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QB Tom Brady, TB (2 Viewers)

I just traded a 3rd round pick next year for him. I had Cutler and Romo so needed someone for this week in case Romo doesn't go. It's a contract keeper league (Romo's contract is over and so is Brady's) and didn't have anyone I wanted to cut so I traded for Brady and then just cut Romo.

 
Peyton down, Luck down, Stafford down. Rodgers and Rivers to go.

Whoops.

 
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Tom Brady completed 38-of-53 passes for 349 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception in the Patriots' Week 12 win over the Lions.

Surgical in a spread offense the Patriots designed specifically to attack Detroit's stout defensive front, Brady found Tim Wright for touchdown throws of 4 and 8 yards in the first half. Brady's lone slip-up was a red-zone interception early in the third quarter intended for Rob Gronkowski. Tom Terrific didn't take a single sack on Sunday. Brady has now topped 300 passing yards in 63 career games, tying Dan Marino in the NFL record books. Shredding even the league's best defenses these days, Brady has reemerged as a top-shelf fantasy QB1 after a painfully slow first month of the season. The Patriots visit the Packers at Lambeau Field next in a potential shootout.

Nov 23 - 4:45 PM
 
Rotoworld:

Tom Brady - QB - Patriots

The Boston Globe's Ben Volin expects Tom Brady to only play a half Week 17 against the Bills.

This report echoes an earlier report from ESPN Boston's Mike Reiss, who said the Patriots could treat the meaningless game as a fourth preseason contest. Regardless of the exact snap count, it is becoming clear Brady and the Patriots' starters will not play a full game against the Bills. Already in a tough matchup, Brady needs to be avoided in both seasonal and daily formats.

Source: Ben Volin on Twitter

Dec 27 - 10:08 AM
 
A decent year overall but virtually useless in week 16 when I needed him most. Trust the Pats to get all conservative in that week of all weeks. Oh well, can't complain too much, the middle of the season performances got me more wins than losses.

 
To be fair all the big name qbs under performed for the fantasy title game.

Peyton

Rodgers

Brady

Brees

Luck

Stafford

 
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To be fair all the big name qbs under performed for the fantasy title game.

Peyton

Rodgers

Brady

Brees

Luck

Stafford
Fixed, you said big name QBs and Stafford lost his chance to be mentioned with the other QBs you listed.

Also Brady worked his back into this list. You could very well see a downfall at the start of the season until he recovered with Gronk.

 
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To be fair all the big name qbs under performed for the fantasy title game.

Peyton

Rodgers

Brady

Brees

Luck

Stafford
Fixed, you said big name QBs and Stafford lost his chance to be mentioned with the other QBs you listed.

Also Brady worked his back into this list. You could very well see a downfall at the start of the season until he recovered with Gronk.
At the beginning of the year Stafford was being drafted as a top 5 or 6 quarterback and even though he struggled throughout the year many people had given him a pass because Calvin was out/gimpy for about 5 games. He was supposed to break out of it with a soft schedule at the end the of year with Chicago twice, Tampa, and Minnesota. So you can take him out now, but you are hindsight in doing so.

 
To be fair all the big name qbs under performed for the fantasy title game.

Peyton

Rodgers

Brady

Brees

Luck

Stafford
Fixed, you said big name QBs and Stafford lost his chance to be mentioned with the other QBs you listed.

Also Brady worked his back into this list. You could very well see a downfall at the start of the season until he recovered with Gronk.
At the beginning of the year Stafford was being drafted as a top 5 or 6 quarterback and even though he struggled throughout the year many people had given him a pass because Calvin was out/gimpy for about 5 games. He was supposed to break out of it with a soft schedule at the end the of year with Chicago twice, Tampa, and Minnesota. So you can take him out now, but you are hindsight in doing so.
I know I have had Stafford before and even had him with Luck/Tannehill in my start 2QB team (not in redraft this year due to high price). I am saying that list of top QBs had some bad games and that Stafford doesn't belong on it when trying to compare what happened at the end of the season and looking forward is all. I give a pass to everyone else on that list though for 1 or 2 bad games during the playoffs.

 
Rotoworld:

Tom Brady - QB - Patriots

Tom Brady completed 33-of-50 passes for 367 yards, three touchdowns and an interception in New England's 35-31, Divisional Round win over the Ravens.

Brady also added a rushing score. With the Pats completely abandoning their running game they dialed up all of 13 runs they put the contest on Brady's shoulders, and he responded by leading them to their ninth AFC Championship Game in 14 years. Brady threw some ducks none uglier than his pick near the end of the first half but was surgical at the short-to-intermediate levels, finding Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola for 20 total receptions. Brady and the Pats will host either the Colts or Broncos next Sunday.

Jan 10 - 8:14 PM
 
Rotoworld:

Tom Brady - QB - Patriots

Tom Brady completed 33-of-50 passes for 367 yards, three touchdowns and an interception in New England's 35-31, Divisional Round win over the Ravens.

Brady also added a rushing score. With the Pats completely abandoning their running game they dialed up all of 13 runs they put the contest on Brady's shoulders, and he responded by leading them to their ninth AFC Championship Game in 14 years. Brady threw some ducks none uglier than his pick near the end of the first half but was surgical at the short-to-intermediate levels, finding Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola for 20 total receptions. Brady and the Pats will host either the Colts or Broncos next Sunday.

Jan 10 - 8:14 PM
He's a machine in cold weather.

 
Rotoworld:

Tom Brady - QB - Patriots

Tom Brady completed 33-of-50 passes for 367 yards, three touchdowns and an interception in New England's 35-31, Divisional Round win over the Ravens.

Brady also added a rushing score. With the Pats completely abandoning their running game they dialed up all of 13 runs they put the contest on Brady's shoulders, and he responded by leading them to their ninth AFC Championship Game in 14 years. Brady threw some ducks none uglier than his pick near the end of the first half but was surgical at the short-to-intermediate levels, finding Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola for 20 total receptions. Brady and the Pats will host either the Colts or Broncos next Sunday.

Jan 10 - 8:14 PM
He's a machine in cold weather.
At home.

 
Jeezus - 9 AFC Championship games in the 13 seasons Brady has played. That's unbelievable.
That's what happens when you play in the AFC East and get home field every year.

He's played in one road game since 2006 - the loss to the Broncos last year.

However, going 2-5 in road playoff games never hurt Montana's legacy.

 
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Jeezus - 9 AFC Championship games in the 13 seasons Brady has played. That's unbelievable.
That's what happens when you play in the AFC East and get home field every year.

He's played in one road game since 2006 - the loss to the Broncos last year.

However, going 2-5 in road playoff games never hurt Montana's legacy.
LOL. It takes a unique mental condition to challenge a stat like that.
 
Jeezus - 9 AFC Championship games in the 13 seasons Brady has played. That's unbelievable.
That's what happens when you play in the AFC East and get home field every year.

He's played in one road game since 2006 - the loss to the Broncos last year.

However, going 2-5 in road playoff games never hurt Montana's legacy.
LOL. It takes a unique mental condition to challenge a stat like that.
Yeah, that is an absurdly good stat. 9/13.

 
Jeezus - 9 AFC Championship games in the 13 seasons Brady has played. That's unbelievable.
That's what happens when you play in the AFC East and get home field every year.

He's played in one road game since 2006 - the loss to the Broncos last year.

However, going 2-5 in road playoff games never hurt Montana's legacy.
sure, afc east is weak, but that only accounts for 1/2 their games. There have been other weak conferences in the past decade- Nfc north, afc south, and yet you dont see another team going to 9 conference championships.

 
Jeezus - 9 AFC Championship games in the 13 seasons Brady has played. That's unbelievable.
That's what happens when you play in the AFC East and get home field every year.

He's played in one road game since 2006 - the loss to the Broncos last year.

However, going 2-5 in road playoff games never hurt Montana's legacy.
sure, afc east is weak, but that only accounts for 1/2 their games. There have been other weak conferences in the past decade- Nfc north, afc south, and yet you dont see another team going to 9 conference championships.
Patriots regular season record since 2001 (Colts included in division for 2001)

overall 170-54 .759

division 67-19 .779

out of division 103-35 .746

 
Jeezus - 9 AFC Championship games in the 13 seasons Brady has played. That's unbelievable.
That's what happens when you play in the AFC East and get home field every year.

He's played in one road game since 2006 - the loss to the Broncos last year.

However, going 2-5 in road playoff games never hurt Montana's legacy.
sure, afc east is weak, but that only accounts for 1/2 their games. There have been other weak conferences in the past decade- Nfc north, afc south, and yet you dont see another team going to 9 conference championships.
Patriots regular season record since 2001 (Colts included in division for 2001)

overall 170-54 .759

division 67-19 .779

out of division 103-35 .746
Anyone know if the differences between in and out of division records are far from the norm?

For instance what are Indys in and out of division records for the same period, Pitt, Bal?

 
Jeezus - 9 AFC Championship games in the 13 seasons Brady has played. That's unbelievable.
50% on Brady/Belichick

50% on playing in an absolutely abysmal division every year. Any decent team would be able to make the AFC Championship at least half the time with that competition.

Note: not talking about wins versus those teams. I'm talking about the overall record of those teams each year, which is usually pretty terrible and well outside the playoff race.

 
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Jeezus - 9 AFC Championship games in the 13 seasons Brady has played. That's unbelievable.
50% on Brady/Belichick

50% on playing in an absolutely abysmal division every year. Any decent team would be able to make the AFC Championship at least half the time with that competition.

Note: not talking about wins versus those teams. I'm talking about the overall record of those teams each year, which is usually pretty terrible and well outside the playoff race.
i think it is more than 50% coach/qb. As i said early, a few other divisions have been weak, yet other teams haven't been able to use that to their advantage to have the sustained success the pats have. I never hear a similar argument to knock the Colts down a peg, who people think had the better qb, better offensive weapons, etc. Houston/Tenn/jax are not great competition either. Afc west was a joke for a bit too.

 
Jeezus - 9 AFC Championship games in the 13 seasons Brady has played. That's unbelievable.
50% on Brady/Belichick

50% on playing in an absolutely abysmal division every year. Any decent team would be able to make the AFC Championship at least half the time with that competition.

Note: not talking about wins versus those teams. I'm talking about the overall record of those teams each year, which is usually pretty terrible and well outside the playoff race.
I believe manning made it to the afccg 3 of his 13 years prior to denver

guess that clears up the brady vs manning debate.

thank you, come again

 
Jeezus - 9 AFC Championship games in the 13 seasons Brady has played. That's unbelievable.
50% on Brady/Belichick

50% on playing in an absolutely abysmal division every year. Any decent team would be able to make the AFC Championship at least half the time with that competition.

Note: not talking about wins versus those teams. I'm talking about the overall record of those teams each year, which is usually pretty terrible and well outside the playoff race.
Do you or anyone else that is claiming this have anything to support the opinion?

Maybe your right, I would love to see data that supports the claim. It doesn't seem to make a lot of sense to me; first I don't think the AFC has been that much worse than all the other divisions. Second, even if they were in an easy division they are playing a 1st place schedule every year and like this year it was one of the tuffest in the league. Third, if the weak division theory were correct, how do you explain the strong out of division record. Fourth, you still have to have one of the 2 best records in the conference AND win at least one if not 2 or 3 games against the best team(s) in your conference in order to get to the afccc.

Mia & Buf were pretty darn good this year and the Pats played a difficult schedule, then beat a very tuff baltimore team to get to this years afccc; none of this had anything to do with playing in a weak division.

Not picking on you but your not the first poster to make the claim that the quality of the afc east has been a significant contributing factor in NE getting to 9 afcccs. I don't think the "theory" holds up to even cursory scrutiny.

 
Jeezus - 9 AFC Championship games in the 13 seasons Brady has played. That's unbelievable.
That's what happens when you play in the AFC East and get home field every year.
Either the Colts or the Broncos could have claimed homefield throughout with a win against the Pats this year. How did those games turn out again?
On top of that I would add that if the Broncos had won their home game against Indy last week they would be in the afccc. Point being, it's not easy making the playoffs and it sure as heck aint easy advancing once you get there.

 
Jeezus - 9 AFC Championship games in the 13 seasons Brady has played. That's unbelievable.
That's what happens when you play in the AFC East and get home field every year.

He's played in one road game since 2006 - the loss to the Broncos last year.

However, going 2-5 in road playoff games never hurt Montana's legacy.
sure, afc east is weak, but that only accounts for 1/2 their games. There have been other weak conferences in the past decade- Nfc north, afc south, and yet you dont see another team going to 9 conference championships.
Patriots regular season record since 2001 (Colts included in division for 2001)

overall 170-54 .759

division 67-19 .779

out of division 103-35 .746
Anyone know if the differences between in and out of division records are far from the norm?

For instance what are Indys in and out of division records for the same period, Pitt, Bal?
I'd guess they'd mostly be around the same for in and out of division for most teams. If the Patriots had lost 3 more division games over the last 14 years their out of division record would be slightly better.

I expected a bigger difference since the Patriots play the 2 extra games against 1st place teams each year and the rest of the teams in division have been below average. The other 3 teams in the division are 74 games under .500 in this period. (-48 against the Patriots, -26 against the rest of the league)

 
NFL Division Strength (2002-2013)

25 Aug 2014 -- football outsiders

top 20 best out of division records: (8 divisions x 12 years = 96 sample)

AFCE 4x

AFCS 3x

NFCE 3x

NFCS 3x

AFCW 3x

bottom 20

AFCE 2x

top 20 best scoring differentials

AFCE 5x

AFCW 4x

AFCS 2x

bottom 20

AFCE 1x

top 10 best defensive dvoa

AFCN 3x

AFCE 2x (#1 + #5)

NFCW 2x

NFCE 2x

AFCS 0x

bottom 10

AFCE 0x

AFCS 1x

top 20 overall dvoa

NFCE 5x

AFCE 4x (2004 #1)

AFCW 3x

AFCS 1x

Did you guess the 2004 AFC East as the top division by DVOA? Even though that year was the end of Dave Wannstedt and Ricky Williams in Miami (4-12), that was the strongest that division has been since realignment. Looking at full-season DVOA, New England finished second, Buffalo was third and the Jets were fourth in a stacked AFC
Here's the division summary of cumulative statistics (non-division games only) for 2002-2013:

point differential

AFCE #1 (of 8)

W/L %

AFCE #1

overall dvoa

AFCE #1

but the AFCE has been the worst division in football

ok

shark pool be sharkin'

 
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Here's the division summary of cumulative statistics (non-division games only) for 2002-2013:

point differential

AFCE #1 (of 8)

W/L %

AFCE #1

overall dvoa

AFCE #1

but the AFCE has been the worst division in football

ok

shark pool be sharkin'
Thats some pretty impressive ####.

 
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Since the current league alignment and schedule was instituted in 2002 . . .

Winning percentage within the division:

NE 0.782IND 0.769GB 0.712PIT 0.692DEN 0.682SEA 0.628SD 0.615PHI 0.603BAL 0.577SF 0.571NO 0.551CAR 0.551NYG 0.538DAL 0.526ATL 0.500CHI 0.500MIN 0.494NYJ 0.489CIN 0.474TEN 0.462ARI 0.449KC 0.436MIA 0.397TB 0.397JAC 0.385HOU 0.385BUF 0.372STL 0.353WAS 0.333OAK 0.321DET 0.295CLE 0.256Winning percentage outside the division:

Code:
NE	0.754IND	0.646PIT	0.604PHI	0.588BAL	0.577DEN	0.577GB	0.577SD	0.562DAL	0.562NO	0.554ATL	0.550NYG	0.523SEA	0.523CHI	0.508CIN	0.508TEN	0.500NYJ	0.485CAR	0.481MIA	0.477KC	0.477MIN	0.469HOU	0.446BUF	0.438WAS	0.431TB	0.431SF	0.431ARI	0.431JAC	0.423CLE	0.400STL	0.377DET	0.354OAK	0.323
 
NFL Division Strength (2002-2013)

25 Aug 2014 -- football outsiders

top 20 best out of division records: (8 divisions x 12 years = 96 sample)

AFCE 4x

AFCS 3x

NFCE 3x

NFCS 3x

AFCW 3x

bottom 20

AFCE 2x

top 20 best scoring differentials

AFCE 5x

AFCW 4x

AFCS 2x

bottom 20

AFCE 1x

top 10 best defensive dvoa

AFCN 3x

AFCE 2x (#1 + #5)

NFCW 2x

NFCE 2x

AFCS 0x

bottom 10

AFCE 0x

AFCS 1x

top 20 overall dvoa

NFCE 5x

AFCE 4x (2004 #1)

AFCW 3x

AFCS 1x

Did you guess the 2004 AFC East as the top division by DVOA? Even though that year was the end of Dave Wannstedt and Ricky Williams in Miami (4-12), that was the strongest that division has been since realignment. Looking at full-season DVOA, New England finished second, Buffalo was third and the Jets were fourth in a stacked AFC
Here's the division summary of cumulative statistics (non-division games only) for 2002-2013:

point differential

AFCE #1 (of 8)

W/L %

AFCE #1

overall dvoa

AFCE #1

but the AFCE has been the worst division in football

ok

shark pool be sharkin'
Well other than the Patriots the rest of the division has been on the low end of mediocre. The reason the AFCE finished on top is entirely due to the Patriots. This doesn't really refute the argument that the Patriots division opponents have been weak. (again they are 26 games under .500 against the rest of the NFL since 2001 22 games under .500 from 2002-2013) None of the other teams have won 10+ games 2 years in a row during this period.

OTOH the data doesn't support the common theme from sports writers, talk radio, internet message boards that the Patriots success is due to a weak division. It's been worth about 3 extra regular season wins over a 14 year period.

 
Since the current league alignment and schedule was instituted in 2002 . . .

Winning percentage within the division:

NE 0.782IND 0.769GB 0.712PIT 0.692DEN 0.682SEA 0.628SD 0.615PHI 0.603BAL 0.577SF 0.571NO 0.551CAR 0.551NYG 0.538DAL 0.526ATL 0.500CHI 0.500MIN 0.494NYJ 0.489CIN 0.474TEN 0.462ARI 0.449KC 0.436MIA 0.397TB 0.397JAC 0.385HOU 0.385BUF 0.372STL 0.353WAS 0.333OAK 0.321DET 0.295CLE 0.256Winning percentage outside the division:

NE 0.754IND 0.646PIT 0.604PHI 0.588BAL 0.577DEN 0.577GB 0.577SD 0.562DAL 0.562NO 0.554ATL 0.550NYG 0.523SEA 0.523CHI 0.508CIN 0.508TEN 0.500NYJ 0.485CAR 0.481MIA 0.477KC 0.477MIN 0.469HOU 0.446BUF 0.438WAS 0.431TB 0.431SF 0.431ARI 0.431JAC 0.423CLE 0.400STL 0.377DET 0.354OAK 0.323
Top 10 by difference

SF 0.140

GB 0.135

IND 0.123

DEN 0.105

SEA 0.105

PIT 0.088

CAR 0.070

SD 0.053

NE 0.028

MIN 0.025

 
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Well other than the Patriots the rest of the division has been on the low end of mediocre. The reason the AFCE finished on top is entirely due to the Patriots. This doesn't really refute the argument that the Patriots division opponents have been weak. (again they are 26 games under .500 against the rest of the NFL since 2001 22 games under .500 from 2002-2013) None of the other teams have won 10+ games 2 years in a row during this period.

OTOH the data doesn't support the common theme from sports writers, talk radio, internet message boards that the Patriots success is due to a weak division. It's been worth about 3 extra regular season wins over a 14 year period.
so, what you're telling me is that the pats have been so completely dominant in destroying the rest of the league outside their division that they singlehandedly pulled their ####ty divisionmates to the top of the rankings, outweighing the group effort of all 4 teams in every other division.

but they only beat these teams in the playoffs because ####ty division.

ok

shark pool be sharkin'

any time you want to rejigger all these rankings by removing the top team in each division I'm perfectly happy to read your write up as long as it includes the work for me to fact check.

or did you just plan to leave the colts, packers, et al in their division stats and base the afce on the 3 worst teams?

that seems somewhat both dumb and lazy, but I'm not a statistician

 
Kool-Aid Larry said:
Insomniac said:
Well other than the Patriots the rest of the division has been on the low end of mediocre. The reason the AFCE finished on top is entirely due to the Patriots. This doesn't really refute the argument that the Patriots division opponents have been weak. (again they are 26 games under .500 against the rest of the NFL since 2001 22 games under .500 from 2002-2013) None of the other teams have won 10+ games 2 years in a row during this period.

OTOH the data doesn't support the common theme from sports writers, talk radio, internet message boards that the Patriots success is due to a weak division. It's been worth about 3 extra regular season wins over a 14 year period.
so, what you're telling me is that the pats have been so completely dominant in destroying the rest of the league outside their division that they singlehandedly pulled their ####ty divisionmates to the top of the rankings, outweighing the group effort of all 4 teams in every other division.
The data says the Patriots have been so dominant outside their division that it carried the entire division to the top of the rankings from Football Outsiders despite the fact that all of the other teams in the division were losing teams. Is that clear enough for you?

 
Brady had an okay year this year but I am onboard with Tom Brady 2015-2016 semi-bust if people are taking him prior to the 8th+ rounds. Potential top 10 QB still maybe but he wont sniff the top 5 again in his career I feel.

If Gronk gets injured I would be all-in on Brady Bust Watch.

 
Brady had an okay year this year but I am onboard with Tom Brady 2015-2016 semi-bust if people are taking him prior to the 8th+ rounds. Potential top 10 QB still maybe but he wont sniff the top 5 again in his career I feel.

If Gronk gets injured I would be all-in on Brady Bust Watch.
Everyone knows Brady started very slow the first 4 games - never throwing for more than 250 or 1 td - with line problems and Gronk rounding back into shape. 9 of his 21 sacks came in those four games.

But from game 5 on he threw for 3318 yards and 29 tds. Extrapolating that 11 game stretch over a 16 game season you get 4826 yds and 42 tds. That would have been good enough for #1 in both those stats. Sure it's kind of cherry-picking, and maybe he will never be the #1 qb again, but I don't thing there's any reason to think he "won't sniff the top 5 again".

 
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