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****OFFICIAL 2021 OFF- SEASON DYNASTY TRADES****


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16 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Yea I think the most common tier break in TE premium is after 1.04 (Chase, Harris, ETN, Pitts) so this deal makes sense in that regard.

Who is the 5th you have in that tier? Williams? 

Yeah. Like him over ETN, landing spot aside.

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No, they won't accept

You mean it went down in a league you used to be in??  I’d go ful Vontae Davis on that league asap 

I don't know why so many people are saying that this is a fair return (despite preferring CMC as they should). It isn't. This is a fraction of what it should cost for a guy like CMC, either that or th

14 hours ago, Jonesin For Some Football said:

I don't really like this trade at all.  We don't know where guys will get drafted or who will be on the board at 15 and 24.  I hate giving up 1sts for unknowns.  I could see a world where this works out but feel you will lose on this type of trade way more often than you win.

I agree with you in theory, if you did this every year. However, if you’re inclined to grab extra picks in this draft, this is the time of year to do it. It’s a deep draft this year. During the draft that 2.03 might cost your 1st (without the extra pick) if theres a player that falls. 

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11 hours ago, DexterDew said:

12 team PPR, TE premium

Gave: 1.05, 1.10, 3.07, 3.09

Got 1.02 and 3.02

Second year of a complete rebuild, need to consolidate picks, still have 1.01/1.09/2.01/2.10/3.01.

[side bar: i see about 30 rookies that i would pick, i'm sure it will change after the draft]

With a deep draft and trying to rebuild I’d want more picks personally. That’s a lot to move from 1.05 to 1.02. 

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13 hours ago, DexterDew said:

12 team PPR, TE premium

Gave: 1.05, 1.10, 3.07, 3.09

Got 1.02 and 3.02

Call me crazy but I love this move in PPR TE premium. In this format I have Chase and Pitts in an upper tier. 1.03 and beyond is distant. 

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I am in rebuild.... 12 Team PPR 1 QB

I gave up 1.11 

I received LV WR Bryan Edwards & 2022 1st (mid)

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13 minutes ago, Edgar said:

Call me crazy but I love this move in PPR TE premium. In this format I have Chase and Pitts in an upper tier. 1.03 and beyond is distant. 

He needs RBs as much as I do in this league.  I can see him taking Harris at 1.1 and either Chase or Pitts with the 1.2.  I have the 1.3 and it doesn't matter which one of Chase or Pitts I get at 1.3.  If he does something crazy and takes Chase and Pitts, I'll be very happy with Harris at 1.3 considering the only RB I have is Taylor.  Logic says he might take Harris and ETN considering he has ZERO RBs,  but IMO Pitts or Chase will be too tempting. 1.3 is the sweet spot and anything top 8 is great this year.

Edited by JohnnyU
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26 minutes ago, Birdie048 said:

I am in rebuild.... 12 Team PPR 1 QB

I gave up 1.11 

I received LV WR Bryan Edwards & 2022 1st (mid)

Not a bad trade if the 2022 isn't late.  At 1.11 you're probably looking at one of the two Moore's, Gainwell, or possibly Marshall with the recent news.  Otherwise I think Marshall was a shoe-in for 1.9 or 1.10 in start 1qb leagues.  In 2022 if it's mid-1st or better you're probably looking at one of Olave, Bell, Pickens, or Burks.  I'm not a fan of Olave, but a lot of people have him as the WR1. Pickens had the injury, so he could fall to your range.  I don't think Bell or Burks makes it out of the top 5, along with Breece Hall and Isiah Spiller.

Edited by JohnnyU
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On 4/21/2021 at 7:42 PM, barackdhouse said:

I have much better than those two but even if I stayed at 1.04 there is virtually no chance I would be taking a rookie QB there. 

Yeah the fact that it was 6 *and* 7 was a big factor. 

I probably do either of those two examples though. 

Here is the factor, is what are the other owners doing in this case. 
 

I did a similar deal but without the nice advantage of Huntbfor early pick.  I gave up 1.3, 1.7 and 2.12 in 14 team SF PPR TE premiumIDP  to guy who owned 1.1 and 1.2 for 1.5, 1.6, 2.1. The thought was I get Chase or Pitts and one of Fields or Wilson over Chase or Pitts and Mac Jones or Wilson/Fields and Waddle/Smith. Liked that top 6 tier break. Of course thought 1.4 was QB for sure in Trey Lance as guy has loved. But he traded 1.4 to drop to 1.7. So now I will get 2 QB or better yet, a QB and trade other pick for a ransom with value of QB. 7 teams in league only one useful QB(One with Prescott/Newton, other with Carr/Dalton, another with Wentz,/Jimmy G) and one has zero but first 4 picks in draft plus the 12, so he will take care of. The other 3 have Mahomes/Jackson/Mayfield as starters. 
 

I like the trade for you but in my league, I see a clear 6 and feel 7 is a big drop. But if you have mocked it out and are happy with Smith, Waddle, Jones or top RB than the trade is great. We only have to start 1 RB and thus less premium put on. While you probably get RB here with greater premium. In my league, I see first RB going 9 or 10. But knowing your teammates and mocking out before and after is always fun. I don’t play in league but 16 team SF in similar fashion as my 14 teamer but they draft before draft. . and I know the owners. Guy holds 1.3, 1,4, 1.6 and 1.8 and know he is huge Bama fan. So I would have mocked him taking 4 Bama players and tried to get to 1.5, 1.7, 1.9, 1.10 knowing my guys would drop. He did disappoint with taking Pitts at 1.3 but took Smith over Chase, Jones over Wilson or Lance  and tooK. Harris  Bingo. Value was had later that will not happen in my 14 teamer. 
 

So how do you mock before and after. 
 

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1 hour ago, Birdie048 said:

I am in rebuild.... 12 Team PPR 1 QB

I gave up 1.11 

I received LV WR Bryan Edwards & 2022 1st (mid)

I get the dice roll on this turning into a better pick but the Edwards part just doesn't do much for me...would have liked to see a better prospect obtained to do this.

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1 minute ago, Boston said:

I get the dice roll on this turning into a better pick but the Edwards part just doesn't do much for me...would have liked to see a better prospect obtained to do this.

I agree with you about Edwards.  I was just looking at it from a 1.11 vs mid or better 2022 pick.

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1 hour ago, JohnnyU said:

He needs RBs as much as I do in this league.  I can see him taking Harris at 1.1 and either Chase or Pitts with the 1.2.  I have the 1.3 and it doesn't matter which one of Chase or Pitts I get at 1.3.  If he does something crazy and takes Chase and Pitts, I'll be very happy with Harris at 1.3 considering the only RB I have is Taylor.  Logic says he might take Harris and ETN considering he has ZERO RBs,  but IMO Pitts or Chase will be too tempting. 1.3 is the sweet spot and anything top 8 is great this year.

Yep that’s fair. Roster construction matters

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50 minutes ago, Boston said:

I get the dice roll on this turning into a better pick but the Edwards part just doesn't do much for me...would have liked to see a better prospect obtained to do this.

Thanks for the feedback, but I actually think B Edwards pre-injury was a Top 4 WR draft canadidate....  I think Ruggs is more slot/intermed route while Edwards is outside and offers more upside in LV offense.   John Brown (31 yo) is nice but more of a Locker Room mentor to the young WR. 

Personally, I have B Edwards rated closer to Lockett / JuJu range (WR3 material in 25-32 range).  

And for my rebuild, I have AJ Brown & M Pittman as my primary WR hoping Edwards makes it as my WR3

Edited by Birdie048
ETA: Also have Hardman as WR3 option
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15 hours ago, DexterDew said:

12 team PPR, TE premium

Gave: 1.05, 1.10, 3.07, 3.09

Got 1.02 and 3.02

Second year of a complete rebuild, need to consolidate picks, still have 1.01/1.09/2.01/2.10/3.01.

[side bar: i see about 30 rookies that i would pick, i'm sure it will change after the draft]

This could be considered pricey but I think the top 2 are definitely better than the next 2-3.  I don't play TE premium but if you wanted a true stud at the top of the draft, this wasn't that big of a price to pay to get there IMO.  I like the move personally especially with all of the other picks you have.  Good move.

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5 hours ago, Snorkelson said:

I agree with you in theory, if you did this every year. However, if you’re inclined to grab extra picks in this draft, this is the time of year to do it. It’s a deep draft this year. During the draft that 2.03 might cost your 1st (without the extra pick) if theres a player that falls. 

It definitely could work in a vacuum and you aren't wrong but not a move I'd be comfortable with.  I also don't think this draft is as deep as people think.  The late 1sts and 2nd rounds don't impress me as much as it does others it seems.

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2 hours ago, Birdie048 said:

Thanks for the feedback, but I actually think B Edwards pre-injury was a Top 4 WR draft canadidate....  I think Ruggs is more slot/intermed route while Edwards is outside and offers more upside in LV offense.   John Brown (31 yo) is nice but more of a Locker Room mentor to the young WR. 

Personally, I have B Edwards rated closer to Lockett / JuJu range (WR3 material in 25-32 range).  

And for my rebuild, I have AJ Brown & M Pittman as my primary WR hoping Edwards makes it as my WR3

I'm not a big fan of Edwards (or Gruden WRs right now) but if you feel that way about him than the deal makes sense for you.

Edited by Boston
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2 hours ago, Crippler said:

So how do you mock before and after. 

I expected it to go either:

A - QB/QB/Pitts
B - QB/QB/Chase
C - QB/QB/RB
D - QB/QB/QB

And I would have gone RB at 1.04 most likely, and 1.08 would be someone like Bateman, Marshall, Waddle, Smith, with an outside shot that J Williams falls there. This particular team of mine has Kelce, Fant and Higbee (who I love). There are more than a few of these I'm likely going to be taking Pitts but I don't think I want to here, if I had stayed at 1.04. I'd also field offers at that point, and the guy that ended up buying Hunt and giving me 1.06 and 1.07, I have to be honest about it - I think this could fall in the category of "he changes his mind once he thinks about it more" and the offer might not ever have been that good. This happens *all* the time. People get cold feet and withdraw. So could I have got more if I had waited until OTC? Theoretically yes but I doubt this guy pays as much as this first offer that I took. 

Now that I've made the trade and I sit at 1.06, 1.07 and 1.08 this is what I see, same as A-D above but the guy that moved up with me is likely targeting Chase/Pitts/QB in my opinion. If he does then I'm going to get at least one of the big 3 RBs if the second one peels off at 1.05. If it is a scenario other than C then I get two of the top RBs and my favorite WR right after at 1.08. 

And if I am reading this totally wrong and all 3 top RBs are gone before it gets to me at 1.06, that means either Chase or Pitts or the 2nd QB have fallen. And I'm am more than ok with that. My hunch is I just earned an extra top 3 rookie RB for the price of Hunt. If I'm wrong I'm getting Chase or Pitts or rookie QB2 for Hunt. Or a ransom OTC.

 

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2 hours ago, Boston said:

I'm not a big fan of Edwards (or Gruden WRs right now) but if you feel that way about him than the deal makes sense for you.

For me, Edwards would be an afterthought in that trade.  The only thing that should matter is whether you would rather have the 1.11 or a mid-2nd (possibly better).

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3 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

For me, Edwards would be an afterthought in that trade.  The only thing that should matter is whether you would rather have the 1.11 or a mid-2nd (possibly better).

Not me...since there is a risk that this pick is not any better I would want something with a little meat so I am getting something that can potentially help me this year as well.

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1 minute ago, Dez said:

16 team PPR 1.5 TE

1.06, 2.06, 3.06, 4.06, 5.06

for

DK Metcalf

Metcalf easily...in a 16 team league the non-1st rounders don't carry a ton of value...this is a smoke and mirrors trade.

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1 hour ago, Marauder said:

Wow.  That is really, really cheap for Metcalf.

Unfortunately I wasn't the one to get that deal.  A lot of people are draft crazy and make terrible deals to get picks.  Maybe that 1.06 turns out to be gold but he sure didn't get value on that deal.

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10 hours ago, Birdie048 said:

I am in rebuild.... 12 Team PPR 1 QB

I gave up 1.11 

I received LV WR Bryan Edwards & 2022 1st (mid)

I think it does, as we've established, depend how you feel about Edwards.

I traded him for the 2.11 and Jeff Wilson this year, essentially. I wanted out of Gruden's offense that centers around Waller and nobody before his value tanks. They still might draft a receiver even with Ruggs and Edwards already here, from what I'm hearing. Staying away.

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1 minute ago, Andy Dufresne said:

 

But if you add up all the values from the chart...

He did offer Metcalf to me to be fair but from me he wanted CEH, Jeudy, my 1st and 2nd round picks...........so ya I rejected that.

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51 minutes ago, Chad Parsons said:

12tm 2QB 2TE

Christian Kirk, 2.01, 2.05, 3.09, 22 1st (mid-late)

FOR

Ryan Fitzpatrick, D'Andre Swift

Give me the Swift and Fitzpatrick side in 2 QB leagues. I think that Swift is really the centerpiece here, and he's worth the 2.01, 2.05, and 22 1st. The 3.09 is a prayer, and Kirk is WR3 if you squint hard.

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3 hours ago, Chad Parsons said:

12tm 2QB 2TE

Christian Kirk, 2.01, 2.05, 3.09, 22 1st (mid-late)

FOR

Ryan Fitzpatrick, D'Andre Swift

I think this is worse than the Metcalf deal to be honest.

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2 hours ago, Buckna said:

I think this is worse than the Metcalf deal to be honest.

For which side? Since I have to ask, this can’t be worse than the Metcalf deal. 

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6 hours ago, Edgar said:

For which side? Since I have to ask, this can’t be worse than the Metcalf deal. 

Considering the multiple likes I think it’s easy IMO to see this is hugely weighted to the Swift side. Fitz is worth pretty close to the 2.05 in 2QB. The 3.09 and Kirk are nothing but fliers and hardly carry any weight. For example, Kirk’s startup ADP is the 14th round on 1 source I checked.

So that leaves the 2.01 and a future 1st for Swift. Likely depends which ADP source you check, but Swift goes before Metcalf according to DLF by a few spots. If you were forced would you rather have the 1.06 and 2.10 in exchange for a slightly lessor valued Metcalf then an equivalent 1.10ish in 1QB and future late 1st in a much worse rookie class for a slightly more valuable Swift?

Obviously some of that will come down to personal preference Metcalf vs Swift and 1.06+ 2.10ish vs 1.10ish & future late 1st. Both are equally bad trades but the 6 will get you one of Pitts, Waddle, Smith, Williams, etc. to try to replace Metcalf.

Edit: I missed the 16 teamer for Metcalf. That pushes it towards the Metcalf trade being quite a bit worse actually so I adjusted the value on the 2.06 to 2.10 in a 12 team league. Swift trade is still bad though.

Edited by Buckna
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5 hours ago, Edgar said:

For which side? Since I have to ask, this can’t be worse than the Metcalf deal. 

I’m not saying it’s worse than the Metcalf trade but how do you think that Swift deal is close?

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1 minute ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I’m not saying it’s worse than the Metcalf trade but how do you think that Swift deal is close?

By not being as in love with Swift as the general consensus.

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Just now, Andy Dufresne said:

By not being as in love with Swift as the general consensus.

That doesn’t have much to do with “value” though.

I can see some people not being as high on Swift, despite how good he looked last season, I suppose, but that package wasn’t very attractive and Fitzpatrick has value in a 2QB league.

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2 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

That doesn’t have much to do with “value” though.

I can see some people not being as high on Swift, despite how good he looked last season, I suppose, but that package wasn’t very attractive and Fitzpatrick has value in a 2QB league.

For about six games.

And in a 2QB league the 2.1 and 2.5 are gong to get you good players.

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1 minute ago, Andy Dufresne said:

For about six games.

And in a 2QB league the 2.1 and 2.5 are gong to get you good players.

Meh. I think it was a pretty bad deal, but I guess time will tell.

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11 hours ago, rockaction said:

Give me the Swift and Fitzpatrick side in 2 QB leagues. I think that Swift is really the centerpiece here, and he's worth the 2.01, 2.05, and 22 1st. The 3.09 is a prayer, and Kirk is WR3 if you squint hard.

Also, it is a 2 QB league so while Fitz is 100 years old he still has legit value in that format...once the season starts if there are a few injuries you could be in position where another owner may have to vastly over-pay for him just to survive yet in this deal he is treated like a throw-in...horrible use of that asset.

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6 hours ago, Buckna said:

Considering the multiple likes I think it’s easy IMO to see this is hugely weighted to the Swift side. Fitz is worth pretty close to the 2.05 in 2QB. The 3.09 and Kirk are nothing but fliers and hardly carry any weight. For example, Kirk’s startup ADP is the 14th round on 1 source I checked.

So that leaves the 2.01 and a future 1st for Swift. Likely depends which ADP source you check, but Swift goes before Metcalf according to DLF by a few spots. If you were forced would you rather have the 1.06 and 2.10 in exchange for a slightly lessor valued Metcalf then an equivalent 1.10ish in 1QB and future late 1st in a much worse rookie class for a slightly more valuable Swift?

Obviously some of that will come down to personal preference Metcalf vs Swift and 1.06+ 2.10ish vs 1.10ish & future late 1st. Both are equally bad trades but the 6 will get you one of Pitts, Waddle, Smith, Williams, etc. to try to replace Metcalf.

Edit: I missed the 16 teamer for Metcalf. That pushes it towards the Metcalf trade being quite a bit worse actually so I adjusted the value on the 2.06 to 2.10 in a 12 team league. Swift trade is still bad though.

This being a 12 team 2QB 2TE league is very important to the context. RBs are deeply devalued here. I agree that Fitz = 2.05 and the 3rd/Kirk are scraps nothingburgers. So it comes down to 2.01 + 2022 1st for Swift. Roughly two firsts for Swift in a league that devalues RBs is pretty dang close to consensus value. Would I take it? Depends on my roster construction.

Should a guy take the 16 team DK Metcalf trade under any circumstances or roster construction? Absolutely not. 

Therefore the Swift deal is better, because there are rosters it makes sense for. In the Metcalf deal, it never makes sense for any roster anywhere. 

Edited by Edgar
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I don't think anybody is paying 2.05 for Fitz in 2QB or SF. Unless it is part of a package and that is what this is. But I feel like a not insignificant portion of the 2.05 remainder must be said to go towards getting Swift. 

I think it is a screaming deal but yeah the DK trade is much worse.

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31 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

I don't think anybody is paying 2.05 for Fitz in 2QB or SF. 

I was offered Fitz, Tyrod, 3.04 for my 2.06 in SF recently and turned it down. 

I agree I highly doubt many are willing to give any 2nd for Fitz in SF. 

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