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Stock Thread (23 Viewers)

siffoin said:
Sarnoff said:
Siff just tweeted an "uh oh", perhaps the Perfect Indicator just swung from Bull to Bear today?
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The PI has been pretty accurate at identifying turn points in the mkt. In the past 5 years or so it has pegged a number of those points. At bearish turns the mkt typically dropped about minimum 50+ pts (sometimes it's been more, maybe a few times a little less). At bullish turns the markets has run minimum 100+ pts. In hindsight we can say ignoring the bearish PI signals and adding on the bullish ones would have been the ideal strategy since the 09 lows. But one could definitely TRADE the PI successfully- if the win rate isn't 100% it's pretty close.

Now we have the PI flipping bearish today. So we can probably expect a drop of 50+ pts from the highs of today. A PI trend trend typically last at a minimum of a few weeks...sometimes they can last for months.

What has me more piqued is that longer term DOW major bull/bear indicator. This was an indicator that I discovered/developed last year - and posted an article at Steelhedge about a impending drop- that didn't happen. But I've kept the chart and studied in the months since. I posted some charts of that with an explanation prior to the big drop today.

Honestly - if we were at some kind of significant top and this indicator were to peg it - I'd be shocked.

With that said - technically we're sitting on a pretty significant level of support and unfortunately the next level is about 130 SP500 pts from here at 1815ish.

We should see a bounce of some kind within a few days - it's what the charts look like when that bounce completes that will give a better picture of where we sit within the 5 year major bull trend.

Not including today's sell-off --the market action of the futs for the last few days - seems "off". I want to say something is rotten and the big boys have the message and are passing off to the bag holders. But that's probably just the pessimist in me. Color me concerned- but not panicked. Yet.
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The dirtbags at Goldman raised their year end forecast on the S&P from 1900 to 2050 yesterday. That makes me want to agree with you. It seems like whenever there is an upgrade to anything, you should sell almost immediately because it then tanks.

siffoin said:
In 1999-early 2000, at the close of the market you could ring Maria Bartiromo's panties and fill a small swimming pool on a daily basis.
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:lmao: :lmao: So hot

 
Skylord said:
Earnings season question. How do you correlate what the market is expecting in terms of earnings and how much a beat or loss will affect the overall stock price? As a point of reference, I was looking at this page:

http://l2.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/cDxpAxjWsX3qiOBXCJL3ww--/YXBwaWQ9eW5ld3M7cT04NQ--/http://globalfinance.zenfs.com/en_us/Finance/US_AFTP_SILICONALLEY_H_LIVE/GOLDMAN_We_Think_These_22-5a33e4c6f05da894d1ab493293ee480e

GS predicts CNX will dramatically outperform what the market is looking for. Since this article was posted, CNX has dropped considerably. So my question is, if CNX hits the consensus number (0.26) where will that take the stock price? If it hits GS number (0.37) where will that take the stock price?
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Anybody know? The more I think about it, the more curious I get.

 
####### Chipotle... Just an unstoppable force. If the market does have a "correction" and a lot of good performers come down, I will make an entrance into this beast.

 
Siff, saw your notes on the site... ADRE follower here :thumbup: 5.5% this month, ####### awesome GB!!!

I assume barring some unforeseen disaster, it'll be difficult for anything to overtake that as most bullish in August? Are you going to be updating monthly rotation while you're away?

Anyways, enjoy the R&R :thumbup:

 
Drifter said:
swirvenirvin said:
Drifter said:
Drifter said:
Drifter said:
Trucking companies all doing well in the market in Q4 driven by the strong lead indicators in Retail. Q4 Spot rate market has been extremely hot and capacity tight.

Most of the stocks in this area reflect that but I think there is still value in some of the non-assets who should benefit from the hit spot market rates, specifically CH Robinson $56.35 (CHRW), and Landstar $55.51 (LSTR) until Q4 earnings are announced.

Among the asset providers, I like Swift (SWFC) below $22 ($22.92 now) and JB Hunt (JBHT) below $70 ($75.98) if they happen to fall.

A company I really like is Heartland Express (HTLD) currently trading at $18.03 still riding high from the purchase of a very well run private company, Gordon Trucking in October. I'll like pick them up below $18 with an eye on a longer term hold unless Q4 earnings knock it out of the park.
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Update

HTLD: 19.47 (+1.44)

CHRW : $57.40 (+$1.05)

LSTR: $57.311 (+$1.86)

Swift heading below $22 where I think it's a buy.
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Update:

HTLD: 21.09 (+3.26/+18%)

CHRW: $59.60 ( +3.25/+5.7%)

LSTR $58.49 (+2.98/+5.4%)

SWFT: $21.69 - Now a strong buy for a long position through most of 2014.

JBHT: $78.92 - would still lay off
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Nice on SWFT.. :thumbup:
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Thanks. I think there's additional value there this year as they have been pretty aggressive at m&a and I expect that to continue.

JBHT came close to getting below 70 but I don't think it's going to get there. I still think there's some Value there below $72 where it currently sits. Similar for CHRW 54
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Updated thoughts on SWFT? I assume the drop today was the revenue miss? They're back around what WAS your buy point. You still like them for the rest of 2014? Different thoughts on an entry point?

 
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What brokerage does everyone use?

I am in the process of transferring my funds from Vanguard to Merrill Edge. Vanguard is great for wealthy clients as they offer unlimited free trades for balances over 1 million and there are no hidden fees. For instance, I am able to transfer my holdings out without incurring a fee whereas Merrill charges $50 for the same service. The main reason why I am leaving is because Vanguard refused to grant me a margin account. Merrill will extend margin to any account over $2,000 at a rate of 8.65%. Not a great rate but I don't plan on using margin much, only short selling with cash to back it up. The unexpected benefit of switching to Merrill is that they offer 30 free trades a month to clients with over $50,000 between the brokerage and Bank of America checking. This is much better than the $7 I was paying Vanguard. Merrill does charge about $0.02 for every $1,000 traded but that won't add up to much for my trades. A wealthy person on the other hand would incur a $20 fee on every million dollar trade. So it is clear that Vanguard is best for the rich while Merrill is superior for average folks.

What brokerage are you guys using? Pros and Cons? I have heard some good things about Interactive Brokers. Anyone with knowledge?

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Siff, saw your notes on the site... ADRE follower here :thumbup: 5.5% this month, ####### awesome GB!!!

I assume barring some unforeseen disaster, it'll be difficult for anything to overtake that as most bullish in August? Are you going to be updating monthly rotation while you're away?

Anyways, enjoy the R&R :thumbup:
Click to expand...
I ran the model today and it's no surprise that $ADRE remains the top sector...and if I had to take a guess it would remain for August. I will update for August near the end of the month- but my timing, if there were a rotation out of $ADRE and into another sector, at the close of mkt on the 31st will be tight...Definitely be able to have the update by the 1st - so we might be a little late if there were a rotation.

No matter what - let's make sure this $ADRE doesn't turn into a loser - and have a mental stop - $40.50ish with a little wiggle room. (I realize this is outside of the normal "rules" of the strategy - but I won't be here to hold hands and I have some concern in the way the major market indicators are looking-)

 
siffoin said:
and I have some concern in the way the major market indicators are looking-)
Click to expand...
This hints at something I've been thinking about for a bit now. I get the idea behind ditching "buy and hold" philosophies and going with more of a momentum investing style, but how do you balance that against companies you think have a bright future, you want to own long-term, etc?

As examples, I feel like I'm in AAPL, GOOGL, and GE at pretty solid spots. If the broader market starts to turn, how do you play companies like that that you believe you want to own longer term? What about when those individual stocks start to turn? Do you play them all the same regardless and apply your "don't let a winner turn into a loser" strategy, even if it's something you believe you WANT to be in 6 months from now? 3 years from now? 10 years from now?

Does that answer differ when looking at an established (but still envisioned to be long-term) GOOGL/AAPL vs. an up and comer like DDD or even at the level of something like PLG?

 
siffoin said:
fantasycurse42 said:
Siff, saw your notes on the site... ADRE follower here :thumbup: 5.5% this month, ####### awesome GB!!!

I assume barring some unforeseen disaster, it'll be difficult for anything to overtake that as most bullish in August? Are you going to be updating monthly rotation while you're away?

Anyways, enjoy the R&R :thumbup:
Click to expand...
I ran the model today and it's no surprise that $ADRE remains the top sector...and if I had to take a guess it would remain for August. I will update for August near the end of the month- but my timing, if there were a rotation out of $ADRE and into another sector, at the close of mkt on the 31st will be tight...Definitely be able to have the update by the 1st - so we might be a little late if there were a rotation.

No matter what - let's make sure this $ADRE doesn't turn into a loser - and have a mental stop - $40.50ish with a little wiggle room. (I realize this is outside of the normal "rules" of the strategy - but I won't be here to hold hands and I have some concern in the way the major market indicators are looking-)
Click to expand...
Thanks Siff!

 
siffoin said:
fantasycurse42 said:
Siff, saw your notes on the site... ADRE follower here :thumbup: 5.5% this month, ####### awesome GB!!!

I assume barring some unforeseen disaster, it'll be difficult for anything to overtake that as most bullish in August? Are you going to be updating monthly rotation while you're away?

Anyways, enjoy the R&R :thumbup:
Click to expand...
I ran the model today and it's no surprise that $ADRE remains the top sector...and if I had to take a guess it would remain for August. I will update for August near the end of the month- but my timing, if there were a rotation out of $ADRE and into another sector, at the close of mkt on the 31st will be tight...Definitely be able to have the update by the 1st - so we might be a little late if there were a rotation.

No matter what - let's make sure this $ADRE doesn't turn into a loser - and have a mental stop - $40.50ish with a little wiggle room. (I realize this is outside of the normal "rules" of the strategy - but I won't be here to hold hands and I have some concern in the way the major market indicators are looking-)
Click to expand...
Appreciate the insight siff. No one expects to have their hands held, so don't worry :) We all know the risks. Enjoy the break! I'm sure it's well-deserved!

 
Bob Sacamano said:
siffoin said:
and I have some concern in the way the major market indicators are looking-)
Click to expand...
This hints at something I've been thinking about for a bit now. I get the idea behind ditching "buy and hold" philosophies and going with more of a momentum investing style, but how do you balance that against companies you think have a bright future, you want to own long-term, etc?

As examples, I feel like I'm in AAPL, GOOGL, and GE at pretty solid spots. If the broader market starts to turn, how do you play companies like that that you believe you want to own longer term? What about when those individual stocks start to turn? Do you play them all the same regardless and apply your "don't let a winner turn into a loser" strategy, even if it's something you believe you WANT to be in 6 months from now? 3 years from now? 10 years from now?

Does that answer differ when looking at an established (but still envisioned to be long-term) GOOGL/AAPL vs. an up and comer like DDD or even at the level of something like PLG?
Click to expand...
So this is a good question, and something I certainly struggle with too.

I can't speak to buy and hold because I strongly believe that each investor should have a plan for risk management.

In the old days the options market provided a great way to purchase "insurance" during a bear market These days the cost of that "insurance" is too great to make that form of hedge worthwhile.

While inverse/ultra ETFs are typically better as ST hedges even in a prolonged bear market they would offer a decent hedge. You could look at owning some % of your portfolio in a bear SPY (for GE type of stock) or bear technology/nasdaq ETF for the Google/Apples. With some knowledge of your allocation, you could hedge decently as there is a wide variety of products now available. Emini futures would provide the single best form of a hedge.

You don't have to necessarily have the goal of making money in a bear market either - just a much easier goal of not losing money in such a trend. As an example - if the major mkt indices were to lose 20% but you were only to lose 7% in a bear mkt -that will act as a huge multiplier to your portfolio over a series of bull/bear markets throughout your investing lifetime.

 
Arid Filch said:
What brokerage does everyone use?

I am in the process of transferring my funds from Vanguard to Merrill Edge. Vanguard is great for wealthy clients as they offer unlimited free trades for balances over 1 million and there are no hidden fees. For instance, I am able to transfer my holdings out without incurring a fee whereas Merrill charges $50 for the same service. The main reason why I am leaving is because Vanguard refused to grant me a margin account. Merrill will extend margin to any account over $2,000 at a rate of 8.65%. Not a great rate but I don't plan on using margin much, only short selling with cash to back it up. The unexpected benefit of switching to Merrill is that they offer 30 free trades a month to clients with over $50,000 between the brokerage and Bank of America checking. This is much better than the $7 I was paying Vanguard. Merrill does charge about $0.02 for every $1,000 traded but that won't add up to much for my trades. A wealthy person on the other hand would incur a $20 fee on every million dollar trade. So it is clear that Vanguard is best for the rich while Merrill is superior for average folks.

What brokerage are you guys using? Pros and Cons? I have heard some good things about Interactive Brokers. Anyone with knowledge?
Click to expand...
I use Merrill edge as well. No complaints here.....

 
I am a bit bored looking over my investments today. What do you all think about overal stock portfolio. I would consider myself somewhat risk adverse which i think shows up in my elections:

[SIZE=small]Company/Fund[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Description[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]% Total[/SIZE]

[SIZE=small]VANG EXT MKT IDX IP[/SIZE]
[SIZE=small]Midcap index fund[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]17%[/SIZE]

[SIZE=small]LIFEPATH 2050 Q[/SIZE][SIZE=small]primarily large cap longterm mutual fund[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]15%[/SIZE]
[SIZE=small]AMZN[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Common Stock[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]4%[/SIZE]
[SIZE=small]BAC[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Common Stock[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]17%[/SIZE]
[SIZE=small]Unvested BAC[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Stock options (work)[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]9%[/SIZE]
[SIZE=small]EEP[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]common stock (LP) - 6.3% div yield[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]3%[/SIZE]
[SIZE=small]CASH[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]IRA - Money market account[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]17%[/SIZE]
[SIZE=small]F[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Common Stock[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]7%[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]NTI[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]common stock (LP) - 8.0% div yield[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]2%[/SIZE]
[SIZE=small]SLY[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Small Cap EFT[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]6%[/SIZE]
[SIZE=small]AAPL[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Common Stock[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]3%[/SIZE]

 
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AMZN getting knocked around a bit the other day to the tune of like 10% down.. Something like 20% down in 2014 for the year. Good time to buy maybe?

 
saintfool said:
AMZN getting knocked around a bit the other day to the tune of like 10% down.. Something like 20% down in 2014 for the year. Good time to buy maybe?
Click to expand...
they missed earnings again.....I am almost ready to walk away from it..
 
sbonomo said:
I am a bit bored looking over my investments today. What do you all think about overal stock portfolio. I would consider myself somewhat risk adverse which i think shows up in my elections:

[SIZE=small]Company/Fund[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Description[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]% Total[/SIZE]

[SIZE=small]VANG EXT MKT IDX IP[/SIZE]
[SIZE=small]Midcap index fund[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]17%[/SIZE]

[SIZE=small]LIFEPATH 2050 Q[/SIZE][SIZE=small]primarily large cap longterm mutual fund[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]15%[/SIZE]
[SIZE=small]AMZN[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Common Stock[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]4%[/SIZE]
[SIZE=small]BAC[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Common Stock[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]17%[/SIZE]
[SIZE=small]Unvested BAC[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Stock options (work)[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]9%[/SIZE]
[SIZE=small]EEP[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]common stock (LP) - 6.3% div yield[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]3%[/SIZE]
[SIZE=small]CASH[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]IRA - Money market account[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]17%[/SIZE]
[SIZE=small]F[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Common Stock[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]7%[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]NTI[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]common stock (LP) - 8.0% div yield[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]2%[/SIZE]
[SIZE=small]SLY[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Small Cap EFT[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]6%[/SIZE]
[SIZE=small]AAPL[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Common Stock[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]3%[/SIZE]
Click to expand...
Assuming you have quite a bit of time until retirement, I would...

Lower the BOA percentage. 17% in one stock is a little high, imo.

Lower your percentage in cash. Get more money in the market.

 
sbonomo said:
saintfool said:
AMZN getting knocked around a bit the other day to the tune of like 10% down.. Something like 20% down in 2014 for the year. Good time to buy maybe?
Click to expand...
they missed earnings again.....I am almost ready to walk away from it..
Click to expand...
I was starting to wonder about this one too. Can they maintain their level of dominance in the field? Does their exploration into cell phones indicate they're spreading themselves too thin?

 
sbonomo said:
saintfool said:
AMZN getting knocked around a bit the other day to the tune of like 10% down.. Something like 20% down in 2014 for the year. Good time to buy maybe?
Click to expand...
they missed earnings again.....I am almost ready to walk away from it..
Click to expand...
I think it's up to 7 out of the last 9 quarters were a miss, and still trading at around a 500 P/E even after this drop.

 
eoMMan said:
sbonomo said:
I am a bit bored looking over my investments today. What do you all think about overal stock portfolio. I would consider myself somewhat risk adverse which i think shows up in my elections:

[SIZE=small]Company/Fund[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Description[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]% Total[/SIZE]

[SIZE=small]VANG EXT MKT IDX IP[/SIZE]
[SIZE=small]Midcap index fund[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]17%[/SIZE]

[SIZE=small]LIFEPATH 2050 Q[/SIZE][SIZE=small]primarily large cap longterm mutual fund[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]15%[/SIZE]
[SIZE=small]AMZN[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Common Stock[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]4%[/SIZE]
[SIZE=small]BAC[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Common Stock[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]17%[/SIZE]
[SIZE=small]Unvested BAC[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Stock options (work)[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]9%[/SIZE]
[SIZE=small]EEP[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]common stock (LP) - 6.3% div yield[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]3%[/SIZE]
[SIZE=small]CASH[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]IRA - Money market account[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]17%[/SIZE]
[SIZE=small]F[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Common Stock[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]7%[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]NTI[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]common stock (LP) - 8.0% div yield[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]2%[/SIZE]
[SIZE=small]SLY[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Small Cap EFT[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]6%[/SIZE]
[SIZE=small]AAPL[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Common Stock[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]3%[/SIZE]
Click to expand...
Assuming you have quite a bit of time until retirement, I would...

Lower the BOA percentage. 17% in one stock is a little high, imo.

Lower your percentage in cash. Get more money in the market.
Click to expand...
38 - I have all the time in the world.

 
Bob Sacamano said:
saintfool said:
AMZN getting knocked around a bit the other day to the tune of like 10% down.. Something like 20% down in 2014 for the year. Good time to buy maybe?
Click to expand...
Yay for SLB, finally?
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No, this really pisses me off. :hot: Considering shorting still at these levels.

 
General Malaise said:
St. Louis Bob said:
Bob Sacamano said:
Invisibility trying to make another push. There has to be something going on at this point, right?
Click to expand...
Speculation

I'm holding 750 shares @ $1.78. I hope something is going on.
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Held this freaking pig for several years and finally sold because I was tired of looking at it. I sold it last week. On Tuesday. It's been straight up since. Unreal.

Buying more EXO today.
Click to expand...
That really sucks. Most of time, selling was probably the right call.

 
St. Louis Bob said:
Bob Sacamano said:
Invisibility trying to make another push. There has to be something going on at this point, right?
Click to expand...
SpeculationI'm holding 750 shares @ $1.78. I hope something is going on.
Click to expand...
It makes sense, given what their needs are. But for a company with 40+ billion shares outstanding, I'd think there would be a lot more than 300k changing hands in advance of a serious takeover bid. I was thinking more of something like a financing arrangement. If that arrangement happened to be with Tesla, all the better.

 
General Malaise said:
Bob Sacamano said:
General Malaise said:
St. Louis Bob said:
General Malaise said:
Amaya Gaming treating me very well today. Love her so hard.
Click to expand...
What did you buy in at?
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3ish
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Same.

And 6.50ish.

And 7ish.

:bag:
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:lmao:

It's over 40% of our hedge fund right now. I'm all for concentrated bets, buy my god...marketing this thing is next to impossible.
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"So, tell me why I wouldn't just go buy a bunch of that stock on my own rather than pay you to do the same thing."

 
Bob Sacamano said:
"So, tell me why I wouldn't just go buy a bunch of that stock on my own rather than pay you to do the same thing."
Click to expand...
Pretty much....Although we are up nearly 60% net for the year and to date, I don't have many partners complaining. Going to be a good good christmas for the malaise family.

 
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