cosjobs
Footballguy
Just like when you get the wrong betting ticket at the track, keep it.
It might be God intervening on your behalf.
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Stock Thread (14 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
It might be God intervening on your behalf.
cosjobs
Footballguy
cross posted from retirement thread
I recently retired and my wife will next year.
Our current assets are:
50% real property (home and rental equity)
30% 401K
5% Precious metals
5% Roth IRA (High risk/reward stock - CYDY)
15% cash (money market)
===================
My desire is to just maintain our value for the next 6-12 months (maybe longer) or maybe make a little money if things go to #### (Precious metals)
I am thinking of allocating my 401K to 1/3 "5 to go fund", 1/3 Inflation protected Treasury bonds. 1/3 Long term govt bonds
I'm also thinking of moving half of my cash to more precious metals.
With my desire simply to not lose any of my money (other than the 5% Roth gamble or precious metals if I'm chicken little), is there a safer mix someone would recommend?
I recently retired and my wife will next year.
Our current assets are:
50% real property (home and rental equity)
30% 401K
5% Precious metals
5% Roth IRA (High risk/reward stock - CYDY)
15% cash (money market)
===================
My desire is to just maintain our value for the next 6-12 months (maybe longer) or maybe make a little money if things go to #### (Precious metals)
I am thinking of allocating my 401K to 1/3 "5 to go fund", 1/3 Inflation protected Treasury bonds. 1/3 Long term govt bonds
I'm also thinking of moving half of my cash to more precious metals.
With my desire simply to not lose any of my money (other than the 5% Roth gamble or precious metals if I'm chicken little), is there a safer mix someone would recommend?
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BassNBrew
Footballguy
siffoin
Footballguy
Just so I understand - what you are mostly trying to do is protect the 30% in the 401k?
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
first world problems, I know
General Malaise
Footballguy
Retired from what?
culdeus
Footballguy
cosjobs
Footballguy
I guess.
I could not do a quick real estate transaction to receive the bulk, so that will remain at risk (to what degree, I have no idea).
Also, I think the cash and precious metals are about as secure as I could get (?)
I am comfortable with the 5% bet on CYDY
If you think I should re-balance the cash and metals, or sell my rent house, please let me know your thoughts.
I appreciate your input
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
cosjobs
Footballguy
cosjobs
Footballguy
siffoin
Footballguy
Spitballin' here. And the comments are just for free - and worth every penny you pay for them.
#1) The market is bullish. IMO it would take some time for it to actually turn bearish. By some time, I don't mean hours or days or weeks...I'm talking months.
2) The bull market is extremely over-extended. By extreme what I mean is I'm of the opinion that there has never been a time if our lives where the market has been this far out of whack in regards to price:value. Technically - it is what I would consider ripe for some type of correction. That doesn't mean today is a top. Or tomorrow. But I would suggest that soon, it would be "natural" for the market to begin some corrective move - just to get back in-line with the bullish trend. For example if the $SPY were to drop 20 points...we'd still be WAY over-valued and my opinion wouldn't change. A 15-20% correction wouldn't move the needle on the LT bull trend. At these current levels we are in dangerous territory if you care about that 15-20%.
3) I'm $GYPR(ing) to protect and prepare for opportunity if and when the market does decide to come back towards "balance". It's not a time for panic - sell everything. Rather a taking a calm perspective with future opportunity in mind.
4) So what to do: You've got 15% sitting in cash. Would you consider a hedge type of play on that? For simplicity you might want to take a look at the ETF $TAIL. It's a tail risk strategy that invests about 90% in US Treasuries and then out of the $ Puts on the $SPY. In a corrective move investors will tend to flee towards treasuries, volatility will increase (+ value to the puts), and the puts themselves will increase in value. If we're wrong...$TAIL will decline, but that loss will be off-set by the increase of your already held long positions. In addition because the $VIX is pretty low, the timing is decent and $TAIL is pretty cheap. If and when the corrective moves comes - look to unload at levels of support. Right now that would be $290ish and $280ish - being attentive if the $SPY were dropping towards those levels and finding the right time for YOU to unload. This isn't about being perfect. It's about developing a plan for a "natural" corrective move and following that plan as it unfolds.
5) I'm hesitant to post this type of stuff because if I had my way I'd want "most" of you to make money. (I kid you Trump loving lunatics - I even want you to make money too- I guess that's the "socialist" in me). Therefore, please do your own due diligence and mostly don't do something stupid because I posted something stupid.
Bossman
Footballguy
No one else interested in free money? Just me?
Both the $7 Feb 21 and $5 March Puts were $1 but likely down a bit from there as the stock grew (and we close in on expiration)
I actually wish the $7 puts executed when it dipped below a week ago .... as the stock is closer to $8 now. Would have been a win / win had they been put to me and I held them.
Thanks for the tip. I plan to look closely at this on Friday morning.
ETA: The bottom fell out of the February $7 puts (trading at about 35cents) and the March puts are very rich (over a buck) but they come right after an earnings announcement. That's a high-risk, low reward trade. I'm not selling those puts.
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siffoin
Footballguy
I'm a technical observer of market value. If u think it's cheap, I say go for it. I'm comfortable with my take.
Capella
Footballguy
Bossman
Footballguy
a $1 put on a $7 stock is what I call "juicy".
You can sell 20 Put contracts at $1 ... make $2k profit ... with very little risk because the stock price is so small.
I'm in for 40 ... so $4k between my $7 and $5 contracts. Not making me wealthy like my AMZN stocks but the extra few thousand certainly doesn't hurt my portfolio.
Worst case? NVAX would have to tank to $4 before the March strike ... the stock is put to me ... and at that I still break even.
I don't think a virus vaccine companies stock will be tanking in the next month or two. Just my opinion.
djmich
Footballguy
Never heard of $TAIL, seems like an interesting way to hedge without having to directly buy options, will check it out...thanks SIff
cosjobs
Footballguy
I'm kind of stupid on a lot of this. By $TAIL do you mean TAIL?
Or am I short selling TAIL? or what?
culdeus
Footballguy
I've been throwing money at Tail most of my life, and I can conclude most of the time it's not a good investment.
siffoin
Footballguy
I think I came off as a bit of a #####. I apologize. I'm not here to say the market is crashing because I don't believe that. Perhaps an analogy would be like this. There is a heavy snow pack,and conditions are ripe for an avalanche. My work suggests that such conditions are present. I'm in here telling you that such conditions are present. It's possible that an avalanche does not occur. And if an avalanche does not occur it doesn't mean that the conditions were not ripe for one.
I've become quite reluctant to post the type of market work I do because I'm not interested in I-Spats. It's why I rarely post in here and don't post any charts publicly. There's some other stuff I really wanted to put out there, but in the end it's not worth the battle with people who are obnoxiously aggressive and arrogant. I do want people to do well, and I think the purpose of my post today was to just give a heads up. And I'm cool being wrong (my life is a whole lot easier if I am), and not here to argue the position. But my position remains...this market is over-extended - I can't find a time when it was more.
If you or anyone has a successful investment strategy - my thoughts is stick with that and ignore anything from me.
siffoin
Footballguy
cosjobs
Footballguy
siffoin
Footballguy
Denotes a Ticker Symbol.
If I said go buy some TAIL - you might take that to go a strip club.
Sand
Footballguy
Current market is at about 1 sigma over 30 year run rate. 1999-2000 was a ~3 sigma event. What do you see right now that gives you specific pause?
Appreciate the input, as always!
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McBokonon
Footballguy
Can’t answer for him, but it’s standard to put the $ in front of stock tickets when you’re looking for info on Google, Twitter, etc.
Sand
Footballguy
BTW, never heard of TAIL before now. Interesting item. I might actually read the prospectus (
).I've always had in my head if I really wanted to hedge I'd buy a combo of TMF and SH. I may rethink this if TAIL is the ETF version of the plunge protection team.
siffoin
Footballguy
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Would love to hear whatever conclusion you draw here.BTW, never heard of TAIL before now. Interesting item. I might actually read the prospectus (
I've always had in my head if I really wanted to hedge I'd buy a combo of TMF and SH. I may rethink this if TAIL is the ETF version of the plunge protection team.
Is 15% enough of a hedge for comfort?
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
There are a significant number of people here who love reading your thoughts and greatly appreciate the time you take to post them.
I started to say don't worry so much about what ipeople think, but that would pretty much render the purpose of my first sentence useless.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
This part wasn't directed at sand. Just an additional, misplaced question that came to mind as I was reading.
siffoin
Footballguy
Yes. Understand there are likely better ways to hedge. But they require a level of complexity. You might not be able to initiate a trade in $TMF in a Vanguard account...or even Fidelity if you don't sign some form stating you are a high risk investor. Some folks don't know how to properly utilize options or futures if they even have the ability to trade them. So the idea for $TAIL is the "everyman's" hedge...something for Cosjobs to research and see if that might provide some protection without going full scale selling of his house/portfolio- especially in the present market environment. Again - it might not be for everyone...but is an option.Sand said:BTW, never heard of TAIL before now. Interesting item. I might actually read the prospectus (
I've always had in my head if I really wanted to hedge I'd buy a combo of TMF and SH. I may rethink this if TAIL is the ETF version of the plunge protection team.
Good luck. I hope it works out for you. As a general rule of thumb, I'm not a seller of puts of speculative companies when it spans an earnings report. Might not seem likely, but a drop below $3 per share is absolutely possible in which case your 2K profit flips to a significant loss on one day if earnings disappoint. I don't know enough about the company to put odds on it. No matter, the odds are probably in your favor on this one. Just not the dice I want to roll on this one. The February puts would have been up my alley but I missed that window earlier this week.Bossman said:
Sand
Footballguy
I'm on Fidelity and I shot all those locks off.
A good question to ask yourself as you try to fall asleep tonight...Bob Sacamano said:
Bossman
Footballguy
Alright, if you like a Feb put then here's one I've been keeping to myself...
AGRX trading above $4 .... selling Feb 21 $2.50 puts at .45
Fair warning ... about to announce FDA approval on product ... which is why this is so rich with only 8 days to expiration.
Sell 20 put contracts and take the $900.
You put up $4100 to profit $900. That right there is juicy.
Your risk is if FDA does not approve and stock drops below $2.05 ... which I could see this falling to $1.50 in that scenario.
Don Hutson
Footballguy
Investors taking their money out of Asian markets are investing it in the US. That should continue as long as the US avoids large numbers of people infected with Coronavirus.fantasycurse42 said:
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
Just some information on the possible ramifications of the coronavirus on the global economy. The four largest economies on the planet are the US, China, Germany and Japan in that order. We know for a fact that the Chinese economy has been completely stalled by it. Some experts project that Chinese GDP will drop from a 5-6% growth rate to a -6% growth rate. The Germans just released numbers that show that their economy has stagnated. This also would be an indication that the majoirty of the economies in the EU are also probably stagnating. Japan has already gotten some exposure to the coronavirus--and the number of cases seems to be increasing there. If this thing manifests into anything of concern in Japan---we're talking about 3 of the 4 worlds biggest economies suffering downturns or treading water. In a global economy--there is no way that this wouldn't result in some collateral damage. It's already causing some supply chain issues here. Our markets have effectively brushed this thing off so far in regards to pricing--and I don't see how this won't catch up at some point .
There have been many days where our markets are down in the pre-markets as that's when metrics and risk actually play a larger part in being factored in prices--but by the end of the trading day--the market is flat or up. That's a clear sign that the market is being irrational and being primarily propelled by momentum. Momentum can only last so long and at some point the markets will have to acknowledge and factor in risk. This might not happen for a very long while--or it can happen next week--so I don't want to come across as being a fear monger or a pessimist. I still have a lot of exposure in the market myself -- but I've also been cashing in on some profits.
There have been many days where our markets are down in the pre-markets as that's when metrics and risk actually play a larger part in being factored in prices--but by the end of the trading day--the market is flat or up. That's a clear sign that the market is being irrational and being primarily propelled by momentum. Momentum can only last so long and at some point the markets will have to acknowledge and factor in risk. This might not happen for a very long while--or it can happen next week--so I don't want to come across as being a fear monger or a pessimist. I still have a lot of exposure in the market myself -- but I've also been cashing in on some profits.
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Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
GOLD. Their balance sheet has been getting extremely strong, their CEO seems to be quite smart, they just raised their dividend, and they've taken their debt from $12B to $2B in the last 8 years.
If I would've understood the tax ramifications more in depth, I'd have owned them instead of IAU, now I own both as I begin trimming IAU and shifting more of that to GOLD.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
It's the central banks, it is that simple, imo.
Here; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL
So the balance sheet went from $1T to $4T, they tried reducing it, the market tanks, they obviously reverse course, and now we're closing back in on where it was before they tried to normalize (
) it. GREATEST ECONOMY WE'VE EVER SEEN!You'll notice, when they started pumping it back up again in September to provide liquidity to the repo market (really just covert QE 4), the market started flying again... And wallah, we're up 10% since their pump began.
#GOLD (they can't print that from thin air)
Bossman
Footballguy
Had an order in for 600 shares this morning and did not trigger. Revised order for 1000 at the now $1 higher price tag.
Should have just paid market instead of limit order. Oh well. In it for the long haul anyway.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I was going to buy twice as much as I did when I noted the buy on Monday... I mulled it over and decided I would buy half my position in the low $18s and then DCA. When I looked at the trading range, they looked like they were near the top of it (still are), but I think they might be setting up to break out of that range... Nonetheless, I'm glad I put a nice chunk in, but really, kicking myself for not buying the whole lot.
Regardless, I feel relatively safe here, while not shielding myself from gains. Honestly, if they keep doing what they're doing, and the FED pumps their balance sheet like I anticipate, I can see this doubling in 5 years.
To me the biggest risks here are A) substantially higher interest rates B) the Fed turning the printing presses off... I see neither of those likely.
