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1 minute ago, pecorino said:

Maybe it is wishful thinking but I am hoping the blue wave crashes all over our Orange leader and his party tomorrow. In reality, the Dems will take the house but the Republicans will keep the Senate. I've been saying all along that when Mueller reports or when the midterms ding Trump, the markets will buckle as their sugar daddy will be closer to the exit door. I expect the markets to behave poorly on Wednesday (another reason to short CMG).

I've moved a lot of retirement money into gold, real estate, a staples ETF, and baked beans for my bunker. I'm ready for the 1-2 punch of the elections going against Trump followed closely by Mueller poking his head out of his hole.

I think the gridlock is good - the herd thinks the Republican sweep equals a rally... I learned a lesson in 11/2016 about how accurate the herd usually is on the heels of politics. Find me one person who was bearish gold if Trump won (Almost any analyst I covered had gold going to like $1,500 or $2,000 on a Trump win). Here are gold prices from that election http://www.pmbull.com/gold-price/november-2016/ - Opened the month at $1,290, spiked to $1,335 when Trump won, finished the month at $1,173, huge moves for gold. Market will overreact one way or the other Wednesday, I wouldn't read much into it... It'll take a few days to figure out what the markets are really sniffing out. 

To me, a gridlock could slow the irresponsible fiscal madness going on in DC, which IMO is spiraling out of control.

If the Republicans do keep control of everything, I might be eyeing LMT and RTN for an add though. 

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2 hours ago, Mystery Achiever said:

Removal of uncertainty - any uncertainty - is a big trigger for markets to go higher. And a Dem House may already be in the market, so you could still see a rally if that happens. If both houses went blue, which seems highly unlikely, I would expect a market decline.

I think it is possible (almost probable) we rally after the election (almost regardless of the outcome). The truth is, the election doesn’t remove any of the problems bubbling under the surface (trade, rates, inflation) and that any rally is an opportunity to sell into strength, book profits, & raise cash. 

With that, I am spending some time this evening looking for domestic companies with little international business, that reported great earnings, and haven’t reacted to raised guidance as they should. These are trades, not long term buy & holds, looking for 5 percentish on a relief rally, and a quick exit.

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On 11/5/2018 at 1:44 PM, fantasycurse42 said:

Thoughts on midterms tomorrow? Not talking political views, but for the markets. 

Everyone says a Republican sweep would be good for the markets, I assume these are the same talking heads that said Trump would cause an instant correction.

I'm playing the contrarian, a Republican sweep leads to yields spiking and is bad for the markets - gridlock would be better. 

I predict amzn will take off today.

Republicans held serve (I think?) and this economy continues to thrive.

Look for 1700 today and 1800's very near future. It won't look back.

The rest of the market? Who cares.

 

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46 minutes ago, Bossman said:

I predict amzn will take off today.

Republicans held serve (I think?) and this economy continues to thrive.

Look for 1700 today and 1800's very near future. It won't look back.

The rest of the market? Who cares.

 

Market has a short memory. Fed meets today/tomorrow. While the expectation is they don’t hike tomorrow, there will be a statement - after last weeks NFP, expect them to stay hawkish... So while we’re prob gonna rally, don’t forget about the headwinds, and they’re very real headwinds.

My opinion is to sell into strength (not buy into it) unless we reverse course with China or the Fed gets more dovish. Those things might put ceilings on the market.

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Not wanting to make this a political thread, but a high powered finance guy in our org tracks a billion industry type "newsletters" .

I didn't realize that if Trump quits/impeaches prior to January 20th it opens up the possibility for Pence to have a 10 year presidency.  Of course this would require that creeper to win two elections, but if Cruz can do it he sure as hell can.

Main angle of the analysis is that GOP may try to steer Trump to resign as a "victory" to ensure monetary/tax policy stays consistent for 10 years under Pence, and markets aren't currently looking  hard enough at this possible situation.  If Pence takes office after Jan 20th, he can only run for re-election once.  

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53 minutes ago, Don't Noonan said:

I had a limit order to sell AMZN I purchased last week trigger this morning at $1705.  Bought at $1505.  I am happy.  

Pretty good for a couple weeks' work. I am in at a cost basis of $1610 and plan to sell half if it approaches 1800 (which is looking like tomorrow morning if it keeps ripping higher. Almost up 100 points at this hour).

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1 hour ago, culdeus said:

Not wanting to make this a political thread, but a high powered finance guy in our org tracks a billion industry type "newsletters" .

I didn't realize that if Trump quits/impeaches prior to January 20th it opens up the possibility for Pence to have a 10 year presidency.  Of course this would require that creeper to win two elections, but if Cruz can do it he sure as hell can.

Main angle of the analysis is that GOP may try to steer Trump to resign as a "victory" to ensure monetary/tax policy stays consistent for 10 years under Pence, and markets aren't currently looking  hard enough at this possible situation.  If Pence takes office after Jan 20th, he can only run for re-election once.  

Does he track newsletters on Trump's ego?

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1 hour ago, Bob Sacamano said:

SQ up 7% ahead of earnings. This is going to be one of those sell the news things, and they're going to get slaughtered, aren't they?

Making me wonder. I’ve got 1000 shares up a nice amount. My worry is a great report allows it to get back towards 100. 

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16 minutes ago, stbugs said:

Making me wonder. I’ve got 1000 shares up a nice amount. My worry is a great report allows it to get back towards 100. 

Yeah, I'm in a similar boat.  I think they're going to have to crush this report, though, to make much headway. And I'm just not sure it's a realistic expectation.  But it is a stock I want to hold long-term, so I'm not going anywhere even if there is short term pain.  Only question will be when and how much to add.  I think PYPL is a reasonable comp, and I could see them down a path to that market cap in the future.  

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17 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

Yeah, I'm in a similar boat.  I think they're going to have to crush this report, though, to make much headway. And I'm just not sure it's a realistic expectation.  But it is a stock I want to hold long-term, so I'm not going anywhere even if there is short term pain.  Only question will be when and how much to add.  I think PYPL is a reasonable comp, and I could see them down a path to that market cap in the future.  

Well, I’m in Denver and I had to go through security so I missed my chance. Hopefully, the report is good. It’s my IRA so looking long term as well. 

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9 minutes ago, stbugs said:

Well, I’m in Denver and I had to go through security so I missed my chance. Hopefully, the report is good. It’s my IRA so looking long term as well. 

Beat earnings and revenue but down a lot after hours. Oh well  

 

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Need some advice. I know very little about investing. I have about 50k that I'm rolling over into a Fidelity IRA from an old employer 401k.

I'm 42 and have about 25 more years of active work years left. If I continue on the path I'm on, I'll have a government "pension" of sorts that will be my primary retirement income.

I'm ok with some risk and don't want to have to monitor things everyday. I'm not looking for total "autopilot," but I don't want to worry about it all the time.

How should I invest that 50k in Fidelity funds?

TIA.

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16 minutes ago, Ray Karpis said:

Need some advice. I know very little about investing. I have about 50k that I'm rolling over into a Fidelity IRA from an old employer 401k.

I'm 42 and have about 25 more years of active work years left. If I continue on the path I'm on, I'll have a government "pension" of sorts that will be my primary retirement income.

I'm ok with some risk and don't want to have to monitor things everyday. I'm not looking for total "autopilot," but I don't want to worry about it all the time.

How should I invest that 50k in Fidelity funds?

TIA.

If you truly want a hands off approach use a target year fund from fidelity.  The fees are a bit higher than self directed, but you are paying them to do the work for you over time.

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18 minutes ago, Ray Karpis said:

Need some advice. I know very little about investing. I have about 50k that I'm rolling over into a Fidelity IRA from an old employer 401k.

I'm 42 and have about 25 more years of active work years left. If I continue on the path I'm on, I'll have a government "pension" of sorts that will be my primary retirement income.

I'm ok with some risk and don't want to have to monitor things everyday. I'm not looking for total "autopilot," but I don't want to worry about it all the time.

How should I invest that 50k in Fidelity funds?

TIA.

Get a lot of advice from a range of folks because I am just a doofus at a keyboard and you're talking about 50K. With that said, invest half in BRK B and forget about it for 25 years. Then you might find a specific stock or three that you like which pays a dividend and set those, too, and forget it. You might consider AAPL, GM, T, VZ, or any number of other stalwarts that should keep your money safe while providing solid returns. Or swing for the fences and dump it all into pot stocks or AMZN. 

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1 hour ago, pecorino said:

Get a lot of advice from a range of folks because I am just a doofus at a keyboard and you're talking about 50K. With that said, invest half in BRK B and forget about it for 25 years. Then you might find a specific stock or three that you like which pays a dividend and set those, too, and forget it. You might consider AAPL, GM, T, VZ, or any number of other stalwarts that should keep your money safe while providing solid returns. Or swing for the fences and dump it all into pot stocks or AMZN. 

I believe T is the only one of those you don't already have significant exposure to if you buy BRK.

Edited by Bob Sacamano
probably wine
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Something of interest;

HZN - Horizon Global, down 45% after ER missed.

Company sells trailer hitches and other automotive accessories and has for 40+ years? (recently went public ... maybe 5 years ago?)

They've been going thru a transition period with a new CEO (as of last year), consolidating and streamlining processes ...

but it's causing inventory and sales numbers to be down while doing so.

At $3 a share today, seems like a bargain as people over react to the ER. Was trading in the mid 5's before ER and high 6's a month ago.

Full disclosure: I'm a rookie at trading stocks and I have no business giving advice. Do your own research.

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On 11/7/2018 at 6:57 AM, Bossman said:

I predict amzn will take off today.

Republicans held serve (I think?) and this economy continues to thrive.

Look for 1700 today and 1800's very near future. It won't look back.

The rest of the market? Who cares.

 

Well, we got the 1700 easy enough.

amzn hanging tough today despite the rest of tech dropping a bit.

Might have to wait until next week for the 1800.

I'd prefer a subtle climb of 1-2% per day vs the extreme ups and downs that we've been seeing.

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5 minutes ago, Bossman said:

Well, we got the 1700 easy enough.

amzn hanging tough today despite the rest of tech dropping a bit.

Might have to wait until next week for the 1800.

I'd prefer a subtle climb of 1-2% per day vs the extreme ups and downs that we've been seeing.

1 to 2 percent a day. So 4500 by this time next year. :-;

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On 11/5/2018 at 2:04 PM, fantasycurse42 said:

I think we could get a relief rally after the midterms, I'm waiting a week or so. I'm eyeing March $450 puts for around $25 (if it rallies and I can get them for $15, I'd be thrilled). This stock could fall by 50% and I still wouldn't look at it as a value play. 

I'm still sold. Those puts of which you speak are trading at a little over $20 per. It's only a four month window and that's a 5% drop to get to break-even, but I'm intrigued.

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Considering dipping toes back into Oil Royalties as a yield play.

Feel like that with commodities sometimes you do want to try to catch that falling knife. 

Royalty based commodity stocks are one of my sneaky defensive plays into a broader equity bear market.  They tend to do sneaky well.  

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On ‎11‎/‎8‎/‎2018 at 10:59 AM, Ray Karpis said:

Need some advice. I know very little about investing. I have about 50k that I'm rolling over into a Fidelity IRA from an old employer 401k.

I'm 42 and have about 25 more years of active work years left. If I continue on the path I'm on, I'll have a government "pension" of sorts that will be my primary retirement income.

I'm ok with some risk and don't want to have to monitor things everyday. I'm not looking for total "autopilot," but I don't want to worry about it all the time.

How should I invest that 50k in Fidelity funds?

TIA.

Manage it yourself. Don't pay those jackwads to do nothing and take a cut. I know someone here who lets Valic manage her $ and they have NEVER moved it around yet they steal $50 a month from her. Odds are you can do a better job just by doing some homework.

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On 11/5/2018 at 2:04 PM, fantasycurse42 said:

I think we could get a relief rally after the midterms, I'm waiting a week or so. I'm eyeing March $450 puts for around $25 (if it rallies and I can get them for $15, I'd be thrilled). This stock could fall by 50% and I still wouldn't look at it as a value play. 

CMG closed at $490 on this rough day. Might be ripe for some puts.

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On 11/8/2018 at 10:59 AM, Ray Karpis said:

Need some advice. I know very little about investing. I have about 50k that I'm rolling over into a Fidelity IRA from an old employer 401k.

I'm 42 and have about 25 more years of active work years left. If I continue on the path I'm on, I'll have a government "pension" of sorts that will be my primary retirement income.

I'm ok with some risk and don't want to have to monitor things everyday. I'm not looking for total "autopilot," but I don't want to worry about it all the time.

How should I invest that 50k in Fidelity funds?

TIA.

I'd suggest staying away from individual stocks and putting it in a few different low cost Fidelity index funds.  Here's a link with some suggestions on the portfolio:

https://obliviousinvestor.com/8-simple-portfolios-with-fidelity-funds-and-ishares-etfs/

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On 11/9/2018 at 5:23 PM, pecorino said:

CMG closed at $490 on this rough day. Might be ripe for some puts.

Honestly, not sure what to make of CMG - somehow, they're flat on a day like today. I've read their balance sheet a bunch of times, and I know they hold no debt (good for them), but I didn't realize less than a dozen companies in the entire S&P 500 are debt free. Maybe they're being rewarded for being one of those few companies, but honestly, I have no ####### clue.

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Two things, both pretty interesting to me in this article - https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/12/the-reasons-to-be-bearish-on-the-market-now-are-swamping-the-bull-case.html

Quote

Rosenberg pointed to rising trading volume amid a market decline Friday, which he said shows "that institutions are now more willing to sell on strength than buy the dips."

Said this earlier on the previous page, sell into strength. Unless we get a resolution on trade or a more dovish Fed, this stands - these two things combined put a hard ceiling on this market. Sell the pops - obviously when AMZN rallies $120 in a day, the feeling is relief, euphoric, or whatever, but step back and realize there are very real headwinds out there that haven't existed in a decade. 

I'm becoming much less bullish on AMZN anyways (mainly the ecomm business), gotta see the forest for the trees. Their retail competition is stepping up, need to pay attention to the likes of Walmart, Target, etc... They aren't going to let Amazon eat their lunch this holiday season. Free shipping and competitive pricing, Amazon already had to respond by offering free shipping over the holiday season to non-prime members (I'd also think this pisses off some Prime members, not a majority, but certainly at least 5-10% that are aware). Also, go compare prices on the sites, to me they look fairly similar. 

By no means a red flag, but the yellow caution flag is up if you're paying attention. Traditional retailers are fighting back, don't expect them to simply lay down and get run over, but Amazon does have such a big lead, so we'll see. 

Quote

The election passing also is a cause for at least relief, as no post-midterm year has been negative since the end of World War II.

From the bull side, this one was really interesting. 1986 was a midterm year, and my assumption was that 1987 had to be red, but nope, opened at 1,895 and closed at 1,938. 

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I'm of the opinion that bulls are speaking out of both sides of their mouths at this point. 

They complain about rates rising, while somehow arguing for new all-time highs. I'm sorry, you can't argue these two things simultaneously without being a moron. If the real economy (or stock market) can't handle a real rate around 0% (inflation prob comes in around 2-2.2%, with a real FFR averaging 2.25% for the year - somewhere in these neighborhoods), and the housing market is screaming it can't, then we shouldn't be close to all-time highs and far above historical P/E's. If we get another 4 hikes, that is a real interest rate of 1% for 2019. If a real rate of 1% brings us to a recession, so be it, IMO. 

All this says to me is the last decade has been a mirage on free money - maybe we need some real pain to get out of this boom/bust, pump free money, load up on debt cycle. 

Someone is going to have pay for this ####, it'll end up being my generation who takes the brunt of it, I hate these #######s!! I'm hoping for a Santa rally, I'll sell it with two fists if nothing changes with China. 

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How is everyone's 401k YTD?

I don't check returns on my 401k all that often, but I was pretty shocked by what I saw when I just looked. 

Total return in 2018

It is huge

so gigantic I need to tease it again

-2.93%, wheeeeeee

Allocations:

Total Bond Market & TIPS = 27%

Developed Markets = 19%

Small Cap = 9%

Real Estate Index = 14%

Value Index = 9%

Total Stock Market = 8%

Growth Index = 10%

Emerging Markets = 4%

Prob going to shave some off of the RE Index, Bonds, Growth, & Developed and move some to cash and a little more into Emerging Markets. 

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I've been getting obliterated by anything international.  I'll do good to be flat on the year.  2017 was so big that it can eat for two.

I'm at a turning point where i'm considering going to active managed international funds, and pushing money out of the big cap US stuff into small value, and durable retail safe space cry in a corner stuff.  

This pullback will give me the chance to do some tax loss harvesting, so...yay?

 

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Solid opening of the 2019 fiscal year, strong start out of the gate in month 1, negative $100B, 11 months to go :thumbup: 

More fiscal stimulus!! We need more tax cuts for those that earn 8 figures and corporations that are using this money with their super genius plans buying back stock!!!

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-budget-deficit-widens-to-100-billion-in-october-2018-11-13?mod=bnbh

Who cares about burying ourselves in debt, we can just pass the baton off to the future generations. It's not like we'll actually pay this #### back anyways, amirite?

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Thoughts on Apple? 

Getting downgraded like an animal from every bank, stock has been in collapse mode - down 18-19% now since the beginning of October. 

Are iphone slowing that bad and how low can this one go? I remember looking at BABA when it was around $180 thinking how much worse can it get? Glad I never really tried to answer that question, China might be coming in for hard landing. 

Banks hate the lack of transparency and everyone feels like their new reporting is because they have something to hide, but this company is a cash cow. Their services business could be a Fortune 100 company in itself. 

 

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My real fear is the cycle is ending. Is it possible Powell knows this and is simply trying to get rates close to normal, giving him some bullets to fight the next downturn? Could he be bringing us in for a soft landing?  He wouldn't outright say that, it would create panic, but IDK, guy understands the economy better than any armchair FBG. He is undeterred by market volatility, huge 180 from his predecessor.

Also, HUGE FYI for those unaware. Powell is giving a speech in Texas tonight. Could be a huge market mover overnight. 

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On 11/13/2018 at 1:46 PM, culdeus said:

I've been getting obliterated by anything international.  I'll do good to be flat on the year.  2017 was so big that it can eat for two.

I'm at a turning point where i'm considering going to active managed international funds, and pushing money out of the big cap US stuff into small value, and durable retail safe space cry in a corner stuff.  

This pullback will give me the chance to do some tax loss harvesting, so...yay?

 

Honestly, my retirement accounts have ZERO international funds.  Many will say this is a mistake but with how global many companies are now a days, I think the need for international funds is a little over recommended.  I'm willing to give up some diversification (increase my risk) in return for better returns.

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23 hours ago, fantasycurse42 said:

Thoughts on Apple? 

Getting downgraded like an animal from every bank, stock has been in collapse mode - down 18-19% now since the beginning of October. 

Are iphone slowing that bad and how low can this one go? I remember looking at BABA when it was around $180 thinking how much worse can it get? Glad I never really tried to answer that question, China might be coming in for hard landing. 

Banks hate the lack of transparency and everyone feels like their new reporting is because they have something to hide, but this company is a cash cow. Their services business could be a Fortune 100 company in itself. 

 

I think it's a bargain at $190.  Yes, they will probably move less units going forward but they are making more money on their items now.  People are (foolishly) willing to drop $1,000 on an iPhone.  Apple will be fine.

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