Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

[barackdhouse 2,038]

Not a lot of talking down going on here.

[RC94 1,986]

Has anyone seen any trades involving McLauren?  I haven't in any of my leagues. 

[Concept Coop 1,747]

Just now, RC94 said:

Has anyone seen any trades involving McLauren?  I haven't in any of my leagues. 

I just traded Sutton for him, essentially. I thought Sutton looked good last season, and see it as pretty close to a push. I just like Terry a tiny bit more.

[Buckna 1,389]

There was a lot of noise about the Redskins seeking a true #1 this past offseason to pair up with McLaurin. Rivera admitted 2 months ago that they threw a ton of money at Cooper but he elected to stay with Dallas. However, McLaurin made it through FA and the draft without any significant challenges so maybe those fears are unfounded.

[Milkman 2,348]

6 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

I just traded Sutton for him, essentially. I thought Sutton looked good last season, and see it as pretty close to a push. I just like Terry a tiny bit more.

Hopefully you got more than just a 1 for 1 swap. I can see preferring Terry (I don't) but the consensus value of both isn't close. 

[FreeBaGeL 8,819]

43 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

Not a lot of talking down going on here.

He has a girl's name.  AVOID.

[Concept Coop 1,747]

30 minutes ago, Buckna said:

There was a lot of noise about the Redskins seeking a true #1 this past offseason to pair up with McLaurin. Rivera admitted 2 months ago that they threw a ton of money at Cooper but he elected to stay with Dallas. However, McLaurin made it through FA and the draft without any significant challenges so maybe those fears are unfounded.

That’s a good point. And he’ll definitely face some real competition eventually. 
 

As for Haskins: I think he’ll bust, but he has a strong arm and throws a nice ball. I think he can support a top receiver, like Bortles and unlike Mariota. 

[FreeBaGeL 8,819]

McClaurin played 7 games that Haskins started last year.

He put up 30-460-2.

Over 16 games that is 68.5-1053-4.5 which is actually better than he was putting up before Haskins came in where everyone was so excited about him.

[Zyphros 1,889]

Highlights looked good but overall play I just don't think I watched him/Washington enough to get a good feel.  Going around WR27 in recent ADP, seems cheap enough, but it's grouped in with a bunch of other questionable #1's.  Deebo, Reagor, Jefferson, Diggs, Woods, Lockett, Boyd.  I think his value is where it belongs.  I can maybe see a case for maybe 3-4 spots higher but otherwise he's an avoid for me.  I'd rather go with a rookie I really like or super any of those WR's I mentioned because there are no QB or even offensive questions (other than the Burrow question mark).  

[Vandelay 223]

4 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

I think Terry McLaurin is criminally undervalued. Give me a reality check, please. 
 

I see the holes in his profile - college production, breakout age, etc. - but think he’s already established a solid floor. I think he is about as good as Amari Cooper - today. Like Cooper he’s a nightmare to cover - he runs precise and explosive routes - and can win at all levels. Perhaps he doesn’t have the lateral agility that Cooper does, but he was better in traffic last season. 

I’m probably wrong. Tell me why.

I'm a skins fan and watched him closely last year...hes just really really good.  The idea of getting Cooper wasn't a knock on him, rather a move to surround Haskins with weapons to see what they have at QB.  Obviously it didn't pan out but it shouldnt be seen as a slight.

He runs beautiful routes, excellent hands, attacks the ball, has fantastic body control in the air, has real speed AND deception...guy is a player.  I'm not a believer in Haskins however and his ceiling seems capped with him.  

Skins will be an improved team next year but it may not show up a lot in the win column.  On paper I struggle to identify a team they are clearly better than in the NFC and it may well result in another top 5 draft pick next year.  If that happens, Skins will be firmly in the QB hunt next offseason, which could be the best thing to happen for McLaurin.

The player though?  LEGIT.

[Milkman 2,348]

3 minutes ago, Vandelay said:

I'm a skins fan and watched him closely last year...hes just really really good.  The idea of getting Cooper wasn't a knock on him, rather a move to surround Haskins with weapons to see what they have at QB.  Obviously it didn't pan out but it shouldnt be seen as a slight.

He runs beautiful routes, excellent hands, attacks the ball, has fantastic body control in the air, has real speed AND deception...guy is a player.  I'm not a believer in Haskins however and his ceiling seems capped with him.  

Skins will be an improved team next year but it may not show up a lot in the win column.  On paper I struggle to identify a team they are clearly better than in the NFC and it may well result in another top 5 draft pick next year.  If that happens, Skins will be firmly in the QB hunt next offseason, which could be the best thing to happen for McLaurin.

The player though?  LEGIT.

That's a good point. They should be drafting a QB next year and they have a good shot at picking in the top 5. 

[Concept Coop 1,747]

1 hour ago, Vandelay said:

He runs beautiful routes

Yup. 

[Boston 2,996]

2 hours ago, Milkman said:

That's a good point. They should be drafting a QB next year and they have a good shot at picking in the top 5. 

On the flipside if they aren't top 5 there's a good chance it's because Haskins did develop so hopefully long-term it works out either way for McLaurin.

Edited May 14, 2020 by Boston

[Vandelay 223]

1 hour ago, Concept Coop said:

Yup. 

If I had to describe him in one word, it would be smooth.  He was the only thing worth watching last year.

[Dez 1,084]

Price check on Sony Michel...because I been trying to move him and no one wants this dude.  What an awful pick this was that year when everyone was taking all those RB's 1-8 in a row leaving DJ Moore, Calvin Ridley and Cortland Sutton for the teams at the end of round 1.

Besides Barkley and Chubb the other 6 have not done much in the 2 years meanwhile those 3 WR's values have sky rocketed. 

Everyone always wants to take the RB's but sometimes it's the WRs that you want to get.  They last a lot longer in most cases as well.

Edited May 14, 2020 by Dez

[Andy Dufresne 11,646]

16 minutes ago, Dez said:

Price check on Sony Michel...because I been trying to move him and no one wants this dude.  What an awful pick this was that year when everyone was taking all those RB's 1-8 in a row leaving DJ Moore, Calvin Ridley and Cortland Sutton for the teams at the end of round 1.

Besides Barkley and Chubb the other 6 have not done much in the 2 years meanwhile those 3 WR's values have sky rocketed. 

Everyone always wants to take the RB's but sometimes it's the WRs that you want to get.  They last a lot longer in most cases as well.

Ham sandwich on white. No toppings.

[Boston 2,996]

22 minutes ago, Dez said:

Price check on Sony Michel...because I been trying to move him and no one wants this dude.  What an awful pick this was that year when everyone was taking all those RB's 1-8 in a row leaving DJ Moore, Calvin Ridley and Cortland Sutton for the teams at the end of round 1.

Besides Barkley and Chubb the other 6 have not done much in the 2 years meanwhile those 3 WR's values have sky rocketed. 

Everyone always wants to take the RB's but sometimes it's the WRs that you want to get.  They last a lot longer in most cases as well.

I don't see anyone giving up too much for him, he has almost no buzz to him right now...you are probably just better off keeping him and hoping he can give you some quality depth to your RB unit...while he did not look good last year he still has a very good opportunity to be productive this year as the Pats did not draft a RB or add a vet in free agency (they added JJ Taylor as a UDFA but with his size he would probably have a different role if he works out)...the x-factor is Damien Harris but even if he is legit I gotta believe Michel still gets some carries although it would kill any upside, if Harris is not legit then Michel is their primary ball-carrier by default...as I always say once the injuries start piling up during the season a guy like Michel who is not too appealing right now may be able to bail you out of some weeks...also he is only 25 and did have over 900 yards both seasons as well as 6 and 7 TDs, the big issue with him is he is pretty much useless in the receiving games so he never gets those add-on points which can turn a bad week into a semi-decent week so his weekly floor can be a killer.

Edited May 14, 2020 by Boston

[menobrown 3,699]

29 minutes ago, Dez said:

Price check on Sony Michel...because I been trying to move him and no one wants this dude.  What an awful pick this was that year when everyone was taking all those RB's 1-8 in a row leaving DJ Moore, Calvin Ridley and Cortland Sutton for the teams at the end of round 1.

Besides Barkley and Chubb the other 6 have not done much in the 2 years meanwhile those 3 WR's values have sky rocketed. 

Everyone always wants to take the RB's but sometimes it's the WRs that you want to get.  They last a lot longer in most cases as well.

Worked out great for me.

 

[Zyphros 1,889]

2 hours ago, Dez said:

Price check on Sony Michel...because I been trying to move him and no one wants this dude.  What an awful pick this was that year when everyone was taking all those RB's 1-8 in a row leaving DJ Moore, Calvin Ridley and Cortland Sutton for the teams at the end of round 1.

Besides Barkley and Chubb the other 6 have not done much in the 2 years meanwhile those 3 WR's values have sky rocketed. 

Everyone always wants to take the RB's but sometimes it's the WRs that you want to get.  They last a lot longer in most cases as well.

At this point I'm not selling unless it's a late 2nd.  I know I won't get that but otherwise I'll hold and he can either be waiver wire fodder after I get tired of watching him be useless or he blows up this year and breaks out.  

[Hankmoody 3,739]

2 hours ago, Dez said:

Price check on Sony Michel...because I been trying to move him and no one wants this dude.  What an awful pick this was that year when everyone was taking all those RB's 1-8 in a row leaving DJ Moore, Calvin Ridley and Cortland Sutton for the teams at the end of round 1.

Besides Barkley and Chubb the other 6 have not done much in the 2 years meanwhile those 3 WR's values have sky rocketed. 

Everyone always wants to take the RB's but sometimes it's the WRs that you want to get.  They last a lot longer in most cases as well.

He just went for a 2021 3rd in one league.

[JoeJoe88 441]

2 hours ago, Zyphros said:

 

 

2 hours ago, Zyphros said:

or he blows up this year and breaks out. 

I think that ship has sailed.

[JohnnyU 3,934]

11 hours ago, Boston said:

I don't see anyone giving up too much for him, he has almost no buzz to him right now...you are probably just better off keeping him and hoping he can give you some quality depth to your RB unit...while he did not look good last year he still has a very good opportunity to be productive this year as the Pats did not draft a RB or add a vet in free agency (they added JJ Taylor as a UDFA but with his size he would probably have a different role if he works out)...the x-factor is Damien Harris but even if he is legit I gotta believe Michel still gets some carries although it would kill any upside, if Harris is not legit then Michel is their primary ball-carrier by default...as I always say once the injuries start piling up during the season a guy like Michel who is not too appealing right now may be able to bail you out of some weeks...also he is only 25 and did have over 900 yards both seasons as well as 6 and 7 TDs, the big issue with him is he is pretty much useless in the receiving games so he never gets those add-on points which can turn a bad week into a semi-decent week so his weekly floor can be a killer.

In HyperActive 1 I traded Michel and the .2.09 for the 2.03 and took Aiyuk.  In Ultimate Fantasy Dynasty devy league I traded Michel, the 2.12, and a 2021 2nd rd pick (I won last year) for the 2.03 and I took Kyle Pitts TE Florida.  In Hall of Fame Dynasty I traded Michel and the 3.05 for a 2021 2nd rd pick.  In Fantasy Legends II I traded Michel, Montgomery, and James Washington for the 1.05 and took CeeDee Lamb.

Edited May 15, 2020 by JohnnyU

[Boston 2,996]

38 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

In HyperActive 1 I traded Michel and the .2.09 for the 2.03 and took Aiyuk.  In Ultimate Fantasy Dynasty devy league I traded Michel, the 2.12, and a 2021 2nd rd pick (I won last year) for the 2.03 and I took Kyle Pitts TE Florida.  In Hall of Fame Dynasty I traded Michel and the 3.05 for a 2021 2nd rd pick.  In Fantasy Legends II I traded Michel, Montgomery, and James Washington for the 1.05 and took CeeDee Lamb.

Good examples of where his value is at which is not much...the thought of him moving you up only 6 spots in the second round this time last year would seem almost laughable but that is where he is...nice move on that last one, unless Montgomery shows a lot more this year the other guy is gonna really regret that one...not really sure what his thinking on that one is as the downside on this trade is pretty obvious.

Edited May 15, 2020 by Boston

[Matt's Eagles 22]

I am rebuilding, what is a reasonable asking price for Levon Bell to be dealt to a contender in rookie picks?  1.10?

[menobrown 3,699]

29 minutes ago, Matt's Eagles said:

I am rebuilding, what is a reasonable asking price for Levon Bell to be dealt to a contender in rookie picks?  1.10?

1.10 is reasonable IMO.

[Milkman 2,348]

3 hours ago, Matt's Eagles said:

I am rebuilding, what is a reasonable asking price for Levon Bell to be dealt to a contender in rookie picks?  1.10?

I always like to get a throw in player with the pick. Someone everyone is more down on than me.....so like a Darrell Henderson. 

Edited May 15, 2020 by Milkman

[Mark Football 172]

McClaurin vs. Slayton 

Who is in a better situation and why?

I know Mclaurin looked real good last season but Slayton looked good too, and is much cheaper right now.

[Andy Dufresne 11,646]

22 minutes ago, Mark Football said:

McClaurin vs. Slayton 

Who is in a better situation and why?

I know Mclaurin looked real good last season but Slayton looked good too, and is much cheaper right now.

McLaurin is the primary and almost only option.

Slayton is in the mix of nearly a dozen.

Advantage McLaurin.

[BradtheAg 138]

On 5/14/2020 at 12:17 PM, RC94 said:

Has anyone seen any trades involving McLauren?  I haven't in any of my leagues. 

Evans and 1.07

for

McLaurin, 1.03, 2.03, 3.11

[Milkman 2,348]

38 minutes ago, BradtheAg said:

Evans and 1.07

for

McLaurin, 1.03, 2.03, 3.11

That's a very interesting trade. I think I take the Evan's side but if you're in love with Dobbins or one of the 1st round WR I can see liking the other side. 

[robb 69]

Team A: trades two 2021 #1s ( both est. 1.01-1.03)

Team B: receives 2020 1.04

Dynasty, draft in August still to come. 

 

 

[Mark Football 172]

15 minutes ago, robb said:

Team A: trades two 2021 #1s ( both est. 1.01-1.03)

Team B: receives 2020 1.04

Dynasty, draft in August still to come. 

 

 

2 21 1sts if that's where they indeed end up.

[Dez 1,084]

Ended up flipping Michel + picks 20 and 47 for pick 10.

[Biabreakable 5,096]

On 5/14/2020 at 10:41 AM, Boone22 said:

I agree with you.  As an example.  A.J. Brown out scored McLaurin in my dynasty league by 3 points. 194 vs. 191.  But McLaurin missed 1 game while Brown missed ZERO.  And yet according to some sites (see below), Brown is ranked as WR11 in dynasty while McLaurin is all the way down at 25...why?

 

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/rankings/dynasty-wr.php

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/viewrankings-dynasty.php?viewpos=wr&howrecent=35

 

This is pretty interesting.

To answer your question Brown is 2 years younger than McClaurin and he has a more experienced QB to work with than McClaurin does.

I think that is too big of a gap to be reasonable, and that Brown is likely being over valued.

The both had fantastic rookie years. I was just looking at how good their rookie years were compared to all rookie seasons since 2000 with 900 or more receiving yards.

1	Keenan Allen	2013	21	3-76	SDG	NFL	15	14	0	0		0	0	0					0	0					0.0						105	71	1046	14.73	8	69.7	67.6%	9.96
2	Odell Beckham	2014	22	1-12	NYG	NFL	12	11	0	1	0.00	0	0	0		0	0.00	39.6	0	0	0.0%	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.0						130	91	1305	14.34	12	108.8	70.0%	10.04
3	Kelvin Benjamin	2014	23	1-28	CAR	NFL	16	15	0	0		0	0	0					0	0					0.0						145	73	1008	13.81	9	63.0	50.3%	6.95
4	Anquan Boldin	2003	23	2-54	ARI	NFL	16	16	0	1	0.00	0	0	1		0	100.00	0.0	0	0	0.0%	0.00	-45.00	-45.00	0.0	0	0	0			165	101	1377	13.63	8	86.1	61.2%	8.35
5	Dwayne Bowe	2007	23	1-23	KAN	NFL	16	15	0	0		0	0	0					0	0					0.0	0	0	0			116	70	995	14.21	5	62.2	60.3%	8.58
6	A.J. Brown	2019	22	2-51	TEN	NFL	16	11	0	0		0	0	0					0	0					0.0						84	52	1051	20.21	8	65.7	61.9%	12.51
7	Michael Clayton	2004	22	1-15	TAM	NFL	16	13	0	0		0	0	0					0	0					0.0	0	0	0			122	80	1193	14.91	7	74.6	65.6%	9.78
8	Marques Colston	2006	23	7-252	NOR	NFL	14	12	0	0		0	0	0					0	0					0.0	0	0	0			115	70	1038	14.83	8	74.1	60.9%	9.03
9	Amari Cooper	2015	21	1-4	OAK	NFL	16	15	0	0		0	0	0					0	0					0.0						130	72	1070	14.86	6	66.9	55.4%	8.23
10	Mike Evans	2014	21	1-7	TAM	NFL	15	15	0	0		0	0	0					0	0					0.0						122	68	1051	15.46	12	70.1	55.7%	8.61
11	A.J. Green	2011	23	1-4	CIN	NFL	15	15	0	0		0	0	0					0	0					0.0						115	65	1057	16.26	7	70.5	56.5%	9.19
12	DeSean Jackson	2008	22	2-49	PHI	NFL	16	15	0	1	0.00	0	0	1		0	100.00	0.0	0	0	0.0%	0.00	-45.00	-45.00	0.0	0	0	0			120	62	912	14.71	2	57.0	51.7%	7.60
13	Andre Johnson	2003	22	1-3	HOU	NFL	16	16	0	0		0	0	0					0	0					0.0	0	0	0			119	66	976	14.79	4	61.0	55.5%	8.20
14	Julio Jones	2011	22	1-6	ATL	NFL	13	13	0	0		0	0	0					0	0					0.0						95	54	959	17.76	8	73.8	56.8%	10.09
15	Terry McLaurin	2019	24	3-76	WAS	NFL	14	14	0	0		0	0	0					0	0					0.0						93	58	919	15.84	7	65.6	62.4%	9.88
16	D.K. Metcalf	2019	22	2-64	SEA	NFL	16	15	0	0		0	0	0					0	0					0.0						100	58	900	15.52	7	56.3	58.0%	9.00
17	Eddie Royal	2008	22	2-42	DEN	NFL	15	15	0	1	0.00	0	0	0		0	0.00	39.6	0	0	0.0%	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.0	0	0	0			129	91	980	10.77	5	65.3	70.5%	7.60
18	JuJu Smith-Schuster	2017	21	2-62	PIT	NFL	14	7	0	0		0	0	0					0	0					0.0						79	58	917	15.81	7	65.5	73.4%	11.61
19	Michael Thomas	2016	23	2-47	NOR	NFL	15	12	0	0		0	0	0					0	0					0.0						121	92	1137	12.36	9	75.8	76.0%	9.40
20	Sammy Watkins	2014	21	1-4	BUF	NFL	16	16	0	0		0	0	0					0	0					0.0						128	65	982	15.11	6	61.4	50.8%	7.67
Rk	Player	Year	Age	Draft	Tm	Lg	G	GS	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Pick6	TD%	Int%	Rate	Sk	Yds	Sk%	Y/A	AY/A	ANY/A	Y/G	W	L	T	4QC	GWD	Tgt	Rec	Yds	Y/R	TD	Y/G	Ctch%	Y/Tgt
21	Mike Williams	2010	23	4-101	TAM	NFL	16	16	0	0	

There are a few one year wonders in here but for the most part pretty good company to be in.

Also a promising sign for DK Metcalf. What is his ADP right now?

[Bucsfan5493 644]

Thoughts on Joe Mixon’s value? I feel that he’s pretty undervalued after a bit of an underwhelming season last year. That being said, I love his talent and workload, I think the Bengals offense will be much improved and score more with Burrow under center and their OL should be better than last year’s disaster after a couple of FA signings (would be even better if they sign Warford) + Jonah Williams being healthy this season.

I recently traded for 1.01 because I got an offer that was too good to pass up but is flipping that too much for Mixon? My team is ready to win now and while I have strong RB’s (Saquon, Chubb), my depth is very poor and Mixon could start for me in the FLEX over Robert Woods, as well as give me insurance in case Saquon or Chubb gets hurt.

[Milkman 2,348]

1 minute ago, Bucsfan5493 said:

Thoughts on Joe Mixon’s value? I feel that he’s pretty undervalued after a bit of an underwhelming season last year. That being said, I love his talent and workload, I think the Bengals offense will be much improved and score more with Burrow under center and their OL should be better than last year’s disaster after a couple of FA signings (would be even better if they sign Warford) + Jonah Williams being healthy this season.

I recently traded for 1.01 because I got an offer that was too good to pass up but is flipping that too much for Mixon? My team is ready to win now and while I have strong RB’s (Saquon, Chubb), my depth is very poor and Mixon could start for me in the FLEX over Robert Woods, as well as give me insurance in case Saquon or Chubb gets hurt.

I'd trade the 1.01 for Mixon. Think he's in line for a huge year. There is some holdout risk here though. 

[Bucsfan5493 644]

5 minutes ago, Milkman said:

I'd trade the 1.01 for Mixon. Think he's in line for a huge year. There is some holdout risk here though. 

Seems like the Bengals want to sign him long term and I’d think they wouldn’t want to have a distraction + key player held out for their franchise QB’s rookie season which makes me feel better about the potential holdout situation.

I’m thinking I’m going to offer 1.01 straight up to the Mixon owner and see what he says.

[barackdhouse 2,038]

4 minutes ago, Bucsfan5493 said:

Seems like the Bengals want to sign him long term and I’d think they wouldn’t want to have a distraction + key player held out for their franchise QB’s rookie season which makes me feel better about the potential holdout situation.

I’m thinking I’m going to offer 1.01 straight up to the Mixon owner and see what he says.

 

12 minutes ago, Milkman said:

I'd trade the 1.01 for Mixon. Think he's in line for a huge year. There is some holdout risk here though. 

I gotta figure after the Bell and Gordon holdouts, along with what happened with Gurley, that every single agent (that wasn't already on this wavelength already) in the sports world took a collective breath and said "never again". I just can't imagine him holding out. 

[menobrown 3,699]

8 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

 Igotta figure after the Bell and Gordon holdouts, along with what happened with Gurley, that every single agent (that wasn't already on this wavelength already) in the sports world took a collective breath and said "never again". I just can't imagine him holding out. 

Elliot's holdout was a success for him but I see no way on earth Mixon is holding out for more then 5 days. Really just no way you can anymore under the new CBA, especially when you are in the last year of your deal.

[Hankmoody 3,739]

I wouldn't give up Mixon for 1.01 because why?  So you can maybe get a guy that might transition as well as he did?  Unless my team is desperate and I need the homerun that Mixon isn't (he ain't Barkley or CMc) but the 1.01 could be (if CEH is actually Westbrook in that offense, or Taylor gets bellcow work behind that line and a real QB to keep the D honest) I would just stay with the known.  He's super talented and has produced nicely and improved and now that team might be improving too.  No reason to move that for what could be a Trent Richardson or a Leonard Fournette type arch.  Rookies bust and we know Mixon isn't.

Edited May 16, 2020 by Hankmoody

[Boone22 338]

1 hour ago, Biabreakable said:

This is pretty interesting.

To answer your question Brown is 2 years younger than McClaurin and he has a more experienced QB to work with than McClaurin does.

Just two quick comments;

1) McLaurin is only 24 so while you’re right that he’s two years older than Brown, does that really matter at that age?

2) People keep talking about Haskins being inexperienced and just plain “bad” but to me, that makes McLaurin’s performance EVEN more impressive.  Imagine if he was playing with Tannehill, like Brown did?   
 

Im not saying I disagree with your comments because I absolutely see your points.  I’m just don’t think either explain that drastic of a gap between the two (which you mentioned as well so I think we pretty much align) 🤝

[Milkman 2,348]

2 minutes ago, Boone22 said:

Just two quick comments;

1) McLaurin is only 24 so while you’re right that he’s two years older than Brown, does that really matter at that age?

2) People keep talking about Haskins being inexperienced and just plain “bad” but to me, that makes McLaurin’s performance EVEN more impressive.  Imagine if he was playing with Tannehill, like Brown did?   
 

Im not saying I disagree with your comments because I absolutely see your points.  I’m just don’t think either explain that drastic of a gap between the two (which you mentioned as well so I think we pretty much align) 🤝

Plus Haskins and McLaren were college teammates. That helps. 

[menobrown 3,699]

19 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

 Leonard Fournette type arch.  Rookies bust and we know Mixon isn't.

 

I actually think Fournette has had a better fantasy career then Mixon so far so I can't call Fournette a bust and say Mixon is not. I would personally label both of them as disappointing so far, but for me Mixon has been more so.

That's not the same thing as saying Fournette does not stand a much higher chance of spiraling down and becoming a bust more then Mixon. That's something else entirely, of course I like Mixon's future more.  But that, like pick  how pick 1.1 will perform, is a projection.

I'm not sure what I'd do if offered 1.1 for Mixon because my point here is not to defend Fournette but to say Mixon was one of the biggest busts of the year last year, is giving his owners an underwhelming 13.95 fantasy points in his career with one low end RB1 performance on his resume.  Him being a stud or elite fantasy prospect, like whoever you draft at 1.1, remains a projection.  Again I would not call Mixon a bust, but he's not performed like a stud either for fantasy purposes.

 

[Biabreakable 5,096]

2 minutes ago, Boone22 said:

Just two quick comments;

1) McLaurin is only 24 so while you’re right that he’s two years older than Brown, does that really matter at that age?

I dont think the age difference matters that much as far as their career path and what they can do this season and the near future. WR tend to peak in their performance at age 26 to 28 and then a shallow decline until 32 years old where the decline gets steeper historically.

It does matter if you are looking at things from the view of break out age and what those studies say about a players odds to have a successful career. The younger prospects having a better chance of having a good career.

I am not saying I agree with that specifically when it comes to McClaurin having worse odds of having a good career for FF. I just acknowledge this perception exists and may continue to exist based on the difference of the players ADP.

I think you make a good point that perhaps we shouldn't still be evaluating these players through such a lens when they have already proven to be performers in their rookie seasons. That is why I brought up the list of WR who had 900 yards or more in their rookie seasons. It is a pretty short list. 21 players. Being curious I looked at all WR going back to 1990 and that only adds 5 more players. Randy Moss, Terry Glenn, Joey Galloway, Kevin Johnson and Eddie Kennison.

53% of this sample has happened in the last 10 seasons. So the NFL changes have caused more WR hit this 900 yard threshold as rookies than they had prior to 2010.

Going back to the age question. Only two WR in this sample were 24 years old as rookies. McClaurin and Joey Galloway. 58% of the guys who did this as rookies were 22 or younger in their rookie season.

50% of these players were 1st round picks. 31% of them were 2nd round picks, McClaurin and Keenan Allen were the only 3rd round picks. 

To answer your question the age matters differently to different people.

2 minutes ago, Boone22 said:

2) People keep talking about Haskins being inexperienced and just plain “bad” but to me, that makes McLaurin’s performance EVEN more impressive.  Imagine if he was playing with Tannehill, like Brown did?   

I am still trying to come to grips with this alternate reality where Ryan Tannehill is considered to be a good QB. Small sample size. But the QB do seem to play their best football age 28-32 which is the window he is in right now.

2 minutes ago, Boone22 said:

m not saying I disagree with your comments because I absolutely see your points.  I’m just don’t think either explain that drastic of a gap between the two (which you mentioned as well so I think we pretty much align) 🤝

Yeah I don;t think the age and draft position are enough to justify the gap in value. At the same time I am looking at why people may be so high on AJ Brown and how reasonable that is.

[rockaction 23,053]

Tried to get Kareem Hunt and Tony Pollard for a mid first-round pick in 2021. Guy needed to hold Hunt.

It doesn't fit the calculators, but I really don't blame him. If you've held Hunt for this long, he's just about at free agency this next year, so why not see where he goes. IMO, Hunt's value can only increase as time moves along. Get him now. 

eta* I should say I tried to get Higbee, too, but it was an initial offer and no counter-offer was sent in regard to anyone. He's jus' holding. 

Edited May 16, 2020 by rockaction

[IHEARTFF 1,045]

mmm Higbee

[rockaction 23,053]

4 minutes ago, IHEARTFF said:

mmm Higbee

Gotta love some Higbee, I guess. That was really what he said. Wasn't gonna move Higbee. Or Hunt, for that matter.

I dunno, guy drafted ninth, so finished in fourth. What the heck do I know? I only know I was pretty clear in stating that I was really interested in Hunt and Pollard. Pollard went unmentioned in his response, though he had earlier won auctions for two Dallas rookie RBs at a buck a pop.

I'm the guy who rosters Elliott. Is he trying to tell me something?

[IHEARTFF 1,045]

Not sure, but I think Pollard is key for Zeke owners if they can get him.

[rockaction 23,053]

7 minutes ago, IHEARTFF said:

Not sure, but I think Pollard is key for Zeke owners if they can get him.

Yeah, I just tried.

What would a price check on Tony Pollard be, then?

A mid first-rounder for he and Hunt was a pretty significant offer.  Calcs have me losing by a lot in that deal, but I'd still take it.

Edited May 16, 2020 by rockaction

[IHEARTFF 1,045]

1 minute ago, rockaction said:

Yeah, I just tried.

What would a price check on Tony Pollard be, then?

A mid first-rounder for he and Hunt was a pretty significant offer.  Calcs have me losing by a lot in that deal, but I'd still take it.

Yeah that's a hefty price. Not sure of Pollard alone. Probably ahead of Zach Moss so early 2ndish.