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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread


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On 8/8/2020 at 2:27 PM, rockaction said:

Yeah, that is indeed a given. What would you move him for? Assume you're really in no position to win now. One of the young RBs and a first? Would you move him for Dobbins and Jacobs? What would you say to that as the Dobbins/Jacobs owner?

If that's too specific, what sort of package would you be looking for if you were the Elliott owner? What would you give up to get him?

I mean, fairly assessed, Elliott has two more years of peak production left in him, if that. It might behoove one to sell now rather than wait for the decline. He'll be scoring points on somebody else's team, just not yours. (But you're not winning now.) 

I considered an offer of Dobbins, Deebo and a 1st (likely 5 or 6 overall next year) for him but decided I had a chance to win. If not I think it was fair

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4 minutes ago, KChusker said:

I considered an offer of Dobbins, Deebo and a 1st (likely 5 or 6 overall next year) for him but decided I had a chance to win. If not I think it was fair

Thanks for the response. Yeah, that's close to fair, but i wouldn't take it either, even with no chance to win. I'd really like to see a guy other than Deebo in there. I'd need something more certain that that, I guess.

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45 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

I can’t see anything less than his offers to you being accepted. I wouldn’t want any of those lower-tier players in return if I was giving up CMC. Fournette is a non-starter in this conversation.

Henry and Nuk are declining dynasty assets (or very soon will be). Cash them in on the #1 RB for the next five years. 

I think this is the right answer...  Sure, it would be nice to pay less but the guy giving up "Run CMC" doesn't want less.

Maybe have him throw in a prospect WR or a non-premium draft pick.

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1 minute ago, DropKick said:

I think this is the right answer...  Sure, it would be nice to pay less but the guy giving up "Run CMC" doesn't want less.

Maybe have him throw in a prospect WR or a non-premium draft pick.

“I’ll trade you my fruit roll up for your pudding”

”no thanks, but I have these tasty carrots I’ll give you”

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1 minute ago, hispeedthinmint said:

What free dynasty PPR trade calculators are good?

None... dynasty trade calculator is $10 for the year I think? Dynasty trade analyzer is $10 for the year + their year long subscription if you don’t he draft king’s promo like FBGs. Hinderlys dynasty value chart is $10 for the same promo. $10 is a small investment IMO but I get it if people don’t want to go that route. In that case dynasty 101 might be best... Id rather ask Twitter-verse @myfantasyleague using polls in that case. 

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Henry and AR15 would be an overpay by about the value of a mid to late 2nd... he might take that. I think it’s inevitable Hopkins takes a dip on a new team, especially without camp. I’m not sure you’re starting him by the end of the year considering the strength of your roster. I’d seriously consider it, or ask for a little bit more back. 
 

Stacking CMC with Barkley and even Cook and Fournette is insane; who cares if you over pay, you’ve got a cheat code almost guaranteeing you to win, plus I like CMCs longevity more than Henry. 

Edited by Johnny B. Goode
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2 minutes ago, hispeedthinmint said:

He doesn't have much worth asking for him to add, though. WHat about Hopkins + Fournette?

He has Gurley & Julio & Edelman & Engram, but no real interest from me there. I actually traded Edelman last year. Gurley won't help my team & my WRs are stacked so don't need Julio. He also has Sims & Fant which I like as prospects

Looks like he is using CMC to rebuild.  I understand why he wants Henry/NUK.  Ask for a 2021 2nd round pick?  Gives you a free roster spot to play with now and a future asset.

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1 minute ago, hispeedthinmint said:

He doesn't have much worth asking for him to add, though. WHat about Hopkins + Fournette?

He has Gurley & Julio & Edelman & Engram, but no real interest from me there. I actually traded Edelman last year. Gurley won't help my team & my WRs are stacked so don't need Julio. He also has Sims & Fant which I like as prospects

Yeah that’s about equal to ARob and Henry... the problem is Fournettes perceived value in the dynasty committee is rock bottom for a weird reason (guy finished with a career year and shut up critics about his receiving limitations). 
 

Fant would be nice, but chances are he wants to hold, but it could be worth a try.

 

you could try ARob, Hopkins, Fournette for CMC and Julio. That’s pretty darn close. But again, Fournette is a nonstarter for some

 

Id ask for a future pick (2nd). That never loses value (only gains) and you can always use it in a deal as a throw in to get the deal done 

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Dan Hindery's trade value chart is my go-to option for evaluating trades. It is better than anything else I've seen at correctly valuing what it's worth to get the best player in the deal, open up a roster spot, etc. He has Henry + Hopkins worth CMC + late 2021 3rd. So, it's very close to even - just very slightly in the other guy's favor.

I disagree with Hindery a bit about those particular players in a way that would tip things in favor of the CMC side, even ignoring the particulars of your roster.

And when you have a stacked roster, the main way that you can improve your starting lineup is by trading away very good players to consolidate into studs. Often you'd have to overpay by a fair amount to pry someone like the #1 overall player out of another owner's hands, and it can still be worth it to make those trades if they'll make your roster better and you don't have other good ways to make your roster better. In this case, it is not an overpay at all (by my valuation of these players) or just very barely an overpay (by Hindery's numbers).

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If you want to trade multiple players for CMC, fair value isn’t equal to two Grants for the Benjamin. It’s standard that you have to pay a premium to get the best player in a deal. And if that player is CMC or Barkley, there’s an additional premium required. Ask the guy for his 2021 1st back in the deal he wants to do. If he says no, say you’ll put in your 2nd. If he turns that down, say you’ll take his 2nd. 

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3 hours ago, fruity pebbles said:

Gonna sting to get CMac. He’s unacquirable in most leagues. Think the guy made you a pretty fair offer for him. 

This. Not only unavailable but the guy made a very fair offer. He was probably a little relieved that the offer was turned down actually. I would have snapped up CMac in a second given that roster and offer.

 

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13 hours ago, RushHour said:

I know that "3 firsts" looks sexy at first glance but when you have an asset like Lamar in superflex you can't be trading for random firsts, especially when two of them are so far out. I know there are differing views on the value of future picks, but personally a 22 1st (let alone a 23 1st) doesn't have much value to me unless you are in a genuine rebuild.

I'd say if you're going to consider trading Lamar in superflex you need to get a QB downgrade back in the trade (Tyrod doesn't count lol) and, if picks are included, you need to do this closer to next year's draft so you know what range of the draft you're getting. 

Thank you for helping me validated my thought process. This league was started this year. The only reason I entertained the offer is because during the start up I was able to sell of Ekler for a nice haul. That trade made me realize anyone is for sale if the price is right.

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14 hours ago, hispeedthinmint said:

You don't think I'd be making a huge overpay? I do. Maybe I'm biased lol

I do think it’s an overpay. But I also think it’s an overpay that you can afford and Barkley and cmac with fournette behind them is a remarkable starting lineup for the rob postioon. 

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3 minutes ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Now that I was able to get CMC without moving Henry, I am thinking I should maybe sell high on Henry for another RB + starting WR and/or draft pick(s)... WHich players to target? I have not thought that far ahead lol

I can’t  believe you got cmac with fournette. Nice trade! 

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18 minutes ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Now that I was able to get CMC without moving Henry, I am thinking I should maybe sell high on Henry for another RB + starting WR and/or draft pick(s)... WHich players to target? I have not thought that far ahead lol

For me, I’d look to get young (not that Henry is old). Dobbins might be perfect, if you like him, because his owner has to wait a year maybe for him to produce. Henry will produce now.
Dobbins and Bryan Edwards is close. Dobbins and a 2021 2nd

Edited by Johnny B. Goode
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12 hours ago, ZWK said:

I would give Hopkins + Henry for CMC, especially with your stacked roster. I predict that your roster will score more points if it has McCaffrey on it.

It's an overpay but in that situation it's well worth it. He'd still have plenty of depth and one of the best starting lineups I've seen with 4 out of the top 5 consensus redraft picks in CMC, Barkley, Cook and Thomas - and Tyreke Hill should be not far behind.

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5 minutes ago, hispeedthinmint said:

QB (Start 1) = Watson & Dan Jones

TE (Start 1) = Andrews, Ebron, Herndon & Gesicki. Been trying to move Ebron, but no dice.

You're all set to go, and we all envy that lineup wow. I guess your only concern is if they play the season.

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56 minutes ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Wow, too much for Sanders IMO. I tried to trade Fournette + more in this same PPR for Sanders & got shot down

He wants Godwin plus something for Sanders and something. Its standard scoring. Depending on what the something is, I would be swapping my starters from Godwin to Sanders and keeping my #1 and #7 picks to add a rb/rb or rb/wr depending on how draft goes. I start Hopkins also have Keenan Allen and Lockett at WR, but only need to start 1 if I start 3 rb..Worth it?

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1 hour ago, BearsFan4Life said:

He wants Godwin plus something for Sanders and something. Its standard scoring. Depending on what the something is, I would be swapping my starters from Godwin to Sanders and keeping my #1 and #7 picks to add a rb/rb or rb/wr depending on how draft goes. I start Hopkins also have Keenan Allen and Lockett at WR, but only need to start 1 if I start 3 rb..Worth it?

I am not high on Godwin like everyone else is so I would be willing to put in a solid asset - any QB not named MVP in the last two years or anyone from say Le'Veon Bell on down.  Get a flier WR back or a 2nd and draft Edwards.  Without knowing rosters my offer would be like Godwin and Bell for Sanders and Slayton

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10 hours ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Has anyone seen any Derrick Henry trades in dynasty PPR lately? Curious on his value

You really need to subscribe to DFL...

trade finder: 

2021 1st and Montgomery for Henry

1.05 and 1.16 for Henry

2021 1, 2, 3 for Henry

Sanders for Henry and Shenault

Kamara for Henry


you may think Dobbins + 2021 2nd is too light but that’s Henry’s value (picks 5 and 16 is about right too). It’s not astronomical. You’re better off holding if you are looking to cash out at a higher level than 1.03 + 2021 2nd value. As you can see above... Montgomery and a 1st, Id rather have Henry but that’s Henry’s value 

Edited by Johnny B. Goode
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3 hours ago, hispeedthinmint said:

I too am not high on Godwin & prefer Sanders (Unless someone needs  WR)

He also wants Watson (I also have Mahomes and Cam) .. maybe can try Godwin and Watson for Sanders and pick 16 (2.02 in 14 team league) leaving me the main team pieces of:

Mahomes, Cam

CMC, Henry, Sanders, DFreeman (hopefully he finds a home)

Nuk, KAllen, Lockett, Dede

Kelce, Higbee

Picks 1.01, 1.07, 1.13, 2.02, 2.08

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10 hours ago, hispeedthinmint said:

That's too light IMO.

I sent out an email to the league putting Henry on the block & the guy that traded CMC to me offered his 2010 1st round pick. Too light!

Too light? I think you'd have a hard time finding a Dobbins owner who would do that trade. A lot of people would rather have Dobbins straight up.

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51 minutes ago, RushHour said:

Too light? I think you'd have a hard time finding a Dobbins owner who would do that trade. A lot of people would rather have Dobbins straight up.

I wouldn’t trade my Dobbins for Henry, no way. A year from now Dobbins could very well >>>>> Henry

Edited by Johnny B. Goode
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5 minutes ago, rockaction said:

How did you guys get Dobbins out of a 2010 1st round pick? I have no clue what that offer even means...

He asked what he could do to move Henry. I suggested a rookie RB and a 2nd next year. Dobbins isn’t a bad target because he doesn’t have a lot of hype, and he is likely 2nd string for at least some of the season. 
 

Thinmint said it was too light, and even the guy who he just traded with offered his 2021 (typo, unless he honestly offered the guy he drafted round 1 in 2010) and said that was too light. Yes, a random 2021 1st is too light, but a top 2, maybe 3 pick is probably about what his going rate is. I’d rather have Dobbins than any RB next year. I’d rather have Dobbins than Henry easy

Edited by Johnny B. Goode
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2 minutes ago, Johnny B. Goode said:

He asked what he could do to move Henry. I suggested a rookie RB and a 2nd next year. Dobbins isn’t a bad target because he doesn’t have a lot of hype, and he is likely 2nd string for at least some of the season. 
 

Thinmint said it was too light, and even the guy who he just traded with offered his 2021 (typo, unless he honestly offered the guy he drafted round 1 in 2010) and said that was too light. Yes, a random 2021 1st is too light, but a top 2, maybe 3 pick is probably about what his going rate is. I’d rather have Dobbins than any RB next year. I’d rather have Dobbins than Henry easy

Oh, I see. I wasn't following the conversation well. I'd rather have Dobbins too. I was tripped up whether he meant 2010, 2020, or 2021.

Right now there is one guy I'd rather have over Dobbins from this year's class, but it's close. Journey Brown. 

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14 hours ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Has anyone seen any Derrick Henry trades in dynasty PPR lately? Curious on his value

*Henry/1st for Hopkins

*M Sanders/Scott for Henry/Shenault

*Henry/Lockett/1st for Hopkins/Jeudy/2nd

*L Jackson/Bell for Henry/J Allen

*Henry for Kamara

*Elliott/Duke Johnson/Jeudy for Henry/OBJ/Cooks

*B Scott/1st/1st for Henry/3rd

 

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4 hours ago, Johnny B. Goode said:

You really need to subscribe to DFL...

trade finder: 

2021 1st and Montgomery for Henry

1.05 and 1.16 for Henry

2021 1, 2, 3 for Henry

Sanders for Henry and Shenault

Kamara for Henry


you may think Dobbins + 2021 2nd is too light but that’s Henry’s value (picks 5 and 16 is about right too). It’s not astronomical. You’re better off holding if you are looking to cash out at a higher level than 1.03 + 2021 2nd value. As you can see above... Montgomery and a 1st, Id rather have Henry but that’s Henry’s value 

I wouldn't take any of these deals for Henry but Dobbins plus #16 would make me pause. Kamara is fair but I think Henry outlives Brees, if that matters. It may not. 

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4 hours ago, BearsFan4Life said:

He also wants Watson (I also have Mahomes and Cam) .. maybe can try Godwin and Watson for Sanders and pick 16 (2.02 in 14 team league) leaving me the main team pieces of:

Mahomes, Cam

CMC, Henry, Sanders, DFreeman (hopefully he finds a home)

Nuk, KAllen, Lockett, Dede

Kelce, Higbee

Picks 1.01, 1.07, 1.13, 2.02, 2.08

I would absolutely stay with Godwin, take CEH/Taylor at 1.01 and your WR of choice at 1.07 and one WR at 1.13/2.02 with the other Vaughn or Gibson and then absolutely dominate. Shipping Godwin leaves your WR2 spot open.

Note I'm not an Allen fan with his current situation. You don't need Sanders that bad. 

Wouldn't be a bad deal though.  

Edited by barackdhouse
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7 hours ago, barackdhouse said:

I would absolutely stay with Godwin, take CEH/Taylor at 1.01 and your WR of choice at 1.07 and one WR at 1.13/2.02 with the other Vaughn or Gibson and then absolutely dominate. Shipping Godwin leaves your WR2 spot open.

Note I'm not an Allen fan with his current situation. You don't need Sanders that bad. 

Wouldn't be a bad deal though.  

Our lineups are such that we can start different formations. 5 Flex basically but if you start 2 or 3 RB (no more than 3) you must start a TE.  I don't have to necessarily start 2 WR in our standard scoring format.  I can start 3 RB, 1WR, 1TE.

However dealing Watson only leaves me Cam backing up Mahomes.

He also is open to dealing Drake in a Watson deal where I wouldn't have to give up Godwin..might explore that as well.

Edited by BearsFan4Life
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