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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread


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1 hour ago, Dez said:

RTS and FFPC both doing redrafts every day to win $250,000 prize.

I seen Damien Williams go at the 1.02 and 1.05 today in rookie/FA drafts where he was available.

I can maybe understand 1.5, if its a team that is a contender, and just a RB away. Its still risky, but could pan out.

1.2 just feels irresponsible. Even if a team is a contender that is just a RB away, the situation Montgomery landed in makes is possible he's better this year, let alone long term.

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1 hour ago, travdogg said:

I can maybe understand 1.5, if its a team that is a contender, and just a RB away. Its still risky, but could pan out.

1.2 just feels irresponsible. Even if a team is a contender that is just a RB away, the situation Montgomery landed in makes is possible he's better this year, let alone long term.

Anything is possible, but I would think right now the odds HEAVILY favor Williams outscoring Montgomery this year, likely by a very large amount. 

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On ‎5‎/‎2‎/‎2019 at 7:57 AM, RC94 said:

What do you guys think of Slayton, Gary Jennings, Ridley, Snell, Warring and other later picks like them?  

That's getting to the part of rookie drafts where most guys don't pan out, if there's a guy you like grab em.

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15 hours ago, fruity pebbles said:

Except the 49ers didn’t change coaches.

You're really good at seeing the point.

 

When the 49ers coaches had one year with Pettis, then decide to take two WR's on day 2....it hurts his value. No other way to slice that.

 

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7 minutes ago, tdmills said:

You're really good at seeing the point.

 

When the 49ers coaches had one year with Pettis, then decide to take two WR's on day 2....it hurts his value. No other way to slice that.

 

Bull. They have nothing behind him. Gonna go into the season with one decent WR?

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16 hours ago, tdmills said:

They added 3 WR's in the draft, I actually like KeeSean Johnson as well, and that's not a good sign for players still on the roster. New HC comes in and they spend 3 draft picks on WR's....they have plenty of holes on that team and that's what they decided. Any former AZ WR's value went down.

 

This same theory applies to the 49ers...sorry Pettis owners.

They are planning on running frequent 4 WR sets and they basically had 1.5 WRs on the roster.  They had to invest heavily at WR.  Kirk is still the guy who put up a 1000 yard season as an 18 year old true freshman in the SEC, was drafted higher, and the only one who has produced on an NFL level.  I like Isabella quite a bit but Kirk is still the top guy here to me by a long shot, and I’ll be buying in every league I can.  

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27 minutes ago, Raback said:

They are planning on running frequent 4 WR sets and they basically had 1.5 WRs on the roster.  They had to invest heavily at WR.  Kirk is still the guy who put up a 1000 yard season as an 18 year old true freshman in the SEC, was drafted higher, and the only one who has produced on an NFL level.  I like Isabella quite a bit but Kirk is still the top guy here to me by a long shot, and I’ll be buying in every league I can.  

What's the impact of last season's injury on Kirk?

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Well I have had rejects when I offered Damien Williams for the 1.04 straight up and for the 1.05 straight up so I'm definitely not seeing the same results you guys are.  1.05 wasn't his original pick, he was in the championship last year, so it's not even a case of preferring youth and unknown upside over the potential flameout that Wiliams might be.  I guess I will shift gears and look to move one of the other RB's ahead of him on my roster for a bigger haul but those kinds of trades are pretty rare in this league.

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5 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

Well I have had rejects when I offered Damien Williams for the 1.04 straight up and for the 1.05 straight up

I'm in two leagues where he was in the rookie drafts and he went 5 and 9 if that helps and always after Jacobs, Montgomery and Sanders had been picked.  Each league is different but to me seems his market starts after those 3 RB's get emptied out.

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4 hours ago, fruity pebbles said:

Bull. They have nothing behind him. Gonna go into the season with one decent WR?

Teams don't spend premium draft picks on players at the same position as decoys. This is a full blown WR by committee, which hurts the "Pettis is going to dominate targets" talk all offseason. If we went strictly off of draft capital, Samuel's was higher too.

#1 Target = Kittle

#2/3 targets = WRs

#4 target = RBs

#5 target = whichever WR isn't in 2/3.

 

This hurts his value

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5 hours ago, Raback said:

They are planning on running frequent 4 WR sets and they basically had 1.5 WRs on the roster.  They had to invest heavily at WR.  Kirk is still the guy who put up a 1000 yard season as an 18 year old true freshman in the SEC, was drafted higher, and the only one who has produced on an NFL level.  I like Isabella quite a bit but Kirk is still the top guy here to me by a long shot, and I’ll be buying in every league I can.  

Why are you quoting stats from 4 years ago as an indicator of 2019 success and beyond? Kirk then regressed and didn't reach that milestone any of the next 3 seasons. 

I could quote how Isabella had more yards receiving against an SEC team(limited games against them) than Kirk did in his college career. But all of this is nitpicking.

 

The focus should be a new coach brought in 3 WR's and 1 TE in the draft, signed one TE in Free Agency. Butler is bigger and a better RZ threat. Isabella is quicker and faster. 

 

Sure they needed more WR's...but you don't just continually spend draft picks at positions if you're happy with a stud already on your roster. If they loved Kirk, I could see maybe Butler and KeeSean...not Isabella too, who's literally the same as Kirk.

 

I know this is pulling at the heartstrings of Kirk/Pettis truthers/owners....but none of this is good news for their FF success or targets.

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57 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

I offered Thielen to another owner the other day. He told me he’s worried about Irv Smith Jr. stealing targets.

You should tell him you may quit fantasy football because you are worried about squirrels taking over the world.

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4 hours ago, Gottabesweet said:

It’s pretty crazy how people are all over this draft. 

Was just offered 

JuJu, Ito Smith, 20 overall, 2020 2nd

AB, Allen Robinson, Njoku, Chris Carson, 28 overall 

I’d take Juju by himself over the other side

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2 minutes ago, Jello_Biafra said:

I don't know. I'm worried how JuJu is going to handle being the primary focus of defenses. I don't think that's such a great deal.

The only part I really like is Juju is 8 years younger than AB who will be 31 already in July and likely 2-4 more good seasons. 

It’s a valid point without Bell and AB however targets should be there. 

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7 minutes ago, Gottabesweet said:

The only part I really like is Juju is 8 years younger than AB who will be 31 already in July and likely 2-4 more good seasons. 

It’s a valid point without Bell and AB however targets should be there. 

I agree with the age difference, and I own and love JuJu, but I'm just saying you can do a lot with the other side. Brown has 3 yrs left, Robinson maybe someone would trade you a 1st for? He's the bum of the trade, but there are still believers. Njoku is 20x better than Irv friggin Smith, and you have to wast a pick on him hoping one day he produces. Not a slam dunk trade.

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31 minutes ago, Jello_Biafra said:

I agree with the age difference, and I own and love JuJu, but I'm just saying you can do a lot with the other side. Brown has 3 yrs left, Robinson maybe someone would trade you a 1st for? He's the bum of the trade, but there are still believers. Njoku is 20x better than Irv friggin Smith, and you have to wast a pick on him hoping one day he produces. Not a slam dunk trade.

True, I feel like the other pieces would help any other team in the league.  I didn’t start Carson and Arob once last year.  It’s a lot to pay for Juju.  It’s hard to turn Julio, AB, AJG, Hilton into some youth.  My options are JuJu, Hopkins, and Adams who aren’t really being shopped. 

The dynasty top end WR market is tough to acquire. 

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9 hours ago, Jello_Biafra said:

I don't know. I'm worried how JuJu is going to handle being the primary focus of defenses. I don't think that's such a great deal.

It’s possible he regresses (though my recollection is the few time AB has missed time Juju looked good) but I think it’s even more likely AB regresses significantly further in Oak.

All those other pieces are nice names with some potential but little production (Carson the exception) to back it up.

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2 hours ago, jeaton6 said:

It’s possible he regresses (though my recollection is the few time AB has missed time Juju looked good) but I think it’s even more likely AB regresses significantly further in Oak.

All those other pieces are nice names with some potential but little production (Carson the exception) to back it up.

Njoku is a top 8 TE.  I agree with Arob and Carson. I have Penny who I’m hoping just supplants Carson. They spent high draft capital on him.  JuJu is the piece I want to acquire as young top 8 dynasty WRs are hard to get  

Id have 2,3,20,25,26 if proceeded.  

 

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5 hours ago, Gottabesweet said:

Njoku is a top 8 TE.  I agree with Arob and Carson. I have Penny who I’m hoping just supplants Carson. They spent high draft capital on him.  JuJu is the piece I want to acquire as young top 8 dynasty WRs are hard to get  

Id have 2,3,20,25,26 if proceeded.  

 

From a dynasty asset perspective yes, from a production perspective (to date) no.

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Price check on Mike Williams WR LAC... anyone seeing him in trades? 

Most trade calculators / value charts / etc. seem to have him worth less than I'd trade him for but nobody is biting in leagues where I try to acquire him.

 

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22 hours ago, tdmills said:

Why are you quoting stats from 4 years ago as an indicator of 2019 success and beyond? Kirk then regressed and didn't reach that milestone any of the next 3 seasons. 

I could quote how Isabella had more yards receiving against an SEC team(limited games against them) than Kirk did in his college career. But all of this is nitpicking.

 

The focus should be a new coach brought in 3 WR's and 1 TE in the draft, signed one TE in Free Agency. Butler is bigger and a better RZ threat. Isabella is quicker and faster. 

 

Sure they needed more WR's...but you don't just continually spend draft picks at positions if you're happy with a stud already on your roster. If they loved Kirk, I could see maybe Butler and KeeSean...not Isabella too, who's literally the same as Kirk.

 

I know this is pulling at the heartstrings of Kirk/Pettis truthers/owners....but none of this is good news for their FF success or targets.

I’m quoting those stats because breakout age is probably the most predictive metric when it comes to future success. Also his yardage went down very slightly while his TDs went up.  His market share remained high the entire time.  

Butler and Johnson were 4th and 6th round picks who are not very good players.  I think the predraft hype on Butler has got people a bit carried away.  Kirk is still the #1 in this offense and nothing the Cardinals did makes me believe otherwise.  

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22 hours ago, Gottabesweet said:

It’s pretty crazy how people are all over this draft. 

Was just offered 

JuJu, Ito Smith, 20 overall, 2020 2nd

AB, Allen Robinson, Njoku, Chris Carson, 28 overall 

That may look like an overpay for Juju to some, but that guy who dealt him is going to look back in 2 years and wish he had Juju when all those other pieces (save probably Njoku) are pretty much worthless.   

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17 hours ago, Raback said:

That may look like an overpay for Juju to some, but that guy who dealt him is going to look back in 2 years and wish he had Juju when all those other pieces (save probably Njoku) are pretty much worthless.   

My thoughts as well. AB is 8 years older than Juju. Crazy to me. 

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On 5/5/2019 at 2:59 PM, tdmills said:

Teams don't spend premium draft picks on players at the same position as decoys. This is a full blown WR by committee, which hurts the "Pettis is going to dominate targets" talk all offseason. If we went strictly off of draft capital, Samuel's was higher too.

#1 Target = Kittle

#2/3 targets = WRs

#4 target = RBs

#5 target = whichever WR isn't in 2/3.

This hurts his value

Doesn't hurt it much, if any. But then again, I didn't know anyone who said Pettis would dominate targets. I thought he'd be the WR1 if they didn't bring in OBJ or AB and I still think that. You're correct that Deebo went 2.04 but they traded up to 2.12 to get Pettis... I don't remember what it cost to move up, but it very well may have been the same worth as 2.04. Either way, we're talking about 8 picks which is negligible. Pettis and Deebo are the same age and Pettis has already shown NFL ability and has a year in the system. The likelihood of Deebo supplanting him is small, IMO.

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On 5/5/2019 at 12:57 AM, FreeBaGeL said:

Anything is possible, but I would think right now the odds HEAVILY favor Williams outscoring Montgomery this year, likely by a very large amount. 

Montgomery is replacing Howard who had 250 carries and 27 targets. Montgomery is better in the passing game than Howard. Cohen obviously will eat into his targets, but Cohen was a holdover from the pre-Nagy era. Nagy might prefer to keep Montgomery on the field more than he did Howard. Also, Hyde is not a great RB, but he's a lot better than he's given credit for. He will eat into Williams' workload. I feel like they are 50/50 for 2019 and I'd obviously take Montgomery easily for 2020 on.

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On 5/5/2019 at 2:59 PM, tdmills said:

 This is a full blown WR by committee, which hurts the "Pettis is going to dominate targets" talk all offseason.

I'll be extremely surprised if Deebo has not clearly asserted himself as the far and away most targeted WR in this offense next season, provided he is healthy of course. Don't think it will look like a WR by committee at all, but do agree that between Kittle, Deebo and the RB's Pettis owners won't like his usage. 

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Another deep dynasty question - What do you think of Kendrick Bourne?  I liked his potential and he seemed to be catching on a bit as a potential replacement for Garcon, but after drafting Samuel and Hurd it seems like the team is moving on. 

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I look at every team's 53 man roster at the start of the year and see if anyone on the bottom of the depth chart at WR or RB could be an interesting flyer. It's not easy to survive training camp and make a pro roster, so even those 4th-5th WRs must have something to offer. Bourne was one of the guys who caught my eye before last season and I stashed him everywhere. I see shades of Stevie Johnson. A possession WR with decent size and sneaky athleticism who can make some plays. That doesn't guarantee much though. Quinton Patton was a similar type of player for SF and never did anything.

Deebo is a catch-and-run guy in the mold of Boldin. That's bad for Bourne because it overlaps some of what he does. Likewise, Hurd profiles as more of a catch-and-run possession guy than a blazing downfield threat. Again, that's bad for Bourne because it overlaps some of what he does. If the Niners had gone out and drafted a Hardman or Campbell then it wouldn't necessarily be as bad since those guys are a completely different style compared with Bourne, but the specific picks they make pose a big threat to Bourne since they'll seemingly infringe on his potential role.

All in all, it's an arrow down for Bourne, but in a deep league I would still hold onto him. We are always quick to assume that just because a team drafts a guy high, he's automatically going to be better than the incumbent. The Bears spent a top 5 pick on Cedric Benson when they already had Thomas Jones. Big arrow down, right? Actually Benson was never able to beat him out. Teams miss on evaluations of draft picks and they do occasionally underestimate guys on their own roster. Just because the Niners took Deebo and Hurd doesn't mean those guys will be able to keep Bourne off the field.

Personally, I think Deebo is going to be good and may even lead the team in targets as a rookie. I have no real expectations for Bourne, but if you don't have an urgent need for roster space then I would try to hold him since he has made the team for two years in a row and improved statistically each season. If you chuck him now, there's a slim chance that you just got rid of the next TJ Houshmandzadeh/Stevie Johnson just because the Niners spent some day two picks on WRs.

 

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2 hours ago, menobrown said:

I'll be extremely surprised if Deebo has not clearly asserted himself as the far and away most targeted WR in this offense next season, provided he is healthy of course. Don't think it will look like a WR by committee at all, but do agree that between Kittle, Deebo and the RB's Pettis owners won't like his usage. 

Just looking at facts, best case for Deebo, long term he and Pettis have about the same odds of success. Ten or so spots separates them in draft capital, (not much at all) but Pettis has already put up decent per game numbers in the NFL.

Talking redraft, 2019 outlook heavily favors the guy with pro experience already. 

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4 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

Just looking at facts, best case for Deebo, long term he and Pettis have about the same odds of success. Ten or so spots separates them in draft capital, (not much at all) but Pettis has already put up decent per game numbers in the NFL.

Talking redraft, 2019 outlook heavily favors the guy with pro experience already. 

Saying the best case for Deebo is he and Pettis have same odds of success is nothing remotely like a fact. That's an opinion and obviously not one I share.

 

 

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1 hour ago, cloppbeast said:

Just looking at facts, best case for Deebo, long term he and Pettis have about the same odds of success. Ten or so spots separates them in draft capital, (not much at all) but Pettis has already put up decent per game numbers in the NFL.

Talking redraft, 2019 outlook heavily favors the guy with pro experience already. 

8 spots! And the biggest thing for me is NFL success. Pettis doesn't have a ton of experience, but he showed some legitimate NFL ability (in his last 4-5 healthy games) which is the best indicator of future success. Claiming a rookie of similar draft pedigree has a better long term outlook than Pettis is just blind rookie optimism. 

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2 hours ago, menobrown said:

Saying the best case for Deebo is he and Pettis have same odds of success is nothing remotely like a fact. That's an opinion and obviously not one I share.

If you want to post something to defend your statement, that would be cool. Seems you like Deebo more and thus would be surprised if hes not the best. This not remotely based in fact unless I missed something, but solely opinion, hot take style. Nbd, but just calling a spade a spade. 

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25 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

If you want to post something to defend your statement, that would be cool. Seems you like Deebo more and thus would be surprised if hes not the best. This not remotely based in fact unless I missed something, but solely opinion, hot take style. Nbd, but just calling a spade a spade. 

Not really sure what any of this means.

 

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1 minute ago, Gottabesweet said:

Price check on Damien Williams? 

Also Arob or a future first. 

I own him in dynasty, and I think it would take about the 1.05 or 1.06 for me to move him.

As for Arob, unless I was sure that pick was going to be a top 5 pick, I'd probably hang on to him.  Would also depend on my remaining WR's.

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34 minutes ago, Gottabesweet said:

Price check on Damien Williams? 

Also Arob or a future first. 

I sold Williams for an unknown 2020 draft pick (not the worst team in the league but not the best. Could make the playoffs or maybe not).

 

As for Arob...I'll take any 1st rounder for him, this year or next.

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A-Rob was definitely overrated going into last year. You can't rely on him. One good year in 5 NFL seasons so far.

That being said, he had 754 yards on 94 targets with a rookie QB on a new team. That's really not that bad.

If you assume his target total could climb to the ~150 he got in his peak Jacksonville seasons without a significant drop in efficiency then you get a ~1200 yard receiver.

He's easily the best WR on the Bears and if you assume progress from Trubisky then you might have a 1000 yard guy and a good WR2-WR3.

I wouldn't give a future first for him because if it ends up being a top 3 pick then you're taking an L, but at 25 years old as an NFL WR1 with a 1400+ yard season in his past, he could justify a late 1st for sure.

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57 minutes ago, EBF said:

A-Rob was definitely overrated going into last year. You can't rely on him. One good year in 5 NFL seasons so far.

That being said, he had 754 yards on 94 targets with a rookie QB on a new team. That's really not that bad.

If you assume his target total could climb to the ~150 he got in his peak Jacksonville seasons without a significant drop in efficiency then you get a ~1200 yard receiver.

He's easily the best WR on the Bears and if you assume progress from Trubisky then you might have a 1000 yard guy and a good WR2-WR3.

I wouldn't give a future first for him because if it ends up being a top 3 pick then you're taking an L, but at 25 years old as an NFL WR1 with a 1400+ yard season in his past, he could justify a late 1st for sure.

Pretty much agree with this - seems like if you have him you might as well hold and hope for the best since his perceived value is pretty low. I'd move him for a top 5-7 pick in this draft, but I don't see anyone paying that. 

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2 hours ago, EBF said:

A-Rob was definitely overrated going into last year. You can't rely on him. One good year in 5 NFL seasons so far.

That being said, he had 754 yards on 94 targets with a rookie QB on a new team. That's really not that bad.

If you assume his target total could climb to the ~150 he got in his peak Jacksonville seasons without a significant drop in efficiency then you get a ~1200 yard receiver.

He's easily the best WR on the Bears and if you assume progress from Trubisky then you might have a 1000 yard guy and a good WR2-WR3.

I wouldn't give a future first for him because if it ends up being a top 3 pick then you're taking an L, but at 25 years old as an NFL WR1 with a 1400+ yard season in his past, he could justify a late 1st for sure.

He did have some injury issues last year as well that could give some hope, and a few big games towards the end of the year.

FWIW Trubisky was a 2nd year starter last year, not a rookie.

I've never been high on ARob but he's on one of my teams and with everything reasonable under the sun rejected in trying to get rid of him this offseason, I am just going to hold.

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I don't like Arob at all.  I think 750-850 and 4-6 TD's is what we're getting year in and year out.  He's safer than some later guys.  But he also has way less upside.  

 

I'd give him up for a 2nd rounder.  I think JJAW, Isabella, Butler etc can be as good if not better.  If they're not--you still haven't lost a ton IMO.  

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4 hours ago, Gottabesweet said:

Price check on Damien Williams? 

Also Arob or a future first. 

 

4 hours ago, JoeJoe88 said:

I own him in dynasty, and I think it would take about the 1.05 or 1.06 for me to move him.

As for Arob, unless I was sure that pick was going to be a top 5 pick, I'd probably hang on to him.  Would also depend on my remaining WR's.

Good luck.  I couldn't move him for early 2nd round picks once our draft started.  I'm loaded at RB so wanted to swap the equity into something else, but at that point the price wasn't worth what he'll do for my lineup.  I'll trade someone else I guess.

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I'm apparently a lot higher on Robinson than most. I wouldn't trade him for anyone in this year's class other than Jacobs. Some of that has to do with the low quality of this year's class, but a lot also has to do with Robinson himself.

He's locked in as the Bears #1 WR for years to come, is only 26, and has been elite in the past. Metcalf is the only rookie WR I see with as much upside, and he's a lot riskier as he never really produced in college. Trubisky is a wild card. I thought he played pretty poorly last season, but had pretty good fantasy numbers. I think both Trubisky and Robinson were at their floors in 2018. As they build a rapport and get more comfortable in Nagy's offense. I expect solid WR2 numbers for years to come from Robinson. 

Let's not forget that Robinson missed most of last off season rehabbing a torn ACL. 

 

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3 hours ago, travdogg said:

I'm apparently a lot higher on Robinson than most. I wouldn't trade him for anyone in this year's class other than Jacobs. Some of that has to do with the low quality of this year's class, but a lot also has to do with Robinson himself.

He's locked in as the Bears #1 WR for years to come, is only 26, and has been elite in the past. Metcalf is the only rookie WR I see with as much upside, and he's a lot riskier as he never really produced in college. Trubisky is a wild card. I thought he played pretty poorly last season, but had pretty good fantasy numbers. I think both Trubisky and Robinson were at their floors in 2018. As they build a rapport and get more comfortable in Nagy's offense. I expect solid WR2 numbers for years to come from Robinson. 

Let's not forget that Robinson missed most of last off season rehabbing a torn ACL. 

 

He’s had a single elite season out of five, and been thoroughly mediocre in four.  Such an easy pass for a 1st, and bonkers to value him as the 1.02 equivalent in this draft class.

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12 hours ago, EBF said:

A-Rob was definitely overrated going into last year. You can't rely on him. One good year in 5 NFL seasons so far.

That being said, he had 754 yards on 94 targets with a rookie QB on a new team. That's really not that bad.

If you assume his target total could climb to the ~150 he got in his peak Jacksonville seasons without a significant drop in efficiency then you get a ~1200 yard receiver.

He's easily the best WR on the Bears and if you assume progress from Trubisky then you might have a 1000 yard guy and a good WR2-WR3.

I wouldn't give a future first for him because if it ends up being a top 3 pick then you're taking an L, but at 25 years old as an NFL WR1 with a 1400+ yard season in his past, he could justify a late 1st for sure.

This is an interesting topic. I've never owned ARob in a dynasty league before but have been sending out feelers for him for the first time this offseason. I've done so for the following reasons:

  • Perceived value is way down. For example, people say things like "one good year out of five" ignoring some critical aspects:
    • 1) He was a very young rookie, at age 21.0 when the season started. Guys like Deebo and Calvin Ridley will be/were almost 24 when they started their rookie seasons and most rookie WRs are somewhere around 22.
    • 2) His points per target in his 2nd season were actually elite even when not in garbage time. I found this out by accident when looking into garbage time PPT a couple years ago.
    • 3) The QB play was terrible in his 3rd season. Similar to Hopkins with Osweiller. Their stat lines: 150-73-883-6 vs 151-78-954-4
    • 4) He missed 15 games in his 4th season - so at a minimum, we should say one good year out of four.
    • 5) He was hampered by a groin injury for much of the year and missed three games outright. Was on pace for 116 targets - 68/954/5 while playing through injury.
  • Trubisky wasn't good last year and probably never will be, but he also wasn't terrible. Between Nagy's scheme and Trubisky's arm, I'm willing to say "targets are targets" in this case and I expect a healthy Robinson to get at least 120. Even given his injured state last year, that should be good enough for 1000 yards.
  • Chicago just invested in a grinder at RB, so maybe they don't intend to throw more, but they ranked 25th in pass attempts last year so there is room to grow in that aspect in Trubisky's 3rd season. Again, I wouldn't count on it, but it adds to ARob's intrigue for me.
  • He's got very little competition for targets. I know Anthony Miller was a hot topic last year, but as a 23.9 year old rookie (yes, he's only 1 year younger than ARob), he didn't strike me as a guy who will ever compete to be a team's WR1.
  • I know people draft weirdly in startups, but I don't think I've seen ARob go after 1.05 in any of the startups I've seen and those were all before the disappointing NFL draft.
  • Say what you will about his 4 seasons in the NFL, but he's clearly shown legitimate NFL ability which the rookies have not and he's got a clear path to targets now which most of the rookies also do not. Given the historic bust rate of rookies, the NFL draft slide many of them had, and the landing spots of some of them, I honestly think I'd take him over all of the rookies. I'm not advocating anyone paying an early 1st for him (why pay more than you have to? trade back and then trade for him), but fantasy football is a game of probabilities and I like his odds better than a mid-to-late 1st round fantasy rookie pick.

That being said, I agree with EBF that I would not give a future 1st. I think we're all excited about the 2020 class and if you're one WR2 away from being a playoff caliber team then you're also thin on depth and therefore probably one injury away from being a lottery team.

I would love to hear the specific rookie WRs people value over him in the 1.05-1.12 range.

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7 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

This is an interesting topic. I've never owned ARob in a dynasty league before but have been sending out feelers for him for the first time this offseason. I've done so for the following reasons:

  • Perceived value is way down. For example, people say things like "one good year out of five" ignoring some critical aspects:
    • 1) He was a very young rookie, at age 21.0 when the season started. Guys like Deebo and Calvin Ridley will be/were almost 24 when they started their rookie seasons and most rookie WRs are somewhere around 22.
    • 2) His points per target in his 2nd season were actually elite even when not in garbage time. I found this out by accident when looking into garbage time PPT a couple years ago.
    • 3) The QB play was terrible in his 3rd season. Similar to Hopkins with Osweiller. Their stat lines: 150-73-883-6 vs 151-78-954-4
    • 4) He missed 15 games in his 4th season - so at a minimum, we should say one good year out of four.
    • 5) He was hampered by a groin injury for much of the year and missed three games outright. Was on pace for 116 targets - 68/954/5 while playing through injury.
  • Trubisky wasn't good last year and probably never will be, but he also wasn't terrible. Between Nagy's scheme and Trubisky's arm, I'm willing to say "targets are targets" in this case and I expect a healthy Robinson to get at least 120. Even given his injured state last year, that should be good enough for 1000 yards.
  • Chicago just invested in a grinder at RB, so maybe they don't intend to throw more, but they ranked 25th in pass attempts last year so there is room to grow in that aspect in Trubisky's 3rd season. Again, I wouldn't count on it, but it adds to ARob's intrigue for me.
  • He's got very little competition for targets. I know Anthony Miller was a hot topic last year, but as a 23.9 year old rookie (yes, he's only 1 year younger than ARob), he didn't strike me as a guy who will ever compete to be a team's WR1.
  • I know people draft weirdly in startups, but I don't think I've seen ARob go after 1.05 in any of the startups I've seen and those were all before the disappointing NFL draft.
  • Say what you will about his 4 seasons in the NFL, but he's clearly shown legitimate NFL ability which the rookies have not and he's got a clear path to targets now which most of the rookies also do not. Given the historic bust rate of rookies, the NFL draft slide many of them had, and the landing spots of some of them, I honestly think I'd take him over all of the rookies. I'm not advocating anyone paying an early 1st for him (why pay more than you have to? trade back and then trade for him), but fantasy football is a game of probabilities and I like his odds better than a mid-to-late 1st round fantasy rookie pick.

That being said, I agree with EBF that I would not give a future 1st. I think we're all excited about the 2020 class and if you're one WR2 away from being a playoff caliber team then you're also thin on depth and therefore probably one injury away from being a lottery team.

I would love to hear the specific rookie WRs people value over him in the 1.05-1.12 range.

That's some top quality stuff. Thanks

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