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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread


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48 minutes ago, Snorkelson said:

Tell me if I’m off on these valuations in terms of rookie picks. Assume 12 team/ppr/1/2/3/1/1/1/1

Baldwin- late 1st

marvin Jones- early 2

cj anderson- late 2/early3

shaheen- early-mid 2

gronk- late 1

lockett- late 2

ebron- mid 2

dak- late 1? Early 2? 

Don't know about consensus but from my view, I wouldn't give a 1st for Dak in most leagues but with the right circumstances sure.  The only reason gronk isn't a high first is risk of retiring this or next year. 

But yeah, pretty close I think.

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Just now, -OZ- said:

Don't know about consensus but from my view, I wouldn't give a 1st for Dak in most leagues but with the right circumstances sure.  The only reason gronk isn't a high first is risk of retiring this or next year. 

But yeah, pretty close I think.

Yeah, typically qbs aren’t going to go for much until there’s an injury. Some people higher on dak than others. 

Shaheen has been hard to pry from owners. Probably should have slated Ebron around late 2. 

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15 minutes ago, fruity pebbles said:

Ones that stand out to me. High on Shaheen, Ebron and Dak. Low on Gronk and Baldwin.

Gronk is kind of in limbo, but may be discounted at the moment. 

Baldwin is a guy I’d like to move where I have him. I thought 1.08-1.12 range, but maybe I’ll go for 1.05.

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1 hour ago, Snorkelson said:

Tell me if I’m off on these valuations in terms of rookie picks. Assume 12 team/ppr/1/2/3/1/1/1/1

Baldwin- late 1st

marvin Jones- early 2

cj anderson- late 2/early3

shaheen- early-mid 2

gronk- late 1

lockett- late 2

ebron- mid 2

dak- late 1? Early 2? 

As an owner of C.J. Anderson I can’t see moving him for a late 2nd.  He’s currently a starting RB and even if he gets traded he’s got a good shot to compete for a starting role.  He’s worth more to me as depth on my bench than a late 2nd would be. 

Edited to add: I think he’s undervalued. He’s got a career 4.4 ypc and just came off a 1000 yard rushing season. 

Edited by Boone22
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4 minutes ago, Boone22 said:

As an owner of C.J. Anderson I can’t see moving him for a late 2nd.  He’s currently a starting RB and even if he gets traded he’s got a good shot to compete for a starting role.  He’s worth more to me as depth on my bench than a late 2nd would be. 

There's a decent chance he's part of a rbbc next year. He may be worth more than a late 2nd to you but I don't think anyone is giving more than that for him right now.

Could be a buy low candidate. 

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44 minutes ago, Boone22 said:

As an owner of C.J. Anderson I can’t see moving him for a late 2nd.  He’s currently a starting RB and even if he gets traded he’s got a good shot to compete for a starting role.  He’s worth more to me as depth on my bench than a late 2nd would be. 

Edited to add: I think he’s undervalued. He’s got a career 4.4 ypc and just came off a 1000 yard rushing season. 

The League I have cj in I’m coming off a somewhat lucky championship. I have some stuff to build around but need to get younger and move some assets before they lose all their value. If I can get something in the 2nd for him I’ll probably take my chance. I think there is some depth in this draft. 

This particular league drafts before the nfl draft so that makes those picks worth a little more. 

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58 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

There's a decent chance he's part of a rbbc next year. He may be worth more than a late 2nd to you but I don't think anyone is giving more than that for him right now.

Could be a buy low candidate. 

Would not want to rely on CJ as a starter, but he is productive for both fantasy and real life when he gets the workload. So that makes him a good spot play when you think game script will work in his favor.

As for value, he has none for rebuilders.

For contenders, he’s the definition of a hold; he’s solid depth, no reason to sell for a third and rare that someone would buy for mid-high second.

in the FFPC with the cutdowns to 16 (including K & D) in March, he can fit into another category I use: re-buy. 

If I have a strong roster and know I want him back on my team next year, I will drop and target in late 2nd or early 3rd depending on the rookie class. It’s a risky game because someone may grab earlier but I use this re-buy strategy for several depth guys in FFPC. I’d rather re-buy the guys I want rather than give them to another team at a deep cut rate.

Edited by JackReacher
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Just now, Dr. Octopus said:

So if he goes to a team as a backup RB, what kind of dynasty value would he have at 28 years old? You may get handcuff value (late 3rd/4th).

Or he could be a flex start if he gets enough touches. Worst case, a bye week filler. In deep leagues that is more than rosterable. He's 28, not dead.

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Just now, Magic_Man said:

Or he could be a flex start if he gets enough touches. Worst case, a bye week filler. In deep leagues that is more than rosterable. He's 28, not dead.

Maybe - I just don't see him being pursued in free agency for anything more than a veteran minimum contract. 28 is not dead for good RBs, but for a journeyman type player it's close to the end. I see him as depth on an NFL team at this point. I could surely be wrong about it though.

 

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19 minutes ago, Magic_Man said:

No, but there you go. He must have value ;)

I'd rather keep my 3rd and throw another dart on a rookie, or pick up an un-kept veteran in the draft, than have Gillislee on my roster.

2cents

 

ETA: my leagues keep < 20 players.

Edited by joey
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6 hours ago, Snorkelson said:

Tell me if I’m off on these valuations in terms of rookie picks. Assume 12 team/ppr/1/2/3/1/1/1/1

Baldwin- late 1st

marvin Jones- early 2

cj anderson- late 2/early3

shaheen- early-mid 2

gronk- late 1

lockett- late 2

ebron- mid 2

dak- late 1? Early 2? 

Baldwin is 1.5 years older than Marvin and they're coming off similar (total score) seasons. I might be in the minority, but I'd flip those 2 values. 
CJA - he's 27 and coming off a 1000 yard season. I guess the uncertainty of his situation might suppress his value, but after free agency I expect his value to be higher than this.
Ebron - I wouldn't pay that much for him. 

All the others seem fair. I don't have a good feel for Dak's value. I'd have to be pretty desperate to trade a 1st for a QB, though.

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7 hours ago, Snorkelson said:

Tell me if I’m off on these valuations in terms of rookie picks. Assume 12 team/ppr/1/2/3/1/1/1/1

Baldwin- late 1st

marvin Jones- early 2

cj anderson- late 2/early3

shaheen- early-mid 2

gronk- late 1

lockett- late 2

ebron- mid 2

dak- late 1? Early 2? 

Baldwin: Mid/Late 1st
Jones: Late 1st
Anderson: Late 2nd, higher with a good landing spot
Shaheen: 3rd
Gronk: Mid/Late 1st
Lockett: 3rd 
Ebron: 3rd
Dak: Late 1st

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16 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

Rank these QBs: Dak, Mahomes, Goff, Winston, Mariota

Goff (23.4)
Dak (24.6)
Mariota (24.3)
Mahomes (22.5)
Winston (24.2)

That was harder than I expected. I included ages just because it does take a QB some time to learn. Being tutored by Reid is what made me give the edge to the unknown Mahomes over Winston (well, that and recency bias). I was pretty torn between Dak and Mariota. 


 

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3 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

To answer my own question:

Dak

Goff, Mahomes, Mariota, Winston

I'm kind of surprised how quickly Dak's market dried up.  

I was going to say the same about mariota. He stunk this year but I don’t think he was ever healthy.  And the coaching/young WRs didn’t do him any favors.  Still, he lead the team back a bunch late in games and is the only one in the group who has won playoff game. That suggests staying power.  I’d easily rank him first among this group IF we were ignoring situation.  

All things considered i’d say:

Goff, mariota, dak, mahomes. 

Winston isnt close.  

Probably underrating Dak bc he’s a stinkin cowboy.

 

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14 minutes ago, oldmanhawkins said:

I was going to say the same about mariota. He stunk this year but I don’t think he was ever healthy.  And the coaching/young WRs didn’t do him any favors.  Still, he lead the team back a bunch late in games and is the only one in the group who has won playoff game. That suggests staying power.  I’d easily rank him first among this group IF we were ignoring situation.  

Yeah but Mariota came crashing down from perceived potential, not actual performance.  Prior to his "setbacks" this year (in quotes because they weren't really setbacks so much as they were a failure to improve) he was QB22 and QB16 in the prior two years.  He just didn't get any better.

Dak came back down from actual performance.  QB6 as a rookie and QB2 this year the first half of the season prior to the bottom falling out.

That's a pretty big difference.

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13 hours ago, Snorkelson said:

Tell me if I’m off on these valuations in terms of rookie picks. Assume 12 team/ppr/1/2/3/1/1/1/1

Baldwin- late 1st

marvin Jones- early 2

cj anderson- late 2/early3

shaheen- early-mid 2

gronk- late 1

lockett- late 2

ebron- mid 2

dak- late 1? Early 2? 

Baldwin - 1.6-1.9

Marvin - Late 1st/Early 2nd

CJ - Mid to Late 2

Shaheen - Mid to Late 2

Gronk - 1.2-1.5

Lockett - Late 2

Ebron - Early to Mid 2

Dak - Late 1/Early 2

Edited by jeaton6
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6 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

Rank these QBs: Dak, Mahomes, Goff, Winston, Mariota

 

 

depends who else I own at QB.

If I have a top QB like Rodgers or Wentz, I might prefer someone like Mahomes to shoot for the moon with someone who might be a future star.

Besides that, by tiers, I'd go:

Dak, Goff

Mariota, Winston

Mahomes - wild card!

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6 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

Rank these QBs: Dak, Mahomes, Goff, Winston, Mariota

 

 

Goff-former #1 pick, just had a very productive season and his Coach appears to know a real lot about offense and is going to surround him with a lot of talent at the skill positions

Mahomes-leap of faith here but I will trust Any Reid on this one...also like having Hunt-Kelce-Hill trio at his disposal

Dak-tough to get excited about him when you look at his weapons in the passing game

Mariota-not where I thought he would be at this point but still think he will be a good one...a lot riding on Vrabel being a good Coach

Winston-was real high on him last year but until I see some signs of maturity (and a new Coach) I don't want to deal with him

Edited by Boston
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How are people viewing Martavis right now?  1 year away from what seems to be the prime of his career as he becomes an unrestricted free agent.  Seems to have cleaned up his act with much less of a suspension risk, although discipline might still be an issue.  Showed plenty of promise the past 2 years and could be the cream of the crop for free agency in 2019.  After looking at the list of 2019 free agent list HERE, Mike Evans and OBJ seem destined to re-sign with their teams, Landry is up in the air for everything right now and could be the other guy in '19, and other than that it's all older vets who are role players at this point in their careers.  

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6 hours ago, Zyphros said:

How are people viewing Martavis right now?  1 year away from what seems to be the prime of his career as he becomes an unrestricted free agent.  Seems to have cleaned up his act with much less of a suspension risk, although discipline might still be an issue.  Showed plenty of promise the past 2 years and could be the cream of the crop for free agency in 2019.  After looking at the list of 2019 free agent list HERE, Mike Evans and OBJ seem destined to re-sign with their teams, Landry is up in the air for everything right now and could be the other guy in '19, and other than that it's all older vets who are role players at this point in their careers.  

I own him in one league and consider him a hold. Probably fairly cheap depending on what someone gave for him (I imagine he’s been moved at least once in most leagues). I think he will still have flex value this year with Pittsburgh, and has the tools to be more than that down the road if he keeps his nose clean. Contract year motivation may help him stay focused. Even if he has a meh year, he will hold some value. Ben still took his shots but seemed to miss him on those this year. 

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1 hour ago, Snorkelson said:

I own him in one league and consider him a hold. Probably fairly cheap depending on what someone gave for him (I imagine he’s been moved at least once in most leagues). I think he will still have flex value this year with Pittsburgh, and has the tools to be more than that down the road if he keeps his nose clean. Contract year motivation may help him stay focused. Even if he has a meh year, he will hold some value. Ben still took his shots but seemed to miss him on those this year. 

I have tried to move him repeatedy this offseason from a team deep at WR, and can't find any takers at all.

In my league at least, his risk factor has gotten too high for folks to acquire.  Suggests he has become a strong buy low.

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32 minutes ago, Arodin said:

I have tried to move him repeatedy this offseason from a team deep at WR, and can't find any takers at all.

In my league at least, his risk factor has gotten too high for folks to acquire.  Suggests he has become a strong buy low.

What would you take for him? (like what were some of the offers you shot out?)

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18 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

Rank these QBs: Dak, Mahomes, Goff, Winston, Mariota

 

 

 

18 hours ago, FF Ninja said:

Goff (23.4)
Dak (24.6)
Mariota (24.3)
Mahomes (22.5)
Winston (24.2)

That was harder than I expected. I included ages just because it does take a QB some time to learn. Being tutored by Reid is what made me give the edge to the unknown Mahomes over Winston (well, that and recency bias). I was pretty torn between Dak and Mariota. 


 

This is closest to how I see it. Almost verbatim. I don't know the others leadership but Mariota is exactly who we want as Titans fan, other than his propensity to get dinged and injured. 

If we're talking ff, which I presume we are, it's the order Ninja lists. But for the guy I want running my team, I'll take Marcus first, dak, goff, Mahomes, gap, Winston.

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3 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

 

This is closest to how I see it. Almost verbatim. I don't know the others leadership but Mariota is exactly who we want as Titans fan, other than his propensity to get dinged and injured. 

If we're talking ff, which I presume we are, it's the order Ninja lists. But for the guy I want running my team, I'll take Marcus first, dak, goff, Mahomes, gap, Winston.

Yeah, I wouldn't be shocked if Mariota ends up with the best career: https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/marcus-mariota/
All the indicators are there. 

That was a tough list. Three of those guys were 1st or 2nd overall picks. I gave the edge to Goff since his offense is on the upswing and he's so young. He could take off in year 2 with McVay or he could regress ala Winston. I'll be watching Tennessee with a lot of interest this year with the new staff. I know nothing about LaFleur, but the TEN OL is solid and I like the Davis/Matthews/Taylor WR trio.

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My rankings were from a fantasy football perspective and for me I put Mahomes on the bottom of the young QB list because I just don't know enough about him and then the next one up was Mariota. I like him as an NFL QB but I just don't feel his FF upside is as high as the others.

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2 hours ago, Arodin said:

I have tried to move him repeatedy this offseason from a team deep at WR, and can't find any takers at all.

In my league at least, his risk factor has gotten too high for folks to acquire.  Suggests he has become a strong buy low.

 

2 hours ago, FF Ninja said:

What would you take for him? (like what were some of the offers you shot out?)

I own him in 2 leagues as I think he can be Jeffery when free agency hits in 2019.  Is it really his risk factor, or is it that he's the 4th option on that offense now?  I don't know the answer to that but his ceiling is high, and if J. Gordon can have higher value, then I don't see why Martavis' would be lower.  I'd sell for a late 1st, but I doubt anyone would offer that.  I've tried to use him in packages but he seems to be deterring people from accepting offers I throw out.  

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Like Zyphros, I havent tried to sell him straight up, because it's the time of year when everyone is in love with draft picks.  I have tried to pair him with another wr or rb to grab a midfirst or to move up from late to early 1st with no success.  He doesnt seem to move the needle much...feedback suggests folks are viewing him as a flier now, and are all in love with Juju (I get a lot of counters asking for Juju instead).

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11 hours ago, Arodin said:

Like Zyphros, I havent tried to sell him straight up, because it's the time of year when everyone is in love with draft picks.  I have tried to pair him with another wr or rb to grab a midfirst or to move up from late to early 1st with no success.  He doesnt seem to move the needle much...feedback suggests folks are viewing him as a flier now, and are all in love with Juju (I get a lot of counters asking for Juju instead).

Yea everyone loves Juju. I currently have the 1.01 owner in negotiations right now. I've offered Bell and there are some other pieces involved, and he says he likes the offer but is pushing for Juju instead of Bell.  Not as a straight replacement in the offer but as my main piece to offer.

How would people rank Juju vs the 1.01? 

Juju equals the 1.02 and change but not quite as much as the 1.01?

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