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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread


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10 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Yeah I tried moving him for 1.01 in an FFPC league (to a team that is not rebuilding or anything) and he countered with 1.07/Hopkins for 1.01 😮

 

There is a dichotomy (or is it schizophrenia?) about high draft picks, isn't there?

Rebuilding or not, I wouldn't want to pay the 1.1 for Hopkins. 

But at the same time, I don't think Harris or Chase are more valuable than Hopkins.

:shrug:

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4 hours ago, Blick said:

I’d probably just put that guy on my “do not trade with” list. 

Why?  Seems like other owners with differing values on players are exactly who you should be looking to trade with. 

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7 hours ago, jabarony said:

Why?  Seems like other owners with differing values on players are exactly who you should be looking to trade with. 

Because I don’t have the energy to negotiate with someone when their opening offer is 1.06/Hopkins for 1.01. 

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29 minutes ago, Blick said:

Because I don’t have the energy to negotiate with someone when their opening offer is 1.06/Hopkins for 1.01. 

I can see that. He's already putting you in sort of a losing situation if you're thinking about reaching a center point between the two. That's a lot to ask.

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I have Nick Chubb on one championship and two rebuilding Zealots leagues. I think he's a better back than Dalvin Cook and might even think he's the best back in the league.

But it appears I'm on an island with that. In the rebuilding leagues I know I wouldn't get what I'd expect to in ac trade return - a couple high picks/players.

Do people really fear Kareem Hunt stealing touches that much? I just think Hunt is inordinately productive for a #2 back and doesn't really take anything from Chubb.

So what is he worth in trade?

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36 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

I have Nick Chubb on one championship and two rebuilding Zealots leagues. I think he's a better back than Dalvin Cook and might even think he's the best back in the league.

But it appears I'm on an island with that. In the rebuilding leagues I know I wouldn't get what I'd expect to in ac trade return - a couple high picks/players.

Do people really fear Kareem Hunt stealing touches that much? I just think Hunt is inordinately productive for a #2 back and doesn't really take anything from Chubb.

So what is he worth in trade?

I think Chubb is the better runner, probably the best in the league. But he's never going to catch a lot of balls so that caps his upside.

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10 hours ago, jabarony said:

Why?  Seems like other owners with differing values on players are exactly who you should be looking to trade with. 

99% of the time they don't have different values, they're just looking to rob somebody. Not worth the energy for me to deal with people like that. 

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Just now, voiceofunreason said:

99% of the time they don't have different values, they're just looking to rob somebody. Not worth the energy for me to deal with people like that. 

Or they initiate trade talks but make you drive the process.

Team 1: "I'm willing to trade away this."

Team 2: "Okay, how about this." 

Team 1: "No." (no counter)

Team 2: "Okay, how about THIS?" 

Team 1: "No." (no counter)

Dude, I'm not going to send you twenty seven offers until I thread the needle you've set up. I've given you an idea of what I'm willing to offer, now tell me what you're looking for!

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1 hour ago, Andy Dufresne said:

I have Nick Chubb on one championship and two rebuilding Zealots leagues. I think he's a better back than Dalvin Cook and might even think he's the best back in the league.

But it appears I'm on an island with that. In the rebuilding leagues I know I wouldn't get what I'd expect to in ac trade return - a couple high picks/players.

Do people really fear Kareem Hunt stealing touches that much? I just think Hunt is inordinately productive for a #2 back and doesn't really take anything from Chubb.

So what is he worth in trade?

Chubb's 25, so he's beginning the downswing of his career, really. He's still probably worth the 1.01+ in this draft, though as you said upthread, people are psychotic in their dichotomy about that. He's the best pure runner in the league, alongside Dobbins, in my opinion. But he has Hunt and his own contributions in the passing game to worry about. I don't know what that means, but that's where I've got him.

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17 hours ago, menobrown said:

He'll be 29, at a position other then QB in one start QB leagues is the deepest in fantasy and getting deeper. He's at an age that basically no matter what kind of season he realistically could put up he's an annually declining asset. If you are paying for him now at his age I'd have to think it only makes sense if you are in win now mode and as good as he was last year it was not some type of 2019 Thomas or Davante Adams stuff from last year. Typically 18-19 PPG WR's are not changing the dynamic of a league.

It seems to me the best time to move him would be in-season to a team that is contending but believes that rock solid WR1 is what they lack. Right now most people see WR's all over and think they can get what they need, some will, but generally someone will need someone like Hopkins to help them think they can get over the hump. Obvious problem with this is you don't get a pick until 2022  and if you are picking up another teams picks that views them as a contender, and not another pick they own, that's not very exciting about cashing him out for a later first.

I'd for sure value 1.2 over him now but I'd not be afraid to hold him into the season either if I did not get what I wanted. I think of a league I was in last year and this guy did a masterful job with his team. He won the league in 2019, then about a week or two into the season just started trading away a chunk of his team. Got a bunch of 2021 firsts and some good young players, I hate to say Justin Jefferson from me. Then during the season he started buying up players like J Taylor and Dobbins with the 2021 picks after they got off to a slow start. I bring this up to point out that just if getting a good 2021 pick for Hopkins is your goal, even if you hold him into the season, it just might mean you can buy some of the 2021 players you like a little cheaper if they don't start out with a bang.

I'm with you on Hopkins. Adding to your astute evaluation, I think his situation dictates a little more downgrade. Kyler will get his rushing TDs, most of which will come from red zone offense. If he were playing with more of a pocket passer, I'd hold him. As is, I'm actively pursuing trades. 

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Just now, Andy Dufresne said:

I don't mind FFPC stuff in here.

Of course, I wouldn't mind Assistant Coach questions in here either so....

Wrong thread? I think we were just talking about this is another thread. If it's not the wrong thread, count me among those who don't mind FFPC in here, either. Some of our better posters play it, and it's good to hear. Plus, you sort of know the deal after a while of reading it and it becomes interesting. I might give it a whirl in a few years. Maybe.

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2 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Wrong thread? I think we were just talking about this is another thread. If it's not the wrong thread, count me among those who don't mind FFPC in here, either. Some of our better posters play it, and it's good to hear. Plus, you sort of know the deal after a while of reading it and it becomes interesting. I might give it a whirl in a few years. Maybe.

Oops. Yeah, wrong thread. Asst Coach stuff should be allowed in the Dynasty Trade thread.

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1 hour ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Or they initiate trade talks but make you drive the process.

Team 1: "I'm willing to trade away this."

Team 2: "Okay, how about this." 

Team 1: "No." (no counter)

Team 2: "Okay, how about THIS?" 

Team 1: "No." (no counter)

Dude, I'm not going to send you twenty seven offers until I thread the needle you've set up. I've given you an idea of what I'm willing to offer, now tell me what you're looking for!

drives me up the wall

11 hours ago, jabarony said:

Why?  Seems like other owners with differing values on players are exactly who you should be looking to trade with. 

Only if that difference is in your favor. If it isn't it is just laborious, tedious and ultimately rarely fruitful to try and get anywhere with. I'll say this, though. Those owners who you can't seem to get anything done with because you're too far apart on prices *are* the ones that eventually will surprise you because they hate some player that you like. So I do agree you should at least keep them on your radar. But it is almost impossible to know when that might happen. And if they happen to be a "must win all trades" kind of person then forget about it.

3 hours ago, Blick said:

Because I don’t have the energy to negotiate with someone when their opening offer is 1.06/Hopkins for 1.01. 

What if it was Hopkins/1.06 for 1.01 plus a future 1st (or some equivalent level of value)? Is that too big of negotiation bump to warrant a counter (if not an official counter in the system, a feeler question to the owner)? 

Reason I ask is because I more or less agree with what you're saying. When you don't feel like working with someone, you don't necessarily need to explain why to them or us. But I think sometimes what one owner would consider a non-starter offer, another would turn into a counter negotiation that ends up working. Dude may have been lowballing you (he was), but he may be willing to pay quite a bit more if pushed. I'm *not* saying that applies here, just food for thought.

1 hour ago, voiceofunreason said:

99% of the time they don't have different values, they're just looking to rob somebody. Not worth the energy for me to deal with people like that. 

Yeah I'm not above robbery, but it just isn't something I'm looking for. If it happens it happens. I am sooooo willing to let myself get robbed, or to make my partner think he is robbing me, if I get a deal that I think helps my team. And I have often made deals that other owners have complained to me about in terms of having greatly helped my opponent. Yet my teams keep improving and winning. Yeah there are some owners that will not do a trade, and have even said so, unless they think they are winning it.

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2 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Do people really fear Kareem Hunt stealing touches that much?

 

 

1 hour ago, Andy Dufresne said:

He's not McCaffrey, but he caught 36 in 2019. That's not nothing. :shrug:

 

That would be exhibit A to argue the answer to your question above was a resounding yes.

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4 hours ago, Blick said:

Because I don’t have the energy to negotiate with someone when their opening offer is 1.06/Hopkins for 1.01. 

Well for the record it was 1.07 😁

 

And I would consider trading Hopkins plus 1.07 for 1.01 in the right situation - for instance if I love the rookie at 1.01 and I'm relatively indifferent between what's there at 1.07 and my 2nd round pick ( or if i have extra picks etc.).

 

Long winded way of saying it didn't seem so bad to me and I could work with that guy. 

 

 

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25 minutes ago, jabarony said:

Well for the record it was 1.07 😁

 

And I would consider trading Hopkins plus 1.07 for 1.01 in the right situation - for instance if I love the rookie at 1.01 and I'm relatively indifferent between what's there at 1.07 and my 2nd round pick ( or if i have extra picks etc.).

 

Long winded way of saying it didn't seem so bad to me and I could work with that guy. 

 

 

I think Hopkins and the seven pick is a legit offer for najee. In comparison i was offered the one pick for my aiyuk diontae and the ten pick. I don’t have much depth at wr besides those two and mclaurin and Dj Moore. We Start two to four wrs also. So makes it hard for me to pull the trigger since I won’t be picking again until pick thirty. 

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I’m also going to try to move Hopkins when my league unlocks rosters. I think he’s still got plenty of value to a win-now team. He’s about to turn 29 (June) which makes him less attractive long-term, but for a WR-needy team he’s still got value. 

I do think he’s got a chance to improve on his 2020 numbers after the year of experience working with Murray & the new offense. He hardly looks like he lost a step. 

I’m probably looking for players more than picks, but if I were offered a top 5 pick for him I’d have a hard time saying no. 

I’ll put him on the block and see what happens. 🤷🏼‍♂️

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Just now, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I’m also going to try to move Hopkins when my league unlocks rosters. I think he’s still got plenty of value to a win-now team. He’s about to turn 29 (June) which makes him less attractive long-term, but for a WR-needy team he’s still got value. 

I do think he’s got a chance to improve on his 2020 numbers after the year of experience working with Murray & the new offense. He hardly looks like he lost a step. 

I’m probably looking for players more than picks, but if I were offered a top 5 pick for him I’d have a hard time saying no. 

I’ll put him on the block and see what happens. 🤷🏼‍♂️

You should get more than a top five pick for him. He's above the 1.01 right now.

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5 minutes ago, bmsarvis said:

I think Hopkins and the seven pick is a legit offer for najee.

I'm glad you said this as I did not think it was that egregious either, more IMO what I would describe as a  little rich to pay for 1.1 then something really awful. I personally think a later first with Hopkins is just about right but at the moment I have a tier cutoff at 7 and while I know that may not hold I'm going to hold that line until it's not the case.

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Just now, barackdhouse said:

In the same FFPC SF I just posted about in the trades thread as having 33 trades since Jan 1st. I just turned down an offer of my Mahomes for his Mayfield, two 2022 1sts, 2.10

FWIW

 

Oh man he just upped it to include a future 2nd and 3.06. He is the one I sold the package to move up to 1.03 for. I think he thought he was offering me something outlandish that I wouldn't accept, and then I did and now he doesn't have 1.03 anymore and is panicking. 

But Mayfield, two 1sts, two 2nds and a 3rd is a haul. My biggest concern right now is how do I turn him down without being a jerk about it.

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Some men you just can't reach...so we get what we had here last week. Well, that's the way he wants it, that's the way he gets it.

I'm not sure you could get me to part with Mahomes for Mayfield and two 1sts in a 1QB league.

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5 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

I have Nick Chubb on one championship and two rebuilding Zealots leagues. I think he's a better back than Dalvin Cook and might even think he's the best back in the league.

But it appears I'm on an island with that. In the rebuilding leagues I know I wouldn't get what I'd expect to in ac trade return - a couple high picks/players.

Do people really fear Kareem Hunt stealing touches that much? I just think Hunt is inordinately productive for a #2 back and doesn't really take anything from Chubb.

So what is he worth in trade?

Being the best NFL RB (which i think Chubb is in the conversation for) is different than being the best FF RB.  Chubb's usage is what holds him back for FF purposes.  He loses TD's and 3 down work which is a great benefit to the Browns for keeping him healthy and fresh.  It just doesn't help his fantasy outlook.

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26 minutes ago, IHEARTFF said:

I think you can just reply with your rejection saying that the offer is plenty fair, but you will not trade Mahomes for anything. 

Yeah I rejected without a note but sent a different small offer for later draft picks swaps and mentioned it again. I wouldn't have made a big deal to get to 1.03 to take my team in a completely different direction after that.

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3 minutes ago, Gally said:

Being the best NFL RB (which i think Chubb is in the conversation for) is different than being the best FF RB.  Chubb's usage is what holds him back for FF purposes.  He loses TD's and 3 down work which is a great benefit to the Browns for keeping him healthy and fresh.  It just doesn't help his fantasy outlook.

Except that he scored the 4th most TDs while missing four games. And was still top 15 in carries.

I guess I'm content with keeping him on a roster. I think people analyze him all wrong. 

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1 hour ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Except that he scored the 4th most TDs while missing four games. And was still top 15 in carries.

I guess I'm content with keeping him on a roster. I think people analyze him all wrong. 

I agree that he is still a top 12ish RB and have no problem with that production.  The perception of his production is what limits his return value in trade scenarios, and he would be in contention for RB1 overall if Hunt wasn't there.

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8 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

I have Nick Chubb on one championship and two rebuilding Zealots leagues. I think he's a better back than Dalvin Cook and might even think he's the best back in the league.

But it appears I'm on an island with that. In the rebuilding leagues I know I wouldn't get what I'd expect to in ac trade return - a couple high picks/players.

Do people really fear Kareem Hunt stealing touches that much? I just think Hunt is inordinately productive for a #2 back and doesn't really take anything from Chubb.

So what is he worth in trade?

Hunt is not a threat. He's there to keep Chubb fresh. I'm riding him through '21 and hope his '22 doesn't take his value. I won't think about moving him til that time. 

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4 hours ago, barackdhouse said:

In the same FFPC SF I just posted about in the trades thread as having 33 trades since Jan 1st. I just turned down an offer of my Mahomes for his Mayfield, two 2022 1sts, 2.10

FWIW

 

As a Mahomes owner in a superflex league he is borderline untouchable, unless an offer completely knocked my socks off. I feel like anyone trading me for Mahomes needs to overpay. Barring injury, he is the most valuable Dynasty asset for at least the foreseeable future.

That said, I have been contemplating offering him up to see what offers come in. I know the Watson owner in my league covets him & has several assets I’d like to acquire… That’s something I would probably consider if I could work it to my advantage for Watson plus a running back. 

i’ve got two straight third place finishes so if I can turn Hopkins and Mahomes into three players it might put me over the top. If I can get younger in the process, I’d call that a win.

Watson, Higgins, CEH For Hopkins & Mahomes, maybe a pick? 

I know that owner pretty well, so it might be do-able. IMO the drop-off from Mahomes to Watson is largely psychological. Of course there’s risk that Watson goes to a terrible team, or holds out...

Maybe I’m thinking wishfully. Would that trade offer be considered offensively low? 

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5 hours ago, barackdhouse said:

I'm not trying to drive the price up. He is genuinely untouchable for me in SF. I'm defending champ and just paid a haul to move to 1.03 to take a top rookie RB, not a QB.

yep

48 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

As a Mahomes owner in a superflex league he is borderline untouchable, unless an offer completely knocked my socks off. I feel like anyone trading me for Mahomes needs to overpay. Barring injury, he is the most valuable Dynasty asset for at least the foreseeable future.

I know that owner pretty well, so it might be do-able. IMO the drop-off from Mahomes to Watson is largely psychological. Of course there’s risk that Watson goes to a terrible team, or holds out...

Yeah I don't know. I think there are some other elite options at QB that would probably get me to consider something like this. I think I agree the dropoff is psychological and worth exploring. But for me, in addition to being capable of things I've never seen anyone else do before, Mahomes also has Hill and Kelce for at least a few more years and KC is bound to continue to bring in playmakers throughout his career. I still think CEH is a stud. The upside of that offense serves as a tiebreaker of it's own, even though there isn't a tie in the first place. But I do think chunking him out for pieces makes sense if you aren't in a position to win now. I also think people underestimate how good their teams can be ~8 months from now.

Edited by barackdhouse
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20 hours ago, menobrown said:

I'm glad you said this as I did not think it was that egregious either, more IMO what I would describe as a  little rich to pay for 1.1 then something really awful. I personally think a later first with Hopkins is just about right but at the moment I have a tier cutoff at 7 and while I know that may not hold I'm going to hold that line until it's not the case.

I have tier 1 stopping at pick for tier ends at pick 7 pick 8 starts a very long and unorganized third tier for me at this point. 

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17 hours ago, Born to Run said:

I have Dalvin and Chubb in a zealots league. Chubb looks to be the slightly superior talent, but Dalvin is the man for Minn. Chubb is only 4 months younger, but much less wear. I will be looking to trade Dalvin the year he turns 29.

Of course, his value then will be a fraction of what it is today, possibly zero.

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On 2/20/2021 at 7:38 AM, Andy Dufresne said:

I have Nick Chubb on one championship and two rebuilding Zealots leagues. I think he's a better back than Dalvin Cook and might even think he's the best back in the league.

But it appears I'm on an island with that. In the rebuilding leagues I know I wouldn't get what I'd expect to in ac trade return - a couple high picks/players.

Do people really fear Kareem Hunt stealing touches that much? I just think Hunt is inordinately productive for a #2 back and doesn't really take anything from Chubb.

So what is he worth in trade?

I doubt you're on an island in thinking Chubb is a better player than Cook.  I also doubt you're on an island in thinking that Chubb may be the best back in the league.

The problem though is yes, Hunt, and how it relates to fantasy.

The reality is that aside from Hunt being there, everything broke PERFECTLY for Chubb this year and he was still only RB8 in ppg for fantasy.  They had possibly the best run blocking O-line in the league.  More importantly this was like the one season Cleveland has every 20 years where they actually stayed competitive in games all year and could stick to the run.

If Cleveland regresses next year, as a huge percentage of these borderline playoff teams do every year, Chubb is in kind of a bad spot.  He relies on the team staying competitive because when they get behind Hunt gets most of the garbage time passing work.  It would be one thing if Chubb were a standout CMC type stud RB1 when things are clicking in Cleveland.  But even in that perfect scenario he was still only RB8 in ppg and is now entering his age 26 season with a career best finish of RB8 in ppg.

Chubb has now played two seasons with Hunt (half of last year, and then this year).  When everything was clicking perfectly in Chubb's favor in Cleveland he was RB8 in ppg.  When Cleveland was playing more like the Cleveland we expect (last year) Chubb was RB23 in PPG in the 8 games Hunt played.

Awesome talent and much like several other great RBs before him it's painful to watch his FF value never match up to his real world value, but the reality is he's basically been a guy who is a mid/low FF RB1 when Cleveland is good and a mid RB2 when Cleveland is bad, and I'm not keen on predicting that Cleveland will be consistently good going forward.  Like I said above it would be one thing if he were playing a like a top 3 overall RB when things are breaking right but even in that scenario Hunt still gets too much work for him finish as a top 5 RB in ppg.

He is RB7 in ADP and that doesn't seem underrated to me for a guy that is entering his age 26 season and has never even finished that high in fantasy scoring.  Realistically despite his talent it is probably a bit much for a guy that, short of a Hunt injury, likely has an UPSIDE of finishing the RB7 range in ppg and a downside of much lower if Cleveland starts having to abandon the run in the 2nd quarter like they've had to in recent years.

Though I totally get the allure in wanting to own Chubb.  He is hella fun to watch run.

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1 hour ago, DropKick said:

Of course, his value then will be a fraction of what it is today, possibly zero.

Yes, you know the old saying, "it's better to trade a player a year too early, than a year too late.".  Twenty-nine may be a year too late.

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9 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Yes, you know the old saying, "it's better to trade a player a year too early, than a year too late.".  Twenty-nine may be a year too late.

The Bill Walsh school of football. Missed by a year on Montana, but it was the right move. 

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24 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Yes, you know the old saying, "it's better to trade a player a year too early, than a year too late.".  Twenty-nine may be a year too late.

If you are waiting until a RB is 29 to move him you are more then a year to late.

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2 minutes ago, menobrown said:

If you are waiting until a RB is 29 to move him you are more then a year to late.

I’ve sent out feelers to move Henry. Based on responses, I’ll probably just keep him and hope to get a few more years from him.  Nothing close to where I value him. 

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15 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

I agree......most of the time.  The way things are looking lately, 26 is the new 30.

Someone else mentioned something like this a few weeks but I'm personally not much evidence of this with RB's.

I  just went on a search and used this site's feature to sort out RB's aged 29 years or older who had 200 fantasy points, and I wish I had a better way to search then standard but all I got. This was from last 5.

3 RB's aged 29 or older scored 200 non-PPR points in last 5 years and they all did it once and not the names you'd think. Mark Ingram and Blount at 30, McCoy at 29. I don't play non-PPR, is 200 to hefty of a goal? I did not think so since we are talking upper echelon guys but I was not trying to use some arbitrary number to prove a point or some type of cut off to eliminate players.

The previous 5 years were actually better which does not suggest, to me anyway, that RB's are actually improving with age but worse because 4 RB's in the previous  years, 2011-2015 went over 200 points.Those 4 were Peterson at 30 with Michael Turner, Matt Forte and Justin Forte at 29.

Again I'm seeing no signs of RB's aging better and most even less signs of a RB carrying a big load early in their careers still being viable.

And I just started digging further and frankly makes me want to say if you are holding a RB past 26 you need to move. Past 5 seasons only 6  RB's older then 26 scored 200 or more non-PPR fantasy points, two did it twice.

As the 2017 draft class ages they figure to add to this a little but it's not real encouraging looking to me holding on to these RB's past 25. Get a few years, recycle is what I try and do.

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What is the value of moving a RB one year too late? 
         Perhaps something like going from a Hindery value of 25-30 down to something like 8-14? So losing between 11-22, call it a future 1st. This is arbitrary and just a thought experiment so bear with me. It could be a bigger loss than that.


What is the value of moving a RB one year too early?
         Perhaps something like going from 30 to 25? Gaining about 5? Or maybe close to a future 2nd?

What is the difference in magnitude between the two answers? In an extremely rough way, maybe the difference between losing a 1st rounder and gaining a 2nd rounder. 

Now.

Are we trying to gain value or win championships? Serious question because neither scenario above is ideal. Ideal is to sell at the perfect time. Not too early or too late. I think most people would agree we're never likely to hit that mark. But here is the thing. If you're gonna say there is a world in which you sold a player too early, by definition that suggests they held value after you sold them. Why would that be? Purely due to the market perception? Or is it based on on field performance that might actually help your team win? I think I might rather ride them one more time and take that paper loss. In some situations. 

A reminder that we're talking about minimizing losses, not maximizing profits. I'm just not sure that holding a stud past their prime is actually the better play (unless you get a square deal). Selling too early implies that it's hurting my chances to win boxscores in the present, whereas selling too late implies my roster won't look as sexy on paper later, and also assumes I don't do anything further about it. 

I'm contrarian like a mutha.

 

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