Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
Thanks for the input. I really appreciate it. I don't necessarily need him and I too worry about him with Etienne playing a similar role.
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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (10 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
I would definitely give a mid 2nd for Lavishka. He proved he belongs on an NFL field. Beast with the ball in his hands. They will find ways to continue to get him the ball ETN or not.... what do you all think you can draft with that mid 3rd?? Nothing as good as Lavishka IMO
Seeing the replies on shenault he seems to be a definite hold. I actually think this regime is better for him than the last. We’ll see if the production happens. No way I’m trading for a third rounded. If i could’ve had waddle or Marshall’s draft slot for him this year I would of sent em packing but outside of sermon who sometimes falls I don’t see anyone else I’d rather have that badly.
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
I was at about a late second, but in IDP leagues you can get a good player with a mid-third. Considering two out my three dynasty leagues are IDP, this colors my picture about what a pick is worth. I certainly think in offense-only that a mid-third is a reach they'll ever see the field in a meaningful way like Shenault already has. So perhaps I need to think a little harder when I answer in the future about draft picks.
I wouldn’t take a 2nd for Laviska. I understand it’s like taking crazy pills with Urban, but Shenault is the hybrid WR/RB that’s too good a WR to smash into the line. I know he will be misused just as I know he has the skill set to thrive. This is a train wreck I’m seeing through with a front row seat
Lehigh98
Footballguy
Update: The guy I had traded Shenault to on 5/5 just sent me a trade offer this morning, including Shenault.
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
Shoutout to Hindery in his monthly trade value column here, giving reference to the Shark Pool and our ranking(s) of @Zyphros list here of WRs. And I love Hindery's take on how to approach WR valuations in this article.
https://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=2021-dynasty-trade-value-chart-june
"Now that we have determined what level of production truly makes a difference at the wide receiver position, let’s frame this valuation discussion through the lens of a wide receiver’s chances of developing into a guy who really matters for our fantasy teams. It is not just a simple calculation of taking the middle of Player X’s range of outcomes versus the middle of Player Y’s range of outcomes. We want to ignore the projections. Instead, we are most interested in the odds that we can get elite production from Player X Yersus the same odds for Player Y. The sole focus should be on upside with the floor serving as more of a tie-breaker."
https://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=2021-dynasty-trade-value-chart-june
"Now that we have determined what level of production truly makes a difference at the wide receiver position, let’s frame this valuation discussion through the lens of a wide receiver’s chances of developing into a guy who really matters for our fantasy teams. It is not just a simple calculation of taking the middle of Player X’s range of outcomes versus the middle of Player Y’s range of outcomes. We want to ignore the projections. Instead, we are most interested in the odds that we can get elite production from Player X Yersus the same odds for Player Y. The sole focus should be on upside with the floor serving as more of a tie-breaker."
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I think Chark is a perfect example where the range of outcomes has narrowed, as Hindery is arguing here. I love his chances to be a later breakout, but I also strongly agree with the concept that the range is much narrower. "Potential" always has a certain shine to it and in one more year I would say Chark is either dramatically more valuable or is relegated to a roster clogger that is nearly untradeable. And that is why Waddle is probably ranked higher. Still a wider range of possibilities and more time to grow into it. The 2nd year guys each have a lot going for them but some big questions.
kutta
Footballguy
I agree with this 100%. I wrote something a few years ago arguing that projections were not a very meaningful way to rank players. We really want to focus on who has a chance to be a true stud and difference maker. Take 3 guys ranked very near each other:
Will Fuller, Courtland Sutton, and Tyler Boyd
Who of those three has the best chance to be a top 10 WR? I'd argue Sutton because he has the chance to be the true alpha there in Denver. There's no way Boyd will be a top 10 WR (injuries aside). But their projections are right next to each other, all of them being ranked 30, 31, and 32 by some sites.
The chances of any of these guys being top 10 isn't very big. But if there's a BIGGER chance one can do it than the other, we should be taking that into account, and pure guesses at stats just don't take that into account.
It's almost like we need an "I'm sure" factor. The reason Mahomes is so valuable is not because we project him to score X number of fantasy points. It's because we are really sure he will do it. Same with Davante Adams and CMC (again, special circumstances aside). And that same factor should apply down the line to the lower tier players too.
wgoldsph
Footballguy
I've seen a lot of 3rds and late 2nds here, and I've got to ask... Isn't that what he was drafted at least year? Maybe higher? Why are people looking to sell low so early? He didn't have a bad rookie season and showed he had some YAC chops with terrible qb play. Sure he might not go off with this offense, but he's at least a hold on your ts.
I've seen the "Confidence Factor" applied for weekly projections and have found it very useful, and think a similar concept could be applied for the season long projections. Basically an attempt to try and quantify the various range of outcomes for players to try and better identify who are the "safe floor, moderate ceiling" guys compared to the "volatile high floor, low ceiling" types and all of the guys in between. I know a lot of times this may be factored in by the various prognosticators, it's just not necessarily defined/called out.
As you said, the projections for the 3 receivers you mentioned above are very close, but they are not created equally.
wgoldsph
Footballguy
When going into the Boyd/Sutton debate (I'm cutting out Fuller because I consider him not being injured last year not the norm) you have to consider that Boyd is high floor and Sutton is high ceiling. Even with the improvements to the bengals o, Boyd is still a solid weekly ppr wr2/3, while the entire den offense might not have a wr3 in the bunch if they're unable to generate any scoring.
Can Sutton end up as a top 10? Yes. Can he also end up with a catch for seven yards for five or four weeks during the season? Also yes. Is that worth more than banking on a handful of catches every week from Boyd at the same ADP? Depends on your roster and how you play.
kutta
Footballguy
Right. But we don't get all that from a projections that lists Boyd at 31 and Sutton at 32 with basically identical projected stats.
wgoldsph
Footballguy
I feel like that's the difference between paid for and free content. Paid for content should be giving you that kind of information in small blurb next to the ranking, instead of you having to figure it out on your own. But I don't pay for any content.
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Pwingles
Footballguy
1 qb, TE premium PPR
1.05 or 1.06 + 1.12?
Seems like an easy accept, but for me the drop off after 5 is dramatic
Harris, Chase, Pitts, ETN, Javonte in some order is how I would have it.
more than likely choosing between ETN and Javonte there, so 1 of them or Devonta/Waddle and something like Elijah Moore/Terrace Marshall/ QB? Thoughts?
1.05 or 1.06 + 1.12?
Seems like an easy accept, but for me the drop off after 5 is dramatic
Harris, Chase, Pitts, ETN, Javonte in some order is how I would have it.
more than likely choosing between ETN and Javonte there, so 1 of them or Devonta/Waddle and something like Elijah Moore/Terrace Marshall/ QB? Thoughts?
foxco
Footballguy
I agree there's a drop after 5, which is why the other team probably offered this. I'd still do it as Iike 1.12 for a good WR/QB prospect.
Boone22
Footballguy
I think I’d rather have Waddle then ETN all things considered even. Of course if you REALLY need a RB that changes things. I’d take the 1.06 + 1.12
Pwingles
Footballguy
Not really a big need anywhere really. QB is maybe the biggest need with watsons situation, RB next prolly
Roster here:
Watson/wentz/hurts/dalton
Kamara/Chubb/Akers/JRob/Murray
Adams/Aiyuk/Lamb/Higgins/Fuller/Cooks/Mims
Waller/L. Thomas/Trautman
So decently solid, no real holes. Just not sure two darts is better than 1 better dart
heckmanm
Footballguy
If QB was my biggest need, I'd take the 1.06+1.12. You could either grab Lawrence at 6 if you really want him, or go BPA at 6 and still have a couple QBs to choose from at 12.
lardonastick
Footballguy
Lawrence or Herbert in SF? Does composition of your team matter?
lardonastick
Footballguy
nevermind, totally forgot about this thread
https://forums.footballguys.com/topic/797019-trevor-lawrence-or-justin-herbert/?tab=comments#comment-23412635
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
Chris Carson value? Looking to maybe acquire him cheap as my RB3 on my win now team.
jtd13
Footballguy
I'm with you. I don't love Urban, but almost 700 yards as a rookie and then adding Lawrence seems like a big plus. I would value him close to the wr 4-6 group in this rookie class, which is a late 1st.
Carson has a wide "value" perception. This is totally dependent upon the guy that has him as the range could be quite large. If he is thought at a guy that is always injured and can never be counted on then you can likely get him fairly cheap but if the guy thinks he is a top RB2 back end RB1 then the price is quite heavy. Did the guy draft him, trade for him or ??? Seeing how much he invested may give you an idea how much he values him.
kutta
Footballguy
Lamb
AJ Brown
Swift
Metcalf
Chubb
Dobbins
If Chubb and Dobbins were in better spots, they would move up. Lamb and AJ are super close.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
nittanylion
Footballguy
Do most of you play a Dynasty Format where you get to hold the Player as long as you like, or Dynasty that involves Contracts (Years, Salary Cap, or both)?
Duckboy
IBL Representative
Brown/Lamb
Metcalf
Chubb/Swift
Dobbins
Chubb or Swift depending on which direction you want to take your team.
MAC_32
Footballguy
I understand why his owner would demand it, but I would not offer a 1. Any pick after the last qb you want is fair game though.
I have one of each - 1 league is offense only, keep players forever if you want, no DTS - 14 teams, 21 man rosters
The other is IDP, 12 team, 40 man roster, 12 man DTS. Contracts - you have a cap of 100 contract years, and once a contract expires, player goes into RFA where other owners can bid on the player and you have the option to match or let the player go. We do have rules in place to franchise 1 player which puts some protections on the player.
MAC_32
Footballguy
MAC_32
Footballguy
Thing is with WR, in most formats you can build a good group without investing in one of the current top 10. Once the bottom falls out at rb it gets ugly fast. I just finished a superflex te premium startup and have this:
Godwin- 25
Amari- 27
Woods- 29
Beckham- 28
Fuller- 27
M Williams- 26
Hardman- 23
P Campbell- 24
Hurd- 25
R Higgins- 26
Coutee- 24
I figure I am fine for at least 2 years and if my young guys miss then there are always a half dozen new guys declaring each year.
Godwin- 25
Amari- 27
Woods- 29
Beckham- 28
Fuller- 27
M Williams- 26
Hardman- 23
P Campbell- 24
Hurd- 25
R Higgins- 26
Coutee- 24
I figure I am fine for at least 2 years and if my young guys miss then there are always a half dozen new guys declaring each year.
I am doing a startup dynasty draft right now and here's where these guys went:
16 - Swift
18 - Dobbins
19 - Metcalf
20 - Brown
27 - Chubb
30 - Lamb
wgoldsph
Footballguy
Even if you are down on a player or the next class is full of hype, it still almost never makes sense to me to sell low just to sell after they've only been in the league for one season. There's still someone on this board who is pounding the drum for Austin Pettis to finally get it together and he was drafted ten years ago.
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wgoldsph
Footballguy
I agree with the above posts about him having a wide range of values. You're basically looking at what the owner wants for him. Ymmv
I'm only in one league (thanks for taking my bank account to the woodshed corona) and it's one I've been in for over a decade. We've got a 5 year max contract, 50mil salary cap, 300k salary minimum, roster max/min of 35/30 with unlimited taxi squad of 3 years, full idp (q, rbrb, wrwrwr, te, flex(all non qb), k, dtdt, dede, lblb, cbcb, ss, Def flex). 16 teams in the league.
I really don't like this question because sitting here I know logically those wrs are all going to be better than those rb for longer. But position scarcity and group think would make me put the rbs higher if I were actually going to be drafting right now. So in a vacuum it would be something like all the wrs in one teir then Dobbins small break cubb big break swift. In reality I would probably pick Dobbins first and have chubb somewhere in the middle of the wr grouping, with swift still last. Never trust a Detroit rb.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Simplistic terms, the player who will provide the most raw value at most picks is usually a wide receiver. And of course you can't always pick a wide receiver.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I'm doing a startup tomorrow with people from these boards so I'll refrain from listing them out but will just say if this was FFPC standard I'd easily have Chubb last.
robb
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Apple Juice
Footballguy
Drafting DK and AJB in the same draft is probably the greatest achievement of my life.
MAC_32
Footballguy
He'd need out of Cleveland (UFA after this season) to get that volume, but he's the best RB in the league.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Lamb
AJB
DK
Chubb
Dobbins
Swift
AJB
DK
Chubb
Dobbins
Swift
jtd13
Footballguy
Yeah, he probably can't quite get Henry volume with Hunt there, but I expect the browns to be good and for Chubb to be closing out a lot of games with the lead this year. Plus, their schedule is very RB friendly (if you buy into that sort of thing carrying over). I think 20 touches a game is a decent bet.
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jtd13
Footballguy
I hope you are very young. But either way, there is still time to have a great achievement outside of fantasy football
