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WR Tyrell Williams, DET - 9.22.21 - Concussion - Unlikely To Play Week 3 (1 Viewer)

Expanding on my previous post a bit. 

Here are Tyrell's current ranks among WRs:
#29T in receptions
#31T in receiving TDs (more on this below)
#11 in receiving yards
#15 in receiving yards per game
#6T in 20+ yard receptions
#6T in 40+ yard receptions
#23T in first down receptions
#24 in first down percentage
#9 in DYAR
#8 in DVOA
#17 in overall PFF grade

Using one of my PPR dynasty leagues as a proxy, he is currently ranked #19 in total points and #28 in ppg.

All of this is despite the fact that he is still raw and not close to reaching his ceiling. I have seen Rivers correct him a few times for not running his route properly, including once where he would have had a TD had he done so. He also ran a poor fade route once where with a better route he would have had a TD.

Speaking of TDs, he only has 2, but he is tied for 3rd in red zone targets with 11, and he has caught 8 of them for 44 yards and 3 first downs, but no TDs. It seems inevitable that he will convert some of these.

He obviously has elite physical tools, so it is simply a matter of polishing his route running and improving his understanding of the position and chemistry with Rivers. All of that should come with more reps, which he will definitely get the rest of this season, with Allen and Stevie out.

The key dynasty question is likely what his outlook is for the next few years. On that:

- He is under contract to SD through 2017 but would still be a RFA at that point. My guess is they will sign/extend him for at least a few more years.
- Rivers is under contract through 2020 and seems a bit less likely to decline than other older QBs because he has been so durable and he doesn't run or rely upon athleticism.
- Future coaching staff is unknown, since McCoy might be in the process of saving his job. Regardless, I can't see any staff purposely reducing his role.
- So it comes down to the other WRs. Going into next season, I see Allen as the WR1 (assuming he is healthy), Tyrell as WR2, Benjamin as WR3, and Inman as WR4. Henry will be TE1 and Gordon RB1. Hard to judge if they will bring Woodhead back, but I suspect they might do so, since he would likely come at a reasonable price. (I think Stevie will not be back.) That is a lot of competition for targets, but I would expect Williams to see ~100 targets, which is roughly equivalent to what he is averaging this season (~6.4 per game).

The competition for targets is the only negative and likely the only thing that will keep him out of the top 20 fantasy WRs. But I see him as a top 30 dynasty WR right now.

:football:  

 
JFS171 said:
Has anyone explored selling?  Don't get me wrong, the kid's got talent... but Allen will be the top dog when he returns next year, assuming health.  The TE will still be a factor with Henry proving his mettle.  They seem to want to run Melvin Gordon into the ground.

It *feels* to me like his share of the pie is at its plausible peak for the next few years, but perhaps I'm off in that assessment.
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His value isn't high enough yet to owners in my leagues,  but I agree.   The problem seems to be that rebuilding teams aren't sold on him more than they are random draft picks who we haven't seen play... even the guys sitting on Laquan Treadwell who they picked at 1.02...  It's funny how much stock fantasy owners put in NFL Draft position. 

 
Just Win Baby said:
Expanding on my previous post a bit. 

Here are Tyrell's current ranks among WRs:
#29T in receptions
#31T in receiving TDs (more on this below)
#11 in receiving yards
#15 in receiving yards per game
#6T in 20+ yard receptions
#6T in 40+ yard receptions
#23T in first down receptions
#24 in first down percentage
#9 in DYAR
#8 in DVOA
#17 in overall PFF grade

Using one of my PPR dynasty leagues as a proxy, he is currently ranked #19 in total points and #28 in ppg.

All of this is despite the fact that he is still raw and not close to reaching his ceiling. I have seen Rivers correct him a few times for not running his route properly, including once where he would have had a TD had he done so. He also ran a poor fade route once where with a better route he would have had a TD.

Speaking of TDs, he only has 2, but he is tied for 3rd in red zone targets with 11, and he has caught 8 of them for 44 yards and 3 first downs, but no TDs. It seems inevitable that he will convert some of these.

He obviously has elite physical tools, so it is simply a matter of polishing his route running and improving his understanding of the position and chemistry with Rivers. All of that should come with more reps, which he will definitely get the rest of this season, with Allen and Stevie out.

The key dynasty question is likely what his outlook is for the next few years. On that:

- He is under contract to SD through 2017 but would still be a RFA at that point. My guess is they will sign/extend him for at least a few more years.
- Rivers is under contract through 2020 and seems a bit less likely to decline than other older QBs because he has been so durable and he doesn't run or rely upon athleticism.
- Future coaching staff is unknown, since McCoy might be in the process of saving his job. Regardless, I can't see any staff purposely reducing his role.
- So it comes down to the other WRs. Going into next season, I see Allen as the WR1 (assuming he is healthy), Tyrell as WR2, Benjamin as WR3, and Inman as WR4. Henry will be TE1 and Gordon RB1. Hard to judge if they will bring Woodhead back, but I suspect they might do so, since he would likely come at a reasonable price. (I think Stevie will not be back.) That is a lot of competition for targets, but I would expect Williams to see ~100 targets, which is roughly equivalent to what he is averaging this season (~6.4 per game).

The competition for targets is the only negative and likely the only thing that will keep him out of the top 20 fantasy WRs. But I see him as a top 30 dynasty WR right now.

:football:  
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Good post. I'd say for dynasty I'd be super happy to hang on to him indefinitely as his opps will most likely get better than next year over time and he has the skill to be a #1 on most teams. I'd say his value in keeper leagues is as the 4th or 5th keeper on a typical team. If you have a keeper rule where you drafted him late and only give up that round then he is gold.

 
Picked him up early in the season (after Allen's injury) dropped him just a couple weeks after that. Wish I had the space to keep him, he looks like he's only getting better. Wouldn't have the courage to start him over the guys I have, but I play against him this week and I'm not too happy about that. 

 
Just Win Baby said:
He is #12 in receiving yards, #7 in qualifiers for YPC, and #9 in YAC. He's on pace for 1202 receiving yards, which would be the most for any Chargers WR since 1995.

And all this despite the fact that he is still a bit raw. He isn't close to his ceiling yet.

This Chargers passing offense is going to be unstoppable next season if Allen is back healthy and they decide to re-sign Woodhead. How does an opposing defense defend Allen, Williams, Benjamin, Henry, and Woodhead all at the same time? Not possible.
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As the resident Chargers guy here, where do you see him next year once Allen comes back? Does Benjamin get moved to the slot or something? Do they just rotate Ty and Travis opposite Allen? Benjamin wouldn't likely become full time slot, would he?

 
ShamrockPride said:
As the resident Chargers guy here, where do you see him next year once Allen comes back? Does Benjamin get moved to the slot or something? Do they just rotate Ty and Travis opposite Allen? Benjamin wouldn't likely become full time slot, would he?
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See my later post. I think Allen would lead in snaps, followed by Williams, Benjamin, and Inman in that order. I would expect all of them to get snaps in the slot, but probably more snaps there for Allen than in the past. I could see ~100 targets for Williams.

 
I wouldn't start him this week if you have anything else but it only takes one play with players like this. He scored an 80 yard TD on Denver last year. 

 
I think if you can get by with some bye week #'s and the rest of your team is solid, you'll be okay. Easier in PPRs, but I think maybe 3/4 catches for 40-50 yards, get out with maybe 8-10 points is a decent week here.

 
If you don't own him, buy now.  

Game flow today hurt him as the chargers o looked great but the d scored twice and gates got his 4th td of the 8 he needs for the record.  Williams still got 6/65/1.  

Also hurting him - in 2 games against the broncos he had 4 catches for 32.  Combined.  And those were both in the last month.

In his other 7 games, Williams has 34/563/3, an average of 5/80/.4 per game.  Williams should end up somewhere in the 70/1150/6 range and possibly better than that.  

He looks like a good trade target right now because his price may be down and his performance may be going up.

1) His owner might be down because he's only put up 7/69/1 the last 2 weeks and 17/237/1 in his last 4 weeks.  But that's made up of a 7/140 and a 6/65/1, and two games against denver. He also had a 5/117/1 the week before that.  which means in his last 3 non denver games he has 18 catches for 322 yards and 2 tds.  That's obviously not a sustainable pace - those are his 3 best games of the season - but it paints a much different picture than his weak performances against the Broncos.  

2) In his last 3 good match ups he had his 3 best games of the season, and he has a lot of really good match ups left.  He has an incredibly soft remaining schedule that wraps up with the bucs, panthers, raiders and browns in weeks 13 to 16,  

If you're 4-5 or even 3-6 and have some holes in your lineup, this would be a great time to trade a stud for a package that includes a guy like Tyrell Williams who could produce as a high end WR2.  

 
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Just looking at it quickly he's in the high 20's for me. 28-29ish....... I'd trade Jordy Nelson for him in Dynasty PPR. 

 
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Yeah he is in the mid 20s for me too in PPR Dynasty...  

I like him more than:

Jordy,  Maclin, Baldwin, Marvin Jones 

But less than:

Coleman, Parker, Michael Thomas

There is a big dropoff right around WR15.  I think you could make an argument for top 20 if you wanted to stretch it.   I'm not sure about guys like Cobb, Diggs, JMat, and Shepard.

 
Just Win Baby said:
I think he is top 30, but top 20 is definitely a stretch. Already posted about it in this thread here.
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Yeah I agree,  but it might not be a stretch too much longer.   I think the biggest thing to see going forward will be his role when Allen returns.   If his role stays the same and he keeps developing I see him easily over taking some of the players currently ahead of him in Dynasty ranks,  especially since those guys will be 1 year older. 

 
kittenmittens said:
Yeah he is in the mid 20s for me too in PPR Dynasty...  

I like him more than:

Jordy,  Maclin, Baldwin, Marvin Jones 

But less than:

Coleman, Parker, Michael Thomas

There is a big dropoff right around WR15.  I think you could make an argument for top 20 if you wanted to stretch it.   I'm not sure about guys like Cobb, Diggs, JMat, and Shepard.
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Agree with most of that but I'd take Baldwin over him right now and top 20 is tough. He could play his way into top 25 for me if he finishes the year strong. Not sure what's up with his knee. He's been going on the injury report with some kind of knee issue I think. Not 100% on that and he hasn't missed a game yet because of it.

 
kittenmittens said:
Yeah I agree,  but it might not be a stretch too much longer.   I think the biggest thing to see going forward will be his role when Allen returns.   If his role stays the same and he keeps developing I see him easily over taking some of the players currently ahead of him in Dynasty ranks,  especially since those guys will be 1 year older. 
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It is hard to move into the top 25 if season targets are limited to around 100 (my expectation), without a lot of TDs. He has the potential to develop into a higher TD guy, but we haven't seen that yet, and there will remain a lot of red zone competition for him going forward, even if Gates retires (Gordon, Woodhead?, Allen, Henry).

 
A stat to keep in mind is if you take the two Denver games out, which I understand is controversial but nobody does well against them and SD didn't even throw much to the WR in those games, Tyrell is averaging 4.8 catches 80.4 yards and .42 Td's a game. Prorate that for a season and it's nearly 77-1300-7. That's a 249 point season applying my league scoring. Which would have put him at WR14 last year. He is going to get better which should make everybody excited but his opportunity might never be greater than it is right now because Allen will be coming back next year and he should cut Tyrell's targets down.

He's a WR1 the rest of the year this year and then he probably drops down to a low end WR2 next year.......

 
This dude is going to have at least one or two monster games down the stretch (knee injury permitting). He's an ideal WR3. Decent floor with WR #1 upside during the last four games of the season in any given week against TB, Car, Oak, Cle. That's WR #1 as in the top WR scorer overall, not just a WR1. I have a death grip on this dude. I wouldn't trade him for anything but an insanity.

:no jinx:

 
He's my best wr.  start 3. ar15, k. Benjamin, and tyrell williams.  if you had told me t williams would be my best wr before season i woulda slapped ya

 
Milkman said:
He'd be great to stack with Rivers for the playoff run. 
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Got this connection in one league and looking forward to that run. In other leagues where I can't get him I am grabbing Inman for same reasons. Might be a good spot starter down the road I'd sd players keep getting injured. Inman price is free to cheap.

 
Milkman said:
A stat to keep in mind is if you take the two Denver games out, which I understand is controversial but nobody does well against them and SD didn't even throw much to the WR in those games, Tyrell is averaging 4.8 catches 80.4 yards and .42 Td's a game. Prorate that for a season and it's nearly 77-1300-7. That's a 249 point season applying my league scoring. Which would have put him at WR14 last year. He is going to get better which should make everybody excited but his opportunity might never be greater than it is right now because Allen will be coming back next year and he should cut Tyrell's targets down.

He's a WR1 the rest of the year this year and then he probably drops down to a low end WR2 next year.......
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I think it's smart to do this very thing and make adjustments. It's not like he has to play them again this season

 
kittenmittens said:
Where are folks ranking him in Dynasty leagues?  He's moving up my ranks quite a bit but I'm not sure where I land with him.
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Can't believe that Tefertiller doesn't even have him ranked in his top 80 dynasty WRs.

Although he doesn't have Terrelle Pryor either so maybe I shouldn't put too much stock into his rankings.

Personally I'd have Tyrell around 25th.

 
He has a great move off the line to create separation and has a good top gear.  I think he is the WR1 going forward even when Allen comes back as he likely continues to get better with experience.

 
az_prof said:
He has a great move off the line to create separation and has a good top gear.  I think he is the WR1 going forward even when Allen comes back as he likely continues to get better with experience.
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That outcome is certainly in the range of possibility but he has to keep getting better. He's not there yet but I could see him getting there by training camp next year.....

 
Tyrell needs to command more targets. He does that by gaining Rivers trust. Allen was a target hog with 4 games where he drew 13 or more targets in 2015. We haven't seen that type of usage out of Tyrell yet......Maybe we'll see it this week. Still when Allen comes back he's a legitimate threat to Tyrell's targets. There is to much history pointing to Allen being the #1 on SD for Tyrell owners to ignore.  

 
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Milkman said:
Tyrell needs to command more targets. He does that by gaining Rivers trust. Allen was a target hog with 4 games where he drew 13 or more targets in 2015. We haven't seen that type of usage out of Tyrell yet......Maybe we'll see it this week. Still when Allen comes back he's a legitimate threat to Tyrell's targets. There is to much history pointing to Allen being the #1 on SD for Tyrell owners to ignore.  
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I don't think you're going to see it. I would argue that San Diego's offense became more efficient after they started distributing the ball to more people other than Gates and Allen. It's not unlike what Stafford and the Detroit Lions are doing without Calvin Johnson. They are better because of the diversity. It's much more difficult to defend as a defense on a week-to-week basis.

 
Milkman said:
A stat to keep in mind is if you take the two Denver games out, which I understand is controversial but nobody does well against them and SD didn't even throw much to the WR in those games, Tyrell is averaging 4.8 catches 80.4 yards and .42 Td's a game. Prorate that for a season and it's nearly 77-1300-7. That's a 249 point season applying my league scoring. Which would have put him at WR14 last year. He is going to get better which should make everybody excited but his opportunity might never be greater than it is right now because Allen will be coming back next year and he should cut Tyrell's targets down.

He's a WR1 the rest of the year this year and then he probably drops down to a low end WR2 next year.......
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:lol:

I'm a Ty owner since early last year, so I love the optimism. 

But you don't get to take the DEN games out for averaging, and then leave DEN out when you multiply the weekly averages to get a season projection. Like it or not, he's still got to play DEN twice each year. 

 
Bronco Billy said:
:lol:

I'm a Ty owner since early last year, so I love the optimism. 

But you don't get to take the DEN games out for averaging, and then leave DEN out when you multiply the weekly averages to get a season projection. Like it or not, he's still got to play DEN twice each year. 
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Yeah I agree to a point but you can take what he has averaged against the rest of the league and get a better idea of what he'll likely do the rest of this season. Denver is not on the schedule anymore. That average is 4.8-80.4-.42 a game which comes out to 15.36 points a game. That puts him at WR15. Then when you take his schedule Mia-Hou-TB-Car-Oak-Cle I think it's fair to say a bump in production is likely. If he pushes 16+ppg ROS he's a low end WR1 moving forward......

He's missed like 3 TD's by a yard or two also. He could easily have 2-3 more TD's right now.

 
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Bronco Billy said:
:lol:

I'm a Ty owner since early last year, so I love the optimism. 

But you don't get to take the DEN games out for averaging, and then leave DEN out when you multiply the weekly averages to get a season projection. Like it or not, he's still got to play DEN twice each year. 
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Good point for NEXT year, not THIS year.

 
Listed as questionable and limited at practice all week. Haven't heard anything that he will sit but the late game potentially complicates things.

 
zamboni said:
Listed as questionable and limited at practice all week. Haven't heard anything that he will sit but the late game potentially complicates things.
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Has been the same for three weeks now, I believe, then he plays without issue.  Looks like it's just San Diego conserving him during the week to ensure he's available come game time.

 
I've been very happy with T Williams' production so far. I've been playing matchups for my WRs but just can't start him this week over Julio, Cobb, and Allen Robinson. Been considering him over Robinson though. 

 
3nOut said:
I've been very happy with T Williams' production so far. I've been playing matchups for my WRs but just can't start him this week over Julio, Cobb, and Allen Robinson. Been considering him over Robinson though. 
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I would rank these four as follows: Julio, Williams, Cobb, then Robinson, although the last 3 are fairly close.

 
3nOut said:
I've been very happy with T Williams' production so far. I've been playing matchups for my WRs but just can't start him this week over Julio, Cobb, and Allen Robinson. Been considering him over Robinson though. 
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If it helps, I'm also deciding between TWill and Cobb in 0.5 PPR. Agree with TS that its very close. As of right now, leaning Williams because I just can't see a lot of risk factors. I like Cobb a lot this week, but there is at least a small chance that he's still limited or reinjures the hammy, or GB gets up and pulls him to make sure he stays healthy. Williams, meanwhile, pretty much has the WR1 role locked up in a neutral matchup  

In your case, I'd probably sit ARob. Much higher risk, plus bad matchup. 

 
Williams was limited in practice on Friday.

Travis Benjamin is Doubtful

Inman is healthy and has a Hall of Fame QB slinging it. Miami is decent against the run but very suspect in the secondary. Pro Bowl,Safety Rashad Jones is on IR...Inman is coming off b2b double digit production in PPR, this week I expect him to push that closer to 20. 6/75/TD.

 
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Tyrell was limited in practice last week and played. He'll play and play well. I'm expecting a big game where he leads the team in targets. Then he has a bye to rest that knee next week. 

 
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So frustrating. Two red zone targets, one where Tyrell draws a PI and the second when he's surrounded by defenders. The play before though he missed him when he came uncovered on the GL. UGH

 
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