King of the Jungle
Footballguy
You are a 100% right, not sure what the heck I was thinking for that moment. Goodness gracious I need to start doing crossword puzzles again.
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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (14 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
Jebus that's an awful trade. I think I prefer Sanders over all three of those guys individually. To get the 1.03 for that collection of marginality is one hell of a coup.
You did not think that was Miles Sanders or not see Ekeler as part of this trade by chance?
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Encumbrance
Footballguy
This is exactly what I got moving down from 1.01. Huh. People said it was a bad deal. I still think it was okay, not great, but okay.
Encumbrance
Footballguy
Anyone think that Barkley's value is somewhere around Elliott + Boyd or something like him + future mid-to-late first?
Elliott is four or five overall dynasty, though Barkley's up a tier, maybe.
Elliott is four or five overall dynasty, though Barkley's up a tier, maybe.
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
I just traded Zeke, Calvin Ridley and Diontae Johnson for Barkley and Keenan Allen. I feel good about the trade because as you said, Barkley is a tier up from Zeke in my mind.
Encumbrance
Footballguy
Kudos. I think I remember your trade somewhere in this trading ether we call the dynasty value threads of the SP. Just trying to get a gauge on it. Anyway, up top is what I'm offering the Barkley guy. It might be too much -- and looking at your trade probably so, as you got Allen back -- but somehow I could live with it. I can also live with it if he turns it down, that's how fair I think the deal is.
I paid 3/8 to move to 1 and offered 4/8 to move to 1 in another league and got rejected. Maybe that can provide some baseline for the second question and maybe even the third.
Zyphros
Footballguy
I don't think that's enough for Barkley honestly. Elliott might be dynasty RB3-5 but the gap between him and CMC/Barkley is very large to me. Mostly due to the wear and tear on Elliott by now. I don't like Boyd either, so what other WR is in that range? Parker, Kirk, Diontae? They might have a good season or 2 here and there, but what advantage are they really? Not much.
Encumbrance
Footballguy
Thanks for the feedback. I don't want to put too fine a point on it but Boyd is going around the 1.10 pick and the other pick would likely be late, so it'd be Zeke plus two late first-rounders, which might not do it for most people. I'm not sure I'd trade but I'd at least try and counter (it'll go nowhere. That's all I'd be willing to give for one guy. Personal preferences may vary.)
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
A little light for me, I would want a little more incentive to move down.IHEARTFF said:
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I moved a future 1st to move from 1.05 to 1.02, getting the 3.02 back.
kutta
Footballguy
I probably would not give up the top 6 or 7 WR's for the 1.03 (Thomas, Hill, Godwin, Evans, Hopkins, Adams) for the 1.03. Anyone else I may. So I'd say if you can get one of those guys you'd be doing well.
DJ Moore or AJ Brown move the needle enough for you to move the 1.03?
they are close for me because even though they haven’t consistently shown it, their age makes them so appealing.
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kutta
Footballguy
EBF
Footballguy
I guess I'm down on the 1.03 compared to most people because I wouldn't give a top 15 dynasty WR for it.
Players like JuJu, AJB, and Moore are the best-case scenario for how a rookie might turn out, so there's no sense giving them up just to roll the dice again.
Only makes sense if you need a RB and think one of Dobbins, Swift, or Akers is a lock.
It's likely that one of them will hit, but I wouldn't give up a top WR to find out.
Players like JuJu, AJB, and Moore are the best-case scenario for how a rookie might turn out, so there's no sense giving them up just to roll the dice again.
Only makes sense if you need a RB and think one of Dobbins, Swift, or Akers is a lock.
It's likely that one of them will hit, but I wouldn't give up a top WR to find out.
I own Moore in dynasty and would not move him for the 1.03. Honestly, if I were offered the 1.01 for him right now I’m not sure what I would do. If I were a Brown owner, I would probably take the 1.03 for him, though.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I agree that those WRs are > 1.03 but I absolutely don't agree they are the best case scenario for how a rookie might turn out.
People have drafted guys like McCaffrey, Mixon, and Chubb at 1.03 over the last few years and all of those guys are currently worth more than the WRs, in CMC's case a lot more.
Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
Throwing McCaffrey as an example of a guy that was had at 1.03 is a complete anomaly. His production won’t be seen from a non 1.01/1.02 “generational” back probably for quite some time. And while Chubb and Mixon are solid young backs they are still only slightly value above Moore. Their value will decrease sooner than a Moore or Brown’s value will and as others mentioned You could miss entirely with the pick. I will be actively trying to land one when I get on the clock.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Not really relevant when you look at the quote I was responding to, which considered a best case scenario.
Le'Veon was a 1.03 as well. I remember because I drafted him there.
Regarding the last half of the quote it's skipping ahead to assume that Moore/AJB/JUJU won't decrease in value themselves. Lots of young promising WRs have faded off the same way RBs have. The bottom line is like 50% of the 1.03's over the last few years have been worth more than those guys so to say those guys are an absolutely best case scenario for 1.03 is not true. If Dobbins/Swift end up being merely pretty good over the next year or two they will be 1st round startup picks which is more than Moore/AJB/Juju are worth right now.
I'm not saying that value increase is worth the added risk involved, as I said above I prefer DJM or AJB to the 1.03, I'm just saying that calling late 2nd/early 3rd round startup players the best case value scenario for 1.03 is way off. A bunch of guys drafted in the top 5 of rookie drafts have exceeded that value over the last few years, some by a lot.
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Encumbrance
Footballguy
I get what FreeBagel was saying and sort of agree with it. I think both sides have good points. The only thing I'd think is that you want more of a sure thing if you have the 1.03 because chances are that your margin for error is so slim when trying to improve a team that is lousy. To wit: I think that Swift at 1.03/1.04 is a big risk because he has no clear path to starting in the next two years other than injury, IIRC. Kerryon's talent is there. The coach is an RBBC guy. Where's the implicit guarantee he'll start in Year Two, even? As for the other pick, Dobbins best hope he flashes in practice and the few carries he'll get in games, or they'll bring Ingram back for cheap in Baltimore, if you ask me. They don't care about fantasy drafts or even these guys' individual careers. It's all team first, head coach first.
Too much risk there in terms of situation this year.
Too much risk there in terms of situation this year.
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Not sure why what Freebagel said is being debated. He said, and provided examples of players picked at 1.3 whose value is higher then those WR's mentioned in response to a comment you can't get more value. You can get more value. You can also lose value but as he pointed out those WR's are not locked into their value either.
Encumbrance
Footballguy
You're right. I think somewhere along the line the premises got changed and it became about risk aversion. FreeBagel was technically right; the implications of what he was saying naturally lend itself to a risk disucssion.
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I actually view Swift as safe myself, it's just a matter of how high of a floor. No clear path to being a bell cow maybe but you don't need to be a bell cow especially when you are very skilled at receiving. The receiving part IMO, which is a great part of his game, provides him a solid floor which is why I think he's actually safe.
Yes Kerryon remains, the guy who can't stay healthy and fumbled away his shot last year with health but also not performing well which almost seems to be forgotten . And also fair to note Kerryon was #4 in rushing attempts last year after 4 weeks, then he had a bye in week 5 and got hurt in week 7 but averaged a healthy 17.4 per carries his first 5 full games before going down. I don't think DET is a bell cow RB destination but it may not be NE Midwest as everyone assumes either and Bevell, who has a history with some bell cow RB's might have a say in their usage.
Saying that I personally don't expect Swift to be a bell cow but don't think he needs to be either but while he has no implicit guarantee he starts year one or two the job is also there for the taking on day one.
Agree on Dobbins.
Or you could pick Akers at 1.3 and have who I believe is the Rams starting RB.
I'm not saying any of these options are better then DJ Moore or JuJu. I'd take them all over AJ Brown myself so put me down for that. But as Freebagel has been alluding to WR is deep now and if you don't have a high pick you are taking second rate RB's hoping one hits which is why players like Vaughn are going over first round pedigreed WR's. And have you checked out next years early draft outlook? The top RB's right now on almost everyone's list are RB's who could have come out this year but remained but most mocks have 7-9 WR's. WR is deep and just getting deeper.
At some point, and I think this is the big thing people miss on why some teams trade for high picks to draft a RB, is when your team is consistently good your opportunity to draft a RB without reaching is almost impossible. So yes trading a "proven" player for a high pick has risk but it's a risk that at some point might need to be taken because just sitting back and trying to draft a RB when you constantly pick late round one is not easy.
Both of them saw their value at least hold if not increase once they started playing. I mention that to highlight how much people will pay for a RB, that if you did not like what you bought you had ample opportunity to get out and also to point out, which again freebagel has alluded to, that WR's can lose value as well. I mean this should not need to be said because one of the WR's being discussed, JuJu, has lost a lot of value in the fantasy community. I value him a lot more then most but I've been seeing him traded for not even half of what he was worth last year.
And that draft year with those two RB's you mentioned I'd point out I drafted Guice twice, Michel twice, ROJO twice and Penny once. I still own ROJO in two leagues and Guice in one. But I made profits or at least broke even dealing Guice, Michel twice and Penny because teams needed RB's so badly.
Encumbrance
Footballguy
This is a really fair point and I lost the fact that the original argument involved trading. I was assuming the team with the 1.03 wasn't very good and forgot someone was trading in with a WR.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yes, and in my experience the teams that are the most risk averse (to this specific kind of example) are the ones that end up stagnant and ####ty. As a result I believe you can make the argument that it is actually more risky to be risk averse. Or that is to say the downside can be greater. As with all things, you're hoping for balance. Not your entire squad is going to be made up of chalk, just like your whole squad shouldn't be flyers with upside, but you definitely want both. And less of a third kind, which is the depreciating vet(s), the roster cloggers.
Good perspectives on Akers and Swift. I've really hated both their landing spots for the most part and have avoided everywhere. But there is a lot of time between now and week 1 to keep evaluating, and I probably should do so on a handful of rookies. Ruggs, Reagor, Mims are some other names I didn't come away with in any rookie drafts or the two startups I did this year, and will want to revisit. I more or less grabbed Dobbins, Jefferson and Pittman almost everywhere, and a few sprinkles of CEH, Taylor, Vaughn, Edwards, Aiyuk and Claypool. A couple Gibsons. But looking ahead to redraft and especially the FPC (I've drafted 3 so far - I'm crazy) I really want to see if there are some rookies I've been avoiding that I should reconsider, even in a virus impacted season with rookies. Rookie RBs especially, and Akers and Swift should probably be bumped higher on my board I'm guessing.
ETA - not going to go into a redraft tangent ^^^ here but I do tend to be biased for rookies in dynasties that I think can have an immediate impact, so my redraft board doesn't always look so different from dynasty in terms of the rookies.
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Hankmoody
Footballguy
In a PPR I would move 1.03 for DJ Moore in a flash. AJ Brown would be coin flip value.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Marginal/sleeper rookies - blind bid waiver value?
on a $500 budget, what would you spend on:
1. Darnell Mooney
2. James Proche
3. Michael Warren
4. Quez Watkins
5. Salvan Ahmed
6. John Hightower
7. James Morgan
8. Joe Reed
9. Josiah Deguara
on a $500 budget, what would you spend on:
1. Darnell Mooney
2. James Proche
3. Michael Warren
4. Quez Watkins
5. Salvan Ahmed
6. John Hightower
7. James Morgan
8. Joe Reed
9. Josiah Deguara
EBF
Footballguy
The hit rate on day 2 RBs (i.e. Swift/Akers/Dobbins) doesn't justify giving up a bird-in-hand young star WR like Moore, JuJu, or AJB except in leagues with extremely skewed formats that lend artificial value to the RB position. There are 4-5 RBs this good in every draft class. They aren't a special commodity.
The idea that "they'll carry value a year from now even if they don't hit long-term" is built on the hypothetical reality where you can always recognize the hits from the misses and sell accordingly, but that's not how things typically work in practice. If you burned a top 5 rookie pick on a back like Kevin Jones, Julius Jones, Anthony Thomas, or Doug Martin who peaked as a rookie, it's pretty likely that you would've bought into the hype after his big rookie year and held the bomb while it exploded on your roster. Most people don't cash out when their young RBs show promise. I don't see Miles Sanders or Josh Jacobs owners desperate to make deals right now. If you draft someone like Swift and he ends up being a long-term mediocrity, there's a pretty good chance that you'll be the one stuck with him.
3/5 of my leagues are very flex-y with only 1 mandatory RB spot, so maybe that colors my perspective some, but I'm definitely not itching to trade my rookie draft hits like Deebo and JuJu for a Cam Akers who's probably a 30% chance to become Ray Rice/40% chance to become Zac Stacy/30% chance to become Kenny Irons. I don't believe the math supports that move, and if I were desperate for RB help then there are numerous alternatives I can explore (pay a premium for an elite back, pay less for an aging veteran, or buy a cheaper prospect). I'd rather make a big play for a Mixon, go the short-term rental route with a Henry/Gordon/Drake type, or make a bargain play for a D Harris/Edmonds/Mattison than sell off top 10-15 dynasty WRs for an average day two RB talent.
If your league format makes it logical to sell off your best young players for mediocre rookie prospects at another position, your league format is pretty imbalanced.
The idea that "they'll carry value a year from now even if they don't hit long-term" is built on the hypothetical reality where you can always recognize the hits from the misses and sell accordingly, but that's not how things typically work in practice. If you burned a top 5 rookie pick on a back like Kevin Jones, Julius Jones, Anthony Thomas, or Doug Martin who peaked as a rookie, it's pretty likely that you would've bought into the hype after his big rookie year and held the bomb while it exploded on your roster. Most people don't cash out when their young RBs show promise. I don't see Miles Sanders or Josh Jacobs owners desperate to make deals right now. If you draft someone like Swift and he ends up being a long-term mediocrity, there's a pretty good chance that you'll be the one stuck with him.
3/5 of my leagues are very flex-y with only 1 mandatory RB spot, so maybe that colors my perspective some, but I'm definitely not itching to trade my rookie draft hits like Deebo and JuJu for a Cam Akers who's probably a 30% chance to become Ray Rice/40% chance to become Zac Stacy/30% chance to become Kenny Irons. I don't believe the math supports that move, and if I were desperate for RB help then there are numerous alternatives I can explore (pay a premium for an elite back, pay less for an aging veteran, or buy a cheaper prospect). I'd rather make a big play for a Mixon, go the short-term rental route with a Henry/Gordon/Drake type, or make a bargain play for a D Harris/Edmonds/Mattison than sell off top 10-15 dynasty WRs for an average day two RB talent.
If your league format makes it logical to sell off your best young players for mediocre rookie prospects at another position, your league format is pretty imbalanced.
jabarony
Footballguy
Apparently those are the only guys left?
Even without knowing your roster size, rules, etc. I'd say save your $ for a week 1 or 2 wonder. If you must, I'd take Warren, cheap.
Zyphros
Footballguy
$5 max for whoever you actually like. Out of those names the only ones I'd consider is Mooney, Warren, Watkins, Hightower and Reed. But I would probably put $0 bids in and save it for in season since they're end of bench hopeful's that if they don't garner some hype in pre-season you're just cutting them anyways. If I didn't get them for $0 then so be it.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Well, there’s a bunch of guys. These are the only guys left that I had ranked, and that pop up on various “sleeper” lists.
I’m actually quite high on Mooney & he’s the one of two I put in a small bid for (the other being Warren)
the rest I was just curious where the denizens of FBG had them valued.
wgoldsph
Footballguy
In an off season where these guys will have almost no time to make an impression I can't see any of them making a good return until next year, and by then there's going to be a new group of rookies to drool over.
Like everyone else said, 5 bucks if you need to have someone, otherwise it's a waste of a roster spot.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Well, our rosters expanded & I had 0 draft picks, so I need to try for a couple of em. lol
But this was more of a general question. Those were the FAs after our draft that I’ve consistently seen on sleeper lists.
i like Mooney, Proche, Hightower & Warren. I think $5/$500 is a little light, as I can’t be the only one interested in those guys but probably true that most on this list won’t be worth much never know though.
Lottery tickets do hit sometimes.
ZWK
Footballguy
It depends a bit on roster size & how good the waiver wire options tend to be in your league, but I'd probably stick to the minimum bid for these guys ($0 or $1). None of them are in the top 50 in my rookie rankings. In most leagues I'd expect at least a few of them to pass through waivers unclaimed, and I don't see much difference between my favorite of the bunch and my 5th favorite. So I'd just rank them and see which one fell to me for the minimum bid.
