What are you sourcing for the finishes for Peyton and Rodgers? I'm not sure of an easy source to look at a glance for multiple years other than PFR, which is based on total points, 4/passing TD, 1/25 passing yards, and -2/turnover.
- PFR QB position ranks for Peyton from 2001 (year 4) to 2010: 5, 4, 2, 2, 3, 1, 3, 6, 5, 4
- PFR QB position ranks for Rodgers from 2008 (year 4) to 2017: 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 22 (9 games played), 1, 7, 1, 29 (7 GP)
Peyton is arguably a better comparison, since his 4th season was his age 25 season, like Mahomes, and it was his 4th year starting compared to 3rd year starting for Mahomes. Rodgers' 4th season was also his age 25 season, but it was his first year as a starter, so it would have taken a much bigger leap of faith for anyone to invest such a high dynasty pick as is being discussed here in him at that time.
Either way, sign me up for this level of performance for a 2nd round startup pick, maybe a 1st rounder. IMO:
- Odds of being top 5 or better at his position for several years is much greater for Mahomes than any non-QB
- Odds of a bust or relatively short peak followed by a significant dropoff are much lower for Mahomes than any non-QB