Jump to content
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

[DYNASTY] Lamar Jackson, MVP, Madden Cover. Hopefully Develops as a Passer


massraider

Recommended Posts

In his 7 starts, Lamar has rushed for 556 yards, 79.4 per game. Projected over a full 16-game season, that's 1,270 yards which would have been third in the NFL this season.

More impressive is doing that for Gus Edwards during Lamar's 7 games as starting QB. 654 yards, which is 93.4 per game, projecting to 1,495 over a full-16 game season.

Finally, add in Kenneth Dixon. He has 289 yards in his 5 games back from IR with Lamar at QB, averaging 57.8 yards per game. That projects to 925 yards in 16 games.

3,700 yards rushing from a QB and 2 RBs? I agree it's probably not sustainable in the long term. But in the short term, it's a lot for opposing teams to handle this year. 

I will also note that Lamar's current career QB rating is higher than Flacco's, and his current season rating (same as his career, obviously) is higher than any Flacco season since 2014. He hasn't thrown a pick in 5.5 games, since the second quarter vs. Oakland back on Nov. 25.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Chargers held Lamar to his lowest rushing output to date and they get another look and they have a defense constructed to slow the Ravens rushing attack down but they are dealing with injuries at LB and 'may' be without a key piece on their D-Line.

Chargers' defense ready for a second helping of Lamar Jackson

Quote

 

...The Chargers held the dynamic rookie quarterback to 39 rushing yards -- his lowest as a starter -- and the run-first Baltimore offense to 159 total rushing yards under the guidance of Jackson in the first matchup.

..."They're going to run it right at us," Chargers safety Derwin James said. "We know that, and we have to be ready to play, ready to get off blocks."

James played against Jackson three times in college while at Florida State, so he knew what to expect going into the first contest against the Ravens.

...The Chargers also went with speed over size to help defend Baltimore's rushing attack. The Chargers played at least six defensive backs on 48 of the 60 (80 percent) defensive plays against the Ravens in Week 16.

On the season, the Chargers have played at least six defensive backs a league-high 584 defensive snaps, ...

Chargers defensive coordinator Gus Bradley said one of the reasons his defense has been successful playing smaller personnel is because of the defensive line's versatility.

However, that versatility could take a hit with the uncertain availability of defensive tackle Brandon Mebane. The Cal product has been dealing with his daughter Makenna being in prenatal intensive care in Omaha, Nebraska, battling a defective heart condition.

Mebane's daughter is being treated at Children's Hospital of Omaha, and he has missed the past two days of practice.

The Chargers also are thin at linebacker, with starters Jatavis Brown (ankle), Denzel Perryman(knee) and Kyzir White (knee) all out for the season due to injuries.

"The way we're built now with some of the injuries taking place and how we shuffle around, we probably have more speed on the field," Bradley said. "So whenever you have more speed, it's going to appear faster, too, but we put a lot of strain on our defensive line now.

"When you have two lighter linebackers that are playing for us like we have now, you have to stress somebody. We put a lot of stress on the D-line because of it. Some of the techniques that we asked them to play, just to slow down some of the run game that we've been seeing."

 

I'm really looking forward to this game to see what Lamar will do.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

51 minutes ago, Bracie Smathers said:

Chargers held Lamar to his lowest rushing output to date and they get another look and they have a defense constructed to slow the Ravens rushing attack down but they are dealing with injuries at LB and 'may' be without a key piece on their D-Line.

Chargers' defense ready for a second helping of Lamar Jackson

I'm really looking forward to this game to see what Lamar will do.

It is somewhat misleading to call LBs Brown, Perryman, and White starters. To open the season, Perryman was the starter at MLB and White was the starter at WLB. White got injured early, at which point Brown became the starter at WLB. Once Perryman got injured, Brown split time between MLB and WLB. It definitely hurts to have a concentration of injuries in one position group, though.

IMO the real key to this game isn't Jackson and the Ravens offense against the Chargers defense, it is the Chargers offense against the Ravens defense.

I am expecting a much better showing from the Chargers and expect them to win by 10+.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 hours ago, Just Win Baby said:

I am expecting a much better showing from the Chargers and expect them to win by 10+.

Gosh, I have no idea about this game.  

Phil had his worst game of the year against the Raven defense and Lamar had his worst rushing game but best passing game yet Gus Edwards did well inside.

Could come down to one big play.

I have a gut feeling it will be a tight game unless Lamar gets a case of the yips.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't think the Chargers' O line matches up well vs the Ravens' D. Phil is going to have to get rid of a lot of passes quick, and the Baltimore DBs are pretty good in press coverage. It's also supposed to be kind of breezy which doesn't necessarily help Rivers with his flutter balls. 

Will be interesting to see how Baltimore adjusts to what LA and Cleveland did late in games, which was to shift their D line right before the snap and close down holes where the play was intended to go. This is going to be the first time the Ravens have to make some offensive adjustments since they went with Lamar. I could see them trying to break the huddle quicker and forcing the D line to shift with enough time for the O line to change their blocking schemes. It will be interesting if they give Lamar the responsibility of making some calls at the line, which they haven't done so far. 

I'm going to say it's a low-scoring game, and the Ravens will grind it out if they don't turn the ball over - Lamar hasn't thrown a pick in 5.5 games, but he's put the ball on the ground at least once in every start, and more than in once in about half his games.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 1/5/2019 at 10:20 AM, Bracie Smathers said:

Gosh, I have no idea about this game.  

Phil had his worst game of the year against the Raven defense and Lamar had his worst rushing game but best passing game yet Gus Edwards did well inside.

Could come down to one big play.

I have a gut feeling it will be a tight game unless Lamar gets a case of the yips.

Lamar looked a touch 'yippy' in the first half.

Lets see if he settles down this half.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 1/4/2019 at 12:21 PM, Just Win Baby said:

I am expecting a much better showing from the Chargers and expect them to win by 10+.

Wrong about 10+, although that was primarily because the Chargers went into prevent defense once they went up by 20. But, as expected, the Chargers played much better and got the win.

More important to this thread, Jackson did not look like a starting caliber NFL QB in this game. He has a long way to go IMO. I think it is more likely than not that he is not starting in the NFL 4 years from now.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Quote

Lamar Jackson completed 14-of-29 passes for 194 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception and rushed nine times for 54 yards with three fumbles (one lost) in the Ravens' Wild Card loss to the Chargers.

Struggling to deal with pressure and unable to throw accurate passes most of the day, Jackson flashed the playmaking ability which makes him so interesting late in the loss. His touchdown pass to Michael Crabtree was a nice throw down the sideline, he created a big play to Kenneth Dixon on the next drive by staying alive for several seconds in the backfield, and he did the same on a fourth-down touchdown to Crabtree a few plays later. Of course, he fumbled three times including the game-sealer, threw an interception, and failed to make anything happen on offense before those late drives. After rushing for 556 yards and four touchdowns along with 1,114 yards and five more scores through the air in seven starts, Jackson’s playmaking ability is undeniable, but he has to improve as a passer and work on his ball security to take the next step in 2019. That said, his rushing ability alone is enough to make him an upside QB1 in fantasy drafts next summer.

Jan 6 - 4:25 PM

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Just Win Baby said:

Wrong about 10+, although that was primarily because the Chargers went into prevent defense once they went up by 20. But, as expected, the Chargers played much better and got the win.

More important to this thread, Jackson did not look like a starting caliber NFL QB in this game. He has a long way to go IMO. I think it is more likely than not that he is not starting in the NFL 4 years from now.

I agree with this.  Running like he does is non sustainable as an NFL QB, and his passing is, to put it nicely, erratic.  So many short and mid-range throws were way off target.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Really really bad showing today. But let’s face it the OL was awful missing block after block and not getting any push against a small Chargers front. And wr group really isn’t intimidating in the least. The schemes seemed really stupid, playing right into the Chargers strengths and not exploiting their weaknesses.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, dickey moe said:

Do Ravens fans have faith in this guy?

Smart Raven's fans knew he was a project QB and had low expectations for him this year. I wouldn't have been surprised if he sat this whole season and I'm pleasantly surprised with some of what he achieved. People are really quick to write off the youngest ever QB to start a playoff game.

People compare him to Kaep which I think is a really bad comparison. Kaep couldn't read defenses. He often was a one read or run qb. Jackson by all accounts is great at reading defenses but struggles fitting the ball into small windows or even hitting open players. As a passer he's more like Teddy Bridgewater, where you aren't sure he can make all the throws so you have to simplify the passing offense, not because he doesn't understand it but because he can't make the throws Rodgers/Mahonnes can make.

He's kinda a unique player. What if Christen Ponder was the fastest player on the field? Smart decisions but bad mechanics and accuracy. I guess we will see if they can fix his throwing motions in the offseason. 

Edited by Wise Old Owl
spelling
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 hours ago, lod001 said:

He's capable of fooling 1/2 the NFL DCs

Not any more.  

Gus Bradley game plan solved the Raven rushing attack that had been rolling.

The Charger Changeup

Quote

...Lots to unpack after this game. It starts with that defensive plan. Defensive coordinator Gus Bradley threw the changeup of the NFL season at Baltimore, making a dominant run game feeble with a seven-defensive-back alignment from the first snap of the game to the last. When Bradley first discussed it with coach Anthony Lynn early in the week, Lynn said, “Are we insane, or what?” Nope. It worked. The Chargers (13-4) flummoxed Baltimore with 58 snaps (out of 59) of seven-DB defense.

Someone would have stumbled upon this but now the cat is out of the bag.

Greg Williams gave up nearly 300 yards on the ground last week with a 4--6 Bear front but then changed in the second half by making last second shifts and pinching the inside so that left the edges exposed to speed of Lamar.

Gus Bradley was able to put more players with speed on the field.

It worked.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, Wise Old Owl said:

Jackson by all accounts is great at reading defenses but struggles fitting the ball into small windows or even hitting open players. As a passer he's more like Teddy Bridgewater, where you aren't sure he can make all the throws so you have to simplify the passing offense

These things are kind of important, aren't they? How likely is it that he can master these necessary skills?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wouldn't read too much into 2018 Lamar Jackson. He came in as a "project" and the team greatly over-achieved. As Steeler mentioned above, great job by Ravens coaching staff to twist the offense into something Jackson could run... I'm sure they were surprised by their own success. DC's catch up fast however, and yesterday's 3-Safety defense may be the blueprint for stopping this... and if so, 2018 is basically a 1-off, throw away.

Now we'll start to find out if Jackson can truly play the position of QB.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, lod001 said:

You are either accurate or you are not. There's no magic potion that you drink and become an accurate passer.

You raise a good question... is it possible to become an accurate passer?

Didn't Mike Vick have accuracy issues early on. Seemed to chuck it very well from the pocket later in his (2nd) career.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, lod001 said:

You are either accurate or you are not. There's no magic potion that you drink and become an accurate passer.

In fairness, accuracy can certainly be influenced by footwork and mechanics, so it can theoretically be improved by improving those things. That said, I posted a question about this earlier in the thread, and no one was really able to provide an example that supports the idea that Jackson can overcome his accuracy issues to become a good NFL QB. It is possible that was because of the somewhat arbitrary completion percentage threshold I used.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 11/11/2018 at 11:55 AM, Just Win Baby said:

Jackson had a career completion percentage in college of 57.0%, and his best season was his last, at 59.1%. In the current passing era, say the last 15-20 years or so, have there been any QBs who were sub-60% passers in college who ended up being "very good" NFL QBs?

Same issue applies to Josh Allen (career 56.2%).

I don't know the answer to this question, so it isn't a loaded question. Jake Locker (54.0), Tyrod Taylor (57.2), Trevor Siemian (58.9), and Jacoby Brissett (59.5) all fit the criteria, and none are/were good NFL passers. It's a small sample size, and Jackson is more athletic and was drafted higher than most of these guys, so it probably doesn't mean much, though I seem to recall Football Outsiders having done some work to show that college completion percentage is among the strongest predictors of NFL QB success.

I did find this article where the author breaks down a lot of QB and their college completion percentage compared to pro level completion percentage.

Quote

Note that two guys with huge improvements in completion % in the NFL were horrible at completing passes in college - Kyle Boller and Josh McCown. Other notable QBs who have shown dramatic improvement in the completion % in the NFL are Drew Brees, Tyrod Taylor, Matt Ryan, Jay Cutler, Matthew Stafford and Russell Wilson. It should be noted that Wilson was deadly accurate in his final year in college, completing more than 70 percent of this passes.

On the flip side, you have guys who were in very “completion-friendly” systems in college who were unable to sustain that level of completion % in the NFL. These guys include Geno Smith, Andrew Luck, Mark Sanchez, Byron Leftwich, Cam Newton and Tim Tebow (not shown in the table - he is negative 18.5% - hitting 66.4% in college and 47.9% in the NFL).

There are some outside factors that affect a stat like completion percentage that are not necessarily related to the QB ability.

Scheme can play a big part in this because the higher the number of low adot leads to higher completion percentage and the opposite as well. The talent level of the competition can be significant here as well.

The chart shows a fairly normal distribution of players who improved their completion percentage in the pros and players who didn't.

As far as if a QB can improve their accuracy in the pros I think it is obvious that they can. It doesn't mean that they will, but they certainly can. That is why players practice.

FWIW Jacksons completion percentage of 58.2% is an improvement of his career college completion percentage of 57%

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 3 weeks later...
Quote

Coach John Harbaugh said he expects Lamar Jackson to "throw a lot" this offseason.

Jackson needs to throw more than he ever has in an offseason. There were concerns about his ability to function as a passer in the NFL when he came out of Louisville, but many didn't expect it to be as bad as it was in year one. Jackson made the difficult throws look impossible and the easy ones a chore to complete. The Ravens changed their philosophy and became the most run-heavy offense in the league after Jackson took over under center, relying solely on ball control and their defense. It worked to earn a playoff berth, but once they fell behind to the Chargers in the Wild Card game, there wasn't much of a prayer of a comeback due to Jackson's inability to make plays through the air. Jackson is expected to work with a throwing coach.

Source: Jeff Zrebiec on Twitter 

Jan 25 - 11:30 AM

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

When a QB can plant that seed....will he run/pass?....that puts a lot of stress on any defense.  A totally different game than facing guys like Eli, Rivers, Brady, you know where they will be.

I do see the game heading in the Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson direction, that multi talented guy who can do more things, more stress on a defense.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 1/27/2019 at 12:14 PM, ZenoRazon said:

When a QB can plant that seed....will he run/pass?....that puts a lot of stress on any defense.  A totally different game than facing guys like Eli, Rivers, Brady, you know where they will be.

I do see the game heading in the Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson direction, that multi talented guy who can do more things, more stress on a defense.

 

Wait.  You’re over in the Murray thread saying he can’t survive the NFL.  And what other skills beyond running does Jackson have that qualifies his game as possessing multiple threats?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

Wait.  You’re over in the Murray thread saying he can’t survive the NFL.  And what other skills beyond running does Jackson have that qualifies his game as possessing multiple threats?

You missed the point.

That mobile cat, the guy who can extent plays, evade a pass rush, scoot for 20 is where things are heading, not saying everyone makes it.

Google...Kyler Murray,  what is the first thing ya read.....his size.....why?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, ZenoRazon said:

You missed the point.

That mobile cat, the guy who can extent plays, evade a pass rush, scoot for 20 is where things are heading, not saying everyone makes it.

Google...Kyler Murray,  what is the first thing ya read.....his size.....why?

 

Ummm, the same reason people were saying Mayfield would fail because of his size?  Or why Wilson didn’t get drafted until the 3rd round?You’re the one saying Murray can’t make it because of his size.  Why are you asking me to quailfy your position?  You were wholly dismissive and condescending towards another poster who thought Murray could succeed.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

Ummm, the same reason people were saying Mayfield would fail because of his size?  Or why Wilson didn’t get drafted until the 3rd round?You’re the one saying Murray can’t make it because of his size.  Why are you asking me to quailfy your position?  You were wholly dismissive and condescending towards another poster who thought Murray could succeed.

Bronco, dont even bother responding to him. He is polluting every thread in here and just trying to bait people. Sad thing is the mods are letting him do it. 

Edited by irish eyes
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

Ummm, the same reason people were saying Mayfield would fail because of his size?  Or why Wilson didn’t get drafted until the 3rd round?You’re the one saying Murray can’t make it because of his size.  Why are you asking me to quailfy your position?  You were wholly dismissive and condescending towards another poster who thought Murray could succeed.

You asked me about Murray I'm simply responding.  Not asking you anything, just telling you what everyone else is saying.

No need to do anything here but take a wait and see aproach, I think he's too light and will get hurt, if I'm wrong, ok I'm wrong, no big deal.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 1/27/2019 at 12:14 PM, ZenoRazon said:

When a QB can plant that seed....will he run/pass?....that puts a lot of stress on any defense.  A totally different game than facing guys like Eli, Rivers, Brady, you know where they will be.

I do see the game heading in the Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson direction, that multi talented guy who can do more things, more stress on a defense.

I think its been heading in that direction for almost 20 years. McNabb, Culpepper, Vick, V.Young, Freeman, Tebow, Newton, Locker, Griffin, Tannehill, Manziel, Mariota, and Watson, were all 1st round picks drafted with that in mind. None of those guys go as high as they did, based solely on their passing ability. They haven't all panned out(in fact most haven't) but the idea has been there for a very long time. Probably going all the way back to Steve Young's success, helping to make Steve McNair a top pick.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, irish eyes said:

Bronco, dont even bother responding to him. He is polluting every thread in here and just trying to bait people. Sad thing is the mods are letting him do it. 

That is 100% totally wrong.

I think Tomlin is a great coach as do others.

I think Murray is too small, so do others.

I don't think Tiki Barber is a HOFer, so do others.

So me any baiting?  Where?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, travdogg said:

I think its been heading in that direction for almost 20 years. McNabb, Culpepper, Vick, V.Young, Freeman, Tebow, Newton, Locker, Griffin, Tannehill, Manziel, Mariota, and Watson, were all 1st round picks drafted with that in mind. None of those guys go as high as they did, based solely on their passing ability. They haven't all panned out(in fact most haven't) but the idea has been there for a very long time. Probably going all the way back to Steve Young's success, helping to make Steve McNair a top pick.

I agree, then we see a Josh Rosen.  So...???

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, ZenoRazon said:

I agree, then we see a Josh Rosen.  So...???

what travdogg was alluding to was that those guys were drafted higher than normal because of the potential they had as a dual threat.  It doesn't take away from a standard pocket passer being taken high if some GM believed he had the necessary skills to be an NFL QB. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Gally said:

what travdogg was alluding to was that those guys were drafted higher than normal because of the potential they had as a dual threat.  It doesn't take away from a standard pocket passer being taken high if some GM believed he had the necessary skills to be an NFL QB. 

I know.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...

Jackson needs to become more accurate but I believe he has the capacity to do this with hard work and practice. Way to early to say he cannot become a more accurate passer. And if he does he will take the NFL and your fantasy league by storm. Same with Josh Allen for that matter. I prefer running QBs though so I'm buying both these guys.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...
On 2/8/2019 at 12:24 PM, Gandalf said:

Jackson needs to become more accurate but I believe he has the capacity to do this with hard work and practice. Way to early to say he cannot become a more accurate passer. And if he does he will take the NFL and your fantasy league by storm. Same with Josh Allen for that matter. I prefer running QBs though so I'm buying both these guys.

I'm gonna go ahead and drag Randall Cunningham back up here. In his first (partial) season as a starter, #12 completed passes at a cool 42.0% clip. No, seriously. Go back and dig up some old Philly sports pages from the 1986 offseason and you'll see him called a pure gadget player, an athlete trying to imitate a QB, someone who had no business under center in the NFL. Even by the rock-throwing statistical standards of the '80s NFL, his "advanced completion percentage" relative to the league was 51 - where 100 is average. Oof.

In his second year, he improved that figure to 92. Then 100, exactly league-average, in his first full year as a starter ... and a stretch of Pro Bowls and top-2 fantasy finishes lasting into the early '90s.

Lamar's figure from his rookie season was 81. Given that Cam Newton has been a fantasy stud for years with a career index of 91, the accuracy gap between present-day Jackson and future fantasy force Jackson isn't as wide as some people might think. And Cunningham's career arc shows that the gap absolutely can be bridged.

I'm still not convinced Jackson is a future star in the league, but strictly from a fantasy perspective he's still a great buying opportunity.

Edited by Mr. Irrelevant
removed quote marks
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
  • Create New...