Even if Lamar Jackson doesn't replicate his historic rushing totals from 2019, at what draft position does he make you forgo the late-round QB philosophy in 2020?
Andy: First of all, let’s note that Jackson averaged 79.4 rushing yards per game over the final seven weeks of his rookie season and 80.4 rushing YPG last year. As long as he remains healthy, I expect him to continue piling up rushing yards at a similar rate. It actually wouldn’t shock me if his rushing TDs increased a bit in 2020. The area in which I think we need to expect some regression is Jackson’s passing TD rate; he led the league at 9.0 percent last season, which is simply not the sort of rate anyone maintains over multiple years.
In any case, I think both Jackson and Patrick Mahomes get interesting near the Round 3/4 turn. Those guys belong to a tier of their own. Over the past two years, they’ve produced the highest-scoring QB season in fantasy history (Mahomes) and the highest-scoring QB season on a per-game basis (Jackson). Either can be a league winner. Generally speaking, I’m going to land RBs and WRs with my first three picks. After that, I’m willing to take a shot with one of the top two QBs.
Dalton: This hypothetical would never happen, because it would be at least Round 5 before I’d even start debating taking a quarterback in a non-superflex league. The running back position is simply too important not to attack early, and quarterback is deeper than ever. It’s also safe to expect LJax to regress some in 2020. We’d have to be at least 50 picks in before I’d consider drafting Jackson (or any QB in any year).
Liz: I agree with Andy that Jackson’s rushing ceiling has yet to be met. In his first year with OC Greg Roman the 2019 MVP averaged nearly 7 yards per attempt and over 80 rushing yards per regular season contest. Marshal Yanda’s retirement certainly leaves a hole at right guard, but the franchise is high on second-year player Ben Powers as well as Joe D'Alessandris’ ability to coach up raw talent.
Roman has a knack for optimizing the explosiveness of a mobile QB and Jackson certainly has the talent to ascend. It’s also possible that the potential regression in his passing efficiency (112.5 True Pass Rating, QB2) is made up for by an increase in productivity, when considering consistent health from Marquise Brown and growth from Miles Boykin.
I, in fact, recently completed a Best Ball draft in which I selected Jackson at the end of the second round, just ahead of the turn. I would likely do the same in Super Flex formats. In standard redraft, however, I’d prefer to focus on RB in the first three or four rounds (depending on draft position) and roster a mobile QB like Kyler Murrayin the fifth.
Under the caveat of “we know, we know, the season is still very much up in the air,” let’s talk Super Bowl.
Yeah, in August.
As NFL training camps get going, our boy Frank Schwab revealed his pre-season No. 1 and it’s … the Lamar Jacksons.
Wonders Schwab: “Why couldn’t Lamar Jackson keep going down the Patrick Mahomes path and follow up an MVP season in year two with a Super Bowl MVP his third season? The Ravens went 14-2 in 2019 and it’s possible their roster is better this season.” See: the additions of Calais Campbell and Earl Thomas.
Really, though, it all comes down to Jackson and this number: 66.1. That was his completion percentage last season. While stat talk is insanely boring, this one is worth paying attention to. Because if he’s completing passes at that clip — which, by the way, was better than … Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, Carson Wentz, Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady — there’s really no stopping him, because we know he’s going to get his running the ball.
And if he gets his passing the ball, that’s going to open up his running game even more, which in turn will open up his passing game even more, and on and on it goes … all the way to Tampa.
This is what makes Lamar Jackson so dangerous, and why the idea that “defensive schemes will eventually catch up to him” hasn’t played out. You can scheme against a running QB; you can scheme against a passing QB. But how do you scheme against the best running QB the game has ever seen, who also doubles as one of the more accurate throwers in the league?
The question going into Jackson’s sophomore season was more of a concern: After completing just 58 percent of his passes as a rookie, could he improve on the biggest weakness in his game? He did, and then some.
The question going into his third season is more of a wonder: Is Lamar Jackson on his way to becoming one of the greats?
Let’s hope there’s a season to find out.
Ravens QB Lamar Jackson deemed himself fully recovered from the groin injury he dealt with in August.
It's further confirmation that Jackson is ready to roll for the start of the regular season. Those drafting Jackson for his cheat code-like rushing upside need not worry, it seems.
SOURCE: Jamison Hensley on Twitter
Sep 3, 2020, 11:58 AM ET
LAMAR JACKSON QB, BALTIMORE RAVENS
Browns CBs Kevin Johnson (lacerated liver) and Greedy Williams (shoulder) have been ruled out for Week 1's game against Baltimore, while CB MJ Stewart (hamstring) is questionable.
Cleveland's defense will go into Week 1 at way less than full strength and Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. Stewart, acquired last month off waivers, missed nearly two weeks of practice with a lingering hamstring issue. He was limited in Thursday's practice. The Ravens excel in exploiting defensive weaknesses. This sets up for another massive opening game for Jackson and the Baltimore pass catchers.
RELATED:
M.J. Stewart
, Greedy Williams
, Kevin Johnson
SOURCE: Field Yates on Twitter
Sep 11, 2020, 1:43 PM ET
Lamar Jackson completed 20-of-25 passes for 275 yards and three scores in the Ravens' Week 1 win over the Browns.
The 2019 MVP picked up where he left off in 2019 and shredded the Browns. In typical Jackson fashion, he was so dominant that Baltimore was able to pull him for Robert Griffin III in the fourth quarter. Jackson looked great in all facets including the two-minute drill. He orchestrated a seven-play, 69-yard drive in 35 seconds to put a final touchdown on the board before half-time. He also added 45 yards on the ground. The Ravens get an exciting date with the Texans next week in a matchup that features two of the league's stars at quarterback. He'll continue to battle Mahomes for the No. 1 fantasy quarterback spot in Week 2.
- Rotoworld
There is?? The only criticism I still see of him is that his play hasn't been great in the playoffs thus far, which is more than fair. Aside from that, everyone at this point knows he's really good.Over his last 9 regular season games, Lamar now has a passer rating of 133.1
That includes a 28-1 TD to INT ratio, and a 70.6 completion percentage (149 of 211 for 1,752 yards)
The only two QBs to ever post a passer rating of over 120 for a full season are Rodgers (122.5 in 2011) and Manning (121.1 in 2004)
He also has 675 yards rushing and 4 TDs during that span
It's impossible to know how long it will last, but Lamar during the last half of 2019 and now the start of 2020 is playing QB at a historic level. At the age of 23. And there's still debate about whether he's really good or not.
Well here you go - not a talented arm. But somehow a 133.1 passer rating for more than half a seasonKyler Murray has a long career as a pocket passer in front of him when he's done running. He has a very talented arm. Lamar Jackson does not.
Saying he doesn't have a "very talented arm" is not really a criticism.Well here you go - not a talented arm. But somehow a 133.1 passer rating for more than half a season
That's fine.There is?? The only criticism I still see of him is that his play hasn't been great in the playoffs thus far, which is more than fair. Aside from that, everyone at this point knows he's really good.
Dropped that deep pass to Brown in like a 10 year vet. It was perfecto.Well here you go - not a talented arm. But somehow a 133.1 passer rating for more than half a season
Agreed. He is a stud thus far, there is no other way to say it. But, for whatever reasons, he didn't play well in either playoff game so far. I thought the whole team looked out of sorts in the playoff loss to the Titans, not just Jackson, but we all know the deal: the QB always gets too much credit when a team wins and too much blame when a team loses.That's fine.
I'll give him a pass for the SD game two years ago. They were building that offense on the fly and Jackson was still getting his feet wet.
Last year against the Titans, though, was a failure. Some of that's on Jackson, who got frustrated when things didn't go well and went Hero Ball (& accounted for 500 yds of offense). I also think Roman panicked.
Right or wrong, QBs are judged on winning big games. Lamar has won a bunch of them regular season, but he needs some wins in the postseason.
The Titans smacked the Ravens in the mouth and the Ravens blinked (& kept blinking all the way out of the playoffs).Agreed. He is a stud thus far, there is no other way to say it. But, for whatever reasons, he didn't play well in either playoff game so far. I thought the whole team looked out of sorts in the playoff loss to the Titans, not just Jackson, but we all know the deal: the QB always gets too much credit when a team wins and too much blame when a team loses.
Yeah, they'll be back at the first 2-INT game.His playoff performance needs to improve. He's 23 years old, what's taking so long???
And LOL at everyone agrees he's good. The ones that don't think so are just avoiding this thread now, don't kid yourself.
Lamar's record as a starting NFL QBThat's fine.
I'll give him a pass for the SD game two years ago. They were building that offense on the fly and Jackson was still getting his feet wet.
Last year against the Titans, though, was a failure. Some of that's on Jackson, who got frustrated when things didn't go well and went Hero Ball (& accounted for 500 yds of offense). I also think Roman panicked.
Right or wrong, QBs are judged on winning big games. Lamar has won a bunch of them regular season, but he needs some wins in the postseason.
Those games are judgments on the coaches as well. They need to slow KC down. I know you're a Lamar fan so this isn't directed at you:Lamar's record as a starting NFL QB
0-2 in the playoffs
0-2 vs KC
21-1 vs everyone else (Lost Week 4 last year vs Cleveland)
It feels like the Ravens are on their way to another 11+ wins this year. At this point, the only individual games this season that really matter for judging Lamar are vs KC on MNF in 2 weeks and then the playoffs
WHAT? Under 20 FP from Jackson? What a bum. Washed. Cooked. Gloried wildcat WR. Bad attitude. Arrogant. Thug. May have impregnated an alien teen with a baby and left her without child support.Lamar Jackson completed 18-of-24 passes for 201 yards and one score, rushing 16 times for 54 yards in Baltimore's 33-16 Week 3 cakewalk over the Texans.
It was smooth sailing for the Ravens, whose front-seven reached Deshaun Watson four times in the backfield as the team's offense cruised to an easy win behind 37 carries for 230 rushing yards (6.2 YPA). Houston's secondary limited Mark Andrews to a single catch but it was Marquise Brown (5/42) who consistently settled in holes throughout the defense to keep moving the chains. Jackson has been terrific when asked to drop back, completing 38-of-49 passes (77.5%) for 476 yards and four touchdowns through two games, but the Ravens' weekly siege on opponents has capped his upside (so far). Expect that to change in next week's primetime showdown against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.
- Rotoworld
James Palmer
@JamesPalmerTV
Lamar Jackson passed the 600 career pass attempts threshold Sunday. Jackson became the first player in NFL history with at least 45 touchdown passes (45) and fewer than 10 interceptions (9) over his first 600 pass attempts. I thought he couldn’t throw?
Lamar Jackson completed just 15-of-28 passes for 97 yards and one touchdown in the Ravens' 34-20, Week 3 loss to the Chiefs Monday night.
Jackson rushed nine times for 83 yards to help save his fantasy day some, but this was a career worst passing day for last year's MVP, as his previous career low for passing yards was 105 yards. Jackson had 35 yards rushing and passing at halftime. The Ravens tried to make a second-half run, closing the gap to seven points after Jackson threw a short touchdown to Nick Boyle with 14:55 left in the fourth quarter. But it was too little, too late after a horrendous first half by the Ravens as a team. Jackson has struggled multiple times against Chiefs DC Steve Spagnuolo now in his career but should bounce back in a big way next week against Washington.
- Rotoworld
When you can easily correlate these blips to "big game" situations, it's hard to argue he didn't melt under the lights. I guess the answer to the concern question is different if it's fantasy focused or real football focused. Fantasy wise, I expect they go back to boot stomping inferior opponents.Brutal.
Do you guys view this as a one game blip or cause for concern for the rest of the season? I mean that was bad.
Blip.Brutal.
Do you guys view this as a one game blip or cause for concern for the rest of the season? I mean that was bad.
Wishing for "blip" but nervous that it may continue (Jackson is my QB for reference)...Brutal.
Do you guys view this as a one game blip or cause for concern for the rest of the season? I mean that was bad.
I'd take Wilson and Mahomes over him ....he clearly doesn't have it "all"....lots of work to do still.....might need to pump the brakes here a little.....lolBest player in football, IMO. I wonder if those criticizing his arm actually watch the games, because Lamar has it all. He really is the modern Steve Young.
I would say the blueprint has already been laid out and every team knows what it is. Jackson is not a great prototypical quarterback, maybe not even a good NFL passer at all. His success through the air is predicated from defenses addressing the run. So it's pretty simple to me, a team only needs to remove the rushing element of the offense forcing Jackson to throw the ball like a normal quarterback.Wishing for "blip" but nervous that it may continue (Jackson is my QB for reference)...
* Comparing Jackson to 2019 Jackson, that's two stinkers in a row... hence the concern. Almost seems impossible in today's NFL to throw for <100 yds.
* I believe this makes BAL 0-5 in games where they have trailed by 10 pts (Jackson era). That's not a massive deficit to overcome these days, so clearly there is a trend where "if you get up on them... stick a fork in them"
* The lack of go-to WR was glaring last night. We could be seeing McNabb/Eagles in the pre-TO era.
* Jackson's deep ball is still a frozen rope. As Griese pointed out last light, the more air you put under it, the better chance the WR has to adjust to it.
* Defensive coordinators are really good at adjusting during the off-season. Also, very good at copying one another. If there is a anti-Jackson formula out there... we'll find out shortly... maybe as soon as next week.
* Post game interviews were disturbing in that they were still focused on, and comparing themselves to the Chiefs. FORGET ABOUT THE CHIEFS... should be completely focused on winning the division. Steelers defense is no joke and already a game behind them.
If thy blow out WAS next week and Jackson puts up 30 fantasy points I will happily eat crow. If it's 20-16 and he's in the teens again... well... 'nuff said.
This is the dilemma of all these run first QBs....I would say the blueprint has already been laid out and every team knows what it is. Jackson is not a great prototypical quarterback, maybe not even a good NFL passer at all. His success through the air is predicated from defenses addressing the run. So it's pretty simple to me, a team only needs to remove the rushing element of the offense forcing Jackson to throw the ball like a normal quarterback.
I think this is easier said than done, evidenced by the fact so few teams have done it.
Yup. These guys all have about a 2-5 year window, then theyre toast. By the time and IF they ever develop as passers they have already be run through the ringer and they dont have much left.The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle. As teams get a better idea how to defend this offense.....seeing what has worked in the past.....it could get tough for Lamar.
In his defense he had some guys drop some passes that should have been caught.
When he stops running though the bottom is going to fall out.
This is exactly what is happening. These throwing windows are wide open because of the threat of the run. Once that threat of running is gone those windows get a lot smaller and only the great arm talents of the NFL can consistently make those throws.And PLEASE for the love of god miss me with all the passing stats for these run first clownshows. Sure you can hit the WIDE open TE and crossing WRs after youve faked the handoff and are luring the defense in with your feet.
These wide open receivers are a product of Lamar though. You're giving him enough credit. We haven't seen many quarterbacks in the NFL like him - ones that are among the best runners in the NFL. He's basically a running back who can throw the ball pretty well. Combined with the Ravens accommodating his unique abilities and he's a hard player to defend. It's not easy to stop them from running the football. Defenses have to put a lot of effort into it, leading to open receivers, mostly tight ends.And PLEASE for the love of god miss me with all the passing stats for these run first clownshows. Sure you can hit the WIDE open TE and crossing WRs after youve faked the handoff and are luring the defense in with your feet.
Yeah, that Russell Wilson dude totally sucks now.Yup. These guys all have about a 2-5 year window, then theyre toast. By the time and IF they ever develop as passers they have already be run through the ringer and they dont have much left.
All the years they have been able to bail themselves out with their feet was at the detriment of their development as passers.
Wilson has always been a pass-first QB (in his NFL career). Eyes are always looking downfield even when he approaches the line.Yeah, that Russell Wilson dude totally sucks now.
Really, are you going to make me dig up these exact arguments from threads early in Wilson's career?Wilson has always been a pass-first QB (in his NFL career). Eyes are always looking downfield even when he approaches the line.