voiceofunreason
Footballguy
If they only need so much, they pretty much have enough already. The rest is bragging rights.
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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (8 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
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InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
Wilson is perpetually overlooked. He's also super frustrating to own. This season, for instance, he carried one of my teams for the first half of the season and then largely disappeared in the second half with no real rhyme or reason as to why his stats dropped so significantly.
Helaire-ious
Footballguy
No Lamar?Zyphros said:
RC94
Footballguy
Thanks to everyone who has posted their QB rankings. Really good stuff, and I'm loving the conversations in this thread. I won't post AC forum questions, but I'm trying to think of who to target for a QB upgrade. That's really my main focus this offseason for one of my main teams.
As far as Wilson, @InDitkaWeTrust put it perfectly for me. I have him in one league and he was frustrating in the 2nd half of the season. I think SEA emphasizes the run next year so I don't think Wilson is necessarily going to be in the top 5 even for the short term. Even despite having a great 1st half of the season last year, he was still 7th in PPG for the season in the league where I have him.
As far as Wilson, @InDitkaWeTrust put it perfectly for me. I have him in one league and he was frustrating in the 2nd half of the season. I think SEA emphasizes the run next year so I don't think Wilson is necessarily going to be in the top 5 even for the short term. Even despite having a great 1st half of the season last year, he was still 7th in PPG for the season in the league where I have him.
RC94
Footballguy
When you guys are ranking Watson, are you making the assumption that he's going to be traded or are you thinking he's going to stay in HOU? He's the hardest to rank right now for me. If he goes to the NYJ or MIA, I would probably have him as my #2 or 3 QB, but if stays in HOU I would move him down a couple of spots most likely.
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Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I don't think it matters where he plays. He'd be my #1 choice of QBs to acquire - not because he's better than Mahomes, but because he's in the ballpark yet would likely require a good deal less to get.
First let me say ranking 2-7 is difficult for me. I'd have no strong argument to make for whatever order they ranked and I think it's fair to say I got 2 closer to 7 then I got 2 to 1. And I own gobs of this group, don't have a team that does not have at least one of them and to a degree it's problematic I got more then one of them on several one start QB teams.
To answer your Watson question I would just say I don't know but what I did was look at two things. Just how good Watson is as a player first and foremost, IMO the second best QB in the league and I know that's subjective and again nothing I'd argue with people about who feel differently. The other thing I did was put a lot of emphasis on weeks 12-17 when his number one WR was Brandin Cooks and he did not have ton of weaponry or running game to help him he was played really well, granted not a murders row of teams. That was something I really liked about him and Herbert last year, they lost their #1 WR's and they elevated the play of some players who seemed like spare parts.
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Tau837
Footballguy
There was a reason - Pete Carroll. Wilson had a couple bad turnover games, and Carroll put a stop to the LetRussCook offense. Carroll is under contract through 2025, so Wilson's prime is completely tied to him unless Pete has a health issue that forces him out. I am a huge Wilson fan, but that is enough for me to avoid him in dynasty.
Zyphros
Footballguy
I have no assumption about where he'd go or what his weapons would be like, I just believe he's hands down the easy choice for a long term elite QB of the future other than Mahomes. Wherever he goes, there might be a rough year if there are no weapons, but the whole idea would be to give him those options in the future. I don't worry about Watson almost at all. That's why he's my #2, Kyler I have a question about his passing ability how good it actually is, but it's definitely better than Lamar's. Allen just had either his breakout year or his career year, I'm not willing to bet on it being his career year.
Watson is just the safest for me other than Mahomes regardless of where he lands.
Helaire-ious
Footballguy
How do folks see he TB WR situation for next season; anyone moving to another team? Also, where will Beckham likely end up & is he done as a top dynasty WR?
Zyphros
Footballguy
Not saying this is likely but it would be interesting. The Patriots have plenty of cap room, OBJ's value is very likely suppressed, and Belichick loves getting players for cheap. Put together OBJ and Stafford or something like that might be of interest.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
ODB seems like the perfect player with skills not matching name recognition to be this season's choice for Ryan Pace to overpay on.
Spike
Footballguy
I have a feeling Godwin is gone. And not that he's a WR but I think in the unlikely event TB wins the Superbowl, Gronk would retire again.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Considering that Carroll fired Shotty Jr. for not being conservative enough (let that sink in) - should tell us that Russ does not really offer any real advantage over average starting QB.
Boston
Footballguy
I could see them letting Godwin walk due to the $ (although they appear to be in good cap shape but do have some big names they need to decide on) but if Brady is back I bet they bring in another quality vet...Tampa will still be playing for the now as long as Brady is there...I could see a WR like Tyler Johnson getting more work but I just don't see them going all in on the youth.
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Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I wonder who will get more money - Chris Godwin or Allen Robinson.
If Godwin walks, Robinson might be a great replacement for a couple million...less? Maybe?.
If Godwin walks, Robinson might be a great replacement for a couple million...less? Maybe?.
Helaire-ious
Footballguy
How is everyone ranking these WRs for dynasty PPR as of today? My ranking is below the list
Claypool
Mike Evans
Beckham
Godwin
AJ Brown
Keenan Allen
Hopkins
ARob
I have it:
Hopkins
AJB
Allen
ARob
Godwin
Evans
Beckham
Claypool
Claypool
Mike Evans
Beckham
Godwin
AJ Brown
Keenan Allen
Hopkins
ARob
I have it:
Hopkins
AJB
Allen
ARob
Godwin
Evans
Beckham
Claypool
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Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Godwin/Hopkins/AJ Brown
Keenan Allen/ARob
Claypool/Mike Evans
Beckham
Keenan Allen/ARob
Claypool/Mike Evans
Beckham
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Boston
Footballguy
I would guess they will be right around the same $...Godwin is 2.5 year younger but Robinson will be 28 in August so I don't think he will get dinged for his age on this contract.I wonder who will get more money - Chris Godwin or Allen Robinson.
If Godwin walks, Robinson might be a great replacement for a couple million...less? Maybe?.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
- Hopkins
- AJ Brown
- Godwin
- Keenan Allen
- ARob
- Claypool
- Mike Evans
- Beckham
I think the margin on the first 4 is pretty thin - Claypool is the wildcard as he has massive upside but the situation is a bot shaky with Ben's decline and no "future QB' in sight.
Boston
Footballguy
Good list Doc...question...do you have Godwin and Arob locked in or will their eventual landing spot change your rankings?
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
On TB it's guesswork of course, as all FA destinations would be but my guess is Godwin walks and AB steps up huge with a full off season and normal start to season. While that's a guess I feel more confident saying I don't see all 3 WR's returning mainly because I think while AB had some other options to return they were not options like when he left Pittsburgh or Oakland so he was willing to take cheap pay and the third option on a SB contender in FL and playing with Brady. He options should increase and I don't think he'll be content to be WR3 and as well as wanting more pay so can't see all 3 of them returning.
I do believe Odell is done as a top dynasty WR. After they got knocked out of the playoffs they spoke of being excited to get him back, I'm not so sure on that yet.
If it was me and I was trying to upgrade I would be less concerned with sorting out the rankings of the top 6-7 QB's and simply try and acquire the one that is least expensive.
I mentioned I own a lot of those QB's you listed, and for me I got it as a top 7, but I did not really think about it until I posted that out of my 8 dynasty teams I have at least one of them on all 8 and in total own 6 of of the 7. Lamar is only one I don't own on one of those 8 teams and that's only because he was on a Watson team and I traded him away in middle of 2019 season. So for me, someone who has no bias on this group as I own most of them, I got Mahomes a cut above but if I'm looking to buy one in the 2-7 range it's just the cheapest one. For example I had Allen at 7 and Watson at 2 and I'd pay close to nothing to turn Allen into Watson. They are in the same neighborhood and that's all I care about.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
With obvious caveat that FA and what some of these teams do at QB impacting this later:
AJB
Hopkins/Allen
Claypool
Godwin
Robinson
Evans
Odell
Man, you beat me posting by just a hair and it almost looks like I copied, I swear I did not.
Good list
barackdhouse
Footballguy
lol yepMan, you beat me posting by just a hair and it almost looks like I copied, I swear I did not.
Good list
Zyphros
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
Going like this and my reasoning:
Tier One: Claypool/AJ Brown/Godwin, in that order
Too much youth to deny. All these guys are under 25 and will give you four years of production. Claypool is probably my number one guy but for the quarterback situation. JuJu is likely leaving. Davis is likely leaving Brown. Godwin hasn't left for anywhere yet, which complicates his value. If he winds up in New England or Detroit as they're likely set to be, that's el stinko. Drop him a Tier if he does.
Tier Two: Robinson/Allen/Hopkins, in that order
Two-year window guys. None are burners. I like burners. Like I like turtles. But these guys are obviously great. I like Robinson the most here because of age, Allen as the older guy because of Herbert.
Tier Three: Evans
Evans showed in the NFCCG why he might not be the alpha one needs. Other than that, his red zone rapport with Brady is insane. He'll get plenty of dunk looks in the red zone, as was predicted this off-season. If Brady plays three more years, bump Evans up into Tier Two and leave Odell in...
Tier Four: Beckham
Beckham looked great against Dallas this year, but who didn't. Has Landry, Higgins, and DPJ to worry about for targets. Me first player. May have played his last game for Cleveland.
Tier One: Claypool/AJ Brown/Godwin, in that order
Too much youth to deny. All these guys are under 25 and will give you four years of production. Claypool is probably my number one guy but for the quarterback situation. JuJu is likely leaving. Davis is likely leaving Brown. Godwin hasn't left for anywhere yet, which complicates his value. If he winds up in New England or Detroit as they're likely set to be, that's el stinko. Drop him a Tier if he does.
Tier Two: Robinson/Allen/Hopkins, in that order
Two-year window guys. None are burners. I like burners. Like I like turtles. But these guys are obviously great. I like Robinson the most here because of age, Allen as the older guy because of Herbert.
Tier Three: Evans
Evans showed in the NFCCG why he might not be the alpha one needs. Other than that, his red zone rapport with Brady is insane. He'll get plenty of dunk looks in the red zone, as was predicted this off-season. If Brady plays three more years, bump Evans up into Tier Two and leave Odell in...
Tier Four: Beckham
Beckham looked great against Dallas this year, but who didn't. Has Landry, Higgins, and DPJ to worry about for targets. Me first player. May have played his last game for Cleveland.
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InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
Not to argue your point too much (because I think it's fairly accurate), but Wilson looked visibly different from the first 8 weeks to the last 8. His decision making was a little off, he wasn't running like he normally does, and at times threw what appeared to be lazy passes. I can't place all that blame on Carroll. I kept waiting to hear of some kind of injury for Russ those last games of the season.
Tau837
Footballguy
Agree Wilson bears some blame. The worrisome thing is that Caroll reportedly fired Schottenheimer because he did not agree with Carroll's vision for getting back to more emphasis on the running game being the right path forward for the offense. In other words, Carroll seemingly fired him for not being conservative enough. Brian Schottenheimer...
rockaction
Footballguy
Running the football and stout defense wins championships. Who'd have thought a Truther would be a dinosaur, too?
Hwarf.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Between Beckham, Landry, and Higgins I think Beckham is the most likely to be a Brown in '21.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
How are people feeling about Josh Jacob's? Just saw him traded for pick 5
That’s about right. Without seeing spots I’d take Jacobs but would probably take the 1.04 over him.
MAC_32
Footballguy
He is likely a better bet in 2021 than any RB one would draft #5. So if one is in a window, but short a RB I understand considering such a move. I would not do it though. And if I did I would exhaust my alternatives first.ghostguy123 said:
Nothing matters more in our game than volume, but sustained volume depends on production and Jacobs has not cleared that bar. If '22 does not go better then I expect the Raiders to decline his option and draft his eventual replacement.
Pwingles
Footballguy
Single qb I assume?If so I feel like thats right about where I would sell him also. If i was a competing team, and currently held my late 1st and had no RB depth, then maybe in that specific scenario I would hold here. But im not a huge jacobs fan. He is a meh talent getting by on TDsghostguy123 said:
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Helaire-ious
Footballguy
I would give a late 1st if I needed a RB, but no way the 1.05ghostguy123 said:
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I'm buying at that price. He's still really young, the same age as Harris and Etienne. And I still like the talent. The efficiency that wasn't there this season was there the prior. He's capable of it. If he gets back to that, he greatly outperforms this kind of investment. If he doesn't, the volume alone should repay it, if he stays healthy. I'd be really excited about landing him for that.ghostguy123 said:
I think Jacobs for 5 is even like most are saying but if this is FFPC you also got to factor in cost of losing roster spot by picking up Jacobs now.
If you feel like you need a RB and don't want to risk not having a viable RB at 5 due to earlier run on them I can see why this makes sense. Possibly some other RB lands so awesome he moves up, usually happens, but in FFPC not hard to see current consensus top 3 gone by pick 5.
But this question really splits off into another thought/strategy. Unless you are getting a great deal, or obtaining someone you badly covet before someone else beats you to the punch if a trade is remotely even right now between picks and players I'd hang onto the picks, especially if the player I'm picking up is a RB. Picks are just more flexible assets, RB's can lose value with significant RB addition more then any position and most of with premium pick the value and hype just builds. If 5 buys you Jacobs today, I see little reason why he won't as we get closer to the drafts.
If you feel like you need a RB and don't want to risk not having a viable RB at 5 due to earlier run on them I can see why this makes sense. Possibly some other RB lands so awesome he moves up, usually happens, but in FFPC not hard to see current consensus top 3 gone by pick 5.
But this question really splits off into another thought/strategy. Unless you are getting a great deal, or obtaining someone you badly covet before someone else beats you to the punch if a trade is remotely even right now between picks and players I'd hang onto the picks, especially if the player I'm picking up is a RB. Picks are just more flexible assets, RB's can lose value with significant RB addition more then any position and most of with premium pick the value and hype just builds. If 5 buys you Jacobs today, I see little reason why he won't as we get closer to the drafts.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Chalk me up as a "No" for giving the 1.5 for Jacobs.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Something to consider - let's set a bar at 80 yards and 4.5 ypc. How many games in 2019 did he clear that bar? 5. Against who? 4 opponents in the bottom 10 in fantasy points/game against opposing RB's - KC x2, GB, and CIN. His other was against Chicago when Akiem Hicks was injured in the first quarter. While it doesn't meet that arbitrary criteria we should probably also give him credit for the 28-120-2 performance against Detroit, but they allowed the most fantasy points per game in 2019.
Just to reiterate, I wouldn't read too much into that for 2021 purposes. RB's that perform well against bad competition and get a lot of touches are assets in our game. I don't think a repeat of 2019 and 2020 will be enough for him to get his option exercised and prevent competition being brought in '22. Am I going to pass up on a Kyle Pitts to gamble that he takes the necessary step? Nope.
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