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Stock Thread (15 Viewers)

Investment update from my pops guy

they like: 

CTXS

SRVR

CLX

WMT

AMZN

Gold

"Healthcare"
I like the list.

But investing in healthcare now scares me. We are learning that privatized healthcare is not designed to handle pandemics and will in fact become unsustainable when they happen.  And with 30MM unemployed, some kind of national healthcare is going to be mandated. An argument could be made on 5MM. I just don't see how we don't take steps toward more socialized medicine sooner rather than later and I'm unsure where commercial healthcare will fit on the path forward. Obamacares' brontosauras bone to the Insurance industry was quite an anchor.

That said, I really like HCA (as a healthcare investment and we've made a lot of money  of my wife Employee Stock Purchase plan.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
matuski said:
If CYDY has results, please publish them.  Paying for spots does not lend credibility to claims.. results would indeed do so.
All results are anecdotal and were talked about on yesterday's call.  They are anecdotal because the only available results for COVID-19 patients treated with leronlimab have been under the emergency use authorization by the FDA which doesn't have a control group.  Here's what they released yesterday:

Our first 39 patients in EIND.... 
--- Very Critical ,... 11 patients in Montefiore Medical Center , NY,  
the most of the severe patients , some with heart transplant some with kidney transplant ,,some on kidney dialysis at the time of injection.. 
All tests much improved but because of severity of organs damage , 4 survived... 
---Critical ,... 11 patients , 10 extubated , 1 is improving. 
---Severe ,... 17 patients , 13 of 15 either discharged or improving , 2 no results . 
Average hospitalization for our patients , 5 days .. 
Since those patients are in EIND , no mild-moderate patients.. 
I spoke with few physicians today about those results , and some did say.. 
" to good to be true " 
The above was copied from another message board and all data (except the last comment) was presented on yesterday's paid interview.

Personally, I think they look incredible:  average of 5 days of hospitalization vs.  remdesivir's 11 days.  Also, there were no mild-moderate cases whereas remdesivir's study only included patients who weren't intubated (mild-moderate or severe cases).

He said also said they may have interim data in a week from the phase 2 study of 75 mild-moderate patients.

The paper will show in a statistically significant way that all patients benefited from treatment.  I think it should be available (but not peer reviewed yet) next week.

 
Just on Thursday alone, this joker is out telling shareholders that Bruce will be published in prestigious medical journal on Friday and then same day goes and puts out intent to sell half his shares

He's losing credibility and that's a problem for any shareholders. Going to be hard to believe anything he says going forward.  So many shady biotechs out there, its not going to take much for people to bail.
Agree. If he has concern for shareholders, would address this ASAP.

 
So a guy sells half the company he runs for probably way more money than he has.

Half, not all, half.  

Sounds like a smart move regardless of what happens with the company
You can rationalize it however you want but it's a terrible look. If the person closest to this doesn't have much confidence that the stock is worth dramatically more, at least in the near-term, then why should people here be risking their retirements on it? I get $12 million is a lot of money and he's been there a while but again, an emailed form 144 that is found in a zipped file on the SEC website screams trying to hide it. 

The one guy on twitter also highlighted that he is selling 1% of the total outstanding shares. The rule for Form 144 is :

If a company's stock is listed on a stock exchange, only the greater of 1% of total outstanding shares, or the average of the previous four-week trading volume can be sold.
Don't know what the previous four week trading volume is but seems fishy. 

To answer your question about money and probability, that is the point. Obviously nobody knows 100% what is going to happen. But as the CEO of the company, he is arguably the person with the greatest knowledge of how this all plays out. I think a lot of people here have a lot of money invested in it at very high levels of confidence that don't seem to be replicated by the CEO. 

 
What companies are the leaders in developing the technology for self driving AI? I am not interested in the car companies themselves but the suppliers to the car companies that will win regardless of buying whatever car the consumer buys. Thoughts?

 
What companies are the leaders in developing the technology for self driving AI? I am not interested in the car companies themselves but the suppliers to the car companies that will win regardless of buying whatever car the consumer buys. Thoughts?
APTV, NVDA, WAYMO (GooG?)

 
I would happily take 30 million now even if I felt very strongly it would be 300 million at some point.  Setting yourself up for a few lifetimes guaranteed or risk that to set yourself up for 50 lifetimes...........I dont see the point.

If someone hands you 30 million free dollars right now but tells you that you can gamble that 30 million with an 80% chance at 300 million, what's your decision?
Then why not make the same move at 25 million or 10 million with that logic? 

Not a good look at all. 

 
You can rationalize it however you want but it's a terrible look. If the person closest to this doesn't have much confidence that the stock is worth dramatically more, at least in the near-term, then why should people here be risking their retirements on it? I get $12 million is a lot of money and he's been there a while but again, an emailed form 144 that is found in a zipped file on the SEC website screams trying to hide it. 

The one guy on twitter also highlighted that he is selling 1% of the total outstanding shares. The rule for Form 144 is :

Don't know what the previous four week trading volume is but seems fishy. 

To answer your question about money and probability, that is the point. Obviously nobody knows 100% what is going to happen. But as the CEO of the company, he is arguably the person with the greatest knowledge of how this all plays out. I think a lot of people here have a lot of money invested in it at very high levels of confidence that don't seem to be replicated by the CEO. 
I agree not the news you want to see or hear about particularly now.

The paper work shows he had about 8 million shares and sold half.  I would imagine his compensation plan would be structured so that he has various option grants either unvested or vested so maybe his true shares are higher if you include potential options?

Just thinking of a potential scenario where the shares sold /to be sold could represent a smaller % than 50%.

 
I would happily take 30 million now even if I felt very strongly it would be 300 million at some point.  Setting yourself up for a few lifetimes guaranteed or risk that to set yourself up for 50 lifetimes...........I dont see the point.

If someone hands you 30 million free dollars right now but tells you that you can gamble that 30 million with an 80% chance at 300 million, what's your decision?
Lol market ain’t gonna interpret it this way no matter how you try to spin it. That’s all that matters. 

 
Just on Thursday alone, this joker is out telling shareholders that Bruce will be published in prestigious medical journal on Friday and then same day goes and puts out intent to sell half his shares

He's losing credibility and that's a problem for any shareholders. Going to be hard to believe anything he says going forward.  So many shady biotechs out there, its not going to take much for people to bail.
Quibble here: he cahsed in and sold his options on Thursday, 4/30 according to the 144

 
Don't know much about form 144 but it looks like he acquired 4.5m shares yesterday as an option exercise and filed to sell them (same day?) along with 317k he received in 2013 as an award grant.  So it doesn't look like he's selling stocks he owned prior to yesterday (except for the 317k).  

Is it possible this is to acquire some cash as part of the plan to up-list to NASDAQ?   

 
Don't know much about form 144 but it looks like he acquired 4.5m shares yesterday as an option exercise and filed to sell them (same day?) along with 317k he received in 2013 as an award grant.  So it doesn't look like he's selling stocks he owned prior to yesterday (except for the 317k).  

Is it possible this is to acquire some cash as part of the plan to up-list to NASDAQ?   
I didn't listen to the call yesterday but I see a lot of comments that NP explicitly said he hoped everyone exericsed their warrants for just this reason.

 
Mancini - Have a great weekend! Bearish shooting star weekly candle for $SPX and the 1st time we've closed at the weekly lows since March 16th. My plan/levels next week: 2790 is next support, bulls likely have a relief long there, but failure to recapture 2880 on it and 2730 is next down.

shooting star weekly candle  :scared:

 
Frankly I care less about the share sale (which it would be good for him to address and move on ) and more about the fact that a paper that was promised on Friday is not published.

If shorts take it down next week so be it, I already have my fill of cydy shares but I'll gladly add more at $2.0 if nothing changes other than the share sale filing.  Not too much more but the R/R is worth it for me.

 
How Peninsula biotech CEO navigated early HIV research before his work on Covid-19 - San Francisco Business Times
https://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/c/how-local-ceo-navigated-the-choppy-waters-of-early.html
May 1, 2020, 1:44pm PDT

Dr. Bruce Patterson has seen this story before: A virus snakes its way into the population, killing thousands and throwing scientists headlong into the pursuit for any sort of treatment, let alone a vaccine or cure. Back during the emergence of the AIDS virus, Chicago-born-and-raised Patterson was a viral researcher in the early days of molecular biology doing the fundamental studies to figure out how the disease worked. “This isn’t my first pandemic,” he says. During this crisis, however, he is the founder and CEO of IncellDx Inc., a San Carlos-based diagnostics company that could play a major role in getting Covid-19 patients on a particular drug quickly. The company is ramping up its activities in the face of the coronavirus pandemic through its work with Vancouver-based CytoDyn Inc. and that company’s Covid drug candidate leronlimab.

How do you describe what IncellDx does? IncellDx has 87 patents for technology that allows molecular diagnostics in a cell without destroying the cell. New sequencing technologies put cells and tissue in a blender and answer the question, “What’s there?” We know how much is there, what’s it in and how it will respond to drugs. That links to pharma because it provides context into pathways. Basically, we do personalized cellular medicine.

What kind of timeframe are we talking about for these tests? We do what everyone does in solution but in the cell, and we get an answer in two to four hours, rather than three weeks. That makes a difference. I had a clinician tell me, “Some people with stage IV lung cancer don’t have two or three weeks to answer which therapy works for them.”

How was the company funded? We built the company on sales, not on big money raises and venture capital. The best way was to bootstrap, quickly prototype a product, get it in the hands of thought leaders, show its significance and promise and then do strategic deals with reference labs and pharma companies. Some would argue it’s a slower path, but we got to profitability relatively quickly.

What does your growth look like in terms of hiring? We’re looking to put people to work in areas like data entry, shipping, handling, all in support of clinical trials. When we get approval, we will need to scale massively. We will be selling these as a kit worldwide, once CytoDyn tells us where to go.

How was it moving from academia to business? It’s one of the hardest transitions ever, but now I can tell an academic from a business person from a mile away. You have to resist the temptation to want to look at the deepest levels of mechanism when you discover something. In business, it’s how quickly you can get a provisional patent. Instead of “why is this happening?” it’s “this happens, it’s reproducible and we can make a kit out of it.”

What’s been your most important lesson? In 1990, I was using colloidal gold in culture with HIV. It was a therapy for arthritis and it stopped the virus cold. I remember going home to my wife and saying, “I think I just locked up the Nobel Prize.” Now, I see studies where they put lice medicine in culture with Covid and it stopped the virus cold and I have flashbacks. We’ll see. I never want to dash innovation or hope, but after a while you have the experience after having worked in pandemics. The message is “the body isn’t a flask of cells.”

What advice would you give the president on the crisis? I would say there’s a way to phase reopening based on the serologic tests. They have to use rapid serology tests that, hopefully, patients can do at home and are confirmed by more-sophisticated tests.

Who is your mentor? My aunt (Mary Christensen). She was one of the first virologists in the 1960s and later head of virology at Children’s Memorial Hospital in Chicago when I was in virology at Northwestern University. We overlapped a few years before she retired. She could grow any virus any day in any culture and do analysis of it. She was really a trend-breaker and a leader in the field.

What would you do if you had to change careers? I would race sailboats. It’s a chess match on water. The reason Larry Ellison and other smart people go into sailing is that it satisfies a profound intellectual urge while rolling in a physical aspect. It’s a great release: You can’t think of anything else while your body is hanging over the edge of a sailboat going 25 miles per hour and trying to figure out where to go next.

Where is IncellDx in five years? We won’t be around. We’ll be under some other umbrella we do and be bought out and join with some larger group with a broader reach. We have a full portfolio of oncology assays on top of Covid, HPV, HIV and others. Our approach of looking at cells one at a time is being validated.

Dr. Bruce Patterson

CEO, IncellDx Inc.

Education: B.S. from the University of Michigan; M.D. from Northwestern University

The Resume: Chief resident of pathology at Northwestern Memorial Hospital; associate professor and director of diagnostic virology at Stanford University

Reading list: I read books to escape. I love Stephen King, stories that have great character definition. It’s about getting away from it a little bit.

Favorite restaurant: Evvia Estiatorio in Palo Alto and Coqueta in San Francisco

INCELLDX INC.

HQ: San Carlos

Employees: 20

Founded: 2009

What it does: Diagnostics company that quickly identifies within a cell whether a gene, for example, is there.

Recent work: The company has focused on Covid-19 amid the pandemic, developing a companion diagnostic for CytoDyn Inc.'s leronlimab, an experimental HIV and cancer drug repurposed to treat patients with respiratory complications.

The (New) Routine

Patterson explained how his schedule has changed amid the pandemic:

Less family time, but more exercising with them

Less sailing and less working out

Less eating as he limits grocery store visits

More writing of research articles

 
Wouldn't they have to sell stock to get the capital required to get listed on NASDAQ if they didn't want outside investors?
I only caught the last few minutes of Friday's call but have heard something that NP said something of the sort that warrants needed to be exercised or funds raised to get NASDAQ listing. Anybody hear something like this? 

 
I don't believe capital is being raised by having a stock option exercised.  
They're actually referring to warrants issued by the company and yes, CYDY would get the exercise price of the warrant.  For example, if an investor exercised 100 warrants at $0.35, CYDY would get $35 and the investor would now own 100 shares with a cost basis of $0.35.

 
Stole this from elsewhere as an explanation

Form 144. This is documenting the transaction between CYDY and NP, the CEO. It's that simple. It's a "cashless" exercise of stock options.

Form S3. Look at NP's row in the table on p.12. It lists how many shares (as well as his equitable interest in shares via options or warrants). It's the same number of shares before the "sale" as it is after the "sale." Why? BECAUSE THIS ISN'T A FILING TO SELL SHARES. IT'S A FILING TO REGISTER INVESTORS' SHARES. If they wanted, they could now sell shares going forward.

Form 4. THIS is the document you have to look out for. If NP files this, then he's either being awarded more stock or is SELLING stock.
 

 
I've been making a number of posts trying to sort this out re: CYDY for myself and the others on this board. Think I'm over my head but trying.

Came across these thoughts that were posted on another board and they made sense to me so thought I'd repeat them here.

1. The share price isn't going up every day. Every time share prices drop message boards want the CEO removed. I don't think CEO's spend their entire day worrying about share prices.
2) There's way too much worry on this board. Over the next couple weeks a lot of positives are coming.
2. The approval of Remdesivir is good for Leronlimab. It sets the approval bar for efficacy results pretty low. It also opens up opportunities for combination therapies for Leronlimab. Something management really isn't too excited about but it gets us into the party and that's what matters at this point.
3. From a trial perspective the FDA seems more interested in quantity vs. quality. A fair result in a big patient study is better than a great result in a smaller patient study. The message the bigger the better. So add more patients and set the study end points accordingly.
4. Study "degree of difficulty is hard to evaluate and quantify. It's like judging Olympic gymnastics or ice skating.
5.. The real payoff here is going to be HIV and cancer applications. COVID is just an extra bonus. It provides a lot of exposure.
6. Waiting for the NEJM peer review story to appear.
7. One final thought. A lot of medications that old people take are immune-suppressive. Like RA drugs. Being on a medication that suppresses your immune system sounds like a death sentence with COVID. I am curious to know how may deaths are correlated to the taking of these medications. So is it the underlying condition that contributes to a higher death rate or the treatment for the underlying condition that contributes to a higher death rate? Or both?
8. Enjoy the weekend as best as possible.

 
Stole this from elsewhere as an explanation

Form 144. This is documenting the transaction between CYDY and NP, the CEO. It's that simple. It's a "cashless" exercise of stock options.

Form S3. Look at NP's row in the table on p.12. It lists how many shares (as well as his equitable interest in shares via options or warrants). It's the same number of shares before the "sale" as it is after the "sale." Why? BECAUSE THIS ISN'T A FILING TO SELL SHARES. IT'S A FILING TO REGISTER INVESTORS' SHARES. If they wanted, they could now sell shares going forward.

Form 4. THIS is the document you have to look out for. If NP files this, then he's either being awarded more stock or is SELLING stock.
 
I saw this elsewhere as well and it makes more sense than the CEO just selling 4.8m shares of stock on the same day he received them.  They are just filing per regulations.  If the CEO had actually sold those shares yesterday then he'd have filed the Form 4.

Form 144 shows intent only and does not obligate the seller to complete the sale. ... It must be filed on or before the actual sale date, but does not show the actual transaction. When the security is actually sold, a Form 4 must be filed with the SEC. In practice, Form 144 and Form 4 are often filed at the same time.
Cashless exercise of stock options from CytoDyn (the issuer on form 144) and the CEO on 30 Apr 2020.  

 
Saw this on another board.  Not sure of validity but it offers an explanation:

I had my broker contact NP directly about it.

Summing it up...CYDY had a deadline to meet with Samsung. CYDY and Samsung have an extremely good relationship. NP exercised his warrants/options (cashless to him) to bring CYDY current. NON DILUTIVE TO SHAREHOLDERS.
This will allow CYDY and Samsung to move forward with production that is at it's highest demand ever.
It goes in line with what he discussed on the conf call (warrants).  

 
They're actually referring to warrants issued by the company and yes, CYDY would get the exercise price of the warrant.  For example, if an investor exercised 100 warrants at $0.35, CYDY would get $35 and the investor would now own 100 shares with a cost basis of $0.35.
I'll take 100,000 of those

 
CNBC:

Berkshire Hathaway Chairman and billionaire value investor Warren Buffett said that the conglomerate has sold the entirety of its equity position in the U.S. airline industry. The prior stake, worth a collective several billion dollars, included United, American, Southwest and Delta Airlines.

“The world has changed for the airlines. And I don’t know how it’s changed and I hope it corrects itself in a reasonably prompt way,” he said. “I don’t know if Americans have now changed their habits or will change their habits because of the extended period.”

But “I think there are certain industries, and unfortunately, I think that the airline industry, among others, that are really hurt by a forced shutdown by events that are far beyond our control,” he added. 

Asked by CNBC’s Becky Quick to clarify if Berkshire had sold all of its airline holdings, Buffett answered “yes.”

He explained: “When we sell something, very often it’s going to be our entire stake. We don’t trim positions.”

His comments Saturday afternoon came after Berkshire Hathaway reported first-quarter earnings that showed Buffett and his lieutenants built up the conglomerate’s cash stockpile and only nibbled at equities during the violent stock market rout in March.

 
All results are anecdotal and were talked about on yesterday's call.  They are anecdotal because the only available results for COVID-19 patients treated with leronlimab have been under the emergency use authorization by the FDA which doesn't have a control group.  Here's what they released yesterday:

The above was copied from another message board and all data (except the last comment) was presented on yesterday's paid interview.

Personally, I think they look incredible:  average of 5 days of hospitalization vs.  remdesivir's 11 days.  Also, there were no mild-moderate cases whereas remdesivir's study only included patients who weren't intubated (mild-moderate or severe cases).

He said also said they may have interim data in a week from the phase 2 study of 75 mild-moderate patients.

The paper will show in a statistically significant way that all patients benefited from treatment.  I think it should be available (but not peer reviewed yet) next week.


Our first 39 patients in EIND.... 
--- Very Critical ,... 11 patients in Montefiore Medical Center , NY,  
the most of the severe patients , some with heart transplant some with kidney transplant ,,some on kidney dialysis at the time of injection.. 
All tests much improved but because of severity of organs damage , 4 survived... 
---Critical ,... 11 patients , 10 extubated , 1 is improving. 
---Severe ,... 17 patients , 13 of 15 either discharged or improving , 2 no results . 
Average hospitalization for our patients , 5 days .. 
Since those patients are in EIND , no mild-moderate patients.. 
I spoke with few physicians today about those results , and some did say.. 
" to good to be true " 
This information looks inaccurate, any idea where can I find the source of this?

 
CNBC:

Berkshire Hathaway Chairman and billionaire value investor Warren Buffett said that the conglomerate has sold the entirety of its equity position in the U.S. airline industry. The prior stake, worth a collective several billion dollars, included United, American, Southwest and Delta Airlines.

“The world has changed for the airlines. And I don’t know how it’s changed and I hope it corrects itself in a reasonably prompt way,” he said. “I don’t know if Americans have now changed their habits or will change their habits because of the extended period.”

But “I think there are certain industries, and unfortunately, I think that the airline industry, among others, that are really hurt by a forced shutdown by events that are far beyond our control,” he added. 

Asked by CNBC’s Becky Quick to clarify if Berkshire had sold all of its airline holdings, Buffett answered “yes.”

He explained: “When we sell something, very often it’s going to be our entire stake. We don’t trim positions.”

His comments Saturday afternoon came after Berkshire Hathaway reported first-quarter earnings that showed Buffett and his lieutenants built up the conglomerate’s cash stockpile and only nibbled at equities during the violent stock market rout in March.
Woof. Wish I was more short the airlines ahead of this. Remember when people said he sold his stake in DAL and people tried to say it was a bullish sign. 
 

He previously said airlines were uninvestable but couldn’t help himself. Imagine he won’t ever touch them again. 

 
Hey, it's possible some of the actual stock you bought was sold by Buffett, they'd be souvenirs!

Anyway, seems like this Buffett guy is fearful of the airlines, so, that means it's time to be greedy and buy, right?
I was in for a year when I bought it so I’ll just hang tight. Might buy some more even. 

 
This information looks inaccurate, any idea where can I find the source of this?
You’re starting to be a whole lot less “objective” than you tried to appear before. Not really buying into your opinion much when you’re posting the tweets you are and reply like this.

 
I'm relaxing, holding onto the Comcast that Todem said to buy. I paid $36.80, and it went right up to $37.31 after hours. Thanks Todem!

 
Soooo share price 2 bucks or 5 bucks over this?  😱
Conventional, unimaginative thinking would suggest some downward pressure on CYDY due to the smoke raised by the fuss generated regarding Form 144 filing and perhaps due to continuing after effects from Gilead's remdesivir publicity. 

However, once Dr. Patterson's paper appears throughout medical world I would suggest that it would fuel a run-up.

 
But honestly, it was being interpreted as a silently bullish move.  This signals he has lost all hope in the industry as a whole.  I do NOT see this going well.
Isn't all of this news priced in?

Nobody is flying airlines YoY and most don't expect a dramatic uptick this year. Once there is a vaccine in place, air travel will pick up again (although it will pick up some as the weather improves and lockdowns end over the summer), but will still be way, way down.

I do own 50 share of UAL (bought 25 at 22 and the other half about 26). I don't expect it to be a stock that does much this year, and could go down further, but do think it could be a good investment if you're patient - in 1-3 years.

I do think that business travel could change as a result. Not sure if sales people will fully adapt to Skype/Zoom, etc. and there will always be a need for in-person meetings, but a good percentage of meetings can be productive over a video conference.

 
Bought my first stand alone stocks yesterday 😊
- 1 share of amazon

-150 shares of mgm

-10 shares of boeing 

Left 1900 in account to move into another stock.  Thanks for the education, I open this thread several times a day.

Up $17.24 #boatloads
This has been a great thread (perhaps a bit too heavy on CYDY, but I get it).

Similar to you, i got into stocks this year. I do own about 550 shares through my company program at discounted rates, and those have held up (down 25% this year), but very well over the past few year.

I currently have the following. I did a lot of buying in February before things took a dump and since have been buying most of these at discounted prices. Obviously, thinking longer-term with United, Boeing and Disney.

How am I doing? Open to suggestions.

39 shares of Boeing (between 125 and 150)

37 shares of Disney (about half between 136 and 145 and the other half under 115)

50 shares of United (all bought between 22 and 26)

25 shares of Target (bought at 15 at 117 and 10 at 113)

25 shares of Uber (25 shares at 38)

1 share of Google (1513)

 

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