ghostguy123
Footballguy
I think the only info we need at this point is the results that are supposed to come out tomorrow or tuesday.
Unless I guess you are long on HIV/cancer.
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Stock Thread (16 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Unless I guess you are long on HIV/cancer.
Capella
Footballguy
It’s all noise till the news. Doesn’t matter one way or the other imo. Just stuff to discuss.
adonis
Footballguy
From what I've read, shorts in OTC seem to average about 48% of total volume each day. Seems reasonable compared to what i've been seeing.
⚡DEADHEAD⚡
Footballguy
from Yahoo:
Access to blinded data - In real life
Sponsor (company) have access to the blinded data except the patient information and treatment arm. From the raw data Sponsor can predict the outcome of the trial. Since they do not have access to the full information, they have to wait for unblinding for complete analysis.
In real life, patients data are uploaded after each cycle of treatment. It might take 1 or 2 days for the clinical trial site to upload the results on the database. As soon as the data are uploaded, medical monitors analyze every parameters very thoroughly. These parameters can guide the sponsors about the outcome of the trials.
When NP said he did not see the data it means that he did not see the final analysis (may be he doesn't know the final p-value). But definitely he has seen the raw data and knows the outcome of the the trial.
Excellent results are waiting on Tuesday.
Access to blinded data - In real life
Sponsor (company) have access to the blinded data except the patient information and treatment arm. From the raw data Sponsor can predict the outcome of the trial. Since they do not have access to the full information, they have to wait for unblinding for complete analysis.
In real life, patients data are uploaded after each cycle of treatment. It might take 1 or 2 days for the clinical trial site to upload the results on the database. As soon as the data are uploaded, medical monitors analyze every parameters very thoroughly. These parameters can guide the sponsors about the outcome of the trials.
When NP said he did not see the data it means that he did not see the final analysis (may be he doesn't know the final p-value). But definitely he has seen the raw data and knows the outcome of the the trial.
Excellent results are waiting on Tuesday.
djmich
Footballguy
I don’t get it, so this is saying he’s had access to the blinded raw data? Unless he knows who’s placebo and who’s not how do you draw any conclusions
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
Oh I agree--but what are the odds that the news that comes out with the results are mixed, inconclusive or digestible as both potentially positive or negative? I'm cautiously optimistic and of course am rooting for the best--but I'm not sure if this stock has ever had any sort of transparatent clarity in one way or another since I've owned it. Lol.
Capella
Footballguy
I figure I’m calling a bet in poker with a good hand and good pot odds. I never get upset if those lose and I made the right decision. If somebody hits the river on me to take me out it was fun anyways and I still have more chips.
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Capella
Footballguy
djmich
Footballguy
Pretty much sums it up, still gonna be pissed when I bust out against the pocket 2-7 Nader has been holding.
And I’ll go 65/35 against...but higher multiple on the win keeps me in the hand.
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Capella
Footballguy
lol at Nader and the 2-7.
Dammit that may happen Yea sometimes the pot is so juicy you just have to see what the other guy is holding.
ps I miss poker
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General Malaise
Footballguy
Charlie Harper
Footballguy
I assume they are drawing daily labs on the patients. So if they see patient A with improved labs that are specific to LL improvement (say BP IncellDX panel) and patient B doesn't show any changes they have an idea.
Otis
Footballguy
No doubt. Otis is maddingly bad with the loot. It’s why I’ll work till I’m dead.
Charlie Harper
Footballguy
Smart for the press release on Tuesday so not to get overshadowed by AZN on Monday with vaccine news.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
has to look up AZN to see what it was and I actually own a few shares 
Chaz McNulty
Footballguy
From Yahoo:
"Bad news over the past week: bla rejected, mexico paperwork misplaced. Good news over the past week: Nader smiled a lot. Yep, it's in the bag guys we're rich."
"Bad news over the past week: bla rejected, mexico paperwork misplaced. Good news over the past week: Nader smiled a lot. Yep, it's in the bag guys we're rich."
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
You can immediately tell if someone is a short or not by whether or not they use the term "rejected" when discussing the BLA.
djmich
Footballguy
Yah.
And I don't say it because I don't want to jinx it and imply the results are going to be good or we've "won"....but the fact that the results are unblinded and "in" is huge...I was fully waiting for some reason why another month would be needed.
Steeler
Footballguy
identikit
Footballguy
Capella
Footballguy
One thing that gives me a little pause I must admit is that on Twitter I follow a lot of scientists, doctors and people trying to solve corona in general. I’ve never once seen anybody mention LL. If this thing is the game changer many of us seem to think it will, wouldn’t somebody of note said “can’t wait to see the results of the LL trials coming up” or anything of the such? I know it’s a small circle but I constantly see other science being mentioned.
Hasn’t stopped me at all but it does seem strange.
Hasn’t stopped me at all but it does seem strange.
djmich
Footballguy
Yep, tell my wife that we’re witnessing the most unheralded birth of a planet changing pharmaceutical...or Nader is holding 2-7 off-suit and we’re ####ed.
Caesar
Footballguy
Amidst a 12 hour Sunday work day, I am bored out of my mind. I decided to register and read up the Investorshub message board.
I picked about 10 stocks trading from $.02 to $.30 and one thing was prevalent in all of them. They ALL have someone or multiple someones who are totally convinced their product or service is going to be a "game changer". From biotechs to security software to legalized mary jane, they all think their company is going to go to $5+ within the next 6 months.
Then I look back at the CYDY and see the same kind of optimism. Fact is, only a very small % of these penny stocks are ever going to make a difference. Most will end up being gone in a few years, or they will just piss along treading water, and never really doing anything. There are stocks trading for a nickle that have been hovering around there, people waiting for 5-10+ years for something to happen. Just "holding the bag" so to speak.
For those that got in on CYDY early, it has already made a huge difference. Get your cost basis to 0 or near 0, or lock in some profits and then enjoy the ride. No reason to stress it. For those of us that got in a bit later and are trying to get on the positive side of things, I think we knew what we signed up for. I would be thrilled if I can get my cost basis down enough to cash out to a 0 cost basis and still have some shares to see it through. If it holds Monday, I will be doing just that.
I picked about 10 stocks trading from $.02 to $.30 and one thing was prevalent in all of them. They ALL have someone or multiple someones who are totally convinced their product or service is going to be a "game changer". From biotechs to security software to legalized mary jane, they all think their company is going to go to $5+ within the next 6 months.
Then I look back at the CYDY and see the same kind of optimism. Fact is, only a very small % of these penny stocks are ever going to make a difference. Most will end up being gone in a few years, or they will just piss along treading water, and never really doing anything. There are stocks trading for a nickle that have been hovering around there, people waiting for 5-10+ years for something to happen. Just "holding the bag" so to speak.
For those that got in on CYDY early, it has already made a huge difference. Get your cost basis to 0 or near 0, or lock in some profits and then enjoy the ride. No reason to stress it. For those of us that got in a bit later and are trying to get on the positive side of things, I think we knew what we signed up for. I would be thrilled if I can get my cost basis down enough to cash out to a 0 cost basis and still have some shares to see it through. If it holds Monday, I will be doing just that.
cosjobs
Footballguy
Capella
Footballguy
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/clinical-trial-readouts-of-covid-19-vaccines-drugs-due-in-july-1029407575
mentioned in this article. Nothing game breaking but still good to see them get covered.
mentioned in this article. Nothing game breaking but still good to see them get covered.
⚡DEADHEAD⚡
Footballguy
⚡DEADHEAD⚡
Footballguy
FYI, Patterson has options to purchase 570,000 shares. He's got interests in this outcome beyond the science; possibly explains his "distancing" from the company as of late.
Chaz McNulty
Footballguy
What's your prediction for tomorrow. I am hoping it does exactly what it has done the last two trading days. Drop down to around $5.10 so I can scoop up some shares and then trade them at the end of the day at around $5.50. The late push tomorrow might even see it go to $6.00.
dkp993
Footballguy
Well as long as we’re hoping... I hope it spikes to 10ish range, I sell about 10% of what I have and pull out a tidy profit from my total investment. Tuesday it takes another spike from the good news report to low 20’s and we all start talking about our million dollar number again.
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Caesar
Footballguy
Capella
Footballguy
I think we hit 6 tomorrow. If the results are great on Tuesday then 10 is in play.
cosjobs
Footballguy
I think a strong morning in the 6 range. I could see it spiraling upward, but would be very suprised (and a buyer) on any dip.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
sporthenry
Footballguy
Good article on the Fed and how they'll inevitably buy stocks. The tail is wagging the dog and I suppose this is the problem with a PE guy at the Fed. Powell associates stocks down = job losses. So instead of focusing on growth and jobs, he's focused on propping up the market and hoping that trickles through to employment.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kevincoldiron/2020/07/18/the-fed-is-going-to-buy-stocks/#338883a9eb49
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kevincoldiron/2020/07/18/the-fed-is-going-to-buy-stocks/#338883a9eb49
CR69
Footballguy
dkp993
Footballguy
Yeah with only 3k shares my number is up there too, with a cost basis of .68 I’m more then happy though. But the million dollar number is still fun to talk about.My million dollar number is: Amazon
Sand
Footballguy
This market is easily the biggest disconnect between prices and fundamentals in 200+ years. I guess this will keep the ball rolling, though...
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
I didn't read the article--but if your cliff notes version is what it boils down to--i think thats a horrid plan. Huge corporations are not concerned with employment--they are concerned with keeping both present and future costs down--which generally is more supportive of automation than it is employment. Once these big companies get fully automated and are able to make things without the associated costs of labor/staffing/workers comp insurance--those jobs are gone forever. If Powell and the government really cared about the employment numbers--they should be dumping money into small businesses. Thats where the employers are.
CR69
Footballguy
He makes a good point about why would companies give up equity when they have access to cheap debt due to the Fed buying bonds. I knew that was bad but didn't think it through to that point. With that one move the Fed turned our market into a ponzi scheme. We really are going full on Japan here, aren't we?
sporthenry
Footballguy
Well his biggest point is that they've created massive moral hazard. If they keep subsidizing debt, they're going to create bigger issues down the road so they're better off buying equity so everyone doesn't issue debt. Then also talks about how folks are invested so retirements rely on the market. Then touches on trying to stave off a recession or depression by keeping the markets up which would help employment. I just think the efficacy of that is horrendous and will lead to massive wealth redistribution. So that is why I highlight it. It's honestly not a long read so I'd recommend it.
Sand
Footballguy
He didn't say "prop up public sector pensions" but might as well. If these start going belly up, requiring massive tax increases and public sector job cuts, it will be a nasty, nasty downward spiral.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Steeler
Footballguy
Someone up-thread speculated CYDY may be waiting until Tuesday so they weren't competing with the AZN announcement on Monday (no idea what that might be or if an announcement is even going to happen). I also saw the stock was up ~25% since 7/14 and Motley Fool recommended the stock on 7/18. Not much to go on, but that's why I originally asked about buying in premarket tomorrow morning.
Charlie Harper
Footballguy
Moonlight
Footballguy
Nothing today.
1. Dr. NP on Dr. Been - 7/18 @ 6pm or 9pm
2. Dr. BP on Dr. Been - 7/20 @ 9pm ET
3. Dr. Yo on Dr. Drew - 7/21 @ 6pm ET
4. Dr. BP on Dr. Yo - Week of 7/27 TBD
BassNBrew
Footballguy
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ghostguy123
Footballguy
If there were some great results, how could that be kept secret? Someone would be spilling some beans.
