Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

[Hot Sauce Guy]

4 minutes ago, wgoldsph said:

How do you guys feel about this trade I was just offered?

My -

Joe Mixon (1 yr)

Evan Engram (1 yr)

2022 2nd

His -

Jk Dobbins (4yr)

 

Current other rbs are CEH (4yr) and K Hunt (1 yr) and I've got j hasty, t homer, and ty Johnson on my ts on the off chance any of them end up being useful at some point in their careers.  Current TEs are Dan Arnold (1 yr), Gerald Everett (1 yr), and CJ Uzomah (2yr) - so basically a lot of backend dart throws.

So you get Dobbins for 4 years, and drop EE, Mixon (both 1 year left) and a 2022 2nd? 

I like that deal, but you might be selling a little low on Mixon. The only thing that makes it work is the contract situation. If you believe in Dobbins, it's a good deal. 

My challenge is I don't know if I believe in Dobbins. His QB is a glory hog in the  ground game. 

[wgoldsph]

26 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

So you get Dobbins for 4 years, and drop EE, Mixon (both 1 year left) and a 2022 2nd? 

I like that deal, but you might be selling a little low on Mixon. The only thing that makes it work is the contract situation. If you believe in Dobbins, it's a good deal. 

My challenge is I don't know if I believe in Dobbins. His QB is a glory hog in the  ground game. 

Yeah, I'm stuck in the same situation with Dobbins.   Part of the reason the guy sent the trade is a number of my best players are on the final year of their contracts - it's a half ppr and full point for first down so Hunt ended as rb 9 last year - including C Godwin and T Boyd (who had wr1 numbers before the burrow injury with the pp1st) and I can only extend the contract of two of them next off season.

My biggest problem is that I'm much stronger at wr than any other position (Godwin, Boyd, deebo, shenault, Meyers) but we're at the point in the off season where nobody wants to move a multi year player without getting one in return, or give away a RB for a wr.  Or a draft pick for any reason.  I don't want to be selling low just to be making moves and blow my chance for this year.

[wgoldsph]

41 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I very much hope you're  right since I just dealt for him.  

Latest news is he may be the WR1, which would be awesome. 

I'm a big fan of the offense as a whole.  Think each wr can have multiple weeks with wr1 numbers, in ppr at least for Boyd.  Chase should help Higgins, he'll be taking green's targets and green was cooked last year.

[Hot Sauce Guy]

3 minutes ago, wgoldsph said:

Yeah, I'm stuck in the same situation with Dobbins.   Part of the reason the guy sent the I don't want to be selling low just to be making moves and blow my chance for this year.

It's sound logic. But you also don't want to lose this year & then have to unceremoniously drop Mixon for nothing. Then you've got nothing to build with. 

That's a tough scoring system with the 1 point per 1st down. So a 1" play could be worth 1 point? Wow. Never heard of that. 

Given the circumstances I'd be temped to go for it. Maybe see what else dude has to balance it with another player in a counter offer, because even with the contract situation, I'm not sure Dobbins adds up to all that. 

[Dr. Octopus]

17 hours ago, smbkrypt24 said:

I need to send out offers for Higgins in all my leagues if some people have Stafford worth more than Higgins and others have Higgins worth a 2nd rounder.

I don’t think that’s the reality in practice. Chase caps Higgins value but if Burrow is the real deal (and he looks it to me), there’s room for both Chase and Higgins to excel.

[smbkrypt24]

1 minute ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I don’t think that’s the reality in practice. Chase caps Higgins value but if Burrow is the real deal (and he looks it to me), there’s room for both Chase and Higgins to excel.

I agree, but if the Higgins owners is in agreement with those other posters I am more than willing to buy for what I deem is less than his value. 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

13 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I don’t think that’s the reality in practice. Chase caps Higgins value but if Burrow is the real deal (and he looks it to me), there’s room for both Chase and Higgins to excel.

Correct. You're replying to a 1/2 truth. This is the operator game. 

If you go back, the statement was made that someone "wouldn't deal Higgins for Stafford + 2 first rounders"

I made the comment that was vastly overvaluing Higgins, and undervaluing Stafford. And then as an aside said I felt Higgins value may have taken a hit with the Chase pick, and lack of improvements to the OL. That he may not be worth a 1st.

There is no consensus discussion where fantasy managers have uniformly determined that Higgins isn't worth a 1st. It was an off-handed suggestion by me, and probably an incorrect, slightly hyperbolic one at that. 

That said, I did score Higgins in a deal at what I saw as slightly less than 1st round value as part of the package, so maybe his value is slightly lower than it would have been before the draft pick of Chase. But you'd probably be hard pressed to find a Higgins owner who'd sell low at this point. 

Edited June 21 by Hot Sauce Guy

[Biabreakable]

1 hour ago, wgoldsph said:

How do you guys feel about this trade I was just offered?

My -

Joe Mixon (1 yr)

Evan Engram (1 yr)

2022 2nd

His -

Jk Dobbins (4yr)

 

Current other rbs are CEH (4yr) and K Hunt (1 yr) and I've got j hasty, t homer, and ty Johnson on my ts on the off chance any of them end up being useful at some point in their careers.  Current TEs are Dan Arnold (1 yr), Gerald Everett (1 yr), and CJ Uzomah (2yr) - so basically a lot of backend dart throws.

This is difficult to say as I do think Mixon might outperform Dobbins in 2021

If your team is stacked and ready to compete for a title this season then I would be more reluctant to make the deal.

However the contract years and age definitely in Dobbins favor so I might take it anyways.

It will be a downgrade at TE but Engram hasn't been as good without Eli. I don't think that is a huge loss and a position that needs an upgrade anyways.

Good luck with your decision. I think its a pretty fair offer as I can see myself liking both sides of this deal.

[Biabreakable]

@wgoldsph If you don't mind scaring your trade partner away maybe try changing the 2nd round pick to a 3rd and see what he says to that.

[wgoldsph]

48 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

 a tough scoring system with the 1 point per 1st down. So a 1" play could be worth 1 point? Wow. Never heard of that.

The idea was based on trying to make fantasy football more in line with what's important in real football.  I think it was inspired by how at the time Patrick Peterson was the best real life cb and yet was worth absolutely nothing in our league, so we went into the rules and trying to add some closer on field correlation.  If you think about it there have been goal line backs over the years that have been league winners an inch at a time.  Mike Evans last year had a game that was something like two catches for two yards and two tds, which ended up being more points in most systems than players who made multiple drive sustaining and significant plays during the same week.

 

9 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

@wgoldsph If you don't mind scaring your trade partner away maybe try changing the 2nd round pick to a 3rd and see what he says to that.

In his offer he actually said "bumped this up to a 2nd cause it's going to be a late second and Engram and Mixon are going to need to be tagged or urfa next year" but that was my thought too.

[FreeBaGeL]

1 hour ago, wgoldsph said:

How do you guys feel about this trade I was just offered?

My -

Joe Mixon (1 yr)

Evan Engram (1 yr)

2022 2nd

His -

Jk Dobbins (4yr)

 

Current other rbs are CEH (4yr) and K Hunt (1 yr) and I've got j hasty, t homer, and ty Johnson on my ts on the off chance any of them end up being useful at some point in their careers.  Current TEs are Dan Arnold (1 yr), Gerald Everett (1 yr), and CJ Uzomah (2yr) - so basically a lot of backend dart throws.

This would be Dobbins for me even without the contracts.  Adding the contract issues it seems like a slam dunk.

[FreeBaGeL]

1 hour ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

That's a tough scoring system with the 1 point per 1st down. So a 1" play could be worth 1 point? Wow. Never heard of that. 

In every league a 1" play can be worth 6 points...

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Just now, FreeBaGeL said:

In every league a 1" play can be worth 6 points...

True. But not every 1" is a TD. lol 

[Biabreakable]

16 minutes ago, wgoldsph said:

The idea was based on trying to make fantasy football more in line with what's important in real football.  I think it was inspired by how at the time Patrick Peterson was the best real life cb and yet was worth absolutely nothing in our league, so we went into the rules and trying to add some closer on field correlation.  If you think about it there have been goal line backs over the years that have been league winners an inch at a time.  Mike Evans last year had a game that was something like two catches for two yards and two tds, which ended up being more points in most systems than players who made multiple drive sustaining and significant plays during the same week.

Yeah Irv Smith had a 2 TD kind of like that last year as well.

Points for 1st downs is awesome in my opinion.

[Hot Sauce Guy]

3 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

Yeah Irv Smith had a 2 TD kind of like that last year as well.

Points for 1st downs is awesome in my opinion.

I agree, but I could see some ugly in-game swings as a result. 

[wgoldsph]

4 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

Yeah Irv Smith had a 2 TD kind of like that last year as well.

Points for 1st downs is awesome in my opinion.

I've loved it since we've implemented it.  Like I said above a player like Boyd, who is a clutch third down outlet, becomes a huge value pick that people with a standard ppr mindset overlook.  Last year I added Crowder as a throw in to a trade and had him replace Godwin in my lineup for the start of the season.  Then of course Crowder got hurt too... F-bomb 2020

[Biabreakable]

3 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I agree, but I could see some ugly in-game swings as a result. 

Stuff like that is going to happen with any scoring system. It happens with PPR all the time. Guy gets .7 points for a reception that loses 3 yards and so on.

1st downs actually matter in a real football game and should be worth at least as much as a reception or rushing attempt is.

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Just now, Biabreakable said:

Stuff like that is going to happen with any scoring system. It happens with PPR all the time. Guy gets .7 points for a reception that loses 3 yards and so on.

1st downs actually matter in a real football game and should be worth at least as much as a reception or rushing attempt is.

Yeah - I'm gonna throw it up for vote at this year's IDP draft in the league I commission. Maybe .5 pt per 1st down. 

I've started to sour on full PPR over the last couple years, but JuJu won me some stupid games last year with his 9/49 type games. 

[Gally]

On 6/19/2021 at 5:26 PM, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Derick Henry or Najee Harris doesn’t improve my team? I also have no 1st rounder in 2022. This would correct that. 

Wow. So Mahomes is worth more than a 2022 1st, Goff, Henry & AC? I’m not even sure they’d accept that offer. 😳

What else would it take, in your opinion? Another RB? Another WR?  What moves the needle to where moving Mahomes actually helps my team? 

Or is the consensus in here that Mahomes is just too valuable to deal for anything? That’s the vibe I’m getting. 

There is a very real possiblity that this trade partner just doesn't have a good match for you to part with Mahomes.  By this I mean you can keep throwing players into the deal but the biggest issue is not having a good enough QB to include in the deal.  His team just doesn't seem to support that.  Sometimes teams are just a bad match based on assets even if they really want to make a deal.  

[Hot Sauce Guy]

4 minutes ago, Gally said:

There is a very real possiblity that this trade partner just doesn't have a good match for you to part with Mahomes.  By this I mean you can keep throwing players into the deal but the biggest issue is not having a good enough QB to include in the deal.  His team just doesn't seem to support that.  Sometimes teams are just a bad match based on assets even if they really want to make a deal.  

Yes indeed. This is an excellent point & one I sort of made in the "competitive rebuild" topic. Many teams want a Mahomes. Many of those teams don't want to pay for, or don't have the right pieces to pay for a Mahomes. 

It's a lot easier to deal lesser players. It's ironic since everyone will say "Mahomes is the most valuable player in SF", but actually getting that value for him is incredibly challenging, and also requires exactly the right trade partner. 

No trade lives in a vacuum.   

 

[Biabreakable]

25 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Yeah - I'm gonna throw it up for vote at this year's IDP draft in the league I commission. Maybe .5 pt per 1st down. 

I've started to sour on full PPR over the last couple years, but JuJu won me some stupid games last year with his 9/49 type games. 

I think you guys will like it.

Its a different stat you will need to study and keep track of. For some of us thats fun, for others its not. Some people don't like change or for things to get too complicated. I have seen some leagues fold before because of too many things like this.

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Just now, Biabreakable said:

I think you guys will like it.

Its a different stat you will need to study and keep track of. For some of us thats fun, for others its not. Some people don't like change or for things to get too complicated. I have seen some leagues fold before because of too many things like this.

I doubt it would pass. My first step is to check our scoring system to see if it's even possible. 

[tangfoot]

3 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

In every league a 1" play can be worth 6 points...

In these leagues, does a TD also count as a 1st down conversion?  I've always wondered.

[Dr. Octopus]

3 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Yes indeed. This is an excellent point & one I sort of made in the "competitive rebuild" topic. Many teams want a Mahomes. Many of those teams don't want to pay for, or don't have the right pieces to pay for a Mahomes. 

It's a lot easier to deal lesser players. It's ironic since everyone will say "Mahomes is the most valuable player in SF", but actually getting that value for him is incredibly challenging, and also requires exactly the right trade partner. 

No trade lives in a vacuum.   

 

That’s why when we say “Mahomes is worth way more than that”, most fail to realize that in each league we’re starting with an 11 team market. Then say 1 or 2 teams in your league is rebuilding and another 20% of the teams just don’t have the pieces you’d want or don’t fit otherwise.

So when trying to move Player X you could be dealing with really only 3 to 4 teams where negotiations have a chance to go anywhere.

We’re not dealing with the general trade market, we’re dealing with a closed market.

[FreeBaGeL]

48 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

In these leagues, does a TD also count as a 1st down conversion?  I've always wondered.

Via official NFL scoring a TD does not count as a first down so I would imagine it works the same way in fantasy.

[Twenty-Four Eighty-Four]

Hoping this is the right place for this. Josh Jacobs. What's a WR(s) range you'd sell to get Jacobs? Same question if you were to give Jacobs, WR(s) range you'd want back.

[Hot Sauce Guy]

50 minutes ago, Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:

Hoping this is the right place for this. Josh Jacobs. What's a WR(s) range you'd sell to get Jacobs? Same question if you were to give Jacobs, WR(s) range you'd want back.

I would think something like an Evans or ARob range of WR?  

I don't have Jacobs, but that feels about right. His value could be a little depressed due to the Raiders signing Drake, so thosetwo specifically could be a little high, but I think that's the ballpark. Solid WR2, not more. 

[Twenty-Four Eighty-Four]

Just now, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I would think something like an Evans or ARob range of WR?  

I don't have Jacobs, but that feels about right. His value could be a little depressed due to the Raiders signing Drake, so thosetwo specifically could be a little high, but I think that's the ballpark. Solid WR2, not more. 

Thanks man. I had such a hard time valuing him. I'm not high, but would look to acquire for the right price, knowing it's a risk.

[Hot Sauce Guy]

1 minute ago, Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:

Thanks man. I had such a hard time valuing him. I'm not high, but would look to acquire for the right price, knowing it's a risk.

Let me check my calcs & see where they have him vs a couple of WRs. 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

2 minutes ago, Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:

Thanks man. I had such a hard time valuing him. I'm not high, but would look to acquire for the right price, knowing it's a risk.

OK, I guessed pretty well, as Dynasty Dominator calc (SF edition, dunno if that matters for RB/WR) has Jacobs worth 120.27 & ARob worth 126.29 so +6.02 for Jacobs, a totally acceptable tolerance. 

Evans is worth 104.6, so +21 for the Jacobs owner. Still within range of trade, but might take a 2022 3rd or something to get it done. 

[Just Win Baby]

Looking for sources on deep startup ADP data. I Googled and checked a few, but the free sources I found only go as deep as 36 RBs. Any recommendations?

[Hot Sauce Guy]

On 6/26/2021 at 10:10 AM, Just Win Baby said:

Looking for sources on deep startup ADP data. I Googled and checked a few, but the free sources I found only go as deep as 36 RBs. Any recommendations?

Not positive, but I believe the FBG draft buddy can be set up for dynasty, and they have ADP next to every player.  

[Mark Football]

After seeing a bunch of Shenault talk in the trade thread it got me to thinking about Chark. If the consensus is Shenault is worth a first what is Charks value? Shenault has a lot of hype right now and if you want him you're going to have buy high. And the way that Lawrence can get the ball down the field I'm thinking that Chark is the play right now as a buy low. But what is his buy low price? Would you pay a first for Shenault but not Chark? Is one of them a higher first than the other?

[Snorkelson]

8 hours ago, Mark Football said:

After seeing a bunch of Shenault talk in the trade thread it got me to thinking about Chark. If the consensus is Shenault is worth a first what is Charks value? Shenault has a lot of hype right now and if you want him you're going to have buy high. And the way that Lawrence can get the ball down the field I'm thinking that Chark is the play right now as a buy low. But what is his buy low price? Would you pay a first for Shenault but not Chark? Is one of them a higher first than the other?

I bet someone would move chark for a future 2nd right now. Not everyone, but some people. I think he’s a good buy low target.

[ZWK]

On 6/26/2021 at 10:10 AM, Just Win Baby said:

Looking for sources on deep startup ADP data. I Googled and checked a few, but the free sources I found only go as deep as 36 RBs. Any recommendations?

http://mizelle.net/mfl/2021/

[DropKick]

19 hours ago, Mark Football said:

After seeing a bunch of Shenault talk in the trade thread it got me to thinking about Chark. If the consensus is Shenault is worth a first what is Charks value? Shenault has a lot of hype right now and if you want him you're going to have buy high. And the way that Lawrence can get the ball down the field I'm thinking that Chark is the play right now as a buy low. But what is his buy low price? Would you pay a first for Shenault but not Chark? Is one of them a higher first than the other?

Personally, I like Chark more... and I also wouldn't give a first in this draft for Shenault.   While I like him as a player, there is always a chance someone falls in the draft; there are also some appealing QBs and guys like Bateman and the Moores (I prefer Elijah) that I'd be happy with.

[Atomic Punk]

I hope this doesn’t come across as a ACF question but here goes ...

You are in the middle of a rebuild, probably won’t compete for the championship at least another year or two. Weak at RB and depth at WR. You get offered a top WR (10 - 15 range) that is not old but heading toward that zone where he is harder to trade. In return, you have to give up a young RB ranked in the 20-25 range that may become a starter.

Every trade calculator says the WR is almost double the value of the RB. What do you do?

I am flummoxed with this decision and been sitting on an offer for a few days. OTOH it makes perfect sense to accept and take the value. OTOH it makes little sense to do so with the construct of the team.

[smbkrypt24]

3 minutes ago, Atomic Punk said:

I hope this doesn’t come across as a ACF question but here goes ...

You are in the middle of a rebuild, probably won’t compete for the championship at least another year or two. Weak at RB and depth at WR. You get offered a top WR (10 - 15 range) that is not old but heading toward that zone where he is harder to trade. In return, you have to give up a young RB ranked in the 20-25 range that may become a starter.

Every trade calculator says the WR is almost double the value of the RB. What do you do?

I am flummoxed with this decision and been sitting on an offer for a few days. OTOH it makes perfect sense to accept and take the value. OTOH it makes little sense to do so with the construct of the team.

I would go with the construct of the team unless its an active league you think you could flip.  I prefer to go by personal rankings over consensus and go for the player I want on my team.  I have made the mistake of using consensus when my personal beliefs differed and regretted it.  I now go with who I want regardless of if I lost value.

[robb]

2 minutes ago, Atomic Punk said:

I hope this doesn’t come across as a ACF question but here goes ...

You are in the middle of a rebuild, probably won’t compete for the championship at least another year or two. Weak at RB and depth at WR. You get offered a top WR (10 - 15 range) that is not old but heading toward that zone where he is harder to trade. In return, you have to give up a young RB ranked in the 20-25 range that may become a starter.

Every trade calculator says the WR is almost double the value of the RB. What do you do?

I am flummoxed with this decision and been sitting on an offer for a few days. OTOH it makes perfect sense to accept and take the value. OTOH it makes little sense to do so with the construct of the team.

I too have been made offers where the “value” of a WR being offered is much more than the “value” of a RB. But, I remain hesitant to make the trade since we value RBs so much more. Good question.

[Blick]

11 minutes ago, Atomic Punk said:

I hope this doesn’t come across as a ACF question but here goes ...

You are in the middle of a rebuild, probably won’t compete for the championship at least another year or two. Weak at RB and depth at WR. You get offered a top WR (10 - 15 range) that is not old but heading toward that zone where he is harder to trade. In return, you have to give up a young RB ranked in the 20-25 range that may become a starter.

Every trade calculator says the WR is almost double the value of the RB. What do you do?

I am flummoxed with this decision and been sitting on an offer for a few days. OTOH it makes perfect sense to accept and take the value. OTOH it makes little sense to do so with the construct of the team.

When I'm in rebuild mode, I'm always looking to increase the overall value of my team.  If I can get a player that I think is either more valuable now, or will become more valuable by the end of the rebuild, I make the trade.  The specific position depth can come later.

Edited June 30 by Blick

[kutta]

16 minutes ago, Atomic Punk said:

I hope this doesn’t come across as a ACF question but here goes ...

You are in the middle of a rebuild, probably won’t compete for the championship at least another year or two. Weak at RB and depth at WR. You get offered a top WR (10 - 15 range) that is not old but heading toward that zone where he is harder to trade. In return, you have to give up a young RB ranked in the 20-25 range that may become a starter.

Every trade calculator says the WR is almost double the value of the RB. What do you do?

I am flummoxed with this decision and been sitting on an offer for a few days. OTOH it makes perfect sense to accept and take the value. OTOH it makes little sense to do so with the construct of the team.

Just tell us the players already!

[Dr. Octopus]

23 minutes ago, kutta said:

Just tell us the players already!

Yes - I mean I respect not wanting to turn this into the AFC - I started hated what this thread became actually, but this question is difficult to answer without the specific players in question.

Generally speaking with a rebuild it seems one would be better off taking the value and then working to turn that value into equal value pieces that fit into the rebuild.

Let's say for example the two players are Hopkins and Michael Carter (maybe a little too extreme) - sure Carter fits into rebuild mode better, but 10 times out of 10 you accept the offer because the value is just too far in your favor. I realize that Hokins at 29 years old is going to be tougher and tougher to turn into multiple first round picks - but there's still time to work on it. Carter may never turn into anything at all which doesn't help a rebuild either.

[Adso]

50 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Yes - I mean I respect not wanting to turn this into the AFC - I started hated what this thread became actually, but this question is difficult to answer without the specific players in question.

Generally speaking with a rebuild it seems one would be better off taking the value and then working to turn that value into equal value pieces that fit into the rebuild.

Let's say for example the two players are Hopkins and Michael Carter (maybe a little too extreme) - sure Carter fits into rebuild mode better, but 10 times out of 10 you accept the offer because the value is just too far in your favor. I realize that Hokins at 29 years old is going to be tougher and tougher to turn into multiple first round picks - but there's still time to work on it. Carter may never turn into anything at all which doesn't help a rebuild either.

I think I would lean towards taking DHop... and fwiw I just drafted Carter at 1.12. 

I think you need to know your league in this one. Hopkins is worth a much higher pick than the ~1.12ish (in 1QB) you probably got him for, especially to a contender. Does your league trade actively? He could net you a much higher future 1st or multiple picks across next and the strong class of 2023 if you connect with someone gunning hard for the chip. 

That said, the 30yr old cliff is an RB thing, not a WR thing... how far along is your rebuild? If you think you're ready to contend next year... you may just want to ride him into the sunset for that bargain basement price. I bet he has 2 more years of elite level play at minimum and he should remain in the WR1 conversation for a few more after that if he remains in AZ paired with Kyler.

It's not a bad position... take the trade, try to land a boat for him, play him out if that doesn't materialize. I really like Carter, but chances are stacked against him to be anything more than an occasional PPR RB2. So, other than the chance that DHop wins you an extra game or two and lowers your draft pick next year, your risks seems pretty low.

Edited June 30 by Adso

[Atomic Punk]

1 hour ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Yes - I mean I respect not wanting to turn this into the AFC - I started hated what this thread became actually, but this question is difficult to answer without the specific players in question.

Generally speaking with a rebuild it seems one would be better off taking the value and then working to turn that value into equal value pieces that fit into the rebuild.

Let's say for example the two players are Hopkins and Michael Carter (maybe a little too extreme) - sure Carter fits into rebuild mode better, but 10 times out of 10 you accept the offer because the value is just too far in your favor. I realize that Hokins at 29 years old is going to be tougher and tougher to turn into multiple first round picks - but there's still time to work on it. Carter may never turn into anything at all which doesn't help a rebuild either.

Pretty close guess. The two players in question are Michael Thomas and Trey Sermon. This should be a slam dunk accept, since Thomas is valued a lot more. That said, Sermon could be a RB 1 by mid season and for a rebuild with little RB depth, that is exactly what you are trying to hit on with your picks.

[Atomic Punk]

41 minutes ago, Adso said:

I think I would lean towards taking DHop... and fwiw I just drafted Carter at 1.12. 

I think you need to know your league in this one. Hopkins is worth a much higher pick than the ~1.12ish (in 1QB) you probably got him for, especially to a contender. Does your league trade actively? He could net you a much higher future 1st or multiple picks across next and the strong class of 2023 if you connect with someone gunning hard for the chip. 

That said, the 30yr old cliff is an RB thing, not a WR thing... how far along is your rebuild? If you think you're ready to contend next year... you may just want to ride him into the sunset for that bargain basement price. I bet he has 2 more years of elite level play at minimum and he should remain in the WR1 conversation for a few more after that if he remains in AZ paired with Kyler.

It's not a bad position... take the trade, try to land a boat for him, play him out if that doesn't materialize. I really like Carter, but chances are stacked against him to be anything more than an occasional PPR RB2. So, other than the chance that DHop wins you an extra game or two and lowers your draft pick next year, your risks seems pretty low.

See previous post. I’m at least 1 if not 2 years from competing unless things totally break in my direction. In this scenario, Thomas should still be valuable or convertible to other assets like future picks.

[Gally]

1 minute ago, Atomic Punk said:

Pretty close guess. The two players in question are Michael Thomas and Trey Sermon. This should be a slam dunk accept, since Thomas is valued a lot more. That said, Sermon could be a RB 1 by mid season and for a rebuild with little RB depth, that is exactly what you are trying to hit on with your picks.

If you are truly in a rebuild I would keep Sermon.  The upside on him if he hits is so much higher and he should be hitting his prime by the time your "rebuild" is coming complete.  To give up Sermon I would want a bit more than Thomas based on the position you currently are in.  Take into account that I traded up to get Sermon as him as the #2 rookie RB behind Harris.  So I am very high on Sermon. 

 

That being said, if you have an active trading league and you think Thomas can indeed bring you a lot more from other teams then it may make sense to pull the trigger.  In my experience though it never seems to workout well when you trade for a player you expect to flip.  Mainly because the rest of the league just saw the deal you made and even though that shouldn't have any affect on future dealings it always does.  

[Dr. Octopus]

7 minutes ago, Atomic Punk said:

Pretty close guess. The two players in question are Michael Thomas and Trey Sermon. This should be a slam dunk accept, since Thomas is valued a lot more. That said, Sermon could be a RB 1 by mid season and for a rebuild with little RB depth, that is exactly what you are trying to hit on with your picks.

The problem here is that Thomas' production slipped already this past season. If Winston or Hill don't step up, his value will continue to sink. I have some faith in Winston being effective and actually being better for Thomas than Brees was with an arm that looked shot - but obviously that can go South quickly if "bad" Winston shows up. I don't have much faith in Hill at all, and I have fear that Payton wants to make him work.

In this case I'd probably hold onto Sermon.

[Adso]

Josh Jacobs. Has he hit rock bottom and is worth a speculative add? Do we just need

The big negatives I'm aware of: dismantled OL, Drake for big $ capping his targets and possibly impacting his carries, a 3.9ypc avg in 2020, and some boom/bust in his game to game performance.

On the upside: 

3 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

The problem here is that Thomas' production slipped already this past season. If Winston or Hill don't step up, his value will continue to sink. I have some faith in Winston being effective and actually being better for Thomas than Brees was with an arm that looked shot - but obviously that can go South quickly if "bad" Winston shows up. I don't have much faith in Hill at all, and I have fear that Payton wants to make him work.

In this case I'd probably hold onto Sermon.

Agree with this. I'm pretty high on Sermon.

[Atomic Punk]

Aside from the specifics of this potential trade, I find this scenario one of the more difficult to navigate when building a dynasty team ... when to pull the trigger, when to risk the idea of a flip, etc. It is definitely league specific, as noted above. Some leagues trading occurs frequently and other leagues it is like pulling teeth to get anything happening.

[Gally]

1 minute ago, Atomic Punk said:

Aside from the specifics of this potential trade, I find this scenario one of the more difficult to navigate when building a dynasty team ... when to pull the trigger, when to risk the idea of a flip, etc. It is definitely league specific, as noted above. Some leagues trading occurs frequently and other leagues it is like pulling teeth to get anything happening.

I think this basically comes down to the confidence you have in your own abilities.  Owners that tend to be hesitant don't have the confidence in their abilities to rate players properly and are afraid to make a mistake.  I found once I just let that part go (being afraid to make a mistake) and trusted what I saw/researched it made it much easier to make moves and I didn't second guess them because I knew I put in the time to come to my own conclusions.  Besides having fun the point of this hobby is to build your own team......so do it.  Make decisions and go with it and don't be afraid to be wrong.  There will be another move coming up next that can go the other way.  Trust yourself and do what you think is best for your team.