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WR Michael Thomas, NO (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Mr. Irrelevant
- Start date
JetMaxx
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
DND 
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I’m a fan and he’s part of one of my dynasty teams but given this timeline and the fact that there was already some concerns about the QB situation in NO, I’d rather him take a spot in some one else’s roster in redraft. I’m just not sure the reward is worth the risks here, unfortunately.Hot Sauce Guy said:
I have no idea why he's falling that far. That's WR5 territory. Even if he's out until week 7 that is a small price to pay for a guy with WR1 upside once he gets back. In my opinion this injury news drops Thomas from mid to low WR1 to mid to low WR3, but he's likely to go much later than that, if early indications hold true.
I know right? 12-16 weeks could be as early as week 3 or as late as week 7, for an unquestioned #1 WR who could see 10+ targets every game.
Faust
MVP
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I really don't understand this logic at all. Maybe its a roster construction difference of opinion, but I personally love drafting injured or suspended guys at huge discounts. A WR4/5 who can put up WR1/2 numbers, is an ideal use of a depth pick to me. Thomas is now the best candidate for that.
The guys going in his area right now are: Marvin Jones, DeVante Parker, Corey Davis, Mike Williams, Michael Pittman and Darnell Mooney. It wouldn't even cross my mind to take any of those guys over Thomas.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I feel like it almost never works out when you buy the injury dip. Honest question, but what are some examples where this worked out? Also it’s less about the guy you aren’t drafting and more about the roster spot being wasted for most of the season. It’s a breakout waiver guy you miss out on or the rookie you have to drop during bye weeks who ends up breaking out second half of the season.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Yeah it’s pretty obvious IMO. Plus there’s a chance he’s not effective when he comes back or he tweaks it or the offense is just a total disaster by then due to their hole at QB. I get the appeal and have tried this so many times before and I can’t ever recall it panning out.
Good question because I used to take the same approach as travdogg and just load up on discounted suspended/injured players. Early weeks with no byes and having these players around when it was time to make hay made this an easy decision for me in the past.
But last few years I must say getting players discounted for suspension, while not a lot of examples, has worked fairly well. Getting discounts on injured players has been horrendous. 2019 was kind of my tipping point on this as I super heavy on AJG and fairly heavy on Jordan Reed in TE premium leagues.
If I felt strongly that Thomas was good to go in week 7, like how I'd view a player coming off suspension, I'd be leading the charge to take him. However I have a lot of doubts he makes that timeframe, which I view as a best case. A few credible sources put his recovery timeline at 4-6 months to say nothing of being in football shape.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Depth of the league obviously matters a lot here. I don’t have any issue with the Thomas gamble knowing there’s a high chance this is a mostly lost year for him if I have some IR spots or if the benches are really deep. However, in most leagues I really like to churn the back of my roster and put a lot of value on being able to keep my roster fluid.
I think you’ve framed this more as a redraft question, which makes it a lot harder to justify, even if your league has IR lots.
I don't do local leagues any longer and 100% of my redraft non best ball leagues are 20 man roster sizes, 10 man starting lineups with no IR. These are all large scale national contests with $250-500K overall first prize payouts.
So saying that a potential difference maker like a healthy Thomas carries a lot of weight, more so to me then a typical local league.
But the flip side is those leagues are now 12/13 weeks long for the regular season. So say you are in round 7 range and you can take someone like a Claypool, Sutton, Juedy as examples or grabbing Thomas knowing best case he misses half your regular season? This to me is not such an easy decision to make even for someone like me who generally loves to gamble on upside and it goes back to what I was saying earlier about being confident Thomas will be good to go close to that week 7 mark. I'll put this another way. If an injured Thomas is now a 7th round pick I'm not sure I want to pay it, maybe sometimes I will sometimes I won't. If a suspended Thomas was out till week 7 and his cost was a 5th I'd draft him there 100% of the time.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Yeah I totally agree. It’s a bummer because he was a guy I really liked this year. You were already getting a big injury discount and QB uncertainty from last year.
I don't think its as cut on dry as that. Plenty of guys you can cut or carry, and they vary on roster construction. Carrying an injured/suspended player doesn't prevent you from picking up that guy, or force you to cut a potential breakout guy.
I can't think of many great examples off the top of my head, but its rarely been the case that a guy came into the season injured, and had such a secure role. Odell Beckham in 2014 sticks out as a guy who came in hurt, but his even his role was questionable at the time. Typically this is more of a buy low strategy during the season.
I would take Sutton and Claypool over Thomas, but Sutton is on average going round 6, Claypool round 7, and even Jeudy is 8. Thomas is currently going round 11. I'd probably take Thomas over Jeudy, and knowing I get a multiple round discount makes it an easy call for me. I'm a pretty big Sutton guy though.
Thomas ADP over last 3 days is mid 6th. Claypool, Sutton and Juedy within 8 picks of Thomas. This is the ADP from the leagues I participate.
Interesting. Perhaps his ADP will be all over the board then. The ADP my leagues use has Sutton at 71, Claypool at 77, Jeudy at 96, and Thomas at 123.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Sure but a roster spot is a roster spot and there’s a cost to carry someone who you can’t play.
I can think of guys I’ve been burned by:
AJ Green 2019: 6th round ADP after hurting his ankle in late June. Never played a game despite being projected to come back soon for months.
Jordan Reed 2017: 5th round ADP after preseason toe injury. Recovered by start of season but only played 5 games after the tow injury led to a compensatory hamstring injury that ended his season.
Sammy Watkins 2016: 3rd round ADP, off-season foot surgery, reinjured foot week 3 and missed 8 games. Was WR54 in ppg after returning.
Gronk 3016: 2nd round ADP, hamstring injury in August, missed first 2 games, hurt his back and missed 6 more games. Also was clearly hurting when he played, he had 3 games where he went catchless.
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I think so and even in this format I was referencing, which is FFPC, his range was round 3 to round 9. Also this format is like one I was outlining earlier, large scale national contest with massive overall prize so despite the shorter then normal regular season teams are probably more willing to push up potential difference makers then a standard league.
frae
Footballguy
The PUP list isn't good but he is not officially out for 6 weeks of the season until he remains on the PUP list when the regular season starts. I don't think I would want to buy anywhere but if you have him in dynasty I think holding is probably the move.
Yep, I totally misread that as the other one. They should really call them 2 different things.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
There's little correlation between severity and PUP status. If a guy starts active the team has almost zero flexibility after that.
- Once active they can't go onto PUP later, the only option is to carry them or IR them.
- If they go on IR during pre-season they are on it for the whole seasons (not sure how the new 8 game rule applies here - it might not)
- Younger guys have to clear waivers in addition.
- Even keeping them active until week 1 means one less slot to carry someone else and most importantly one more guy they have to cut at final cuts before IR'ing him.
This way he's on Preseason PUP as long as needed, if he's not ready by regular season then can go on Active PUP and miss only 6 games (vs. 8 or full season for IR) so it's way, way better for the team this way.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
It's the preseason PUP list which means nothing really. A lot of players will start on that.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Amari Cooper is in the preseason PUP (I heard until August 13 but not sure if that’s by rule.) He’ll probably practice but not play during the PS.
Thomas seems likely to be designated for the PUP after cut downs. Comeback will be sometime Weeks 7-11 (their bye week is 6 this year.)
“After the sixth week, the player must be allowed to return to practice, placed on injured reserved or released within five weeks.”
Hankmoody
Footballguy
We don't really know this though.. Maybe he was improving then had a setback. Maybe the rehab plan was on schedule and then it just wasn't as healing progress slowed. The recoveries these guys have are heavily scheduled and monitored - full weight at X interval, running at X+N, cutting at X+N+N2, etc. Maybe he just didn't take to the later progress schedule.
These guys don't care about wrecking our fantasy offseasons and drafts, they are trying to get on the field at the best time as suits their bodies. Avoiding surgery is a big benefit so I understand why he tried to go that route and then when it's obvious you can't avoid it you get it done. This comes up nearly every year with lesser players doing the same thing, having a late surgery.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
He can't practice while on PUP. I haven't heard August 13th date but there's no rule regarding it - they can activate him any time. Some guys are on it for one day until they pass their conditioning tests.
Slight adjustment to your quote - the word "must" isn't accurate. They "can" allow him to practice, but it's not mandatory. After he misses 6 games they have up to another 5 weeks to allow him to start practicing. Once he does start to practice, they have 21 days to activate, cut, or IR him.
So theoretically Thomas could miss 7 weeks (bye week in there plus 6 games), then 5 weeks of practice, then 21 more days putting him active as late as week 16. But he could also be practicing and activated and start all by week 8 game. Lots to be determined yet.
-OZ-
Footballguy
BigJim®
Footballguy
The comment had nothing to do with FF. Not playing for the Saints for 6 games, with reportedly several more rehab tune-up games expected to get into game shape, is going to impact that franchise's ability to make the playoffs. Over an ankle.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Yeah it's just the guy's mechanism to walk and have a normal life for the next 60 years. No biggie. Rub some dirt on it and go.
Again, these guys have heavily regimented recovery timelines. I'd guess dozens of prior patients have successfully rehabbed in similar time-frames without surgery. His didn't. It's not like an alpha male at the pinnacle of the game suddenly decides to be spiteful and intentionally delay treatment (to his own detriment) so he can stick it to the team that's done nothing but treat him right. I mean come on.
BigJim®
Footballguy
I'm not sure why you are reacting to me in that tone. I'm not suggesting he should cause himself to be unable to walk when he's old. That's silly. But he had the surgery now rather than retire, so why do you believe ability to walk is in the balance? The point is this is a professional athlete who will miss the better parts of 2 seasons in his prime. The first one, putting additional stress on a body party that ultimately required surgery. That can't be good either for the ankle he needs when he's older.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Hill was, early in the first game. Is there a huge relevant difference when discussing players who got hurt and returned to be difference makers between injury early in week 1 or the preseason?
(For ADP there is, that's not the question I'm addressing with Hill)
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Apologies if I mistook your tone but when people post curt responses like "over an ankle" they are generally being dismissive of the severity. The rest of your post reinforces my point - he's thinking about what's best for him in his prime. He's not going to be lounging around eating Fritos on the couch for three months and then saying "meh, I may as well get on that surgery thing now". He's been doing everything he can to rehab and heal up and avoid said surgery, but at some point you have to accept it's the best thing.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
And discounted? I have never seen Tyreek on any kind of discount. Trust me, I've followed.
-OZ-
Footballguy
I assume you aren't referring to his legal issues here, he had a pretty decent discount for a while there.
Maybe nobody in your leagues was selling after Hill's injury in 19.
