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What is considered a team too like many others? The average ownership of my players is 20.7%. Would that be considered a roster of fairly common players?

More common than mine on average. What do you get when you add up all the percentages? That's another metric.

The more you have of the guys I listed on those two ultimate common lineups the more common your lineup is overall.

-QG

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It's not too soon to say I'm going to run the Calcomatic again this year 

OK, I dusted off the old live scoring site and loaded in the new rosters. When you get a chance please take a look and let me know if anything looks funny - I haven't had time this year to thoroughly

Looking to go live around August 3rd

What is considered a team too like many others? The average ownership of my players is 20.7%. Would that be considered a roster of fairly common players?

More common than mine on average. What do you get when you add up all the percentages? That's another metric.

The more you have of the guys I listed on those two ultimate common lineups the more common your lineup is overall.

-QG

580.4 but I rostered 28 players.

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The least unique team is 100856 (avg 27.18 % owned)

The most unique team is 111770 (avg 3.91 % owned)

They are both 18 player rosters.

For 30 player rosters:

least unique is 101635 (avg 20.87)

most unique is 113514 (avg 5.76)

Barely squeaking by the least unique 30 player roster for total % owned at 629.01% is team 100201, a 29er

Hello my name is BroadwayG and my midlife crisis outlet is football data.

Edited by BroadwayG
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I have no delusions that Miller will hit 20 every week or even most weeks. But you can't have delusions that Gronk will hit 34 every week or even most weeks.

The point is that you can't just compare Gronk to "TE X"'s score each week. The savings get spent on other players and those other players will add points and value to the roster, both the added TEs and the other position players. TE isn't like QB.

But those cheaper guys you add also have to outscore your other starters at that position as well.

So in this scenario, you need one of your other guys you bought instead of Gronk to outscore one of your studs at other positions by more than 14. I don't see that happening very often. So I added Gronk.

Well, you're assuming you have have 6 "studs" at RB and WR who aren't on bye and who aren't hurt.

And even with that assumption, that's just the math this week after 1/3 of my TEs have played. It will be different every other week and may be different this week.

The point is, I used the $33 Gronk cost to roster 3 TEs and whatever other players (I can't say I added any specific player with that specific $8 so it's tough to really say exactly where I spent that money) to give me 4-ish chances to improve my flex score(s) and/or my WR or RB score. The points I need to make up each week is Gronk-my best TE score. This week, right now, it's 14 points. But that's assuming that neither Ebron nor Daniels top 20. If they do, then Miller's 20 becomes the floor for my Flex 1 spot and the needed "gain" is some number less than 14.

And maybe I didn't choose my TEs wisely and there is some other combo that would have been better. At the end of the season we can look back and figure out if it was the right call to roster Gronk or not. What we can't say right now is that failing to roster Gronk was "wrong" based on exactly 4 total quarters of football played this season.

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RIP non-Gronk owners

Meh. Gronk is awesome, but at $33 he better be awesome. I managed to roster Miller, Daniels, and Ebron at TE and still have an extra $8 to spend on something like Eddie Royal and Cole Beasley.

Sure, Gronk will outscore my starting TE the vast majority of the time, if not every week but his bye. But I've added 2 viable flex options and 2 viable high-variance WRs (or some other combo of players) too.

The goal isn't to maximize TE scoring.

Agree. I got all six guys below for $33. I'm sure Gronk won week 1, but I think my six guys will hold their own even if Gronk stays healthy (big if).

$9 - Eifert - 7

$7 - V.Davis - 10

$6 - L.Green - 10

$4 - Gillmore - 9

$4 - G.Graham - 9

$3 - V.Green - 7

Funny, as I basically did the same but with receivers (adams, dorsett, Wheaton, locket, cbrown instead of Julio or Calvin) but I'd rather have Gronk and risk injury.

If I was a betting man, I would put my money on Gronk every week to out perform the highest player from this group. And in the finals, when you need huge games, no one from this group has the ceiling of Gronk. He can put up the 30+ point games....these guys don't have the talent or opportunity to do this.

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RIP non-Gronk owners

Meh. Gronk is awesome, but at $33 he better be awesome. I managed to roster Miller, Daniels, and Ebron at TE and still have an extra $8 to spend on something like Eddie Royal and Cole Beasley.

Sure, Gronk will outscore my starting TE the vast majority of the time, if not every week but his bye. But I've added 2 viable flex options and 2 viable high-variance WRs (or some other combo of players) too.

The goal isn't to maximize TE scoring.

Agree. I got all six guys below for $33. I'm sure Gronk won week 1, but I think my six guys will hold their own even if Gronk stays healthy (big if).

$9 - Eifert - 7

$7 - V.Davis - 10

$6 - L.Green - 10

$4 - Gillmore - 9

$4 - G.Graham - 9

$3 - V.Green - 7

I'd take Gronk over all of those guys easily. Do you see any of those guys capable of having a game where they get like 10 catches for 150 yards and 2 TD's for example? You are guaranteeing a solid floor, but there is a pretty limited ceiling with that group as well.

This.. in fact what the above roster accomplishes is guaranteed wasting of several dollars and roster spots. On a fluke week you might beat Gronk once, but you are hurting mid contest if you are taking points from this group as your flex.

Edited by matuski
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Agree. I got all six guys below for $33. I'm sure Gronk won week 1, but I think my six guys will hold their own even if Gronk stays healthy (big if).

$9 - Eifert - 7

$7 - V.Davis - 10

$6 - L.Green - 10

$4 - Gillmore - 9

$4 - G.Graham - 9

$3 - V.Green - 7

I'd take Gronk over all of those guys easily. Do you see any of those guys capable of having a game where they get like 10 catches for 150 yards and 2 TD's for example? You are guaranteeing a solid floor, but there is a pretty limited ceiling with that group as well.

This.. in fact what the above roster accomplishes is guaranteed wasting of several dollars and roster spots. On a fluke week you might beat Gronk once, but you are hurting mid contest if you are taking points from this group as your flex.

In general I agree, but it's way too early to count out some of those guys putting up high scores, and not just in one "fluke" week.

I think Gronk was $3 the year he broke out. Aaron Hernandez was $5 that year too, and most of the final 250 had both.

The downside of riding the $33 Gronkwave is the low tide points. You just have to hope they don't come at the end of the season.

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I have no delusions that Miller will hit 20 every week or even most weeks. But you can't have delusions that Gronk will hit 34 every week or even most weeks.

The point is that you can't just compare Gronk to "TE X"'s score each week. The savings get spent on other players and those other players will add points and value to the roster, both the added TEs and the other position players. TE isn't like QB.

But those cheaper guys you add also have to outscore your other starters at that position as well.

So in this scenario, you need one of your other guys you bought instead of Gronk to outscore one of your studs at other positions by more than 14. I don't see that happening very often. So I added Gronk.

Well, you're assuming you have have 6 "studs" at RB and WR who aren't on bye and who aren't hurt.

And even with that assumption, that's just the math this week after 1/3 of my TEs have played. It will be different every other week and may be different this week.

The point is, I used the $33 Gronk cost to roster 3 TEs and whatever other players (I can't say I added any specific player with that specific $8 so it's tough to really say exactly where I spent that money) to give me 4-ish chances to improve my flex score(s) and/or my WR or RB score. The points I need to make up each week is Gronk-my best TE score. This week, right now, it's 14 points. But that's assuming that neither Ebron nor Daniels top 20. If they do, then Miller's 20 becomes the floor for my Flex 1 spot and the needed "gain" is some number less than 14.

And maybe I didn't choose my TEs wisely and there is some other combo that would have been better. At the end of the season we can look back and figure out if it was the right call to roster Gronk or not. What we can't say right now is that failing to roster Gronk was "wrong" based on exactly 4 total quarters of football played this season.

In the end what it comes down to for me is I like the odds of some combo of guys like Stevie Johnson, Hurns, Wheaton, Royal, etc. keeping closer with a guy like Dez over guys like Daniels, R. Rodgers, Gilmore, Green, etc. keeping close to Gronk's points.

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Agree. I got all six guys below for $33. I'm sure Gronk won week 1, but I think my six guys will hold their own even if Gronk stays healthy (big if).

$9 - Eifert - 7

$7 - V.Davis - 10

$6 - L.Green - 10

$4 - Gillmore - 9

$4 - G.Graham - 9

$3 - V.Green - 7

I'd take Gronk over all of those guys easily. Do you see any of those guys capable of having a game where they get like 10 catches for 150 yards and 2 TD's for example? You are guaranteeing a solid floor, but there is a pretty limited ceiling with that group as well.

This.. in fact what the above roster accomplishes is guaranteed wasting of several dollars and roster spots. On a fluke week you might beat Gronk once, but you are hurting mid contest if you are taking points from this group as your flex.

In general I agree, but it's way too early to count out some of those guys putting up high scores, and not just in one "fluke" week.

I think Gronk was $3 the year he broke out. Aaron Hernandez was $5 that year too, and most of the final 250 had both.

The downside of riding the $33 Gronkwave is the low tide points. You just have to hope they don't come at the end of the season.

What do you think will be the low tide points for Gronk this year? If he is healthy (my only concern about Gronk, because only Gronk can stop Gronk), his floor will be around 10 points. (4 catches for 40 yards = 10 points) I don't see him getting less than this at any point this year. The upside is what we saw Thursday night. No one on that list is capable of that kind of night.

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Agree. I got all six guys below for $33. I'm sure Gronk won week 1, but I think my six guys will hold their own even if Gronk stays healthy (big if).

$9 - Eifert - 7

$7 - V.Davis - 10

$6 - L.Green - 10

$4 - Gillmore - 9

$4 - G.Graham - 9

$3 - V.Green - 7

I'd take Gronk over all of those guys easily. Do you see any of those guys capable of having a game where they get like 10 catches for 150 yards and 2 TD's for example? You are guaranteeing a solid floor, but there is a pretty limited ceiling with that group as well.

This.. in fact what the above roster accomplishes is guaranteed wasting of several dollars and roster spots. On a fluke week you might beat Gronk once, but you are hurting mid contest if you are taking points from this group as your flex.

In general I agree, but it's way too early to count out some of those guys putting up high scores, and not just in one "fluke" week.

I think Gronk was $3 the year he broke out. Aaron Hernandez was $5 that year too, and most of the final 250 had both.

The downside of riding the $33 Gronkwave is the low tide points. You just have to hope they don't come at the end of the season.

What do you think will be the low tide points for Gronk this year? If he is healthy (my only concern about Gronk, because only Gronk can stop Gronk), his floor will be around 10 points. (4 catches for 40 yards = 10 points) I don't see him getting less than this at any point this year. The upside is what we saw Thursday night. No one on that list is capable of that kind of night.

Again, I agree with your points. I'm just saying it's never decided by one player in the end, and $33 is a big investment IF those "low tide" weeks come later on.

Gronk was studly the last 3 weeks of 2014, but out of the top 10 rosters in the contest, only 1 had him and it wasn't the winner.

2014 Week 16 results:

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2014/week-16.php

Travis Kelce was the common stud TE, and I'm sure at the beginning of the season most people would have agreed that while he might turn out to be good, he won't be Gronk. He's on the Chiefs for crying out loud. :)

Edited by LittlePhatty
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I have no delusions that Miller will hit 20 every week or even most weeks. But you can't have delusions that Gronk will hit 34 every week or even most weeks.

The point is that you can't just compare Gronk to "TE X"'s score each week. The savings get spent on other players and those other players will add points and value to the roster, both the added TEs and the other position players. TE isn't like QB.

But those cheaper guys you add also have to outscore your other starters at that position as well.

So in this scenario, you need one of your other guys you bought instead of Gronk to outscore one of your studs at other positions by more than 14. I don't see that happening very often. So I added Gronk.

Well, you're assuming you have have 6 "studs" at RB and WR who aren't on bye and who aren't hurt.

And even with that assumption, that's just the math this week after 1/3 of my TEs have played. It will be different every other week and may be different this week.

The point is, I used the $33 Gronk cost to roster 3 TEs and whatever other players (I can't say I added any specific player with that specific $8 so it's tough to really say exactly where I spent that money) to give me 4-ish chances to improve my flex score(s) and/or my WR or RB score. The points I need to make up each week is Gronk-my best TE score. This week, right now, it's 14 points. But that's assuming that neither Ebron nor Daniels top 20. If they do, then Miller's 20 becomes the floor for my Flex 1 spot and the needed "gain" is some number less than 14.

And maybe I didn't choose my TEs wisely and there is some other combo that would have been better. At the end of the season we can look back and figure out if it was the right call to roster Gronk or not. What we can't say right now is that failing to roster Gronk was "wrong" based on exactly 4 total quarters of football played this season.

In the end what it comes down to for me is I like the odds of some combo of guys like Stevie Johnson, Hurns, Wheaton, Royal, etc. keeping closer with a guy like Dez over guys like Daniels, R. Rodgers, Gilmore, Green, etc. keeping close to Gronk's points.

Sure, and that may be exactly right for your roster construction. And I may be exactly right in my roster construction. I added a couple Wheaton/Royal/Beasley types with my TE savings. I'm hopeful that from time-to-time one of those guys has a big game for me. I don't need them all to hit, just one of them to hit occasionally.

Regardless, I was responding to the guys who have proclaimed that the failure to roster Gronk was some sort of fatal error because, apparently, Gronk @ $33 is the single greatest value ever seen in the history of this contest.

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If u get gronk plus 5 studs at qb/rb/wr you have to accept a roster size of 18 or 19, so i only had 4 qb/rb/wr studs and 23 on the roster. Incredibly there are 4 of us with bigben/brady/adp/dez and at least one other stud...mine being megatron.BellThat'

That's why I went with Gronk plus 4 studs at qb/rb/wr. Left room for 8 wrs and a 25 man roster.

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Plenty of cheap kickers out there with their jobs pretty much cemented down. Why take a risk on Scobee and be left hanging with possibly one kicker?

I have three kickers total - but getting the Steelers kicker for $2 seemed too good to pass up. Scobee is a veteran kicker not some rookie fee agent... seemed safe enough before he crapped the bed last night.

What's so great about the Steeler's kicker? They have a great offense so that to me means lots of extra points instead of field goals. I dont see what makes Scobee a must have player. Kicker is such a crapshoot anyway. Might as well go with someone who has had their job for a while and has some tenure. Scobee getting traded and then working his way up from third on the depth chart to starting only because of injuries should've been a red flag.

Is my short term memory failing? I thought they traded for him after the other guys got hurt.

That could be, but I still think a new guy on a team is volatile enough to avoid at a position that's so easy to find reliable, cheap options.

The Steelers tried all the available kickers when Suisam got hurt and settled for Hartley. When he got hurt they didn't even consider the other guys who had tried out, and decided they had to trade for Scobee. Add in the fact that they're now paying about $4 million to various kickers and they can't afford to drop Scobee. He's not going anywhere unless he has monumentally bad season.

Edited by apalmer
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Players that were on many of my submissions that I might regret not adding the final roster:

Frank Gore

Tony Romo

Greg Olsen

Jordan Matthews

Brandin Cooks

Player that as soon as the contest closed, I started to regret using:

Lamar Miller

Players that were on almost all my teams that I am most confident in given their price:

Ben Roethlisberger

CJ Anderson

Julio Jones

Stevie Johnson

Matt Jones

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Until the main site gets their summary stats up, here are some preliminaries:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gWKb1_S8kRI3rq1X8hcTP2y4CfQBCJ0rJ98Xa1wUse0/edit?usp=sharing

This is awesome.

Utilizing this I was able to construct what I would term the least unique team possible (that is still valid and has at least one back-up at all positions).

I only had to make these minor modifications to achieve this:

#18 owned John Brown (21.51%) and #19 owned Christine Michael (19.95%) were left off in favor of #20 owned Frank Gore (19.88%). This got the team value to exactly $250

#9 owned Markus Wheaton (32.05%) was left off in favor of #28 owned Indianapolis (18.31%)

(Alternately I suppose I could have kept Brown, Michael and Wheaton on the team and just added Indiapolis - this would yield a $248 team that had the 19 most-owned players plus the 2nd-most owned defense and then as a throw in the 94th-most owned Ryan Succop with those last $2 who is next on the owned list). I'll track both with this in mind :)

18-man version $250, 1st-8th, 10th-17th, 20th and 28th owned

Bye week in parentheses

QB - T Brady $14 (4) 32.37%

QB - S Bradford $13 (8) 33.82%

RB - CJ Anderson $27 (7) 21.82%

RB - F Gore $22 (10) 19.88%

RB - C Ivory $15 (5) 24.52%

RB - A Abdullah $14 (9) 35.72%

RB - D Martin $12 (6) 37.34%

WR - J Jones $26 (10) 36.49%

WR - B Cooks $21 (11) 27.60%

WR - J Landry $15 (5) 22.85%

WR - D Adams $9 (7) 56.64%

WR - E Royal $4 (7) 36.37%

TE - R Gronkowski $33 (4) 21.79%

TE - T Eifert $9 (7) 24.27%

PK - J Scobee $2 (11) 36.77%

PK - S Janikowski $2 (6) 31.33%

TD - Miami Dolphins $7 (5) 22.43%

TD - Indianapolis Colts $5 (10) 18.31%

----------------------------------

Version 2: 1st-19th owned, 28th owned, 94th owned

QB - T Brady $14 (4) 32.37%

QB - S Bradford $13 (8) 33.82%

RB - CJ Anderson $27 (7) 21.82%

RB - C Ivory $15 (5) 24.52%

RB - A Abdullah $14 (9) 35.72%

RB - D Martin $12 (6) 37.34%

RB - C Michael $3 (6) 19.95%

WR - J Jones $26 (10) 36.49%

WR - B Cooks $21 (11) 27.60%

WR - J Landry $15 (5) 22.85%

WR - J Brown $12 (9) 21.51%

WR - D Adams $9 (7) 56.64%

WR - M Wheaton $5 (11) 32.05%

WR - E Royal $4 (7) 36.37%

TE - R Gronkowski $33 (4) 21.79%

TE - T Eifert $9 (7) 24.27%

PK - J Scobee $2 (11) 36.77%

PK - S Janikowski $2 (6) 31.33%

PK - R Succop $2 (4) 6.87%

TD - Miami Dolphins $7 (5) 22.43%

TD - Indianapolis Colts $5 (10) 18.31%

The first version has 18 players with an average ownership of 30.0% (total 540.32%)

The second version has 21 players with an average ownership of 28.61% (total 600.82%) (If you omit Succop the average jumps to 30.30%)

My entry has 9 of these players (version 1) or 10 of these players (version 2)

Curious how other guys stack up against this. I wonder what entry has the most of these players :)

-QG

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2015/105862.php

25 man roster. Focused on value and early byes. Light at QB and heavy at TE.

542.61 total ownership percentage averages out to 21.7% per player.

Not very unique so would love to see T West, A Hurns, and P Dorsett lottery tickets hit.

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RIP non-Gronk owners

Meh. Gronk is awesome, but at $33 he better be awesome. I managed to roster Miller, Daniels, and Ebron at TE and still have an extra $8 to spend on something like Eddie Royal and Cole Beasley.

Sure, Gronk will outscore my starting TE the vast majority of the time, if not every week but his bye. But I've added 2 viable flex options and 2 viable high-variance WRs (or some other combo of players) too.

The goal isn't to maximize TE scoring.

Agree. I got all six guys below for $33. I'm sure Gronk won week 1, but I think my six guys will hold their own even if Gronk stays healthy (big if).

$9 - Eifert - 7

$7 - V.Davis - 10

$6 - L.Green - 10

$4 - Gillmore - 9

$4 - G.Graham - 9

$3 - V.Green - 7

Funny, as I basically did the same but with receivers (adams, dorsett, Wheaton, locket, cbrown instead of Julio or Calvin) but I'd rather have Gronk and risk injury.

If I was a betting man, I would put my money on Gronk every week to out perform the highest player from this group. And in the finals, when you need huge games, no one from this group has the ceiling of Gronk. He can put up the 30+ point games....these guys don't have the talent or opportunity to do this.

I used a similar TE strategy. Gronk was very reliable last season with the majority of his games scoring 15-20 points.

The TE group he has will get him those points consistently through the season.

With that said, Gronk had two (but only two) big games last year that this group can't replicate. On the other hand, this group will also be able to help out with flex scores and will minimize risks of injury and bye weeks.

Gronk only had two 30+ point games last season. If you want to increase your monster games you should focus on wr's.

If you think Gronk will have a record breaking season than he is the obvious choice. If you think he will have a season similar to last year, I think a group of lesser TD's is the better option.

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RIP non-Gronk owners

Meh. Gronk is awesome, but at $33 he better be awesome. I managed to roster Miller, Daniels, and Ebron at TE and still have an extra $8 to spend on something like Eddie Royal and Cole Beasley.

Sure, Gronk will outscore my starting TE the vast majority of the time, if not every week but his bye. But I've added 2 viable flex options and 2 viable high-variance WRs (or some other combo of players) too.

The goal isn't to maximize TE scoring.

Agree. I got all six guys below for $33. I'm sure Gronk won week 1, but I think my six guys will hold their own even if Gronk stays healthy (big if).

$9 - Eifert - 7

$7 - V.Davis - 10

$6 - L.Green - 10

$4 - Gillmore - 9

$4 - G.Graham - 9

$3 - V.Green - 7

Funny, as I basically did the same but with receivers (adams, dorsett, Wheaton, locket, cbrown instead of Julio or Calvin) but I'd rather have Gronk and risk injury.

If I was a betting man, I would put my money on Gronk every week to out perform the highest player from this group. And in the finals, when you need huge games, no one from this group has the ceiling of Gronk. He can put up the 30+ point games....these guys don't have the talent or opportunity to do this.

I used a similar TE strategy. Gronk was very reliable last season with the majority of his games scoring 15-20 points.

The TE group he has will get him those points consistently through the season.

With that said, Gronk had two (but only two) big games last year that this group can't replicate. On the other hand, this group will also be able to help out with flex scores and will minimize risks of injury and bye weeks.

Gronk only had two 30+ point games last season. If you want to increase your monster games you should focus on wr's.

If you think Gronk will have a record breaking season than he is the obvious choice. If you think he will have a season similar to last year, I think a group of lesser TD's is the better option.

Only problem is that you have to spend your money somewhere. I saw so much value at WR that I figured my flex would come from that position.

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For those pounding the desk on 'Gronk or nothing'... He basically scored 20% of his projected 2015 TD output in 1/16 games (6.25% of his games). He could be the greatest player in all of FF this year and score 1,000 points but if he has a down week at the wrong time (and he will have down weeks) and you miss a cut, none of the other great games matter. This contest has a considerable amount of luck and total points only matter for the final 3 weeks.

The winner will be the team that accumulates the most total points in these 3 weeks (weeks 14-16). All 250 teams that advance to the final will have their scores reset so only the results from weeks 14 through 16 will count.

So yeah. Congrats on having Gronk. I don't have him in this contest but I do in some big money leagues. I'm rooting for him big time this season. However, there are several ways to cook an egg, so I don't regret avoiding Gronk in this one. I found better values at TE and used my money elsewhere.

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For those pounding the desk on 'Gronk or nothing'... He basically scored 20% of his projected 2015 TD output in 1/16 games (6.25% of his games). He could be the greatest player in all of FF this year and score 1,000 points but if he has a down week at the wrong time (and he will have down weeks) and you miss a cut, none of the other great games matter. This contest has a considerable amount of luck and total points only matter for the final 3 weeks.

The winner will be the team that accumulates the most total points in these 3 weeks (weeks 14-16). All 250 teams that advance to the final will have their scores reset so only the results from weeks 14 through 16 will count.

So yeah. Congrats on having Gronk. I don't have him in this contest but I do in some big money leagues. I'm rooting for him big time this season. However, there are several ways to cook an egg, so I don't regret avoiding Gronk in this one. I found better values at TE and used my money elsewhere.

Well said....I agree with almost everything you said. I agree that he used up 20% of his pre-season projected output, but I don't think that means very much. To me, it just means that the pre-season projections are not going to be high enough. Gronk isn't going to have games like that every week, but just because he had a huge week 1 game doesn't mean the rest of his games are going to be lower because he already used up those points.

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I think what the non-Gronk owners are focused on is getting to the finals. And that journey is where the weekly variance could/will trip up most of the Gronk owners.

But, I think the counter to that is Gronk is very likely to be the high scorer over the last 3 weeks, where the cumulative total matters. So, having Gronk is likely to be critical to the winner - more so than a hodgepodge of second/third tier TEs. Now, those teams will have to have dodged a number of bullets with their other picks, but the Gronk teams that do that have a better chance of winning than the non-Gronk teams. Imo.

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I think what the non-Gronk owners are focused on is getting to the finals. And that journey is where the weekly variance could/will trip up most of the Gronk owners.

But, I think the counter to that is Gronk is very likely to be the high scorer over the last 3 weeks, where the cumulative total matters. So, having Gronk is likely to be critical to the winner - more so than a hodgepodge of second/third tier TEs. Now, those teams will have to have dodged a number of bullets with their other picks, but the Gronk teams that do that have a better chance of winning than the non-Gronk teams. Imo.

Not picking gronk doesn't mean you are opting for 1 less stud on your roster. Most of the non-gronk users have chosen to spend that extra money on a stud at another position. For me, I decided to go with L Bell over Gronk. Either way I was using those $33 on a stud.

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I think what the non-Gronk owners are focused on is getting to the finals. And that journey is where the weekly variance could/will trip up most of the Gronk owners.

But, I think the counter to that is Gronk is very likely to be the high scorer over the last 3 weeks, where the cumulative total matters. So, having Gronk is likely to be critical to the winner - more so than a hodgepodge of second/third tier TEs. Now, those teams will have to have dodged a number of bullets with their other picks, but the Gronk teams that do that have a better chance of winning than the non-Gronk teams. Imo.

Not picking gronk doesn't mean you are opting for 1 less stud on your roster. Most of the non-gronk users have chosen to spend that extra money on a stud at another position. For me, I decided to go with L Bell over Gronk. Either way I was using those $33 on a stud.

Only problem with spending it at RB is the return on investment isn't as good. Obviously you need a stud RB performance to win. I can see Bell over Gronk in many situations, but anyone passing on Gronk or WR for flex points from the RB position is making a mistake.

If it was strictly an either or situation, FBGs has Gronk projected for more ppr and he obviously has the early bye week.

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My team with logic.

Summary - After having a 28-30 man roster since the first day this contest opened up, just this week, I switched to a 20 man with more studs and less lottery tickets. I also believe I've found some of the better values of the contest. So my team is a mix of guys I had to have and guys who were simply valued to low to ignore.

QB - Tom Brady - NE/4 - $14
QB - Sam Bradford - PHI/8 - $13

Brady - is an elite at the position with immense value so he was the biggest no brainer of the contest, imo.

Bradford - will be QBing the most potent offense in the NFL. I'm betting on him to stay healthy, obviously. Guys like Eli and Rivers were good values too but I think Bradford has a higher ceiling in many ways and his schedule is favorable. I think people forget that he was a 1.01 NFL draft pick and was on a top 7 pace before getting injured last.

RB - Eddie Lacy - GB/7 - $32
RB - Alfred Morris - WAS/8 - $22
RB - Mark Ingram - NO/11 - $20
RB - Ameer Abdullah - DET/9 - $14
RB - Doug Martin - TB/6 - $12
RB - Branden Oliver - SD/10 - $3

Lacy - I viewed him as the surest RB to be top 5. He's hitting his 3rd season and has yet to have a career year. Arrow is only pointing up and with Rodgers and that offense, he's in a prime position to have a career year.

Morris - one of the easiest schedules for RBs and is consistently maddening in most redrafts, thankfully this is best ball. Morris will have 4-6 games that are starter-worthy with the upside of more, imo.

Ingram - I believe. This dude put up some BIG games last season and if you've been paying attention this summer, Brees has sort of shunned the Spiller hype and deflects to the receiving abilities of Ingram. Ingram has a great chance of being top 10 RB in 2015.

AA - I've said enough in other threads. I'm a huge fan and think he makes an immediate impact (like this Sunday) and never looks back. I'm heavily invested in this dude.

Dougie Fresh - I love me the upside of dougie this season. $12 for already-done-it-once RB1 (potentially)? I'll take that value all day! Another easy schedule here too. If he continues what he did in the preseason, this may be the best bargain RB in the contest.

Oliver - I love this dude. Bought him everywhere last season only to be let down. But I still trust my eyes on this guy and he's legit. I saw nothing from Gordon that excited me in the preseason. I know.... preseason. Preseason is undervalued by many.

WR - Julio Jones - ATL/10 - $26

WR - Brandin Cooks - NO/11 - $21
WR - Jordan Matthews - PHI/8 - $21
WR - Kendall Wright - TEN/4 - $13
WR - John Brown - ARI/9 - $12

Julio - my top rated WR this season. Great schedule, in his absolute prime with an O coordinator known for featuring his #1 WR. Matt Ryan also hitting his prime and I suspect he'll start putting up 30+ TDs consistently for the next 5+ seasons and I think that starts this season. Julio is going to be a MONSTER this season.

Brandin Cooks/Jordan Matthews - Grouping these guys because this is simply a hedge play for me, tbh. I'm in 23 leagues this season and I only own Matthews in 1 dynasty league. I own Cooks in zero leagues. In redrafts, I'm still lukewarm, on Cooks especially, this season. But since I'm only targeting a handful of WRs in all my leagues, this was an opportunity to mix it up. Looking at the other rosters in here, I'm glad I mixed it up. I'm not seeing a lot of Cooks/Matthews combos.

Kendall Wright - great value play this season. #1 WR with a rookie who will need to find comfort with A guy. Wright has been a very solid player for his first 3 seasons and that's with shaky QB play. I think he matches his 2013 yardage with his 2014 TDs this season which is 1100/6-8 TD range. In best ball for $13, I'll take that and not think twice.

John Brown - Huge upside. I think this guy might just explode this season. I'm not drafting him in redrafts but in best ball, he's the perfect WR to take a chance on. He might be the best WR on the cards. No joke.

TE - Tyler Eifert - CIN/7 - $9
TE - Ben Watson - NO/11 - $3
TE - Scott Chandler - NE/4 - $3

Eifert- if he stays healthy, I think he's a virtual lock for top 7 production. Cindy seems to have that model 1/1/1 elite in RB/WR/TE. Eifert was a 1.20 pick in the real NFL draft and has had some injuries. His rookie numbers for a TE are very good and last year he didn't even last a full quarter but in that <1 qtr, he had 3/37 or something close to that.

Watson/Chandler - I think these 2 guys could both have 500/6 type seasons. Paired with Eifert - who I think is top 7 - I think I really got a lot of bang for my buck at TE. Spending $15 with the potential of having a top 7 and 2 extra guys ping-ponging startable games for me.

PK - Sebastian Janikowski - OAK/6 - $2

PK - Josh Scobee - PIT/11 - $2
TD - Minnesota Vikings - MIN/5 - $5
TD - Atlanta Falcons - ATL/10 - $3

I'm not gonna write much on PK and DEF other than... I've been buying MIN defense in ALL leagues this year. Most under-the-radar position in all of FF if you ask me. I think I counted 10 games last season - without their stud RB and with a rookie QB and relative unknowns at WR - where the Queens held their opponents to 20 points or less. Granted, some of those were losses but still. I was floored when I discovered that. If you look at what they've done in the preseason, I think you'll see a similar pattern. Add Stefon Diggs/Cordarrelle Patterson returning kicks. I don't know, maybe I'm crazy but I think MIN finishes top 5 DEF this season.

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I think what the non-Gronk owners are focused on is getting to the finals. And that journey is where the weekly variance could/will trip up most of the Gronk owners.

But, I think the counter to that is Gronk is very likely to be the high scorer over the last 3 weeks, where the cumulative total matters. So, having Gronk is likely to be critical to the winner - more so than a hodgepodge of second/third tier TEs. Now, those teams will have to have dodged a number of bullets with their other picks, but the Gronk teams that do that have a better chance of winning than the non-Gronk teams. Imo.

Not picking gronk doesn't mean you are opting for 1 less stud on your roster. Most of the non-gronk users have chosen to spend that extra money on a stud at another position. For me, I decided to go with L Bell over Gronk. Either way I was using those $33 on a stud.

Only problem with spending it at RB is the return on investment isn't as good. Obviously you need a stud RB performance to win. I can see Bell over Gronk in many situations, but anyone passing on Gronk or WR for flex points from the RB position is making a mistake.

If it was strictly an either or situation, FBGs has Gronk projected for more ppr and he obviously has the early bye week.

Sorry I typed a long reply to this and lost it.

Dodds has gronk scoring 0.7 ppg more than bell in 1.5 te ppr

I agree te and wr are better values than rb. I went with bell so I wouldn't have to roster mid rbs that I would be counting on to help at my flex spot. Going stud rb heavy allows me to add multiple te's and wr's that would give me more games with wr's and te's counting at my flex spots.

I agree, I just approached it in a different way.

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I think what the non-Gronk owners are focused on is getting to the finals. And that journey is where the weekly variance could/will trip up most of the Gronk owners.

But, I think the counter to that is Gronk is very likely to be the high scorer over the last 3 weeks, where the cumulative total matters. So, having Gronk is likely to be critical to the winner - more so than a hodgepodge of second/third tier TEs. Now, those teams will have to have dodged a number of bullets with their other picks, but the Gronk teams that do that have a better chance of winning than the non-Gronk teams. Imo.

Not picking gronk doesn't mean you are opting for 1 less stud on your roster. Most of the non-gronk users have chosen to spend that extra money on a stud at another position. For me, I decided to go with L Bell over Gronk. Either way I was using those $33 on a stud.
Hmm who to pick over Gronk.... Well pick one of my RB's....

Bell

Peterson

Charles

Ivory/Martin combo

Any of your 2 RB's Capable of their output? Should be able to flex min one RB each week and I still was able to take 6 WR (1stud, 1mid, 4flier) and TE 3 high upside fliers.

The bonus is if any player goes down its not catastrophic and all could put up big totals in the finals.

Never made the money but have made, final cut, week 11 and a bunch of week 8-10's.

Edited by Foxer2373
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Until the main site gets their summary stats up, here are some preliminaries:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gWKb1_S8kRI3rq1X8hcTP2y4CfQBCJ0rJ98Xa1wUse0/edit?usp=sharing

This is pretty great.

In addition to seeing individual players, we can use it to crunch some numbers on typical roster construction. For example, here is the average number of players & spending by position

QB: 2.8, $33.6

RB: 5.1, $82.5

WR: 6.2, $82.8

TE: 2.5, $29.9

PK: 2.3, $8.2

TD: 2.2, $12.9

tot: 21.2, $249.8

We can also break players down into price ranges, let's say cheap ($2-5), lowish ($6-10), medium ($11-17), highish ($18-24), and expensive ($25+). Here's how many players people rostered in each category, on average:

$02-$05: 6.7 (0.5 QB, 0.7 RB, 1.8 WR, 0.6 TE, 2.0 PK, 1.2 TD)

$06-$10: 4.7 (0.6 QB, 0.7 RB, 1.2 WR, 0.9 TE, 0.3 PK, 0.9 TD)

$11-$17: 4.6 (1.3 QB, 1.5 RB, 1.2 WR, 0.5 TE, 0.0 PK, 0.1 TD)

$18-$24: 2.6 (0.2 QB, 0.9 RB, 1.1 WR, 0.4 TE, 0.0 PK, 0.0 TD)

$25-$33: 2.5 (0.2 QB, 1.2 RB, 0.9 WR, 0.2 TE, 0.0 PK, 0.0 TD)

My roster is built pretty differently:

$02-$05: 18 (1 QB, 0 RB, 6 WR, 3 TE, 4 PK, 4 TD)

$06-$10: 4 (1 QB, 0 RB, 1 WR, 2 TE, 0 PK, 0 TD)

$11-$17: 2 (1 QB, 1 RB, 0 WR, 0 TE, 0 PK, 0 TD)

$18-$24: 0 (0 QB, 0 RB, 0 WR, 0 TE, 0 PK, 0 TD)

$25-$33: 5 (0 QB, 3 RB, 2 WR, 0 TE, 0 PK, 0 TD)

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I think what the non-Gronk owners are focused on is getting to the finals. And that journey is where the weekly variance could/will trip up most of the Gronk owners.

But, I think the counter to that is Gronk is very likely to be the high scorer over the last 3 weeks, where the cumulative total matters. So, having Gronk is likely to be critical to the winner - more so than a hodgepodge of second/third tier TEs. Now, those teams will have to have dodged a number of bullets with their other picks, but the Gronk teams that do that have a better chance of winning than the non-Gronk teams. Imo.

Not picking gronk doesn't mean you are opting for 1 less stud on your roster. Most of the non-gronk users have chosen to spend that extra money on a stud at another position. For me, I decided to go with L Bell over Gronk. Either way I was using those $33 on a stud.
Hmm who to pick over Gronk.... Well pick one of my RB's....

Bell

Peterson

Charles

Ivory/Martin combo

Any of your 2 RB's Capable of their output? Should be able to flex min one RB each week and I still was able to take 6 WR (1stud, 1mid, 4flier) and TE 3 high upside fliers.

The bonus is if any player goes down its not catastrophic and all could put up big totals in the finals.

Never made the money but have made, final cut, week 11 and a bunch of week 8-10's.

:shrug: How about Bell, Anderson, AA, Martin and Gronk? Oh, and I was still able to have 8 WRs, including Julio and a couple TE fliers (Eifert/Watson). Just because you spend on Gronk doesn't mean you can't spend elsewhere, too.

From someone who has made the money.

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Just for fun, I checked these...

Jordy Nelson Total Teams 95

Kelvin Benjamin 23

Brandon LaFell 77

Garret Hartley 736

Shaun Suisham 206

Kendal Hunter 43

Brian Quick 988

Logan Paulsen 17

Niles Paul 90

Those are just some names off the top of my head, and granted a large portion of it is Kickers, but there are a large percentage of teams with some dead weight on their rosters already.

Unless Quick suffered a season ending injury I'm not aware of, he doesn't seem to fit the profile of the other names listed here. I understand he is coming back from a serious injury, and maybe you aren't a believer and have counted him out already, but his inclusion with this group puzzled me.

Edited by J Giles Band
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My team with logic.

Summary - After having a 28-30 man roster since the first day this contest opened up, just this week, I switched to a 20 man with more studs and less lottery tickets. I also believe I've found some of the better values of the contest. So my team is a mix of guys I had to have and guys who were simply valued to low to ignore.

QB - Tom Brady - NE/4 - $14

QB - Sam Bradford - PHI/8 - $13

Brady - is an elite at the position with immense value so he was the biggest no brainer of the contest, imo.

Bradford - will be QBing the most potent offense in the NFL. I'm betting on him to stay healthy, obviously. Guys like Eli and Rivers were good values too but I think Bradford has a higher ceiling in many ways and his schedule is favorable. I think people forget that he was a 1.01 NFL draft pick and was on a top 7 pace before getting injured last.

RB - Eddie Lacy - GB/7 - $32

RB - Alfred Morris - WAS/8 - $22

RB - Mark Ingram - NO/11 - $20

RB - Ameer Abdullah - DET/9 - $14

RB - Doug Martin - TB/6 - $12

RB - Branden Oliver - SD/10 - $3

Lacy - I viewed him as the surest RB to be top 5. He's hitting his 3rd season and has yet to have a career year. Arrow is only pointing up and with Rodgers and that offense, he's in a prime position to have a career year.

Morris - one of the easiest schedules for RBs and is consistently maddening in most redrafts, thankfully this is best ball. Morris will have 4-6 games that are starter-worthy with the upside of more, imo.

Ingram - I believe. This dude put up some BIG games last season and if you've been paying attention this summer, Brees has sort of shunned the Spiller hype and deflects to the receiving abilities of Ingram. Ingram has a great chance of being top 10 RB in 2015.

AA - I've said enough in other threads. I'm a huge fan and think he makes an immediate impact (like this Sunday) and never looks back. I'm heavily invested in this dude.

Dougie Fresh - I love me the upside of dougie this season. $12 for already-done-it-once RB1 (potentially)? I'll take that value all day! Another easy schedule here too. If he continues what he did in the preseason, this may be the best bargain RB in the contest.

Oliver - I love this dude. Bought him everywhere last season only to be let down. But I still trust my eyes on this guy and he's legit. I saw nothing from Gordon that excited me in the preseason. I know.... preseason. Preseason is undervalued by many.

WR - Julio Jones - ATL/10 - $26

WR - Brandin Cooks - NO/11 - $21

WR - Jordan Matthews - PHI/8 - $21

WR - Kendall Wright - TEN/4 - $13

WR - John Brown - ARI/9 - $12

Julio - my top rated WR this season. Great schedule, in his absolute prime with an O coordinator known for featuring his #1 WR. Matt Ryan also hitting his prime and I suspect he'll start putting up 30+ TDs consistently for the next 5+ seasons and I think that starts this season. Julio is going to be a MONSTER this season.

Brandin Cooks/Jordan Matthews - Grouping these guys because this is simply a hedge play for me, tbh. I'm in 23 leagues this season and I only own Matthews in 1 dynasty league. I own Cooks in zero leagues. In redrafts, I'm still lukewarm, on Cooks especially, this season. But since I'm only targeting a handful of WRs in all my leagues, this was an opportunity to mix it up. Looking at the other rosters in here, I'm glad I mixed it up. I'm not seeing a lot of Cooks/Matthews combos.

Kendall Wright - great value play this season. #1 WR with a rookie who will need to find comfort with A guy. Wright has been a very solid player for his first 3 seasons and that's with shaky QB play. I think he matches his 2013 yardage with his 2014 TDs this season which is 1100/6-8 TD range. In best ball for $13, I'll take that and not think twice.

John Brown - Huge upside. I think this guy might just explode this season. I'm not drafting him in redrafts but in best ball, he's the perfect WR to take a chance on. He might be the best WR on the cards. No joke.

TE - Tyler Eifert - CIN/7 - $9

TE - Ben Watson - NO/11 - $3

TE - Scott Chandler - NE/4 - $3

Eifert- if he stays healthy, I think he's a virtual lock for top 7 production. Cindy seems to have that model 1/1/1 elite in RB/WR/TE. Eifert was a 1.20 pick in the real NFL draft and has had some injuries. His rookie numbers for a TE are very good and last year he didn't even last a full quarter but in that <1 qtr, he had 3/37 or something close to that.

Watson/Chandler - I think these 2 guys could both have 500/6 type seasons. Paired with Eifert - who I think is top 7 - I think I really got a lot of bang for my buck at TE. Spending $15 with the potential of having a top 7 and 2 extra guys ping-ponging startable games for me.

PK - Sebastian Janikowski - OAK/6 - $2

PK - Josh Scobee - PIT/11 - $2

TD - Minnesota Vikings - MIN/5 - $5

TD - Atlanta Falcons - ATL/10 - $3

I'm not gonna write much on PK and DEF other than... I've been buying MIN defense in ALL leagues this year. Most under-the-radar position in all of FF if you ask me. I think I counted 10 games last season - without their stud RB and with a rookie QB and relative unknowns at WR - where the Queens held their opponents to 20 points or less. Granted, some of those were losses but still. I was floored when I discovered that. If you look at what they've done in the preseason, I think you'll see a similar pattern. Add Stefon Diggs/Cordarrelle Patterson returning kicks. I don't know, maybe I'm crazy but I think MIN finishes top 5 DEF this season.

IMO you spent a little too much on RB. You've got at least $15 in dead money each week at that position. Maybe more if you pull a flex from WR. While I like Eifert, You could have dumped one of the RBs to up your TE score. You could have also spent the money on an add'l D and K which might have help your overall score.

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OK, I dusted off the old live scoring site and loaded in the new rosters. When you get a chance please take a look and let me know if anything looks funny - I haven't had time this year to thoroughly review all the code I wrote last year, I think I updated everything I needed to but I wouldn't be surprised at all if I've forgotten something. (Also, check your team and make sure your roster is correct - I copied them straight from the source but it would be good to make sure.)

Also make sure you create a profile (or login if you still have one from last year) and link your team(s) to your profile for easy tracking during the season.

http://o.ffense.com/fbg35k/index.php

Edited by Ignoratio Elenchi
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Since I've commented on others, I'll put mine out there for critique.

Tom Brady $14
Carson Palmer $8
Kirk Cousins $3

Went cheaper here because I see Brady as a $20-$25 value player. If Palmer can stay healthy he should produce well with all the weapons he has. I'm not a fan of 3 QBs as it's generally a waste if you pick the first two correctly, but the cheap starters were too good to resist.

C.J. Anderson $27
Ameer Abdullah $14
Doug Martin $12
Matt Jones $7
Cameron Artis-Payne $4
Christine Michael $3

Since RB is the most expensive position on a $/pt basis, I try to limit my spending here. My goal here is to find two good weekly scores as cheaply as possible. Bell was on my roster from day one until the last day. Eventually switched to CJ as Bell's week 11 bye became worrisome. This also allowed me $5 to spend elsewhere. I like many others feel confident about Martin and Ameer. My 2nd RB score should come from these two. Jones is a bye week fill in to hopefully keep me above a cut line. Payne and Michael lottery tickets for late in the year if I make the final 250.

Julio Jones $26
Brandin Cooks $21
Davante Adams $9
Allen Hurns $6
Devin Funchess $5
Markus Wheaton $5
Eddie Royal $4
Tyler Lockett $3
Danny Amendola $3
Corey Brown $2

Got my two studs in Julio and Cooks. I'm a little concern about Cooks getting enough TDs but he'll have huge recpt and yardage numbers. Adams should produce like a WR1 about 6-8 weeks. After that I loaded up on all the under valued guys. With 10 WRs I should be able to find 3-4 good scores each week.

Rob Gronkowski $33
Greg Olsen $21

I was back and forth between Gronk/Graham/Olsen since day 1. Probably should have rostered all three. Not only will I have a really good TE score most weeks, I should be able to get a flex score here.


Sebastian Janikowski $2
Kai Forbath $2
Josh Scobee $2
Ryan Succop $2

Normally I take 3 but with all the values at WR I ended up with money leftover. Maybe that extra guys kicks 5 fgs in the finals if I'm lucky enough to make it.

Washington Redskins $3
New Orleans Saints $3
Tennessee Titans $3
Chicago Bears $3

Pretty much repeat what I said for kicker. TDs are the driver here and they are almost random. I'll have three D's going each week and one extra lottery ticket in the finals. Guarantee that these four outscore any $12 defense

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OK, I dusted off the old live scoring site and loaded in the new rosters. When you get a chance please take a look and let me know if anything looks funny - I haven't had time this year to thoroughly review all the code I wrote last year, I think I updated everything I needed to but I wouldn't be surprised at all if I've forgotten something. (Also, check your team and make sure your roster is correct - I copied them straight from the source but it would be good to make sure.)

Also make sure you create a profile (or login if you still have one from last year) and link your team(s) to your profile for easy tracking during the season.

http://o.ffense.com/fbg35k/index.php

Thanks for doing this again. There are going to be some huge scores posted this week.

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OK, I dusted off the old live scoring site and loaded in the new rosters. When you get a chance please take a look and let me know if anything looks funny - I haven't had time this year to thoroughly review all the code I wrote last year, I think I updated everything I needed to but I wouldn't be surprised at all if I've forgotten something. (Also, check your team and make sure your roster is correct - I copied them straight from the source but it would be good to make sure.)

Also make sure you create a profile (or login if you still have one from last year) and link your team(s) to your profile for easy tracking during the season.

http://o.ffense.com/fbg35k/index.php

Awesome TY. I currently sit just inside the top 10000. :)

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OK, I dusted off the old live scoring site and loaded in the new rosters. When you get a chance please take a look and let me know if anything looks funny - I haven't had time this year to thoroughly review all the code I wrote last year, I think I updated everything I needed to but I wouldn't be surprised at all if I've forgotten something. (Also, check your team and make sure your roster is correct - I copied them straight from the source but it would be good to make sure.)

Also make sure you create a profile (or login if you still have one from last year) and link your team(s) to your profile for easy tracking during the season.

http://o.ffense.com/fbg35k/index.php

Awesome TY. I currently sit just inside the top 10000. :)

:lol:

Just outside the top 3000 here.

I'll assume 51 points is enough for this week

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