Not saying Brady won't be "fine". From a fantasy standpoint how far do you drop him if his receiving corps is made up of UFA ,FA's and other teams cast-offs?
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QB Tom Brady, TB (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter ComfortablyNumb
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PatsFanCT
Footballguy
Considering his O-line and how often he throws the ball, not much at all. Vareen was probably going to see an increase this year, and Amendola should have an exceptional year as well. I guess it comes down to who would you draft ahead of him?
Given the current rosters(and I know there's a long way to week1) I'd put Brady 6th at best behind Rogers,Brees,P.Manning,Newton and Ryan.
PatsFanCT
Footballguy
That's not a big drop. Though I'm not so sure about Newton.Given the current rosters(and I know there's a long way to week1) I'd put Brady 6th at best behind Rogers,Brees,P.Manning,Newton and Ryan.
I give Newton an edge on him because of the rushing yards and TD's. Obviously he isn't the passer Brady is. Given current ADP's Ryan is a better value who can post similiar or better numbers than Brady given the state of the teams current rosters. A lot can change for sure,Gronk can come back healthy for week 1 and Hernandez will be o.k. to play,that would bump Brady back up for sure to at least #4,.maybe 3 imo.That's not a big drop. Though I'm not so sure about Newton.Given the current rosters(and I know there's a long way to week1) I'd put Brady 6th at best behind Rogers,Brees,P.Manning,Newton and Ryan.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
I believe it was 2005 but Brady finished 2nd in fantasy scoring for quarterbacks and his receivers were Troy Brown, David Givens, and Deion Branch. His tight ends were Ben Watson and Daniel Graham. He will be fine
Mr Non Sequitur
Footballguy
Brady is certainly not 1st on my list of must have QBs but if he did drop a couple rounds that would make him a lot more appealing. Imagine Hernandez and Gronk both out week 1. The pats should seriously think about bringing Lloyd back into the cuts. They need something at WR or TE to stop the bleeding. That said I believe the RBs will be showcased and Brady will just throw short passes there plus Amendola and they still continue to move the sticks.
Imagine because of all this Brady does have a down year, the next conversation by the media will be whether Brady should hang 'em up. It's coming, you watch.
Imagine because of all this Brady does have a down year, the next conversation by the media will be whether Brady should hang 'em up. It's coming, you watch.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
The media won't have time. If he has a bad first half in week 1 all the haters here will say I told you so and bring on MallettMr Non Sequitur said:
moleculo
Footballguy
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
My guess is that he will say that Aaron Rodgers is the best player in that division. But that is splitting hairs since Rodgers and Peterson are arguably THE two best players in the league (1a and 1b), so dismissing either as "not the best player in their division" is rather silly.I'm sorry. What's the suggestion here?
Monsters of the Midway
Footballguy
And Calvin Johnson doesn't suck
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Brady scored as many points in 2005 as Andy Dalton did last year. And at least for now, the '05 Patriots supporting cast looks better than what NE will trot out in 2013.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Except the average team put up 3255 and 20 passing in 2005 and 3700 and 24 in 2012. Clearly the game has changed to even more of a passing league today than it was 8 years ago.
The Tom Brady of 2005 is not the Tom Brady of today. He emerged as a weekly QB juggernaut in 2007 and never looked back, and 'real' football opinions are uniformly flattering. The guy is a first-ballot HOFamer, perhaps the GOAT, and can stand a little shake up to his receiving core.
What has really happened here? Gronk and Hernandez were never healthy at the same time last year, Lloyd was pedestrian, Welker was Welker, and Brady was still absolute dynamite. Now you have the early-season possibility of neither Gronk nor Hern being available (but Jake Ballard is no slouch), Welker replaced by Amendola (an arguably superior player), and a whole host of rookies and FAs being asked to replicate the production of... Brandon Lloyd.
It's probably foolish to expect any improvement from Tom Brady, but these people predicting his absolute demise don't seem to ever get tired of the Patriots proving them wrong.
What has really happened here? Gronk and Hernandez were never healthy at the same time last year, Lloyd was pedestrian, Welker was Welker, and Brady was still absolute dynamite. Now you have the early-season possibility of neither Gronk nor Hern being available (but Jake Ballard is no slouch), Welker replaced by Amendola (an arguably superior player), and a whole host of rookies and FAs being asked to replicate the production of... Brandon Lloyd.
It's probably foolish to expect any improvement from Tom Brady, but these people predicting his absolute demise don't seem to ever get tired of the Patriots proving them wrong.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Don't sell Jake Ballard short, he's a tremendous slouch.
Jercules said:
But the uptick has lasted all the way until the present day, whereas Moss was traded midseason in 2010 and International Superstar Ben Watson is long gone. Welker was nothing before he got to NE (like Michael Jenkins, or Donald Jones), and the Patriots have found an excellent replacement. This is like fretting over Adrian Peterson if he lost his starting guards or something.
moleculo
Footballguy
as you know, Moss/Watson were replaced with Gronk/Hernandez a few years ago - also elite receiving options, just a different style. Brady was a good QB before these guys got there, and he will be a good QB without his stars. He just won't be a top 3 guy.
There is no shame in being in the QB6-QB12 range - that's what this thread is about. A QB6-QB12 range would put Brady in the 6th or 7th round, as opposed to the mid 4th where he has been for the past couple of months.
All I'm saying is that if you are going to note that Brady's stats became elite when coincidentally, he had elite receivers, it's fair to question if he can remain elite when the elite receivers are no longer in NE.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
I think most people, at least those who actually watch the games, realize this. But having a whole new receiving corps and problems at the TE position are concerns when it comes to thinking Brady can be a top 3 FF again this year. And like I said earlier, when you consider deep QBs are in FF this year, I would rather get a cheap QB than overspend on Brady and hope everything pans out just right for him to end up being worth his price. He'll still throw for good yards and 30+ TDs, but no way would I touch him for $35+ in auctions this year.
moleculo
Footballguy
Lol@ Watson, but before 2007, Brady was a much better NFL QB than a fantasy QB. Strictly in terms of fantasy football, Brady was not considered elite prior to the arrival of Moss/Welker (McDaniels as well?)
HurryUpSundays
Footballguy
I loathe Tom Brady. I hope he has an awful year, and If Gronk/Hernandez are not a part of that offense, that becomes much more likely (numbers wise). But. I wouldn't bet against the guy. He and that staff will find a way.
Faust
MVP
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T with T
Footballguy
well you got your wish Hernandez bye bye im surprised no one mentioned that hmm weird... Brady looks to have a bad year in comparison to other guys goin around adp...
karmarooster
Footballguy
Brady at QB3 is fantasy football guru malpractice. I've yet to hear a compelling argument for Brady as a borderline top 5 QB this year other than "He's Tom Brady, what more do you want?" 
My issue with the Harris article above concerns this statement:
The other reason is that it was their 2-TE set that allowed them to run a super-high paced offense that put them in the top 5 in both rushes and passes. If the defense countered with a nickel, Brady and Co. would run it, and run it, and run it again trapping the defense in the formation until they called a time out or something else allowed a substitution. Or, when in the 2-TE set and the defense lined up in 4-3/3-4, they would throw it, and throw it, and throw it again keeping the defense trapped.
They won't have that luxury in 2013, so the extent to which they run an Oregon-style offense is severely limited. They weren't just going fast for the sake of it, but were doing it because it kept them in an advantageous position. Running 1164 offensive snaps is just not possible with Amendola, Edelman, Gronk for 2/3rds the season, and whatever else they put out there. There's not really a point to running a ton of plays unless you have an advantage over the defense. This is why, for example, the Jags can't run 1100+ plays, and even if they tried, it would completely blow up - it would just result in the fastest 3-and-outs you've ever seen. (not saying that Pats = Jags, just for illustration).
So basically every article you read in mid-July is going to lack in specifics, and basically come down "well, he's been pretty good! That's got to count for something!" For me to trust Brady as a potential top 5 QB, I'm going to need REAL evidence that looks something like this, and it probably won't happen until late in the pre-season (if at all):
(1) Gronk is looking good, playing in pads with contact. He looks to be ready to go week 1 or 2.
(2) Amendola really gets it and is healthy and Brady is targeting him a ton
(3) Vereen looks like a revelation as a hybrid WR/RB and a dangerous weapon every time he touches the ball
(4) At least one of the rookies or other skill players has a nice showing and looks legit (this is a big concern given the Pats record for drafting stinker WRs. Consider that the last good WR they drafted was Deion Branch.)
ALL of those are going to need to be obvious by late August. Otherwise, it's just hope.
My issue with the Harris article above concerns this statement:New England doesn't need to run it more to reduce Brady's value - they just need to throw it less. He's correct that 2012 500+ rushing attempts probably can't get much higher (2nd in the league)... but 2012's 600+ passing attempts can certainly come down. The obvious reason is that NE looks to be missing every decent target from last year on opening day (Amendola and potentially Vereen notwithstanding).
The other reason is that it was their 2-TE set that allowed them to run a super-high paced offense that put them in the top 5 in both rushes and passes. If the defense countered with a nickel, Brady and Co. would run it, and run it, and run it again trapping the defense in the formation until they called a time out or something else allowed a substitution. Or, when in the 2-TE set and the defense lined up in 4-3/3-4, they would throw it, and throw it, and throw it again keeping the defense trapped.
They won't have that luxury in 2013, so the extent to which they run an Oregon-style offense is severely limited. They weren't just going fast for the sake of it, but were doing it because it kept them in an advantageous position. Running 1164 offensive snaps is just not possible with Amendola, Edelman, Gronk for 2/3rds the season, and whatever else they put out there. There's not really a point to running a ton of plays unless you have an advantage over the defense. This is why, for example, the Jags can't run 1100+ plays, and even if they tried, it would completely blow up - it would just result in the fastest 3-and-outs you've ever seen. (not saying that Pats = Jags, just for illustration).
So basically every article you read in mid-July is going to lack in specifics, and basically come down "well, he's been pretty good! That's got to count for something!" For me to trust Brady as a potential top 5 QB, I'm going to need REAL evidence that looks something like this, and it probably won't happen until late in the pre-season (if at all):
(1) Gronk is looking good, playing in pads with contact. He looks to be ready to go week 1 or 2.
(2) Amendola really gets it and is healthy and Brady is targeting him a ton
(3) Vereen looks like a revelation as a hybrid WR/RB and a dangerous weapon every time he touches the ball
(4) At least one of the rookies or other skill players has a nice showing and looks legit (this is a big concern given the Pats record for drafting stinker WRs. Consider that the last good WR they drafted was Deion Branch.)
ALL of those are going to need to be obvious by late August. Otherwise, it's just hope.
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Phlash
Footballguy
Passing yardage league wide has gone up since 2005 as well. Brady was #2 in the league with what was mostly an average group. Frankly, I like the guys they have this year more, by a good margin. Gronkowski is worlds better than Ben or Daniel Graham, and the WRs are fairly comparable in talent and skill. The RB situation is much better for the Patriots this year, and it's possible they'll be more of a rushing attack. Still, Brady has had pretty bad weapons and produced before, so it's not like he can't get the most out of the current receivers. He also has more experience so he might be able to get them going faster than before, a-la Peyton did this year.
karmarooster
Footballguy
AngryPatriot
Footballguy
uh... yeah, I'm rolling with Brady as a QB1. He makes wr's- not the other way round.
Warrior
Footballguy
msudaisy26
Footballguy
He will finish top 5 as usual
AngryPatriot
Footballguy
Didn't mean to be unclear... I have him in all 3 leagues, he'll be top 4 in the league at the least, close to the #1 QB in the league, probably #1 in some categories. Tom Brady is greatness.So you're betting on him being at least QB12? Shaky limb to go out on
karmarooster
Footballguy
Crazysight
Footballguy
"Bust alert": Prepare to see Brady's bust on display in the NFL Hall of fame.
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Over/Under 1.5 regular season games before Brady himself makes this thread obsolete.
Run It Up
Footballguy
My opinion is that this year's team will be better than last year's team despite the youth at WR. While you never want to lose a talent like AH, fact is that he really couldn't be trusted to stay healthy all year. By cutting him, the team was forced to focus more on the receiver position than they have had to the last few years. They took shots on guys and whiffed miserably. However, I also think that McDaniels adds something...those whiffs were mostly when he wasn't in NE.
Vereen plays Kevin Faulk's role and you have a nice 1-2 combo between Ridley and Blount. Amendola looks to have a huge year and the TEs not named Gronk look impressive. Zudfield, Hooman, Ballard and Fells provides them with great depth at a position that has become a huge part of their offense. Getting Gronk back is icing on the cake. Brady looks extremely focused and dedicated this offseason. I wouldn't sleep on any Pats players this year. Chances are, others in your league(s) will due to the offseason issues and chatter about the lack of WRs.
Vereen plays Kevin Faulk's role and you have a nice 1-2 combo between Ridley and Blount. Amendola looks to have a huge year and the TEs not named Gronk look impressive. Zudfield, Hooman, Ballard and Fells provides them with great depth at a position that has become a huge part of their offense. Getting Gronk back is icing on the cake. Brady looks extremely focused and dedicated this offseason. I wouldn't sleep on any Pats players this year. Chances are, others in your league(s) will due to the offseason issues and chatter about the lack of WRs.
Phenix
Footballguy
Sabertooth
Footballguy
He's the best at his position but it is so devalued it doesn't matter. I'd say if given a choice of players in the NFC North, Peterson would be the third one picked. Maybe fourth.
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