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Post Your Tidbit of Fantasy Advice - Draft Strategy (1 Viewer)

M

mbuehner

Footballguy
Alright I'm trying something new here. Post your single favorite tidbit, truism, idea, or theory that you live by. It can be a general principle, or hyper specific. Doesn't have to be the most important point, just something you think is interesting other people might not have thought about.

Focus on Draft Strategy (if anybody likes this maybe we'll address other areas in another thread).

Here's mine:

Stockpiled draft picks make most owners bad drafters. There is something about an embarrassment of wealth on draft day that makes most owners goofy. I've noticed this many times- the guy that collected six picks in the first three rounds ends up flubbing many or most of them. I figure all the cushion the picks give is a green light to get fancy and show off how smart you are, instead of sticking to VBD principals. Knowing this can help in two ways- if you collect a lot of picks, be cognoscente of it and work hard to have a tight draft. Otoh, if there are collectors in your draft, spend time mocking out how they might go off the reservation to your benefit.

Anybody else wanna take a stab?

 
If you trust your projections and there's a guy you like, draft him when you think it's a decent value. Don't wait the extra round or two to try to get him cheaper.

 
I've always redrafted snake draft and we always have pretty short timers. 1:00 usually.

I've learned to always expect the guy I'm targeting with my next pick to get snatched right before my pick. So, I now always have 3 guys in mind.

Sounds simple enough, but I used to not plan as far ahead with my focus on my draft spreadsheet, and I'd pick someone in a panic and hate it.

 
Always troll for homers. Wear the local team's hat/jersey to the draft and watch them take those guys a round or two early. Meanwhile you get a step up on the best of the rest.

 
Once you get past the first few rounds all bets are off. Don't assume you can wait a round to milk some more value. I have been paid poorly in value dollars at the end of the season but when I win outright I typically get cash handed over to me which is just as good as money.

 
A strategy that has worked very well for me over the years is to make sure and get at least one stud receiver (Calvin, AJ Green, Julio, etc), a PPR beast (antonio brown, garcon last year, etc) and a boom bust deep threat receiver (desean jackson, rowdy riley, emmanuel sanders).

 
Im going to go again-

Committees arent just for QBs and defenses. Consider drafting a WR3 or TE committee based on expected matchups, but be quick in FA to make adjustments.

 
Some people disagree with me but I make a point to avoid drafting skill position starters from the same team except for QB-WR and QB-TE. Now I don't seek those combos out, but I absolutely avoid putting myself in the position where I plan on starting QB-RB, RB-RB, RB-WR, WR-WR, and WR-TE from the same team most weeks.

 
If you tier players, really tier players. If one of your tiers is 10 players deep, dig into it and weed out the guys who'll actually give you second thoughts on draft day.

 
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You can't win your draft in the first few rounds, but you can use that time to get way more than your fair share of the beer, because everyone else's attention is on football or whatever.

 
Draft the best players. There's only a handful of players that really make a difference at the end of the year. Last year you had Josh Gordon, Peyton Manning, Jimmy Graham, if you had 2 or 3 of those guys you probably killed your league most weeks no matter what you rolled in the other tray.

 
I usually don't pick a Kicker during the draft. I'll wait until the first Sunday morning to drop a player and add my kicker for that week.

 
Choose your spots to gamble wisely. I usually take high floor lower ceiling guys in the first two rounds, then swing for the fences in the third, if the pick is the right risk/ upside. Track every team and it will help you guess who's going where and how the tiers deplete. If there's a run on a tier, be prepared to empty another tier and arm yourself with trade bait.

 
Select the players that will score the most points.

...

also... don't be afraid to "punt" a position. For me, this season, it's been RB. I have loaded up at WR, TE and made sure I had a very good QB. Grabbed a bunch of late-mid round RBs that have "PPR upside"... guys like Woodhead, Fred Jackson, Freeman. Guys that should score 8-15 points per week with their ability to catch the ball out of the backfield.

 
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Read everything you can get your hands on and listen to podcasts, until you arrive at solid opinions on all the players. Don't just draft a guy because he's highest on your cheat sheet, draft him because you did your research. You should be able to look at a name and know if you want him on your team or not, whether you're willing to reach for him, if you'll take him but only if he falls to you, etc.

Then, do tons of mock drafts, playing around with different strategies until you're comfortable with the positional values available in each round. Some years maybe you can get away with QB early because RB is deep, for example. Just keep doing mocks until you have a strategy that you like.

Lastly, after I've done all this, I try to be the guy who takes 1 second to make my picks. I'm prepared and I know who I want, so I don't have to think too much. I don't want to give my opponents any extra time to think about their next pick. Maybe a small detail but it shows confidence and might make the next guy sweat a little. Anything to gain an edge.

 
Also, an awesome thing to do if you have an auction, is to bring up a kicker every time, and if anybody bids more than a dollar for them, go, "Oh my god, I can't believe you paid more than a dollar...for a kicker!" And then, when you finally get one for a dollar, go, "STEAL!"

People will respect you for your savvy and your strategical thinking, and you won't come off like a doosh who thinks he's the first guy in the history of the universe to ever come up with this plan.

 
If you've done all the work you can, and you've spent 2 months researching, trust your projections and stay true to your board. Even when you get to a pick that doesn't make you feel good. Draft him. The draft is not the place to second guess yourself you should have done that when you were prepping your board.

 
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hotboyz said:
If you done all the work you can't spent 2 months researching trust your projections and stay true to your board. Even when you get to a pick that doesn't make you feel good. Draft him the draft is not the place to second guess yourself you should have done that when you was prepping your board.
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:confused:
 
I write the names of players, I'm not interested in, in the margins on my draft sheets.....they tend to get drafted by the guys sitting next to me.

 
Never let a qb2 run happen before drafting your qb1, especially in a large league. There is always that noob who backs up Brees with Brady and starts a panic among inexperienced owners. This is not the year to have Eli as a QB1.

 
Eulogys said:
I usually don't pick a Kicker during the draft. I'll wait until the first Sunday morning to drop a player and add my kicker for that week.
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I don't draft defense either. I save those 2 spots for handcuffs in case my guy gets hurt in preseason or some sleepers/values that I can try to use in a 2 for 1 trade with someone that isn't happy with their draft. For example, I took Ronnie Hillman and Cody Latimer. While I will likely have to drop them before week 1, Hillman was good security in case Ball didn't get back on time from the surgery. I took Latimer in case something happened with DT or Welker. It doesn't look like the Welker owner is interested in trading for him, but it was worth a shot.
 
It is often said to let the draft come to you. And I agree strongly with that sentiment. However, the best way to let the draft come to you is to do your preparation and be ready to take advantage of whatever opportunities present themselves.

I may go RB-RB or I may go WR-WR, but I'm not going to force the issue. Rather, I am ready to head either direction knowing which backs or receivers I would target in rounds 3-6 depending on which path I took.

Being fully prepared to go in multiple directions is what allows the draft to come to you.

 
Do your homework and draft your guys, but the season is won by paying attention all year, working the Waiver Wire and never giving up.

Week one is especially fertile ground for breakout WR's. Don't be afraid to drop your 15th Rd sleeper for him if the situation is right.

 
The Jerk said:
It is often said to let the draft come to you. And I agree strongly with that sentiment. However, the best way to let the draft come to you is to do your preparation and be ready to take advantage of whatever opportunities present themselves.

I may go RB-RB or I may go WR-WR, but I'm not going to force the issue. Rather, I am ready to head either direction knowing which backs or receivers I would target in rounds 3-6 depending on which path I took.

Being fully prepared to go in multiple directions is what allows the draft to come to you.
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This.

I'll add: it's okay if your team comes out a little funny looking, as long as it's set up to score a lot of points. In hindsight it might look as if you were following some clever (and perhaps offbeat) strategy, but don't lock yourself into a "strategy" beforehand.

 
Zig when others are zagging. Don't get caught at the end of a run just for the sake of taking that player. Go the opposite direction.

 
MattFancy said:
Zig when others are zagging. Don't get caught at the end of a run just for the sake of taking that player. Go the opposite direction.
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What if everyone is zagging? Should I hold be zigging? Is there ever a time to draft straight down the line?

 
Know your league.

Make a spreadsheet of how many player positions went in each round. Then take a positional ADP and apply it. This will allow you to try and find tendencies and value that are specific to your league instead of the message board consensus. It will also allow you to more accurately set your VBD baselines.

 
Don't be afraid to take the older player with lower ceiling and higher floor. A sound team is not full of "upside" guys. It only takes 2 or 3 upside guys to win a league as long as the rest of your team is solid.

 
In deeper leagues and especially best-ball leagues, don't underestimate the scoring differential of Kickers and DSTs! Pick any 3 DSTs from last year and look at their weekly scoring. Then add up the points differential from the top to bottom scoring team. I'll promise you it is more than the scoring differential of the #12 & #24 TE. We tend to disregard Ks and DSTs, but many a point is left out there on the waiver wire.

 
pizzatyme said:
In deeper leagues and especially best-ball leagues, don't underestimate the scoring differential of Kickers and DSTs! Pick any 3 DSTs from last year and look at their weekly scoring. Then add up the points differential from the top to bottom scoring team. I'll promise you it is more than the scoring differential of the #12 & #24 TE. We tend to disregard Ks and DSTs, but many a point is left out there on the waiver wire.
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The reason we ignore Ds and Ks isn't because they don't provide an advantage, but precisely BECAUSE many a point is left out there on the waiver wire. At no other position can you get such quality production off of waivers, especially if you play matchups. If you can get top-6 production for free, why would you spend a decent draft pick at the position?

 
Adam Harstad said:
pizzatyme said:
In deeper leagues and especially best-ball leagues, don't underestimate the scoring differential of Kickers and DSTs! Pick any 3 DSTs from last year and look at their weekly scoring. Then add up the points differential from the top to bottom scoring team. I'll promise you it is more than the scoring differential of the #12 & #24 TE. We tend to disregard Ks and DSTs, but many a point is left out there on the waiver wire.
Click to expand...
The reason we ignore Ds and Ks isn't because they don't provide an advantage, but precisely BECAUSE many a point is left out there on the waiver wire. At no other position can you get such quality production off of waivers, especially if you play matchups. If you can get top-6 production for free, why would you spend a decent draft pick at the position?
Click to expand...
That's why I said best ball and deeper leagues. I also never said decent draft pick. My perspective comes from Draftmasters-exclusive. I do agree that in shallow leagues, playing matchups makes perfect sense. Where possible, I'd rather house a seconf DST than a 6th WR. That's just me.

 
pizzatyme said:
Don't be afraid to take the older player with lower ceiling and higher floor. A sound team is not full of "upside" guys. It only takes 2 or 3 upside guys to win a league as long as the rest of your team is solid.
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Agreed - I remember when Fred Jackson was the prototypical low ceiling guy in all of the FootballGuys articles and he finished inside the top 10 that year.

 
Adam Harstad said:
pizzatyme said:
In deeper leagues and especially best-ball leagues, don't underestimate the scoring differential of Kickers and DSTs! Pick any 3 DSTs from last year and look at their weekly scoring. Then add up the points differential from the top to bottom scoring team. I'll promise you it is more than the scoring differential of the #12 & #24 TE. We tend to disregard Ks and DSTs, but many a point is left out there on the waiver wire.
Click to expand...
The reason we ignore Ds and Ks isn't because they don't provide an advantage, but precisely BECAUSE many a point is left out there on the waiver wire. At no other position can you get such quality production off of waivers, especially if you play matchups. If you can get top-6 production for free, why would you spend a decent draft pick at the position?
Click to expand...
It really depends on the league. If most of your leaguemates are carrying two defenses, there's slim pickings.

 
Keith R said:
Some people disagree with me but I make a point to avoid drafting skill position starters from the same team except for QB-WR and QB-TE. Now I don't seek those combos out, but I absolutely avoid putting myself in the position where I plan on starting QB-RB, RB-RB, RB-WR, WR-WR, and WR-TE from the same team most weeks.
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A quick note on this -

QB-WR combos actually make your team LESS consistent, while QB-RB or WR-RB combos actually make your team MORE consistent.

Basically the logic is that if my QB has a terrible game, so will my receiver. On the other hand, if my RB had a terrible game my QB was probably throwing a lot and had a pretty good game.

Not that I won't draft a QB/WR combo, but if I do I only really want an elite combo like Peyton/DT, Brees/Graham, Rodgers/Nelson

 
Soulfly3 said:
Draft a team of players you like, not a team of players you settled on.
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Yeah, this is a good flip side. If there's a player you don't like, and you trust your projections, it's not "good value" to take him just because someone else's projections say he should have been drafted three rounds ago.

 
Late225 said:
Adam Harstad said:
pizzatyme said:
In deeper leagues and especially best-ball leagues, don't underestimate the scoring differential of Kickers and DSTs! Pick any 3 DSTs from last year and look at their weekly scoring. Then add up the points differential from the top to bottom scoring team. I'll promise you it is more than the scoring differential of the #12 & #24 TE. We tend to disregard Ks and DSTs, but many a point is left out there on the waiver wire.
Click to expand...
The reason we ignore Ds and Ks isn't because they don't provide an advantage, but precisely BECAUSE many a point is left out there on the waiver wire. At no other position can you get such quality production off of waivers, especially if you play matchups. If you can get top-6 production for free, why would you spend a decent draft pick at the position?
Click to expand...
It really depends on the league. If most of your leaguemates are carrying two defenses, there's slim pickings.
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Sure, but unless you have abnormally large benches, those extra Defenses will be dropped as people add the new hot waiver wire guys or as byes come. In my experience it is pretty rare for teams to hold multiple Ds through the year. However, if you know that will happen in your league, be happy. It means there will be lots of good options on waivers to add at other positions.
 
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Get super patient toward the end of an auction, and always try to save yourself at least two dollars per slot to fill out your bench.

If you are any good at identifying endgame talent, the dollar values for the guys you snipe away for that extra dollar will far exceed the $2 price tag.

And more importantly, the feeling of sniping away the best remaining guys over and over and forcing a roomful of owners to grumble and #####, just because you've got a couple extra bucks to spend? Priceless.

 
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