Stock Thread

[Freak Show 78]

Not trying to interrupt the conversation on CYDY, but I am interested in opinions on Royal Dutch Shell and Exxon Mobil Corporation as an investment over the next 5 to 8 years?

[Whyatt 260]

22 minutes ago, chet said:

Start here.  This will give you an introduction to the history of CYDY and their drug.  

PS:  Keytruda and Lironlimab will end up being complementary.  

Thanks for this. Merck has acquired 2 companies recently to trial Keytruda combinations. A combo with Merck would make Lironlimab grow so much faster than not. My opinion is this acquisition would be complete by now. 
 

Chet, I’m offering my opinion here, and willing to learn and be wrong...

Edited February 12, 2020 by Whyatt

[Bob Sacamano 9,554]

My big book of investing 

Chapter 1 - Don't invest in companies with competition

Chapter 2 - Don't invest in companies that don't get purchased by other companies

Chapter 3 - Don't invest in companies that fire executives

Chapter 4 - Don't invest in companies that miss deadlines

[Bob Sacamano 9,554]

I actually do hate that they partnered with Vyera. Ignore the financials and everything else. It's, to use a technical term, icky.

[chet 4,499]

20 minutes ago, Whyatt said:

Thanks for this. Merck has acquired 2 companies recently to trial Keytruda combinations. A combo with Merck would make Lironlimab grow so much faster than not. My opinion is this acquisition would be complete by now. 
 

Chet, I’m offering my opinion here, and willing to learn and be wrong...

I will work under the assumption that you're being genuine in your request for info.

Why would CYDY sell to Merck or any BP if they truly believe they have a game changing blockbuster?  Any of their indications is worth minimum $2BB and they have 20+.  

[chet 4,499]

46 minutes ago, Whyatt said:

My honest answer is, pretty much all of it. The mention of the CEO felonies may have been over the top. A few high level thoughts.

Broken promises. Lots of talk from the CEO, maybe speak less as the drug approval process is not straight forward. He speaks as if there is no competition-there is.

Fire CMO? Not a good look to me.

Partner with Vyera? Do you think that’s the best choice to commercialize and get top value from a new drug? What do we think sharing 50% of sales with them might indicate about projected sales?

I have been the first to say that CYDY's CEO is a poor communicator who has over promised and underdelivered.  However, small companies trading on the NASDAQ pink sheets don't merit Jack Welch like CEOs.  

That being said, the most recent delay of their combination HIV BLA submission is entirely due to the FDA requesting safety data from their mono HIV trial.  Barring any other FDA requests, the CEO is confident that the last two sections of the BLA will be submitted by the end of February.  If that happens, it will be very positive for the stock.  

Partnering for the combination HIV therapy with Vyera provides 87.5MM in milestone payments.  Is Vyera the ideal partner?  Obviously no but it de-risks CYDY in a major way and allows them to generate much needed revenue so the need for dilutive fund raising is minimized.  

[chet 4,499]

And we haven't talked about the cancer prospects for this company.  4 of 4  patients with metastatic breast cancer have been given a new lease on life because of this drug.  They believe other cancer patients with solid tumor cancer will be similarly treated with Lironlimab.  If this proves true, they will have indeed proved the drug to be a blockbuster.

[kevzilla 7,519]

1 hour ago, Freak Show said:

Not trying to interrupt the conversation on CYDY, but I am interested in opinions on Royal Dutch Shell and Exxon Mobil Corporation as an investment over the next 5 to 8 years?

I just find it increasingly difficult to back fossil fuel companies over any time frame. If yield you seek, perhaps have a look at MLPX, though midstream plays are seemingly as sensitive as the exploration companies to the vicissitudes of oil prices these days.

[guru_007 754]

7 hours ago, Freak Show said:

I am interested in opinions on Royal Dutch Shell and Exxon Mobil Corporation as an investment over the next 5 to 8 years?

I guess the question begs what exactly are you looking for in an investment?  If you're looking for income, I think XOM offers a very safe income play. It has a great yield that is easily covered.  It's relatively cheap historically speaking, and I see no danger of the dividend being cut any time soon (at least in the next 5 years).  So, if you're looking to park some cash and get 5-6%, well, you could do a lot worse, imho.

That said, growth prospects in oil and gas are not looking pretty.  Between ESG, electric vehicles and the massive increase in domestic production available here, well, big oil is going to need to find ways to cut costs to remain highly profitable.

I don't directly own any oil and gas companies any longer, the last one I held was OXY whom I'm much more familiar with then the major oil producers, however, I do own a few dividend index funds which do have big stakes in oil/gas - and for now that's all I'm comfortable holding. 

Personally, I feel there are a few big tailwinds that very likely are going to help oil in the future so I keep an eye out for buying opportunities.  First and foremost is OPEC is not pleased with the low price of oil and they can very easily tighten the screws.  And even with the US pumping like crazy, there is still massive demand abroad to be met and this can drive prices higher quickly with production cuts.  The other one is the stock market is pretty frothy right now, so most investors are not concerned at all by yield if they can get growth easily outpacing 8% historic averages.  And I'm not saying a precipitous decline is coming any time soon, but, I do think that expectations are unreasonably high right now.  Bad news will come.  Markets will drop.  There are a lot of baby boomers out there relying on income plays for day to day money and there will be a big flight from risk into the safe havens of dividend payers.

One other headwind I failed to mention, and I don't have my notes in front of me as I'm typing from work, but there is some massive debt in oil companies right now, some crazy number like 4x the yearly revenue in all oil is indebted.  So you need to look for who owes what, because if/when rates rise, these companies are in big big trouble.

[fantasycurse42 8,316]

Safe yield = VZ imo.

CCI, I mentioned it years ago, current yield is around 3%, I’ve basically doubled up on it in the last few years with dividends reinvested, maybe a little late to get on this ride though.

[fantasycurse42 8,316]

Barrick Gold increases dividend, brings debt down to a little above $2B, it was around $12B in 2012. Symbol is GOLD if anyone is interested. Nice earnings this morning.

[Jayrok 3,658]

8 hours ago, Whyatt said:

Big pharma is always looking to compliment their pipelines and are loaded with cash. CYDY is relatively cheap with a presumably a product near commercialization. If the product has so much value, why wasn’t CYDY acquired?

I had this question last week.  I thought Gilead was/is going to acquire the company.  Maybe they're (or some other big pharma) still working on it.  Maybe they were the driver behind the Culper report in a move to cause distrust with the CEO and drive the price down as far as possible before making them an offer they can't refuse.   I know.  Maybe it hasn't happened yet because they are waiting to see trial results from a larger patient grouping.  

On the other side, maybe N. Pourhassan is resisting because he believes he has something special on his hands and doesn't want to let it go just yet.  I don't know anything about the field so just spit-balling.  

[Whyatt 260]

8 hours ago, chet said:

I will work under the assumption that you're being genuine in your request for info.

Why would CYDY sell to Merck or any BP if they truly believe they have a game changing blockbuster?  Any of their indications is worth minimum $2BB and they have 20+.  

Thanks for assuming I am being genuine. I perceived some contributors to this thread diving in deep on CYDY and felt the need to offer a contrarian view, as I know the industry a bit more than most.

If this company is sitting on a $40 billion drug, do you really think this company and partners are the best to execute on this? Currently the company is valued at less than $1 billion, do you think the current valuation is is so far off they wouldn’t sell for $3 billion?

[Whyatt 260]

In pretty much all cases, insiders have lots of stock and hope for the acquisition. Is the insider ownership available on CYDY?

[chet 4,499]

2 minutes ago, Whyatt said:

Thanks for assuming I am being genuine. I perceived some contributors to this thread diving in deep on CYDY and felt the need to offer a contrarian view, as I know the industry a bit more than most.

If this company is sitting on a $40 billion drug, do you really think this company and partners are the best to execute on this? Currently the company is valued at less than $1 billion, do you think the current valuation is is so far off they wouldn’t sell for $3 billion?

As I've said above, there's nothing perfect about Vyera or the CEO.  From what I've seen however, the CEO knows what he has and would not sell for $3BB--I believe he's already been approached by BP but has rebuffed them.  They have some super preferred shares to ward off any kind of hostile takeover.  He thinks the stock is way undervalued and they get to 3BB+ market cap through stock price appreciation by YE or sooner.  On last week's conference call he said he thinks their ultimate stock price is in the high triple digits--I found that irresponsible but it shows what he thinks of the value of the company.

[chet 4,499]

7 minutes ago, Whyatt said:

In pretty much all cases, insiders have lots of stock and hope for the acquisition. Is the insider ownership available on CYDY?

I am sure it is and they just awarded themselves more stock last week.  This is the exception to your pretty much all cases--I don't think they want to sell.  They believe they have something that could be as big as Keytruda (~$22BB in revenue in 2022) and they want to attain that value for their shareholders.

[chet 4,499]

And they just announced their China deal.

[urbanhack 12,127]

9 hours ago, Whyatt said:

My honest answer is, pretty much all of it. The mention of the CEO felonies may have been over the top. A few high level thoughts.

Broken promises. Lots of talk from the CEO, maybe speak less as the drug approval process is not straight forward. He speaks as if there is no competition-there is.

Fire CMO? Not a good look to me.

Partner with Vyera? Do you think that’s the best choice to commercialize and get top value from a new drug? What do we think sharing 50% of sales with them might indicate about projected sales?

Good thing this never happens in business.

[Sputnikv8 491]

It feels like things got personal in here.  
 

[Bob Sacamano 9,554]

Know nothing about Longen. Objectively good partner?

[stbugs 2,962]

6 minutes ago, Sneegor said:

I really hope you guys aren't putting more than 1% of your investment assets into a penny stock.

This I agree with in totality. I won’t be upset if this thing goes up 10x and I only have 5000 shares. That one guy saying he and his wife have over 100k is crazy. That’s the same guy who starts some oddball thread and mentions he gambled behind his wife’s back. Maybe it works out or maybe he’s just lying on a message board. Even Chet has way more assets so that if this went to zero, I’m sure he’d be fine. I’m good with my less than 1% skin in the game.

[Sand 5,507]

9 hours ago, Freak Show said:

Not trying to interrupt the conversation on CYDY, but I am interested in opinions on Royal Dutch Shell and Exxon Mobil Corporation as an investment over the next 5 to 8 years?

Really tough.  Alternative energy growth rates are down, but energy demand is still increasing.  Yet we have huge pawns all over the board moving with respect to oil prices, which makes it incredibly hard to see where that market is going.  XOM is pretty debt heavy and RDS has a massive debt load (right there with T in the "oh crap" pile).  CVX has been driving theirs down (I own a decent bit of CVX). 

Honestly, my little personal perspective - right now great swing trade.  I think oil companies will reflate after the virus item.  Once CVX hits 120+ again I'm selling and waiting until it drops near 110 to buy again.  I see a lot of yo-yo in this market continuing.  

[chet 4,499]

7 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

Know nothing about Longen. Objectively good partner?

Yes.  Multi billion $ company with good connections in China.

[Sand 5,507]

17 minutes ago, Sneegor said:

I really hope you guys aren't putting more than 1% of your investment assets into a penny stock.

Did the penny stock thing - right around 2000, if memory serves.  Small money, big memories.

[fantasycurse42 8,316]

25 minutes ago, stbugs said:

This I agree with in totality. I won’t be upset if this thing goes up 10x and I only have 5000 shares. That one guy saying he and his wife have over 100k is crazy. That’s the same guy who starts some oddball thread and mentions he gambled behind his wife’s back. Maybe it works out or maybe he’s just lying on a message board. Even Chet has way more assets so that if this went to zero, I’m sure he’d be fine. I’m good with my less than 1% skin in the game.

This was my exact point on the previous page. Same here on my 5,142 shares. When Chet steps in and buys 50k shares, it is different than someone else buying 50k shares. He is clearly a believer and I'm sure his faith here is strong, but I'm also pretty sure everything he has invested won't change his life if this goes to zero.

ETA: & yes, when I read someone else who doesn't have Chet money buying over 100k shares, I can only shake my head. If I was to lose $125k on this stock, it wouldn't be pleasant. 

Edited February 12, 2020 by fantasycurse42

[Whyatt 260]

48 minutes ago, Sputnikv8 said:

It feels like things got personal in here.  
 

That’s not how I see it. It’s fair to be cynical of my motivation to post here.

[Whyatt 260]

17 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

This was my exact point on the previous page. Same here on my 5,142 shares. When Chet steps in and buys 50k shares, it is different than someone else buying 50k shares. He is clearly a believer and I'm sure his faith here is strong, but I'm also pretty sure everything he has invested won't change his life if this goes to zero.

ETA: & yes, when I read someone else who doesn't have Chet money buying over 100k shares, I can only shake my head. If I was to lose $125k on this stock, it wouldn't be pleasant. 

This is exactly what motivated me to register an account and post.

[fantasycurse42 8,316]

Quote

Powell says Fed must use forward guidance, purchases in future downturn. “Our traditional tool, of course, is interest rates. And low rates are not really a choice anymore: They are a fact of reality. So we will have less room to cut. That means it’s much more likely that we’ll have to turn to the tools that we used in the financial crisis when we hit the lower bound. Which is forward guidance – which says it will keep rates low – and then it’s also large-scale asset purchases of longer-term securities to drive longer-term rates down and support the economy. We will use those tools, I believe we will use them aggressively should the need arise to do so. There’s no need to do that now. But we will use those tools aggressively

If you don't understand why I love gold, I don't know how else to explain it, but I'll do my best since the hypothesis has only gotten stronger in the past 2 years since I started building my hoard:

1) The Fed (and all CBs really) have almost turned the US markets into the safe haven. This is an extremely dangerous game. While people are truly starting to believe that recessions and bear markets are impossible, lulled to a sense of safety (by the same people who said the subprime crisis was well contained nonetheless), the central banks are creating an environment that can only end in disaster, they're truly ####### morons. One day in the future (who knows when), the chickens will come home to roost. When they do, you'll see printing on a scale we haven't seen before. Gold can only be mined, it can't be created from thin air. I will sell my gold one day, but not until the chaos created by CBs comes to fruition. Based on this bull market and gold rising step by step with equities, I can only believe a lot of smart money sees it the same, otherwise, gold would be under $1k, prob closer to $500.

2) Interest rates won't rise until we've printed too much debt that the demand isn't strong enough to support it... It will happen one day, it's a simple law of supply and demand, but again, who knows when and prob not for a long time. Yield historically has been the argument against gold, but we love in a world where yield is disappearing, so gold is only getting stronger. 

3) When they turn the printing presses on aggressively again (and right now they're covertly on, disguised as a fix for the repo market), your dollars will be worth less. 

Put these almost undeniable facts together and gold is a hedge against central banks, imo. Your dollars will absolutely be worth less, but your gold will be worth more.

I did learn a valuable lesson though in speaking with my accountant, gold is taxed as a collectible, not as an equity for long term gains, 28%  ... This is why my new purchases are in miners and not the underlying metal or ETFs, and Barrick to me is the best. Kinda sucks that I will be slaughtered by Uncle Sam as I move out of the gold ETFs. 

[Bob Sacamano 9,554]

12 minutes ago, Whyatt said:

This is exactly what motivated me to register an account and post.

So, you stumbled upon a fantasy football website and happened to start on page 330 of the investments thread?

Makes sense.

[Whyatt 260]

9 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

So, you stumbled upon a fantasy football website and happened to start on page 330 of the investments thread?

Makes sense.

No, I’ve been a subscriber for years. I’ve sporadically read the forums and have learned from posts like fantasycurse’s above. So I thought I’d add my perspective.

Maybe no one wants to hear a different point of view? 

[Bob Sacamano 9,554]

9 hours ago, kevzilla said:

I just find it increasingly difficult to back fossil fuel companies over any time frame. If yield you seek, perhaps have a look at MLPX, though midstream plays are seemingly as sensitive as the exploration companies to the vicissitudes of oil prices these days.

I've had RDSA for several years, and I was planning to sit on it and just take the 7% dividend for a good long time. And yet the longer I hold it, the more I think about selling it. I've been hedging during fuel price dips with airlines. SAVE is the latest, though that's definitely a trade and not an investment (sub-9 P/E, sub-.8 PEG, no China or 737MAX exposure, low fuels prices and no fuel hedge iirc for them). As much as anything, owning it feels more and more incompatible with my world view. One of the reasons I bought a Tesla was to support advancements towards less dependence on fossil fuels. Yet here I sit owning Shell? You may have spurred me to make Shell and Spirit a package deal. When one goes, the other does, too.  

[Bob Sacamano 9,554]

2 minutes ago, Whyatt said:

No, I’ve been a subscriber for years. I’ve sporadically read the forums and have learned from posts like fantasycurse’s above. So I thought I’d add my perspective.

Maybe no one wants to hear a different point of view? 

I always want to hear different POVs. It's just curious timing. And I'm more skeptical than most. And ###hole enough to voice it.

[Aaron Rudnicki 9,009]

55 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

 

ETA: & yes, when I read someone else who doesn't have Chet money buying over 100k shares, I can only shake my head. If I was to lose $125k on this stock, it wouldn't be pleasant. 

I don't think you know how much $ Cav has so not sure you need to worry much about him saying he bought 125k shares.

[fantasycurse42 8,316]

5 minutes ago, Aaron Rudnicki said:

I don't think you know how much $ Cav has so not sure you need to worry much about him saying he bought 125k shares.

This is petty, but I am curious why you direct this at me and not the person who made the original comment that I replied to? 

[cosjobs 14,798]

1 hour ago, chet said:

And they just announced their China deal.

The market response to this send relatively tepid. What are ramifications for current holders? Does this partnership dilute our share value?

 

BRIEF-Cytodyn Signs Letter Of Intent For The Joint Development And Licensing Of Leronlimab In China With Longen China Group

REUTERS - 9:17 AM ET

Feb 12 (Reuters) - Cytodyn Inc (CYDY):

* CYTODYN SIGNS LETTER OF INTENT FOR THE JOINT DEVELOPMENT AND LICENSING OF LERONLIMAB IN CHINA WITH LONGEN CHINA GROUP

* CYTODYN INC (CYDY) - CO, LONGEN WILL BEGIN EXPLORING OPPORTUNITIES FOR LERONLIMAB FOR TREATMENT OF 2019 NOVEL CORONAVIRUS AND CANCER Source text for Eikon: Further company coverage:

(c) Reuters 2020. Al

[Bob Sacamano 9,554]

I have a refrigerator box Cav can live in. So no worries there.

[dkp993 6,999]

5 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

I always want to hear different POVs. It's just curious timing. And I'm more skeptical than most. And ###hole enough to voice it.

This. 3 times last night I went to post the question you posed of how he found our little little thread on our FF forum but ultimately didn’t as Chet and him were having an interesting discussion.  Glad you did though.  

[Aaron Rudnicki 9,009]

8 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

This is petty, but I am curious why you direct this at me and not the person who made the original comment that I replied to? 

because it keeps getting brought up and you specifically called him out for "not having Chet money"

EDIT: honestly, I skimmed the post you replied to and didn't see the comment originally. that was not necessary either IMO.

just feel like this thread is getting sidetracked by too many people expressing concern over GB Cav's enthusiastic investment here. Let's move on.

[cosjobs 14,798]

1 hour ago, stbugs said:

This I agree with in totality. I won’t be upset if this thing goes up 10x and I only have 5000 shares. That one guy saying he and his wife have over 100k is crazy. That’s the same guy who starts some oddball thread and mentions he gambled behind his wife’s back. Maybe it works out or maybe he’s just lying on a message board. Even Chet has way more assets so that if this went to zero, I’m sure he’d be fine. I’m good with my less than 1% skin in the game.

I'm generally strongly opposed to gossipng about other people in here. 

Also you have no idea what his percentage stake is. It could be less than yours.

General advice is great, targeting other posters with judgements, not so much

[dkp993 6,999]

2 minutes ago, cosjobs said:

The market response to this send relatively tepid. What are ramifications for current holders? Does this partnership dilute our share value?

 

BRIEF-Cytodyn Signs Letter Of Intent For The Joint Development And Licensing Of Leronlimab In China With Longen China Group

REUTERS - 9:17 AM ET

Feb 12 (Reuters) - Cytodyn Inc (CYDY):

* CYTODYN SIGNS LETTER OF INTENT FOR THE JOINT DEVELOPMENT AND LICENSING OF LERONLIMAB IN CHINA WITH LONGEN CHINA GROUP

* CYTODYN INC (CYDY) - CO, LONGEN WILL BEGIN EXPLORING OPPORTUNITIES FOR LERONLIMAB FOR TREATMENT OF 2019 NOVEL CORONAVIRUS AND CANCER Source text for Eikon: Further company coverage:

(c) Reuters 2020. Al

I think this deal has been expected to happen for a bit and it was also mentioned in the video Chet posted on the last page, so it was probably already priced in with the market is my thoughts on why it didn’t move a ton.  

[cosjobs 14,798]

36 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

So, you stumbled upon a fantasy football website and happened to start on page 330 of the investments thread?

Makes sense.

More likely he googled cydy

[stbugs 2,962]

1 minute ago, cosjobs said:

I'm generally strongly opposed to gossipng about other people in here. 

Also you have no idea what his percentage stake is. It could be less than yours.

General advice is great, targeting other posters with judgements, not so much

No I don’t, but I do legitimately worry and/or have a bit of disbelief. It’s an anonymous message board and I take a lot with a grain of salt.

Also, I’m not judging, just saying that in reading some of his posts and threads that if true, seem to make it more risky than others in here.

Anyway, I’ll refrain from making anyone all upset. If he loses his shirt somehow, I won’t care, it’s could be his last shirt or maybe a tiny portion of his huge wardrobe of shirts. I won’t care and won’t comment. Sound good?

[fantasycurse42 8,316]

2 minutes ago, Aaron Rudnicki said:

because it keeps getting brought up and you specifically called him out for "not having Chet money"

Quote

 That one guy saying he and his wife have over 100k is crazy. That’s the same guy who starts some oddball thread and mentions he gambled behind his wife’s back. Maybe it works out or maybe he’s just lying on a message board. 

So that quote didn't bother you enough to elicit a reaction, but me assuming someone doesn't have as much money as our possibly most wealthy poster did? If he does have Chet money,, good for him! It was an assumption, and if it offended Cav I'm sorry to him. I find your chain of logic singling my comment odd here. Just my .02, but we can leave it there. 

[cosjobs 14,798]

2 minutes ago, stbugs said:

No I don’t, but I do legitimately worry and/or have a bit of disbelief. It’s an anonymous message board and I take a lot with a grain of salt.

Also, I’m not judging, just saying that in reading some of his posts and threads that if true, seem to make it more risky than others in here.

Anyway, I’ll refrain from making anyone all upset. If he loses his shirt somehow, I won’t care, it’s could be his last shirt or maybe a tiny portion of his huge wardrobe of shirts. I won’t care and won’t comment. Sound good?

Cool. Also let's not bring up long ago, likely drunken posts where we talk about our spouses

[Aaron Rudnicki 9,009]

1 minute ago, fantasycurse42 said:

So that quote didn't bother you enough to elicit a reaction, but me assuming someone doesn't have as much money as our possibly most wealthy poster did? If he does have Chet money,, good for him! It was an assumption, and if it offended Cav I'm sorry to him. I find your chain of logic singling my comment odd here. Just my .02, but we can leave it there. 

please see my edited post. thanks.

[fantasycurse42 8,316]

Agreed, everyone buy as much CYDY as they like. 

[St. Louis Bob 6,285]

21 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

I have a refrigerator box Cav can live in. So no worries there.

He can room with @UniAlias.  Actually that sounds pretty great.

[stbugs 2,962]

4 minutes ago, cosjobs said:

Cool. Also let's not bring up long ago, likely drunken posts where we talk about our spouses

Let’s get serious. It’s a message board, don’t post stupid things if you don’t want people bringing them up. Sorry I remembered some of his (or your?) posts and legitimately wondered if he was doing something way too risky. Maybe I actually genuinely worried. If I was an #######, I’d be hoping for a huge dive and then reply to his post with a 🤣. 

[St. Louis Bob 6,285]

I bought 4-5k shares on NVDA on the recommendation of another poster, I don't know 7-8 years ago or something, maybe a 20k total investment, and another prominent poster that hasn't been around in many years PMed me I was crazy and to dump it.  The person who PMed had made a fortune in the stock market so I valued his opinion and sold.

 

STILL

 

 

HURTS

 

fwiw

[St. Louis Bob 6,285]

and I'm out of here again.