**Steelers (10-7) at Bills (11-6)** (-10, 36.5) Sun 1pm (1 Viewer)

[GroveDiesel]

Steelers come in as a heavy underdog, but have done an excellent job dragging opponents into the muck, playing excellent defense, and winning a lot of games. TJ Watt’s injury could be a huge obstacle to overcome.

The Bills have been a sloppy team with a lot of huge variances not only week to week, but even within games. Will Good Josh show up, or Bad Josh? The defense has been playing great, but it will probably come down to what it always comes down to: Josh Allen. He’ll likely either win the game or lose the game.

The biggest X-factor is the weather. It could be a significant equalizer for a Steeler team that would love to run the ball with power and play low scoring versus a Bills team that would prefer to throw and rack up points.

 

[karl.Racki]

I think Buf will win even tho I picked Pittsburgh yesterday as a homer pick, but Steelers +10 looks good.. I think Steelers will keep it close.

 

[Rubi]

As I noted in the Packers/Cowboys thread.
Since The NFL went to a 7 team Conference Playoff in 2020,the 7 seed is 0-6.
Buffalo hasn't been dominant in the last month but they keep getting W's.
Watt is out for Pittsburgh,not good for them.
Mike Tomlin is a very underappreciated coah in Pittsburgh.
But I think Josh Allen and The Bills are about to make a deep playoff run...

Bills- 30
Steelers- 9

 

[karl.Racki]

As I noted in the Packers/Cowboys thread.
Since The NFL went to a 7 team Conference Playoff in 2020,the 7 seed is 0-6.
Buffalo hasn't been dominant in the last month but they keep getting W's.
Watt is out for Pittsburgh,not good for them.
Mike Tomlin is a very underappreciated coah in Pittsburgh.
But I think Josh Allen and The Bills are about to make a deep playoff run...

Bills- 30
Steelers- 9

I don't.. I question the coaching in Buffalo and worry Allen makes too many mistakes.. I feel one win is their ceiling.

 

[Rubi]

As I noted in the Packers/Cowboys thread.
Since The NFL went to a 7 team Conference Playoff in 2020,the 7 seed is 0-6.
Buffalo hasn't been dominant in the last month but they keep getting W's.
Watt is out for Pittsburgh,not good for them.
Mike Tomlin is a very underappreciated coah in Pittsburgh.
But I think Josh Allen and The Bills are about to make a deep playoff run...

Bills- 30
Steelers- 9

I don't.. I question the coaching in Buffalo and worry Allen makes too many mistakes.. I feel one win is their ceiling.

Fair enough. I think they win this week handily. If the seeds hold they would get KC at home.
Both flawed but I'll take Bills at home.
That would put them in The AFC Championship Game most probably in Baltimore.
Yes they could/should lose that one,but that qualifies as a "deep playoff run" imop

 

[Timmay]

Bills have been finding ways to win the last 6 or so weeks. Getting hot at the right time. I think Bills win this one but Steelers cover in an ugly all around game. Josh Allen just needs to take care of the ball in order for this team to make a run in the playoffs. Sadly that is one thing he doesn't do well.

Bills 20
Steelers 13

 

[travdogg]

Really get the feeling Mason Rudolph is about to lay a giant egg.

This feels like the lock of the week, especially with no Watt. They are an entirely different team when he's out.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

In theory, this game should be a laugher. But the Bills nearly found ways to lose must-win games to the likes of the Chargers and Patriots, so who knows. This feels like one of those games where Allen can basically choose the final score, but he likes to add a little RNG to the mix.

 

[fred_1_15301]

Really get the feeling Mason Rudolph is about to lay a giant egg.

This feels like the lock of the week, especially with no Watt. They are an entirely different team when he's out.

I agree with this. We saw how Rudolph performs last week in bad weather and it isn't pretty. As long as the Bills don't completely meltdown, this is a horrible matchup for the Steelers. I said it when the matchup was announced. I much preferred going to KC (or even Miami with all their injuries). If Watt was playing, I would give the Steelers a fighters chance because he's absolutely one of the most (if not the most) disruptive players in football. With all that said, I'm still excited that the Steelers are in the playoffs. It will be good clipboard carrying experience for Pickett

 

[sm8680]

Key take away Bills are on a 5-game win streak. GroveDiesel already mentioned the weather. Others mentioned that Josh Allen will need to be a turnover machine for the Steelers to be in the game.

My stats on the next one might be slightly off. Steelers are 1-10 when TJ Watt doesn't play. Steelers surrender 20 points a game with him. Without him 26 points.

Mason Rudolph will need to play his best game of the season. For Bills to go deep into the playoffs the Bills will need to leverage Stefon Diggs more.

 

[Gottabesweet]

Anyone going? even Stillers fans? Welcome to come to our tailgate and meet up, We have a big spread come help yourself. Would be cool to meet up with some FBG's

 

[belljr]

Anyone going? even Stillers fans? Welcome to come to our tailgate and meet up, We have a big spread come help yourself. Would be cool to meet up with some FBG's

I'm not falling for this again

There is about a 2% chance I may end up going if I do I will send a PM

 

[Gottabesweet]

Anyone going? even Stillers fans? Welcome to come to our tailgate and meet up, We have a big spread come help yourself. Would be cool to meet up with some FBG's

I'm not falling for this again

There is about a 2% chance I may end up going if I do I will send a PM

Sounds good, we'll be in the back on Hammer's lot (pintotailgate on ig) I can get you a map - just DM me.

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

Anyone going? even Stillers fans? Welcome to come to our tailgate and meet up, We have a big spread come help yourself. Would be cool to meet up with some FBG's

I'll be there with my brother and son. Not sure what our plans are yet, in terms of location, how early we go etc. We usually meet up with another group that may or may not be going. I haven't heard the latest.

 

[Godsbrother]

I went a couple of years ago when the Steelers got absolutely blown out in Buffalo.

I have a buddy that is a lifelong Bills fan and has been a season ticket holder for decades. His group has a massive tailgate and it was a great time, Buffalo fans could not have been nicer.

That said the temp was in the 59s but it was overcast and windy. My face was really windburned after the game.

Glad I’m not going this week

 

[Insein]

No Watt. Steelers won't be able to keep up I think.

Bills 27
Stillers 12

 

[Max55]

I think the Steelers lose this game 8 or 9 times out of 10.

But the worse the weather gets the more of a chance I think the Steelers have to win.

 

[fred_1_15301]

The more I think about it, I feel the bad weather conditions hurt the Steelers more than the Bills. Sure the Steelers might be able to run the ball a little better but I think their best shot is Rudolph and the receivers capitalizing on a couple big plays. They are not a team that can sustain long drives. The big plays won’t happen in bad conditions. I also assume Allen and the Bills are fairly comfortable playing in bad conditions? I swear this is not an attempt at a reverse jinx. I don’t see how the Steelers win this game.

 

[Max55]

The more I think about it, I feel the bad weather conditions hurt the Steelers more than the Bills. Sure the Steelers might be able to run the ball a little better but I think their best shot is Rudolph and the receivers capitalizing on a couple big plays. They are not a team that can sustain long drives. The big plays won’t happen in bad conditions. I also assume Allen and the Bills are fairly comfortable playing in bad conditions? I swear this is not an attempt at a reverse jinx. I don’t see how the Steelers win this game.

We can agree to disagree on this one. I feel bad weather generally hurts the better offense more which in this case is the Bills. The bad weather can slow the offense down.

Plus if it’s wet and windy that increases the chance of a bad bounce, a fumble, etc. which Pittsburgh almost has to win the turnover battle to have any chance.

Bad weather helps the underdog IMO.

 

[ChiefD]

The Steelers have no chance in this game. They did a great job making something out of this season but Buffalo can now breathe easy now that they ”made it”. The pressure is off them.

Buffalo fixin’ to start ballin’.

 

[-OZ-]

Without Watt, Allen is going to ball. 28-17 at the best.

 

[Steelers4Life]

There's a reason why the Steelers are 1-10 all time without TJ Watt. The replacements this year are a little better than in the past, but its going to take a miracle for the Steelers to not lose by double digits.

Maybe if they can manage 150+ rushing yards, 1 or 2 defensive or special teams TDs, 2+ turnovers, and at least 1 long offensive TD they can keep it close enough to have a chance in the 4th quarter.

 

[Gottabesweet]

The Bills don’t do well when the spread is over one possession.

 

[pecorino]

The bad weather definitely helps the Steelers. They showed an improved running game in the past several weeks. They’ll look to grind the clock and win ugly. The other major factor will be Josh Allen’s turnovers. If he limits those to one or fewer, the Bills win a close one. If the Steelers get sack/fumble twice (which is a definite possibility) then the game is a coin flip. I think Allen protects the rock and the Bills escape 17-13.

 

[pecorino]

Oh and this will be a coming out party for Herbig. He is good.

 

[The Duff Man]

Anyone going? even Stillers fans? Welcome to come to our tailgate and meet up, We have a big spread come help yourself. Would be cool to meet up with some FBG's

I will be there, just need to determine if I am bringing a buddy or my 16 yr old daughter. I am not sure if the latter is up for the Hammer lot

 

[IvanKaramazov]

The more I think about it, I feel the bad weather conditions hurt the Steelers more than the Bills. Sure the Steelers might be able to run the ball a little better but I think their best shot is Rudolph and the receivers capitalizing on a couple big plays. They are not a team that can sustain long drives. The big plays won’t happen in bad conditions. I also assume Allen and the Bills are fairly comfortable playing in bad conditions? I swear this is not an attempt at a reverse jinx. I don’t see how the Steelers win this game.

No offense to the Steelers, but the Bills are obviously the better team. The Steelers should welcome anything that adds variance to this game, including bad weather.

 

[rockaction]

Oh and this will be a coming out party for Herbig. He is good.

I tried to hold him on my roster in an IDP dynasty league this year throughout the year and eventually caved and cut him. I just didn't see Highsmith and Watt going away anytime soon, and that roster spot was needed for other things.

I think he's going to be good, though. The big knock on him is size and that he has shorter arms for a pass rusher, but guys have overcome much more than that.

 

[doeseatplace]

I think Buf will win even tho I picked Pittsburgh yesterday as a homer pick, but Steelers +10 looks good.. I think Steelers will keep it close.

Agree on +10, even if it’s backdoored

 

[3 hour lunch]

Whenever these playoff games with large spreads stay close, at least for a while, it always gets the crowd nervous. Not sure about the players. Pittsburgh has been running the ball great and Rudolph has been smart. I can totally see a few long frustrating drives with a lot of Harris. As others have said, if Allen throws a bad pick or two, suddenly Pitt could have the ball a ton. With all that said I just can’t pick them to win. Talent prevails…

Buffalo 23
Pitt 20

 

[Gottabesweet]

Anyone going? even Stillers fans? Welcome to come to our tailgate and meet up, We have a big spread come help yourself. Would be cool to meet up with some FBG's

I will be there, just need to determine if I am bringing a buddy or my 16 yr old daughter. I am not sure if the latter is up for the Hammer lot

No Ketchup and mustard this week but you can try some of Pizza Pete's famous filing cabinet pizza! kid friendly if you decide to come! DM!

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

I'm trying to talk my brother into getting up bright and early to make it to that lot. My 8-yo son already heard all the colorful words his brain could absorb at the Pats game (Holy-cow we were around some belligerence.), so I'm not too worried about that. Might as well step it up one degree and party in a real lot. Then next year he can start doing shots, right?

 

[Godsbrother]

The Steelers have no chance in this game. They did a great job making something out of this season but Buffalo can now breathe easy now that they ”made it”. The pressure is off them.

Buffalo fixin’ to start ballin’.

Of course they have a chance. This is the NFL so anything is possible.

That said I’ll be surprised if the Bills don’t cover.

Bills: 31
Steelers: 17

 

[fred_1_15301]

This kind of has a similar feeling to when the Steelers played the Chiefs a few years ago in the playoffs. We all knew they had no shot and it turned out they actually didn’t.

 

[McBokonon]

This kind of has a similar feeling to when the Steelers played the Chiefs

Not even close. I KNEW the Steelers were getting blasted against the Chiefs. I had zero doubts. I can see scenarios where the Steelers keep it close against the Bills this year - that year against the Chiefs, I was just hoping not to lose by 60.

 

[GroveDiesel]

Potential for lake effect snow, 30 mph winds, and wind chill temps of 5-10 degrees.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Rumors the game could be moved to Cleveland (though weirdly, it's from a British tabloid)

 

[GroveDiesel]

Rumors the game could be moved to Cleveland (though weirdly, it's from a British tabloid)

League says no truth to that

 

[Godsbrother]

Was just offered a $150 ticket to the game from my buddy in Buffalo. My son and daughter in law are taking the wife and I to a show and dinner Saturday night and I really don't feel like driving at 5:00 or 6:00 on Sunday morning to tailgate in the elements and then spend another 4 hours in a frozen stadium to most likely watch my favorite team get beat. Then face another 3-4 hour drive back home.

Call me a bad fan but I declined.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Rumors the game could be moved to Cleveland (though weirdly, it's from a British tabloid)

League says no truth to that

I don’t think it will happen, but I couldn’t help notice that’s one of those classic “non-denial” denials. “There is no change” doesn’t rule out the possibility that there WILL be a change in the future

 

[belljr]

Was just offered a $150 ticket to the game from my buddy in Buffalo. My son and daughter in law are taking the wife and I to a show and dinner Saturday night and I really don't feel like driving at 5:00 or 6:00 on Sunday morning to tailgate in the elements and then spend another 4 hours in a frozen stadium to most likely watch my favorite team get beat. Then face another 3-4 hour drive back home.

Call me a bad fan but I declined.

I too turned down tickets for similar reasons. Plus it's the last day before my kid goes back to college

 

[belljr]

We can do it!!!!

 

[fred_1_15301]

Was just offered a $150 ticket to the game from my buddy in Buffalo. My son and daughter in law are taking the wife and I to a show and dinner Saturday night and I really don't feel like driving at 5:00 or 6:00 on Sunday morning to tailgate in the elements and then spend another 4 hours in a frozen stadium to most likely watch my favorite team get beat. Then face another 3-4 hour drive back home.

Call me a bad fan but I declined.

I would have made the same choice. I generally almost always prefer watching Steelers games in my basement in front of the big screen rather than going to a stadium.

 

[Tanner9919]

Buffalo are like sharks at chummed waters it's a feast. there's no way steelers even keep it respectable , Bills win this one going away 40-13

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Hmmnnn. Weather forecast. Up to 2 feet of snow with winds up to 44 mph.
LINK

 

[Chaos34]

Hmmnnn. Weather forecast. Up to 2 feet of snow with winds up to 44 mph.
LINK

Pittsburgh will win 4-2.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

I like "weather" games. I'm looking forward to watching KC-MIA as a neutral (sort of), and I'm looking forward to this one, even though bad weather favors the underdog.

 

[GroveDiesel]

:BuildADome:

 

[FarFromHome]

Gabe Davis out.

 

[GroveDiesel]

Gabe Davis out.

In most games I wouldn’t be overly concerned, but in a game lining up to potentially involve a lot of the fun game, he will be missed more than normal.