Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

[FF Ninja 2,842]

5 minutes ago, Pwingles said:

Have an offer for Mike Evans in my inbox. Don't care for it, but havent countered yet.

Current offer is 1.02, D Hamilton, A miller for Evans

Not interested in that at all, however the rotoworld dominator app loves it for me if I were to take it.

The owner does have the 7, 10, and 12 pick as well. Also has Sammy. Any of the other pieces are either too valuable to add or of no interest.

So what combination of these pieces would you want for Evans?

It must use the same values for picks regardless of year. The 1.02 has much less value to me this year than in years past. I also don't like that trade for Evans. I'd want a lot more. 1.02 is a maybe while Hamilton and Miller are role players at best. Evans is 25.8 years old with 395 rec, 6105 yards, and 40 TDs to his name... a 16 game average of 82/1269/8. 

[tangfoot 1,998]

2 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

How would you rank these players in PPR formats?

Gurley, Bell, DJ, Chubb, Mixon

Chubb

DJ

Mixon, Gurley

 

 

 

Bell

Edited May 29, 2019 by tangfoot

[thriftyrocker 347]

9 minutes ago, Pwingles said:

Have an offer for Mike Evans in my inbox. Don't care for it, but havent countered yet.

Current offer is 1.02, D Hamilton, A miller for Evans

Not interested in that at all, however the rotoworld dominator app loves it for me if I were to take it.

The owner does have the 7, 10, and 12 pick as well. Also has Sammy. Any of the other pieces are either too valuable to add or of no interest.

So what combination of these pieces would you want for Evans?

I'd want one of those pieces too valuable to add to give up Evans.

[tangfoot 1,998]

12 minutes ago, Pwingles said:

So what combination of these pieces would you want for Evans?

I peg Evans at 3+ 1st round picks, and that offer doesn't come close to that.  Miller is a 2nd equivalent, and Hamilton is a late-2nd/3rd.

Evans is my WR2 behind Nuk.

[Pwingles 481]

49 minutes ago, kutta said:

I think I’d take the trade as offered and not mess around with him changing his mind.

Edit: wait - if you’re giving up Evans then forget it. If you’re getting Evans I like it for you.

I would be giving up Evans.

 

Pieces I know the other owner feels are too valuable to add would be MG3, Connor, Kelce (TE Prem, was #20 overall scorer)

Personally I want at minimum the 2,7 and a player, but dont really like watkins as that player. He does not have a '20 1st either, in case you were wondering

[tangfoot 1,998]

Just now, Pwingles said:

I would be giving up Evans.

 

Pieces I know the other owner feels are too valuable to add would be MG3, Connor, Kelce (TE Prem, was #20 overall scorer)

Personally I want at minimum the 2,7 and a player, but dont really like watkins as that player. He does not have a '20 1st either, in case you were wondering

1.02 + Gordon would be pretty close and I still wouldn't take it if this is a PPR league.  Conner/1.02/1.07 would also be close.

[ffmail4me 778]

49 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

Chubb

DJ

Mixon, Gurley

 

 

 

Bell

I think we all might be throwing dirt too prematurely on Bell. Yes he sat out a year and supposedly gained weight (no big shocker there) but he IS a professional athlete and was easily top 3 at his position for most of his career. He's never had a major injury that I can recall, so unless you just really think the Steelers made him (I personally don't) I think he should be higher. That being said, I'm not really looking to buy him because of the risk being in a new system and possibly struggling. But man his 3 down skill set is ideal, especially with a young QB. 

[tangfoot 1,998]

2 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

I think we all might be throwing dirt too prematurely on Bell. Yes he sat out a year and supposedly gained weight (no big shocker there) but he IS a professional athlete and was easily top 3 at his position for most of his career. He's never had a major injury that I can recall, so unless you just really think the Steelers made him (I personally don't) I think he should be higher. That being said, I'm not really looking to buy him because of the risk being in a new system and possibly struggling. But man his 3 down skill set is ideal, especially with a young QB. 

Not throwing dirt on him, but firmly believe that his days of being in the super-elite tier of RBs are over.  I can't really see him higher than RB6 this year or going forward.

Edited May 29, 2019 by tangfoot

[wgoldsph 945]

1 hour ago, Concept Coop said:

I’m a buyer on Chubb, but can’t deny your logic. His upside is capped in PPR formats - I have him down for ~30 receptions - and Hunt is brutal competition. They’re different players, but Chubb reminded me of rookie year (best version of) Zeke, last season. He’s special, and he’s the cheapest young guy I can say that about. I typically try to acquire talent and let the chips fall where they may.

Best outcome from him is a mid-season trade where hunt is given away, or for dynasty hunt parlaying this season into a multiyear contract with a new team. Otherwise cubbs lack of passing down acumen makes him a two down back.

[wgoldsph 945]

2 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

Not throwing dirt on him, but firmly believe that his days of being in the super-elite tier of RBs are over.  I can't really see him higher than RB6 this year or going forward.

But you're buying into dead leg Gurley?

[tangfoot 1,998]

1 minute ago, wgoldsph said:

But you're buying into dead leg Gurley?

Going from #1 down to Mixon's tier pretty much says that he won't be drafted by me.

[wgoldsph 945]

3 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

Going from #1 down to Mixon's tier pretty much says that he won't be drafted by me.

Mixon is behind the top four for me. Gurley is around Freeman*. In industry drafts Gurley is going anywhere from the end of round one to the end of round two.

Edited May 29, 2019 by wgoldsph

[Zyphros 1,897]

5 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

How would you rank these players in PPR formats?

Gurley, Bell, DJ, Chubb, Mixon

DJ, Mixon, Chubb, Gurley, Bell

People want to point to DJ being older but he has very low mileage on him.  He's a steal right now.  I'm trying to acquire him everywhere.  

[FF Ninja 2,842]

1 hour ago, Zyphros said:

DJ, Mixon, Chubb, Gurley, Bell

People want to point to DJ being older but he has very low mileage on him.  He's a steal right now.  I'm trying to acquire him everywhere.  

In a vacuum I'd rather the player I'm drafting has low mileage than high mileage, but in the past I've read several very convincing articles that conclude mileage doesn't really matter. Father time on the other hand...

[Concept Coop 1,752]

6 hours ago, FF Ninja said:

RB - R Freeman (RB34, age 23) - new system favors him

How so?

[FF Ninja 2,842]

Just now, Concept Coop said:

How so?

Waldman touches on it here.

[EBF 1,924]

For me it's Mixon as the clear #1, then Chubb, then a dropoff to the other guys.

Age is pretty important in dynasty. Mixon is fully capable of outscoring all those veterans next season, and is much younger. You're looking at a 5 year gap between Mixon and DJ, so you'd have to think DJ has a massively favorable short-term outlook to prefer him, and I just don't see that. Mixon has every chance of outscoring him in 2019, let alone every other year going forward.

Gurley for me is an avoid-at-all-costs guy right now in dynasty simply because I think his value is too volatile to justify the price tag. Maybe he'll be brilliant. Maybe he'll be gimped forever. I'm not giving up a top 10-20 startup pick to find out when I can get other cornerstone players with no ??? in that range.

[barackdhouse 2,044]

5 hours ago, Pwingles said:

Have an offer for Mike Evans in my inbox. Don't care for it, but havent countered yet.

Current offer is 1.02, D Hamilton, A miller for Evans

Not interested in that at all, however the rotoworld dominator app loves it for me if I were to take it.

The owner does have the 7, 10, and 12 pick as well. Also has Sammy. Any of the other pieces are either too valuable to add or of no interest.

So what combination of these pieces would you want for Evans?

Not close for me. I don't think Evans has had his best year yet. Nor Winston his. Arians is there now. OJ Howard and Godwin are ascending. Defenses won't be able to key on Evans all the time and he will be eating targets. 

[jeaton6 637]

On 5/28/2019 at 2:21 PM, Concept Coop said:

I'm selling. He never really flashed last season, his knee gave him trouble, and his already questionable situation got worse, with the addition of Harris. I'd be looking to add to him for backs like Kerryon or Jacobs. 

Call me confused. Are we talking about the same person? 

Regular season:

13 games 209/931 and 6, 4.5 per rush. 4 100 yd games, 5 games with TD.

Playoffs:

3 games, 71/336 and 6, 4.7 per rush. 94 yards rushing was his lowest, averaged 112 and 2 TDS per game. 2 100 yd games. 3 games with TD.

Total 16 games:

280/1267, 4.5 per rush, 12 TDs. 6 100 yd games, 8 games with TD. 

I don’t understand how this isn’t flashing. Big time.

Yes he’s a zero in passing game, yes he missed some time.

Wouldn’t  trade him for 1.1.

[jeaton6 637]

5 hours ago, tangfoot said:

Not throwing dirt on him, but firmly believe that his days of being in the super-elite tier of RBs are over.  I can't really see him higher than RB6 this year or going forward.

Bell outperforms Mixon this year. Guaran”sheed”. Boom!

[Concept Coop 1,752]

1 minute ago, jeaton6 said:

Call me confused. Are we talking about the same person? 

Regular season:

13 games 209/931 and 6, 4.5 per rush. 4 100 yd games, 5 games with TD.

Playoffs:

3 games, 71/336 and 6, 4.7 per rush. 94 yards rushing was his lowest, averaged 112 and 2 TDS per game. 2 100 yd games. 3 games with TD.

Total 16 games:

280/1267, 4.5 per rush, 12 TDs. 6 100 yd games, 8 games with TD. 

I don’t understand how this isn’t flashing. Big time.

Yes he’s a zero in passing game, yes he missed some time.

Wouldn’t  trade him for 1.1.

He did about what you'd expect an average starting RB to do with 200 carries in a top 5 offense, but he never really popped off the screen to me. I say that as someone who was high on him as a prospect; I liked him more than Chubb. He's young and talented, so if you like what you saw, I certainly get it. But his situation is likely to get worse, and I'd rather invest in someone I feel more confident in independent of situation. 

[jeaton6 637]

6 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

He did about what you'd expect an average starting RB to do with 200 carries in a top 5 offense, but he never really popped off the screen to me. I say that as someone who was high on him as a prospect; I liked him more than Chubb. He's young and talented, so if you like what you saw, I certainly get it. But his situation is likely to get worse, and I'd rather invest in someone I feel more confident in independent of situation. 

He was a rookie. It’s rare for rookie RBs or any RB to put together 12 TDS over 16 games.  I think he universally exceeded expectations. I don’t see the situation getting much worse. Burkhead is likely gone. Sure Harris is there but it’s unlikely he takes over. He’s likely to get 280 carries this year barring injury. 1200/8 is his floor if healthy. The lack of passing game usage is my biggest concern. In PPR.

[Concept Coop 1,752]

1 minute ago, jeaton6 said:

He was a rookie. It’s rare for rookie RBs or any RB to put together 12 TDS over 16 games.  I think he universally exceeded expectations. I don’t see the situation getting much worse. Burkhead is likely gone. Sure Harris is there but it’s unlikely he takes over. He’s likely to get 280 carries this year barring injury. 1200/8 is his floor if healthy. The lack of passing game usage is my biggest concern. In PPR.

I see 280 carries as his ceiling, personally. They drafted Harris to mix him in and White is going to be on the field plenty, too. They want a committee.

I could be wrong, obviously, but I'm confident enough to call him a sell. We'll see. 

[Gottabesweet 960]

Tyler Boyd? Contract year, Bengals switching to a new run heavy scheme? AJG on last legs and injury prone.  If Boyd stays I wouldn’t be a fan. What if he goes elsewhere? Depends where but as a player what do we think?

[jeaton6 637]

3 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

I see 280 carries as his ceiling, personally. They drafted Harris to mix him in and White is going to be on the field plenty, too. They want a committee.

I could be wrong, obviously, but I'm confident enough to call him a sell. We'll see. 

Yes will be interesting. His 280 was done with a slow start and a game with 4 carries (I believe he got hurt). Burkheads 57 Carries over 8 games are gone. And as you said he was injured and could be more efficient. I see the arrow pointing up. We’ll see.

[tangfoot 1,998]

57 minutes ago, jeaton6 said:

Bell outperforms Mixon this year. Guaran”sheed”. Boom!

I don’t think that’s a big stretch at all, but this is a dynasty thread and my rankings were not for a redraft league. 

[jeaton6 637]

52 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

I don’t think that’s a big stretch at all, but this is a dynasty thread and my rankings were not for a redraft league. 

Understand it’s 4.5 years but Bell is still young and will be elite for 3 years. I’ll take his 22+ PPg vs Mixons 17+ all day.

[tangfoot 1,998]

3 minutes ago, jeaton6 said:

Understand it’s 4.5 years but Bell is still young and will be elite for 3 years. I’ll take his 22+ PPg vs Mixons 17+ all day.

It seems odd that you are both projecting based on previous years’ production and assuming that it will be static going forward. That’s taking the redraft mentality to the absurd extreme. 

[Gottabesweet 960]

Brandin Cooks vs Ty Hilton value? 

 

 

[jeaton6 637]

2 hours ago, tangfoot said:

It seems odd that you are both projecting based on previous years’ production and assuming that it will be static going forward. That’s taking the redraft mentality to the absurd extreme. 

22 is not the same as 23 and 26. Bell is the only show in town, I think Mixon is around 17 PPG. I just don’t see a whole lot of upside. I think Mixon is one of the more overrated players on these boards. DJ Moore especially is my #1 most overrated.

[voiceofunreason 1,028]

1 hour ago, jeaton6 said:

22 is not the same as 23 and 26. Bell is the only show in town, I think Mixon is around 17 PPG. I just don’t see a whole lot of upside. I think Mixon is one of the more overrated players on these boards. DJ Moore especially is my #1 most overrated.

Yeah, Bell is the only show in town. His efficiency is almost certainly going down by a good amount. 

[joey 1,497]

4 hours ago, Gottabesweet said:

Brandin Cooks vs Ty Hilton value? 

 

 

Flip a coin imo. 

[FF Ninja 2,842]

12 hours ago, Gottabesweet said:

Brandin Cooks vs Ty Hilton value? 

Cooks by quite a bit. He's 4 years younger and similarly skilled. 

[Gottabesweet 960]

Would Guice be 1.2 this year? Peterson there but old and Thompson the PPR guy. 

[Concept Coop 1,752]

23 minutes ago, Gottabesweet said:

Would Guice be 1.2 this year? Peterson there but old and Thompson the PPR guy. 

He would be for me. I’d take him over any of the rookies, with the exception of Jacobs. 

[FF Ninja 2,842]

44 minutes ago, Gottabesweet said:

Would Guice be 1.2 this year? Peterson there but old and Thompson the PPR guy. 

Should be. He'd be 1.01 for me.

[Concept Coop 1,752]

To answer my own question, I think my top 12 RBs look like this:

T1 - Barkley

T2 - Kamara, McCaffrey

T3 - Zeke

T4 - Mixon

T5 - Chubb, Gordon

T6 - DJohnson, Bell, Gurley, KJohnson, Jacobs

Zeke scares me a bit. He needs to lose some weight and cut back on the partying. While he has good hands, if the offense improves, his targets will dip. Great talent, but I feel better about Kamara and McCaffrey right now.

I hate Patricia for Kerryon, and there are injury concerns, but he’s young and looked great to me; I’m sold on his talent.

Jacobs’ ranking is a bet on his draft capital, opportunity, youth, and receiving chops. I’m not 100% sold, but everyone in the tier has question.

Guys like Fournette and Cook, while talented, are too risky to value top 12, IMO. They would be in the next tier.

[cloppbeast 1,415]

48 minutes ago, Gottabesweet said:

Would Guice be 1.2 this year? Peterson there but old and Thompson the PPR guy. 

1.03 or 1.04 for me.

[tangfoot 1,998]

13 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

1.03 or 1.04 for me.

Where did you have him last year, and who are the guys you'd put ahead of him in this class?

[FreeBaGeL 8,862]

1 hour ago, Gottabesweet said:

Would Guice be 1.2 this year? Peterson there but old and Thompson the PPR guy. 

He would be neck and neck with Harry for 1.02 for me. I'd probably lean Guice slightly because the horrific hit rate on 1st round WRs lately scares me. 

[cloppbeast 1,415]

4 hours ago, tangfoot said:

Where did you have him last year, and who are the guys you'd put ahead of him in this class?

Jacobs, Sanders, maybe Harry.

I cant remember where I had him last year, somewhere 5 - 8. I wasn't in position to get him.

[cloppbeast 1,415]

15 hours ago, Gottabesweet said:

Would Guice be 1.2 this year? 

Seems like most have Guice at 1.02.

I dont see why he is overwhelmingly favored over Sanders. Similar draft status, situations a little different. You could favor Guice in Washington, but hes recovering from an ACL - not always straight forward.

Edited May 31, 2019 by cloppbeast

[travdogg 2,998]

On 5/29/2019 at 6:08 PM, Gottabesweet said:

Tyler Boyd? Contract year, Bengals switching to a new run heavy scheme? AJG on last legs and injury prone.  If Boyd stays I wouldn’t be a fan. What if he goes elsewhere? Depends where but as a player what do we think?

I'm actually expecting the Bengals to be a much better passing team this season than last. Can't overstate how much the coaching change(and health) could make a difference. If Taylor is even 50% of McVay, this entire offense may be grossly undervalued. I don't think Green is on his last legs at all, and would happily trade the 1.1 for him. I like Boyd quite a bit as well, and think he could gain or lose value if he left Cincy. Its not a bad spot to be in.  He proved a ton to me last year, and is still very young. I'd value Boyd at 1.4. 

I think people are really sleeping on the Bengals offense. This same nucleus, started 4-1 last season, and was averaging 30+ ooints per game.

Edited June 1, 2019 by travdogg

[Gottabesweet 960]

11 hours ago, travdogg said:

I'm actually expecting the Bengals to be a much better passing team this season than last. Can't overstate how much the coaching change(and health) could make a difference. If Taylor is even 50% of McVay, this entire offense may be grossly undervalued. I don't think Green is on his last legs at all, and would happily trade the 1.1 for him. I like Boyd quite a bit as well, and think he could gain or lose value if he left Cincy. Its not a bad spot to be in.  He proved a ton to me last year, and is still very young. I'd value Boyd at 1.4. 

I think people are really sleeping on the Bengals offense. This same nucleus, started 4-1 last season, and was averaging 30+ ooints per game.

Seems like they beefed up the Oline. Moved Cordy to LG and going to start the rookie as well. Good point. Could be a hold. 

[Interseptopus 5,722]

11 hours ago, travdogg said:

I'm actually expecting the Bengals to be a much better passing team this season than last. Can't overstate how much the coaching change(and health) could make a difference. If Taylor is even 50% of McVay, this entire offense may be grossly undervalued. I don't think Green is on his last legs at all, and would happily trade the 1.1 for him. I like Boyd quite a bit as well, and think he could gain or lose value if he left Cincy. Its not a bad spot to be in.  He proved a ton to me last year, and is still very young. I'd value Boyd at 1.4. 

I think people are really sleeping on the Bengals offense. This same nucleus, started 4-1 last season, and was averaging 30+ ooints per game.

I agree that peoppe are sleeping on them, but I see them as a sub .500 team 

Boyd is the WR people love to hate. I'm one of them. However, if Boyd stays I absolutely love that long term for him

Edited June 1, 2019 by Dr. Dan

[Just Win Baby 2,590]

On 5/30/2019 at 1:22 PM, Concept Coop said:

To answer my own question, I think my top 12 RBs look like this:

T1 - Barkley

T2 - Kamara, McCaffrey

T3 - Zeke

T4 - Mixon

T5 - Chubb, Gordon

T6 - DJohnson, Bell, Gurley, KJohnson, Jacobs

Zeke scares me a bit. He needs to lose some weight and cut back on the partying. While he has good hands, if the offense improves, his targets will dip. Great talent, but I feel better about Kamara and McCaffrey right now.

I hate Patricia for Kerryon, and there are injury concerns, but he’s young and looked great to me; I’m sold on his talent.

Jacobs’ ranking is a bet on his draft capital, opportunity, youth, and receiving chops. I’m not 100% sold, but everyone in the tier has question.

Guys like Fournette and Cook, while talented, are too risky to value top 12, IMO. They would be in the next tier.

Immediate reaction comments:

1. I would have Chubb in T4.
2. I would have Gordon in T6... he is playing this season on his 5th year option, and I am cautiously optimistic the Chargers are not going to sign him to an extension, which would mean his situation is unknown beyond this season. He also has a lot of mileage and has missed games due to in jury in 3 or his 4 seasons.
3. I would have Johnson in T7.

Edited June 2, 2019 by Just Win Baby

[wgoldsph 945]

On 5/29/2019 at 6:52 PM, jeaton6 said:

He was a rookie. It’s rare for rookie RBs or any RB to put together 12 TDS over 16 games.  I think he universally exceeded expectations. I don’t see the situation getting much worse. Burkhead is likely gone. Sure Harris is there but it’s unlikely he takes over. He’s likely to get 280 carries this year barring injury. 1200/8 is his floor if healthy. The lack of passing game usage is my biggest concern. In PPR.

Harris replaces burkhead so that's all a wash.

 

You can't count the playoff stats alongside the regular season stats.  They're entirely different beasts.

[BradtheAg 138]

I would take that.  Ryan is really undervalued IMO.  QB2 or QB3 LY depending on scoring.

Edited June 2, 2019 by BradtheAg

[travdogg 2,998]

9 minutes ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Does Matt Ryan have any real dynasty value today even in a PPR 6 pt per passing TD start 1 QB league?

I was offered Ryan & Diggs for my Doctson, AJG & Ingram. My only QB is Stafford.

I am hoping Murray will fall to me in the late 1st of our coming rookie draft, but if I trade for a QB I will likely draft someone else.

I'd be all over that deal. Big QB upgrade, and you get younger at WR, without losing current value. 

If you do take that deal, I wouldn't rule Murray out. He could end up being better than Ryan long term, and is already better than Stafford.

[Zyphros 1,897]

Who are your value RB's people are buying for compete now teams?  I feel like most of them are way too risky for the most part when in the past you could project a decent role.  I'm talking like bye week fillers, maybe even flex spots.

The only ones I can think of are Cohen (now with the Montgomery vulture at least a little), James White, and Peyton Barber.  Maybe Chris Thompson but he could easily be bench guy now with Guice healthy.