Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
Unfortunately (I think), these next two games don't mean much. I could definitely see them going into rest mode for at least the Miami game.
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2021 Buffalo Bills - Same as it ever was*** (8 Viewers)
- Thread starter GroveDiesel
- Start date
Super King
Footballguy
I want the Bills to destroy the Pats in Foxborough, most definitely. National statement of who owns the division
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
Same with my Padres in baseball this year. So frustrating.
Congrats to all of you Bills homers, you guys are great fans and deserve this season. I’ll be pulling for Buffalo in the AFC playoffs.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
The outcome of MIA-NE doesn't really matter to us now, but I'm going to root for NE anyway. I want my team to be the one that ends their playoff chances next week. (I'm still a little salty about Washington beating the Steelers).
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
This season really has been a wild fun ride so far. A stat that shows just where the Bills are this year offensively: Corey Bojorquez likely is going to finish up with less than 2.5 punts per game (unless the Bills go with backups in Week 17 which could change things) which means he won’t show up on any official stats sheets at the end of the year.
And that sorta sucks for Corey because he is absolutely killing it this year. He’d easily have the highest average in the league and he’s pinned the other team back deep a pretty good percent of the time as well.
Pretty nice that when the Buffalo offense does actually struggle on a drive, they have a weapon that generally still allows them to flip the field.
And that sorta sucks for Corey because he is absolutely killing it this year. He’d easily have the highest average in the league and he’s pinned the other team back deep a pretty good percent of the time as well.
Pretty nice that when the Buffalo offense does actually struggle on a drive, they have a weapon that generally still allows them to flip the field.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Current Bills 1st round playoff opponent odds:
Browns 28%
Ravens 26%
Colts 22%
This almost seems unfair. The Bills and Browns are both good at the same time for the first time in forever, and they may have to play in the first round where one of them would be one and done. And as a Bills fan, I’d rather not play the Browns anyway. A really really good running game and a strong pass rush would be a tough matchup.
Browns 28%
Ravens 26%
Colts 22%
This almost seems unfair. The Bills and Browns are both good at the same time for the first time in forever, and they may have to play in the first round where one of them would be one and done. And as a Bills fan, I’d rather not play the Browns anyway. A really really good running game and a strong pass rush would be a tough matchup.
themeistersinger
Footballguy
Yeah, Browns fans have suffered about the same as Bills fans, so deserve a place in the sun. Can't ever root too hard against Frank Reich. I've never liked the Ravens so I hope we play them and beat them.
The Duff Man
Footballguy
I am hoping for Colts or Miami. Then Browns. Bal is starting to put it together, I would be most afraid of them. If it ends up being the Titans because Indy wins the division I see them as being similar to Cle.
The Duff Man
Footballguy
MVP is crazy talk right?
Bills opponents have win % of 54 and that is with the Jets on there twice.
GBs opponents are 43%. KCs are 48%.
He closed the gap on combined numbers with the top two.
Bills opponents have win % of 54 and that is with the Jets on there twice.
GBs opponents are 43%. KCs are 48%.
He closed the gap on combined numbers with the top two.
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
That play was just so frustrating. Not that the Chiefs are losing again anyway, but to essentially have no shot at the 1 seeds sucks. Actually, to have a decent shot at being the #2 seed in a year where they got rid of the bye for the #2 seed sucks too.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Divison WInners!
Wanted to congratulate you all
Rest everyone Week 17, thanks!
Wanted to congratulate you all
Rest everyone Week 17, thanks!
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
If the Bills beat the Pats next Monday night and the Colts beat the Steelers, the Bills have like a 98% chance to be the #2 seed even with a loss to the Dolphins. Would be awesome if the Bills could basically clinch that 2 seed and rest a bunch of guys Week 17.
It feels really unnatural as a Bills fan, but this team has me legit excited and thinking they may be something special. I think they really truly have a shot at a Super Bowl.
My Ultimate Dream Scenario: Bills beat the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game and go on to absolutely pants Tom Brady and the Bucs in the Super Bowl.
It feels really unnatural as a Bills fan, but this team has me legit excited and thinking they may be something special. I think they really truly have a shot at a Super Bowl.
My Ultimate Dream Scenario: Bills beat the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game and go on to absolutely pants Tom Brady and the Bucs in the Super Bowl.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
This scenario would also help set up a WC matchup against Miami, as opposed to (probably) Baltimore. I know they're a divisional opponent and this would be the third game against them this season, but I'd far prefer to play the Dolphins than the Ravens in round 1.GroveDiesel said:
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Yeah, pretty interesting that resting their starters Week 17 and giving Miami a win could actually knock Baltimore out of the playoffs and set up a matchup the very next week between the Bills and Dolphins again.
But then the question becomes whether it’s better to rest guys and get the Dolphins but giving your division opponent a free win into the playoffs where you face them the very next week, or do you go out there and risk injury to your starters but hopefully eliminate a division opponent from the playoffs but setup a probably more difficult matchup against the Ravens?
Of course, what’s also possible is that they do what happened to the Bills more times than I would like to remember and play their backups in a must win for Miami and still eliminate them.
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
Open the stadium.
themeistersinger
Footballguy
This ranking is not surprising
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29939464/2020-nfl-pass-rushing-run-stopping-blocking-leaderboard-win-rate-rankings#rbwrteam
Team Run Block Win Rate
1. Green Bay Packers, 74%
2. Philadelphia Eagles, 73%
3. Baltimore Ravens, 73%
4. Washington Football Team, 73%
5. Arizona Cardinals, 73%
6. Cincinnati Bengals, 72%
7. Houston Texans, 72%
8. Carolina Panthers, 72%
9. New England Patriots, 72%
10. Indianapolis Colts, 71%
11. Chicago Bears, 71%
12. Dallas Cowboys, 71%
13. New Orleans Saints, 71%
14. New York Giants, 71%
15. Minnesota Vikings, 71%
16. Cleveland Browns, 70%
17. Los Angeles Rams, 70%
18. Tennessee Titans, 70%
19. Detroit Lions, 70%
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 70%
21. Denver Broncos, 70%
22. Seattle Seahawks, 70%
23. Miami Dolphins, 69%
24. San Francisco 49ers, 69%
25. Jacksonville Jaguars, 69%
26. Buffalo Bills, 69%
27. Pittsburgh Steelers, 69%
28. Atlanta Falcons, 69%
29. Las Vegas Raiders, 68%
30. New York Jets, 68%
31. Los Angeles Chargers, 67%
32. Kansas City Chiefs, 67%
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29939464/2020-nfl-pass-rushing-run-stopping-blocking-leaderboard-win-rate-rankings#rbwrteam
Team Run Block Win Rate
1. Green Bay Packers, 74%
2. Philadelphia Eagles, 73%
3. Baltimore Ravens, 73%
4. Washington Football Team, 73%
5. Arizona Cardinals, 73%
6. Cincinnati Bengals, 72%
7. Houston Texans, 72%
8. Carolina Panthers, 72%
9. New England Patriots, 72%
10. Indianapolis Colts, 71%
11. Chicago Bears, 71%
12. Dallas Cowboys, 71%
13. New Orleans Saints, 71%
14. New York Giants, 71%
15. Minnesota Vikings, 71%
16. Cleveland Browns, 70%
17. Los Angeles Rams, 70%
18. Tennessee Titans, 70%
19. Detroit Lions, 70%
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 70%
21. Denver Broncos, 70%
22. Seattle Seahawks, 70%
23. Miami Dolphins, 69%
24. San Francisco 49ers, 69%
25. Jacksonville Jaguars, 69%
26. Buffalo Bills, 69%
27. Pittsburgh Steelers, 69%
28. Atlanta Falcons, 69%
29. Las Vegas Raiders, 68%
30. New York Jets, 68%
31. Los Angeles Chargers, 67%
32. Kansas City Chiefs, 67%
themeistersinger
Footballguy
Better results on pass blocking
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29939464/2020-nfl-pass-rushing-run-stopping-blocking-leaderboard-win-rate-rankings#pbwrteam
Team Pass Block Win Rate
1. Green Bay Packers, 74%
2. Cleveland Browns, 71%
3. Arizona Cardinals, 68%
4. Buffalo Bills, 64%
5. Kansas City Chiefs, 63%
6. New Orleans Saints, 63%
7. Seattle Seahawks, 62%
8. Los Angeles Rams, 62%
9. Indianapolis Colts, 61%
10. Baltimore Ravens, 61%
11. New England Patriots, 60%
12. Philadelphia Eagles, 59%
13. Atlanta Falcons, 58%
14. Las Vegas Raiders, 58%
15. Washington Football Team, 58%
16. Minnesota Vikings, 57%
17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 57%
18. Houston Texans, 56%
19. Chicago Bears, 56%
20. Detroit Lions, 54%
21. San Francisco 49ers, 54%
22. Carolina Panthers, 54%
23. Tennessee Titans, 54%
24. Denver Broncos, 54%
25. Dallas Cowboys, 52%
26. Jacksonville Jaguars, 52%
27. Miami Dolphins, 50%
28. Cincinnati Bengals, 50%
29. Pittsburgh Steelers, 49%
30. New York Jets, 49%
31. New York Giants, 46%
32. Los Angeles Chargers, 45%
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29939464/2020-nfl-pass-rushing-run-stopping-blocking-leaderboard-win-rate-rankings#pbwrteam
Team Pass Block Win Rate
1. Green Bay Packers, 74%
2. Cleveland Browns, 71%
3. Arizona Cardinals, 68%
4. Buffalo Bills, 64%
5. Kansas City Chiefs, 63%
6. New Orleans Saints, 63%
7. Seattle Seahawks, 62%
8. Los Angeles Rams, 62%
9. Indianapolis Colts, 61%
10. Baltimore Ravens, 61%
11. New England Patriots, 60%
12. Philadelphia Eagles, 59%
13. Atlanta Falcons, 58%
14. Las Vegas Raiders, 58%
15. Washington Football Team, 58%
16. Minnesota Vikings, 57%
17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 57%
18. Houston Texans, 56%
19. Chicago Bears, 56%
20. Detroit Lions, 54%
21. San Francisco 49ers, 54%
22. Carolina Panthers, 54%
23. Tennessee Titans, 54%
24. Denver Broncos, 54%
25. Dallas Cowboys, 52%
26. Jacksonville Jaguars, 52%
27. Miami Dolphins, 50%
28. Cincinnati Bengals, 50%
29. Pittsburgh Steelers, 49%
30. New York Jets, 49%
31. New York Giants, 46%
32. Los Angeles Chargers, 45%
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
There aren’t too many pass first offenses with good run block win rates it seems.
With the mentality of run blocking being quite a bit different than pass blocking, it would make sense that if you’re passing way more often than running, that guys would have a difficult time making that sudden transition to being way more aggressive and run blocking well. Plus, teams building a pass first offense often load up on smaller faster O-linemen so they don’t get beat by pass rushers, where more run first teams likely have bigger O-linemen that are maulers but may get beat by good pass rushers.
The one ranking that really surprises me is how low Cleveland’s run block win rate is. With as good as their running game is, I thought they’d be higher. Just shows how incredible their RBs really are I guess (and/or how much they miss Wyatt Teller right now).
With the mentality of run blocking being quite a bit different than pass blocking, it would make sense that if you’re passing way more often than running, that guys would have a difficult time making that sudden transition to being way more aggressive and run blocking well. Plus, teams building a pass first offense often load up on smaller faster O-linemen so they don’t get beat by pass rushers, where more run first teams likely have bigger O-linemen that are maulers but may get beat by good pass rushers.
The one ranking that really surprises me is how low Cleveland’s run block win rate is. With as good as their running game is, I thought they’d be higher. Just shows how incredible their RBs really are I guess (and/or how much they miss Wyatt Teller right now).
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Steve Tasker
Footballguy
I haven't vetted this, but per Reddit:
Bills clinch the #2 seed with: BUF win + PIT loss + TEN loss
Bills clinch at least the #3 seed with: BUF win + TEN loss
Chiefs clinch home field + bye with: KC win or PIT loss or BUF loss
Bills clinch the #2 seed with: BUF win + PIT loss + TEN loss
Bills clinch at least the #3 seed with: BUF win + TEN loss
Chiefs clinch home field + bye with: KC win or PIT loss or BUF loss
themeistersinger
Footballguy
The spread on Run Block Win Rate ranges from 67% to 74%. The spread on Pass Block Win Rate ranges from 45% to 74%. Obviously QB mobility can make a huge difference even when a team gives up a pass rush.
I think your point about the size of the blockers makes sense. But you would think smaller, quicker linemen would do well on runs to the outside while doing worse on the runs to the inside. Sort of like first down runs should go well for quick lines, while third-and-one plunges would obviously favor the bigger lines.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Trusted? Probably not. I don’t think there is necessarily a clear plan you can trust for Buffalo’s run game. I do think that with a bigger lead you are much more likely to see Moss salting the game away, and I do think the Bills actually value Moss over Singletary at this point, but I think the Bills very much see a committee for those guys more than one guy being primary.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
My takeaway from this is that all teams are pretty much the same when it comes to run blocking. I'm not sure that any of these differences are meaningful.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
At what point does the NFL just go ahead and rename the AFC Offensive Player of the Week award? It should just be the Josh Allen Award for Outstanding Excellence or something.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Four times now this year. Mahomes, Jackson, and Henry are the only other guys to even win it twice this year.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Brown, Diggs and White all are practicing today. Williams and Robert’s are not. Not having Williams would not be great, but I definitely want to see all of those guys completely healthy by playoff time.
And man, this offense is already humming and they’re about to add Brown back in with Diggs, Beasley and Davis? Hopefully they get at least one full game in with all of those guys healthy together to build back some chemistry before the playoffs. Spread it wide and pass pass pass. And if Knox has finally figured out how to hang onto the ball, that makes them all the more dangerous. Forcing teams into a base dime or quarters defense by spreading it out and then having Knox add an additional receiving threat from the TE position creates a whole lot of stress on a defense.
And man, this offense is already humming and they’re about to add Brown back in with Diggs, Beasley and Davis? Hopefully they get at least one full game in with all of those guys healthy together to build back some chemistry before the playoffs. Spread it wide and pass pass pass. And if Knox has finally figured out how to hang onto the ball, that makes them all the more dangerous. Forcing teams into a base dime or quarters defense by spreading it out and then having Knox add an additional receiving threat from the TE position creates a whole lot of stress on a defense.
The Duff Man
Footballguy
I would rather see them leave the TE in to block. They have enough weapons, they just need to give Allen time. All three of his WRs can get open, and he can extend if he needs to. Just need to make sure they have time to do it.
Plus Knox’s hands and fumblitis.
Plus Knox’s hands and fumblitis.
Steve Tasker
Footballguy
There are some rumblings of possibly allowing fans to the playoff game, with some sort of pregame and postgame rapid Covid tests. I doubt I can get tickets, but I'd be interested. The stadium would absolutely be a sellout, without question, if fans were allowed.
The Duff Man
Footballguy
I would go if I could cross the border. Over/Under on a ticket price? Would set a record for non Super Bowl I bet.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Maybe it’s crazy, but if the Bills get approval to have fans, they should just donate the seats and have local frontline health workers, first responders, etc fill those seats.
I still don’t think it will happen though. Erie county seems to already be throwing a hissy fit because they haven’t been involved in the conversation.
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
Or reward the people that opted in and had their money interest free this year for the chance to go to games. Those with many years of pumping the Bills money during the entire drought.
Im fine with health care workers getting a section or a few hundred seats (GB did 250 health care workers last weekend) however I’d really like the opportunity to go or get ripped off from a scalper.
I think it’s a joke Lord Cuomo wants everyone tested. The 13 other teams that have fans all year haven’t had any incidents or did testing. Kansas City has dominated all year in respect to fans. Even held a ticketed practice. Walmart today had more people.
go bills
Im fine with health care workers getting a section or a few hundred seats (GB did 250 health care workers last weekend) however I’d really like the opportunity to go or get ripped off from a scalper.
I think it’s a joke Lord Cuomo wants everyone tested. The 13 other teams that have fans all year haven’t had any incidents or did testing. Kansas City has dominated all year in respect to fans. Even held a ticketed practice. Walmart today had more people.
go bills
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Steve Tasker
Footballguy
This is why I said "I doubt I could get a ticket". My season ticket holder friends have their money in limbo. I had season tickets for like 10-ish years, but not for the past few, can't commit to the full season anymore.
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
People are mad already that they're even discussing this. People can't appropriately grieve their loved ones passing, or visit their father in a nursing home, but let's go to a football game.Steve Tasker said:
The Duff Man
Footballguy
There are a lot of negatives during this time that most people can’t fathom, you listed a couple. There are many more.
But some people enduring hardship doesn’t mean that others can’t seek out fun and try to enjoy life.
If it is safe to attend games, they should be talking about it and make it happen.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Going to a football game is safe, though.
At this point, people are just getting mad at other people having a bit of joy in their lives.
Edit: What Duff Man said. All I had to do was read literally one more post before responding.
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GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Huh. Watching the 1pm games and as things play out I’m not sure if I want the Colts to win and the Bills clinch the #2 seed with a win tomorrow night, or have the Steelers win so there is an outside shot at the Bills getting the #1 seed (would require the Chiefs to lose to the Falcons which is happening right now and next week against the Chargers along with the Steelers beating the Browns next week as well and 2 Bills wins).
So the #2 seed and being able to rest starters against the Dolphins, or having to play the starters with an outside chance of getting the #1 seed and the bye.
ETA: Welp, nevermind. Atlanta blew yet another lead. Let’s go Colts!
So the #2 seed and being able to rest starters against the Dolphins, or having to play the starters with an outside chance of getting the #1 seed and the bye.
ETA: Welp, nevermind. Atlanta blew yet another lead. Let’s go Colts!
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GroveDiesel
Footballguy
So Atlanta’s pro bowl kicker missed the game tying FG at the end of the game after they blew the lead. The Pats comeback against that team in the Super Bowl broke that franchise.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
They also dropped a fairly routine INT that would have ended the game, on one of those passes that would break Twitter if Allen had thrown it.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Hearing how Belichick snubbed Allen before the game this week and then reportedly was salty about the Bills running the score up on them fills my heart with such glee.
The Duff Man
Footballguy
I think we are going to look back at this as the end for Bill B. I don’t see him successfully turning this around. Without winning his act will wear thin with players.
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GroveDiesel
Footballguy
I’m not entirely sure about that. The Patriots had a ton of guys opt out and then had some key injuries on top of that. They also had zero cap room. They get those opt out guys back next year along with $55M in cap space in a year most teams are going to be over the cap or right at the cap. With that much money, would it surprise anyone if Milano ended up a Patriot?
With a bunch of key guys back and a ton of money to spend, the Pats will likely look much different next year. I expect them to at least be competitive. Obviously the big question is who will be at QB and what kind of limit does that put on their potential success.
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IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
I agree. The guy's almost 70 and he's accomplished everything a person could possibly accomplish in the NFL. His roster is kind of trash with quite a few weak spots, especially at QB where he went from an all-world passer to a completely bare cupboard. Sure they've got FA money to spend, but the days of free agents signing with NE at a discount because they want a ring are over. They're going to have to pay market price for their players from now on. And of course, all the cap space in the world won't fix their QB problem. Why not just retire and call it a career? If you're Belichick, why suffer through a rebuild that you're just going to hand off to the next guy anyway?
Obviously I'm sure he'd like to stick around and break Shula's record, but that's still quite a ways off, which is pretty amazing. I think he needs 43 more wins to catch Shula. That's at least four more full seasons and honestly probably more than that at this point. All while looking up at Buffalo and Miami.
As we've all seen, teams can make very quick turnarounds if they get lucky and land the right QB. The Patriots caught the luckiest break in the history of the league and possibly all of North American sports with Brady. The Bills got lucky to hit on Allen. Maybe fortune smiles on Belichick and he manages to snag a franchise QB, but God knows lots of franchises have been mired in a perpetual cycle of 7-9, 6-10, 8-8, 9-7, 7-9, etc. without one.
Regardless, I enjoy watching him scowl on the sideline while getting blown out. He's welcome to stick around for a while if he likes.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Josh Allen accounts for more TDs for the Bills than they have punts all season. That’s a pretty crazy factoid.
Buffalo’s run defense is still sketchy though. But IMO, if you’re going to have a great passing offense, a great run defense is the one area it’s probably most ok to be weak in. The goal being to have a good enough pass defense where you put up points and force opposing teams to pass the ball rather than run it. The biggest danger is turning over the ball early and letting the opponent get out to a decent lead which then allows them to grind it out on the ground.
Buffalo’s run defense is still sketchy though. But IMO, if you’re going to have a great passing offense, a great run defense is the one area it’s probably most ok to be weak in. The goal being to have a good enough pass defense where you put up points and force opposing teams to pass the ball rather than run it. The biggest danger is turning over the ball early and letting the opponent get out to a decent lead which then allows them to grind it out on the ground.
Mr. Peterson
Footballguy
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Riddick was saying at the beginning of the game that, when asked about Allen being an MVP candidate, Belichick downplayed it and said that while Allen had improved and was playing well, he didn’t see it (meaning an MVP) and that the Patriots had done just fine against him earlier this year.
Kind of surprising since BB typically goes the other direction and heaps praise on opponents even when it’s not clear it’s deserved.
ChiefD
Footballguy
Based on what I've seen over the last month or so, the Bills are the frontrunner in the AFC. They are just firing on all cylinders right now and look like they are peaking at the right time. In all phases of the game.
That is a really, really good team. And if they make it to the Super Bowl over the Chiefs, I'll be rooting for them big-time.
Buffalo has waited a long time for this kind of team. You guys deserve this.
That is a really, really good team. And if they make it to the Super Bowl over the Chiefs, I'll be rooting for them big-time.
Buffalo has waited a long time for this kind of team. You guys deserve this.
