcements.  This time, not so much.  Feels like the markets already "know" that rates are increasing and reasonably know by how much.  Can we assume this announcement is already baked in?
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Yes, but they are unlikely to announce a rate hike today. Every sense about a decade ago the Fed has been much more explicit in publicly producing a data-dependent forecast.

 
The Commish said:
So, this is something I've been wondering about.  In the past, there's always been a "what are they gonna do?!" element to these announcements.  This time, not so much.  Feels like the markets already "know" that rates are increasing and reasonably know by how much.  Can we assume this announcement is already baked in?
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Gambling odds (not a great barometer, but all I have to go on) have 4-5 rate raises as the most likely outcome, 3-4 rate raises as second most likely, and 5-6 rate raises as 3rd most likely.  I think if it's 6 there will be major pain.  5 likely a little pain.  4 seems to be the most expected number.  3 would I guess be slightly better than expected.

Rate raise expectations

No idea how much is priced in overall.  But much like earnings for a particular stock, it seems like the market has some number in mind and will likely react if a number gets announced and it's different than what is expected.

 
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FreeBaGeL said:
Gambling odds (not a great barometer, but all I have to go on) have 4-5 rate raises as the most likely outcome, 3-4 rate raises as second most likely, and 5-6 rate raises as 3rd most likely.  I think if it's 6 there will be major pain.  5 likely a little pain.  4 seems to be the most expected number.  3 would I guess be slightly better than expected.

Rate raise expectations

No idea how much is priced in overall.  But much like earnings for a particular stock, it seems like the market has some number in mind and will likely react if a number gets announced and it's different than what is expected.
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There is an actual futures market for this stuff that everyone uses to determine when forecasted hikes are, but I'm not sure where to publicly look at that information besides on the Bloomberg terminal. It's right at 4 now.

 
The market needs to get over this 12 year trend of an accommodative fed policy. And it will. But there is going to be volatility and opportunity getting there. 

The economy is very strong, labor markets are strong, supplies are low, demand is high, inflation is high and Covid accelerated this 5 fold. 

Great companies are going to grow no matter what. Way too many investors are conditioned to think interest rates have to be near or at zero for the stock market to do well. That is just crazy. But this is what happens after 12 years of near zero interest rates.

2015-2018 they raised 8 times and 4th quarter of 2018 the market finally spoke about having to adjust to higher rates and what did they do for seriously no good, justifiable reason? They started cutting again.....while we passed a massive tax break. It was insane. 

Covid hits.......there were no more tools in the tool box and the federal government then has no choice but to pump trillions into the economy. 

Here we are. Inflation at 7%

Invest in excellent, cash flow companies, great dividends, be diversified. And take advantage of big panic selling dips. That’s all you can do as a long term investor. 

Day traders......good luck. Not my area. 

 
Gopher State said:
Watching NETFLIX for a time to buy.  Moving towards 350.00 which seems like a good entry point.
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Based on their growth.....I think this is representing great value as a pure streaming play and the dominant name in the space. 

Their model is the best in the sector....content best in the sector and their execution has been excellent.  Great chance to own it down here for the “long” term. 

 
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From the internets 

I have no idea who Jerome Powell is but I do know that I don’t like him very much right now because all my friends on Twitter don’t like him very much right now and he’s supposed to make stonks and crypto go up only but now they’re going down only

 
cosjobs said:
From the internets 

I have no idea who Jerome Powell is but I do know that I don’t like him very much right now because all my friends on Twitter don’t like him very much right now and he’s supposed to make stonks and crypto go up only but now they’re going down only
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Yeah…..sounds about right. LOL!

 
Hulk smash!

January 26, 2022 at 4:20 PM EST

Xilinx Reports Record Revenue of $1.01 Billion in Fiscal Third Quarter

Record revenue of $1,011 million, representing 8% sequential growth and 26% year-over-year growth, despite ongoing industry-wide supply constraints

Data Center Group (DCG) achieved record revenue with sequential growth of 28% and 81% year-over-year, driven by Compute and Networking strength

Aerospace & Defense, Industrial and Test, Measurement & Emulation (AIT) revenue was also a record, increasing 21% sequentially and 28% year-over-year, driven by record A&D revenue and continued strength in ISM and TME end markets

Automotive, Broadcast and Consumer (ABC) revenue in the quarter decreased 4% sequentially coming off a record Q2 and largely in-line with expectations; revenue increased 28% year-over-year

Wired and Wireless Group (WWG) revenue decreased 18% sequentially and increased 1% year-over-year as supply constraints had a significant impact on business in the quarter

Platform transformation continues with total Adaptive SoC revenue, which includes Zynq and Versal platforms, up 5% sequentially and 30% year-over-year, and representing 28% of total revenue

SAN JOSE, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Jan. 26, 2022-- Xilinx, Inc. (Nasdaq: XLNX), the leader in adaptive computing, today announced record revenues of $1,011 million for the fiscal third quarter, up 8% over the previous quarter.

GAAP net income for the fiscal third quarter was $300 million, or $1.19 per diluted share. Non-GAAP net income for the quarter was $325 million, or $1.29 per diluted share.

As permitted by the terms of the Merger Agreement between Xilinx and Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD), the Xilinx Board of Directors voted unanimously to declare a cash dividend of $0.37 per outstanding share of common stock payable on February 14, 2022 to all stockholders of record at the close of business on February 7, 2022. The dividend is conditioned upon and will only be payable if the merger has not closed on or before the record date for such dividend.

 
BassNBrew said:
If my calculations are right :lol:  that's a 13% beat on eps
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It’s up a bit, but damn TER got skewered. They beat top and bottom but they lowballed Q1. Not sure why, maybe worries about supply chain? It will be nice to get real info on that because it was a low guidance after beating in Q4. Their range is really wide but still way low.

LRCX also missed numbers and I think said something about supply chain issues so TER must be noticing the same thing for Q1.

 
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pecorino said:
Love this speculative trade. Thanks for mentioning it. After hours, AAPL is down one more point. I will be looking at these calls in the morning.
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I arrived home to catch the very end of Fast Money and believe I heard someone through options is betting 78 million dollars AAPL stays at or above the $160 level. 

ETA

With this Friday as the expiration. 

:oldunsure:

 
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@BassNBrew Looks like XLNX had a good night. Great earnings and China approved the merger. Surprised it isn’t up more. Well AMD is down premarket so that’s probably a little drag.

Actually, based on the share price there’s only about a 2% premium now so this move has less to do with earnings and more just repricing it to have a small premium as it’ll go through and it’s price will be 100% based on AMD’s price until it closes.

 
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2Squirrels1Nut said:
I arrived home to catch the very end of Fast Money and believe I heard someone through options is betting 78 million dollars AAPL stays at or above the $160 level. 

:oldunsure:
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Until what date?

 
The Commish said:
So, this is something I've been wondering about.  In the past, there's always been a "what are they gonna do?!" element to these announcements.  This time, not so much.  Feels like the markets already "know" that rates are increasing and reasonably know by how much.  Can we assume this announcement is already baked in?
Click to expand...
Like corporations, they offer "guidance," but its not set in stone.

 
stbugs said:
@BassNBrew Looks like XLNX had a good night. Great earnings and China approved the merger. Surprised it isn’t up more. Well AMD is down premarket so that’s probably a little drag.

Actually, based on the share price there’s only about a 2% premium now so this move has less to do with earnings and more just repricing it to have a small premium as it’ll go through and it’s price will be 100% based on AMD’s price until it closes.
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Props to you for beating this drum over the last year.  Lots of AMD fans around here, but this was the correct play.

What are your plans from here?  Are you going to close out your position or just let it convert to AMD?

 
INTC a @Todem quality stock pick is down 6% today.  This pattern has been repeating where it dives on earnings days and then slowly rebounds over the quarter.  If you look at the chart you'll see numerous big dips followed by recoveries.  It definitely won't double anytime soon, but I can see an 8-10% return in the next 3 months.

 
BassNBrew said:
INTC a @Todem quality stock pick is down 6% today.  This pattern has been repeating where it dives on earnings days and then slowly rebounds over the quarter.  If you look at the chart you'll see numerous big dips followed by recoveries.  It definitely won't double anytime soon, but I can see an 8-10% return in the next 3 months.
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I view lNTC like CSCO, a tech utility. 

It is not sexy.....not high growth. This is a pure value stock you buy at the right entry point (today) and collect the dividend with very moderate growth in the stock price. They are spending a lot of money in new product plants etc. But they are clearly committed to the dividend and growing it. 

Today is a good day to nibble or take a small position in this for the long term. 

Agree with @BassNBrew with 8-10% upside near term.

 
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BassNBrew said:
Props to you for beating this drum over the last year.  Lots of AMD fans around here, but this was the correct play.

What are your plans from here?  Are you going to close out your position or just let it convert to AMD?
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Let it convert and ride it for a bit. Need yo really understand AMD a bit better. Maybe see how it’s earnings are next week. Best play would have been selling it in November but it’s still been a great buy. I’ll take a double in a year and a half every time.

 
Somebody hinted yesterday that you might as well buy an index fund in a response to a post where @Todem laid out diversified portfolio with only 2% max in any one stock.  Here's the reason why you don't buy the index fund when Todem is dropping gems like DOW.

Now he did recommend at $59.40 on 10-15.  It's only up a buck from then based on the news below.  You also got a 70 cent dividend (4.5% return) and missed 1.5% average market drop.  It's basically checking all the boxes as to why he said to buy.  However I never go all in when anyone suggests a stock unless there;s a specific reason to buy immediately.  DOW faded over the next 6 weeks and I made additional buys at $56 and $53.  I actually prefer it when table pounding buys get 10% cheaper.

While most of my portfolio is in shambles, most of the winners over the last 3 months are value plays Todem suggested.  

Dow Inc. (DOW) came out with quarterly earnings of $2.15 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.04 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.81 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.

This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of 5.39%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this materials science would post earnings of $2.60 per share when it actually produced earnings of $2.75, delivering a surprise of 5.77%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates four times.
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stbugs said:
Let it convert and ride it for a bit. Need yo really understand AMD a bit better. Maybe see how it’s earnings are next week. Best play would have been selling it in November but it’s still been a great buy. I’ll take a double in a year and a half every time.
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I'm going to bark at you about this statement (and I did sell some in November to raise cash), but you can't Monday morning QB like this when you know you'll never sell everything and go 100% to cash.  Amazon is down about the same amount.  The correct play would have been to listen to me and sell all your Amazon at $3500, but no one listens to me....including me.

 
Heads up that another Todem value recommendation LYB reports tomorrow.  It's up 3.5% today so it may be too late, but it could have a DOW pop.  PE 5.6 and yield of 4.7%.  At the very least I'd set a watch alert in the $91-$92 in case the market tanks again.  It's hard to remember to pick up stuff like this when NFLX or SOFI are down 10-15% in a day.

 
Not thrilled with being 14.5% down on AMZN, but this is in a rainy-day account and my personal forecast is pretty good, for now.

But BX beating estimates by 25%....  :wub:  

 
BassNBrew said:
I'm going to bark at you about this statement (and I did sell some in November to raise cash), but you can't Monday morning QB like this when you know you'll never sell everything and go 100% to cash.  Amazon is down about the same amount.  The correct play would have been to listen to me and sell all your Amazon at $3500, but no one listens to me....including me.
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I raised some cash as well and yeah I know I’d never go 100% cash. Just didn’t sell as much as I should have even though I recall some Eeyor comments when I said I was worried. There were a handful of stocks that felt extended and those are where I needed to trim more. I did sell some AMZN around $3500. I’ve got plenty more stocks that have gone down more than AMZN.

 
stbugs said:
I raised some cash as well and yeah I know I’d never go 100% cash. Just didn’t sell as much as I should have even though I recall some Eeyor comments when I said I was worried. There were a handful of stocks that felt extended and those are where I needed to trim more. I did sell some AMZN around $3500. I’ve got plenty more stocks that have gone down more than AMZN.
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That's right, I'm still waiting on my six pack.

 
NNDM down almost 15% from where it was yesterday morning.

Anyone buying this?  Or buying more?

Quick question regarding their cash on hand that is greater than their market cap.....where did all that cash come from?

 
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