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Best Ball (MFL10s, DRAFT, etc.) (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter Borden
- Start date
foolofatook
Footballguy
So I'm in my first MFL10 and there isn't quite the run on RB that I expected. My pick is coming up and there will be crazy value there at RB for me, but if I take another RB or two will I be giving up too much WR value later on? Please feel free to give me your thoughts. Keep getting RB or grab WR while there are still some good ones?
1.01 Murray
1.02 Gronk
1.03 Bell
1.04 Lacy
1.05 Peterson
1.06 Brown
1.07 Bryant
1.08 Charles (My pick)
1.09 Graham
1.10 Julio
1.11 Demaryius
1.12 Evans
2.01 Beckham
2.02 Lynch
2.03 Megatron
2.04 Luck
2.05 Forte (my pick)
2.06 AJ Green
2.07 Hill
2.08 McCoy
2.09 Jordy
2.10 Foster
2.11 CJ Anderson
2.12 Cobb
3.01 Jeffery
3.02 Hilton
3.03 Hopkins
3.04 Jordan Mathews
3.05 Cooks
1.01 Murray
1.02 Gronk
1.03 Bell
1.04 Lacy
1.05 Peterson
1.06 Brown
1.07 Bryant
1.08 Charles (My pick)
1.09 Graham
1.10 Julio
1.11 Demaryius
1.12 Evans
2.01 Beckham
2.02 Lynch
2.03 Megatron
2.04 Luck
2.05 Forte (my pick)
2.06 AJ Green
2.07 Hill
2.08 McCoy
2.09 Jordy
2.10 Foster
2.11 CJ Anderson
2.12 Cobb
3.01 Jeffery
3.02 Hilton
3.03 Hopkins
3.04 Jordan Mathews
3.05 Cooks
get another RB. you always want to kick WR down the road another round until about 5th - WR always looks like the best value from then until about the 10th. you want to set yourself up to making mostly WR picks in those rounds
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
Agreed. I just went RB rounds 1-5 and my WRs are:
K. Allen, L. Fitz, M. Coston, D. Parker, B. Perriman, P. Dorsett
Almost a guarantee that 1 of those rookie WRs will be WR2/3 this season. I dunno, I love my team going RB-RB-RB-RB-RB-TE-WR
sspunisher
Footballguy
Can't get out of that damn #1 or #2 slot. I've picked in the top 2 in over half of the ones I've done.
Dragon1952
Footballguy
Personally, and no offense, but I think going 3 rookie WR is a recipe for disaster, especially when it's half of your WR corp and having to start a min. of 3 each week and up to 4.
foolofatook
Footballguy
This one is for the charity that was on Twitter, so it's not an official MFL10. You start 2 RB & 2 WE with 2 flex, and it's 1.5 PPR for TE.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
I can see how that makes sense to you on the surface but I drafted my team to be RB dominant. Ideally, I will start 4 RBs and only 2 WRs. Plus, those 3 WRs are my 4-6 options. The team in question is posted above from last night. This is draftmaster/best ball style, so I wont be starting anyone per se, but ideally, 4 RBs/2WRs. Having 3 rookies is great in best ball, imo because I dont have to decide who to start.
sspunisher
Footballguy
You mean 3 RBs. I don't agree with the heavy RB drafts at all. And I feel very strongly that Gronk in the first round of a best ball league is a joke but the community's ADP has spoken.
Borden
Footballguy
Some boom/bust guys from last year,
DJax
Kap
Torrey Smith
Benjamin
Spiller
Cordarrelle
Mike Wallace
Sproles
Crowell
Gio
Steady Eddies,
Boldin
Alf
Roddy
Reshad Jennings?
Fitz
Edelman
Gerhart
It's difficult to try and think about how guys were perceived going into last season without letting current opinions change things. Any others that I missed or that jump out at you that shouldn't be on the list? I will update this as I start to remember them.
DJax
Kap
Torrey Smith
Benjamin
Spiller
Cordarrelle
Mike Wallace
Sproles
Crowell
Gio
Steady Eddies,
Boldin
Alf
Roddy
Reshad Jennings?
Fitz
Edelman
Gerhart
It's difficult to try and think about how guys were perceived going into last season without letting current opinions change things. Any others that I missed or that jump out at you that shouldn't be on the list? I will update this as I start to remember them.
Dragon1952
Footballguy
I guess that's OK if your RB's perform to expectations. I'm a little leery of DeMarco this year and I avoid Morris like the plague. In almost half of his games last year he averaged you 5.7 ppg and that's PPR. You've got 2 RB on new teams with uncertainty about their roles/usage, Gurley may not be relevant right away so I'm not sure you can bank on counting 4 RB's per week.
Borden
Footballguy
Best Ball format. So each week your best performing;
QB
RB x2
WR x3
TE
Flex (RB/WR/TE)
Def
Is started for you. Then at the end the total of your 16 week season the winner is the one with the most points. No trades, no setting line ups, no waiver wire. And no kickers. Draft and you're done. You draft a total of 20 players.
freeannyong
Footballguy
I've done two so far and not gone RB heavy at all in the early rounds. I have been seeing some more of the data how it is optimal to get your top 2 rbs early so I will try that next draft. Here is the current one I am in and the running backs are super shakey
1.5 Antonio Brown
2.8 AJ Green
3.5 Brandin Cooks
4.8 Jordan Mathews
5.5 Latavious Murray
6.8 Shane Veeren
7.5 Bishop Sankey
8.8 Devanta Adams
9.5 David Johnson
1.5 Antonio Brown
2.8 AJ Green
3.5 Brandin Cooks
4.8 Jordan Mathews
5.5 Latavious Murray
6.8 Shane Veeren
7.5 Bishop Sankey
8.8 Devanta Adams
9.5 David Johnson
Borden
Footballguy
Well pretty much every week you get the player, who is without question, the most likely to put up the highest points at his position. Then you add in that you can get Eifert in the middle of the 11th round to back him up and you have likely the highest producing TE situation.
Now look at your other options at TE. There's not much. Gronk can produce like a top ten WR and you can get a guy like Hill in the second round. And you can pick up an extra WR when everyone else is getting a TE. Plus, at the end of the draft there is still WRs that will get 5 TDs on the year. Basically, you take Gronk in place of one of the top WRs. Now you have elite production at a position of scarcity and you back fill at a position of abundance, WR.
As someone who has drafted Gronk, I will say you really have to know what you're doing with a preset plan in place. Drafting Gronk is like seeing those people that do motorcycle tricks. The high level people you see do it make it look easy and amazing. Most people though when they try it crash and burn. I know I'm definitely one of the ones crashing and burning.
plastik
Footballguy
There is also a bit of luck in the factor of who falls to you in the 2-4th if you took Gronk in the 1st, because you obviously don't know that at the time you take him and who falls to you later varies greatly. Ideally I'd like to go RB, WR, RB after taking him. I took Gronk at 1.05 in a draft that is underway, then Forsett in the 2nd, Cobb in the 3rd, and J. Randle in the 4th. If those RBs work out, especially Randle, I think I'll be in good shape.
Looking at last years numbers at TE, pairing Gronk with a later round guy would have probably gotten you something in the 280-310 point range in most cases. If you had taken something like Cook/Ertz/Miller (TE11,13, and 16 overall) you'd have been in the 230 range at starting TE. Witten/Fleener/Miller (TE9-11 overall) would have put you at 240. So unless you can manage to land a group of three TEs that either all end up in the middle of the top 10 or a couple that radically outproduce their ADP, then Gronk and almost anyone will probably give you a pretty substantial advantage. I think I'll end up doing about 30 MFL10s this year, and I think in around 7 I'll likely take Gronk with different combos of RBs and WRs. If a few of those other players hit, a Gronk team would be very competitive, I think. It's certainly worth taking a stab at.
Dragon1952
Footballguy
7 out of 17 now where I've got the 12 spot. This is bordering on the ridiculous 
sspunisher
Footballguy
I just find the flip flop in rankings every year amusing. Though it's usually just the "amateurs" on these boards who blow ADP out of proportion. But almost every "expert" this year is on board with this Gronk thing and I think it's insanity. People are chasing the points from last year. The Flawed Logic: Gronk was on a ton of championship teams in 2014. If I draft Gronk in 2015, I'll have a positional advantage at TE and win a championship.
Drafting Gronk didn't win championships last year. Drafting Gronk at his 2nd/3rd round ADP won championships. He's way overvalued this year. He's going an entire round before where he should actually be getting drafted. There's a solid 15 players give or take that I'd put ahead of Gronk.
Kwai Chang Caine
Footballguy
You make a really good point. One of my winning teams from last year had Gronk in round two. I also took Manning in the 3rd believe it or not. Calvin was my #1. I had Sanders who helped a lot. Point being, if Graham can rebound--he might be the ultimate value play. I've taken him late 2 earlier and now I've gotten him as low as early 4th. I've passed on Gronk so far every time.
Borden
Footballguy
So based on this,BroadwayG said:
Round 1 - RB
Round 2 - RB (or Gronk)
Round 3 - Luck/Rodgers
Round 4 - BPA
Round 5 - WR
Round 6 - WR
Round 7 - BPA
Round 8 - BPA
Round 9 - TE or QB
Round 10 - QB or TE
Round 11 - QB
After that I'm guessing just BPA. This was a very quick look. I will take some time and break it down more this weekend. Sort by round and see with position gets drafted in what round and how it looks towards winning %
sspunisher
Footballguy
What's are the 1rate and 2rate columns exactly?BroadwayG said:
Reaper
Footballguy
Wait-a-sec i thought you needed a min of THREE starting Wr's? Max 3 Starting RB's ????
plastik
Footballguy
Bloom's reply was to a guy drafting in an MFL 10. Rhythmdoctor is playing draftnasters on RTSports, 10 team league with different rules. Max starting RBs on MFL is 3.
sspunisher
Footballguy
Is the site down?
plastik
Footballguy
I'm in on this too. Very interesting and organic process tied to various media... If someone like Bloom or Evan Silva wanted to they could easily talk a player up and move his ADP by 2-3 rounds. As soon as 'experts' were talking about Stevie Johnson his ADP jumped like 5 rounds. From last year I remember it being particularly interesting as training camp rolled around and ADPs started moving even more quickly.BroadwayG said:
For those in normal redraft leagues, I feel like MFL 10s are great training, like FF boot camp... they put you in great drafting shape.
fridayfrenzy
Footballguy
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
That may be correct for MFL10s. My rosteris from a RTsports Draftmaster which has min requirement of 2 for both RB and WR.Reaper said:
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
Thanks for clarifying!plastik said:
Willie Neslon
Footballguy
The MFL10 mock draft done by fbg staff has me 
. Some wacky picks in there. Phillip Dorsett at 7.06? Huh?
. Some wacky picks in there. Phillip Dorsett at 7.06? Huh?
Borden
Footballguy
I haven't seen that but I think most of these drafts you'll see media/industry people take players way outside of ADP. Either to make a point about how much they like a guy or because they think someone else is going to jump ADP to get their guy. You look through the draft and that Dorsett pick has you talking/thinking about it then mission accomplished. It's also just a mock right?The MFL10 mock draft done by fbg staff has me
Willie Neslon
Footballguy
I guess. To me the mock comes off like some of the 12 haven't done an MFL10 yet. Jumping ADP is fine but that's a massive jump. There are others but it's a pay article.I haven't seen that but I think most of these drafts you'll see media/industry people take players way outside of ADP. Either to make a point about how much they like a guy or because they think someone else is going to jump ADP to get their guy. You look through the draft and that Dorsett pick has you talking/thinking about it then mission accomplished. It's also just a mock right?The MFL10 mock draft done by fbg staff has me
rikishiboy
Footballguy
Recently finished my first MFL 10 ever. Pretty happy but, I am aware of obvious holes...most notably at rb. Anyway I drafted out of the 8 spot.
Qb--roethlisberger, Brady, mariota, winston
I think at least 3 is wise for best ball and throwing on Winston late just made sense.
Rb--foster, yeldon, woodhead, white
This is my weak spot but, on the positive there aren't any bye issues so fingers crossed.
Wr --Beckham, Jeffery, Cooper, boldin, Parker, Dorset, lockets
Yes a lot of rookies but, I am not relying on most of them, so I am happy to gamble on their upside.
Te --ertz,eifert
Both are decent options.
Def --Broncos, Browns, buccaneers
Like qb I think having at least 3 is best.
Anyway MFL ranked me 4th and I am okay with that.
Qb--roethlisberger, Brady, mariota, winston
I think at least 3 is wise for best ball and throwing on Winston late just made sense.
Rb--foster, yeldon, woodhead, white
This is my weak spot but, on the positive there aren't any bye issues so fingers crossed.
Wr --Beckham, Jeffery, Cooper, boldin, Parker, Dorset, lockets
Yes a lot of rookies but, I am not relying on most of them, so I am happy to gamble on their upside.
Te --ertz,eifert
Both are decent options.
Def --Broncos, Browns, buccaneers
Like qb I think having at least 3 is best.
Anyway MFL ranked me 4th and I am okay with that.
Borden
Footballguy
With Brady and Ben, Mariota and Winston are wasted picks. You can only "start" 1 QB. And those two picks cost you RB depth. You have to start 2 RBs and can start up to 3.
It's your draft do what you want and any line up can win but I would highly suggest not going with 4 QBs in any future MFL10s.
It's your draft do what you want and any line up can win but I would highly suggest not going with 4 QBs in any future MFL10s.
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
I agree with this. I'm fine with a third QB but the fourth was just a waste and took away RB depth with in more important.
Penguin
Footballguy
For those of you asking about teams starting with Gronk & Luck, a guy in my newest league 31944 just did this at 1.04 & 2.09
1.04 Gronk
2.09 A.Luck
3.04 M.Evans
4.09 A.Johnson
5.04 A.Abdullah
6.09 B.Perriman
7.04 C.Johnson
8.09 T.Mason
Thru 8 rounds
I got Charles at 1.07 (felt like stealing)
My Team so far
1.07 J.Charles
2.06 L.McCoy
3.07 D.Hopkins
4.06 J.Matthews
5.07 A.Robinson
6.06 G.Olsen
7.07 J.Landry
8.06 Z.Ertz
1.04 Gronk
2.09 A.Luck
3.04 M.Evans
4.09 A.Johnson
5.04 A.Abdullah
6.09 B.Perriman
7.04 C.Johnson
8.09 T.Mason
Thru 8 rounds
I got Charles at 1.07 (felt like stealing)
My Team so far
1.07 J.Charles
2.06 L.McCoy
3.07 D.Hopkins
4.06 J.Matthews
5.07 A.Robinson
6.06 G.Olsen
7.07 J.Landry
8.06 Z.Ertz
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rikishiboy
Footballguy
Thank you....in retrospect I could of gone helu or Matt Jones over mariota. If I passed on Winston, it would of been lance Dunbar or buck Allen.
BroncoFreak_2K3
sucker for Orange
Really is true. The comments about the best pick/worst pick are hilarious to be honest.BroadwayG said:The whole thing is a weak attempt at content. There is nothing positive to learn from the article or the analysis.The MFL10 mock draft done by fbg staff has me
msudaisy26
Footballguy
If he loads up on running backs that team looks very good. I like the start of your draft except for Matthews, I am not very high on him this year.
Thanks - where did you get this data?BroadwayG said:
I've read a decent number of analysis on which rounds you should draft each position. I think too many people are looking at past year's results and assuming things in the NFL will break the same or even very similarly. With that said, I think it's very helpful to look at and there are clearly some strong trends to take away from analyzing past year's results.
Another thing I see is people basically unaware that it's a small market of participants driving a massive amount of the volume. Some of the best players are even creating content that a lot of the other players are reading and reacting to. As soon as a player is touted within the MFL community or even fantasy community at large, ADP's change quickly. In short, soon enough the only edge will be drafting against players who aren't reading any strategy pieces and are just purely drafting for fun. I don't think there are many of these types of players in this format.
Footballguy's MFL draft and analysis was laughably bad. I would be surprised if the the majority of those participants had ever participated in an MFL10, much less a 25, 50, or 100.
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plastik
Footballguy
While I've made this same point regarding the way analysts impact ADP through content, I somewhat disagree on your second point. While it's true that many of the people playing will have a lot of the same strategies regarding team build (3 Ds, good balance of positions, etc) there are still the components of disciplined drafting, reacting to in-draft trends or inefficiencies, and drafting value according to your own rankings. Most analysts are wrong on players just as frequently as the rest of us, so when they pump a player up and his ADP rises that doesn't mean he's necessarily a good pick, and before long he's being over drafted regardless. Basically, if you're have a pretty good handle on drafting, do a decent job of identifying values (particularly in non-hyped players), and diversify rosters across a volume of MFL 10s, I think you can still have a bit of an edge. Last year I won two of my ten MFL10s and placed second in another, not stellar but certainly good enough... If I can win even one in eight this year I'll consider it a big win, plus they're fun and put me in a great position to excel in any of my annual redraft leagues.
twistd
Footballguy
I am on my second one and I am in the 12th spot again. I hate the turn, and I really hate picking 12th. Seems very unlikely that i would do two and both would end up in the 12th spot. Curious how draft slots are generated.
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As soon as everyone approaches roster construction ~optimally, the focus will be on improving what you mentioned in your post. This stuff isn't exactly rocket science, and the edge you can get by reacting "in-draft" against other players who are also well aware that this is important is very small. Ditto to coming up with your own rankings.
I am interested to see if the best ball format will catch on with some higher stakes options. There could actually be some real money to be made if there was liquidity at say the $1k level.
twistd
Footballguy
I am 2 out of 2 in the 12th spot. So I am on pace to beat you. I hate the 12th spot.7 out of 17 now where I've got the 12 spot. This is bordering on the ridiculous
plastik
Footballguy
For the fun of it, I made a private MFL 10 to see if we can fill one with just people that frequent this thread. If it doesn't fill, you can always withdraw from it.
Here is the direct link. The password is "footballguys1". Hope it fills!
My suggestion would be to make your team name your footballguys handle, as it'd be fun to be able to link the team to the poster.
Here is the direct link. The password is "footballguys1". Hope it fills!
My suggestion would be to make your team name your footballguys handle, as it'd be fun to be able to link the team to the poster.
FF Wiseguy
Footballguy
I'm interested in joining this, but the link did not work for me.plastik said:
plastik
Footballguy
I think you can just go to the MFL 10 Public Dashboard and find the league by using the password here: http://football20.myfantasyleague.com/2015/public#0
