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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
I peg Evans at 3+ 1st round picks, and that offer doesn't come close to that. Miller is a 2nd equivalent, and Hamilton is a late-2nd/3rd.
Evans is my WR2 behind Nuk.
Pwingles
Footballguy
I would be giving up Evans.
Pieces I know the other owner feels are too valuable to add would be MG3, Connor, Kelce (TE Prem, was #20 overall scorer)
Personally I want at minimum the 2,7 and a player, but dont really like watkins as that player. He does not have a '20 1st either, in case you were wondering
1.02 + Gordon would be pretty close and I still wouldn't take it if this is a PPR league. Conner/1.02/1.07 would also be close.I would be giving up Evans.
Pieces I know the other owner feels are too valuable to add would be MG3, Connor, Kelce (TE Prem, was #20 overall scorer)
Personally I want at minimum the 2,7 and a player, but dont really like watkins as that player. He does not have a '20 1st either, in case you were wondering
ffmail4me
Footballguy
I think we all might be throwing dirt too prematurely on Bell. Yes he sat out a year and supposedly gained weight (no big shocker there) but he IS a professional athlete and was easily top 3 at his position for most of his career. He's never had a major injury that I can recall, so unless you just really think the Steelers made him (I personally don't) I think he should be higher. That being said, I'm not really looking to buy him because of the risk being in a new system and possibly struggling. But man his 3 down skill set is ideal, especially with a young QB.
Not throwing dirt on him, but firmly believe that his days of being in the super-elite tier of RBs are over. I can't really see him higher than RB6 this year or going forward.
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wgoldsph
Footballguy
wgoldsph
Footballguy
Mixon is behind the top four for me. Gurley is around Freeman*. In industry drafts Gurley is going anywhere from the end of round one to the end of round two.
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In a vacuum I'd rather the player I'm drafting has low mileage than high mileage, but in the past I've read several very convincing articles that conclude mileage doesn't really matter. Father time on the other hand...
Concept Coop
Footballguy
How so?FF Ninja said:
EBF
Footballguy
For me it's Mixon as the clear #1, then Chubb, then a dropoff to the other guys.
Age is pretty important in dynasty. Mixon is fully capable of outscoring all those veterans next season, and is much younger. You're looking at a 5 year gap between Mixon and DJ, so you'd have to think DJ has a massively favorable short-term outlook to prefer him, and I just don't see that. Mixon has every chance of outscoring him in 2019, let alone every other year going forward.
Gurley for me is an avoid-at-all-costs guy right now in dynasty simply because I think his value is too volatile to justify the price tag. Maybe he'll be brilliant. Maybe he'll be gimped forever. I'm not giving up a top 10-20 startup pick to find out when I can get other cornerstone players with no ??? in that range.
Age is pretty important in dynasty. Mixon is fully capable of outscoring all those veterans next season, and is much younger. You're looking at a 5 year gap between Mixon and DJ, so you'd have to think DJ has a massively favorable short-term outlook to prefer him, and I just don't see that. Mixon has every chance of outscoring him in 2019, let alone every other year going forward.
Gurley for me is an avoid-at-all-costs guy right now in dynasty simply because I think his value is too volatile to justify the price tag. Maybe he'll be brilliant. Maybe he'll be gimped forever. I'm not giving up a top 10-20 startup pick to find out when I can get other cornerstone players with no ??? in that range.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Not close for me. I don't think Evans has had his best year yet. Nor Winston his. Arians is there now. OJ Howard and Godwin are ascending. Defenses won't be able to key on Evans all the time and he will be eating targets.
jeaton6
Footballguy
Call me confused. Are we talking about the same person?
Regular season:
13 games 209/931 and 6, 4.5 per rush. 4 100 yd games, 5 games with TD.
Playoffs:
3 games, 71/336 and 6, 4.7 per rush. 94 yards rushing was his lowest, averaged 112 and 2 TDS per game. 2 100 yd games. 3 games with TD.
Total 16 games:
280/1267, 4.5 per rush, 12 TDs. 6 100 yd games, 8 games with TD.
I don’t understand how this isn’t flashing. Big time.
Yes he’s a zero in passing game, yes he missed some time.
Wouldn’t trade him for 1.1.
jeaton6
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
He did about what you'd expect an average starting RB to do with 200 carries in a top 5 offense, but he never really popped off the screen to me. I say that as someone who was high on him as a prospect; I liked him more than Chubb. He's young and talented, so if you like what you saw, I certainly get it. But his situation is likely to get worse, and I'd rather invest in someone I feel more confident in independent of situation.
jeaton6
Footballguy
He was a rookie. It’s rare for rookie RBs or any RB to put together 12 TDS over 16 games. I think he universally exceeded expectations. I don’t see the situation getting much worse. Burkhead is likely gone. Sure Harris is there but it’s unlikely he takes over. He’s likely to get 280 carries this year barring injury. 1200/8 is his floor if healthy. The lack of passing game usage is my biggest concern. In PPR.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I see 280 carries as his ceiling, personally. They drafted Harris to mix him in and White is going to be on the field plenty, too. They want a committee.
I could be wrong, obviously, but I'm confident enough to call him a sell. We'll see.
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
Tyler Boyd? Contract year, Bengals switching to a new run heavy scheme? AJG on last legs and injury prone. If Boyd stays I wouldn’t be a fan. What if he goes elsewhere? Depends where but as a player what do we think?
jeaton6
Footballguy
Yes will be interesting. His 280 was done with a slow start and a game with 4 carries (I believe he got hurt). Burkheads 57 Carries over 8 games are gone. And as you said he was injured and could be more efficient. I see the arrow pointing up. We’ll see.
I don’t think that’s a big stretch at all, but this is a dynasty thread and my rankings were not for a redraft league.
jeaton6
Footballguy
Understand it’s 4.5 years but Bell is still young and will be elite for 3 years. I’ll take his 22+ PPg vs Mixons 17+ all day.
It seems odd that you are both projecting based on previous years’ production and assuming that it will be static going forward. That’s taking the redraft mentality to the absurd extreme.
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
Brandin Cooks vs Ty Hilton value?
jeaton6
Footballguy
22 is not the same as 23 and 26. Bell is the only show in town, I think Mixon is around 17 PPG. I just don’t see a whole lot of upside. I think Mixon is one of the more overrated players on these boards. DJ Moore especially is my #1 most overrated.
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
Yeah, Bell is the only show in town. His efficiency is almost certainly going down by a good amount.
joey
Footballguy
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
Would Guice be 1.2 this year? Peterson there but old and Thompson the PPR guy.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
He would be for me. I’d take him over any of the rookies, with the exception of Jacobs.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
To answer my own question, I think my top 12 RBs look like this:
T1 - Barkley
T2 - Kamara, McCaffrey
T3 - Zeke
T4 - Mixon
T5 - Chubb, Gordon
T6 - DJohnson, Bell, Gurley, KJohnson, Jacobs
Zeke scares me a bit. He needs to lose some weight and cut back on the partying. While he has good hands, if the offense improves, his targets will dip. Great talent, but I feel better about Kamara and McCaffrey right now.
I hate Patricia for Kerryon, and there are injury concerns, but he’s young and looked great to me; I’m sold on his talent.
Jacobs’ ranking is a bet on his draft capital, opportunity, youth, and receiving chops. I’m not 100% sold, but everyone in the tier has question.
Guys like Fournette and Cook, while talented, are too risky to value top 12, IMO. They would be in the next tier.
T1 - Barkley
T2 - Kamara, McCaffrey
T3 - Zeke
T4 - Mixon
T5 - Chubb, Gordon
T6 - DJohnson, Bell, Gurley, KJohnson, Jacobs
Zeke scares me a bit. He needs to lose some weight and cut back on the partying. While he has good hands, if the offense improves, his targets will dip. Great talent, but I feel better about Kamara and McCaffrey right now.
I hate Patricia for Kerryon, and there are injury concerns, but he’s young and looked great to me; I’m sold on his talent.
Jacobs’ ranking is a bet on his draft capital, opportunity, youth, and receiving chops. I’m not 100% sold, but everyone in the tier has question.
Guys like Fournette and Cook, while talented, are too risky to value top 12, IMO. They would be in the next tier.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Where did you have him last year, and who are the guys you'd put ahead of him in this class?
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
He would be neck and neck with Harry for 1.02 for me. I'd probably lean Guice slightly because the horrific hit rate on 1st round WRs lately scares me.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Jacobs, Sanders, maybe Harry.tangfoot said:
I cant remember where I had him last year, somewhere 5 - 8. I wasn't in position to get him.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Seems like most have Guice at 1.02.Gottabesweet said:
I dont see why he is overwhelmingly favored over Sanders. Similar draft status, situations a little different. You could favor Guice in Washington, but hes recovering from an ACL - not always straight forward.
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I'm actually expecting the Bengals to be a much better passing team this season than last. Can't overstate how much the coaching change(and health) could make a difference. If Taylor is even 50% of McVay, this entire offense may be grossly undervalued. I don't think Green is on his last legs at all, and would happily trade the 1.1 for him. I like Boyd quite a bit as well, and think he could gain or lose value if he left Cincy. Its not a bad spot to be in. He proved a ton to me last year, and is still very young. I'd value Boyd at 1.4.
I think people are really sleeping on the Bengals offense. This same nucleus, started 4-1 last season, and was averaging 30+ ooints per game.
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Gottabesweet
Footballguy
Seems like they beefed up the Oline. Moved Cordy to LG and going to start the rookie as well. Good point. Could be a hold.travdogg said:
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I agree that peoppe are sleeping on them, but I see them as a sub .500 teamtravdogg said:
Boyd is the WR people love to hate. I'm one of them. However, if Boyd stays I absolutely love that long term for him
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Tau837
Footballguy
Immediate reaction comments:
- I would have Chubb in T4.
- I would have Gordon in T6... he is playing this season on his 5th year option, and I am cautiously optimistic the Chargers are not going to sign him to an extension, which would mean his situation is unknown beyond this season. He also has a lot of mileage and has missed games due to in jury in 3 or his 4 seasons.
- I would have Johnson in T7.
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wgoldsph
Footballguy
Harris replaces burkhead so that's all a wash.
You can't count the playoff stats alongside the regular season stats. They're entirely different beasts.
I'd be all over that deal. Big QB upgrade, and you get younger at WR, without losing current value.
If you do take that deal, I wouldn't rule Murray out. He could end up being better than Ryan long term, and is already better than Stafford.
Zyphros
Footballguy
Who are your value RB's people are buying for compete now teams? I feel like most of them are way too risky for the most part when in the past you could project a decent role. I'm talking like bye week fillers, maybe even flex spots.
The only ones I can think of are Cohen (now with the Montgomery vulture at least a little), James White, and Peyton Barber. Maybe Chris Thompson but he could easily be bench guy now with Guice healthy.
The only ones I can think of are Cohen (now with the Montgomery vulture at least a little), James White, and Peyton Barber. Maybe Chris Thompson but he could easily be bench guy now with Guice healthy.
jeaton6
Footballguy
Right, it’s actually even more impressive that the rookie put those stats up during the playoffs. His 4 game trend is even higher. They should count as double.
Ben & Jerry's
Footballguy
What about Darrell Henderson vs Kareem Hunt ?
The Gurley owner has Hunt and I have Chubb and Henderson.
I could work a deal offering Chubb for Gurley or Henderson for Hunt.
I can't decide which makes more sense.
The Gurley owner has Hunt and I have Chubb and Henderson.
I could work a deal offering Chubb for Gurley or Henderson for Hunt.
I can't decide which makes more sense.
