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Stock Thread (18 Viewers)

guru_007 said:
As I know this thread loves all things AMZN, they report on Wednesday.  If the earnings and guidance are simply solid, I think AMZN wins the race to trillion market cap.

I'm not a holder, but as Google is reporting today ......things may be in place for a rocket ship.
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I own both but think AMZN needs to kill it to pop because it has run so far so fast.

 
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fantasycurse42 said:
Dive into it. 

https://s22.q4cdn.com/959853165/files/doc_financials/quarterly_reports/2018/q2/FINAL-Q2-18-Shareholder-Letter.pdf

Look at the forecasts, those Q3 forecasts don't demand a P/E of like 250 or 300. Buying opportunity down the line, but this thing might have to come back down to Earth. Only reason their EPS was even .85 was due to a net gain of $85MM bc of currency conversion on a Eurobond.

These numbers and forecasts were not pretty, and when something is up over 100% YTD, it better be super pretty. 
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@siffoin. Or @fantasycurse42If I am in the money on a put should I sell or ride down (tsla). I have never actually hit an in the money on a put before.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Dive into it. 

https://s22.q4cdn.com/959853165/files/doc_financials/quarterly_reports/2018/q2/FINAL-Q2-18-Shareholder-Letter.pdf

Look at the forecasts, those Q3 forecasts don't demand a P/E of like 250 or 300. Buying opportunity down the line, but this thing might have to come back down to Earth. Only reason their EPS was even .85 was due to a net gain of $85MM bc of currency conversion on a Eurobond.

These numbers and forecasts were not pretty, and when something is up over 100% YTD, it better be super pretty. 
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@siffoin. Or @fantasycurse42If I am in the money on a put should I sell or ride down (tsla). I have never actually hit an in the money on a put before.

 
sbonomo said:
@siffoin. Or @fantasycurse42If I am in the money on a put should I sell or ride down (tsla). I have never actually hit an in the money on a put before.
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IDK, I look at the chart and say it looks shaky at best, I suspect Siff would agree, but that’s his expertise.

With being said, if the faith in Elon starts to slide, and the cult/believers begin bailing, the ride down will be fast & furious. Everything he has done lately has been erratic, which kinda stinks of desperation. If you dive into the numbers, they’re going to need cash, I don’t see how they don’t. Furthermore, the demand on the higher end Model 3’s does not look great (when you look at delivery times), and those margins on the base models are much thinner. Also, a lot of competition coming against them soon.

I took a quick ride from $315 to $342 and made some quick coin, but it’s a stock I’ve avoided due to its unpredictability- thing can spike 10% on nothing (or fall). 

With all that being said, I don’t see the bears being squeezed out, they’ve dug in, their conviction is high, and instead of covering, I think they’ll just add to their positions. They’ve dealt with so much pain and they’re still standing. Feels like the tide could be shifting and the Tesla bulls are starting to feel the ground get a little wobbly underneath. 

My best advice if you’re now in the money:

Sell 1 or 2 to cover you’re initial cost or a good portion of it, and ride the rest out. If things continue to move south, it’ll happen in a flash. I could see $180 by mid-fall as somewhat realistic. I personally think the stock is worth zero dollars, but I’ve been biased on this one for a long time. When’s expiration? 

 
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fantasycurse42 said:
IDK, I look at the chart and say it looks shaky at best, I suspect Siff would agree, but that’s his expertise.

With being said, if the faith in Elon starts to slide, and the cult/believers begin bailing, the ride down will be fast & furious. Everything he has done lately has been erratic, which kinda stinks of desperation. If you dive into the numbers, they’re going to need cash, I don’t see how they don’t. Furthermore, the demand on the higher end Model 3’s does not look great (when you look at delivery times), and those margins on the base models are much thinner. Also, a lot of competition coming against them soon.

I took a quick ride from $315 to $342 and made some quick coin, but it’s a stock I’ve avoided due to its unpredictability- thing can spike 10% on nothing (or fall). 

With all that being said, I don’t see the bears being squeezed out, they’ve dug in, their conviction is high, and instead of covering, I think they’ll just add to their positions. They’ve dealt with so much pain and they’re still standing. Feels like the tide could be shifting and the Tesla bulls are starting to feel the ground get a little wobbly underneath. 

My best advice if you’re now in the money:

Sell 1 or 2 to cover you’re initial cost or a good portion of it, and ride the rest out. If things continue to move south, it’ll happen in a flash. I could see $180 by mid-fall as somewhat realistic. I personally think the stock is worth zero dollars, but I’ve been biased on this one for a long time. When’s expiration? 
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I actually have 20 contracts at. 290 strike (I bought them two weeks ago).  My question was more around if the price drops below the 290 does it make sense to hold onto the put or is there a diminishing value (not dolllar for dollar return). For example if a 290 out is selling at 20 per contract theoretically if it goes to 289 it should go to 21 right?  Sorry if I am explaining this poorly.  I am going to take half my profits tomorrow regardless.  

 
sbonomo said:
I actually have 20 contracts at. 290 strike (I bought them two weeks ago).  My question was more around if the price drops below the 290 does it make sense to hold onto the put or is there a diminishing value (not dolllar for dollar return). For example if a 290 out is selling at 20 per contract theoretically if it goes to 289 it should go to 21 right?  Sorry if I am explaining this poorly.  I am going to take half my profits tomorrow regardless.  
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20 contracts when this was over $320? Yea, you’ve prob made some good returns here, easily $10k... Sell half, ride the rest, IMO. I’m a long time Tesla bear though, so take it fwiw. You’re basically free-rolling 1k shares if my math is close. 

Are they near expiration or further out? If further out, I absolutely say let the free ride roll.

 
Capella said:
I don’t get it either. 
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Pretty simple. All mutual funds, which are a much larger chunk of change than after hours trading, are priced as of the market close at 4pm. There’d be way too much movement/shenanigans in and out of mutual funds if earnings were announced before 4pm. Also, after hours can be chaotic and smaller bets can move prices. It’s funny sometimes how much different an after hours session can be than what happens the next day with a stock. 

 
GoBirds said:
Guys, best ETF/Fund for exposure to FAANG? Want to consider an alternative to just adding more AAPL.
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Hell, if you just buy up the biggest big cap ETFs they are like 10-15% AAPL as it is.  Blackrock used to have a sick tool to show you how your actual stock allocation was setup for Ishares stuff, then they made that behind a paywall :wall: .  I was knee deep into AAPL just on ETFs between tech and large cap.  

I mean, VT, it's top 5 exposure IS FAAANG.  Lol.

 
culdeus said:
Hell, if you just buy up the biggest big cap ETFs they are like 10-15% AAPL as it is.  Blackrock used to have a sick tool to show you how your actual stock allocation was setup for Ishares stuff, then they made that behind a paywall :wall: .  I was knee deep into AAPL just on ETFs between tech and large cap.  

I mean, VT, it's top 5 exposure IS FAAANG.  Lol.
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I’ve been making the transition over to Vanguard and noticed most funds that’s the top holding.....didn’t know if there were any out there specific to these although that may be buying right into a bubble. 

 
GoBirds said:
I’ve been making the transition over to Vanguard and noticed most funds that’s the top holding.....didn’t know if there were any out there specific to these although that may be buying right into a bubble. 
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I'm in VHT (health care), VGT (information), and VCR (consumer)

None of them move too much one way or the other. Today VGT is up 1% which is a really good day from what's typical.

Nothing gets the juices flowing like straight up amzn though ... ok, maybe googl. 

 
NeverEnough said:
:yawn: I'm thinking Amazon or Apple. Just looking to make a few bucks in the next few months, this won't be in long term.
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Well with tvix you put it in and take it out 3 or 4 times a day. 

Least that's how the "pro's" do it.  :ph34r:

Stock Twits - TVIX

I think you may be a couple days late to the party with amzn.  Was a bargain Monday at 1800. Gonna be in the 1900's by the end of this week.

Course the dang stock is so expensive you'd need to pony up a little more than $5k to buy 3 shares.

 
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Honest gut opinion here: don't chase FAANG, find others that don't already have massive gains. 

To me, feels like institutions have already begun passing FAANG off to the retail guy, retail guy will be left holding the bag, institutions will come back and by it from retail guy later, rinse repeat. 

If you're already a holder with big gains, different story, but new positions, meh... Do some hw, find something else. Just my .02.   

 
Facebook took another dive afterhours.  Down 14%....17%....16% right now.   :eek:

I saw the initial 10% drop...but then it leveled off.

 
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St. Louis Bob said:
Yep, $35+  a share. Conference call must not be going well.  General, you should have someone start your car for you. 
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Tailpipe in or out of the window?   :P

I'm patiently waiting for CVX call tomorrow.  Stock has languished (not sure why), but all indications are they will have good things to say.

 
Sand said:
Tailpipe in or out of the window?   :P

I'm patiently waiting for CVX call tomorrow.  Stock has languished (not sure why), but all indications are they will have good things to say.
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Sold my FB a while ago. Wss tempted to short but I have more than enough short money out there. 

 
NFLX GOOGL, AMZN all getting dinged too.  If AMZN doesn't absolutely crush it tomorrow we may see the same thing. Of course there probably aren't millions of bots paying for Prime. Still, it is priced for perfection. 

 
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