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Best Ball (MFL10s, DRAFT, etc.)


Borden

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So I'm in my first MFL10 and there isn't quite the run on RB that I expected. My pick is coming up and there will be crazy value there at RB for me, but if I take another RB or two will I be giving up too much WR value later on? Please feel free to give me your thoughts. Keep getting RB or grab WR while there are still some good ones?

1.01 Murray

1.02 Gronk

1.03 Bell

1.04 Lacy

1.05 Peterson

1.06 Brown

1.07 Bryant

1.08 Charles (My pick)

1.09 Graham

1.10 Julio

1.11 Demaryius

1.12 Evans

2.01 Beckham

2.02 Lynch

2.03 Megatron

2.04 Luck

2.05 Forte (my pick)

2.06 AJ Green

2.07 Hill

2.08 McCoy

2.09 Jordy

2.10 Foster

2.11 CJ Anderson

2.12 Cobb

3.01 Jeffery

3.02 Hilton

3.03 Hopkins

3.04 Jordan Mathews

3.05 Cooks

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get another RB. you always want to kick WR down the road another round until about 5th - WR always looks like the best value from then until about the 10th. you want to set yourself up to making mostly WR picks in those rounds

Agreed. I just went RB rounds 1-5 and my WRs are:

K. Allen, L. Fitz, M. Coston, D. Parker, B. Perriman, P. Dorsett

Almost a guarantee that 1 of those rookie WRs will be WR2/3 this season. I dunno, I love my team going RB-RB-RB-RB-RB-TE-WR

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get another RB. you always want to kick WR down the road another round until about 5th - WR always looks like the best value from then until about the 10th. you want to set yourself up to making mostly WR picks in those rounds

Agreed. I just went RB rounds 1-5 and my WRs are:

K. Allen, L. Fitz, M. Coston, D. Parker, B. Perriman, P. Dorsett

Almost a guarantee that 1 of those rookie WRs will be WR2/3 this season. I dunno, I love my team going RB-RB-RB-RB-RB-TE-WR

Personally, and no offense, but I think going 3 rookie WR is a recipe for disaster, especially when it's half of your WR corp and having to start a min. of 3 each week and up to 4.

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get another RB. you always want to kick WR down the road another round until about 5th - WR always looks like the best value from then until about the 10th. you want to set yourself up to making mostly WR picks in those rounds

Agreed. I just went RB rounds 1-5 and my WRs are:

K. Allen, L. Fitz, M. Coston, D. Parker, B. Perriman, P. Dorsett

Almost a guarantee that 1 of those rookie WRs will be WR2/3 this season. I dunno, I love my team going RB-RB-RB-RB-RB-TE-WR

Personally, and no offense, but I think going 3 rookie WR is a recipe for disaster, especially when it's half of your WR corp and having to start a min. of 3 each week and up to 4.

I can see how that makes sense to you on the surface but I drafted my team to be RB dominant. Ideally, I will start 4 RBs and only 2 WRs. Plus, those 3 WRs are my 4-6 options. The team in question is posted above from last night. This is draftmaster/best ball style, so I wont be starting anyone per se, but ideally, 4 RBs/2WRs. Having 3 rookies is great in best ball, imo because I dont have to decide who to start.

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Some boom/bust guys from last year,

DJax

Kap

Torrey Smith

Benjamin

Spiller

Cordarrelle

Mike Wallace

Sproles

Crowell

Gio

Steady Eddies,

Boldin

Alf

Roddy

Reshad Jennings?

Fitz

Edelman

Gerhart

It's difficult to try and think about how guys were perceived going into last season without letting current opinions change things. Any others that I missed or that jump out at you that shouldn't be on the list? I will update this as I start to remember them.

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get another RB. you always want to kick WR down the road another round until about 5th - WR always looks like the best value from then until about the 10th. you want to set yourself up to making mostly WR picks in those rounds

Agreed. I just went RB rounds 1-5 and my WRs are:

K. Allen, L. Fitz, M. Coston, D. Parker, B. Perriman, P. Dorsett

Almost a guarantee that 1 of those rookie WRs will be WR2/3 this season. I dunno, I love my team going RB-RB-RB-RB-RB-TE-WR

Personally, and no offense, but I think going 3 rookie WR is a recipe for disaster, especially when it's half of your WR corp and having to start a min. of 3 each week and up to 4.

I can see how that makes sense to you on the surface but I drafted my team to be RB dominant. Ideally, I will start 4 RBs and only 2 WRs. Plus, those 3 WRs are my 4-6 options. The team in question is posted above from last night. This is draftmaster/best ball style, so I wont be starting anyone per se, but ideally, 4 RBs/2WRs. Having 3 rookies is great in best ball, imo because I dont have to decide who to start.

I guess that's OK if your RB's perform to expectations. I'm a little leery of DeMarco this year and I avoid Morris like the plague. In almost half of his games last year he averaged you 5.7 ppg and that's PPR. You've got 2 RB on new teams with uncertainty about their roles/usage, Gurley may not be relevant right away so I'm not sure you can bank on counting 4 RB's per week.

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What is the season setup for MFL10s? Is it total points? Weekly head to head? Playoffs?

Best Ball format. So each week your best performing;

QB

RB x2

WR x3

TE

Flex (RB/WR/TE)

Def

Is started for you. Then at the end the total of your 16 week season the winner is the one with the most points. No trades, no setting line ups, no waiver wire. And no kickers. Draft and you're done. You draft a total of 20 players.

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I've done two so far and not gone RB heavy at all in the early rounds. I have been seeing some more of the data how it is optimal to get your top 2 rbs early so I will try that next draft. Here is the current one I am in and the running backs are super shakey

1.5 Antonio Brown

2.8 AJ Green

3.5 Brandin Cooks

4.8 Jordan Mathews

5.5 Latavious Murray

6.8 Shane Veeren

7.5 Bishop Sankey

8.8 Devanta Adams

9.5 David Johnson

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You mean 3 RBs. I don't agree with the heavy RB drafts at all. And I feel very strongly that Gronk in the first round of a best ball league is a joke but the community's ADP has spoken.

Well pretty much every week you get the player, who is without question, the most likely to put up the highest points at his position. Then you add in that you can get Eifert in the middle of the 11th round to back him up and you have likely the highest producing TE situation.

Now look at your other options at TE. There's not much. Gronk can produce like a top ten WR and you can get a guy like Hill in the second round. And you can pick up an extra WR when everyone else is getting a TE. Plus, at the end of the draft there is still WRs that will get 5 TDs on the year. Basically, you take Gronk in place of one of the top WRs. Now you have elite production at a position of scarcity and you back fill at a position of abundance, WR.

As someone who has drafted Gronk, I will say you really have to know what you're doing with a preset plan in place. Drafting Gronk is like seeing those people that do motorcycle tricks. The high level people you see do it make it look easy and amazing. Most people though when they try it crash and burn. I know I'm definitely one of the ones crashing and burning.

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You mean 3 RBs. I don't agree with the heavy RB drafts at all. And I feel very strongly that Gronk in the first round of a best ball league is a joke but the community's ADP has spoken.

Well pretty much every week you get the player, who is without question, the most likely to put up the highest points at his position. Then you add in that you can get Eifert in the middle of the 11th round to back him up and you have likely the highest producing TE situation.

Now look at your other options at TE. There's not much. Gronk can produce like a top ten WR and you can get a guy like Hill in the second round. And you can pick up an extra WR when everyone else is getting a TE. Plus, at the end of the draft there is still WRs that will get 5 TDs on the year. Basically, you take Gronk in place of one of the top WRs. Now you have elite production at a position of scarcity and you back fill at a position of abundance, WR.

As someone who has drafted Gronk, I will say you really have to know what you're doing with a preset plan in place. Drafting Gronk is like seeing those people that do motorcycle tricks. The high level people you see do it make it look easy and amazing. Most people though when they try it crash and burn. I know I'm definitely one of the ones crashing and burning.

There is also a bit of luck in the factor of who falls to you in the 2-4th if you took Gronk in the 1st, because you obviously don't know that at the time you take him and who falls to you later varies greatly. Ideally I'd like to go RB, WR, RB after taking him. I took Gronk at 1.05 in a draft that is underway, then Forsett in the 2nd, Cobb in the 3rd, and J. Randle in the 4th. If those RBs work out, especially Randle, I think I'll be in good shape.

Looking at last years numbers at TE, pairing Gronk with a later round guy would have probably gotten you something in the 280-310 point range in most cases. If you had taken something like Cook/Ertz/Miller (TE11,13, and 16 overall) you'd have been in the 230 range at starting TE. Witten/Fleener/Miller (TE9-11 overall) would have put you at 240. So unless you can manage to land a group of three TEs that either all end up in the middle of the top 10 or a couple that radically outproduce their ADP, then Gronk and almost anyone will probably give you a pretty substantial advantage. I think I'll end up doing about 30 MFL10s this year, and I think in around 7 I'll likely take Gronk with different combos of RBs and WRs. If a few of those other players hit, a Gronk team would be very competitive, I think. It's certainly worth taking a stab at.

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There is also a bit of luck in the factor of who falls to you in the 2-4th if you took Gronk in the 1st, because you obviously don't know that at the time you take him and who falls to you later varies greatly. Ideally I'd like to go RB, WR, RB after taking him. I took Gronk at 1.05 in a draft that is underway, then Forsett in the 2nd, Cobb in the 3rd, and J. Randle in the 4th. If those RBs work out, especially Randle, I think I'll be in good shape.

Looking at last years numbers at TE, pairing Gronk with a later round guy would have probably gotten you something in the 280-310 point range in most cases. If you had taken something like Cook/Ertz/Miller (TE11,13, and 16 overall) you'd have been in the 230 range at starting TE. Witten/Fleener/Miller (TE9-11 overall) would have put you at 240. So unless you can manage to land a group of three TEs that either all end up in the middle of the top 10 or a couple that radically outproduce their ADP, then Gronk and almost anyone will probably give you a pretty substantial advantage. I think I'll end up doing about 30 MFL10s this year, and I think in around 7 I'll likely take Gronk with different combos of RBs and WRs. If a few of those other players hit, a Gronk team would be very competitive, I think. It's certainly worth taking a stab at.

I just find the flip flop in rankings every year amusing. Though it's usually just the "amateurs" on these boards who blow ADP out of proportion. But almost every "expert" this year is on board with this Gronk thing and I think it's insanity. People are chasing the points from last year. The Flawed Logic: Gronk was on a ton of championship teams in 2014. If I draft Gronk in 2015, I'll have a positional advantage at TE and win a championship.

Drafting Gronk didn't win championships last year. Drafting Gronk at his 2nd/3rd round ADP won championships. He's way overvalued this year. He's going an entire round before where he should actually be getting drafted. There's a solid 15 players give or take that I'd put ahead of Gronk.

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There is also a bit of luck in the factor of who falls to you in the 2-4th if you took Gronk in the 1st, because you obviously don't know that at the time you take him and who falls to you later varies greatly. Ideally I'd like to go RB, WR, RB after taking him. I took Gronk at 1.05 in a draft that is underway, then Forsett in the 2nd, Cobb in the 3rd, and J. Randle in the 4th. If those RBs work out, especially Randle, I think I'll be in good shape.

Looking at last years numbers at TE, pairing Gronk with a later round guy would have probably gotten you something in the 280-310 point range in most cases. If you had taken something like Cook/Ertz/Miller (TE11,13, and 16 overall) you'd have been in the 230 range at starting TE. Witten/Fleener/Miller (TE9-11 overall) would have put you at 240. So unless you can manage to land a group of three TEs that either all end up in the middle of the top 10 or a couple that radically outproduce their ADP, then Gronk and almost anyone will probably give you a pretty substantial advantage. I think I'll end up doing about 30 MFL10s this year, and I think in around 7 I'll likely take Gronk with different combos of RBs and WRs. If a few of those other players hit, a Gronk team would be very competitive, I think. It's certainly worth taking a stab at.

I just find the flip flop in rankings every year amusing. Though it's usually just the "amateurs" on these boards who blow ADP out of proportion. But almost every "expert" this year is on board with this Gronk thing and I think it's insanity. People are chasing the points from last year. The Flawed Logic: Gronk was on a ton of championship teams in 2014. If I draft Gronk in 2015, I'll have a positional advantage at TE and win a championship.

Drafting Gronk didn't win championships last year. Drafting Gronk at his 2nd/3rd round ADP won championships. He's way overvalued this year. He's going an entire round before where he should actually be getting drafted. There's a solid 15 players give or take that I'd put ahead of Gronk.

You make a really good point. One of my winning teams from last year had Gronk in round two. I also took Manning in the 3rd believe it or not. Calvin was my #1. I had Sanders who helped a lot. Point being, if Graham can rebound--he might be the ultimate value play. I've taken him late 2 earlier and now I've gotten him as low as early 4th. I've passed on Gronk so far every time.

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Following the ebb and flow of the ADP has been extremely interesting. I don't know if I should feel weird that I am so fascinated by it.

I said the same thing a few weeks ago. So if there's at least two of us maybe we can start a support group. A 12 step program where you have have to apologize to the people you jacked up and I have to apologize for ruining ADPs.

*cough* DMC *cough*

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Something else I'm noticing is when there's multiple people draft slow but not timing out people tend to make bad picks. I'm not sure if it's that they lose interest or that they are new or what but it's nice for me.

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Since you have the stats I have lots of questions.

- Which round gives you the best EV for WR1, WR2, TE1, QB, RB2 etc?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10jOlLCMV69lceZaYggcGCWUmYaG_sLJPM8D_CInBDBk/edit?usp=sharing

Complete positional breakdown by round showing winrates, 2nd place rates and scoring average.

Added a tab that puts the player in also if you want some further detail.

So based on this,

Round 1 - RB

Round 2 - RB (or Gronk)

Round 3 - Luck/Rodgers

Round 4 - BPA

Round 5 - WR

Round 6 - WR

Round 7 - BPA

Round 8 - BPA

Round 9 - TE or QB

Round 10 - QB or TE

Round 11 - QB

After that I'm guessing just BPA. This was a very quick look. I will take some time and break it down more this weekend. Sort by round and see with position gets drafted in what round and how it looks towards winning %

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get another RB. you always want to kick WR down the road another round until about 5th - WR always looks like the best value from then until about the 10th. you want to set yourself up to making mostly WR picks in those rounds

Agreed. I just went RB rounds 1-5 and my WRs are:

K. Allen, L. Fitz, M. Coston, D. Parker, B. Perriman, P. Dorsett

Almost a guarantee that 1 of those rookie WRs will be WR2/3 this season. I dunno, I love my team going RB-RB-RB-RB-RB-TE-WR

Personally, and no offense, but I think going 3 rookie WR is a recipe for disaster, especially when it's half of your WR corp and having to start a min. of 3 each week and up to 4.

I can see how that makes sense to you on the surface but I drafted my team to be RB dominant. Ideally, I will start 4 RBs and only 2 WRs. Plus, those 3 WRs are my 4-6 options. The team in question is posted above from last night. This is draftmaster/best ball style, so I wont be starting anyone per se, but ideally, 4 RBs/2WRs. Having 3 rookies is great in best ball, imo because I dont have to decide who to start.

Wait-a-sec i thought you needed a min of THREE starting Wr's? Max 3 Starting RB's ????

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get another RB. you always want to kick WR down the road another round until about 5th - WR always looks like the best value from then until about the 10th. you want to set yourself up to making mostly WR picks in those rounds

Agreed. I just went RB rounds 1-5 and my WRs are:

K. Allen, L. Fitz, M. Coston, D. Parker, B. Perriman, P. Dorsett

Almost a guarantee that 1 of those rookie WRs will be WR2/3 this season. I dunno, I love my team going RB-RB-RB-RB-RB-TE-WR

Personally, and no offense, but I think going 3 rookie WR is a recipe for disaster, especially when it's half of your WR corp and having to start a min. of 3 each week and up to 4.

I can see how that makes sense to you on the surface but I drafted my team to be RB dominant. Ideally, I will start 4 RBs and only 2 WRs. Plus, those 3 WRs are my 4-6 options. The team in question is posted above from last night. This is draftmaster/best ball style, so I wont be starting anyone per se, but ideally, 4 RBs/2WRs. Having 3 rookies is great in best ball, imo because I dont have to decide who to start.

Wait-a-sec i thought you needed a min of THREE starting Wr's? Max 3 Starting RB's ????

Bloom's reply was to a guy drafting in an MFL 10. Rhythmdoctor is playing draftnasters on RTSports, 10 team league with different rules. Max starting RBs on MFL is 3.

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Following the ebb and flow of the ADP has been extremely interesting. I don't know if I should feel weird that I am so fascinated by it.

I'm in on this too. Very interesting and organic process tied to various media... If someone like Bloom or Evan Silva wanted to they could easily talk a player up and move his ADP by 2-3 rounds. As soon as 'experts' were talking about Stevie Johnson his ADP jumped like 5 rounds. From last year I remember it being particularly interesting as training camp rolled around and ADPs started moving even more quickly.

For those in normal redraft leagues, I feel like MFL 10s are great training, like FF boot camp... they put you in great drafting shape.

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get another RB. you always want to kick WR down the road another round until about 5th - WR always looks like the best value from then until about the 10th. you want to set yourself up to making mostly WR picks in those rounds

Agreed. I just went RB rounds 1-5 and my WRs are:

K. Allen, L. Fitz, M. Coston, D. Parker, B. Perriman, P. Dorsett

Almost a guarantee that 1 of those rookie WRs will be WR2/3 this season. I dunno, I love my team going RB-RB-RB-RB-RB-TE-WR

Personally, and no offense, but I think going 3 rookie WR is a recipe for disaster, especially when it's half of your WR corp and having to start a min. of 3 each week and up to 4.

I can see how that makes sense to you on the surface but I drafted my team to be RB dominant. Ideally, I will start 4 RBs and only 2 WRs. Plus, those 3 WRs are my 4-6 options. The team in question is posted above from last night. This is draftmaster/best ball style, so I wont be starting anyone per se, but ideally, 4 RBs/2WRs. Having 3 rookies is great in best ball, imo because I dont have to decide who to start.

Wait-a-sec i thought you needed a min of THREE starting Wr's? Max 3 Starting RB's ????

That may be correct for MFL10s. My rosteris from a RTsports Draftmaster which has min requirement of 2 for both RB and WR.
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get another RB. you always want to kick WR down the road another round until about 5th - WR always looks like the best value from then until about the 10th. you want to set yourself up to making mostly WR picks in those rounds

Agreed. I just went RB rounds 1-5 and my WRs are:

K. Allen, L. Fitz, M. Coston, D. Parker, B. Perriman, P. Dorsett

Almost a guarantee that 1 of those rookie WRs will be WR2/3 this season. I dunno, I love my team going RB-RB-RB-RB-RB-TE-WR

Personally, and no offense, but I think going 3 rookie WR is a recipe for disaster, especially when it's half of your WR corp and having to start a min. of 3 each week and up to 4.

I can see how that makes sense to you on the surface but I drafted my team to be RB dominant. Ideally, I will start 4 RBs and only 2 WRs. Plus, those 3 WRs are my 4-6 options. The team in question is posted above from last night. This is draftmaster/best ball style, so I wont be starting anyone per se, but ideally, 4 RBs/2WRs. Having 3 rookies is great in best ball, imo because I dont have to decide who to start.

Wait-a-sec i thought you needed a min of THREE starting Wr's? Max 3 Starting RB's ????

Bloom's reply was to a guy drafting in an MFL 10. Rhythmdoctor is playing draftnasters on RTSports, 10 team league with different rules. Max starting RBs on MFL is 3.

Thanks for clarifying!
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The MFL10 mock draft done by fbg staff has me :confused:. Some wacky picks in there. Phillip Dorsett at 7.06? Huh?

I haven't seen that but I think most of these drafts you'll see media/industry people take players way outside of ADP. Either to make a point about how much they like a guy or because they think someone else is going to jump ADP to get their guy. You look through the draft and that Dorsett pick has you talking/thinking about it then mission accomplished. It's also just a mock right?

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The MFL10 mock draft done by fbg staff has me :confused:. Some wacky picks in there. Phillip Dorsett at 7.06? Huh?

I haven't seen that but I think most of these drafts you'll see media/industry people take players way outside of ADP. Either to make a point about how much they like a guy or because they think someone else is going to jump ADP to get their guy. You look through the draft and that Dorsett pick has you talking/thinking about it then mission accomplished. It's also just a mock right?

I guess. To me the mock comes off like some of the 12 haven't done an MFL10 yet. Jumping ADP is fine but that's a massive jump. There are others but it's a pay article.

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Recently finished my first MFL 10 ever. Pretty happy but, I am aware of obvious holes...most notably at rb. Anyway I drafted out of the 8 spot.

Qb--roethlisberger, Brady, mariota, winston

I think at least 3 is wise for best ball and throwing on Winston late just made sense.

Rb--foster, yeldon, woodhead, white

This is my weak spot but, on the positive there aren't any bye issues so fingers crossed.

Wr --Beckham, Jeffery, Cooper, boldin, Parker, Dorset, lockets

Yes a lot of rookies but, I am not relying on most of them, so I am happy to gamble on their upside.

Te --ertz,eifert

Both are decent options.

Def --Broncos, Browns, buccaneers

Like qb I think having at least 3 is best.

Anyway MFL ranked me 4th and I am okay with that.

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With Brady and Ben, Mariota and Winston are wasted picks. You can only "start" 1 QB. And those two picks cost you RB depth. You have to start 2 RBs and can start up to 3.

It's your draft do what you want and any line up can win but I would highly suggest not going with 4 QBs in any future MFL10s.

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With Brady and Ben, Mariota and Winston are wasted picks. You can only "start" 1 QB. And those two picks cost you RB depth. You have to start 2 RBs and can start up to 3.

It's your draft do what you want and any line up can win but I would highly suggest not going with 4 QBs in any future MFL10s.

I agree with this. I'm fine with a third QB but the fourth was just a waste and took away RB depth with in more important.

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For those of you asking about teams starting with Gronk & Luck, a guy in my newest league 31944 just did this at 1.04 & 2.09

1.04 Gronk

2.09 A.Luck

3.04 M.Evans

4.09 A.Johnson

5.04 A.Abdullah

6.09 B.Perriman

7.04 C.Johnson

8.09 T.Mason

Thru 8 rounds

I got Charles at 1.07 (felt like stealing)

My Team so far

1.07 J.Charles

2.06 L.McCoy

3.07 D.Hopkins

4.06 J.Matthews

5.07 A.Robinson

6.06 G.Olsen

7.07 J.Landry

8.06 Z.Ertz

Edited by Penguin
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With Brady and Ben, Mariota and Winston are wasted picks. You can only "start" 1 QB. And those two picks cost you RB depth. You have to start 2 RBs and can start up to 3.

It's your draft do what you want and any line up can win but I would highly suggest not going with 4 QBs in any future MFL10s.

Thank you....in retrospect I could of gone helu or Matt Jones over mariota. If I passed on Winston, it would of been lance Dunbar or buck Allen.

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The MFL10 mock draft done by fbg staff has me :confused:. Some wacky picks in there. Phillip Dorsett at 7.06? Huh?

The whole thing is a weak attempt at content. There is nothing positive to learn from the article or the analysis.

Really is true. The comments about the best pick/worst pick are hilarious to be honest.

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For those of you asking about teams starting with Gronk & Luck, a guy in my newest league 31944 just did this at 1.04 & 2.09

1.04 Gronk

2.09 A.Luck

3.04 M.Evans

4.09 A.Johnson

We're still in the 4th round so we'll see how it plays out for him.

I got Charles at 1.07 (felt like stealing)

My Team so far

1.07 J.Charles

2.06 L.McCoy

3.07 D.Hopkins

4.06 J.Matthews

If he loads up on running backs that team looks very good. I like the start of your draft except for Matthews, I am not very high on him this year.

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Since you have the stats I have lots of questions.

- Which round gives you the best EV for WR1, WR2, TE1, QB, RB2 etc?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10jOlLCMV69lceZaYggcGCWUmYaG_sLJPM8D_CInBDBk/edit?usp=sharing

Complete positional breakdown by round showing winrates, 2nd place rates and scoring average.

Added a tab that puts the player in also if you want some further detail.

Thanks - where did you get this data?

I've read a decent number of analysis on which rounds you should draft each position. I think too many people are looking at past year's results and assuming things in the NFL will break the same or even very similarly. With that said, I think it's very helpful to look at and there are clearly some strong trends to take away from analyzing past year's results.

Another thing I see is people basically unaware that it's a small market of participants driving a massive amount of the volume. Some of the best players are even creating content that a lot of the other players are reading and reacting to. As soon as a player is touted within the MFL community or even fantasy community at large, ADP's change quickly. In short, soon enough the only edge will be drafting against players who aren't reading any strategy pieces and are just purely drafting for fun. I don't think there are many of these types of players in this format.

Footballguy's MFL draft and analysis was laughably bad. I would be surprised if the the majority of those participants had ever participated in an MFL10, much less a 25, 50, or 100.

Edited by tayy16
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Since you have the stats I have lots of questions.

- Which round gives you the best EV for WR1, WR2, TE1, QB, RB2 etc?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10jOlLCMV69lceZaYggcGCWUmYaG_sLJPM8D_CInBDBk/edit?usp=sharing

Complete positional breakdown by round showing winrates, 2nd place rates and scoring average.

Added a tab that puts the player in also if you want some further detail.

Another thing I see is people basically unaware that it's a small market of participants driving a massive amount of the volume. Some of the best players are even creating content that a lot of the other players are reading and reacting to. As soon as a player is touted within the MFL community or even fantasy community at large, ADP's change quickly. In short, soon enough the only edge will be drafting against players who aren't reading any strategy pieces and are just purely drafting for fun. I don't think there are many of these types of players in this format.

While I've made this same point regarding the way analysts impact ADP through content, I somewhat disagree on your second point. While it's true that many of the people playing will have a lot of the same strategies regarding team build (3 Ds, good balance of positions, etc) there are still the components of disciplined drafting, reacting to in-draft trends or inefficiencies, and drafting value according to your own rankings. Most analysts are wrong on players just as frequently as the rest of us, so when they pump a player up and his ADP rises that doesn't mean he's necessarily a good pick, and before long he's being over drafted regardless. Basically, if you're have a pretty good handle on drafting, do a decent job of identifying values (particularly in non-hyped players), and diversify rosters across a volume of MFL 10s, I think you can still have a bit of an edge. Last year I won two of my ten MFL10s and placed second in another, not stellar but certainly good enough... If I can win even one in eight this year I'll consider it a big win, plus they're fun and put me in a great position to excel in any of my annual redraft leagues.

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Can't get out of that damn #1 or #2 slot. I've picked in the top 2 in over half of the ones I've done.

I am on my second one and I am in the 12th spot again. I hate the turn, and I really hate picking 12th. Seems very unlikely that i would do two and both would end up in the 12th spot. Curious how draft slots are generated.

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Since you have the stats I have lots of questions.

- Which round gives you the best EV for WR1, WR2, TE1, QB, RB2 etc?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10jOlLCMV69lceZaYggcGCWUmYaG_sLJPM8D_CInBDBk/edit?usp=sharing

Complete positional breakdown by round showing winrates, 2nd place rates and scoring average.

Added a tab that puts the player in also if you want some further detail.

Another thing I see is people basically unaware that it's a small market of participants driving a massive amount of the volume. Some of the best players are even creating content that a lot of the other players are reading and reacting to. As soon as a player is touted within the MFL community or even fantasy community at large, ADP's change quickly. In short, soon enough the only edge will be drafting against players who aren't reading any strategy pieces and are just purely drafting for fun. I don't think there are many of these types of players in this format.

While I've made this same point regarding the way analysts impact ADP through content, I somewhat disagree on your second point. While it's true that many of the people playing will have a lot of the same strategies regarding team build (3 Ds, good balance of positions, etc) there are still the components of disciplined drafting, reacting to in-draft trends or inefficiencies, and drafting value according to your own rankings. Most analysts are wrong on players just as frequently as the rest of us, so when they pump a player up and his ADP rises that doesn't mean he's necessarily a good pick, and before long he's being over drafted regardless. Basically, if you're have a pretty good handle on drafting, do a decent job of identifying values (particularly in non-hyped players), and diversify rosters across a volume of MFL 10s, I think you can still have a bit of an edge. Last year I won two of my ten MFL10s and placed second in another, not stellar but certainly good enough... If I can win even one in eight this year I'll consider it a big win, plus they're fun and put me in a great position to excel in any of my annual redraft leagues.

As soon as everyone approaches roster construction ~optimally, the focus will be on improving what you mentioned in your post. This stuff isn't exactly rocket science, and the edge you can get by reacting "in-draft" against other players who are also well aware that this is important is very small. Ditto to coming up with your own rankings.

I am interested to see if the best ball format will catch on with some higher stakes options. There could actually be some real money to be made if there was liquidity at say the $1k level.

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For the fun of it, I made a private MFL 10 to see if we can fill one with just people that frequent this thread. If it doesn't fill, you can always withdraw from it.

Here is the direct link. The password is "footballguys1". Hope it fills!

My suggestion would be to make your team name your footballguys handle, as it'd be fun to be able to link the team to the poster.

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For the fun of it, I made a private MFL 10 to see if we can fill one with just people that frequent this thread. If it doesn't fill, you can always withdraw from it.

Here is the direct link. The password is "footballguys1". Hope it fills!

My suggestion would be to make your team name your footballguys handle, as it'd be fun to be able to link the team to the poster.

I'm interested in joining this, but the link did not work for me.

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For the fun of it, I made a private MFL 10 to see if we can fill one with just people that frequent this thread. If it doesn't fill, you can always withdraw from it.

Here is the direct link. The password is "footballguys1". Hope it fills!

My suggestion would be to make your team name your footballguys handle, as it'd be fun to be able to link the team to the poster.

I'm interested in joining this, but the link did not work for me.

I think you can just go to the MFL 10 Public Dashboard and find the league by using the password here: http://football20.myfantasyleague.com/2015/public#0

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