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My leagues are very active on the trade market. QB is just a weird trade market. The right circumstances need to develop at the right time. When an owner develops a Mahomes-Watson sorta situation then they go shopping. As they should. That ain't the norm though.
I have become generally more pro-QB than most in 1 qb leagues, but 1.1 seems majorly excessive to me.
IMO when you take into account talent, stats, system, age and longevity of the position he plays he is the safest Dynasty asset on the market...for me, if I am doing a start-up I want that 1.1 pick to be as safe as possible and for me he is the safest...I don't think you will regret that you took him 1.1 that first year and a few years down the line I think you will be even more happy you did it.
This assumes that owners can find trading partners who value QB enough to trade something of reasonable value for one. That has not been my experience in start 1 QB leagues.
But it's much easier to confidently project that Mahomes will be top 5 every year for several years than it is to project any RB to be top 12, much less top 5 with a healthy advantage over RB12 for several years. Much more variability to RBs 2-12 every year in comparison to preseason expectations than for QBs 2-12. Or at least that is my gut reaction. Maybe I'm off base.
I agree. A few years back I took over a terrible team and drafted both Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen in the rookie draft (I was starting Case Keenum). About midway through the season I wasn't competitive and bit the bullet, trading 2 #1 picks for Mahomes.Just Win Baby said:
I don't think you're overvaluing Golladay, simply because the entire FF community is overvaluing him in my opinion.
Definitely a fair point. And like I said I am a buyer, but not at (or near) the 1.01 startup price as was presented.Just Win Baby said:
I appreciate the analysis. I have Lamar & Tua so not looking for a QB unless I'm moving Lamar in that deal. I need a TE & RB depth. I am deep at WR.
What are you sourcing for the finishes for Peyton and Rodgers? I'm not sure of an easy source to look at a glance for multiple years other than PFR, which is based on total points, 4/passing TD, 1/25 passing yards, and -2/turnover.
I agree, but that kind of supports my point. Most owners have a guy they are comfortable with and aren’t especially motivated to upgrade or add another QB. QB is almost always a buyer’s market, in my experience. I’m trying to sell high on Josh Allen in my 12 Tm league, and he’s only a major upgrade for 4 teams. Two of the owners won’t spend on QBs, so I’ve got a market of 2.Just Win Baby said:
I’m referring to current dynasty startup ADP, FTR. It’s not perfect, but it’s the best stand in for market value we have. Owners essentially rank order players as dynasty assets. That gives us an idea of how owners collectively value players in relation to each other.I need this explained to me...
What's the value in citing startup ADP when talking about dynasty? Is the assumption that "dynasty" only means about 5 years?
Because if I'm talking player values and trade scenarios in a 10+ year league, then start up values seem moot.
It's just a way to compare player values against each other. Far from perfect of course, but probably the closest we have to representing consensus market value quantitatively.I need this explained to me...
What's the value in citing startup ADP when talking about dynasty? Is the assumption that "dynasty" only means about 5 years?
Because if I'm talking player values and trade scenarios in a 10+ year league, then start up values seem moot.
Hmmm...I guess I get it. But I don't know that I'd find that useful. Seems like it assumes that all drafters have the same goal at draft time. I think, thought, that depending on which data you look at you could end up with, for example, Trevor Lawrence being rated ahead of Deshaun Watson (for a rough example). I don't think that's correct.
Yeah I was referencing their 4th year after they took over the starting role which is where Mahomes is now. So Rodgers 4th year would be 2011 (Peyton's was 2002 not 2001, though I mistakenly had it as 2003 so we were both off by a year).
Yeah it's not perfect, but the idea is that kind of stuff averages out with a bigger sample.Hmmm...I guess I get it. But I don't know that I'd find that useful. Seems like it assumes that all drafters have the same goal at draft time. I think, thought, that depending on which data you look at you could end up with, for example, Trevor Lawrence being rated ahead of Deshaun Watson (for a rough example). I don't think that's correct.
But then I'm the guy that thinks NFL front offices are relying too much on analytics and not enough on what they see so...
Lol
I'm trying to get him in a league. Is McLaurin for Watson in the ball-park in your eyes?
I'm in the same situation. Started Jared Goff and Trubisky in the playoffs.
I think McLaurin is a tough guy to gauge because of the QB situation there. He has been fine with the crap they have had and should be better but you need someone willing to take that chance.
In FFPC McLaurin is an overpay for Watson. Certainly not finding fault if you do it because I think Watson is a great buy right now, but on value in FFPC McLaurin is worth a lot more.
FFPC is 4 points per pass TD but the bigger issue is the small rosters means there are always good QBs on the wire and no one ever holds 2 QBs through the offseason (when you have to cut down to 14 players) so the top QBs are always spread out. Hence in most leagues there are typically only 1 or 2 teams that would even be potential buyers and even they can get a guy like Brady for a useless mid-round pick or pick up a Kirk Cousins type for free out of free agency.
Agree with most of what you are saying here, and maybe you did not mean it literally, but regarding the bolded comment while I'm not a fan of carrying two QB's it's what I plan to do in 3 of my 4 teams with FFPC. And really that reinforces the rest of what you are saying in that this is my plan because it's hard to find teams with need who will pay anything of decent value. While I may not love carrying two QB's I dislike idea of cutting guys like Dak and Herbert or giving them away for peanuts even less.
We don't know Dak is back and we dont know that Seahwks will throw less.
Sure you do. When the Seahawks re-dedicated themselves to the run, DK's numbers dipped.
I agree with this...love DKM and if I did own him he would be very difficult to deal but Seattle is real funky when it comes to the passing game...not sure he would have kept the pace because it was only 5 games but with Dak Lamb was 30-433-3 which comes out to 96-1,385-8....like DKM, Lamb is gonna be elite but if you also hit on that #1 you could really be in a good spot.
This is why I like doing Tier rankings more, for this exact type of situation. I have them in the same tier. Most of the time player A in a tier is worth the same as player B in a tier, it'll just depend on the player who they prefer. I prefer DK as a dynasty asset which falls in line with your question, but if I'm getting Lamb + extra's then I'm all for that move.
They also fired their notoriously conservative run-first offensive coordinator, Brian Schottenheimer.
Dak was on pace to throw for 7000 yards in those 5 games.
Carroll is more conservative than Schottenheimer. Supposedly, Carroll and Schottenheimer discussed how to improve the offense in his exit interview after the season, and it became clear that they disagreed philosophically, which led to Schottenheimer's firing. I can't imagine that, between the two of them, Schottenheimer was the one who wanted to be more conservative.
