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Stock Thread (22 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
chet
Footballguy
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Insoxicated
For me in that case I'll usually go:
50% sidelines / 50% in play
Admittedly that's generally not an everyday occurrence for me,
but that's my mindset.
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Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
You thought you'd make 14% in a year. Was the goal to own gold in a year or to make 14%?
If the goal was to make 14%, mission accomplished. What do you do with that money next? Where is the next 14%? Move it to whatever can best accomplish your next goal. Maybe it's in gold. You say you're bullish on it. If that meets your next investing criteria, keep it there. How will you feel in a year if it's up another 14%? How will you feel if it's back to your purchase price?
If the goal was to own gold in a year, then 14% higher price now doesn't really change anything.
If the goal was to make 14%, mission accomplished. What do you do with that money next? Where is the next 14%? Move it to whatever can best accomplish your next goal. Maybe it's in gold. You say you're bullish on it. If that meets your next investing criteria, keep it there. How will you feel in a year if it's up another 14%? How will you feel if it's back to your purchase price?
If the goal was to own gold in a year, then 14% higher price now doesn't really change anything.
All my positions are long term so I usually let them ride. One of my stocks went up 18% today and it’s up @ 35% in 3 weeks. I’m hoping for multiples in 5 years so a nice day but not going anywhere. Still kicking myself for not throwing the rest of my cash in back in October or even 3 weeks ago. I’m happy with the returns on the investments but it’d be better to have more positions and be a bit more diversified. Again, I’m looking really long term. I’ve got more than enough cash for a while and I sure as #### don’t want to pay income tax on capital gains. That’s crazy.
Actually, definitely think about that. If you make a decent wage, you are paying federal and I think state taxes on that 14% if you sell it right away. That could be 5-6% gains gone.
chet
Footballguy
I am feeling a similar feel with CYDY as I did in the late fall when I was buying as many shares as I could in the ~$0.30 range. I knew the stock was going to go higher but I didn't know when. Same feeling now. I buy a little every day but also watch for the news that will propel the share price higher.
Anyway, GLTA.
Anyway, GLTA.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
You, too, Chet. If nothing else, you've given me a needed distraction and some good entertainment between reading job descriptions. So thanks for that.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
The quad up from $.28-.29 isn't exactly a kick in the balls either.
chet
Footballguy
Yeah, I've added ~40% to my holding since the move up and I keep telling myself that I should have put the money to work at $0.30. Not a fair complaint though because the story has been significantly de-risked since then. Here's to treatment for Coronavirus and metastatic cancer!
GoBirds
Footballguy
Ok. I think it’s important to note the article linked by Chet was paid for by CytoDyn. Here is medicalnews1 pricing https://mn1.org/pricing
CytoDyn has several of these arrangements, clearly promoting the stock is important to their business model.
Regarding cancer, note all the excitement is over a few early results, which Culper covers well in their report. Here is the competition : https://www.mrknewsroom.com/news-release/oncology/mercks-keytruda-pembrolizumab-combination-chemotherapy-met-primary-endpoint-pr Note this was success for mTBC, with 800+ patient enrollment. Also note the 1000+ ongoing clinical trial for Keytruda, vs CytoDyn’s single trial. The statement in the article that cancer treatment is changing in 30 day is 100% ridiculous. While I don’t think CytoDyn will sell any product at all in 2020, there is virtually zero chance they will commercialize for cancer in 2020.
The Coronavirus indication is a complete non starter. A quick google anyone can see many realistic candidates being investigated/trialed, none are cytodyn’s option.
Viewing the CytoDyn video attached to this page, I noticed the CEO mentioned HIV was the top indication for the drug. He is right. I think the upside is detailed in the Culper report. I have some insight on the upcoming competition in this market.
Fire away with comments, questions, and criticism.
CytoDyn has several of these arrangements, clearly promoting the stock is important to their business model.
Regarding cancer, note all the excitement is over a few early results, which Culper covers well in their report. Here is the competition : https://www.mrknewsroom.com/news-release/oncology/mercks-keytruda-pembrolizumab-combination-chemotherapy-met-primary-endpoint-pr Note this was success for mTBC, with 800+ patient enrollment. Also note the 1000+ ongoing clinical trial for Keytruda, vs CytoDyn’s single trial. The statement in the article that cancer treatment is changing in 30 day is 100% ridiculous. While I don’t think CytoDyn will sell any product at all in 2020, there is virtually zero chance they will commercialize for cancer in 2020.
The Coronavirus indication is a complete non starter. A quick google anyone can see many realistic candidates being investigated/trialed, none are cytodyn’s option.
Viewing the CytoDyn video attached to this page, I noticed the CEO mentioned HIV was the top indication for the drug. He is right. I think the upside is detailed in the Culper report. I have some insight on the upcoming competition in this market.
Fire away with comments, questions, and criticism.
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chet
Footballguy
I didn't know that Cytodyn had paid for that article but I know they've done so in the past and am not surprised to see it again. It's tough for small companies to get media exposure and paying for articles, while not ideal, is a marketing strategy. However, unlike the Culper "reports", the information in those articles is provided by management and therefore must represent their honest beliefs--otherwise they risk shareholder lawsuits and SEC sanctions.
Culper, on the other hand, has no reason to tell the truth. They are hidden behind a website with no information as to who they are. Some have linked them to Germany but there's nothing to verify that either. I believe their "report" is full of lies and is a blatant attempt to manipulate the stock price down. Using their report as a source of your investment thesis is a very dangerous undertaking and I'd urge you tread lightly.
I will say that I think we are to the point where CYDY has to produce to quiet the short selling crowd. I believe the filing of their BLA, hopefully before month end, will be one catalyst. Another will be the Coronavirus treatment. Despite your inability to locate it with a Google search, it is real and the trial is slated to start.
I agree with you that the 30-day window for changing cancer is more than aggressive, your statement that there's virtually zero chance they will commercialize for cancer is equally ridiculous and somewhat naive. Also, seemingly heavily influenced by the Culper report. The most important criterion the FDA looks at is the safety data. CYDY has had ~840 people take their drug without any of them experiencing any kind of adverse side effect. That safety data is transferable for cancer, and the Chinese FDA looked at that data when evaluating and then accepting Leronlimab for possible Coronavirus treatment. The compassionate use designation granted by the FDA for metastatic breast cancer was given in large part because the drug is so safe. They now have data from 4 patients and it's spectacular. Yes, you can say that 4 patients is a small sample but when does the data become meaningful in your opinion? The FDA has a breakthrough designation application that it's evaluating and they can't ignore the results--elimination of CTCs and reduction in tumor size. The 4 patients who have taken Lironlimab have a significantly better life expectancy and that cannot be ignored.
What's your axe in this fight? I find it more than a little suspicious that your first posts here are to slam CYDY. Please explain how you got here and what your connection is to Culper, any competitor of CYDY etc.
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Punxsutawney Phil
Footballguy
Yes. I’ve mentioned this before, I’ve been a subscriber to this site for some time. Lurking on this thread, I investigated CYDY with interest to invest like I’m sure others have and came to a different conclusion. I’ve worked for big Pharma drug development for 25+ years and thought I would share my insights. So my “axe” is to have an interesting discussion and put my thoughts on the record, just like everyone else who contributes.
Also, I find the discussion here more nuanced than a typical stock board.
I’ve been around the ffa long enough to know about a guy who disappeared after a bet on the 2016 election.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Yea, I'm a holder... I thought this one through last night and I'll buy on weakness, wouldn't even mind that.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I'm on the CYDY train too. I don't think there is any way to get real concrete information on a company like that; they're a pink sheet pharma startup, what do we really expect? Gonna go digging through Seeking Alpha comments and try and decipher what is true and what isn't?
I've got enough that I'll be happy if it has a Gilead like rise in the next decade, but I won't lose sleep if they go bankrupt.
Personally, I see no reason for @chet to be delivering any false information here and fully take him at face value with his belief.
My gut says there are a ton of weak hands in this stock, and if the price stays in a similar range for too long, it will bleed as these weak holders will try to repurpose funds elsewhere. It is what it is.
I've got enough that I'll be happy if it has a Gilead like rise in the next decade, but I won't lose sleep if they go bankrupt.
Personally, I see no reason for @chet to be delivering any false information here and fully take him at face value with his belief.
My gut says there are a ton of weak hands in this stock, and if the price stays in a similar range for too long, it will bleed as these weak holders will try to repurpose funds elsewhere. It is what it is.
dkp993
Footballguy
Not sure why that’s suspicious, @chet believes in it and his advise has let a few of us to jump in and take a risk. Defending something he believes in is hardly suspicious. On the other hand a new member jumping in to warn us right at the same time the stock had what looks to be an event of shorters hitting the stock causing a dip is suspicious. I have no idea if either guys legit, both are internet strangers. But one has a long history here and a good rep, the other doesn’t.
To be clear, I’m not throwing any shade at @Whyatt. His posts are rational, not personally attacking and don’t come across as troll-ish. He could very well be a good guy with only the best of intentions, and I appreciate his opinions here. But imo if picking one to be the one who looks suspicious, the choice is pretty clear.
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Rattle and Hum
Footballguy
@Whyatt @chet
CYDY: A quick look at financials show following cash on hand:
Feb 2019 $1.59mm;
May 2019 $2.61mm;
Aug 2019 $1.8mm;
Nov 2019 $409k+.
1) Any idea what transpired from 1st to 2nd Q to create that +$1.02mm spike?
2) They burned through almost $1.4mm in last quarter noted above. Any idea where it went?
3) since they burn through $4-5mm in cash per year, when will they need to raise cash again and how will they raise this s cash? Take on debt? Issue new shares? Sell shares that the company owns?
I have no view on this company. Just trying to learn how these small biotechs survive. Thanks
CYDY: A quick look at financials show following cash on hand:
Feb 2019 $1.59mm;
May 2019 $2.61mm;
Aug 2019 $1.8mm;
Nov 2019 $409k+.
1) Any idea what transpired from 1st to 2nd Q to create that +$1.02mm spike?
2) They burned through almost $1.4mm in last quarter noted above. Any idea where it went?
3) since they burn through $4-5mm in cash per year, when will they need to raise cash again and how will they raise this s cash? Take on debt? Issue new shares? Sell shares that the company owns?
I have no view on this company. Just trying to learn how these small biotechs survive. Thanks
Capella
Footballguy
chet
Footballguy
I guess I am defensive when it comes to a group like Culper research who hides behind their website, publishes lies and misleading info and never has to answer for their claims. I have nothing against short sellers but I do not like people who try to manipulate the stock market. I don't mind differing opinions as long as both are presented in good faith.
chet
Footballguy
They've had to do micro raises since they don't produce any revenue yet. After the recent stock spike, many people exercised their warrants which caused a cash inflow to the company. Also, they have an $87.5MM milestone distribution agreement with Vyera which gave them ~$4.5MM in the last 6-8 weeks.
TLEF316
Footballguy
FWIW, my brother in law (who heads up a research lab at one of the top 3 cancer hospitals on the planet) had never heard of this when I asked him about it last night.
Doesn't necessarily mean anything and I'm still considering jumping in for a few shares, but it's safe to say that the cancer treatment community isn't monitoring this very closely (which, to me, has to be considered at least a small red flag given the claims they're making about it's potential and how soon it could be realized)
Doesn't necessarily mean anything and I'm still considering jumping in for a few shares, but it's safe to say that the cancer treatment community isn't monitoring this very closely (which, to me, has to be considered at least a small red flag given the claims they're making about it's potential and how soon it could be realized)
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I find the CYDY story and it’s drug intriguing. It is true there are near term catalysts to cause the stock to rise. It will be interesting to follow this over the next few months.
Longer term, I would caution that even an efficacious drug can struggle with FDA approval and significant sales are not guaranteed. New treatments for HIV and PREP are under development, and cost competitiveness is a factor.
Longer term, I would caution that even an efficacious drug can struggle with FDA approval and significant sales are not guaranteed. New treatments for HIV and PREP are under development, and cost competitiveness is a factor.
chet
Footballguy
To me, the bigger red flag is the CEO making outrageous claims about transforming cancer treatment in 30 days and the stock price reaching triple digits. I really detest that kind of hyperbole. I am not surprised your BIL hasn't heard of the company. It's small and really only has produced cancer results for the last month or so. I have a feeling that it will be much better known in the not so distant future.
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chet
Footballguy
What else is out there in the HIV space? Remember that CYDY has received fast track FDA approval and is going to file their BLA for combination therapy. HIV thought leaders have looked at their treatment and said that this is the next generation treatment because:
1) it's safe. No adverse side effects in any of the 840 patients who have been on the drug for years;
2) Unlike HAART, patients have not developed resistances to the drug; and
3) 80+% of patients respond to the drug.
Please show me anything that has or may have a similar track record in treating HIV.
TLEF316
Footballguy
It's really kind of a combination of both. He's saying this stuff, but my anecdotal evidence doesn't back that up.
Again, it's one guy at one hospital claiming he hasn't heard of it. So take it FWIW. But if the claims of the CEO had any merit, I have to imagine it would at least be on the radar at places like Mass General, the Mayo clinic, etc.
I mean, if you're one of the preeminent experts in your field and something is coming along that could revolutionize your field in the next couple of months, it's kinda your job to at least have heard of it.
I don't know a thing about the stock market or this company beyond what's been posted in this thread. But since I happen to have access to an incredible resource, I figured I'd share. Not trying to rock the boat or anything
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dkp993
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
HUGE CYDY BUY!!! 250 SHARES!!!
Had some dividend cash pop into an account. 5,400 shares and counting...
Had some dividend cash pop into an account. 5,400 shares and counting...
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
Just kinda putting my thoughts into words here—and I’d appreciate any responses. I’ve never played the volatility indexes before—so some input would be really great. My thoughts are this. Our markets are super stretched out and especially stretched out if you crunched the numbers in the weighted form of the market (amazon, google, apple..etc). Basically—the top six companies and momentum have really been carrying the market—fundamentals are basically out the window. If the Coronavirus economic impact effects these top six companies any more than they have already impacted Apple—I think todays volatility blip might be a warning shot of more to come. My question is—are any of you guys playing the volatility indexes—and if so—what are your recommendations?
kevzilla
Footballguy
Still long TVIX at 39.99...could have scalped 10% intraday, but holding for a spike over 50. If it doesn't happen by the end of the month, I'll probably blow it out, win or lose. Note: there is no objective evidence that I know what I'm doing.
Just saw that AGRX is sinking like a stone after-hours and thought of you. You can buy in at about $3 per share which is a pretty big discount over last week's price, even though they got an approval recently. Odd, that.
McBokonon
Footballguy
Ya, the odd part was the drop after the announcement. This is just adding fuel to the dumpster fire.
GoBirds
Footballguy
Same here, great info fellas. Chet appreciate you sharing what you found and appreciate the others with important info to consider. You don’t want to blindly follow so great to weigh these significant risks. For the guys that got in day one this has been a home run.....guys like me that stalled it may be more of when do you cut your losses or do you ride it all the way to the moon or bust.
cosjobs
Footballguy
So here is my understanding of the situation:
HAART is the standard of care, and is recognized as safe. As you indicate we are discussing the drug’s use for combination therapy. The drug’s trial was specifically geared towards patients with resistances, limiting the number of potential patients, CYDY has acknowledged this. CYDY expects to charge a significant premium for their drug, so payers are not going to be excited to switch patients to this drug unless there are no other options. It’s worth noting that a typical HIV patient isn’t able to pull out their credit card to pay their copay, they are taking what the Medicaid formulary calls for.
Your points may be all true, but PRO140 is not expected to take a large portion of the market for combination therapy. I’m told new therapies must be be both cost competitive and incorporate PREP to change the market. I’m aware of two phase III trials for this type of therapy, but I’d rather not get into details.
Sand
Footballguy
Volatility is it's own beast. It's highly volatile and, frankly, not appropriate as a plunge protector. I'd much rather own EDV or TMF if one thinks the market will take a downturn as these are usually negatively correlated with the markets.
The best hedge, of course, would be something like SH.
Bossman
Footballguy
Yeah, FDA approval on their new pill patch ... and the stock drops? So frustrating.
Sold AGRX puts at $2.50 strike ... expiring tomorrow so hopefully safe there.
I did pick up a few shares that are now biting me in the #### though.
Guess I'll be holding these for quite a while till the patch thingy starts making money.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Yeah, I get it, my last paragraph is vague. I’m treading lightly. I’ve mentioned my work experience
chet
Footballguy
chet
Footballguy
PR announcing approval to proceed with solid tumor basket trial which could lead to second BTD filing.
@Whyatt why do you think this drug will never be commercialized for cancer?
@TLEF316 I’d be interested in your BIL’s thoughts on this PR.
https://www.cytodyn.com/newsroom/press-releases/detail/387/cytodyn-receives-institutional-review-board-approval-to
@Whyatt why do you think this drug will never be commercialized for cancer?
@TLEF316 I’d be interested in your BIL’s thoughts on this PR.
https://www.cytodyn.com/newsroom/press-releases/detail/387/cytodyn-receives-institutional-review-board-approval-to
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Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
It was a red day.
APPN killing me today. Still up on my positions but damn. If you don’t blow away numbers, it can be rough. Long term hold but most of my stocks aren’t having a good day today. That said, they’d been on a roll this year. Healthy to take a bit of time off.
APPN killing me today. Still up on my positions but damn. If you don’t blow away numbers, it can be rough. Long term hold but most of my stocks aren’t having a good day today. That said, they’d been on a roll this year. Healthy to take a bit of time off.
