The combine has come and gone, and we’re in the heart of pro day season. My opinions of the 2006 rookie class are starting to set, but they are still half-baked. The combine served its purpose well – confirming or debunking whether a player had the raw physical tools to hang or even excel at the next level. This is the only time that we’ll see this year’s class (well most of it) in the exact same drills and tests on the same field with the same timing and evaluation. While it’s important to not put too much into combine numbers, they can be a very useful tool in determining whether a player’s skills will translate against bigger, faster, and more athletic players.
At this stage of the game, slotting some of these guys is agonizingly tough and somewhat arbitrary. I could put the 2nd tier RBs in just about any order and slot them anywhere from 5 to 13 until we know their destinations. Particularly hard is slotting the 5-13 tier, and the 25-40 tier. Somewhere around 70 or 80 we get to the longer shots and there are 30-40 players that didn’t make the list who arguably deserve a mention.
All star games and the combine/pro days are only one piece of the puzzle. Draft destination and news out of training camp can totally change my perspective on the chances of success for a player. I’ve tried to include rumored destinations where there has been some consensus in the chatter. My gut feeling about some of these guys continues evolve, and I know that some of the views I have right now will look foolish in 6 months. A player moving up or down on the list may not be strictly based on combine performance. Qualifications out of the way, this is how I’d rank them at the moment:
Notes:
• Rankings assume PPR, TE required leagues, start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, DT/DE and CB/S broken out, no TE or IDP premium.
• Previous rank in parenthesis next to current rank
• Reports of combine numbers have varied, and the official numbers on NFL.com are incomplete.
• Some notes are from the 1st edition – I’ve added combine notes and some additional thoughts
• I’ve added upside and downside compares for the top 25.
• Players who were not ranked in the previous rookie 100 are noted with a NL in place of a previous ranking.
1(1). Reggie Bush, RB, USC - Believe the hype. I think he’s Marshall Faulk with a 5th gear. He will be the centerpiece of the offense wherever he ends up. Houston still seems like the most likely destination - it doesn’t worry me, Bush’s talent is transcendent. He’s a top 10 dynasty RB in my mind right now. Faulk had no trouble reaching the fantasy elite without getting 300 carries, and neither will Bush. His receiving skills, change of direction, and speed are elite. He might be light, but he does not run like a scatback, he finishes every run and fights for extra yards.
Upside: Marshall Faulk
Downside: Brian Westbrook
2(2). DeAngelo Williams, RB, Memphis – DeAngelo cemented his franchise RB status with a near spotless week at the Senior Bowl. There are some questions about his ability/willingness to run inside – he likes to bounce the run outside, but will he consistently beat NFL defenders to the corner? DeAngelo looks like a natural feature back in all other aspects of his game. He was a little bigger at the combine and had the second most bench press reps of the RBs, which should help ease concerns about his ability to pass protect. A lot of mocks have him going to Atlanta. I see him having the same current value as Ronnie Brown or Cadillac Williams at this time next year. One caveat: Williams has the spottiest durability record of the top 4 RBs.
Upside: Curtis Martin
Downside: Thomas Jones
3(3). LenDale White, RB, USC - One of the best north-south RB prospects in a long time. His situation could vault him over Williams. If he ends up on a winning team, 20+ TDs is not out of the question. He was a little heavy at the combine, but that doesn’t bother me.
Upside: Jerome Bettis
Downside: T.J. Duckett
4(4). Laurence Maroney, RB, Minnesota - Could end up with the best situation of the top 4 RBs. Maroney’s hamstring kept him from working out at the combine, so we’ll have to wait to see how his numbers stack up. Indianapolis comes up frequently in speculation about his possible home. He’s firmly in the 4 spot and I wouldn’t argue with him at 2 if he lands in Indy. Maroney is not polished enough to be an everydown RB and needs to work on blocking and receiving.
Upside: Edgerrin James
Downside: Tatum Bell
5(5). Vince Young, QB, Texas – He’s a great runner at QB, but not a run-first QB. Vince should be top 10 QB at worst, with top 3-5 upside. He has the skillset to be a true fantasy stud at QB, and that is becoming a rare commodity. Even if he completely busts as a QB, he will be an elite NFL WR. The wonderlic fiasco has come and gone, and it doesn’t change my view of him. Tennessee and Oakland are the names I see the most, but there are reasons to think Oakland would not take a QB, and Tennessee may prefer D’brickashaw Ferguson (they released Brad Hopkins, their former starting left tackle). I really have no idea where he’ll end up right now, although the Jets and Titans are planning on working him out.
Upside: Randall Cunningham
Downside: Michael Vick(Matt Jones)
6(7). Santonio Holmes, WR, Ohio St. – Holmes is a speedy WR with the moves and deep ball skills to be a gamebreaker. He’s is the surest thing at WR in the draft, but lacks the unlimited upside of elite prospects in previous years. The ball is in Holmes’s court to seize the #1 WR slot after Chad Jackson’s combine. I slightly prefer Holmes because of his shiftiness and better polish, but it’s very close. I see Philadelphia, Dallas, and San Diego taking him a lot in mock drafts, but I’m not sure I buy any of those places as his destination. Holmes was in the mid 4.3s on a fast track at the OSU pro day.
Upside: Santana Moss
Downside: Peter Warrick
7(9). Chad Jackson, WR, Florida – He’s got the size/speed combo to be a true #1, and the biggest upside of any WR in this draft. His combine 40 was one of the biggest stories to come out of Indianapolis, and when you combine that with a strong, thick build, you get a possible fantasy stud. The deeper we get into the first, the harder it becomes to predict destination, but Denver certainly seems possible to me.
Upside: Javon Walker
Downside: Kevin Dyson
8(11). Vernon Davis, TE, Maryland – He’s a Ben Watson-esque freak of nature, but more physical than Watson. Here’s your star of the combine. Davis’s size/speed/strength combo was staggering as expected. He has the speed and explosion of a wide receiver and the strength of an offensive lineman. If your league is TE premium, I could see taking him 5th , as he’s got the potential to be “Antonio Gates on crack” (thanks to bob magaw). He could go anywhere from San Francisco at 6 to St. Louis at 11, but I don’t see him falling much farther.
Upside: Antonio Gates
Downside: Ben Watson
9(8). Matt Leinart, QB, USC – Matt lacks the big arm and running ability to break the elite tier of fantasy QBs, but will be a solid starting fantasy QB (See: Brees, Pennington) at worst, and could be another Tom Brady. New Orleans seems like the favorite to land him, but there’s recent news that the Jets want to work him out, and the Saints are making a play for Brees.
Upside: Tom Brady
Downside: Drew Brees
10(14). Joseph Addai, RB, LSU - Versatile RB, situation is crucial - will he be asked to be a full time RB? He had a good week at Senior Bowl practices. Addai really aced the combine, showing the best speed and explosion of any RB tested. He’s got the most ideal feature back frame of the 2nd tier RBs, and probably the highest upside, although he was the least productive in college. He’s also got the skills to stay on the field on 3rd down. His stock is on the rise.
Upside: Domanick Davis
Downside: James Jackson
11(6). Brian Calhoun, RB, Wisconsin –Brian is a burner who runs tough for a little guy. Like Maroney, he could easily end up in best immediate situation of the rookie RBs. Probably not a true feature back, but could definitely be a Dunn/Garner type for fantasy. Calhoun ran a 4.6 at the combine, then followed it up with a 4.38 in Madison at his pro day. He still did well in the quickness tests and had one of the best broad jumps of the RB group. Calhoun did not drop as much as others caught him – almost all of the top 15 that worked out at the combine exceeded expectations, while Calhoun did not.
Upside: Warrick Dunn
Downside: Maurice Morris
12(15). Jerome Harrison, RB, Washington St.– Jerome’s a productive, small, elusive back but he lacks breakaway speed. He overcame doubts at his size at Senior Bowl weigh-in with tremendous work on the final drive of the game. Harrison’s 40 time was good, and his all important 10 and 20 yard times were among the top of the class at the combine. His quickness drills were #1 among RBs tested and backed up his reputation as an extremely shifty back.
Upside: Tiki Barber
Downside: J.J. Arrington
13(10). Maurice Drew, RB, UCLA – He’s a smaller version of Reggie Bush. Drew ran a 4.39 at the combine and the fact that he is very sturdily built for a short back was noted by observers. He has made the most eye-popping plays of any of the 2nd tier RBs. Some will take him earlier because of the impression his highlight reel leaves. I’m rooting for him, and might be persuaded to bump him as high as 5th if he ends up somewhere that won’t cast him as part of an RBBC.
Upside: poor man’s Barry Sanders
Downside: Amos Zereoue
14(13). A.J. Hawk, LB, Ohio St. - A surefire stud LB. I won't argue with him in the single digits if you need an LB badly. Don’t think that Hawk did not do well at the combine because he dropped a spot, he had one of the best all around workouts in recent memory. His quickness numbers would have been elite if he was an RB – and he’s 6’1” 250. Think about that for a second. He just has the fantasy limitation of playing LB, capping his upside around the value of a top 8 TE, decent WR2, or RBBC RB, no matter how well he does. The Packers and 49ers are possible destinations for Hawk.
Upside: Brian Urlacher
Downside: Brian Bosworth
15(12). Marcedes Lewis, TE, UCLA - Basically an oversized WR at TE. Will be featured in the passing attack wherever he lands. Some are souring on him because of lack of speed. He showed better than advertised blocking in the Senior Bowl. Lewis was among the slowest of the TEs in Indianapolis in the 40 yard dash and his short shuttle time was offensive lineman speed. I still like him as a nice short/intermediate target and I have no doubt he’ll be a startable fantasy TE. There are plenty of teams that could use a receiving TE – Cincinnati, Chicago, and Carolina come to mind immediately.
Upside: Todd Heap
Downside: Jerremy Stevens
16(16). Jay Cutler, QB, Vanderbilt - Athleticism and cannon gives him more fantasy upside than Leinart, but he carries much more risk. Mixed reviews of Senior Bowl practices. Cutler had a good combine and showed exceptional strength for a QB. The Titans and Jets are mentioned a lot with Cutler.
Upside: Steve McNair
Downside: Kyle Boller
17(22). Jerious Norwood, RB, Mississippi St - Norwood=Speed - Willie parker-type who could pay off in the right situation. Norwood had a terrific combine and really put himself in the 2nd tier RB mix. I still don’t see him as an everydown back, but Norwood has shown that he is every bit the athlete as the other 2nd tier backs.
Upside: Julius Jones
Downside: Ryan Moats
18(17). Sinorice Moss, WR, Miami(FL) – Santana’s little brother will be a stud IF he refines his WR skills. Sinorice looked like the fastest guy at the Senior Bowl. Moss’s 40 time was not quite up to Jackson’s but he was the best in 10 and 20 yards, confirming his top notch acceleration off the line. He’s still a risk because of his small stature and lack of use at Miami, but the success of very similar WRs lately gets him a top 20 slot. Moss showed off a 42” vertical leap at Miami pro day, mitigating some of the concerns about his height.
Upside: Steve Smith
Downside: Roscoe Parrish
19(21). Brandon Marshall, WR, Central Florida - I know I'm not the only one to have drank the kool aid on this big, physical WR. Marshall was dominant in the postseason. He ran in the 4.5s at the combine, faster than expected. It’s hard for me to contain my enthusiasm about this guy, the “it” quality is there. Marshall plays with the “my ball” mentality that so many of the top WRs have.
Upside: Terrell Owens
Downside: Kelley Washington
20(18). Demetrius Williams, WR, Oregon – Willams has big play potential to hang with any WR in the draft, but he needs to bulk up and become more physical to succeed in the NFL. Demetrius showed great hands in Senior Bowl practices. Williams’s combine results confirmed his explosiveness, and he was also one of the quickest WRs in Indy.
Upside: poor man’s Chad Johnson
Downside: Brandon Lloyd
21(19). Dominique Byrd, TE, USC – Dominique was underused at USC. He can do damage downfield as well as any TE in the draft. His Senior Bowl week boosted his stock. Byrd did not participate in the combine. He made it into the first in Kiper’s last mock.
Upside: Alge Crumpler
Downside: Jermaine Wiggins
22(34). Martin Nance, WR, Miami(OH) – Martin a big aggressive WR, but he seemed tentative in the Senior Bowl. He still has latent upside coming off a 2004 ACL tear. I’ve had a bit of a change of heart about Nance since the combine. His 4.55 was good for a guy less than 2 years removed from a severe knee injury, and while the rest of his numbers fell a little short of the rest of the class, I’m convinced that he’ll be sharper in the fall. He has jumped to the top of a 3rd tier WR class filled with question marks.
Upside: Plaxico Burress
Downside: Billy McMullen
23(23). Omar Jacobs, QB, Bowling Green – Omar has the tools to be an elite fantasy QB. He could be a great value in a league that cherishes QBs so much coming off a down year. Jacobs had a very solid combine and displayed that his funky delivery gets results
Upside: Daunte Culpepper
Downside: Josh McCown
24(28). Ernie Sims, LB, Florida St. - As a 4-3 chase WLB, Sims could put up stats with any LB in the draft. Ernie really stood out in the OLB group at the combine as an explosive prospect at LB. Minnesota, Tampa Bay, and the Giants all seem possible to me.
Upside: Derrick Brooks
Downside: Boss Bailey
25(20). Chad Greenway, LB, Iowa – Chad projects as 4-3 WLB, and should put up big time tackle numbers. He impressed in Senior Bowl practices. Greenway looked good in drills at the combine, but his measureables failed to impress. He should be a solid mid first pick in April.
Upside: Keith Brooking
Downside: Brian Simmons
26(27). Jonathan Orr, WR, Wisconsin – Orr has a size/speed package to hang with any WR in the draft, but he's a project (severely underused at Wisconsin) and needs to become more consistent. He had an up and down week at the East West Shrine Game before getting hurt. Orr’s top end speed was confirmed at the combine, and he had times in the mid 4.2s on a fast track at Wisconsin’s pro day.
27(30). Maurice Stovall, WR, Notre Dame – Maurice really enhanced his stock at Senior Bowl by dropping weight and showing good hands. He won’t be a gamebreaker, but he projects as a solid starting NFL WR if his development continues at the same pace as his senior year. Stovall was not among the faster wide receivers at the combine, but that was expected. His quickness numbers were very good for a tall WR. He’s got plenty of upside as Charlie Weis was just beginning to develop him in his senior year.
28(31). Mike Hass, WR, Oregon St. - The most dependable WR in this draft. Hass won't wow you with tools, but always gets the job done. Mike had a great East West Shrine Game performance. Hass was among the slowest WRs at the combine, but his excellence as a technician at WR was on display in the drills. His downside is that he may end up being a possession WR in the NFL, but he’s physical and has exceeded expectations at every point in his career.
29(38). Travis Wilson, WR, Oklahoma - Another favorite sleeper at WR – Travis has the athleticism to be a good NFL WR. He was overshadowed at Oklahoma, and banged up this year. The Senior Bowl week showed that Wilson needs refinement, but that he also has the tools to be a quality NFL WR. Wilson was one of the two quickest WRs at the combine and is not a small WR at 6’2” 214.
30(41). Greg Jennings, WR, Western Michigan - Very solid smallish WR lacking top end speed. He was a gamebreaker at WMU, but seemed average athletically in the East West Shrine WR group. Jennings had a nice all around combine, and he’s starting to grow on me. He’s one of the only WRs in the class that have both big play ability and a solid technical foundation.
31(32). Leonard Pope, TE, Georgia - This ranking will shock people, but I am down on Pope as a fantasy TE. He just seems stiff, not so much a big play guy or a future featured target in a passing offense. However, he will still be a useful fantasy TE at worst. Pope was great in the explosion tests and had one of the best 40 times among the TEs. Unfortunately, his shuttle time was very slow, almost as slow as Marcedes Lewis.
32(33). DeMeco Ryans, LB, Alabama - The LB version of Hass. A lack of elite athleticism caps his upside, but he will be productive at the next level. His lack of top end speed/size/strength really showed at Senior Bowl. Ryans showed surprisingly good explosion numbers at the combine, and his 40 and quickness times were respectable.
33(24). D'Qwell Jackson, LB, Maryland – D’Qwell should be a QB of the defense MLB, or 4-3 WLB. He had a terrific week at Senior Bowl. Jackson’s combine was solid across the board and he is still one of the top 2 prospects at ILB.
34(25). Abdul Hodge, LB, Iowa – This big thumper in the middle should rack up tackles in the mold of Jeremiah Trotter. Hodge’s combine numbers won’t jump out at you, but his value is as an instinctive and determined LB, which doesn’t show up in measureables. He and Jackson only dropped because some offensive players are more intriguing after flashing surprising tools at the combine.
35(36). De'Arrius Howard, RB, Arkansas - My favorite sleeper RB. Backup for the Hogs, but has the size/speed/inside running combo to be successful in the NFL. He blew away the competition all week at the Shrine Game. No combine invite, but I still see him as a sleeper with a high upside in the right offense.
36(35). Taurean Henderson, RB, Texas Tech - Already one of the best receiving RBs in the draft, Henderson showed solid ability to run out of an I formation in the East West Shrine Game. None of Henderson’s combine numbers were impressive, but his college production puts him in the sleeper RB tier. The Patriots have been mentioned as an interested team.
37(NL). Andre Hall, RB, South Florida – Hall was blazing fast at the combine, which is a revelation because lack of a 2nd gear was considered a weakness of his. He’s a decent RB running on the inside, and his unknown speed makes him a nice sleeper in the 3rd tier of RBs.
38(55). Jason Avant, WR, Michigan – This steady WR projects as a possession WR, something that deflates his ranking in a class of a lot of intriguing athletes at WR. Avant had an up and down week at the Senior Bowl - pulling out of a tailspin in the middle of the week. He will be more valuable for real football than fantasy. I was a little harsh on Avant after the Senior Bowl. He looked a lot sharper in the drills at the combine, although he only did the jumps among the measureable tests. He projects a solid #2 for the next level and will be good depth in dynasty leagues.
39(26). Greg Lee, WR, Pitt – This big play WR’s stock would have been a lot higher at end of last year. Lee is one of the few WR in this draft with potential to be the #1 WR – a true go-to target anywhere on the field. Lee had a very slow 40 time at the combine, but his quickness numbers were nice. He probably should have stayed in school for his senior year.
40(39). Leon Washington, RB, Florida St – Leon has elite pass catching skills out of the backfield, but durability/size issues seem to indicate that he won't be able to be a feature back. Washington was very impressive all week at the Shrine Game, looking like an NFL veteran. Washington confirmed top straight line speed at the combine, but I can’t see him getting out of the 3rd down back role in the pros.
41(40). Derek Hagan, WR, Arizona - Productive as any WR in this draft in college, but I just can't get excited about guys like Hagan because of his limited upside. Hagan’s hands were suspect all week at the Senior Bowl. Derek was way faster than anyone expected at the combine, but I haven’t seen him actually play that fast. His hands problems surfaced again in Indianapolis. Still, he’s not that far below Jon Orr despite the disparity in rankings – the 3rd tier of WRs is that tight.
42(42). Manny Lawson, OLB/DE, NC St. – His long frame, leaping ability, and closing speed will give QBs nightmares. Manny has pure football upside to match the LBs above him, but he will be stuck at 3-4 OLB, which is not a high tackle position. He really made a splash all week at the Senior Bowl. The speed that will make him a terror of an edge rusher was confirmed at the combine. A move to 4-3 DE would drop him on this list.
43(43). Mario Williams, DE, NC St - Has a chance to be a top 5-10 DE with his elite tools, but DEs are not a premium in most IDP dynasty leagues. I could see taking him 10-15 picks higher if you need a DE badly or if your league rewards sacks heavily. A sickening combine, guys that are 6’7” 300 should not as fast, quick, and explosive as Mario.
44(56). Thomas Howard, LB, UTEP - Athletically, he's right there with anyone in this LB class, but he lacks advanced instincts and is not the most physical LB. Howard had a solid week at the Senior Bowl. His terrific combine confirmed his elite athletic package.
45(66). Donte Whitner, SS, Ohio St. - Whitner has a scary speed/hitting combination for a safety. He can rush the QB, bring down the INT, and blow up plays all over the place with his 4.4 speed. I wouldn't be that surprised if he ends up being the best fantasy safety from this draft. Donte is moving up draft boards. He was slightly faster on OSU’s fast track than at the combine. Whitner also showed great explosion at the combine.
46(54). Garrett Mills, FB/TE, Tulsa - If this guy lands on a team with a creative offensive coordinator, watch out. He was ultraproductive as a receiver and has some of the best hands, regardless of position, in this whole draft class. Prepare to get tired of Chris Cooley comparisons. Mills worked mostly on the transition to FB at Senior Bowl. Mills’s combine was one of the most athletic of any TE prospect. If he gets used correctly by the team that drafts him, he has the potential to be a quality fantasy TE.
47(29). Todd Watkins, WR, BYU - Track star type size/speed deep threat WR could become Ashley Lelie or could become Todd Pinkston. Todd shook off a bad year with great week at the East West Shrine game. His speed was confirmed at combine, but I’m beginning so sour on him because you need to be physical to be more than a role player at WR.
48(49). Hank Baskett, WR, New Mexico – Hank’s a big, physical, jumpball lovin' WR. He had a disastrous week at the Senior Bowl, looking slow and stiff. Baskett was faster than expected at the combine, but he still seems to have the stiffness of a TE.
49(47). Bobby Carpenter, LB, Ohio St. - Like Lawson, Carpenter could be as good a football player as many LBs above him on this list, but he seems destined to be a 3-4 OLB or 4-3 SLB, which does not bode well for fantasy. His broken ankle looked good on OSU pro day. Cowboys and Pats seem possible.
50(64). Kamerion Wimbley, DE/OLB, Florida St - This tweener is not quite the freakish athlete that Manny Lawson is, but he's got good pass rush skills and should be productive in a 3-4 scheme. He had a good Senior Bowl and will go on the first day, limitations of 3-4 OLB stats keeps him low on this list. Kamerion had a good all-around combine and confirmed that he’s got the athleticism to make the switch to OLB.
51(52). Brad Smith, QB/WR/RB, Missouri - Smith has terrific open field running skills and is a born leader, but is without a position as he doesn't project well as a QB at the next level - his Hula Bowl week seemed to cinch this. He's a gamebreaker and should eventually play a role in an offense somewhere, but he's highly speculative. Great pick if you love boom/bust types. Smith confirmed a very good athletic package at the combine. He’s still insisting on working out at as a QB.
52(48). Brandon Williams, WR, Wisconsin - A smallish WR that lacks top end speed to mitigate size questions. Brandon is similar to Greg Jennings, but he’s smaller and less consistent. He had brilliant start to EW Shrine Game week in practices, but was barely heard from in the game. Williams did not exceed expectations at the combine, but showed he had good (but not elite) quickness and speed.
53(60). Bruce Gradkowski, QB, Toledo - The 2nd MAC QB on the list, Gradkowski has top intangibles and is very accurate and mobile. He's fast enough to get some decent rushing stats, always a bonus for fantasy QBs. He doesn't have a cannon, but this could be overcome in a west coast offense scheme. Bruce vaguely reminds me of Jeff Garcia. He had a good week of practice at the East West Shrine Game, but threw some floaters in the actual game. Gradkowski was one of the fastest QBs at the combine.
54(45). Paul Pinegar, QB, Fresno St. – Paul’s really an ideal west coast offense QB with his size, smarts, and arm. He had an impeccable week of practice at the Shrine Game, but played badly in the actual game. His stock is falling slightly – combine confirmed that he was a stationary pocket QB.
55(59). Joel Klopfenstein, TE, Colorado - Another of the nice 2nd tier of TEs in this class that will be good depth with some upside. All of these guys are value picks in the later rounds. Joel is more of a receiving TE, but he showed off his blocking and receiving skills in the Senior Bowl. Joel was one of the fastest and strongest TEs at the combine.
56(70). Michael Huff, S/CB, Texas - Huff's eventual position will make all the difference in his ranking. If the versatile DB is slotted at FS, He moves up 10-15 slots. At CB, he nearly falls off the list. This ranking splits the difference. Huff absolutely hit the combine out of the park, putting himself in the “franchise player” tier of the draft.
57(53). Cedric Humes, RB, Virginia Tech – Cedric doesn't have the speed of De’Arrius Howard, but is otherwise similar – a big power runner with good speed and vision that was overshadowed by other players in college. Humes is a gamer (played with a broken arm) and had a solid Senior Bowl week. Situation could vault him 20-25 spots on this list (PIT, NE, CAR). Humes did not impress at the combine, his numbers were basically in the expected range.
58(44). Darnell Bing, S, USC – He’s one of the elite options with top 10 upside at a position which doesn’t carry a real premium in IDP leagues. Darnell did LB and S position drills at combine, but didn’t run. Apparently his shoulder had to be checked out again. Bing was very quick for a large true strong safety type, but his durability issues are starting to concern me.
59(51). Ko Simpson, S, South Carolina - Excellent all around safety is better in coverage than Bing, but not as big a hitter or playmaker. I wouldn't argue if you ranked him #1 among safeties, but Whitner, Allen, Ko, Huff, and Bing all have stud potential. Ko is 22, but came out as a sophomore. He displayed a very nice all around athletic package at the combine, but was overshadowed by the other elite safeties.
60(69). Marques Colston, WR, Hofstra - Small school sleeper alert. Colston is a tall, somewhat slight WR who made a big splash at the East West Shrine Game. Marques has more upside than most players in the bottom 50. He was faster than expected at the combine, and showed a nice fluid style in the drills, although his rawness also showed on numerous drops.
61(68). Brodie Croyle, QB, Alabama - Croyle was not as big a story as Cutler at the Senior Bowl, but he did just as much to enhance his stock with his arm, intelligence, and intangibles. I still can't get behind him as a good pick because he looks like the kind of QB that is going to be broken in two in the NFL. I was a little harsh on Brodie at first, he’s solidly in the 2nd tier of QBs, and someone will give him a shot down the line.
62(63). Charlie Whitehurst, QB, Clemson - If Whitehurst exhibited better decision-making over the course of his college career, he'd be a lot higher on this list. He's got an ideal QB frame, good arm, and decent mobility. He made a good showing at the Senior Bowl despite recent throwing shoulder surgery. He’s a boom/bust pick. Charlie confirmed his nice athleticism for such a big QB at the combine.
63(73). Terrence Whitehead, RB, Oregon - I see this tough, versatile back as a Verron Haynes type FB/RB tweener. Still, those guys get chances to carry the load because of injuries in the NFL, and sometimes seize them. What I particularly like about him is that he loves contact and knows how to finish a run. He's a longshot to make a fantasy impact, but watching him run over guys at the Senior Bowl just like he has all year convinced me that he's worth a late pick. Whitehead was one of the slowest RBs at the combine, but his rugged running style should offset that a bit. Matt Waldman threw out a Duce Staley comparison, which sounds right to me for Whitehead’s upside.
64(NL). Jason Allen, DB, Tennessee – Welcome back Jason – Allen showed an elite athletic package less than 6 months after a gruesome hip dislocation. He’s soaring up draft boards everywhere. Like Huff, he could play either safety or cornerback in the NFL.
65(75). Kellen Clemens, QB, Oregon - The light bulb really came on for Clemens when the spread offense was instituted this year. Too bad the smart, elusive, quick draw QB's season ended early with an ankle injury. It was severe enough that he still couldn’t do the tests at the combine, but this could be just what you need to steal him late in your rookie drafts. Clemens threw very well at the combine and is starting to show up on most draftniks radar.
66(79). Daniel Bullocks, SS, Nebraska - Following his brother Josh (NO) to the pros, Bullocks had a very good week of practice at the Senior Bowl and projects as a very solid safety in the NFL. Bullocks was fast, quick, and explosive at the combine.
67(46). DonTrell Moore, RB, New Mexico - So productive in college and a natural runner, and I love his tenacity in the return from ACL surgery in only 9 months, but just not fast or elusive enough for a smallish back all week at the Shrine Game. Moore does have latent upside because he's still in the 2 year window of ACL recovery. He was slow at the combine and will need to get some of his speed back to make a difference at the next level.
68(77). Devin Aromashadu, WR, Auburn - Devin was somewhat overlooked at Auburn, but showed the combination of size, speed, and physical play to generate some interest during the Senior Bowl week. His style and situation reminds me of Brandon Jones last year. Devon’s 40 time turned heads at the combine, but I can’t get too excited about him because he doesn’t seem like a natural WR to me.
69(57). Tim Day, TE, Oregon - As a route runner and pure receiver, Day is not far behind the other TEs on this list. The reason he's so far below them is that he lacks the outstanding athleticism and big play ability to get into the upper echelon of fantasy TEs. Guys like Day can become startable if they become a favorite target for their QB, and Day should at least be a decent fantasy backup TE. Tim had a very good week at East West Shrine Game. His combine was decent, but basically confirmed that he’s more of the stationary target kind of TE.
70(50). Reggie McNeal, QB, Texas A&M - I don't think he'll make it a QB, but guys who are over 6 feet and can run in the sub 4.4 range don't grow on trees - Reggie could be a great WR down the line. Had erratic week at Shrine practices, but was the clear star of the game. The conventional wisdom is starting to put Reggie at WR, but I’m not sure he can hack the transition, despite his elite top end speed.
71(61). Anthony Fasano, TE, Notre Dame - Fasano is definitely one of the best (if not best) two way TE in this draft, but he lacks the pure receiving skills of the TEs above him. This is somewhat offset by the fact that his blocking will keep him on the field a lot, and he still has above average receiving ability. He’s another terrific value pick late in your rookie drafts. Fasano did not run at the combine, but was decent in the quickness and explosion tests.
72(62). David Thomas, TE, Texas - I see him as a bigger, but less athletic and natural receiver version of Garrett Mills. Thomas still has good hands and is a powerful runner after the catch, but he lacks the speed to be a downfield threat, and the size to be a true end of the line TE. He was Vince Young's favorite target at UT, and like the rest of this cluster of 2nd tier TEs, he offers upside if he can settle into that kind of role in the pros. Thomas had one of the best vertical leaps of the TEs at the combine, but otherwise was in the middle of the pack.
73(74). Bernard Pollard, SS, Purdue - A big time hitter at strong safety, Pollard should put up good tackling numbers in the NFL. Part of a nice class of strong safeties, Pollard was one of the faster and more explosive SS prospects at the combine.
74(65). Tamba Hali, DE, Penn St. - Makes up for lack of elite tools with endless motor. He should be a starting quality fantasy DE. Hali had a good Senior Bowl, cementing first round status. He did not work out at the combine.
75(87). Rocky McIntosh, LB, Miami(FL) - This athletic LB showed a knack for being around the ball at Miami, and was the most outstanding LB all week at the Shrine Game McIntosh had the best vertical leap of any OLB at the combine. Durability questions keep Rocky in the 2nd tier of LBs.
76(67). Dale Robinson, LB, Arizona St. - "Manimal" is a beast of a tackler in the middle, a physical hitter that consistently made plays in the backfield this year. Lack of top timed speed puts him in the 2nd tier of LBs. Robinson was in the middle of the ILB pack at the combine, but that was expected for a guy whose main strength is his game play.
77(89). Gerris Wilkinson, LB, Georgia Tech - Wilkinson really enhanced his stock at the Senior Bowl with a solid week. He's got the frame to roam the middle and is a productive tackler. He's also played some at OLB and DE. Wilkinson was one of the two or three most athletic ILBs at the combine
78(37). Kai Parham, LB, Virginia – Kai is another player on this list who may have come out a year early. Parham’s offensive lineman 40 time at the combine is the reason for the free fall on this list, but he did lift more than any of the other ILBs.
79(71). Jimmy Williams, S/CB, Virginia Tech - Very similar situation as Huff, but has a lot more experience at CB. Williams did not work out at the combine, and the performances of Michael Huff and Jason Allen have set the bar very high for him.
80(72). Mathias Kiwanuka, DE, Boston College - The stock of this long-framed, very athletic DE has been dropping all year. He has been struggling with injuries and has never regained his elite status of 2004. He's still a very solid pick if you are looking to restock at DE. Kiwi showed the quickness and explosion you would expect from a top pass rushing prospect at the combine, but he was also one of the weakest in the bench press, around the level of the WRs.
81(58). Cory Rodgers, WR, TCU - Rodgers is still very raw as a WR and could have used another year in school, but this explosive top notch return man will contribute right away on special teams while his WR game develops. Rodgers combine numbers were very disappointing for a guy who looked so dynamic in college.
82(78). Mike Bell, RB, Arizona - Bell has the size and toughness you need to run between the tackles in the NFL, but I see him as a career backup type RB at best, because he lacks any single outstanding tool. Mike had an ok week at the Senior Bowl, but didn't distinguish himself. He had a decent all-around combine, but failed to exceed expectations.
83(81). Delanie Walker, WR, CMSU - Walker has a very intriguing mix of a powerful build (6'1' 232) and speed. He is very raw as a WR, but that unique package gives a WR coach a very interesting weapon to develop. Walker ran right around 4.5 at the combine, which is excellent for a guy his size.
84(NL). Ingle Martin, QB, Furman – Martin made as big a splash at the combine as any QB. The transfer from Florida displayed impressive arm strength and accuracy and is rising up out of obscurity and onto draft boards.
85(84). Michael Robinson, ???, Penn St - Robinson is going to help an NFL team win, I'm just not sure he'll help your fantasy team win. He could end up anywhere from safety to WR to 3rd down RB. Chances are he will be a non-factor for fantasy. Robinson has no shot at QB, this much is sure from his Senior Bowl. Still, he seems like a guy who could "get it" at WR down the line, and is a "football player" above all and a fun flier to take late in your draft. Robinson did not work out at the combine.
86(82). Terna Nande, LB, Miami-OH - This speed/strength/athleticism freak of an LB is sure to get some notice after his combine numbers make the rounds. Nande’s rare combination of top end speed, strength, and explosiveness was confirmed in Indianapolis, but he’s a project that lacks technique and good instincts.
87(85). Marcus Vick, QB, Virginia Tech - If you liked Maurice Clarett, you'll LOVE Marcus Vick. He's a big time risk to return absolutely nothing for your pick, but some GM, and someone in your league will be convinced that Vick will turn it around, so this low a ranking is basically a recommendation to pass on him. If by chance he does make it, he would pay dividends as a running fantasy QB that is more balanced his brother, but not as explosive. Vick showed his athleticism at the combine, but reports about his interviews were mixed at best.
88(86). Skyler Green, WR, LSU - Poor Skyler. He had the bad luck of playing next to Sinorice Moss in the Senior Bowl. Green will be a solid return man/slot receiver, but doesn't seem to have the natural WR skills to make an impact for fantasy. Green’s speed was middle of the road for WRs at the combine, which spells doom for a small WR. Green did not improve on his low 4.5s 40 time at the LSU pro day.
89(NL) Jon Alston, S/LB, Stanford – Alston showed a top notch package of speed, strength, quickness, and explosiveness at the combine. He could be on the Michael Boulware path – Alston showed good skills in coverage at the Shrine Game and is undersized for an NFL LB.
90(76). Greg Blue, SS/LB, Georgia - Coming off a so-so showing at the Senior Bowl, this big fast hitter of a safety is similar to Dwayne Slay in that he may lack the natural coverage skills to stay at safety. Blue was not very impressive at the combine, whether you stack him against the safety or LB prospects.
91(90). Freddie Roach, LB, Alabama - Big physical ILB optimistically projects as a Jeremiah Trotter type tackling machine because his rugged style allows him to take on blockers and get through traffic. Freddie had a strong Senior Bowl, overshadowing his highly touted Tide teammate, DeMeco Ryans. Roach was right there with Parham among the slowest ILBs at the combine, but that was expected.
92(NL). James Anderson, LB, Virginia Tech – Anderson was yet another ultra-athletic LB at the combine. He was among the quickest and most explosive LBs in Indianapolis.
93(93). A.J. Harris, RB, NIU - The 3rd RB on this list that was playing in the shadow of other RBs during his career, Harris has been stuck behind Michael Turner and Garrett Wolfe. He has the size/speed/inside running combo to work at the NFL level. Harris did not get invited to the combine.
94(NL). Erik Meyer, QB, Eastern Washington – Meyer is a tough, “do whatever it takes” kind of QB. He had an excellent combine, showing good athleticism and arm strength. He got himself in the late round developmental QB mix, and his tenacity makes me think he’s got a shot to a make it, at least enough for a late round flyer in your rookie drafts.
95(95). Gerald Riggs, RB, Tennessee - The RB that outplayed Cedric Houston in 2004 has experienced a tumble in value in 2005 due to a serious leg injury and mediocre play. Riggs has the frame, vision, and bloodline, but he looks like a backup RB in the pros at best to me. Riggs did not work out at the combine, questions about his injury linger.
96(96). David Anderson, WR, Colorado St. - Anderson is known for having some of the best hands in all of college football, but he looks like only a slot/possession WR type in the pros to me, due his size and lack of top end speed. He was very consistent in the East West Shrine practices, and will help whatever team he lands on, but he's a longshot to make a fantasy impact. Anderson’s combine numbers did not stand out.
97(NL). Chris Gocong, DE/OLB, Cal Poly – Gocong is a guy I’ve had my eye on since the Shrine game, where he showed relentless pursuit of the QB when he got free. He showed the quickness at the combine to convert to 3-4 OLB. Gocong dominated at the I-AA level, following his teammate Jordan Beck in winning the Buck Buchanan award, basically a defensive Heisman award.
98(NL). Tony Scheffler, TE, Western Michigan – Scheffler’s size, speed, quickness, and long frame turned heads at the combine. He’s the most interesting developmental TE in the draft.
99(NL). Clint Ingram, LB, Oklahoma – I’ve always thought of Ingram as more of a gamer that lacked top athleticism, but he was one of the quicker LBs at the combine, and had one of the best verticals.
100(NL) Jeff Webb, WR, San Diego St. – I was not impressed with Webb at the Shrine Game, but he flashed top notch speed and quickness for a taller WR and has to be considered as at least a deep sleeper. I don’t know if Webb plays as fast as he was timed, and he doesn’t seem like the physical type of WR, so I’m skeptical, but he deserves a spot in the 100 after his excellent combine.
DROPPED OUT (with previous rank):
80. Dwayne Slay, SS/LB, Texas Tech - Maybe the most vicious hitter in this draft, Slay might also lack the technique and discipline to stay in the defensive backfield in the pros. I see him as a slower version of Thomas Davis. Dropped out because he was one of the slowest, least athletic safeties at the combine.
83. Devin Hester, CB/WR, Miami-Fl - My gut says that Hester's speed will go to waste, and he will simply be a return specialist in the NFL. He hasn't really progressed at CB at Miami, and I'm skeptical that he'll ever be startable on offense. Still, I can't keep him off this list, because his speed represents big-time upside at WR if he ever "gets it". Dropped out because his 40 time didn’t stand out from the pack. He did get into the 4.3s at Miami pro day.
88. A.J. Nicholson, LB, Florida St. - A.J. was on his way to being a rising star in the draft before a sexual assault complaint was made against him at the Orange Bowl. His stock is dropping, but he's a top notch physical tackler at LB and should be a productive pro. Lack of elite timed speed puts him in the 2nd tier of LBs. Dropped out because he was extremely slow at the combine.
91. Stephen Tulloch, LB, NC State - Another LB that seems to always be around the play. Played in the middle at NC State, but could be in for a transition to WLB. Dropped out because he was slower than expected at the combine.
92. Kevin Simon, LB, Tennessee - A boom/bust LB, Simon has shown the ability to be a true 3 down LB in college. He's also missed the better parts of two seasons with injuries. A clean bill of health at the combine will send him up this list with a bullet. Dropped out because his combine performance made it clear that injuries have permanently robbed him of his upside.
94. Drew Olson, QB, UCLA - You might not find someone more down on Olson than I am. I know he was productive at UCLA this year, coming off a severe knee injury, but he just looks feeble to me in the pocket. I have to rank him because of how efficient he was during the year, but he looked like a bust to me during the EW Shrine week. Dropped out because he was the most underwhelming athlete of all the QBs at the combine.
97. Freddie Keiaho, LB, SD St - Freddie racked up tackles like no one's business for the Aztecs, averaging around 10 a game in the middle vacated by Kirk Morrison. He's a former RB that can chase plays down all over the field. Dropped out because he was tiny for an ILB at the combine.
98. Barrick Nealy, QB/WR, Texas St - This rugged strong arm small school QB was really unmasked at the Hula Bowl as having little potential at QB. He was supposed to play more at WR, but an injury forced him to work almost the whole week at QB. Tall, physical, and a good open field runner, Nealy is an interesting WR prospect, and I'll move him up this list if he is drafted as a WR. Dropped out because he failed to make as big an impression at the combine as others. Still an interesting long term prospect.
99. Troy Bergeron, WR, Arena League - Bergeron has track speed and was a very productive receiver in the AFL. He's very raw at WR because the AFL is such a different game for receivers, but he's got very intriguing tools. Dropped out because other players had a chance to make an impression at the combine.
100. Tarvaris Jackson, QB, Alabama St. - Jackson showed NFL tools all week at the Shrine Game, but he also showed maddening inconsistency. He is a project that may return nothing, but his tools give him a shot to be a top QB if it all comes together. He dropped out because he wasn’t as athletic as I expected him to be at the combine. Still an interesting long term prospect.
At this stage of the game, slotting some of these guys is agonizingly tough and somewhat arbitrary. I could put the 2nd tier RBs in just about any order and slot them anywhere from 5 to 13 until we know their destinations. Particularly hard is slotting the 5-13 tier, and the 25-40 tier. Somewhere around 70 or 80 we get to the longer shots and there are 30-40 players that didn’t make the list who arguably deserve a mention.
All star games and the combine/pro days are only one piece of the puzzle. Draft destination and news out of training camp can totally change my perspective on the chances of success for a player. I’ve tried to include rumored destinations where there has been some consensus in the chatter. My gut feeling about some of these guys continues evolve, and I know that some of the views I have right now will look foolish in 6 months. A player moving up or down on the list may not be strictly based on combine performance. Qualifications out of the way, this is how I’d rank them at the moment:
Notes:
• Rankings assume PPR, TE required leagues, start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, DT/DE and CB/S broken out, no TE or IDP premium.
• Previous rank in parenthesis next to current rank
• Reports of combine numbers have varied, and the official numbers on NFL.com are incomplete.
• Some notes are from the 1st edition – I’ve added combine notes and some additional thoughts
• I’ve added upside and downside compares for the top 25.
• Players who were not ranked in the previous rookie 100 are noted with a NL in place of a previous ranking.
1(1). Reggie Bush, RB, USC - Believe the hype. I think he’s Marshall Faulk with a 5th gear. He will be the centerpiece of the offense wherever he ends up. Houston still seems like the most likely destination - it doesn’t worry me, Bush’s talent is transcendent. He’s a top 10 dynasty RB in my mind right now. Faulk had no trouble reaching the fantasy elite without getting 300 carries, and neither will Bush. His receiving skills, change of direction, and speed are elite. He might be light, but he does not run like a scatback, he finishes every run and fights for extra yards.
Upside: Marshall Faulk
Downside: Brian Westbrook
2(2). DeAngelo Williams, RB, Memphis – DeAngelo cemented his franchise RB status with a near spotless week at the Senior Bowl. There are some questions about his ability/willingness to run inside – he likes to bounce the run outside, but will he consistently beat NFL defenders to the corner? DeAngelo looks like a natural feature back in all other aspects of his game. He was a little bigger at the combine and had the second most bench press reps of the RBs, which should help ease concerns about his ability to pass protect. A lot of mocks have him going to Atlanta. I see him having the same current value as Ronnie Brown or Cadillac Williams at this time next year. One caveat: Williams has the spottiest durability record of the top 4 RBs.
Upside: Curtis Martin
Downside: Thomas Jones
3(3). LenDale White, RB, USC - One of the best north-south RB prospects in a long time. His situation could vault him over Williams. If he ends up on a winning team, 20+ TDs is not out of the question. He was a little heavy at the combine, but that doesn’t bother me.
Upside: Jerome Bettis
Downside: T.J. Duckett
4(4). Laurence Maroney, RB, Minnesota - Could end up with the best situation of the top 4 RBs. Maroney’s hamstring kept him from working out at the combine, so we’ll have to wait to see how his numbers stack up. Indianapolis comes up frequently in speculation about his possible home. He’s firmly in the 4 spot and I wouldn’t argue with him at 2 if he lands in Indy. Maroney is not polished enough to be an everydown RB and needs to work on blocking and receiving.
Upside: Edgerrin James
Downside: Tatum Bell
5(5). Vince Young, QB, Texas – He’s a great runner at QB, but not a run-first QB. Vince should be top 10 QB at worst, with top 3-5 upside. He has the skillset to be a true fantasy stud at QB, and that is becoming a rare commodity. Even if he completely busts as a QB, he will be an elite NFL WR. The wonderlic fiasco has come and gone, and it doesn’t change my view of him. Tennessee and Oakland are the names I see the most, but there are reasons to think Oakland would not take a QB, and Tennessee may prefer D’brickashaw Ferguson (they released Brad Hopkins, their former starting left tackle). I really have no idea where he’ll end up right now, although the Jets and Titans are planning on working him out.
Upside: Randall Cunningham
Downside: Michael Vick(Matt Jones)
6(7). Santonio Holmes, WR, Ohio St. – Holmes is a speedy WR with the moves and deep ball skills to be a gamebreaker. He’s is the surest thing at WR in the draft, but lacks the unlimited upside of elite prospects in previous years. The ball is in Holmes’s court to seize the #1 WR slot after Chad Jackson’s combine. I slightly prefer Holmes because of his shiftiness and better polish, but it’s very close. I see Philadelphia, Dallas, and San Diego taking him a lot in mock drafts, but I’m not sure I buy any of those places as his destination. Holmes was in the mid 4.3s on a fast track at the OSU pro day.
Upside: Santana Moss
Downside: Peter Warrick
7(9). Chad Jackson, WR, Florida – He’s got the size/speed combo to be a true #1, and the biggest upside of any WR in this draft. His combine 40 was one of the biggest stories to come out of Indianapolis, and when you combine that with a strong, thick build, you get a possible fantasy stud. The deeper we get into the first, the harder it becomes to predict destination, but Denver certainly seems possible to me.
Upside: Javon Walker
Downside: Kevin Dyson
8(11). Vernon Davis, TE, Maryland – He’s a Ben Watson-esque freak of nature, but more physical than Watson. Here’s your star of the combine. Davis’s size/speed/strength combo was staggering as expected. He has the speed and explosion of a wide receiver and the strength of an offensive lineman. If your league is TE premium, I could see taking him 5th , as he’s got the potential to be “Antonio Gates on crack” (thanks to bob magaw). He could go anywhere from San Francisco at 6 to St. Louis at 11, but I don’t see him falling much farther.
Upside: Antonio Gates
Downside: Ben Watson
9(8). Matt Leinart, QB, USC – Matt lacks the big arm and running ability to break the elite tier of fantasy QBs, but will be a solid starting fantasy QB (See: Brees, Pennington) at worst, and could be another Tom Brady. New Orleans seems like the favorite to land him, but there’s recent news that the Jets want to work him out, and the Saints are making a play for Brees.
Upside: Tom Brady
Downside: Drew Brees
10(14). Joseph Addai, RB, LSU - Versatile RB, situation is crucial - will he be asked to be a full time RB? He had a good week at Senior Bowl practices. Addai really aced the combine, showing the best speed and explosion of any RB tested. He’s got the most ideal feature back frame of the 2nd tier RBs, and probably the highest upside, although he was the least productive in college. He’s also got the skills to stay on the field on 3rd down. His stock is on the rise.
Upside: Domanick Davis
Downside: James Jackson
11(6). Brian Calhoun, RB, Wisconsin –Brian is a burner who runs tough for a little guy. Like Maroney, he could easily end up in best immediate situation of the rookie RBs. Probably not a true feature back, but could definitely be a Dunn/Garner type for fantasy. Calhoun ran a 4.6 at the combine, then followed it up with a 4.38 in Madison at his pro day. He still did well in the quickness tests and had one of the best broad jumps of the RB group. Calhoun did not drop as much as others caught him – almost all of the top 15 that worked out at the combine exceeded expectations, while Calhoun did not.
Upside: Warrick Dunn
Downside: Maurice Morris
12(15). Jerome Harrison, RB, Washington St.– Jerome’s a productive, small, elusive back but he lacks breakaway speed. He overcame doubts at his size at Senior Bowl weigh-in with tremendous work on the final drive of the game. Harrison’s 40 time was good, and his all important 10 and 20 yard times were among the top of the class at the combine. His quickness drills were #1 among RBs tested and backed up his reputation as an extremely shifty back.
Upside: Tiki Barber
Downside: J.J. Arrington
13(10). Maurice Drew, RB, UCLA – He’s a smaller version of Reggie Bush. Drew ran a 4.39 at the combine and the fact that he is very sturdily built for a short back was noted by observers. He has made the most eye-popping plays of any of the 2nd tier RBs. Some will take him earlier because of the impression his highlight reel leaves. I’m rooting for him, and might be persuaded to bump him as high as 5th if he ends up somewhere that won’t cast him as part of an RBBC.
Upside: poor man’s Barry Sanders
Downside: Amos Zereoue
14(13). A.J. Hawk, LB, Ohio St. - A surefire stud LB. I won't argue with him in the single digits if you need an LB badly. Don’t think that Hawk did not do well at the combine because he dropped a spot, he had one of the best all around workouts in recent memory. His quickness numbers would have been elite if he was an RB – and he’s 6’1” 250. Think about that for a second. He just has the fantasy limitation of playing LB, capping his upside around the value of a top 8 TE, decent WR2, or RBBC RB, no matter how well he does. The Packers and 49ers are possible destinations for Hawk.
Upside: Brian Urlacher
Downside: Brian Bosworth
15(12). Marcedes Lewis, TE, UCLA - Basically an oversized WR at TE. Will be featured in the passing attack wherever he lands. Some are souring on him because of lack of speed. He showed better than advertised blocking in the Senior Bowl. Lewis was among the slowest of the TEs in Indianapolis in the 40 yard dash and his short shuttle time was offensive lineman speed. I still like him as a nice short/intermediate target and I have no doubt he’ll be a startable fantasy TE. There are plenty of teams that could use a receiving TE – Cincinnati, Chicago, and Carolina come to mind immediately.
Upside: Todd Heap
Downside: Jerremy Stevens
16(16). Jay Cutler, QB, Vanderbilt - Athleticism and cannon gives him more fantasy upside than Leinart, but he carries much more risk. Mixed reviews of Senior Bowl practices. Cutler had a good combine and showed exceptional strength for a QB. The Titans and Jets are mentioned a lot with Cutler.
Upside: Steve McNair
Downside: Kyle Boller
17(22). Jerious Norwood, RB, Mississippi St - Norwood=Speed - Willie parker-type who could pay off in the right situation. Norwood had a terrific combine and really put himself in the 2nd tier RB mix. I still don’t see him as an everydown back, but Norwood has shown that he is every bit the athlete as the other 2nd tier backs.
Upside: Julius Jones
Downside: Ryan Moats
18(17). Sinorice Moss, WR, Miami(FL) – Santana’s little brother will be a stud IF he refines his WR skills. Sinorice looked like the fastest guy at the Senior Bowl. Moss’s 40 time was not quite up to Jackson’s but he was the best in 10 and 20 yards, confirming his top notch acceleration off the line. He’s still a risk because of his small stature and lack of use at Miami, but the success of very similar WRs lately gets him a top 20 slot. Moss showed off a 42” vertical leap at Miami pro day, mitigating some of the concerns about his height.
Upside: Steve Smith
Downside: Roscoe Parrish
19(21). Brandon Marshall, WR, Central Florida - I know I'm not the only one to have drank the kool aid on this big, physical WR. Marshall was dominant in the postseason. He ran in the 4.5s at the combine, faster than expected. It’s hard for me to contain my enthusiasm about this guy, the “it” quality is there. Marshall plays with the “my ball” mentality that so many of the top WRs have.
Upside: Terrell Owens
Downside: Kelley Washington
20(18). Demetrius Williams, WR, Oregon – Willams has big play potential to hang with any WR in the draft, but he needs to bulk up and become more physical to succeed in the NFL. Demetrius showed great hands in Senior Bowl practices. Williams’s combine results confirmed his explosiveness, and he was also one of the quickest WRs in Indy.
Upside: poor man’s Chad Johnson
Downside: Brandon Lloyd
21(19). Dominique Byrd, TE, USC – Dominique was underused at USC. He can do damage downfield as well as any TE in the draft. His Senior Bowl week boosted his stock. Byrd did not participate in the combine. He made it into the first in Kiper’s last mock.
Upside: Alge Crumpler
Downside: Jermaine Wiggins
22(34). Martin Nance, WR, Miami(OH) – Martin a big aggressive WR, but he seemed tentative in the Senior Bowl. He still has latent upside coming off a 2004 ACL tear. I’ve had a bit of a change of heart about Nance since the combine. His 4.55 was good for a guy less than 2 years removed from a severe knee injury, and while the rest of his numbers fell a little short of the rest of the class, I’m convinced that he’ll be sharper in the fall. He has jumped to the top of a 3rd tier WR class filled with question marks.
Upside: Plaxico Burress
Downside: Billy McMullen
23(23). Omar Jacobs, QB, Bowling Green – Omar has the tools to be an elite fantasy QB. He could be a great value in a league that cherishes QBs so much coming off a down year. Jacobs had a very solid combine and displayed that his funky delivery gets results
Upside: Daunte Culpepper
Downside: Josh McCown
24(28). Ernie Sims, LB, Florida St. - As a 4-3 chase WLB, Sims could put up stats with any LB in the draft. Ernie really stood out in the OLB group at the combine as an explosive prospect at LB. Minnesota, Tampa Bay, and the Giants all seem possible to me.
Upside: Derrick Brooks
Downside: Boss Bailey
25(20). Chad Greenway, LB, Iowa – Chad projects as 4-3 WLB, and should put up big time tackle numbers. He impressed in Senior Bowl practices. Greenway looked good in drills at the combine, but his measureables failed to impress. He should be a solid mid first pick in April.
Upside: Keith Brooking
Downside: Brian Simmons
26(27). Jonathan Orr, WR, Wisconsin – Orr has a size/speed package to hang with any WR in the draft, but he's a project (severely underused at Wisconsin) and needs to become more consistent. He had an up and down week at the East West Shrine Game before getting hurt. Orr’s top end speed was confirmed at the combine, and he had times in the mid 4.2s on a fast track at Wisconsin’s pro day.
27(30). Maurice Stovall, WR, Notre Dame – Maurice really enhanced his stock at Senior Bowl by dropping weight and showing good hands. He won’t be a gamebreaker, but he projects as a solid starting NFL WR if his development continues at the same pace as his senior year. Stovall was not among the faster wide receivers at the combine, but that was expected. His quickness numbers were very good for a tall WR. He’s got plenty of upside as Charlie Weis was just beginning to develop him in his senior year.
28(31). Mike Hass, WR, Oregon St. - The most dependable WR in this draft. Hass won't wow you with tools, but always gets the job done. Mike had a great East West Shrine Game performance. Hass was among the slowest WRs at the combine, but his excellence as a technician at WR was on display in the drills. His downside is that he may end up being a possession WR in the NFL, but he’s physical and has exceeded expectations at every point in his career.
29(38). Travis Wilson, WR, Oklahoma - Another favorite sleeper at WR – Travis has the athleticism to be a good NFL WR. He was overshadowed at Oklahoma, and banged up this year. The Senior Bowl week showed that Wilson needs refinement, but that he also has the tools to be a quality NFL WR. Wilson was one of the two quickest WRs at the combine and is not a small WR at 6’2” 214.
30(41). Greg Jennings, WR, Western Michigan - Very solid smallish WR lacking top end speed. He was a gamebreaker at WMU, but seemed average athletically in the East West Shrine WR group. Jennings had a nice all around combine, and he’s starting to grow on me. He’s one of the only WRs in the class that have both big play ability and a solid technical foundation.
31(32). Leonard Pope, TE, Georgia - This ranking will shock people, but I am down on Pope as a fantasy TE. He just seems stiff, not so much a big play guy or a future featured target in a passing offense. However, he will still be a useful fantasy TE at worst. Pope was great in the explosion tests and had one of the best 40 times among the TEs. Unfortunately, his shuttle time was very slow, almost as slow as Marcedes Lewis.
32(33). DeMeco Ryans, LB, Alabama - The LB version of Hass. A lack of elite athleticism caps his upside, but he will be productive at the next level. His lack of top end speed/size/strength really showed at Senior Bowl. Ryans showed surprisingly good explosion numbers at the combine, and his 40 and quickness times were respectable.
33(24). D'Qwell Jackson, LB, Maryland – D’Qwell should be a QB of the defense MLB, or 4-3 WLB. He had a terrific week at Senior Bowl. Jackson’s combine was solid across the board and he is still one of the top 2 prospects at ILB.
34(25). Abdul Hodge, LB, Iowa – This big thumper in the middle should rack up tackles in the mold of Jeremiah Trotter. Hodge’s combine numbers won’t jump out at you, but his value is as an instinctive and determined LB, which doesn’t show up in measureables. He and Jackson only dropped because some offensive players are more intriguing after flashing surprising tools at the combine.
35(36). De'Arrius Howard, RB, Arkansas - My favorite sleeper RB. Backup for the Hogs, but has the size/speed/inside running combo to be successful in the NFL. He blew away the competition all week at the Shrine Game. No combine invite, but I still see him as a sleeper with a high upside in the right offense.
36(35). Taurean Henderson, RB, Texas Tech - Already one of the best receiving RBs in the draft, Henderson showed solid ability to run out of an I formation in the East West Shrine Game. None of Henderson’s combine numbers were impressive, but his college production puts him in the sleeper RB tier. The Patriots have been mentioned as an interested team.
37(NL). Andre Hall, RB, South Florida – Hall was blazing fast at the combine, which is a revelation because lack of a 2nd gear was considered a weakness of his. He’s a decent RB running on the inside, and his unknown speed makes him a nice sleeper in the 3rd tier of RBs.
38(55). Jason Avant, WR, Michigan – This steady WR projects as a possession WR, something that deflates his ranking in a class of a lot of intriguing athletes at WR. Avant had an up and down week at the Senior Bowl - pulling out of a tailspin in the middle of the week. He will be more valuable for real football than fantasy. I was a little harsh on Avant after the Senior Bowl. He looked a lot sharper in the drills at the combine, although he only did the jumps among the measureable tests. He projects a solid #2 for the next level and will be good depth in dynasty leagues.
39(26). Greg Lee, WR, Pitt – This big play WR’s stock would have been a lot higher at end of last year. Lee is one of the few WR in this draft with potential to be the #1 WR – a true go-to target anywhere on the field. Lee had a very slow 40 time at the combine, but his quickness numbers were nice. He probably should have stayed in school for his senior year.
40(39). Leon Washington, RB, Florida St – Leon has elite pass catching skills out of the backfield, but durability/size issues seem to indicate that he won't be able to be a feature back. Washington was very impressive all week at the Shrine Game, looking like an NFL veteran. Washington confirmed top straight line speed at the combine, but I can’t see him getting out of the 3rd down back role in the pros.
41(40). Derek Hagan, WR, Arizona - Productive as any WR in this draft in college, but I just can't get excited about guys like Hagan because of his limited upside. Hagan’s hands were suspect all week at the Senior Bowl. Derek was way faster than anyone expected at the combine, but I haven’t seen him actually play that fast. His hands problems surfaced again in Indianapolis. Still, he’s not that far below Jon Orr despite the disparity in rankings – the 3rd tier of WRs is that tight.
42(42). Manny Lawson, OLB/DE, NC St. – His long frame, leaping ability, and closing speed will give QBs nightmares. Manny has pure football upside to match the LBs above him, but he will be stuck at 3-4 OLB, which is not a high tackle position. He really made a splash all week at the Senior Bowl. The speed that will make him a terror of an edge rusher was confirmed at the combine. A move to 4-3 DE would drop him on this list.
43(43). Mario Williams, DE, NC St - Has a chance to be a top 5-10 DE with his elite tools, but DEs are not a premium in most IDP dynasty leagues. I could see taking him 10-15 picks higher if you need a DE badly or if your league rewards sacks heavily. A sickening combine, guys that are 6’7” 300 should not as fast, quick, and explosive as Mario.
44(56). Thomas Howard, LB, UTEP - Athletically, he's right there with anyone in this LB class, but he lacks advanced instincts and is not the most physical LB. Howard had a solid week at the Senior Bowl. His terrific combine confirmed his elite athletic package.
45(66). Donte Whitner, SS, Ohio St. - Whitner has a scary speed/hitting combination for a safety. He can rush the QB, bring down the INT, and blow up plays all over the place with his 4.4 speed. I wouldn't be that surprised if he ends up being the best fantasy safety from this draft. Donte is moving up draft boards. He was slightly faster on OSU’s fast track than at the combine. Whitner also showed great explosion at the combine.
46(54). Garrett Mills, FB/TE, Tulsa - If this guy lands on a team with a creative offensive coordinator, watch out. He was ultraproductive as a receiver and has some of the best hands, regardless of position, in this whole draft class. Prepare to get tired of Chris Cooley comparisons. Mills worked mostly on the transition to FB at Senior Bowl. Mills’s combine was one of the most athletic of any TE prospect. If he gets used correctly by the team that drafts him, he has the potential to be a quality fantasy TE.
47(29). Todd Watkins, WR, BYU - Track star type size/speed deep threat WR could become Ashley Lelie or could become Todd Pinkston. Todd shook off a bad year with great week at the East West Shrine game. His speed was confirmed at combine, but I’m beginning so sour on him because you need to be physical to be more than a role player at WR.
48(49). Hank Baskett, WR, New Mexico – Hank’s a big, physical, jumpball lovin' WR. He had a disastrous week at the Senior Bowl, looking slow and stiff. Baskett was faster than expected at the combine, but he still seems to have the stiffness of a TE.
49(47). Bobby Carpenter, LB, Ohio St. - Like Lawson, Carpenter could be as good a football player as many LBs above him on this list, but he seems destined to be a 3-4 OLB or 4-3 SLB, which does not bode well for fantasy. His broken ankle looked good on OSU pro day. Cowboys and Pats seem possible.
50(64). Kamerion Wimbley, DE/OLB, Florida St - This tweener is not quite the freakish athlete that Manny Lawson is, but he's got good pass rush skills and should be productive in a 3-4 scheme. He had a good Senior Bowl and will go on the first day, limitations of 3-4 OLB stats keeps him low on this list. Kamerion had a good all-around combine and confirmed that he’s got the athleticism to make the switch to OLB.
51(52). Brad Smith, QB/WR/RB, Missouri - Smith has terrific open field running skills and is a born leader, but is without a position as he doesn't project well as a QB at the next level - his Hula Bowl week seemed to cinch this. He's a gamebreaker and should eventually play a role in an offense somewhere, but he's highly speculative. Great pick if you love boom/bust types. Smith confirmed a very good athletic package at the combine. He’s still insisting on working out at as a QB.
52(48). Brandon Williams, WR, Wisconsin - A smallish WR that lacks top end speed to mitigate size questions. Brandon is similar to Greg Jennings, but he’s smaller and less consistent. He had brilliant start to EW Shrine Game week in practices, but was barely heard from in the game. Williams did not exceed expectations at the combine, but showed he had good (but not elite) quickness and speed.
53(60). Bruce Gradkowski, QB, Toledo - The 2nd MAC QB on the list, Gradkowski has top intangibles and is very accurate and mobile. He's fast enough to get some decent rushing stats, always a bonus for fantasy QBs. He doesn't have a cannon, but this could be overcome in a west coast offense scheme. Bruce vaguely reminds me of Jeff Garcia. He had a good week of practice at the East West Shrine Game, but threw some floaters in the actual game. Gradkowski was one of the fastest QBs at the combine.
54(45). Paul Pinegar, QB, Fresno St. – Paul’s really an ideal west coast offense QB with his size, smarts, and arm. He had an impeccable week of practice at the Shrine Game, but played badly in the actual game. His stock is falling slightly – combine confirmed that he was a stationary pocket QB.
55(59). Joel Klopfenstein, TE, Colorado - Another of the nice 2nd tier of TEs in this class that will be good depth with some upside. All of these guys are value picks in the later rounds. Joel is more of a receiving TE, but he showed off his blocking and receiving skills in the Senior Bowl. Joel was one of the fastest and strongest TEs at the combine.
56(70). Michael Huff, S/CB, Texas - Huff's eventual position will make all the difference in his ranking. If the versatile DB is slotted at FS, He moves up 10-15 slots. At CB, he nearly falls off the list. This ranking splits the difference. Huff absolutely hit the combine out of the park, putting himself in the “franchise player” tier of the draft.
57(53). Cedric Humes, RB, Virginia Tech – Cedric doesn't have the speed of De’Arrius Howard, but is otherwise similar – a big power runner with good speed and vision that was overshadowed by other players in college. Humes is a gamer (played with a broken arm) and had a solid Senior Bowl week. Situation could vault him 20-25 spots on this list (PIT, NE, CAR). Humes did not impress at the combine, his numbers were basically in the expected range.
58(44). Darnell Bing, S, USC – He’s one of the elite options with top 10 upside at a position which doesn’t carry a real premium in IDP leagues. Darnell did LB and S position drills at combine, but didn’t run. Apparently his shoulder had to be checked out again. Bing was very quick for a large true strong safety type, but his durability issues are starting to concern me.
59(51). Ko Simpson, S, South Carolina - Excellent all around safety is better in coverage than Bing, but not as big a hitter or playmaker. I wouldn't argue if you ranked him #1 among safeties, but Whitner, Allen, Ko, Huff, and Bing all have stud potential. Ko is 22, but came out as a sophomore. He displayed a very nice all around athletic package at the combine, but was overshadowed by the other elite safeties.
60(69). Marques Colston, WR, Hofstra - Small school sleeper alert. Colston is a tall, somewhat slight WR who made a big splash at the East West Shrine Game. Marques has more upside than most players in the bottom 50. He was faster than expected at the combine, and showed a nice fluid style in the drills, although his rawness also showed on numerous drops.
61(68). Brodie Croyle, QB, Alabama - Croyle was not as big a story as Cutler at the Senior Bowl, but he did just as much to enhance his stock with his arm, intelligence, and intangibles. I still can't get behind him as a good pick because he looks like the kind of QB that is going to be broken in two in the NFL. I was a little harsh on Brodie at first, he’s solidly in the 2nd tier of QBs, and someone will give him a shot down the line.
62(63). Charlie Whitehurst, QB, Clemson - If Whitehurst exhibited better decision-making over the course of his college career, he'd be a lot higher on this list. He's got an ideal QB frame, good arm, and decent mobility. He made a good showing at the Senior Bowl despite recent throwing shoulder surgery. He’s a boom/bust pick. Charlie confirmed his nice athleticism for such a big QB at the combine.
63(73). Terrence Whitehead, RB, Oregon - I see this tough, versatile back as a Verron Haynes type FB/RB tweener. Still, those guys get chances to carry the load because of injuries in the NFL, and sometimes seize them. What I particularly like about him is that he loves contact and knows how to finish a run. He's a longshot to make a fantasy impact, but watching him run over guys at the Senior Bowl just like he has all year convinced me that he's worth a late pick. Whitehead was one of the slowest RBs at the combine, but his rugged running style should offset that a bit. Matt Waldman threw out a Duce Staley comparison, which sounds right to me for Whitehead’s upside.
64(NL). Jason Allen, DB, Tennessee – Welcome back Jason – Allen showed an elite athletic package less than 6 months after a gruesome hip dislocation. He’s soaring up draft boards everywhere. Like Huff, he could play either safety or cornerback in the NFL.
65(75). Kellen Clemens, QB, Oregon - The light bulb really came on for Clemens when the spread offense was instituted this year. Too bad the smart, elusive, quick draw QB's season ended early with an ankle injury. It was severe enough that he still couldn’t do the tests at the combine, but this could be just what you need to steal him late in your rookie drafts. Clemens threw very well at the combine and is starting to show up on most draftniks radar.
66(79). Daniel Bullocks, SS, Nebraska - Following his brother Josh (NO) to the pros, Bullocks had a very good week of practice at the Senior Bowl and projects as a very solid safety in the NFL. Bullocks was fast, quick, and explosive at the combine.
67(46). DonTrell Moore, RB, New Mexico - So productive in college and a natural runner, and I love his tenacity in the return from ACL surgery in only 9 months, but just not fast or elusive enough for a smallish back all week at the Shrine Game. Moore does have latent upside because he's still in the 2 year window of ACL recovery. He was slow at the combine and will need to get some of his speed back to make a difference at the next level.
68(77). Devin Aromashadu, WR, Auburn - Devin was somewhat overlooked at Auburn, but showed the combination of size, speed, and physical play to generate some interest during the Senior Bowl week. His style and situation reminds me of Brandon Jones last year. Devon’s 40 time turned heads at the combine, but I can’t get too excited about him because he doesn’t seem like a natural WR to me.
69(57). Tim Day, TE, Oregon - As a route runner and pure receiver, Day is not far behind the other TEs on this list. The reason he's so far below them is that he lacks the outstanding athleticism and big play ability to get into the upper echelon of fantasy TEs. Guys like Day can become startable if they become a favorite target for their QB, and Day should at least be a decent fantasy backup TE. Tim had a very good week at East West Shrine Game. His combine was decent, but basically confirmed that he’s more of the stationary target kind of TE.
70(50). Reggie McNeal, QB, Texas A&M - I don't think he'll make it a QB, but guys who are over 6 feet and can run in the sub 4.4 range don't grow on trees - Reggie could be a great WR down the line. Had erratic week at Shrine practices, but was the clear star of the game. The conventional wisdom is starting to put Reggie at WR, but I’m not sure he can hack the transition, despite his elite top end speed.
71(61). Anthony Fasano, TE, Notre Dame - Fasano is definitely one of the best (if not best) two way TE in this draft, but he lacks the pure receiving skills of the TEs above him. This is somewhat offset by the fact that his blocking will keep him on the field a lot, and he still has above average receiving ability. He’s another terrific value pick late in your rookie drafts. Fasano did not run at the combine, but was decent in the quickness and explosion tests.
72(62). David Thomas, TE, Texas - I see him as a bigger, but less athletic and natural receiver version of Garrett Mills. Thomas still has good hands and is a powerful runner after the catch, but he lacks the speed to be a downfield threat, and the size to be a true end of the line TE. He was Vince Young's favorite target at UT, and like the rest of this cluster of 2nd tier TEs, he offers upside if he can settle into that kind of role in the pros. Thomas had one of the best vertical leaps of the TEs at the combine, but otherwise was in the middle of the pack.
73(74). Bernard Pollard, SS, Purdue - A big time hitter at strong safety, Pollard should put up good tackling numbers in the NFL. Part of a nice class of strong safeties, Pollard was one of the faster and more explosive SS prospects at the combine.
74(65). Tamba Hali, DE, Penn St. - Makes up for lack of elite tools with endless motor. He should be a starting quality fantasy DE. Hali had a good Senior Bowl, cementing first round status. He did not work out at the combine.
75(87). Rocky McIntosh, LB, Miami(FL) - This athletic LB showed a knack for being around the ball at Miami, and was the most outstanding LB all week at the Shrine Game McIntosh had the best vertical leap of any OLB at the combine. Durability questions keep Rocky in the 2nd tier of LBs.
76(67). Dale Robinson, LB, Arizona St. - "Manimal" is a beast of a tackler in the middle, a physical hitter that consistently made plays in the backfield this year. Lack of top timed speed puts him in the 2nd tier of LBs. Robinson was in the middle of the ILB pack at the combine, but that was expected for a guy whose main strength is his game play.
77(89). Gerris Wilkinson, LB, Georgia Tech - Wilkinson really enhanced his stock at the Senior Bowl with a solid week. He's got the frame to roam the middle and is a productive tackler. He's also played some at OLB and DE. Wilkinson was one of the two or three most athletic ILBs at the combine
78(37). Kai Parham, LB, Virginia – Kai is another player on this list who may have come out a year early. Parham’s offensive lineman 40 time at the combine is the reason for the free fall on this list, but he did lift more than any of the other ILBs.
79(71). Jimmy Williams, S/CB, Virginia Tech - Very similar situation as Huff, but has a lot more experience at CB. Williams did not work out at the combine, and the performances of Michael Huff and Jason Allen have set the bar very high for him.
80(72). Mathias Kiwanuka, DE, Boston College - The stock of this long-framed, very athletic DE has been dropping all year. He has been struggling with injuries and has never regained his elite status of 2004. He's still a very solid pick if you are looking to restock at DE. Kiwi showed the quickness and explosion you would expect from a top pass rushing prospect at the combine, but he was also one of the weakest in the bench press, around the level of the WRs.
81(58). Cory Rodgers, WR, TCU - Rodgers is still very raw as a WR and could have used another year in school, but this explosive top notch return man will contribute right away on special teams while his WR game develops. Rodgers combine numbers were very disappointing for a guy who looked so dynamic in college.
82(78). Mike Bell, RB, Arizona - Bell has the size and toughness you need to run between the tackles in the NFL, but I see him as a career backup type RB at best, because he lacks any single outstanding tool. Mike had an ok week at the Senior Bowl, but didn't distinguish himself. He had a decent all-around combine, but failed to exceed expectations.
83(81). Delanie Walker, WR, CMSU - Walker has a very intriguing mix of a powerful build (6'1' 232) and speed. He is very raw as a WR, but that unique package gives a WR coach a very interesting weapon to develop. Walker ran right around 4.5 at the combine, which is excellent for a guy his size.
84(NL). Ingle Martin, QB, Furman – Martin made as big a splash at the combine as any QB. The transfer from Florida displayed impressive arm strength and accuracy and is rising up out of obscurity and onto draft boards.
85(84). Michael Robinson, ???, Penn St - Robinson is going to help an NFL team win, I'm just not sure he'll help your fantasy team win. He could end up anywhere from safety to WR to 3rd down RB. Chances are he will be a non-factor for fantasy. Robinson has no shot at QB, this much is sure from his Senior Bowl. Still, he seems like a guy who could "get it" at WR down the line, and is a "football player" above all and a fun flier to take late in your draft. Robinson did not work out at the combine.
86(82). Terna Nande, LB, Miami-OH - This speed/strength/athleticism freak of an LB is sure to get some notice after his combine numbers make the rounds. Nande’s rare combination of top end speed, strength, and explosiveness was confirmed in Indianapolis, but he’s a project that lacks technique and good instincts.
87(85). Marcus Vick, QB, Virginia Tech - If you liked Maurice Clarett, you'll LOVE Marcus Vick. He's a big time risk to return absolutely nothing for your pick, but some GM, and someone in your league will be convinced that Vick will turn it around, so this low a ranking is basically a recommendation to pass on him. If by chance he does make it, he would pay dividends as a running fantasy QB that is more balanced his brother, but not as explosive. Vick showed his athleticism at the combine, but reports about his interviews were mixed at best.
88(86). Skyler Green, WR, LSU - Poor Skyler. He had the bad luck of playing next to Sinorice Moss in the Senior Bowl. Green will be a solid return man/slot receiver, but doesn't seem to have the natural WR skills to make an impact for fantasy. Green’s speed was middle of the road for WRs at the combine, which spells doom for a small WR. Green did not improve on his low 4.5s 40 time at the LSU pro day.
89(NL) Jon Alston, S/LB, Stanford – Alston showed a top notch package of speed, strength, quickness, and explosiveness at the combine. He could be on the Michael Boulware path – Alston showed good skills in coverage at the Shrine Game and is undersized for an NFL LB.
90(76). Greg Blue, SS/LB, Georgia - Coming off a so-so showing at the Senior Bowl, this big fast hitter of a safety is similar to Dwayne Slay in that he may lack the natural coverage skills to stay at safety. Blue was not very impressive at the combine, whether you stack him against the safety or LB prospects.
91(90). Freddie Roach, LB, Alabama - Big physical ILB optimistically projects as a Jeremiah Trotter type tackling machine because his rugged style allows him to take on blockers and get through traffic. Freddie had a strong Senior Bowl, overshadowing his highly touted Tide teammate, DeMeco Ryans. Roach was right there with Parham among the slowest ILBs at the combine, but that was expected.
92(NL). James Anderson, LB, Virginia Tech – Anderson was yet another ultra-athletic LB at the combine. He was among the quickest and most explosive LBs in Indianapolis.
93(93). A.J. Harris, RB, NIU - The 3rd RB on this list that was playing in the shadow of other RBs during his career, Harris has been stuck behind Michael Turner and Garrett Wolfe. He has the size/speed/inside running combo to work at the NFL level. Harris did not get invited to the combine.
94(NL). Erik Meyer, QB, Eastern Washington – Meyer is a tough, “do whatever it takes” kind of QB. He had an excellent combine, showing good athleticism and arm strength. He got himself in the late round developmental QB mix, and his tenacity makes me think he’s got a shot to a make it, at least enough for a late round flyer in your rookie drafts.
95(95). Gerald Riggs, RB, Tennessee - The RB that outplayed Cedric Houston in 2004 has experienced a tumble in value in 2005 due to a serious leg injury and mediocre play. Riggs has the frame, vision, and bloodline, but he looks like a backup RB in the pros at best to me. Riggs did not work out at the combine, questions about his injury linger.
96(96). David Anderson, WR, Colorado St. - Anderson is known for having some of the best hands in all of college football, but he looks like only a slot/possession WR type in the pros to me, due his size and lack of top end speed. He was very consistent in the East West Shrine practices, and will help whatever team he lands on, but he's a longshot to make a fantasy impact. Anderson’s combine numbers did not stand out.
97(NL). Chris Gocong, DE/OLB, Cal Poly – Gocong is a guy I’ve had my eye on since the Shrine game, where he showed relentless pursuit of the QB when he got free. He showed the quickness at the combine to convert to 3-4 OLB. Gocong dominated at the I-AA level, following his teammate Jordan Beck in winning the Buck Buchanan award, basically a defensive Heisman award.
98(NL). Tony Scheffler, TE, Western Michigan – Scheffler’s size, speed, quickness, and long frame turned heads at the combine. He’s the most interesting developmental TE in the draft.
99(NL). Clint Ingram, LB, Oklahoma – I’ve always thought of Ingram as more of a gamer that lacked top athleticism, but he was one of the quicker LBs at the combine, and had one of the best verticals.
100(NL) Jeff Webb, WR, San Diego St. – I was not impressed with Webb at the Shrine Game, but he flashed top notch speed and quickness for a taller WR and has to be considered as at least a deep sleeper. I don’t know if Webb plays as fast as he was timed, and he doesn’t seem like the physical type of WR, so I’m skeptical, but he deserves a spot in the 100 after his excellent combine.
DROPPED OUT (with previous rank):
80. Dwayne Slay, SS/LB, Texas Tech - Maybe the most vicious hitter in this draft, Slay might also lack the technique and discipline to stay in the defensive backfield in the pros. I see him as a slower version of Thomas Davis. Dropped out because he was one of the slowest, least athletic safeties at the combine.
83. Devin Hester, CB/WR, Miami-Fl - My gut says that Hester's speed will go to waste, and he will simply be a return specialist in the NFL. He hasn't really progressed at CB at Miami, and I'm skeptical that he'll ever be startable on offense. Still, I can't keep him off this list, because his speed represents big-time upside at WR if he ever "gets it". Dropped out because his 40 time didn’t stand out from the pack. He did get into the 4.3s at Miami pro day.
88. A.J. Nicholson, LB, Florida St. - A.J. was on his way to being a rising star in the draft before a sexual assault complaint was made against him at the Orange Bowl. His stock is dropping, but he's a top notch physical tackler at LB and should be a productive pro. Lack of elite timed speed puts him in the 2nd tier of LBs. Dropped out because he was extremely slow at the combine.
91. Stephen Tulloch, LB, NC State - Another LB that seems to always be around the play. Played in the middle at NC State, but could be in for a transition to WLB. Dropped out because he was slower than expected at the combine.
92. Kevin Simon, LB, Tennessee - A boom/bust LB, Simon has shown the ability to be a true 3 down LB in college. He's also missed the better parts of two seasons with injuries. A clean bill of health at the combine will send him up this list with a bullet. Dropped out because his combine performance made it clear that injuries have permanently robbed him of his upside.
94. Drew Olson, QB, UCLA - You might not find someone more down on Olson than I am. I know he was productive at UCLA this year, coming off a severe knee injury, but he just looks feeble to me in the pocket. I have to rank him because of how efficient he was during the year, but he looked like a bust to me during the EW Shrine week. Dropped out because he was the most underwhelming athlete of all the QBs at the combine.
97. Freddie Keiaho, LB, SD St - Freddie racked up tackles like no one's business for the Aztecs, averaging around 10 a game in the middle vacated by Kirk Morrison. He's a former RB that can chase plays down all over the field. Dropped out because he was tiny for an ILB at the combine.
98. Barrick Nealy, QB/WR, Texas St - This rugged strong arm small school QB was really unmasked at the Hula Bowl as having little potential at QB. He was supposed to play more at WR, but an injury forced him to work almost the whole week at QB. Tall, physical, and a good open field runner, Nealy is an interesting WR prospect, and I'll move him up this list if he is drafted as a WR. Dropped out because he failed to make as big an impression at the combine as others. Still an interesting long term prospect.
99. Troy Bergeron, WR, Arena League - Bergeron has track speed and was a very productive receiver in the AFL. He's very raw at WR because the AFL is such a different game for receivers, but he's got very intriguing tools. Dropped out because other players had a chance to make an impression at the combine.
100. Tarvaris Jackson, QB, Alabama St. - Jackson showed NFL tools all week at the Shrine Game, but he also showed maddening inconsistency. He is a project that may return nothing, but his tools give him a shot to be a top QB if it all comes together. He dropped out because he wasn’t as athletic as I expected him to be at the combine. Still an interesting long term prospect.
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As usual, excellent work, Bloom.
) - I just dont see him with the upside of Young, or the sure thing quality of Leinart - and I feel QB is an extremely overrated position in dynasty leagues unless you start 2, so he's at the bottom of the first tier of rookies. I wouldnt argue with taking him higher if you completely believe in him, but I still see him as almost as speculative as Young. Interesting stuff on Jacobs - I hadn't heard that. I am still sold on him from his impeccable 2004 season. There's a good explanation for his 05 dropoff (shoulder) and he's got the ideal set of tools. I still think he's a possible franchise QB in disguise, but Ill temper my enthusiasm some after reading your info.
