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RB Ezekiel Elliott, NE (7 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Hankmoody
Footballguy
I'm not assuming anything yet, I'll deal with 2020 in 2020, which is exactly what he'll do too. Too much can change depending on how 2019 plays out.
kittenmittens
Footballguy
Game theory says Zeke is pretty screwed here. Looking at the possibilities that I'm aware of here, there aren't many moves he can make if withholding his services to Dallas doesn't get them to sign him.
I dont think he has an answer for "What are you gonna do, retire?"
I dont think he has an answer for "What are you gonna do, retire?"
You stated he would get his 4th accrued season in 2020 tho.You know the stuff better than me obviously. But if I've understood you correctly, he would be at best end up a restricted free agent (without playing a minimum of 6 games in 2019 or 2020) and could also get tagged and that's by playing some sort of game with the cowboys to play a single game this year.
So essentially what Steady said in the first place.
Thanks for clarifying.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
I wasn't even addressing Steady's post, I quoted someone else, but no he doesn't need to play 6 games this year as Steady said.
You know the stuff better than me obviously. But if I've understood you correctly, he would be at best end up a restricted free agent (without playing a minimum of 6 games in 2019 or 2020) and could also get tagged and that's by playing some sort of game with the cowboys to play a single game this year.
So essentially what Steady said in the first place.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
The flip side is he isn't really losing much to flex it out right now. His opportunity cost for 2019 is only what, $3.8M? And that's only if he misses them all, if he reports at any point he'll start picking up about $250k per game. And he saves a year of wear and tear on the wheels in the process. It's a LOT easier to make that up than the $14M Bell forfeited, and DAL doesn't have James Conner to plug in either.
Gee, he has to play six games either this year or next to get to unrestricted. If it's not this year he loses out on 3.85 million ( forget the single game he must play either way). Even I can figure out the smart move here.
All the single game stuff, while correct, doesnt factor in here at all.
So he signs Saturday and how many carries does he get in first game? Not enough for you to start him so you already lost one game.
abbottjamesr
Footballguy
10 carries for 65 yards and 2 tds. 3 receptions for 20 yards.
Shouldn't hurt too bad in my line up.
Bottom Line:
A- He must play a minimum of one game this year AND next year for his contract to expire and get to free agency.
B- He has to play a minimum of 6 games EITHER this year or next year to be a unrestricted free agent.
C- He’s not getting paid while he’s not playing.
I don’t think him or his agent is dumb enough to miss many if any games.
A- He must play a minimum of one game this year AND next year for his contract to expire and get to free agency.
B- He has to play a minimum of 6 games EITHER this year or next year to be a unrestricted free agent.
C- He’s not getting paid while he’s not playing.
I don’t think him or his agent is dumb enough to miss many if any games.
His regular planned workload. He’s not injured. What makes you think he needs to practice before he can play? I can name 4 other pro bowlers on the team that haven’t played a preseason snap and have not practiced much if at all that will be full go for game one.
Hairy Snowman
Footballguy
Why would Jerry have paid him by now? Did he "need" him in training camp when the team was evaluating Pollard and the other RBs? There was no reason to rush.
Jerry will use time as leverage and wait until he has to make a decision. The first "break" point for Jerry is game 1 against the Giants.
IMO Both of them have an interest in getting Zeke on the field for the entire season. JJ for obvious reasons. Zeke for negotiation position in his "contract" year.
I think Jerry Jones will do something similar to what Arthur Blank did for Julio. It makes sense for both when a player has 2+ years on a deal, there is some salary cap space and the player has clearly outperformed his contract. Both have an interest in a whole season played. Playing 6 games will hurt Zeke's negotiation position imo.
Just my opinion.
Hairy Snowman
Footballguy
Pretty sure last time he trained in Cabo, he came back and played right away and played well.
Sure, but, why not have some fun.
If he plays 10 carries or 13 touches would be half a normal workload. I'll take the over on that all day long.
Pollard is going to cut into his touches though, that's why they drafted him. They know 350+ touches a year for their elite running back isn't the smartest thing.
Tau837
Footballguy
Comments:
1. In the Gordon thread, it has been posted that he might need to report for as little as a single game, might need to report before week 9, or might need to report before week 13. This bears on your item A for Elliott. I'm not sure which of these interpretations is correct, and I suspect that there is ambiguity, which could mean his agent may feel compelled to interpret this issue conservatively, in which case he may feel he needs to play 4-8 games minimum in each season.
2. You also phrased this as him having to play. He doesn't have to play, he has to report. If he reports by the right deadline and the team does not play him, it would not bear on his free agency.
3. The team can fine him $40K per day of training camp he misses and 1/17 of his salary for each preseason and regular season game he misses. That is a lot of money, especially next season, that will also likely factor into his decision about how long to hold out. If the team upholds the fines and he reports in time to play just 6 games this year, he would forfeit $40K x 20 days + $226,655 x 14 games (4 preseason + 10 regular season) = $3,973,171 for this season... more than his entire 2019 salary of $3,853,137... so he would potentially have to play 6 games for free. Same type of scenario in 2020, but he would stand to forfeit more than twice as much, depending on how many games he held out. Maybe this doesn't factor in to anyone's thinking, since they may assume the team will not uphold the fines.
Add it all up, and I think it is unlikely he misses many games, if any, this year.
You haven't seen this Pollard kid have you?
You could plug in a bunch of people that would get James Conner numbers behind Dallas's OL.
1- I'm assuming it's the least because that is what has been argued in here (any single game).
2- Sure. I'm using the term "play" loosely.
3- Totally agree. It's not only unlikely, it would be really stupid on his part. That's why the front office hasn't budged.
Ok then - its foolish for anyone to use their 1st draft pick on an unsigned player. You are potentially killing your whole season on a gamble. Where are the L Bell owners from last year?? In my league, the Bell owner won 3 games and lost out on Connor because another team snipe him a round early. In fact, the Connor team won our league.
Not going to argue the key to a fantasy draft is knowing when to pick players. If he reports before game 1 is still a big IF. I was just pointing out that if he does, having not practised with the team won't affect his game 1 numbers much. Also pointing out that his situation is way different than Bell's.
(I had pick #2 and logged on late for my draft so it had already auto picked Kamara for me. I probably would have drafted Zeke because I'm a homer, and I think he reports. He went #5).
If you get him late in the first I think you've got great value because he has to play games for all the reasons we've discussed. He shouldn't be there for your second pick.
ETA: (I got Pollard super late.)
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Oddly enough, the Bell owner won my league last year, but that was mostly because of hitting on both Mahomes and Kittle late. Point being, I'm not sure taking Elliott and his holdout continuing kills your season. Obviously, its not ideal, but I'd still take Zeke late round 1.
"We want Zeke when we get to the playoffs,” “We want Zeke when we're in the dog days of this season."Ridding Pollard through the cupcake schedule in the first part of the season might not be such a bad idea.
I still think he reports soon tho.
I think "foolish" might be a bit much. Where are the Bell owners from last year you ask? How about where are the Emmitt Smith owners from 1993? Held out ("you'd be foolish to draft him!", missed two games, then put up almost 2,000 total yards in 14 games. Is there a chance Zeke misses games? Sure. To not consider that as a possibility at this stage is indeed foolish. But he's as stone cold of a lock for top 3 production at RB as there is. So equating his situation where he's seeking a new deal with two years remaining on his contract to Bell's, where he wasn't under contract, seems vastly different. There is simply a different realm of leverage that Zeke has which Bell did not. I think owner's whom are more confident in their ability at drafting are more willing to take a risk on Zeke in the mid to late 1st. If you're not as confident, then by all means draft a lesser player in the 1st and play it safe. But for those playing the odds that the Cowboys and Zeke figure this out sooner than later, it's not foolish to take him when people are starting threads about whether they should consider Dalvin Cook at #5.
STEADYMOBBIN 22
Footballguy
It's all relative. I was pleasantly shocked to see him fall to me at the last pick of the first round (10). I happily snapped him right up with Kelce. I likely have RB1 and TE1 drafting last. I put Pollard in my queue, and took him in the 14th round. Will it be that easy in every draft? no, but I'm happy as a clam.
Maybe leverage wasn’t the right wording. Zeke has a FAR greater likelihood to get the deal that he wants than Bell did, and a far less likelihood to sit out the year than Bell did. All based upon the timing of each RBs threat to hold out.
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
In a way he does. DAL can kiss their playoff hopes goodbye if Zeke misses a significant portion of the season.
cobalt_27
Footballguy
This is pretty close to the worst take going on this board right now. Of course he has leverage, quite a bit of it, in fact.
cobalt_27
Footballguy
STEADYMOBBIN 22
Footballguy
Disagree wholeheartedly. Offensive line depth, or lack there of, specifically the injury to Tyron Smith was the reason the Cowboys missed the playoffs the year before last not because Zeke missed 6 games. We are a FAR better team today, across the board.
STEADYMOBBIN 22
Footballguy
cobalt_27
Footballguy
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dhockster
Footballguy
He does have leverage IF the Cowboys start out poorly against weaker opponents. Whether it is due to Zeke being out or not, there will be tremendous pressure on Jones to sign him at Zeke's asking price lest the season slip away.
If the Cowboys go 3-0 and Pollard looks like a good replacement, then any leverage, real or perceived that Zeke had goes to virtually zero.
Remember that Jerry did cave to Emmitt when the Cowboys started out 0-2 without him. And that Cowboy team was a defending Super Bowl Champ.
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So your best example is 26 years old? And how credible is that? Time will tell who is right but at this point, unsigned, he is not worth 1st rounder. How many people thought Bell would hold out the entire year - just check the Bell thread - not many.
Man In The Box
Footballguy
I was offered Aaron Jones for Zeke. Thinking about taking it and getting off the roller coaster. 
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cobalt_27
Footballguy
Not much margin for error either. Every game matters. Can't assume Cowboys go 3-0 without one of their most talented players. Is utter hubris by steadymobbin and others (including JJ if he thinks this way) to assume it's fine and Pollard gives them an equal chance to win all those games. With as good as PHI is expected to be, need every win possible to get the division title and not leave any margin for error in a tight NFC wild card race.
And, Zeke doesn't have any leverage. Can't make this stuff up.
Your best example is the only player in league history to not sign a franchise tender and rather, decides to sit an entire season? Tell me this, name me a single player whom was under contract that threatened to hold out and ultimately player zero games that season? I think John Riggins did it once, but that was probably 30 years ago (so by your account, that doesn't count).
Yeah, I'll take the example of a player under contract threatening to hold out all year and not actually doing so (which, **shockingly** happens quite frequently) over the guy refusing to sign his franchise tender as a more reasonable comparison.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
The problem is that their first three games are NYG, Miami and Washington. Sure anything can happen in division games but they should be heavily favored in all three games even without Zeke.
Times have changed my friend. RB realize they have a very limited shelf life and big money deals are going to other positions, We should expect this to be a reoccurring trend. Using your logic then you should draft M Gordon in the 2nd
I disagree. There's at least a chance that the plan from the moment they drafted him was to ride him into the ground for 5 years and then part ways. I think that's pretty smart actually, certainly smarter than giving him a huge extension and then limiting his touches IMO.
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
Same here, I drafted Zeke but I also drafted Cook, D. Johnson and Mixon. So I’m set no matter what he does.
Tex
Yeah, another great comp. If you think Zeke and Gordon's situations, and more importantly, leverage to get a new deal, are remotely comparable we'll just agree to disagree. There's a far greater chance than not that Gordon fails to get the new deal he's seeking and thus, holds out into the regular season. But I'll guarantee you this; he'll report by the deadline by which he needs to in order for this year to accrue and lead him into free agency.
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
STEADYMOBBIN 22
Footballguy
You can’t what, have a civil conversation on different viewpoints?
It isn't like I'm the only one saying this:
Dallas Cowboys, With All The Leverage, Shouldn't Pay Ezekiel Elliott
Ezekiel Elliott is using the only leverage he has against the Cowboys (and it’s not much)
Zeke Has No Leverage; Jerry Won't Crack
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