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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread


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33 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

I wouldn't say I'm looking that far out, but I don't put a cap on the value I place on youth. I'll take a 22 YO QB over a 25 YO QB, all else equal, for example. (Not that I'd prioritize moving a 25 or even 30 YO QB, of course.) But if Lawrence lives up to the hype he'll be a high-end performer in a year or two.

I come at this from the perspective of expected value based on historical data. Like I said, being the #1 drafted pick is a crapshoot. 

You mention the hype, an entity which can not be quantified, or hasn't been that I know about. Just based off memory, I don't recall players regarded higher in FF than warranted to have a better track record. 

Edited by cloppbeast
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Just now, cloppbeast said:

I come at this from the perspective of expected value based on historical data. Like I said, being the #1 drafted pick is a crapshoot. 

You mention the hype, an entity which can not be quantified, or hasn't been that I know about. Just based off memory I don't recall players regarded higher in FF than warranted to have a better track record. 

I was referring to his general NFL hype, not fantasy. Scouts, coaches, pundits, analytics, etc. Based on that I'm comfortable manually adjusting the sample. That's a bad practice in general, of course, but it feels more accurate than any model lumping him in with Bradford, Goff, Baker, etc. - to me.

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1 hour ago, Mark Football said:

How high of a pick would you be comfortable using if you needed QB help? 1 qb league.

I'm asking myself that same question.

If I just needed "help" (like I already have a top 5-ish) I'll probably let someone else take him.

If I needed him for a starter I'd start thinking about it around pick 6. I break from the pack a bit in regards to the importance of the position in start 1 leagues. They're not important...unless you don't have one. There aren't THAT many elite QBs.

Lots of people wish they'd have taken Herbert in the 1st about now.

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15 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

I come at this from the perspective of expected value based on historical data. Like I said, being the #1 drafted pick is a crapshoot. 

You mention the hype, an entity which can not be quantified, or hasn't been that I know about. Just based off memory, I don't recall players regarded higher in FF than warranted to have a better track record. 

Lawrence is not hyped. He's performed like a pro in just about every college game he's played in...and he's gotten better along the way.

If he fails, nobody will have seen it coming. Nobody. 

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17 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Lawrence is not hyped. He's performed like a pro in just about every college game he's played in...and he's gotten better along the way.

If he fails, nobody will have seen it coming. Nobody. 

Would be tough to agree with this more.

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1 hour ago, Concept Coop said:

I was referring to his general NFL hype, not fantasy. Scouts, coaches, pundits, analytics, etc. Based on that I'm comfortable manually adjusting the sample. That's a bad practice in general, of course, but it feels more accurate than any model lumping him in with Bradford, Goff, Baker, etc. - to me.

I get where youre coming from because almost every year a QB is taken #1. There's really no way to differentiate between them despite some clearly being better than others. 

But then again there's no way differentiate them. With what we know about the inaccuracy of scouting, I find it inconceivable to count on any rookie to outperform the top qbs out there right now. Maybe that's just me.

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I don’t like paying a first for Lawrence. The margin for error on return is so low in a 1QB league. He could ‘succeed’ and be in the muck of replaceable QB starters in the low QB1- early QB2. You are really looking for top 5 fantasy production. In a situation that will likely highly variable in the outset with new coaches/scheme/players.
 

You draft an RB and top 24 production becomes an asset, or a WR and top 36 becomes an asset. The math points you where to bet. 


Lawrence will be good, but not sure I think he is a better prospect than Watson other than height. Watson went late 2nd

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5 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

@Concept Coop used the word 'hype' to begin with. You said well it's not 'hype' because everybody thinks he's going to be good. Pretty clearly semantics right?

I guess I do.

"Hyped" typically means exaggerated.

In the case of athletes, that normally means that the on field performance has still left lingering questions. There is very little question when it comes to Lawrence. He's the most sure thing at the position since at least Andrew Luck.

But if you need me to say that's just my opinion, well, that's just my opinion.

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6 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

But if you need me to say that's just my opinion, well, that's just my opinion.

You forgot to say "man" at the end of "just my opinion." We'll forgive you this time.

I have the 4th and 5th in my league. I have Mahomes. I also have three 2nds. I am sorely tempted to take Lawrence, but won't in the end. I just don't see the fourth and fifth guys as being as sure a thing as Lawrence. I've watched the highlights of the top-rated guys according to DLF, too. Not seeing some of the love for 5'9" receivers and the like.

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Some people play in super flex or 2 QB leagues and that changes the dynamic of the value dramatically. 

In general I do not want to use 1st round picks on the QB position in start one leagues unless I think that player is going to be special in some way, like Lamar Jackson, or I think that player will be a good QB for a long time.

Its not easy to evaluate the QB position. Even the professionals get this wrong a lot. For example the Bears taking Trubisky ahead of Watson. You also had Mahomes in that draft along with Fournette, CMC, Cook, Joe Mixon, Kamara, Kareem Hunt, James Conner, Aaron Jones, 3 1st round TE and some WR pushing Watsons spot down and he was under valued by the consensus all along. That doesn't mean he is the same player as Lawrence or that he will be selected this late in 2021 rookie drafts.

I wouldn't expect him to go before pick 9 in a rookie draft but I have seen some guys reach if they really like the QB and have a need. A lot of the time where the first QB gets picked tells you where the tier of value at other positions has ended. I am going to guess Lawrence ends up being picked at 10-12 as I don't think there are enough stars to push him down further than that, but it would be pretty cool if Im wrong. 

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51 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

Some people play in super flex or 2 QB leagues and that changes the dynamic of the value dramatically.

Yeah, DLF did an early rookie draft and Lawrence and Fields were the first off the board in the draft.

I can only assume they were drafting Superflex, as they never specified. Sort of an oversight to publish without specifying. 

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1 hour ago, Andy Dufresne said:

I guess I do.

"Hyped" typically means exaggerated.

In the case of athletes, that normally means that the on field performance has still left lingering questions. There is very little question when it comes to Lawrence. He's the most sure thing at the position since at least Andrew Luck.

But if you need me to say that's just my opinion, well, that's just my opinion.

I agree, you don't know what I was trying to say.

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18 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

I guess I do.

"Hyped" typically means exaggerated.

In the case of athletes, that normally means that the on field performance has still left lingering questions. There is very little question when it comes to Lawrence. He's the most sure thing at the position since at least Andrew Luck.

But if you need me to say that's just my opinion, well, that's just my opinion.

Even in a Jets uniform?

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3 hours ago, Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:

Looking at Golladay as a potential buy low. What's a realistic price? Maybe moreso - where does he rank among guys like Chark and Ruggs? Still well ahead?

Well he was pretty overvalued beforehand based off production. He's already 27 and has two 1,000 yard season. Robert Woods, 28, also has about the same yards/game the last three seasons but Golladay is still more regarded. Dude is valued about as much as Allen Robinson, 27, who has better a history of production in much worse circumstances.

Kenny G's price still has some coming down for me to call him a buy low.

Edited by cloppbeast
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21 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Sure with one caveat - unless Gase is there. But he won't be.

Gase is so dumb. I feel sorry for whichever stupid team hires him as their OC after he gets fired.

It really grinds my gears how these morons keep getting hired and fired and re-hired and then re-fired when they should be working middle-management at some bank or pumping gas. Must be white privilege. 

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3 hours ago, Helaire-ious said:

Is Golladay + a late 2021 1st too much or not enough to give for Zeke in dynasty PPR?

Sounds even on paper, rosters notwithstanding - but not sure if Zeke is starting to get cooked or its a perfect storm with all the injuries on that offense.

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4 hours ago, Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:

Competing owner looking to upgrade at TE. I have George Kittle who's no good to him but I also have Logan Thomas. What's his value? A late third? A late third and a first round pick swap? More?

He is currently TE 8 in PPR scoring. To me that seems worth more than a 3rd round pick.

He is 29 years old though. So that should be some form of a discount.

I guess I would try for a 2nd round pick here as the base value. If you can do things like swap picks to get to that value go for it.

You could sell him for a 3rd round pick I suppose but I might rather just keep him over that.

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5 hours ago, Helaire-ious said:

Is Golladay + a late 2021 1st too much or not enough to give for Zeke in dynasty PPR?

I’m probably in the minority, but I wouldn’t give Golladay straight up for Zeke. Golladay was a top 10 WR last year, and he still has a lot of good years left.
It feels to me that Zeke is going downhill fast. We can blame it on no Dak, but honestly, Pollard looks better than Zeke a lot of the time.
I’m not certain Zeke is going to be “the man” again. I’m pretty certain Golladay will be.

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Not a value question per se, but more of a situation gauge.

Thoughts on the San Francisco RB situation next year?

Coleman and McKinnon are UFAs and out of the picture anyway for the most part. That may leave the oft-injured Mostert and Wilson as the main guys unless another body or two are brought in via FA or the draft.

With the injury situations and Shanahan's RBBC propensity, just wondering if either of those two can be had for cheap.  

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5 minutes ago, zamboni said:

Not a value question per se, but more of a situation gauge.

Thoughts on the San Francisco RB situation next year?

Coleman and McKinnon are UFAs and out of the picture anyway for the most part. That may leave the oft-injured Mostert and Wilson as the main guys unless another body or two are brought in via FA or the draft.

With the injury situations and Shanahan's RBBC propensity, just wondering if either of those two can be had for cheap.  

Mostert and WIlson are worth having sure. Not sure what the price for them is right now.

There will likely be another RB maybe 2 in the mix next season as well though. I do think eventually a RB will distance themselves from the pack, but I think that guy is just as likely to be one not on the team right now as it being one of those two.

If SF actually uses a high draft pick on a RB that would be different, seems unlikely to me that they will do that though. QB and DB have to be the priorities for them I would think right now.

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2 minutes ago, Helaire-ious said:

I want off the train

You think you can/you think you can.

Just looked at DLF's Trade Finder for you. He went for Sanders and a first in one league (overpay for him, IMO), straight up for Rodgers in another (underpaid for him, IMO), and one for a package of players including Dak and Joey Bosa in another. Burrow and Pittman went for him and A.J. Green in another back in Nov.

Other than that, not much in twelve-team start one leagues.

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1 minute ago, rockaction said:

You think you can/you think you can.

Just looked at DLF's Trade Finder for you. He went for Sanders and a first in one league (overpay for him, IMO), straight up for Rodgers in another (underpaid for him, IMO), and one for a package of players including Dak and Joey Bosa in another. Burrow and Pittman went for him and A.J. Green in another back in Nov.

Other than that, not much in twelve-team start one leagues.

The only deal there I think is remotely ok is the Sanders deal. I assume that guy had another quality QB. I need a QB in return as my others are Cousins & Tua

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2 hours ago, Zyphros said:

I wouldn't pay that for Zeke personally. Also as a Zeke owner, I wouldn't accept that deal either. Both players are in value hell right now. 

Admittedly I’ve had a LOT to drink tonight. But this doesn’t make sense to me. 
I’m going to have another drink and hope this clears up 🥃

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20 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

I could be wrong kutta but I think he is saying that he would want more than that to trade away Elliot but that he wouldn't offer as much for Elliot as the Golladay + 1st round pick.

So a classic example of having a double standard and not treating others the way you would like to be treated. Happens all the time.

The old "I'd buy for a second and sell for a first" approach. 

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2 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

I could be wrong kutta but I think he is saying that he would want more than that to trade away Elliot but that he wouldn't offer as much for Elliot as the Golladay + 1st round pick.

So a classic example of having a double standard and not treating others the way you would like to be treated. Happens all the time.

OK. I’m sober now. And it still doesn’t make sense.

He’s saying he wouldn’t offer Golladay and a first for Zeke. So if he has Golladay and a first, he’d keep them over Zeke. But then says he wouldn’t give up Zeke for that.

I still don’t get it.

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14 minutes ago, kutta said:

OK. I’m sober now. And it still doesn’t make sense.

He’s saying he wouldn’t offer Golladay and a first for Zeke. So if he has Golladay and a first, he’d keep them over Zeke. But then says he wouldn’t give up Zeke for that.

I still don’t get it.

Yeah I am likely reading it wrong somehow also.

I will let him answer.

FWIW I think Elliot is worth more than Golladay and a 1st round pick.

Edited by Biabreakable
typos
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What I mean is that if I owned Zeke (which I do in 1 league), I'd rather keep the more valuable piece which overall is the RB. In this league, I'm quitting after this year because I don't enjoy that league anymore so I don't really care enough to shop him around and see what I could get. 

If I didn't own Zeke, he wouldn't be a trade target of mine at all. If anything I'd use those pieces to trade up in the 1st because I'd put the top3 RB's in 2021 > Zeke right now. He's my RB13 in dynasty right now, not including those 3 2021 rookies. So offering a questionable WR1 and a 1st seems like too much for a guy who has not looked good. 

Both are in value hell like I mentioned, and there's a lot of questions surrounding both. Perhaps it's a little too much recency bias towards both of them, but I wouldn't be trying to trade for either. 

Overall I don't buy low on players unless they're young, and my #1 rule in dynasty is to not pay the high price for age. Golladay because of injury gets a little bit of a slide that he'll be undervalued next year for sure, but there's a lot of injuries piling up for him now. Zeke is not productive and older and not injured, I want nothing to do with him as a buy candidate.

I see Zeke's value basically either maintaining a little because Dak comes back and that offense is likely to be very good all around and he'll have good opportunity. OR he looks the same as he has this year, they work Pollard or whoever else in more and Zeke would then officially be a RB2/3. I see 1 more year of high productivity at best, and then a cliff of value drop. It'll drop quickly when he gets there and I'm getting off the ride ASAP. 

 

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I can’t decide if Zeke is a buy low or not. I sold him last season and have avoided him since.

He’s not the same guy anymore, but he can still handle all of the touches they can give him and can do everything they ask him to. And while I wouldn’t count on it happening, I think shedding 10 pounds would do wonders for him. So there is some chance he regains a step.

He won’t be cut this offseason and will likely be on the team in 2022 as well, based on his contract. That’s 2 seasons in a high volume role on an offense that is likely to be much better than it is today. The carries, targets, and goal line work will all be there. That’s certainly valuable. 

The kind of deal I could see myself making is downgrading from another 25+ YO back and getting Zeke and a sizable piece in return. Cook or Henry for Zeke and Akers or Dobbins, for example. I’m not sure if that’s doable though. I’m not interested in moving any of the young backs for him. I have him behind Robinson, Gibson and Sanders, for example.

He’s tricky.

Edited by Concept Coop
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I agree it's tricky trying to value Elliott.  It's almost as tricky as it is to rock a rhyme that's right on time.  It's tricky.

Personally, I doubt I would value him as high as his current owners do in my leagues.  He's not really a target of mine.

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4 hours ago, Zyphros said:

Both are in value hell like I mentioned, and there's a lot of questions surrounding both. Perhaps it's a little too much recency bias towards both of them, but I wouldn't be trying to trade for either. 

 

I understood you the first time and was slightly miffed people took shots at you for somehow being a backhanded trader or something. Just because you say you like the value on something doesn't mean you're obligated to make a deal. 

I can't even count how many times I've turned down an offer where I've said I think the value is fair but that I'm not interested. 

Anyway the value hell idea made perfect sense the first time.

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50 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

I understood you the first time and was slightly miffed people took shots at you for somehow being a backhanded trader or something. Just because you say you like the value on something doesn't mean you're obligated to make a deal. 

I can't even count how many times I've turned down an offer where I've said I think the value is fair but that I'm not interested. 

Anyway the value hell idea made perfect sense the first time.

Not to beat this goat any more, but the issue I had understanding his point was that it would seem to me that, at this point in time, you would prefer A (Golladay and a 1st) or B (Zeke). I understand saying they are in value hell, but we are talking about the same two pieces (A and B), and not comparing to some third piece (C).

His explanation above made sense, seeing he is leaving the league after next year. But I still contend that, all else being equal, we should be able to make a decision on A or B.

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12 team - 12 player keeper league - Full PPR - IDP

 

I missed the playoffs by 11 points (so this trade is more for next season) and am very weak at the RB position. My WRs are stacked so I made the following trade with someone who needed help at WR in the playoffs:

Received:
RB Antonio Gibson
1st round pick

Gave:
WR Davante Adams

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