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Alfred Morris, why is he rated so low (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter KellysHeroes
- Start date
Todd Andrews
Footballguy
Guys, they are still running the zone blocking scheme. The offensive line coach is the same and they are leaving a lot if not most of the running game the same.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
thought I saw something upthread that said they are moving from the ZBS to a "power" running game, whatever that means.
it was a washington times piece.
Shrug. if the ZBS stays even better.
MattFancy
Footballguy
Gruden said when he was hired that they would keep the ZBS and Sean McVay (the new OC) was working under the Shannys and knows the ZBS. Could they move more to a power run scheme? Sure. But I think they'll see how the ZBS works this year and adjust.
False Start
Footballguy
With the bolded, how does this not make people love what the potential of an already stud back can be? Yes if you only trail ADP in total yards over the past two years, you are a certified stud.
Chaka
Footballguy
False Start
Footballguy
Whats that have to do with the price of Tea in China? Different OLine, different QB, different WRs, different RB... see the sequence?
False Start
Footballguy
What I meant, as I miss-typed as it was clearly stated in the article. Thanks for letting me know its not the same thing, I would never have noticed without you.
Chaka
Footballguy
Chaka
Footballguy
No problem. Happy to help.What I meant, as I miss-typed as it was clearly stated in the article. Thanks for letting me know its not the same thing, I would never have noticed without you.
JFS171
Footballguy
Fair, but they gave 220 carries to a broken down BJGE last year, and had a legit committee with Gio. It wasn't a primary workhorse taking the carries (even at the goalline) with a COP complement.
I'd wager Morris, if healthy, is looking at 250 carries and more receptions than we're probably all expecting. I heart Alf... will probably own him everywhere.
(HULK)
(Smash)
Winning IS Everything
Footballguy
Dan Hindery
Moderator
What makes you say that? I'd personally be shocked if he gets anywhere near that.
Gruden had BJGE spend a ton of time working on his receiving skills too as he wanted him to improve in that area. He had 26 catches total in 2 seasons.
In PPR leagues, I'm pretty down on Morris because he has to put up massive rushing stats to overcome the lack of points he generates in the passing game.
Morris is being drafted ahead of Reggie Bush in PPR leagues and Bush put up over 120 points in just the passing game last season. Alfred Morris put up less than 20. That's a 100 point gap in terms of what they scored from receptions.
Morris would have to rush for 1,000 more yards than Bush just to come out even. Or score 5 more rushing TDs and rush for 700 more yards.
I personally don't see it happening and I think Morris is getting over drafted in PPR leagues.
(HULK)
(Smash)
cause Gruden likes to pass to backs and Morris is by far the best rb on the team. And Morris can catch fine, he just wasn't required to do so previously.
ISUDESTROYERS
Footballguy
Drafting from the 6 spot, I drafted him in the 4th round and didn't blink an eye. And yes...this is a PPR League.
Faust
MVP
Alfred Morris still powers the Redskins:
http://espn.go.com/blog/washington-redskins/post/_/id/9984/alfred-morris-still-powers-the-redskins
http://espn.go.com/blog/washington-redskins/post/_/id/9984/alfred-morris-still-powers-the-redskins
JFS171
Footballguy
All quiet on the ALF front... I've noticed him sliding a bit in drafts, presumably for a few reasons. One, Shanny's departure and Gruden's new system leading some to believe Morris' workload will be reduced or he'll spend large chunks of the game on the sideline. Some also attribute his early-career production solely to the Shanahan system and believe with it's departure (though indications are they're still running the ZBS) he'll fall off a cliff. However, reading back up thread it certainly seems like WAS coaches and teammates were saying Morris worked incredibly hard to ensure pass receiving was a bigger part of his skillset. Even within the last week, coverage continues on Morris improving his receiving abilities. Obviously Helu will have a role, and I personally believe Seastrunk will end up as a solid complementary runner down the road, but for this season it still feels like it's the Morris show.
I'll point out this post by Birdnals earlier this year examining RB career trajectories. He admits the study is imperfect, but directional evidence can still be useful, and in his sample set he found third year RBs who experienced a dip in performance in their second season bounced back 55% of the time, and on average experienced a 76% increase in production. Morris's rookie year was worth 258 points in PPR; his second worth 186. A 76% increase on 186 would produce his best season ever. Now perhaps that's unrealistic, but the drop last year is partially attributed to attempts (decreased by 59) and TDs (decreased by 6). His efficiency was pretty much the same (4.6 YPC vs. 4.8 as a rookie; 8.7 YPR vs. 7.0 as a rook).
The risks are known -- team falls behind early in games and is forced to throw, leading to more Helu/other backs and less ALF. People look at Gio and BJGE's usage under Gruden last year and assume a similar two back system is coming to Washington. Perhaps it is -- at this point none of us know for sure, but the problem with that assumption at this point in time is that ALF is WAY, WAY better than BJGE (who still garnered 220 carries under Gruden), and Helu isn't Gio. If ALF can up the receptions to a couple per game, finishing in the 25-35 range, even better. He's likely never going to be as explosive as a third down, COP guy in the passing game, but he's a mack truck at the same time. Get him wide of the line and running at DBs and it's bound to produce good results.
I found myself down on ALF as the preseason wore on... was exploring the trade market to send him packing in my dynasty... didn't really pursue in my auction. I'm glad I kept him in the former, and am exploring trade offers to get him in the latter. Perhaps i'm too optimistic. Perhaps I was too jaded during the preseason by his sub-par second year and a passing-heavy coach. The more I think about it though, the more I think he's going to be just fine, and the more I think he's being undervalued by the marketplace right now. One of the best things about ALF in my opinion is his humble, grounded approach to the game and to his career/job. He's an incredibly hard worker... and he's clearly talented. That's not a guy I'm going to bet against.
What say you guys?
I'll point out this post by Birdnals earlier this year examining RB career trajectories. He admits the study is imperfect, but directional evidence can still be useful, and in his sample set he found third year RBs who experienced a dip in performance in their second season bounced back 55% of the time, and on average experienced a 76% increase in production. Morris's rookie year was worth 258 points in PPR; his second worth 186. A 76% increase on 186 would produce his best season ever. Now perhaps that's unrealistic, but the drop last year is partially attributed to attempts (decreased by 59) and TDs (decreased by 6). His efficiency was pretty much the same (4.6 YPC vs. 4.8 as a rookie; 8.7 YPR vs. 7.0 as a rook).
The risks are known -- team falls behind early in games and is forced to throw, leading to more Helu/other backs and less ALF. People look at Gio and BJGE's usage under Gruden last year and assume a similar two back system is coming to Washington. Perhaps it is -- at this point none of us know for sure, but the problem with that assumption at this point in time is that ALF is WAY, WAY better than BJGE (who still garnered 220 carries under Gruden), and Helu isn't Gio. If ALF can up the receptions to a couple per game, finishing in the 25-35 range, even better. He's likely never going to be as explosive as a third down, COP guy in the passing game, but he's a mack truck at the same time. Get him wide of the line and running at DBs and it's bound to produce good results.
I found myself down on ALF as the preseason wore on... was exploring the trade market to send him packing in my dynasty... didn't really pursue in my auction. I'm glad I kept him in the former, and am exploring trade offers to get him in the latter. Perhaps i'm too optimistic. Perhaps I was too jaded during the preseason by his sub-par second year and a passing-heavy coach. The more I think about it though, the more I think he's going to be just fine, and the more I think he's being undervalued by the marketplace right now. One of the best things about ALF in my opinion is his humble, grounded approach to the game and to his career/job. He's an incredibly hard worker... and he's clearly talented. That's not a guy I'm going to bet against.
What say you guys?
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Pass heavy coach, but I believe in the possibility Morris catches more passes this year.
mphtrilogy
Footballguy
The lawfirm was pretty good last year with this coach...
I keep waffling on him, but wouldnt mind him this season
I keep waffling on him, but wouldnt mind him this season
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Pretty good? He averaged 7.2 fantasy standard ppg. That was 43rd amongst RBs. If ALF makes you think of BJGE, then you should run from Morris.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
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False Start
Footballguy
Yeah, if anything it should make you feel they will use the one great asset they could that doesnt involve the passing game.
mphtrilogy
Footballguy
cloppbeast
Footballguy
I only have concern about Gruden getting away from the whole zone-stretch philosophy, which played a big part in the success of Morris with Shanahans. I don't think he will have nearly the same effectiveness running power.
Then again, I think Gruden will use Morris more as a receiver than the Shanihans ever did, especially if Griffin plays as terrible as some of us expect. I'd rather have my crappy signal caller throwing a dump off or screen to a running back than a receiver down field.
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False Start
Footballguy
First, Morris is not BJGE, he is actually a good player.
Second, watching the game on NFL replay now, I'm noticing Morris in on 3rd and longs and running pass routes.
Any thinking that Morris is going to be used the same as last year with a new coaching staff is not very sharkish. Morris is the RB with the most talent and the drop off after him is huge. Do you think a first year coach is going to not use his best weapons? Especially when we seen from Gruden in Cincinnati.
Morris is going to be solid solid player this year and well worth his ADP, if not better... in all formats.
False Start
Footballguy
MattFancy
Footballguy
I've been saying it all offseason. Dude has the 2nd most rushing yards the last 2 years behind only AP. He's certainly not a washed up BJGE at this point in his career. Morris is different from both RBs Gruden had last year in Cinncy. Morris is a much better runner than Gio and BJGE. Sure, Gio probably beats him in the passing game, but Morris isn't a bum there either. He just wasn't used in the passing game by the Shanny's. Morris was the leading receiver for the NFC in the Pro Bowl. Think he had like 4/69 or something like that. I'd be thrilled with Morris has my RB2 and he has RB1 potential, especially in non-PPR leagues.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Whether or not he can or can't run power doesn't negate his vision as his best asset. On a continuum, Morris will have more effectiveness in zone versus power. Maybe it's the difference between averaging 4.3 ypc and 4.8 ypc.Why? Nothing in his ability has shown me he cant.
False Start
Footballguy
In TD heavy league he is a RB1, he had 13 TDs two years ago and 7 last year, which was a down year for Redskins.
The only reason he isnt being drafted higher is because the "experts" dont have him rated higher. Those experts are never wrong though.
False Start
Footballguy
I need to know if we are talking fantasy or NFL talk here.Whether or not he can or can't run power doesn't negate his vision as his best asset. On a continuum, Morris will have more effectiveness in zone versus power. Maybe it's the difference between averaging 4.3 ypc and 4.8 ypc.Why? Nothing in his ability has shown me he cant.
Because quite honestly, ypc is irrelevant in fantasy. I dont care if he runs 40 times for 80 yards and a score or 120 times for 80 and a score. As long as he puts up points, and Morris upside says he can do that.
Keep it simple, the reason so many lose at this game is they over think it or over coach it.
chinawildman
Footballguy
In the context of one game, yes.
Over the course of a season? No.
If a guy is putting up points but averaging less than 4ypc for the beginning of the season I'd be looking to move him.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
1. To steal a line from the FBG podcasters Bloom, Waldman, and Lammey, that requires an "assumption of rational coaching." Will Gruden get away from his philosophy and really run the ball more? I don't think we can just accept that. I think in his first year, like most guys, he has his plan that he has developed over the many years of coaching and that he will do everything he can to make his plan work. If he does adjust it, I don't think it is very early in the year.
2. The Redskins defense is likely one of the worst defenses in the NFL. If the Redskins offense can't keep up, than we may see a situation similar to last yeah where the team is down big and has to lean heavy on the pass. This minimizes the number of carries gets. How much will he be on the field if the team is down 17 points in the 4th quarter?
3. One of the big advantages of Morris is that he is likely to get all of the goal line carries. If I have Morris, I want the Redskins to have a very high powered offense and to create a lot of GL opportunities for Morris.
VikingFrog
Footballguy
Helu liked vulturing touchdowns last year. As well as the full back in that other game. There were two games last year where it felt like Morriss missed out on about 5 touchdowns.
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Ilov80s
Footballguy
That is misleading, according to Rotowire, Helu had 4 carries inside the 10 yard line last year. It just so happens 3 of them were in the same game and he scored on all 3 of those. That was week 7 against the Bears. He didn't score another TD the rest of the year. I wouldn't put any stock into the idea of Helu vulturing TDs.
VikingFrog
Footballguy
Yeah, that's why I mentioned those two games. Darrel Young had 3 touchdowns in the overtime win versus the chargers.
People would be talking about Morriss in a different light and drafting him differently with 6 more touchdowns on his 2013 resume.
Two very odd games. And rember being very frustrated watching Morriss march down the field in both games and not get the score.
False Start
Footballguy
From Rotowrold:
Morris is stone hands?
So because his idiot of a coach does not know how to use any of its players the last few years, he has stone hands?
Did Rotoworld not see how he led all the elite superstars without stone hands in receiving in the ProBowl?
Its unreal almost their attempt to show all they are is a retweet site with useless rhetoric. They even go on to compare the carries last year to a far less superior power back to a more superior scat/cop back.
Morris >>>>>> The Firm
Bernard >>>>>>>>>> Helu
The Rotoworld rhetoric and hyperbole must stop. They look pathetic.
Morris is stone hands?
So because his idiot of a coach does not know how to use any of its players the last few years, he has stone hands?
Did Rotoworld not see how he led all the elite superstars without stone hands in receiving in the ProBowl?
Its unreal almost their attempt to show all they are is a retweet site with useless rhetoric. They even go on to compare the carries last year to a far less superior power back to a more superior scat/cop back.
Morris >>>>>> The Firm
Bernard >>>>>>>>>> Helu
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Rotoworld at it's finest. Helu is the best pass protector? Not according to the HC of the Redskins.
False Start
Footballguy
Agree, but these teams dont tip their hand in preseason. I have no doubts Helu will get his share of touches as all backups do, my point is how Rotoworld approaches Morris talent.
cstu
Footballguy
I agree completely about their snarky comments. For a so-called 'professional news service' they are more amateur than the Shark Pool.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
That's pretty good value, I'm used to see him going 3/4 in ffpc which in those round, he's hands off for me. I've never seen him drop that low.
As for rotoworld, yes, their bias is blatant but who cares? Use it to your advantage if you so happen to think they're completely off base.
