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Official Tom Brady - bust alert (in 2013)


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It's early,and a lot of good news and bad news can come up between now and week 1. But "what if" Gronk's back surgery keeps him out for a prolonged period of time,and "what if" Hernandez is in some deep crap in his personal life(as recent reports suggest). I know Brady is an elite QB,but what do his owners think of Amendola(if HE can stay healthy),Dobson,Ballard and Fells as his primary targets? Brady's still going to put up good numbers,but how far down the "elite" list does he drop if the "what if's " happen?

Well, besides Ballard and Fells, and the other promising WR's, UFA TE Zach Sudfeld has shined in the OTA's. He's another Gronk size guy. 6' 7, 255 and athletic. There will also be plenty of free agents available one the rosters start getting cut, so I think Brady will be fine.

Eta - The bolded really needs to stop.

Not saying Brady won't be "fine". From a fantasy standpoint how far do you drop him if his receiving corps is made up of UFA ,FA's and other teams cast-offs?

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In fairness to Brady, he moved to a team that has a much weaker cheating infrastructure than what he's grown accustomed to.  

Overrated fraud IMO. Won some SBs because his coach is a cheater. Lacks ideal size for the position. Slow and lacks arm strength. Not exceptionally bright; skates by on the basis of his good looks and

I nominate "Rat of Decline" as our new moniker for Tom Brady.

It's early,and a lot of good news and bad news can come up between now and week 1. But "what if" Gronk's back surgery keeps him out for a prolonged period of time,and "what if" Hernandez is in some deep crap in his personal life(as recent reports suggest). I know Brady is an elite QB,but what do his owners think of Amendola(if HE can stay healthy),Dobson,Ballard and Fells as his primary targets? Brady's still going to put up good numbers,but how far down the "elite" list does he drop if the "what if's " happen?

Well, besides Ballard and Fells, and the other promising WR's, UFA TE Zach Sudfeld has shined in the OTA's. He's another Gronk size guy. 6' 7, 255 and athletic. There will also be plenty of free agents available one the rosters start getting cut, so I think Brady will be fine.

Eta - The bolded really needs to stop.

Not saying Brady won't be "fine". From a fantasy standpoint how far do you drop him if his receiving corps is made up of UFA ,FA's and other teams cast-offs?

Considering his O-line and how often he throws the ball, not much at all. Vareen was probably going to see an increase this year, and Amendola should have an exceptional year as well. I guess it comes down to who would you draft ahead of him?

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It's early,and a lot of good news and bad news can come up between now and week 1. But "what if" Gronk's back surgery keeps him out for a prolonged period of time,and "what if" Hernandez is in some deep crap in his personal life(as recent reports suggest). I know Brady is an elite QB,but what do his owners think of Amendola(if HE can stay healthy),Dobson,Ballard and Fells as his primary targets? Brady's still going to put up good numbers,but how far down the "elite" list does he drop if the "what if's " happen?

Well, besides Ballard and Fells, and the other promising WR's, UFA TE Zach Sudfeld has shined in the OTA's. He's another Gronk size guy. 6' 7, 255 and athletic. There will also be plenty of free agents available one the rosters start getting cut, so I think Brady will be fine.

Eta - The bolded really needs to stop.

Not saying Brady won't be "fine". From a fantasy standpoint how far do you drop him if his receiving corps is made up of UFA ,FA's and other teams cast-offs?

Considering his O-line and how often he throws the ball, not much at all. Vareen was probably going to see an increase this year, and Amendola should have an exceptional year as well. I guess it comes down to who would you draft ahead of him?

Given the current rosters(and I know there's a long way to week1) I'd put Brady 6th at best behind Rogers,Brees,P.Manning,Newton and Ryan. :2cents:

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It's early,and a lot of good news and bad news can come up between now and week 1. But "what if" Gronk's back surgery keeps him out for a prolonged period of time,and "what if" Hernandez is in some deep crap in his personal life(as recent reports suggest). I know Brady is an elite QB,but what do his owners think of Amendola(if HE can stay healthy),Dobson,Ballard and Fells as his primary targets? Brady's still going to put up good numbers,but how far down the "elite" list does he drop if the "what if's " happen?

Well, besides Ballard and Fells, and the other promising WR's, UFA TE Zach Sudfeld has shined in the OTA's. He's another Gronk size guy. 6' 7, 255 and athletic. There will also be plenty of free agents available one the rosters start getting cut, so I think Brady will be fine.

Eta - The bolded really needs to stop.

Not saying Brady won't be "fine". From a fantasy standpoint how far do you drop him if his receiving corps is made up of UFA ,FA's and other teams cast-offs?

Considering his O-line and how often he throws the ball, not much at all. Vareen was probably going to see an increase this year, and Amendola should have an exceptional year as well. I guess it comes down to who would you draft ahead of him?

Given the current rosters(and I know there's a long way to week1) I'd put Brady 6th at best behind Rogers,Brees,P.Manning,Newton and Ryan. :2cents:

That's not a big drop. Though I'm not so sure about Newton.

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It's early,and a lot of good news and bad news can come up between now and week 1. But "what if" Gronk's back surgery keeps him out for a prolonged period of time,and "what if" Hernandez is in some deep crap in his personal life(as recent reports suggest). I know Brady is an elite QB,but what do his owners think of Amendola(if HE can stay healthy),Dobson,Ballard and Fells as his primary targets? Brady's still going to put up good numbers,but how far down the "elite" list does he drop if the "what if's " happen?

Well, besides Ballard and Fells, and the other promising WR's, UFA TE Zach Sudfeld has shined in the OTA's. He's another Gronk size guy. 6' 7, 255 and athletic. There will also be plenty of free agents available one the rosters start getting cut, so I think Brady will be fine.

Eta - The bolded really needs to stop.

Not saying Brady won't be "fine". From a fantasy standpoint how far do you drop him if his receiving corps is made up of UFA ,FA's and other teams cast-offs?

Considering his O-line and how often he throws the ball, not much at all. Vareen was probably going to see an increase this year, and Amendola should have an exceptional year as well. I guess it comes down to who would you draft ahead of him?

Given the current rosters(and I know there's a long way to week1) I'd put Brady 6th at best behind Rogers,Brees,P.Manning,Newton and Ryan. :2cents:

That's not a big drop. Though I'm not so sure about Newton.

I give Newton an edge on him because of the rushing yards and TD's. Obviously he isn't the passer Brady is. Given current ADP's Ryan is a better value who can post similiar or better numbers than Brady given the state of the teams current rosters. A lot can change for sure,Gronk can come back healthy for week 1 and Hernandez will be o.k. to play,that would bump Brady back up for sure to at least #4,.maybe 3 imo.

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It's early,and a lot of good news and bad news can come up between now and week 1. But "what if" Gronk's back surgery keeps him out for a prolonged period of time,and "what if" Hernandez is in some deep crap in his personal life(as recent reports suggest). I know Brady is an elite QB,but what do his owners think of Amendola(if HE can stay healthy),Dobson,Ballard and Fells as his primary targets? Brady's still going to put up good numbers,but how far down the "elite" list does he drop if the "what if's " happen?

Well, besides Ballard and Fells, and the other promising WR's, UFA TE Zach Sudfeld has shined in the OTA's. He's another Gronk size guy. 6' 7, 255 and athletic. There will also be plenty of free agents available one the rosters start getting cut, so I think Brady will be fine.

Eta - The bolded really needs to stop.

Not saying Brady won't be "fine". From a fantasy standpoint how far do you drop him if his receiving corps is made up of UFA ,FA's and other teams cast-offs?

I believe it was 2005 but Brady finished 2nd in fantasy scoring for quarterbacks and his receivers were Troy Brown, David Givens, and Deion Branch. His tight ends were Ben Watson and Daniel Graham. He will be fine

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Brady is certainly not 1st on my list of must have QBs but if he did drop a couple rounds that would make him a lot more appealing. Imagine Hernandez and Gronk both out week 1. The pats should seriously think about bringing Lloyd back into the cuts. They need something at WR or TE to stop the bleeding. That said I believe the RBs will be showcased and Brady will just throw short passes there plus Amendola and they still continue to move the sticks.

Imagine because of all this Brady does have a down year, the next conversation by the media will be whether Brady should hang 'em up. It's coming, you watch.

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Brady is certainly not 1st on my list of must have QBs but if he did drop a couple rounds that would make him a lot more appealing. Imagine Hernandez and Gronk both out week 1. The pats should seriously think about bringing Lloyd back into the cuts. They need something at WR or TE to stop the bleeding. That said I believe the RBs will be showcased and Brady will just throw short passes there plus Amendola and they still continue to move the sticks.

Imagine because of all this Brady does have a down year, the next conversation by the media will be whether Brady should hang 'em up. It's coming, you watch.

The media won't have time. If he has a bad first half in week 1 all the haters here will say I told you so and bring on Mallett

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Brady is certainly not 1st on my list of must have QBs but if he did drop a couple rounds that would make him a lot more appealing. Imagine Hernandez and Gronk both out week 1. The pats should seriously think about bringing Lloyd back into the cuts. They need something at WR or TE to stop the bleeding. That said I believe the RBs will be showcased and Brady will just throw short passes there plus Amendola and they still continue to move the sticks.

Imagine because of all this Brady does have a down year, the next conversation by the media will be whether Brady should hang 'em up. It's coming, you watch.

The media won't have time. If he has a bad first half in week 1 all the haters here will say I told you so and bring on Mallett

you really think Mallett will be the guy they will be wanting to see?

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You don't keep the best player in the NFL on the bench. Period.

Yes, Adrian Peterson will get plenty of playing time this season.

Not even the best player in his own division.

:confused: I'm sorry. What's the suggestion here?

My guess is that he will say that Aaron Rodgers is the best player in that division. But that is splitting hairs since Rodgers and Peterson are arguably THE two best players in the league (1a and 1b), so dismissing either as "not the best player in their division" is rather silly.

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Brady is certainly not 1st on my list of must have QBs but if he did drop a couple rounds that would make him a lot more appealing. Imagine Hernandez and Gronk both out week 1. The pats should seriously think about bringing Lloyd back into the cuts. They need something at WR or TE to stop the bleeding. That said I believe the RBs will be showcased and Brady will just throw short passes there plus Amendola and they still continue to move the sticks.

Imagine because of all this Brady does have a down year, the next conversation by the media will be whether Brady should hang 'em up. It's coming, you watch.

The media won't have time. If he has a bad first half in week 1 all the haters here will say I told you so and bring on Mallett

you really think Mallett will be the guy they will be wanting to see?

Good point

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I believe it was 2005 but Brady finished 2nd in fantasy scoring for quarterbacks and his receivers were Troy Brown, David Givens, and Deion Branch. His tight ends were Ben Watson and Daniel Graham. He will be fine

Brady scored as many points in 2005 as Andy Dalton did last year. And at least for now, the '05 Patriots supporting cast looks better than what NE will trot out in 2013.

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I believe it was 2005 but Brady finished 2nd in fantasy scoring for quarterbacks and his receivers were Troy Brown, David Givens, and Deion Branch. His tight ends were Ben Watson and Daniel Graham. He will be fine

Brady scored as many points in 2005 as Andy Dalton did last year. And at least for now, the '05 Patriots supporting cast looks better than what NE will trot out in 2013.

Except the average team put up 3255 and 20 passing in 2005 and 3700 and 24 in 2012. Clearly the game has changed to even more of a passing league today than it was 8 years ago.

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The Tom Brady of 2005 is not the Tom Brady of today. He emerged as a weekly QB juggernaut in 2007 and never looked back, and 'real' football opinions are uniformly flattering. The guy is a first-ballot HOFamer, perhaps the GOAT, and can stand a little shake up to his receiving core.

What has really happened here? Gronk and Hernandez were never healthy at the same time last year, Lloyd was pedestrian, Welker was Welker, and Brady was still absolute dynamite. Now you have the early-season possibility of neither Gronk nor Hern being available (but Jake Ballard is no slouch), Welker replaced by Amendola (an arguably superior player), and a whole host of rookies and FAs being asked to replicate the production of... Brandon Lloyd.

It's probably foolish to expect any improvement from Tom Brady, but these people predicting his absolute demise don't seem to ever get tired of the Patriots proving them wrong.

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The Tom Brady of 2005 is not the Tom Brady of today. He emerged as a weekly QB juggernaut in 2007 and never looked back, and 'real' football opinions are uniformly flattering. The guy is a first-ballot HOFamer, perhaps the GOAT, and can stand a little shake up to his receiving core.

...

hmm...I wonder if the Patriots made any changes to their passing game in 2007 that corresponds w/ Brady's uptick?

hint: 2006 receiving leaders: Reche Caldwell, Ben Watson. 2007 receiving leaders: Wes Welker, Randy Moss.

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The Tom Brady of 2005 is not the Tom Brady of today. He emerged as a weekly QB juggernaut in 2007 and never looked back, and 'real' football opinions are uniformly flattering. The guy is a first-ballot HOFamer, perhaps the GOAT, and can stand a little shake up to his receiving core.

...

hmm...I wonder if the Patriots made any changes to their passing game in 2007 that corresponds w/ Brady's uptick?

hint: 2006 receiving leaders: Reche Caldwell, Ben Watson. 2007 receiving leaders: Wes Welker, Randy Moss.

But the uptick has lasted all the way until the present day, whereas Moss was traded midseason in 2010 and International Superstar Ben Watson is long gone. Welker was nothing before he got to NE (like Michael Jenkins, or Donald Jones), and the Patriots have found an excellent replacement. This is like fretting over Adrian Peterson if he lost his starting guards or something.

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The Tom Brady of 2005 is not the Tom Brady of today. He emerged as a weekly QB juggernaut in 2007 and never looked back, and 'real' football opinions are uniformly flattering. The guy is a first-ballot HOFamer, perhaps the GOAT, and can stand a little shake up to his receiving core.

...

hmm...I wonder if the Patriots made any changes to their passing game in 2007 that corresponds w/ Brady's uptick?

hint: 2006 receiving leaders: Reche Caldwell, Ben Watson. 2007 receiving leaders: Wes Welker, Randy Moss.

But the uptick has lasted all the way until the present day, whereas Moss was traded midseason in 2010 and International Superstar Ben Watson is long gone. Welker was nothing before he got to NE (like Michael Jenkins, or Donald Jones), and the Patriots have found an excellent replacement. This is like fretting over Adrian Peterson if he lost his starting guards or something.

as you know, Moss/Watson were replaced with Gronk/Hernandez a few years ago - also elite receiving options, just a different style. Brady was a good QB before these guys got there, and he will be a good QB without his stars. He just won't be a top 3 guy.

There is no shame in being in the QB6-QB12 range - that's what this thread is about. A QB6-QB12 range would put Brady in the 6th or 7th round, as opposed to the mid 4th where he has been for the past couple of months.

All I'm saying is that if you are going to note that Brady's stats became elite when coincidentally, he had elite receivers, it's fair to question if he can remain elite when the elite receivers are no longer in NE.

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Put me in the group that thinks Tom Brady makes his receivers and not the other way around.

I think most people, at least those who actually watch the games, realize this. But having a whole new receiving corps and problems at the TE position are concerns when it comes to thinking Brady can be a top 3 FF again this year. And like I said earlier, when you consider deep QBs are in FF this year, I would rather get a cheap QB than overspend on Brady and hope everything pans out just right for him to end up being worth his price. He'll still throw for good yards and 30+ TDs, but no way would I touch him for $35+ in auctions this year.

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The Tom Brady of 2005 is not the Tom Brady of today. He emerged as a weekly QB juggernaut in 2007 and never looked back, and 'real' football opinions are uniformly flattering. The guy is a first-ballot HOFamer, perhaps the GOAT, and can stand a little shake up to his receiving core.

...

hmm...I wonder if the Patriots made any changes to their passing game in 2007 that corresponds w/ Brady's uptick?

hint: 2006 receiving leaders: Reche Caldwell, Ben Watson. 2007 receiving leaders: Wes Welker, Randy Moss.

But the uptick has lasted all the way until the present day, whereas Moss was traded midseason in 2010 and International Superstar Ben Watson is long gone. Welker was nothing before he got to NE (like Michael Jenkins, or Donald Jones), and the Patriots have found an excellent replacement. This is like fretting over Adrian Peterson if he lost his starting guards or something.

as you know, Moss/Watson were replaced with Gronk/Hernandez a few years ago - also elite receiving options, just a different style. Brady was a good QB before these guys got there, and he will be a good QB without his stars. He just won't be a top 3 guy.

There is no shame in being in the QB6-QB12 range - that's what this thread is about. A QB6-QB12 range would put Brady in the 6th or 7th round, as opposed to the mid 4th where he has been for the past couple of months.

All I'm saying is that if you are going to note that Brady's stats became elite when coincidentally, he had elite receivers, it's fair to question if he can remain elite when the elite receivers are no longer in NE.

You just called Tom Brady a 'good QB' and Ben Watson an 'elite receiver'.

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The Tom Brady of 2005 is not the Tom Brady of today. He emerged as a weekly QB juggernaut in 2007 and never looked back, and 'real' football opinions are uniformly flattering. The guy is a first-ballot HOFamer, perhaps the GOAT, and can stand a little shake up to his receiving core.

...

hmm...I wonder if the Patriots made any changes to their passing game in 2007 that corresponds w/ Brady's uptick?

hint: 2006 receiving leaders: Reche Caldwell, Ben Watson. 2007 receiving leaders: Wes Welker, Randy Moss.

But the uptick has lasted all the way until the present day, whereas Moss was traded midseason in 2010 and International Superstar Ben Watson is long gone. Welker was nothing before he got to NE (like Michael Jenkins, or Donald Jones), and the Patriots have found an excellent replacement. This is like fretting over Adrian Peterson if he lost his starting guards or something.

as you know, Moss/Watson were replaced with Gronk/Hernandez a few years ago - also elite receiving options, just a different style. Brady was a good QB before these guys got there, and he will be a good QB without his stars. He just won't be a top 3 guy.

There is no shame in being in the QB6-QB12 range - that's what this thread is about. A QB6-QB12 range would put Brady in the 6th or 7th round, as opposed to the mid 4th where he has been for the past couple of months.

All I'm saying is that if you are going to note that Brady's stats became elite when coincidentally, he had elite receivers, it's fair to question if he can remain elite when the elite receivers are no longer in NE.

You just called Tom Brady a 'good QB' and Ben Watson an 'elite receiver'.

Lol@ Watson, but before 2007, Brady was a much better NFL QB than a fantasy QB. Strictly in terms of fantasy football, Brady was not considered elite prior to the arrival of Moss/Welker (McDaniels as well?)
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  • 4 weeks later...

Time to reconsider Brady?

By Christopher Harris | ESPN.com

Should Tom Brady's fantasy value be dramatically reassessed?

I've always thought the expression "blind faith" was redundant. It seems to me that the moment faith isn't blind -- the moment we can see proof -- it stops being faith. In politics, in religion, in relationships and, yes, in sports, to believe without tangible evidence is by definition a faith act. You choose to accept, and a mountain of contraindications won't sway you.

Perhaps that's where I am with Tom Brady. I continue to contend that Brady deserves to be considered an ultra-elite NFL signal-caller and a top-three fantasy QB, despite an incredibly bad offseason for the New England Patriots.

I'll discuss the reasons for my faith in a moment. But first, let's summarize Brady's potential problems. In 2012, he had 401 completions for 4,827 yards and 34 TDs. The receivers he lost this offseason (primarily Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd, Aaron Hernandez and Danny Woodhead) accounted for 310 catches, 3,608 yards and 19 TDs. That's incredible. Of the 654 standard ESPN fantasy points Brady produced for his pass-catchers on passing plays alone, 429 of them (that's almost exactly two-thirds) were scored by men who won't play for the Pats this year. Between free-agent defections, criminal charges and decisions not to renew contracts, New England has to replace about two-thirds of its receiving firepower in a single offseason.

And how will they do so? They'll hope Danny Amendola, a talented player who has missed 20 of his past 32 NFL games because of injury, can assume their top wide receiver job. They'll hope Rob Gronkowski is healthy enough after offseason back surgery (and four surgeries to repair his broken forearm) to contribute right away. They'll hope that Aaron Dobson is ready to become the first Patriots rookie wideout to become a meaningful contributor in the Brady Era. (Deion Branch was the most successful first-year wideout Brady ever had, and in '02 he caught 43 passes for 489 yards and two TDs.) They'll hope that Julian Edelman will stay healthy for the first time in his five-year NFL career, and that Jake Ballard will return after an ACL-induced year off.

Is it still possible that the Pats could pull a free-agent rabbit out of their hat? Well, they could re-sign the 32-year-old Lloyd, but currently seem uninterested in doing so. (A few training-camp weeks of drops could change their mind.) A reunion with Randy Moss certainly isn't happening. Maybe Laurent Robinson, Brandon Stokley or Steve Breaston? Robinson and Stokley could be options, but they're both so concussion-prone that they'd be hard to count on; Breaston has battled knee troubles for a couple of seasons. Maybe Branch? (Yuck.) In other words, the solution probably isn't languishing off an NFL roster. Could they trade for a free-agent-to-be such as Golden Tate or Jeremy Maclin, should those players' respective teams decide their WR depth looks good? It's possible, but considering how infrequently NFL trades of significance go down, we shouldn't count on it. So the current depth chart, which also includes Michael Jenkins, Donald Jones, Lavelle Hawkins and rookie Josh Boyce, probably will have to suffice.

Brady pessimists also will point out that during the Pats' Super Bowl years, Tom Terrific didn't produce at an elite level. In his three Super-Bowl-winning seasons, his average stat line was 19-of-31 for 220 yards, 1.5 TDs and 0.8 INTs. (Since '07, his average stat line has been 24-of-36 for 290 yards, 2.3 TDs and 0.5 INTs.) In other words, when the Pats were at their absolute best, Brady's numbers routinely looked like Ryan Fitzpatrick's. Between '01, '03 and '04, Brady had exactly one receiver with more than 57 grabs in a single year (Troy Brown had 101 in '01). David Givens, David Patten, Daniel Graham, Christian Fauria, Kevin Faulk ... these were not elite weapons, and the Patriots were a running team, ranking eighth, 12th and fifth in rush attempts in those three seasons, respectively. Finally, in those three years, Brady ranked 19th, 10th and 11th among fantasy QBs. Worry warts among us have nightmares that Brady could return to such depths.

I'm not one of them. A decade later, the NFL has changed, and so have Brady and the New England offense.

First of all, I don't envision a case where this club goes appreciably more "ground-and-pound" than they did in '12, when they were second in rush attempts and seventh in rushing yards. And rushers already have siphoned off a league-high 119 TDs from New England's high-octane passing attack since '07. When giving reasons for a potential Brady breakdown, "they're going to run it way more" doesn't persuade me.

Nor can I see this team, in today's pass-happy NFL with Bill Belichick as coach and Josh McDaniels as coordinator, taking its foot off the pedal. Even with the execrable St. Louis Rams in '11, McDaniels directed an attack that finished 16th in pass attempts despite finishing 30th and 32nd in passing yards and TDs, respectively. (You can argue some of that occurred because "they were behind all the time," but in light of McDaniels' pass-happiness as a playcaller everywhere else he has been, I'm not buying.) I believe you can draw a straight line between the emergence of McDaniels as Brady's coordinator in '06, and the redefinition of New England's offense as a monolithic passing enterprise in '07.

And remember, in the past three seasons (or: since Moss left), New England's hasn't been a downfield attack. In that span, Brady is 18th in attempts of 20-plus air yards per game, among the 32 QBs who've started at least 20 games. That's mostly been because of an emphasis on Welker, Gronkowski and Hernandez, and it doesn't imply that it has somehow been easier to accomplish because of its lack of downfield strikes; this offense obviously requires tremendous precision and chemistry. But it doesn't require great outside receivers. In other words, if Dobson is only so-so and everyone else on the outside crashes and burns, I don't think that would represent Brady's downfall. The keys are Amendola, Gronkowski, Edelman and Ballard.

That, friends, is a lot of hoping.

And I suppose here's where the faith comes in. I'm not one who believes Gronk will go on the PUP list and be unavailable until Week 7. Could he miss a game or two? It's possible. But I honestly can't believe the Patriots would've delayed his back surgery if they weren't fairly sure he'd be on pace to contribute early. That may qualify as a naïve belief, but I suppose there's that pesky faith rearing its head. Similarly, I contend that Amendola, while risky, isn't as toxic as someone like Darren McFadden or Jonathan Stewart. It's foolish to ignore his recent injury history, but he hasn't dealt with a continual series of strains and pulls: He has dislocated an elbow and his clavicle. Could that mean his skeleton is somehow incompatible with playing in the NFL? Maybe. But it doesn't take a massive leap to envision him becoming Welker Plus, a versatile slot player with more deep speed than the departed Wes. As for Edelman and Ballard? I have less faith in them, but it's important to realize that before he broke his hand in Week 3 last year, Edelman was playing ahead of Welker.

I understand the doubters. When you have to paint an involved picture to come up with a rosy ending -- if this happens, and this happens, and this happens, Brady will be fine! -- drafting that player gets scary. And when you compare Brady to someone such as Peyton Manning, who appears to have an all-world receiving corps in Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker and Welker, I understand the temptation to draft Peyton instead. (Heck, ESPN's group QB ranks have recently made just this switch.) But I believe. I see enough potential in the Patriots' inside targets that I believe Brady will scarcely miss a beat, and will repeat a season in which he outdid Manning despite a nearly flawless return by the Sheriff. (And I believe it's also naïve to look at Peyton's December '12 game film and not worry about a 37-year-old with a fused vertebrae and other bulging discs.) Anyway, while I understand that a risk-averse fantasy owner might rather choose Manning over Brady, I don't think it's any kind of no-brainer. I still have Brady at No. 3 in my ranks, and Manning at No. 5.

Of course, I freely acknowledge that such a ranking requires faith.

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I loathe Tom Brady. I hope he has an awful year, and If Gronk/Hernandez are not a part of that offense, that becomes much more likely (numbers wise). But. I wouldn't bet against the guy. He and that staff will find a way.

well you got your wish Hernandez bye bye im surprised no one mentioned that hmm weird... Brady looks to have a bad year in comparison to other guys goin around adp...

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Brady at QB3 is fantasy football guru malpractice. I've yet to hear a compelling argument for Brady as a borderline top 5 QB this year other than "He's Tom Brady, what more do you want?" :shrug: My issue with the Harris article above concerns this statement:

First of all, I don't envision a case where this club goes appreciably more "ground-and-pound" than they did in '12, when they were second in rush attempts and seventh in rushing yards. And rushers already have siphoned off a league-high 119 TDs from New England's high-octane passing attack since '07. When giving reasons for a potential Brady breakdown, "they're going to run it way more" doesn't persuade me.

New England doesn't need to run it more to reduce Brady's value - they just need to throw it less. He's correct that 2012 500+ rushing attempts probably can't get much higher (2nd in the league)... but 2012's 600+ passing attempts can certainly come down. The obvious reason is that NE looks to be missing every decent target from last year on opening day (Amendola and potentially Vereen notwithstanding).

The other reason is that it was their 2-TE set that allowed them to run a super-high paced offense that put them in the top 5 in both rushes and passes. If the defense countered with a nickel, Brady and Co. would run it, and run it, and run it again trapping the defense in the formation until they called a time out or something else allowed a substitution. Or, when in the 2-TE set and the defense lined up in 4-3/3-4, they would throw it, and throw it, and throw it again keeping the defense trapped.

They won't have that luxury in 2013, so the extent to which they run an Oregon-style offense is severely limited. They weren't just going fast for the sake of it, but were doing it because it kept them in an advantageous position. Running 1164 offensive snaps is just not possible with Amendola, Edelman, Gronk for 2/3rds the season, and whatever else they put out there. There's not really a point to running a ton of plays unless you have an advantage over the defense. This is why, for example, the Jags can't run 1100+ plays, and even if they tried, it would completely blow up - it would just result in the fastest 3-and-outs you've ever seen. (not saying that Pats = Jags, just for illustration).

So basically every article you read in mid-July is going to lack in specifics, and basically come down "well, he's been pretty good! That's got to count for something!" For me to trust Brady as a potential top 5 QB, I'm going to need REAL evidence that looks something like this, and it probably won't happen until late in the pre-season (if at all):

(1) Gronk is looking good, playing in pads with contact. He looks to be ready to go week 1 or 2.

(2) Amendola really gets it and is healthy and Brady is targeting him a ton

(3) Vereen looks like a revelation as a hybrid WR/RB and a dangerous weapon every time he touches the ball

(4) At least one of the rookies or other skill players has a nice showing and looks legit (this is a big concern given the Pats record for drafting stinker WRs. Consider that the last good WR they drafted was Deion Branch.)

ALL of those are going to need to be obvious by late August. Otherwise, it's just hope.

Edited by karmarooster
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I believe it was 2005 but Brady finished 2nd in fantasy scoring for quarterbacks and his receivers were Troy Brown, David Givens, and Deion Branch. His tight ends were Ben Watson and Daniel Graham. He will be fine

Brady scored as many points in 2005 as Andy Dalton did last year. And at least for now, the '05 Patriots supporting cast looks better than what NE will trot out in 2013.

Passing yardage league wide has gone up since 2005 as well. Brady was #2 in the league with what was mostly an average group. Frankly, I like the guys they have this year more, by a good margin. Gronkowski is worlds better than Ben or Daniel Graham, and the WRs are fairly comparable in talent and skill. The RB situation is much better for the Patriots this year, and it's possible they'll be more of a rushing attack. Still, Brady has had pretty bad weapons and produced before, so it's not like he can't get the most out of the current receivers. He also has more experience so he might be able to get them going faster than before, a-la Peyton did this year.

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For me to trust Brady as a potential top 5 QB, I'm going to need REAL evidence that looks something like this, and it probably won't happen until late in the pre-season (if at all):

(1) Gronk is looking good, playing in pads with contact. He looks to be ready to go week 1 or 2.

(2) Amendola really gets it and is healthy and Brady is targeting him a ton

(3) Vereen looks like a revelation as a hybrid WR/RB and a dangerous weapon every time he touches the ball

(4) At least one of the rookies or other skill players has a nice showing and looks legit (this is a big concern given the Pats record for drafting stinker WRs. Consider that the last good WR they drafted was Deion Branch.)

#4 = check

According to ESPN Boston, Friday's release of Donald Jones was tied at least in part to UDFA WR Kenbrell Thompkins' "strong work" at spring practices.

The Pats salvaged a $200,000 training camp reporting bonus by cutting Jones, but Thompkins practiced so well that he earned first-team reps by the end of minicamp. Reliable beat writer Mike Reiss deems Thompkins "the under-the-radar Patriots offensive player who has arguably built more momentum than any other." Worth a look in all dynasty leagues, Thompkins is also a favorite of Rookie Scouting Portfolio's Matt Waldman, who has a terrific eye for talent.
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Breer talking about how wide open the usage of players with the 1st team is right now.

Albert Breer ‏Just mentioned some numbers on @nflnetwork that I'll tweet at you now, on the Patriots' handling of the skill spots during camp .

During one 6-play 11-on-11 sequence, 6 different combos of skill players were in with Brady's first team. 15 different skill guys got reps.

During one 7-play sequence of 7-on-7s, 7 different combos of skill players ran with Brady's first team. 17 different skill guys got reps.

... Figured that'd be a good illustration of how the Patriots are mixing, matching guys with Brady, lots of different players getting reps.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Rotoworld:

Tom Brady has "feasted" on Philadelphia's defense during Patriots-Eagles joint practices this week.

CSN Philly calls the Eagles' defense "fresh meat," as Brady has dominated with "several touchdowns" and "long stretches without an incompletion." Per Eagles (not Patriots) beat writer John Gonzalez, Brady's connection with Danny Amendola had "people talking after practice." Observed Eagles cornerback Brandon Boykin, "[brady] makes all of your mistakes show, basically. There’s no room for error. He’s putting the ball on the money each and every time."
Source: CSN Philly
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uh... yeah, I'm rolling with Brady as a QB1. He makes wr's- not the other way round.

So you're betting on him being at least QB12? Shaky limb to go out on :rolleyes:

Didn't mean to be unclear... I have him in all 3 leagues, he'll be top 4 in the league at the least, close to the #1 QB in the league, probably #1 in some categories. Tom Brady is greatness.

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For me to trust Brady as a potential top 5 QB, I'm going to need REAL evidence that looks something like this, and it probably won't happen until late in the pre-season (if at all):

(1) Gronk is looking good, playing in pads with contact. He looks to be ready to go week 1 or 2.

(2) Amendola really gets it and is healthy and Brady is targeting him a ton

(3) Vereen looks like a revelation as a hybrid WR/RB and a dangerous weapon every time he touches the ball

(4) At least one of the rookies or other skill players has a nice showing and looks legit (this is a big concern given the Pats record for drafting stinker WRs. Consider that the last good WR they drafted was Deion Branch.)

All of these are looking good..... except for #1 (so far).

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My opinion is that this year's team will be better than last year's team despite the youth at WR. While you never want to lose a talent like AH, fact is that he really couldn't be trusted to stay healthy all year. By cutting him, the team was forced to focus more on the receiver position than they have had to the last few years. They took shots on guys and whiffed miserably. However, I also think that McDaniels adds something...those whiffs were mostly when he wasn't in NE.

Vereen plays Kevin Faulk's role and you have a nice 1-2 combo between Ridley and Blount. Amendola looks to have a huge year and the TEs not named Gronk look impressive. Zudfield, Hooman, Ballard and Fells provides them with great depth at a position that has become a huge part of their offense. Getting Gronk back is icing on the cake. Brady looks extremely focused and dedicated this offseason. I wouldn't sleep on any Pats players this year. Chances are, others in your league(s) will due to the offseason issues and chatter about the lack of WRs.

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You don't keep the best player in the NFL on the bench. Period.

Yes, Adrian Peterson will get plenty of playing time this season.

Not even the best player in his own division.

You are right, he is the best player in the NFL.

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You don't keep the best player in the NFL on the bench. Period.

Yes, Adrian Peterson will get plenty of playing time this season.

Not even the best player in his own division.

You are right, he is the best player in the NFL.

He's the best at his position but it is so devalued it doesn't matter. I'd say if given a choice of players in the NFC North, Peterson would be the third one picked. Maybe fourth.

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  • ComfortablyNumb changed the title to Official Tom Brady - bust alert (in 2013)

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