The Frankman
Footballguy
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RB Raheem Mostert, MIA (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter JFS171
- Start date
joey
Footballguy
Have to believe that Mostert is a draft day winner because of the Breida trade to Miami.
Out of the blue, an FFPC owner offered me 2 mid-3rd rounders for Mostert 2 or 3 days ago, and I declined then thinking I’d rather had a guy who performed at a high level when given the chance last year, than 2 major dart throws (and especially in FFPC's Keep 16 format where you can’t really stash tons of rookie players from year to year). Now after today, I have to believe that Mostert is worth high 2nd, to me at least, which means he’s a definite HOLD at this point, since no one is going to pay that.
Out of the blue, an FFPC owner offered me 2 mid-3rd rounders for Mostert 2 or 3 days ago, and I declined then thinking I’d rather had a guy who performed at a high level when given the chance last year, than 2 major dart throws (and especially in FFPC's Keep 16 format where you can’t really stash tons of rookie players from year to year). Now after today, I have to believe that Mostert is worth high 2nd, to me at least, which means he’s a definite HOLD at this point, since no one is going to pay that.
rockaction
Footballguy
Things are looking up today, but wait for the chickens to come home...
Nah, I've gone on at length why I like him. But you're never going to see what you is fair value for him if you roster him. If you roster him, the uncertainly of his role and his age are baked into the offers you're getting. Nobody is offering on his stat line unless they're really win now or just looking to hang around in some games cheaply; or, you got him as the piece of a trade that you wanted for other reasons (like I did...)
Nah, I've gone on at length why I like him. But you're never going to see what you is fair value for him if you roster him. If you roster him, the uncertainly of his role and his age are baked into the offers you're getting. Nobody is offering on his stat line unless they're really win now or just looking to hang around in some games cheaply; or, you got him as the piece of a trade that you wanted for other reasons (like I did...)
barackdhouse
Footballguy
About a month ago I paid what I am reasonably sure will both be late 2nd rounders in 2021 for Mostert so I can compete now.
I guess in the sense that they didn't spend any draft capital on the position. But McKinnon is coming back, and it sounds like the coaches definitely have a plan to use him, especially in the passing game, if (granted, a major "if") he's healthy. They also snagged a couple of UDFAs that sound like they are solid scheme fits. And then Coleman and Wilson are coming back too. I think the odds are still against him being a fantasy star this year.
joey
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Exactly.
This might be the single most misunderstood concept in fantasy conversations and debates. Of course we'd all rather have CMC. But *after* that who are you starting, because you have to start someone. Who is that someone going to be?
Snorkelson
Footballguy
I gave Corey Davis and jjaw, I already owned Coleman- pre draft. Happy with that investment I think.
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
passed the eye test for me down the stretch....considered the lead in a very efficient league high volume running game....over 5.5 yards per carry....ability to take it to the house but also physical....saw a Mostert comment about how he wanted to take his game to the next level as in HOF type of play moving forward....IMO a healthy Brieda was more of a concern than Coleman or McKinnon....so I saw that trade as a huge message......while I may be discounting the other backs a little too much, I think Mostert gives you top 5 upside at a considerable discount right now......expect his redraft ADP to be in the RB1 conversation in 12 teamers by start of season....sometimes you have to pot commit to some players to define your draft and I would have zero problem loading up elsewhere and then snagging Mostert as a plug and play to lead my RB's....he will be on many of my teams at his current price, and even if it starts costing more....I believe in what I saw and also not what teams always say, but what they do (trade Breida).....I may swing and miss but I'll be hitching my wagon to this guy a lot...
JohnnyU
Footballguy
For win now teams he's a good to obtain at a reasonable price. Keep in mind he's 28 years old.
rockaction
Footballguy
Easiest rushing schedule in 2020 according to PFF.
The Athletic's Matt Barrows speculates that 49ers RB Raheem Mostert "could see a deal get done" ahead of teammate George Kittle's looming extension.
"The 49ers also could ink extensions with two guys who could see new deals this year: [Kendrick] Bourne and running back Raheem Mostert," Barrows writes. "Mostert, in fact, could see a deal get done ahead of Kittle’s."
https://theathletic.com/1849342/2020/06/02/49ers-mailbag-what-deal-gets-done-after-george-kittle-jamycal-hasty-as-rb3/?source=emp_shared_article
"The 49ers also could ink extensions with two guys who could see new deals this year: [Kendrick] Bourne and running back Raheem Mostert," Barrows writes. "Mostert, in fact, could see a deal get done ahead of Kittle’s."
https://theathletic.com/1849342/2020/06/02/49ers-mailbag-what-deal-gets-done-after-george-kittle-jamycal-hasty-as-rb3/?source=emp_shared_article
Faust
MVP
https://twitter.com/jamesdkoh/status/1275849374900408322?s=21James Koh @JamesDKoh
The #NextGenStats LOVED Raheem Mostert (@RMos_8Ball)His 6.18 ypc on outside runs was tops among all qualified RBs and vs loaded boxes he was 3rd best at 6.0 ypc. Tough to stop, his run stuff rate was 2nd best only to Zeke. Where we taking him in drafts??? #Niners #49ers
jm192
Footballguy
I'm having a really hard time putting my thumb down on him. Clearly separated himself as the best back on a great rushing offense. Ran all over the Packers in the playoffs--leads you to believe he's got more monster game potential.
The top 4 backs last year ran it 397 times. Breida opens up 120+ touches. Outside of weeks 2-3, Wilson didn't do anything. Assuming it's a ~60-40 split for most of the touches, Mostert should be around 235-240 rushes. Assuming his efficiency drops some with the increased workload, I think something like 240 for 1120 is reasonable.
All 3 backs had ~20 catches last year, so maybe 60 to go around. Trying to think conservatively--you're looking at maybe 30 catches for ~250?
He had 10 regular season TD's with another 5 in 3 post-season games. Probably 8 is a safe number, but there's no reason he can't hit double digits again with an increased workload.
The top 4 backs last year ran it 397 times. Breida opens up 120+ touches. Outside of weeks 2-3, Wilson didn't do anything. Assuming it's a ~60-40 split for most of the touches, Mostert should be around 235-240 rushes. Assuming his efficiency drops some with the increased workload, I think something like 240 for 1120 is reasonable.
All 3 backs had ~20 catches last year, so maybe 60 to go around. Trying to think conservatively--you're looking at maybe 30 catches for ~250?
He had 10 regular season TD's with another 5 in 3 post-season games. Probably 8 is a safe number, but there's no reason he can't hit double digits again with an increased workload.
Reservoir Dog
Footballguy
Having a tough time ranking Mostert, I really want to move him up, but I keep having Mike Shanahan-igans flashbacks. With the exception of Belichick, nobody played more games with his RB's. I have a feeling Mostert gets about 60% of the carries though, which would make him a mighty fine flex play.
woodstock
Footballguy
One is less optimistic about his chances for a career renaissance given the current world health situation. He's 28. This is his time or never. He could easily be the lead back in SF. There's no doubt about his talent. It's been demonstrated. Best burst I've seen in a while.
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
Just got a message from Sleeper stating Raheem Mostert had just requested a trade.
Wingnut
Footballguy
Tweeted by Mosterts agent via twitter:
After months of unproductive talks with the 49ers about fairly adjusting Raheem Mostert's contract (which paid him for special teams) we have requested a trade. Disappointing that it would come to this for a guy who led all NFL RBs in YPC & helped lead them to the Super Bowl.
Jesus. I thought he'd be a 49er for a long time.
After months of unproductive talks with the 49ers about fairly adjusting Raheem Mostert's contract (which paid him for special teams) we have requested a trade. Disappointing that it would come to this for a guy who led all NFL RBs in YPC & helped lead them to the Super Bowl.
Jesus. I thought he'd be a 49er for a long time.
The Frankman
Footballguy
Wingnut
Footballguy
Hes actually asking to be the highest paid RB on the roster or be traded. Pretty reasonable request, IMO, since hes playing on a special teamers contract. Hes making 2.55 million, while Coleman makes 4.55. So basically, he wants a whole $2 million more per season, which won't break the bank. Pay the man.
https://www.49erswebzone.com/articles/137774-49ers-news-raheem-mostert-asking-highest-paid-running-back/
https://www.49erswebzone.com/articles/137774-49ers-news-raheem-mostert-asking-highest-paid-running-back/
BINGBING
Footballguy
A lot of big names on Twitter are bashing him for this, and it's a really bad look on their part. As @The Frankman mentioned, he's being paid as a special teamer. I know paying RB's tons of money isn't a winning strategy, but get outta here with paying him like that.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
I can't imagine they will refuse a small $2M-ish bump to show their young players they reward production.
Then again, if they seemed open to that contract adjustment they wouldn't have come close to making this public. It means they aren't getting what they want behind closed doors and think public opinion and pressure will help get it done. Shanahan is a genius but always seemed kind of petty. He turns these random guys into starter-worthy producers effortlessly, I wonder if he just says "screw him". I personally think it's better for morale and culture to just up his pay a bit, but if that thought process flew in that FO we wouldn't be hearing the trade request.
I do have to say as as a Hasty/Salvon owner....my curiosity is piqued after I had gotten worried that potentially no training camp would hurt UDFA chances.
Then again, if they seemed open to that contract adjustment they wouldn't have come close to making this public. It means they aren't getting what they want behind closed doors and think public opinion and pressure will help get it done. Shanahan is a genius but always seemed kind of petty. He turns these random guys into starter-worthy producers effortlessly, I wonder if he just says "screw him". I personally think it's better for morale and culture to just up his pay a bit, but if that thought process flew in that FO we wouldn't be hearing the trade request.
I do have to say as as a Hasty/Salvon owner....my curiosity is piqued after I had gotten worried that potentially no training camp would hurt UDFA chances.
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rockaction
Footballguy
He just signed an extension about a year ago to be a backup running back/special teamer. That is all I really have to add. It doesn't look good for either side now. The 48ers look petty, Mostert looks like a man really without a home in football now (this is really late in the offseason).
Ugh. As someone who rosters Mostert, this is terrible news. I was not playing to win, and was thinking of putting him on the block before this, now it's pennies on the dollar. Good thing I have Hasty (I do not have Salvon as his 4.6 and slow game highlights were a clear deterrent.) But he was my backup running back.
Yikes.
Ugh. As someone who rosters Mostert, this is terrible news. I was not playing to win, and was thinking of putting him on the block before this, now it's pennies on the dollar. Good thing I have Hasty (I do not have Salvon as his 4.6 and slow game highlights were a clear deterrent.) But he was my backup running back.
Yikes.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
He clearly was the best back. It was frustrating to watch them try to get Brieda, McKinnon and Coleman more touches... like they really didn't believe Mostert out producing them was real.
rockaction
Footballguy
Interesting. Best situation I can see is San Francisco. I think he's also seeking an extension on top of being the highest paid back. SF is only committed to him through this year, if I'm not mistaken.
Wingnut
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
Yeah, I just saw that actually. One quibble with his agent's posturing. He really just signed the deal and signed it to be a backup RB, if I'm also not mistaken. He had already seen the field in significant measure as a backup RB when he signed. It's just that he won the job. He's under contract. Management is going to be hesitant to extend an RB into his thirtieth year of age. That's just not the way the NFL works.
As Mike Clay on Twitter put it and I put it an hour ago before I saw he did: The best shot for Mostert at getting relevant touches a game is to stay a 49er.
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Yeah that's what I meant. Asking if anyone thought he was actually getting traded. From what I can see I don't think he will be
The buy low would be in the hopes that he stays with the 9ers as their lead back
Don't really want him if he is getting moved
Boston
Footballguy
Let's also remember prior to last season he was 27 year old journeyman on his 5th team with a grand total of 42 carries and 6 receptions in his career...at the time the Niners gave him that deal it was a very nice score for Mostert and a solid leap of faith for the Niners...I see no reason why the Niners need to budge here.
rockaction
Footballguy
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
Lol Mostert is nuts. I always thought he was way better than teams were utilizing him, but then he finally finds a HC who gets that... and he goes prima donna and demands a trade/holdout?
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rockaction
Footballguy
Problem for him is, it's likely his last and he wants to get the most squeezed out of it. Second problem for his is, he sort of signed one right before last year, if I'm not mistaken.
The Frankman
Footballguy
... and he's getting paid like a special teamer instead of a lead back. RBs have a short life and he's not naive enough to believe that if he continues this production into the end of his team the Niners will reward him for being a "good soldier". So he's asking to be paid more like a RB, I don't think throwing in an extra couple million ($2.575 mill to maybe $4.575?) is going to cash strap them.
Boston
Footballguy
Or they realize they grabbed a guy who was on his fifth team at age 27 with literally zero production and put him in a very run-friendly system and turned him into a productive back and they believe they can find another one.
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brewer
Footballguy
Is his hope that he gets traded to a team where he becomes a backup again, making his salary seem more reasonable? Because I'm not sure I see a team who will give something of value and then give Mostert the raise he is looking for in the best of seasons, let alone in one where there is a very real worry about what the future salary cap will look like.
rockaction
Footballguy
What's weird about Mostert is that Shanahan has said that he nearly had to pry him off of special teams to be the feature back. Maybe he's just an introspective, interesting guy like Arian Foster was. Perhaps he also sees more money playing special teams until he's thirty-five rather than being a starting running back for two years.
I dunno. The whole situation is odd. There's no lead back or big dog assured totes. He signed a contract before last year to extend him, well over what a special teamer makes. I think it's just the logistics of football biting a running back in the butt again.
I dunno. The whole situation is odd. There's no lead back or big dog assured totes. He signed a contract before last year to extend him, well over what a special teamer makes. I think it's just the logistics of football biting a running back in the butt again.
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