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RB Derrius Guice, Free Agent (4 Viewers)

DERRIUS GUICE RB, WASHINGTON REDSKINS

In a Combine interview with ESPN's Matthew Berry, Redskins coach Ron Rivera said he expects Derrius Guice, Adrian Peterson, and Bryce Love to all have a role this year.

Rivera noted that before Carolina landed Christian McCaffrey, he had always been the type of coach to lean on multiple backs. Guice was explosive (42/254/2, 5.83 YPC) in his five-game trial run last year but remains a perpetual question mark following multiple knee injuries to both legs. With Chris Thompson unlikely to return in free agency, 22-year-old Guice should still receive the first crack on passing downs while Peterson shores up the team's goal line work. Love is an intriguing stash in dynasty formats.

SOURCE: ESPN.com

Mar 3, 2020, 11:48 AM ET
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A healthy Guice can easily be a top 15 RB.  Healthy being the key.  Hopefully last year's issues can be attributed to coming back a little too quick.  His energy is needed by the team.

 
Dr. Dan said:
This is why I had a tough time moving Guice. I think he could be in for an huge rebound. The only issue is that if he can stay healthy, which is a legitimate concern. 
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Relatively same boat, 2 person keeper league.  Keep DJ for a 6th or Guice for a 12th.  Guice looked really good once he came back healthy and one has to think the offense should click a little better with McLaurin and Haskins in year two.  I heard somewhere that McLaurin and Haskins went to the same college.... could be good.   :whistle:

 
Tool said:
Ridiculous 
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I don't think this article is saying Guice will be CMC, but it's pointing out the obvious- Rivera likes to throw to his RBs. Some RB on the Redskins will be involved in the passing game. Guice has the best skill set there today. In my opinion, that raises his floor. Still, there are major concerns about his ability to stay healthy. One more injury, even a 3-4 week one, likely seals the deal of him being unable to stay healthy

 
Dr. Dan said:
He had major issues at draft time. He failed many teams physicals. He had a worse situation than Guices infection. Maybe not as threatening (Guice could have lost his leg), but worse from a physical standpoint as Guices infection did not impact his graft. 
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Amazing that they drafted him in the 4th after all that. Hard to say it’s the Redskins  - they did score big with McLaurin when all other teams passed on him multiple times.

 
Dr. Dan said:
He had major issues at draft time. He failed many teams physicals.
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Can you find me an article citing he failed a physical? I recall teams were concerned he had knee stiffness and might need additional surgery but he blew his ACL in December so expectation was he'd miss year. Obviously he had more then a routine healing process in his knee but I can't recall anyone saying he failed a physical.

zamboni said:
Amazing that they drafted him in the 4th after all that. Hard to say it’s the Redskins  - they did score big with McLaurin when all other teams passed on him multiple times.
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Well the doctor who performed his operation is James Andrews who is a Redkins team doctor so it's not like they went into the situation blindly. Not saying they even were 100% sure he'd recover but he's someone they might have had a second round grade on and felt worth the risk but they had to have some degree of optimism.

But it's been hard grasping for updates I can trust on his recovery. Matt Berry tried to claim he heard great things about him at the combine but Berry struck me as trying to be an NFL Insider when he's not. Read and article just two days ago that said his recovery was still a process so not ideal. The worst thing I probably read, and this is not exactly peachy for Guice either, was two different Redskins beat writers claim from a reliable source the team is legit interested in Kenyan Drake.

 
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Dr. Dan said:
I dont mean to overexaggerate, but I remember reading Loves knee was a complete mess... that he couldnt even straighten it at one point. That's a year ago though and I did not save any of those articles. 
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The knee stiffness is in line with what I read from multiple outlets.

Not ideal but I always was more on positive side because of the James Andrews connection. Have not given up hope yet.

 
Dr. Dan said:
Didnt Andrews operate on Guices knee? 

I just saw Andrews speak... really interesting
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Andrews operated on the entire backfield, at least those under contract.

I know Andrews wrote a letter to NFL teams at the draft about Love. Has he said something since?

 
This is all I could find on Love and the combine last year...

 Moving forward, it’s unclear what Love’s rehab schedule will look like. NFL Network reported back in April that some teams had concerns over Love’s injury and lingering knee stiffness. One source explained that Love’s medicals from the NFL Scouting Combine revealed that some doctors believed another surgery would be necessary. 

from here:

https://www.hogshaven.com/2019/10/22/20926326/redskins-injury-update-bryce-love-needs-another-knee-surgery

 
I-ROK said:
I don't think this article is saying Guice will be CMC, but it's pointing out the obvious- Rivera likes to throw to his RBs. Some RB on the Redskins will be involved in the passing game. Guice has the best skill set there today. In my opinion, that raises his floor. Still, there are major concerns about his ability to stay healthy. One more injury, even a 3-4 week one, likely seals the deal of him being unable to stay healthy
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Its just a dumb comparison done for click bait purposes. McCaffrey caught 116 passes last year. Why not just say he’s going to catch more passes. But this is the bs media age we live in.

 
zamboni said:
Amazing that they drafted him in the 4th after all that. Hard to say it’s the Redskins  - they did score big with McLaurin when all other teams passed on him multiple times.
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It's not just the fact they spent a 4th, it's the fact they passed on Justice Hill/Tony Pollard at RB and Mack Wilson at LB. For that matter given the Redskins needs I would have taken a long look at both Riley Ridley(WR) and Amani Oruwariye(CB) though neither one of them had the impact I suspected they would. It was certainly an odd pick for guys on the hot seat that ultimately got fired.

 
If he can remain healthy, Guice is a top 12 back.  Hope to be able to delete those first 5 words at the end of next season.

 
Guice had his best rushing day as a pro vs. Carolina last year who got gashed by everyone by the end of the year because of their switch to a 3-4 that nobody got and personnel that wasn't good. On his big run, he was nearly caught by three guys trailing him with no angle. He was hurt half of the year, and then promptly got hurt a game later.

I have since traded him in dynasty for dimes on the dollar, according to his valuation by fantasy experts and ADP, and I'm content I've done right. 

My opinion: He's spent. 

But the addition of Barber gives one hope. He's not a very good back, IMHO.  PFF grades him at about at 65 percent, much lower than Guice's 75. 

 
You know he's a big injury risk, but if you own or are buying, this is exactly what you want the fantasy world thinking. Holding as my RB 2/3 with Ekeler.

 
Starting to look for buying opportunities as we hit the post-draft lull and training camp (or reasonable facsimile thereof) and I think Guice looks like a buy. Most rankers see him between 25-25 overall. High risk due to injury, but cost is very low. 

He's not looking at anything other than a collection of replacement level guys (yes, ADP is now a JAG) and Rivera likes to run. 

 
Ack88 said:
He's not looking at anything other than a collection of replacement level guys (yes, ADP is now a JAG) and Rivera likes to run. 
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To this I would say other than Peterson we aren't really sure about any of them, including Guice, maybe JAGs or replacement level talents or maybe good. There's some reason to to think Guice is better than Love or Gibson, but only from 42 NFL carries. They all have sort of similar draft capital without much experience; imo this backfield is sort of up for grabs with a new coaching staff who just brought in a 3rd rounder. Not saying Guice won't win the job but not a given. 

 
Derrius Guice 2020 Outlook: Is This Finally The Year?

Washington Redskins running back Derrius Guice will be entering his third professional season in 2020, but has played in just five games in his career so far. Multiple injuries to both of his knees have sidelined the former LSU star throughout his NFL tenure, but he's shows explosiveness and tons of talent the few times he's been on the field. In his five-game 2019 season, Guice averaged 5.83 yards per carry and caught seven passes for 79 yards. He'll have Adrian Peterson and Bryce Love to compete with in Washington, and rookie Antonio Gibson will likely get some snaps in the backfield as well. It's a crowded situation, and there's huge injury risk, but if you're willing to bet on talent, Guice still has plenty of it.--David A Marcillo - RotoBaller
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ffmail4me said:
In the same way we better hope Brees makes his team I guess....
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The people who drafted Guice and his VIP status down at the Urgent Care facility are gone.  The team that is there signed JD McKissic, Peyton Barber, and drafted Antonio Gibson. 

Guice is gonna need to come into camp healthy, in shape, and blow doors off, because injured guys with upside get coaches fired.  

His injury history is not a negative, it's a major, major problem. 

 
massraider said:
The people who drafted Guice and his VIP status down at the Urgent Care facility are gone.  The team that is there signed JD McKissic, Peyton Barber, and drafted Antonio Gibson. 

Guice is gonna need to come into camp healthy, in shape, and blow doors off, because injured guys with upside get coaches fired.  

His injury history is not a negative, it's a major, major problem. 
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McKissic and Barber are highly unlikely to both make the team, if either do. Gibson might not even be a RB. 

Right now, that backfield is Guice, Love, Peterson, and 1 more guy, who might be a healthy scratch, or its Gibson, and Peterson is a healthy scratch/insurance policy. 

Guice has struggled with injuries, but his talent is so far ahead of those other guys its crazy. 0% chance he wouldn't make the team. 

 
travdogg said:
McKissic and Barber are highly unlikely to both make the team, if either do. Gibson might not even be a RB. 

Right now, that backfield is Guice, Love, Peterson, and 1 more guy, who might be a healthy scratch, or its Gibson, and Peterson is a healthy scratch/insurance policy. 

Guice has struggled with injuries, but his talent is so far ahead of those other guys its crazy. 0% chance he wouldn't make the team. 
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My opinion is the two bolded are competing with McKissic and Barber for roster spots.  The only two RB's I feel are locks to make make this team, barring a trade, would be Guice and Gibson.

Love is actually the one I'd put the lowest odds on of being on active roster to start the season, whether that's cut or put on IR/PUP.  Updates on him, other then from him, have been hard to come but signing the old retreads and committing a high pick on a guy it sure sounds like they are going to line up at RB does not really make me optimistic on Love's knee recovery. And I got Love on some teams, even short roster teams where I carved out a spot for him. Viewed him as a potential high upside gamble but my belief right now is it's a gamble I'm going to lose.

 
massraider said:
The people who drafted Guice and his VIP status down at the Urgent Care facility are gone.  The team that is there signed JD McKissic, Peyton Barber, and drafted Antonio Gibson. 

Guice is gonna need to come into camp healthy, in shape, and blow doors off, because injured guys with upside get coaches fired.  

His injury history is not a negative, it's a major, major problem. 
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Agree 100%, but his talent, and the middling competition make him an attractive buy. He's of virtually no cost right now but has the ability to be a legit RB2. Again, a big if- but the skill set is there. He's outside many top 30 lists, which makes him a target for me.

 
travdogg said:
McKissic and Barber are highly unlikely to both make the team, if either do. Gibson might not even be a RB. 

Right now, that backfield is Guice, Love, Peterson, and 1 more guy, who might be a healthy scratch, or its Gibson, and Peterson is a healthy scratch/insurance policy. 

Guice has struggled with injuries, but his talent is so far ahead of those other guys its crazy. 0% chance he wouldn't make the team. 
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I'm not betting against Guice's talent. 

But betting against [new coaching staff/3 backs THEY bring in/3 left knee injuries]  doesn't look appetizing. 

 
Ack88 said:
Agree 100%, but his talent, and the middling competition make him an attractive buy. He's of virtually no cost right now but has the ability to be a legit RB2. Again, a big if- but the skill set is there. He's outside many top 30 lists, which makes him a target for me.
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I'm always a little cautious taking guys based on situation/opportunities alone, though. It's pretty hard to gauge where his talent really is after so many injuries because he's been on the field so infrequently. We have really only seen very small glimpses of him competing in the NFL. 

Even if you think Gibson is more WR than RB, and you think Peterson is about to tumble off a cliff(which might be more likely than not), and Love ends up a "never-was" in the NFL, and etc, etc..... I'm not so certain that even if ALL that was true a FA like Carlos Hyde or Lamar Miller or Devonta Freeman wouldn't be just as likely to lead the Redskins in rushing as Guice if any of those guys were signed. Not saying all those guys are as dynamic as Guice BEFORE his injuries but we don't really have any idea how the Guice injuries are starting to compound.

As always I guess it just comes down to price and roster size. 

 
Is Terry McLaurin the only player worth trusting on this Washington team?

Excerpt:

Derrius Guice is clearly an injury risk. Do you still see enough upside to consider taking the plunge at his current Yahoo ADP of 95.1?

Dalton: With Chris Thompson gone and 35-year-old Adrian Peterson (and his 3,000+ career carries) his main competition for backfield touches, Guice is worth the gamble. He no doubt seems like a long shot to stay healthy, but Sports Injury Predictor projects Dalvin Cook to miss more games in 2020 (and projects Peterson to miss the most among all RBs), and Guice has looked special at times when actually on the field. Guice is still just 22 years old (same age as Josh Jacobs), so I’m buying the talent and frankly think Washington’s backfield is being misidentified as crowded when in fact it’s thin (Bryce Love has undergone multiple knee surgeries, while Peyton Barber just finished last in rush DVOA by a mile).

Matt: A likely committee back playing on an offense that is unlikely to be a top-20 unit is not what I’d call a good bet for upside. Derrius Guice may well be a good back; he’s given us evidence in small glimpses that’s the case. However, unless Adrian Peterson exits the picture, Guice is unlikely to own the early down work. Antonio Gibson seems to be the first in line for passing game duties based on his college profile. Middling veteran Peyton Barber is also in the mix. And again, this split is all going to take place while tethered to a passing offense that’s still trying to find itself. Guice is going so low in drafts he’s hardly someone I absolutely must talk you out of selecting. Me personally, I usually wait for the folks who draft these players to lose patience with them early in the year before trying to acquire them via trades or waivers, rather than taking them in August when the picture isn’t clear.

Liz: Coach Rivera has been open about his plans to implement a shared backfield. That doesn’t mean, however, that Guice can’t lead Washington’s cadre of RBs. His main competition is a 35-year-old vet, a second-year player who’s similarly endured numerous knee surgeries — but has yet to see a single snap in the pros — and a rookie.

After returning from injury in 2019, and over the last four games of the season, the LSU standout scored 3 TDs and posted two top-twenty finishes. Most of that production came in Week 13 against Carolina’s generous run defense (which allowed the fourth-most rushing yards on the season), but it’s also worth noting that Guice evaded an average of 3.4 tackles per game while on the field.

The talent is there. Assuming health throughout the summer and preseason, the opportunity will also be there. At least at the top of the season. It is entirely possible that he won’t stay healthy or that Antonio Gibson will eat into his volume as the year wears on, but given his RB3 draft value and ability to produce out of the gate ... the risk remains minimal.
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He's another one that's tough to figure. 

I love the talent.  Loved him 2 years ago before the injury.  Have turned down dynasty offers for him.  Now, 2 years removed from the ACL injury, he should be able to show out.  I'm going to assume a lot of it was downstream effects of the ACL.

But you have to bet on A LOT for him to hit.  He has to remain healthy.  He has to get significant carries coming out of a backfield with ridiculous depth.  The talent is there, and the cream often rises to the top.  But what's the top of a backfield with Antionio Gipson, Adrian Peterson, Bryce Love?  I'll be surprised if he hits 240-250 carries even if he's fully healthy.

He is good receiver out of the backfield.  And the Redskins will be behind a lot.  He may pick up some value in the receiving game. It's a situation to monitor in the pre-season, camp, etc.  But right now it's just hard to love the guy. 

He's going ~74-76 in non-ppr, 80 in PPR.  You're talking early to late 7th round.  That's a good spot to grab a QB like Ryan or Brees.  Tyler Boyd and Brandin Cooks are going around there.  Damien Williams and Dobbins are going around there.  A couple rounds later, and I'd be more interested.  Where he's at, he's a 5$ scratch-off with the chance to win 25$

 
jm192 said:
He's another one that's tough to figure. 

I love the talent.  Loved him 2 years ago before the injury.  Have turned down dynasty offers for him.  Now, 2 years removed from the ACL injury, he should be able to show out.  I'm going to assume a lot of it was downstream effects of the ACL.

But you have to bet on A LOT for him to hit.  He has to remain healthy.  He has to get significant carries coming out of a backfield with ridiculous depth.  The talent is there, and the cream often rises to the top.  But what's the top of a backfield with Antionio Gipson, Adrian Peterson, Bryce Love?  I'll be surprised if he hits 240-250 carries even if he's fully healthy.

He is good receiver out of the backfield.  And the Redskins will be behind a lot.  He may pick up some value in the receiving game. It's a situation to monitor in the pre-season, camp, etc.  But right now it's just hard to love the guy. 

He's going ~74-76 in non-ppr, 80 in PPR.  You're talking early to late 7th round.  That's a good spot to grab a QB like Ryan or Brees.  Tyler Boyd and Brandin Cooks are going around there.  Damien Williams and Dobbins are going around there.  A couple rounds later, and I'd be more interested.  Where he's at, he's a 5$ scratch-off with the chance to win 25$
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Reading all that he looks like a great value in redraft. If he’s healthy he will put up good numbers. A mediocre qb or wr3 isn’t worth much.

 
johnnyboy8102 said:
Has anyone completed a deal to acquire him in dynasty? What did you offer? 
 

Having a hard time gauging his value. 
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I overpaid a bit because I was 8-9 deep at WR and had only Zeke at RB at the time before moving up in the draft to get CEH/Taylor but this was my deal:

Brandin Cooks and late 2nd (pick 16 I believe) for just Guice

Maybe not great value but I needed RBs badly

 
KChusker said:
I overpaid a bit because I was 8-9 deep at WR and had only Zeke at RB at the time before moving up in the draft to get CEH/Taylor but this was my deal:

Brandin Cooks and late 2nd (pick 16 I believe) for just Guice

Maybe not great value but I needed RBs badly
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Worth it. Guice's upside is huge IF he stays healthy... 

 
  • Smile
Reactions: Ned
In another league (10 team PPR) I was offered a 2021 2nd from the team that finished in last place last year. This could be the 11th/12th pick. 
 

I picked Guice at 11 in 2018. I am seriously contemplating cutting my losses at this point. It’s a risk but if he face plants again this year he will be worthless to get value back next off season. 
 

I am looking to acquire him in other leagues but this situation has me thinking. Anyone else in a similar boat? 

 
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