Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
You thinking about buying or selling? He's a sell, IMO. 3rd down back who got a ton of work due to being on an 0-16 team that was constantly trailing... also managed 7 TDs on like ~150 touches. If I was a betting man, I'd bet 2017 will go down as his career year. Going forward, I'd expect 2015/2016 type seasons. Which means he's a suitable bye week filler, but the upside is lacking.
Approximate 12-team ppr value: Late 2nd - if and only if you are really thin at RB
Best case scenario: Browns decide to draft a RB and he's a total bust so they lean on Duke for a year
Worst case scenario: Browns draft or sign a 3-down back that they love and they give him a LeVeon-esque workload, leaving scraps for Duke
ADP from Feb has him at 77, around rookies like Penny and Moore (way sexier with rookie fever starting).
Duke's rushing DVOA was 15.8% on 82 carries and he was 4th in RB targets. Again, not sexy but productive and a high floor RB2.
IMHO, his best case scenario is to sign somewhere when he is a FA and get 200+ touches.
This year, best case is to remain in the same role and be the Kamara-lite to a rookie's Ingram.
Duke's rushing DVOA was 15.8% on 82 carries and he was 4th in RB targets. Again, not sexy but productive and a high floor RB2.
IMHO, his best case scenario is to sign somewhere when he is a FA and get 200+ touches.
This year, best case is to remain in the same role and be the Kamara-lite to a rookie's Ingram.
kutta
Footballguy
Makes total sense.
I like Adams a lot, but I do have trouble putting him in that top 10 ish. But, When you really look at the point differentials between the all the guys bunched from WR5 to WR15, it's just not that much - about 2 points per game seperate those guys. I don't have many doubts that Adams will continue to fall into that category, and if things break right, he could bust through to elite. But I'd be pretty happy with WR15 numbers for the rest of his career.
kutta
Footballguy
Guys, convince me to do this.
Remember, we are in Arizona so David Johnson isn’t just great, he’s like freaking Superman around here. I drafted him and love him like I love my children, maybe more.
I’ve convinced the owner of 1.01 to give me 1.01 and 2.01 for DJ.
I’m just having so much trouble letting DJ go! :(
Remember, we are in Arizona so David Johnson isn’t just great, he’s like freaking Superman around here. I drafted him and love him like I love my children, maybe more.
I’ve convinced the owner of 1.01 to give me 1.01 and 2.01 for DJ.
I’m just having so much trouble letting DJ go! :(
Last edited by a moderator:
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
I personally have the 1.01 over DJ but I know a lot disagree, so adding the 2.01 is gravy. DJ will be nearly 27 when the season starts and his team is in transition. I would look at this as a golden parachute personally.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
If he "earned" the 1.01 this is such a foolish move for him. In your case if you were a true contender, I'd have some hesitation but ultimately I'd take it. While the 2.01 isn't a lock to hit, it's some gravy on top and likely something you cam flip if you want.
Snap accept. Barkley is like 5+ years younger. Even if you're not into Barkley, you could flip that pick for just about whatever you want. The 1.01 is like a genie in a bottle this year.
But like Dr.O said... this guy is a fool assuming he was the worst team (the fact 2.01 is also involved indicates he was). If DJ flops and Barkley flourishes, he might never trade with you again.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Do it. Do it. Cut the crap and do it.
Probably should have quoted @kutta rather than ninja gaiden. Side note, ninja gaiden was the “dark souls” of Nintendo. Super tough.
Last edited by a moderator:
kutta
Footballguy
All good points. I won the league two years ago but suffered last year without DJ and with Jordy having a bad year. So my team could win it again this year with DJ back, but I really like the idea of getting younger.
I’ll post in the trades thread if we end up making a deal.
I’ll post in the trades thread if we end up making a deal.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
While I don't think Johnson flops - he surely has some risk - but the bottom line is he's not going to turn around the worst team in the league by himself right away (especially when they are also trading another valuable pick) and he'll be 27 this year.
There is a non-zero chance Barkley outperforms DJ this year let alone over the next couple of years.
Last edited by a moderator:
You could make that trade and then deal the 2.01 (with maybe a bit more) for a guy like McCoy. Or possibly flip the 1.01 for more than you just paid for it. It’s an easy accept for me.
I'm expecting a 2017 Carlos Hyde-like performance from DJ which I think most DJ owners would consider a flop even though it would actually be a pretty solid performance given the likely situation (although for Larry's sake I hope they pull off a miracle and are competitive). But I wasn't really predicting a DJ flop, just saying if it happens (and Barkley lives up to the hype) this guy will probably never deal with Kutta again because it would be such a fleecing.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
While I agree with you that it's probably more likely than not that DJ is not even a conversation starter in a trade for Barkley at this time next year, that's not the case yet and I think you're going a little over the top here with the "he won't even trade with you" stuff.
That would be a pretty bad way to run a team if you avoid other owners based on the results of trades that were at least reasonably close in consensus value at the time.
DJ is currently ahead of Barkley in early startup ADP and while I expect that to change as we approach the season its not some crazy difference according to the consensus even if most of us here likely favor one side. That's even before we factor in that the guy likely knows he is giving up some value to feed his Cardinals' homerism.
Last edited by a moderator:
I agree that it's a bad way to run a team, but I've seen it happen and I've got friends who are in that situation (fleeced a team one too many times in that owner's eyes so they essentially got blacklisted by that owner). And let's face it, if they earned the 1.01 and 2.01, they probably are running their team in a pretty bad way.FreeBaGeL said:
For the record, I don't expect DJ to flop nor do I expect Barkley to crush him in scoring in year 1. But with the hype that will build around Barkley in the next 6 months, that owner is going to have some serious buyer's remorse if Barkley does actually finish as the RB1 or RB2 on the season and DJ does worse than I expect (~RB10).
But I wasn't trying to talk him out of it. I said snap accept. Was just adding that in a year this could easily look like a fleecing.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
It's a good year to have the 2.01. It's quite the icing.kutta said:
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Barkley is the truth. I think down the road you will be happy you made this trade.kutta said:
I still expect Johnson to have a very good season in 2018 and given that Barkley will be a rookie could pretty easily outperform Barkley this season, but over the next 3 seasons I would favor Barkley and sadly Johnson will be nearing the end of his career by then while Barkley will likely still have some juice for several seasons left at that point but who knows? A lot can happen in 3 years.
David Johnson just turned 26 years old in December so he will be 26 years old for the majority of the 2018 season. Calling him 27 years old to start the season is technically inaccurate.
I think their value is very close. I have seen enough ability from Barkley as a receiver to think he can match Johnsons abilities in that area though and RB is a young mans game, so while I think they are pretty even and I would likely select Johnson ahead of Barkley in redraft, that age difference is enough to have Barkley ahead of Johnson in dynasty, as I consider everything else about equal.
Last edited by a moderator:
kutta
Footballguy
I agree with everything you said. Add in that we are in Arizona and huge Cardinals fans, and it made it that much harder to pull the trigger. But I think it's the best decision for my team in the long run.
Ben & Jerry's
Footballguy
What would you give for Deshaun Watson ?
I was offered Watson for Godwin + Moncrief + 1.11 in a 12 team IDP dynasty starting QRWWWFT.
I was offered Watson for Godwin + Moncrief + 1.11 in a 12 team IDP dynasty starting QRWWWFT.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Thats not a bad price for Watson as Godwin and Moncrief are WR 3s at best and while you might be able to get a good player at pick 1.11 for example one of the QB from this draft class with that pick, Watson showed a lot of promise. I thought he was the best QB from last years group and this years group of QB would be challenged to match what he did before being injured, so I don't think any of this years QB deserve to be rated higher than him.
The deal in total value is likely in his favor but I think you are getting the best player in the deal. I suppose you could ask for him to add a lower rookie pick such as a 2nd rounder or early 3rd round pick to make it a bit more even.
Its possible that the rookie hype gets stronger after the combine (even likely) and perhaps you could move pick 11 for more than that in a month or two if you want to wait for other offers.
Boston
Footballguy
This looks like a complete and utter steal to me...the sample size on Watson is small but he has the potential to be an elite, difference-making fantasy asset...a guy that can single-handedly help you win some weekly match-ups...while the sample size is small this is a guy who did not come out of nowhere...he is an All-everything college player drafted in the first round who did not miss a beat the second he stepped on the field in the NFL...to get him you are giving up a package I would not even consider for lesser players than him...Moncrief and Godwin are not core parts of anyone's roster...outside of being young they are not anything special when you are talking about getting a potential stud like Watson...Moncrief has been a real disappointment who has been cut in redraft leagues and I look at Godwin as being a nice prospect with limited upside...the 1.11 is valuable but is out of the range of the pre-draft studs (I don't do IDP so I am sure it probably has more value in that format)...the more I look at this deal the less I understand why it would even be considered...any time you can a acquire a big time player without giving up a core piece you have struck fantasy gold...this is a horrible trade...
Last edited by a moderator:
In a deeper league, I'd side with Godwin, Moncrief, and the pick because I like the potential of both of those guys and they're young (and you can probably get a nice RB at 1.11 this year). They probably won't both pan out, but one of them could easily be a fantasy WR2. Buuut you only start one RB, so that flex is likely to be a RB meaning extra WRs have minimum value if only the top ~36 are worthy of starting spots. So it comes down to team situation and league. Watson seems overhyped IMO, so if you think you can flip him for more, do it. If you are desperate for QB and believe Watson is the truth then do it. If you are painfully thin at WR, don't do it.
I think the Watson side of this deal is clearly advantaged. Watson was exceptional in his, albeit limited, sample size. He, in a 12 team league, will give you a long term positional match up over the next several years on a week to week basis. He is the type of player that will win games single handedly when he goes off. The Godwin, Moncrief, 1.11 side looks decent based on volume, but I'm skeptical that any one component of this group rises above JAG status.
To me, if I get offered this package and receive Watson, this is a pretty cut and dried snap accept.
Warhogs
Footballguy
I would jump on this. Of all the pieces involved Watson seems to be the only player that could be in the elite tier in his position.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Julio seems to have lost some value- still getting a return on investment but his value last year at this time was sky high. I would think a top 5 pick and an early 2nd is about where he sits, 1.01 probably gets julio and a late 1st, with perhaps another pick in the 15-20 range.
I would not move 1.01 for Julio. On the fence about 1.02. Would deal 1.03 for him.
kutta
Footballguy
It was, but I’m not countering because I know he wants the 1.01 and I’m hanging on to it for now.
Good call. The value of pick 1.01 will only grow. The ideal time to deal it, at least in terms of maximizing the return, likely will be right before the draft when dynasty owners will be in full prospect overload.
Zyphros
Footballguy
Might not work out that way if Barkley goes to Cleveland. That wouldn't deter me from taking him 1.01 but some might sell for less if it works out like that.
Perhaps. I believe that the Browns will end up with either Cousins or take a QB at #1 overall. This is based on my own pure speculation. I think the Giants take Barkley at #2- simply too good to pass up.
Aunt Jemima
Footballguy
What kind of pick are guys like Josh Doctson and Corey Coleman worth? Is an early to mid 2nd asking too much?
Snorkelson
Footballguy
I think that’s reasonable. FWIW i think Coleman>doctson. Doctson came into the League a bit older, and hasn’t really flashed much to get excited about. I traded Coleman in 12 team ppr for Ebron this offseason, if that helps gauge. I think now is the time to move Coleman before any more whispers of Pryor signing there get louder. They are also decent guys to dangle to upgrade a current pick. If you have a later 1st and want to move up to 1.05 range, or a mid 2nd and want to move to late first range, those guys might bridge the gap. I think Coleman has a good skill set that shouldn’t be affected by his hand injuries, but he may need a new team to reach that potential.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I'd pay a mid 2nd for Coleman and an early 3rd for Doctson. I really like the the depth of this class, so am I am being stingy with my draft picks.
I agree with the others that Coleman>Doctson. I haven't been able to find anyone who wants to give me Coleman for a 2nd, though. I believe his rookie ADP was around 1.03 two years ago, so two fluke-ish injuries later, his owners are not ready to cut bait that cheaply yet. I'm giving up trying to acquire him until after the NFL draft. Then I'll circle the wagons and see if rookie fever can help me finally get a Coleman share or two.
NeverEnough
Footballguy
So Doctson isn't worth a damn now?
Concept Coop
Footballguy
According to r/dynastyff, plenty of folks are willing to buy for a late 1st. I think that's crazy talk, but he does have a market.
https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/comments/7zxsvy/trade_value_polls_d_parker_d_foreman_j_nelson_d/
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
I haven't seen Doctson moved for much in my leagues. I got him as a throw in on a larger deal earlier this offseason, and flipped him basically for Deshaun Watson (no special QB scoring) and was thrilled with that.
As a Redskins fan, I have to say that I haven't seen him flash very often. Given how much people like Gruden's passing offense and how much they like Cousins in general, that's not a good sign. Especially since Doctson came in kinda over-aged and seemingly "ready to play". He had the injury that screwed up his rookie year, but even this year he didn't impress me much.
That doesn't necessarily mean he's a bust. Davante Adams took a few years, with a much better QB and better WR teammates to learn from. He was younger, but still.
Either way, I'd be trying to use Doctson as an intersting prospect to finish off a larger deal this offseason rather than trying to get a straight up draft pick for him--now that the Combine is almost upon us, its probably too late for that move to work out.
As a Redskins fan, I have to say that I haven't seen him flash very often. Given how much people like Gruden's passing offense and how much they like Cousins in general, that's not a good sign. Especially since Doctson came in kinda over-aged and seemingly "ready to play". He had the injury that screwed up his rookie year, but even this year he didn't impress me much.
That doesn't necessarily mean he's a bust. Davante Adams took a few years, with a much better QB and better WR teammates to learn from. He was younger, but still.
Either way, I'd be trying to use Doctson as an intersting prospect to finish off a larger deal this offseason rather than trying to get a straight up draft pick for him--now that the Combine is almost upon us, its probably too late for that move to work out.
Last edited by a moderator:
Matt's Eagles
Footballguy
Who would you rather target Dez or Alshon in PPR?
bostonfred
Footballguy
If you get a dez vote from a guy whose username doesn't actually include the word dez, let me know.
Soulfly3
Footballguy
One More Rep
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Well if we are talking about which we'd rather have it's probably Alshon. If we are talking about which we'd rather target/buy at their buying price then it's Dez easy for me because they are similar guys coming off of similarly bad seasons with similar recent injury history at a similar age but one guy is way way way cheaper than the other.
I'd much rather have WR28 for an early/mid 2nd than WR25 for an early/mid 1st.
I'd much rather have WR28 for an early/mid 2nd than WR25 for an early/mid 1st.
Last edited by a moderator:
Snorkelson
Footballguy
One guy has appreciated in value despite his poor showing in a very good pass offense. Wonde what the future holds for dez. Can’t imagine him in another uniform, but can’t see him taking a pay cut or the ‘boys paying him what he’s slated to make this year. Jerry Jones has kind of paid his vets in the past though.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Tell me if I’m off on these valuations in terms of rookie picks. Assume 12 team/ppr/1/2/3/1/1/1/1
Baldwin- late 1st
marvin Jones- early 2
cj anderson- late 2/early3
shaheen- early-mid 2
gronk- late 1
lockett- late 2
ebron- mid 2
dak- late 1? Early 2?
Baldwin- late 1st
marvin Jones- early 2
cj anderson- late 2/early3
shaheen- early-mid 2
gronk- late 1
lockett- late 2
ebron- mid 2
dak- late 1? Early 2?
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Ones that stand out to me. High on Shaheen, Ebron and Dak. Low on Gronk and Baldwin.
Last edited by a moderator:
Similar threads
