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RB Chris Carson, SEA - 10.7.21 - Neck Issue (4 Viewers)

Stompin' Tom Connors said:
27/118 rush; 1/5/1 receiving. 

Centerpiece of the game and arguably the offense.

Penny was 6/18, 2/31 and only brought in to run on two series when Carson was gassed. Used on a swing pass or two on passing downs, had one nice catch down the right sideline for a big gain. But not a factor whatsoever in terms of Carroll “working Penny in” or being a “threat to Carson’s touches.”

If we’re looking hard for flaws, Carson isn’t really part of the pass game - seems to run a route to the flat and simply fade out of the play, but these seemed designed to take a linebacker or safety out of the middle or to the other side of the field from where the play was going. He also bobbled his TD catch and nearly dropped it. But you know what? He didn’t. Reeled in the winning score.

Hawks are 4-1 leaning heavily on Carson. That’s their standard run-first game plan, and it’s run through Carson. 

Stud with a capital S.
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I think they were trying to get him involved, but it looked like a real effort by the Rams defense to cover him tight out of the backfield.

Hard running tonight. They should have given him the chance to salt it away on that 3rd & 2. They were lucky to come away with the win.

 
Chris Carson rushed 27 times for 118 yards in the Seahawks' Week 5 win over the Rams, adding a five-yard touchdown reception.

Carson's fourth quarter score was one of only two targets in the passing game. All alone in the end zone, he nearly bobbled the pass out of bounds. He held on and had a good laugh. Doing his best Marshawn Lynch impression, Carson was once again dragging tacklers with angry running. He has put a lid on his fumbling narrative with back-to-back elite performances. Week 6 opponent Cleveland is softer on the ground than through the air.
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Dizzy said:
I think they were trying to get him involved, but it looked like a real effort by the Rams defense to cover him tight out of the backfield.

Hard running tonight. They should have given him the chance to salt it away on that 3rd & 2. They were lucky to come away with the win.
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Perhaps - certainly the 2-3 times when Carson could have been a check-down option Russell didn’t have time or was flushed.

That said I didn’t see any specifically drawn screens or swings Carson’s way, and the times he was sent in the flat almost seemed to be designed to target crosses or hooks over the middle, to draw down one of the two bracket-covering Lockett on the sideline, or for Russell to run for short gain.

The TD pass was more luck than anything. And you are definitely right that was a lucky win by the Hawks. Their D couldn’t stop the Rams - particularly Everett - and it was Greg the Leg that really won it for them. 

Very entertaining game with great performances on both sides.

 
TheDirtyWord said:
That was about as emphatic a ‘this backfield belongs to Carson’ game as you’re going to get.
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As long as it's not 4th and 1 on the opponents 30 yard line when you have all the momentum in the world and are in mid-curbstomp. Or 3rd and 2 to ice the game at the end. WR option was it?

Just kidding obviously his backfield but damn. 

 
As for his involvement in the passing game, I really think Wilson prefers downfield throws on the run over little checkdowns. I think there are times he really should throw short but doesn't. But he is also one of the greatest deep throwers on the run so.........

 
barackdhouse said:
As long as it's not 4th and 1 on the opponents 30 yard line when you have all the momentum in the world and are in mid-curbstomp. Or 3rd and 2 to ice the game at the end. WR option was it?

Just kidding obviously his backfield but damn. 
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I honestly think Carroll does that on purpose to build up retroactive use cases he can point to and continue to deflect blame for not using Marshawn at the goal line in the most crucial moment in the biggest game.

”See? I always try these dumb counterintuitive plays!”

 
Have the laugh at The Huddle's analysis of last night's performance:

Huddle Up: After averaging just 53 yards rushing over his first three games (and fumbling in each of them), Carson has bounced back to tote the rock 49 times for 222 yards in a five-day span. He almost botched a fourth-down TD pass from Wilson but was able to catch his own carom to avert disaster. Back on track, Carson is a borderline top-20 fantasy back moving forward.
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🙄

 
 Talk about tough to tackle… He was balling out last night, and apparently when Clay Matthews tried to bring him down towards the end of the game he suffered a broken jaw as a result. 

 How a guy breaks a job wearing a helmet is a mystery to me, but it’s apparently possible.   :o  

 i’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again… Anyone calling Chris Carson a JAG should delete their account. 

Rams OLB Clay Matthews is expected to miss four weeks with a broken jaw.

Matthews was injured making a tackle on Chris Carson Thursday night. He'll undergo surgery and miss at least the next month. Matthews was on track for career highs before going down, posting six sacks and 19 tackles over five games. Losing Matthews is a huge blow to the Rams pass rush. Samson Ebukam will start on the weakside until Matthews returns.
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need2know said:
wtf  else does he need to do to show hes a rb1?
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I'm not sure there are 10 RB's I'd rather own going forward.

Johnson, CMC, Chubb, Zeke, Cook, Kamara, Barkley(once he's back), Bell(once Darnold is back) are pretty much it.

Carson is part of the next group with Mack, Fournette, Henry, and Kerryon for me. Maybe Gordon is in there as well?

I'd certainly rather have Carson than Conner or Gurley, who went quite a bit earlier than him this year in my leagues.

 
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travdogg said:
I'm not sure there are 10 RB's I'd rather own going forward.

Johnson, CMC, Chubb, Zeke, Cook, Kamara, Barkley(once he's back), Bell(once Darnold is back) are pretty much it.

Carson is part of the next group with Mack, Fournette, Henry, and Kerryon for me. Maybe Gordon is in there as well?

I'd certainly rather have Carson than Conner or Gurley, who went quite a bit earlier than him this year in my leagues.
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I’m surprised Johnson still gets lumped into that top tier.  It’s been some time since he’s been ‘that guy’.

 I’d put him in that 2nd tier you mentioned.

 
TheDirtyWord said:
I’m surprised Johnson still gets lumped into that top tier.  It’s been some time since he’s been ‘that guy’.

 I’d put him in that 2nd tier you mentioned.
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Johnson has been RB7 so far(ahead of Elliott) despite missing half of week 2.  Cards have also likely just played the hardest 4-game stretch of their schedule. 

I'll be the first to call Johnson a middling runner(and have in the Johnson thread) but he's as good as it gets as a pass catcher, and he has 6 or more catches in every game this year, except the one he missed half of. Its uglier than in 2016, but he's likely going to be a top-5 RB at year's end. He's currently on pace for 792 yards and 4 TD's rushing(sure to go up) and 84-728-8 receiving, which sounds reasonable. 1,500+ yards and 12 TD's, with 84 catches is a solid RB1 in my eyes.

 
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killface said:
what a stud...actually watched him the last two weeks.  Great rb
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He’s literally running through people the last two weeks.  not the shiftiest guy out there, but he’s a damn good RB

 
joffer said:
He’s literally running through people the last two weeks.  not the shiftiest guy out there, but he’s a damn good RB
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Actually, at least last night, I was (pleasantly) surprised at his stop/start ability.

travdogg said:
Johnson has been RB7 so far(ahead of Elliott) despite missing half of week 2.  Cards have also likely just played the hardest 4-game stretch of their schedule. 

I'll be the first to call Johnson a middling runner(and have in the Johnson thread) but he's as good as it gets as a pass catcher, and he has 6 or more catches in every game this year, except the one he missed half of. Its uglier than in 2016, but he's likely going to be a top-5 RB at year's end. He's currently on pace for 792 yards and 4 TD's rushing(sure to go up) and 84-728-8 receiving, which sounds reasonable. 1,500+ yards and 12 TD's, with 84 catches is a solid RB1 in my eyes.
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Since the start of 2018:

Johnson 20G: 305/1113/8 & 71/628/5

Carson 19G: 341/1531/10 & 35/268/2

 
TheDirtyWord said:
Since the start of 2018:

Johnson 20G: 305/1113/8 & 71/628/5

Carson 19G: 341/1531/10 & 35/268/2
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I'm not sure 2018 has any relevance for Johnson. That was a historically bad offense, In fact it was the first offense since the 1977 Bucs, to finish dead last in passing yards, rushing yards, and points scored. I don't think any RB in the NFL could have put up top-5 numbers in it. Huh, really didn't think I'd be defending David Johnson today.

I do like Carson quite a bit. He kind of reminds me of DeMarco Murray minus the breakaway speed. I agree that his start/stop ability is very underrated.

 
travdogg said:
I'm not sure 2018 has any relevance for Johnson. That was a historically bad offense, In fact it was the first offense since the 1977 Bucs, to finish dead last in passing yards, rushing yards, and points scored. I don't think any RB in the NFL could have put up top-5 numbers in it. Huh, really didn't think I'd be defending David Johnson today.

I do like Carson quite a bit. He kind of reminds me of DeMarco Murray minus the breakaway speed. I agree that his start/stop ability is very underrated.
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Guess I’d simply put Johnson in the same group as Carson and the other RB’s you mentioned.  

 
TheDirtyWord said:
Actually, at least last night, I was (pleasantly) surprised at his stop/start ability.
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Towards the end he was working a stutter step / hesitation move - defenses were crashing the line at the snap, and he’d pump the brakes ala LBell, then burst past them. It was super effective. 

 
In early FFPC $35 best ball drafts, I drafted C Carson 2 times in the 4th round and once at the end of the
3rd. I took R Penny in the 6th(all 3). In the one league I didn't take him, he went 7.10. R Penny went 7.11.

Edit. These are the 28 round drafts.
   

 
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I took him with the 32nd pick in a non-ppr 12 team redraft league.  I thought I had a steal at the time.  Then for 2 weeks wondered.  Now I'm back to thinking I got a steal.  LOL

 
Jamesinaz said:
I took him with the 32nd pick in a non-ppr 12 team redraft league.  I thought I had a steal at the time.  Then for 2 weeks wondered.  Now I'm back to thinking I got a steal.  LOL
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Late August PPR draft, I got him at 4.05, so 41st overall. 

While IDP; no defensive players had been selected.

worked out well since I went WR-WR-WR-RB-RB-WR. 

Loving the value. I wanted him or Mack. Mocking often from that spot going WR-heavy one of Carson or Mack fell to me every time. Carson was my preferred pick of the two. Know the consensus probably liked Mack more. But talk of increased receptions had me salivating.

I don’t understand the Penny love. He looks indecisive & lacks power. Goes down like a sack of potatoes at first contact. He looked as surprised by his deep reception as anyone on TNF lol

the first few weeks Carson was very involved in the passing game as well. TNF I saw at least two plays that appeared to be designed to throw to Carson, but the Rams relentless pressure caused Wilson to change direction/throw it away. 

I saw a comment above about being crazy to take him as a top 10 in PPR if we drafted today. Why?  

Against less capable pass rushing defenses I think Carson catches enough to be an elite PPR RB this year. Carrol was talking 50 receptions for him. 

So far we have 

Week 1 - 7 targets, 6 receptions, 34 yards, 1 ReTD

Week 2 - 3 tar, 3 rec, 27 yards

Week 3 - 1 far, 1 rec, -1 yard (against a tough saints D)

Week 4 - 4 tar, 4 rec, 41 yards

Week 5 - 2 tar, 1 rec, 5 yards, 1 TD

Right now Carson is 12th in receptions -  granted he’s got one more game under his belt so that’ll probably drop after the weekend, but  I can also see him closing the gap as he’s used more going forward. Not every week will be against the Rams, who got to Wilson several times before he could get the ball out. Carson should have had 5-6 targets, not the 2 he had. 

He’s at 15 receptions on 17 targets through 5 weeks. (88%). That projects to 48 catches on 54 targets for 336 yards with ~6.4 ReTDs.

His career % is close to this (85%), so I don’t see that as unrealistic. 

I’m even kinda optimistic that he’ll exceed that on-pace total. Especially with games coming up against TB, ATL & AZ. He has yet to break a really long one, but we all know those are a little flukey - it’ll likely happen at some point. 

And even if he doesn’t, 48 receptions, plus yards & TDs plus his rushing yards, and the fact that he’s the goal line back?  

Well why wouldn’t he be too 10 PPR if we drafted today?  :shrug:

 
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I sold in dynasty for Hunt and Thielen. With that style the guy will get hurt. And almost lost another fumble. And has a first round RB who’s flashed breathing down his neck. I’m good with it

 
JetMaxx said:
I sold in dynasty for Hunt and Thielen. With that style the guy will get hurt. And almost lost another fumble. And has a first round RB who’s flashed breathing down his neck. I’m good with it
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Penny is barely breathing, much less down his neck. 

Hard to predict injury - Power backs usually end up hurting other people (see: clay matthews broken jaw) 

and I think you mean to say he didn’t fumble at all, despite a defender trying to rip it out. I saw that play - Carson deserves credit for not fumbling that. You can’t both rip the guy when he fumbles and also rip him when he doesn’t fumble. An “almost fumble” is a good play. The defenders get paid too, right? 

 I wouldn’t trade him for Hunt & Thielen right now even if Hunt weren’t suspended. But each to their own. 

 
need2know said:
sounds like nothing to me
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For a player to start the week with FP and not be on the injury list, to designated out of the blue as LP on a Thursday?

That's not as if they are giving him rest from the pounding he took -- otherwise would be out/limited in early week practices and back in the swing later in the week. This is decidedly off-trend.

It's may not be "something," but it certainly isn't nothing.

Hoping to see either FP today, or news that they were giving him some veteran rest and he's expected to be a full-go.

 
Stompin' Tom Connors said:
For a player to start the week with FP and not be on the injury list, to designated out of the blue as LP on a Thursday?

That's not as if they are giving him rest from the pounding he took -- otherwise would be out/limited in early week practices and back in the swing later in the week. This is decidedly off-trend.

It's may not be "something," but it certainly isn't nothing.

Hoping to see either FP today, or news that they were giving him some veteran rest and he's expected to be a full-go.
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One of the things they mentioned as to why they didn’t think his shoulder was much of an issue is despite the LP, they didn’t limit media access to Carson.  That evidently has been one of SEA’s tells.

 
TheDirtyWord said:
One of the things they mentioned as to why they didn’t think his shoulder was much of an issue is despite the LP, they didn’t limit media access to Carson.  That evidently has been one of SEA’s tells.
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Hmm...

SEA and Carroll -- one of the more inscrutable "coach-speak" coaches -- has a tell, eh?

Very interesting.... 

 
Rotoworld:

Chris Carson (shoulder) wasn't listed on the Seahawks' final injury report.

Carson is good to go for Sunday's matchup against the Browns. Rashaad Penny (hamstring) is questionable. Carson (84% snap rate, 27 carries, 2 targets) worked well ahead of Penny (16%, 6, 2) in Week 5 anyway. Carson is too good (as long as he's not fumbling) to keep off the field. Only Alvin Kamara (38 broken tackles) and Christian McCaffrey (35) have made more defenders miss than Carson (32) through five weeks.

SOURCE: John Boyle on Twitter.

Oct 11, 2019, 4:28 PM ET
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Chris Carson rushed 24 times for 124 yards and a touchdown in the Seahawks' Week 6 win over the Browns, adding four receptions for 35 additional yards.

Carson has now cleared 100 yards in all three games since the Seahawks doubled down on him following his fumbling issues. He has averaged 27 touches in the process, and it hasn't mattered whether Rashaad Penny has played or sat. Carson should keep eating when the Seahawks host the diminished Ravens for Week 8.
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Looking at Carson's upcoming schedule against a string of brutal run defenses:

week 9 TB (#1 run D)

week 10 SF  (#12 run D)

week 11 BYE

week 12 PHI  (#2 run D)

week 13 MIN  (#4 run D)

Anyone else thinking of trading him now?  And what do we think we could get for him?  I wonder if I package Carson and, say, McClaurin, if I could get a top 6 RB?

 
Truebluey said:
Looking at Carson's upcoming schedule against a string of brutal run defenses:

week 9 TB (#1 run D)

week 10 SF  (#12 run D)

week 11 BYE

week 12 PHI  (#2 run D)

week 13 MIN  (#4 run D)

Anyone else thinking of trading him now?  And what do we think we could get for him?  I wonder if I package Carson and, say, McClaurin, if I could get a top 6 RB?
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IMO if just McLaurin then maaaaybe you’d get Aaron Jones from a panicking owner. Ingram from someone in need of a WR. At least in my leagues where name values outweigh production at times. 

 
Truebluey said:
Looking at Carson's upcoming schedule against a string of brutal run defenses:

week 9 TB (#1 run D)
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Rankings can be misleading.  TB is a top run defense because teams have been passing all over them. It skews the numbers. 

They were also getting unreal play from their LBs the first few weeks, especially Barrett. He’s been banged up & his play tanked the last two weeks. 

week 10 SF  (#12 run D)

week 11 BYE

week 12 PHI  (#2 run D)

week 13 MIN  (#4 run D)
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All legitimately tough run defenses.

but it’s not like Carson hasn’t faced any tough run defenses to date. CLE was supposed to be a tough test & Carson shredded them. 

Anyone else thinking of trading him now?  And what do we think we could get for him?  I wonder if I package Carson and, say, McClaurin, if I could get a top 6 RB?
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possible, sure. Bird in the hand is valuable too. Carson’s been my most dependable player the last few weeks. I’m inclined to hang onto him & see if he can finish top 6. 

unless it’s a buy-low on a hurt Kamara or package Carson with someone better to get a CMC, Chubb or Cook, I’m not sure I’d more him.

Of the current “top 6” PPR backs Eckeler appears to be dropping off the face of the Earth, Fournette is difficult to project going forward & a huge health risk, David Johnson is banged up, Aaron Jones appears to be embroiled in a RBBC (and squarely in the doghouse after fumbling l, then later dropping that duck TD) and Ingram is pretty inconsistent, depending on which position his QB feels like playing that day.  

I don’t think I’d want any of those guys over Carson right now.  So if you’re aiming high at Cook, Kamara, Chubb or CMC, go for it.

 
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