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RB Chris Carson, SEA - 10.7.21 - Neck Issue (1 Viewer)

The pass protection cannot be overlooked.  I constantly see Carson coming up to the right blitzer and delivering big hits.  I saw Penny miss several.
Last year PFF gave Carson a pass block grade of 62.4 and gave Penny a pass block grade of 72.4.  Carson received a pass block grade of 44.9 in 2017 in a limited role.  I no longer subscribe to PFF so I'm not sure what their grades are this year.
PFF pass blocking data this season:

  • Carson 59.2 grade; 9 pressures allowed (2 sacks, 1 hit, 6 hurries) in 66 pass blocking snaps (13.6%)
  • Penny 56.4 grade; 1 pressure allowed (1 sack) in 8 pass blocking snaps (12.5%)
Also, looking at Carson's career grades, including all regular and postseason games:

  • 2017: 44.9 in 17 pass blocking snaps
  • 2018: 60.2 in 31 pass blocking snaps - not sure why there is a difference between this grade and the one posted by @Don Hutson
This data does not support the notion that Carson is a much better pass blocker.

 
Basically, it feels like a few posters are committed to their stances on Carson and Penny. That's fine. The next game will tell us more, and we will quickly have a chance to tell if they are correct to be dug in.

 
  • 2017: 44.9 in 17 pass blocking snaps
  • 2018: 60.2 in 31 pass blocking snaps - not sure why there is a difference between this grade and the one posted by @Don Hutson
This data does not support the notion that Carson is a much better pass blocker.
I know that PFF changed their grading methodology a year or two ago.  They actually went back and changed all of their grades from the previous year during one offseason.  It was in either 2017 or 2018  So my grades are probably the original and less accurate grades.

 
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Basically, it feels like a few posters are committed to their stances on Carson and Penny.
Some people have been defending Carson for so long that they seem emotionally committed to him.  Up to this point, they have been right even when there was good reason to doubt Carson with him being a 7th round pick competing against a 1st round pick.  Aside from his fumbles, Carson has been money for the last two years.  But to be confident that Carson's job isn't in serious jeopardy after committing his 7th fumble and causing his 9th fumble is foolhardy.  Carson's best case scenario right now might be a 50/50 timeshare.  And he could lose that with another fumble.

 
Some people have been defending Carson for so long that they seem emotionally committed to him.  Up to this point, they have been right even when there was good reason to doubt Carson with him being a 7th round pick competing against a 1st round pick.  Aside from his fumbles, Carson has been money for the last two years.  But to be confident that Carson's job isn't in serious jeopardy after committing his 7th fumble and causing his 9th fumble is foolhardy.  Carson's best case scenario right now might be a 50/50 timeshare.  And he could lose that with another fumble.
Fully agree. His fumbles early in the season were alarming, but the coaches stuck with him and he pushed through it. Now it seems to have come back and emphasis on ball security is heightened in the stretch run for a play-off team. I will be very surprised if it's not a 50/50 share going forward.

 
He only dropped one fumble, although that is still cause for concern. 

The second was a botched handoff. It looked like Carson expected Wilson to keep it, as there were was clearly miscommunication on the play. They both sort of threw their hands up and looked at each other. In some ways that might be worse for Carson, if they lose faith that he's understanding the plays called. 
Looked like Wilson was upset at Carson, and while both players may have been at fault, I think it's Wilson's voice that matters more to Carroll's decision.

I have Carson and penny.   I hope they decide on one over the other cause if they start using both thats not what we want
I have a feeling that we just simply might run them both. Carson brings the power run game that the whole SEA offense is built around. Penny brings some burst. Have a feeling that this might devolve into a split situation that favors neither of them from a fantasy standpoint.

 
It makes me sad seeing this guy ranked in the low teens this week. A RB1 all year to now almost consider benching him. Thankfully I already clinched so I have a week to see how things play out. As a Carson/Penny owner Id almost rather an injury at this point.

 
I still think Carson will get a majority of the carries but he will lose some to Penny.  I am thinking it's like a 60/40 split but who knows at this point.  That is just my sense of the situation.

What gets me afraid is what if Carson puts the ball on the ground on his third carry?  Or he gets stuffed a bunch and Penny runs well so Pete goes with the hot hand again?

Too many red flags.  I think Carson got a gift earlier this year when Penny had his hamstring problems.  Pete was forced to go with Carson when maybe Penny would have split more carries.  Now that Penny is healthy, has fresh legs, and Carson keeps fumbling this whole situation has turned into a mess.  

 
It makes me sad seeing this guy ranked in the low teens this week. A RB1 all year to now almost consider benching him. Thankfully I already clinched so I have a week to see how things play out. As a Carson/Penny owner Id almost rather an injury at this point.
And because of Carson and Wilson's numbers last week...I need a win this week to get in.  And yeah, now Im sweating this after having lost Conner and middling around with guys like Lindsay and Damien Williams.  Now I wish we could play WRs for RBs in my league cause I actually have guys there.

Came at the worst time...but still basically have to start him in hopes he breaks one or gets a GL chance.

 
Carson owner here.

what I have noticed with the two running backs is a certain pattern in their running style. Rashaad Penny tends to break a lot of his runs outside and reverse direction a lot. He is not the best when it comes to in between the tackle running the spite his style. That is why often when he has a big game there is usually one long run that contributes to it where is Carson is the guy who usually gets runs that are in the 4 to 5 yard range with a few longer ones sprinkled in.

certainly the fumbles are concerning. I'm not sure how much of the work Penny got was due to the fumbles or also just based on the type of run defense that the Eagles have where the centre is very tough to run through that having a running back who is good getting to the edge for runs might have been the preferred option.

That being said I think Penny did learn more carries with the way he played. being that they are quite a run-heavy team and do have some good run game matchups coming up, after this week that I could see there being a 15 to18 carry total for Carson and a 6 to 12 carry total for Penny. 

My projections would be:

Carson 15 carries 65 yards 3 catches 21 yards 

Penny 9 carries 39, 1catch 12 yard

As for touchdowns who knows

So means Carson goes to rb2 with rb1 upside and penny to flex with rb2 upside.

 
I still think Carson will get a majority of the carries but he will lose some to Penny.  I am thinking it's like a 60/40 split but who knows at this point.  That is just my sense of the situation.

What gets me afraid is what if Carson puts the ball on the ground on his third carry?  Or he gets stuffed a bunch and Penny runs well so Pete goes with the hot hand again?

Too many red flags.  I think Carson got a gift earlier this year when Penny had his hamstring problems.  Pete was forced to go with Carson when maybe Penny would have split more carries.  Now that Penny is healthy, has fresh legs, and Carson keeps fumbling this whole situation has turned into a mess.  
This is about right.  He's gone from high floor high upside to low floor and slightly less chance of hitting his high upside.  There's still a wide range of outcomes for this week including a 30 carry 3 touchdown monster, and I do think Pete would feed the beast if he starts out strong to get his confidence back, but it's a lot easier to get there without the baggage. 

That said, I think he's a high end rb2 option this week. I wouldn't start him over any of the obvious rb1s, but I would still start him over most of the other rb2s because they almost all have similar warts this week.

 
Surprised a little bit at the doom and gloom here...I think part of that has to do with Carson continually being undervalued by the FF community.

Penny had a very nice day.  And Carson’s issues with ball security have been puzzling to say the least.  But Carson is still a huge part of this offense, both in terms of production and spirit.  Could we see Penny getting more snaps?  Of course.  But there have been 782 RB snaps in SEA’s backfield thru 11 games; 71/game.

I don’t think there is any question Carson is still the lead dog...even if this were to become a 65/35 split, Carson still is on the field for 45 snaps, more than enough to still be a workhorse - something Penny still hasn’t proven he can be.

 
Surprised a little bit at the doom and gloom here...I think part of that has to do with Carson continually being undervalued by the FF community.

Penny had a very nice day.  And Carson’s issues with ball security have been puzzling to say the least.  But Carson is still a huge part of this offense, both in terms of production and spirit.  Could we see Penny getting more snaps?  Of course.  But there have been 782 RB snaps in SEA’s backfield thru 11 games; 71/game.

I don’t think there is any question Carson is still the lead dog...even if this were to become a 65/35 split, Carson still is on the field for 45 snaps, more than enough to still be a workhorse - something Penny still hasn’t proven he can be.
Undervalued because he doesn't have any home run potential. He might grind his way to a 20-pt game if getting 25-30 carries, but more realistic is 80-100 yds w/ 50/50 shot at one TD... kind of his MO.

My concerns are strictly on the fumbling. Troubling so far, but wait until one (or more) fumbles cost them a game... then he will be on the bench IMO.

 
Minnesota isn’t the best proving ground either way.  But counterpoint is carson comes out motivated and fired up.  I think we had a day like that last time he was in jeopardy.  He’s been pretty pedestrian for a while now anyway 

 
Carson owner here.  I am grabbing Penny.  I think in this offense it is possible to play both and get high end RB1 production from them.  Use one in the flex.  If one starts to take the job full time (again) play him.

 
Dizzy said:
Undervalued because he doesn't have any home run potential. He might grind his way to a 20-pt game if getting 25-30 carries, but more realistic is 80-100 yds w/ 50/50 shot at one TD... kind of his MO.
On that front, perhaps ‘home run potential’ is overrated?  Fact of the matter is in his last 23 games, he’s totaled 2410 YFS & 15 TD’s.  Even your opinion of his MO sells him short based in what he’s actually produced.

Minnesota isn’t the best proving ground either way.  But counterpoint is carson comes out motivated and fired up.  I think we had a day like that last time he was in jeopardy.  He’s been pretty pedestrian for a while now anyway 
His last 8 games including this last clunker include; 882 YFS & 4 TD’s.  I don’t think pedestrian is the right word.

 
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On that front, perhaps ‘home run potential’ is overrated?  Fact of the matter is in his last 23 games, he’s totaled 2410 YFS & 15 TD’s.  Even your opinion of his MO sells him short based in what he’s actually produced.

His last 8 games including this last clunker include; 882 YFS & 4 TD’s.  I don’t think pedestrian is the right word.
He’s got a single hundred yard rushing game and two rushing td’s in the last six weeks.  I think pedestrian nails it.  Had a real nice stretch before that

 
TheDirtyWord said:
Surprised a little bit at the doom and gloom here...I think part of that has to do with Carson continually being undervalued by the FF community.

Penny had a very nice day.  And Carson’s issues with ball security have been puzzling to say the least.  But Carson is still a huge part of this offense, both in terms of production and spirit.  Could we see Penny getting more snaps?  Of course.  But there have been 782 RB snaps in SEA’s backfield thru 11 games; 71/game.

I don’t think there is any question Carson is still the lead dog...even if this were to become a 65/35 split, Carson still is on the field for 45 snaps, more than enough to still be a workhorse - something Penny still hasn’t proven he can be.
I don't understand how you don't see a downside. As you say, the fumbles are definitely concerning, and while Carson still may get the majority of carries, that ~60/40 split seems the likeliest outcome going forward. To your very point, Carson's value has been his incredible value in a grinding, run-to-set-up-the-pass offense. Carson is best when he has ~20 carries in terms of his output. If he doesn't get that volume, and the team brings in Penny on pure running plays to help protect the ball, I don't see how that doesn't significantly impact his fantasy value. 

He’s got a single hundred yard rushing game and two rushing td’s in the last six weeks.  I think pedestrian nails it.  Had a real nice stretch before that
Measuring a back's value by the # of >100 yard games seems too narrow, and the pedestrian label is too polarized. In my league, Carson is the #11 back in overall fantasy points, and assume he's in the Top 15 in most leagues regardless of system.

I am not even sure your trend point is valid, as in that same 6 week period, he's averaged just shy of 16 points per week in my league. Fine with saying he's not elite, but that's far from pedestrian. 

 
I don't understand how you don't see a downside. As you say, the fumbles are definitely concerning, and while Carson still may get the majority of carries, that ~60/40 split seems the likeliest outcome going forward. To your very point, Carson's value has been his incredible value in a grinding, run-to-set-up-the-pass offense. Carson is best when he has ~20 carries in terms of his output. If he doesn't get that volume, and the team brings in Penny on pure running plays to help protect the ball, I don't see how that doesn't significantly impact his fantasy value. 

Measuring a back's value by the # of >100 yard games seems too narrow, and the pedestrian label is too polarized. In my league, Carson is the #11 back in overall fantasy points, and assume he's in the Top 15 in most leagues regardless of system.

I am not even sure your trend point is valid, as in that same 6 week period, he's averaged just shy of 16 points per week in my league. Fine with saying he's not elite, but that's far from pedestrian. 
I’m also grading him on being in the Seattle offense, in terms of run first but with Wilson as an X factor.  I own carson and like him but he really hasn’t shown  you anything as dynamic as what Penny did last week against a good rush D

 
I’m also grading him on being in the Seattle offense, in terms of run first but with Wilson as an X factor.  I own carson and like him but he really hasn’t shown  you anything as dynamic as what Penny did last week against a good rush D
I guess I am failing to see your point. I don't care how dynamic Carson looks if he can continue to deliver Top 10 performance (which again, is far from pedestrian). 

What he has shown -- consistently all year -- is delivering fantasy value. 

I am also not understanding your point about the Seattle offense, which is specifically built around the run game. I don't see how that's a bad thing at all for Carson.

The problem that will affect Carson is a decrease in volume. I think he's proven beyond doubt he's a back you can lean on fantasy-wise, but the fumbles and a subsequent potential loss of snaps/carries to Penny is what hampers his value, and not his lack of "dynamism" or being "pedestrian." 

 
Yeah I dunno.

Carson is currently RB 10 in PPR scoring leagues. He has averaged 15 points per game this season. His most recent game he only scored 9.7 points which is tied with his week 2 performance for the 2nd worst he has done this season. He did have a bye prior to this, so a zero but all players get zero on bye. He had double digit points for 7 weeks in a row prior to that. 

The fumbles are a serious concern. Maybe Pete has had enough of that now, I don't know. There is risk of Carson not getting the same amount of opportunity now because of that, I don't think he is being benched for not performing well besides not hanging on to the football.

If anything Carroll has shown he prefers giving the ball to Carson over Penny, but the fumbles may have changed his mind now.

 
I wouldn't be surprised that with all the doom and gloom, a lot of owners sit Carson and be has a 14-80, 3 for 35 receiving, 3 TD game in the next few weeks. Feels like he hasn't gotten the opportunities to punch it in as often as you would expect for a Russell Wilson team. 

 
I have Devonta Freeman, Chris Carson, Benny Snell Jr., Darrell Williams, and Gus Edwards. Currently going Freeman/Snell with Carson in my 2nd Flex, but if I hear Damien Williams is OUT will probably switch to Darrell Williams. Moreso due to Minny not a very easy team to run on and I need to see his touches (not carries); think we see a 65%/35% split between the two assuming it's only those two (hi CJ Prosise).

 
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Hes still starting for me.  I need to see penny get run like that again before I get really worried.  These fumbles havent done carson in previously....more wont be good obviously 

 
Seahawks’ Pete Carroll ‘fired up’ about Rashaad Penny’s breakthrough. What does that mean for Chris Carson?

RENTON — As he has done at various points this season — when the unavoidable ball-security questions would pop up about his featured running back — Pete Carroll on Monday was quick to defend Chris Carson.

Then the Seahawks coach just as quickly turned the conversation to his quickest running back — Rashaad Penny.

“Rashaad did great. I’m really fired up for that,” Carroll said of Penny’s breakthroughin Sunday’s 17-9 victory at Philadelphia. “We need his explosiveness. He continues to show up. He has had the real home-run type of style of play. We’ve got to give him chances to bring that to us.”

What does that mean for the running-back position going forward — and specifically for Carson?

Carson was involved in two more fumbles, on back-to-back plays, against the Eagles — the second one officially credited to Russell Wilson on a botched handoff.

That gives Carson a league-high seven fumbles this season, which is three more than any other running back in the NFL. Four of those have resulted in turnovers.

Publicly, Carroll shrugged off Sunday’s fumbles when he was asked if those directly led to more touches for Penny.

“That’s not the case in my mind. The opportunity to play and to contribute is always there in that spot in particular,” Carroll said. “What Chris did yesterday, our offensive lineman knocked the ball out of his hands on the first one. The other one, it was a communication problem. It’s a little different than the guy just dropping the ball all over the place.”

After the game, Wilson took the blame for the miscue on the handoff exchange. The quarterback changed the play to a run at the line of scrimmage — and Carson clearly didn’t hear the audible.

“I just think I have to do a better job of making sure we’re really clear on what we’re trying to do there. I’ll put it on me for sure,” Wilson said.

Carson had eight carries for a season-low 26 yards on Sunday, but a team-high four catches for 31 yards. His 239 touches this season rank sixth in the NFL, and his 1,099 yards from scrimmage rank ninth.

Penny, the 2018 first-round pick, had 14 carries for 129 yards against the Eagles, both career highs. His 58-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter all but iced the game for the Seahawks, and his 5.9 yards per carry this season are the most by any NFL running back with 50 carries or more (and third overall behind Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson and Arizona QB Kyler Murray).

Penny was coming off a game against the 49ers when he had just two carries — and lost a fumble on his last touch. It was the first fumble of his NFL career.

Last week, Carroll said he was a little surprised Penny hadn’t been more involved in the Seahawks’ offensive plan in previous games.

Now it appears Penny has earned more touches going forward.

“It just seemed like he turned a corner on — well, he did it in a couple different areas,” Carroll said Monday. “His intent to prove that he’s worthy and get his playing time, just the competitiveness of it. He knew Chris was playing really well and doing good stuff. He knew that he needed to put his best foot forward. …

“It wasn’t a surprise that he looked like that. That’s what he’s been looking like. Wish it would’ve shown up a little earlier, but that’s my fault for not getting him in there.”

Adam Jude @A_Jude

Rashaad Penny is No. 1 among NFL running backs in yards per carry (for those with >= 50 carries), and third overall. Russell Wilson is ninth, via pro football ref.
 
CHRIS CARSON RB, SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Speaking Friday, Seahawks OC Brian Schottenheimer said the team plans to stick with its normal running back rotation for Week 13.

"Chris is our guy," Schottenheimer said of Chris Carson despite his Week 12 fumbling woes. "We know that." Schotty went on to add that the team wanted to get Rashaad Penny his touches, but that they wouldn't "force it." Penny out-touched Carson 14-12 in Week 12 while dramatically out-gaining him. The Seahawks have made a habit of re-committing to Carson following his turnovers, but that cannot be taken for granted in Week 13. Carson is a high-risk, high-reward RB2, with Penny offering big-time FLEX upside.

SOURCE: Brady Henderson on Twitter

Nov 29, 2019, 8:01 PM ET
 
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Chris Carson rushed 23 times for 102 yards and one touchdown in the Seahawks' 37-30, Week 13 win over the Vikings Monday night.

He caught just one pass for seven yards on two targets. Rashaad Penny was far more involved following his 14-129-1 rushing performance from Week 12 and siphoned a ton of the pass-game looks from Carson, securing 4-of-5 targets for 33 yards and a score while running for 15-74-1. The Seahawks jumped out to a big second-half lead to allow Seattle to really hammer the Vikings with both backs. Despite Carson's fumble issues, the Seahawks have stuck by him. It's encouraging for his Weeks 14-16 fantasy playoffs schedule against the Rams, Panthers, and Cardinals.

 
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No matter what happens from here on out for this guy to get me 21 to win by 1 point And secure the bye after a week of controversy......nothing but love
Similar here - he enabled me to hold off both Cousins and Cook with a slight lead. Monster game. He was a beast when it counted in the 4th quarter.

Even though I had Penny on my bench and he outscored him, I'm glad I started Carson just so I could enjoy watching him run hard.

 
got both penny and carson.  wondering if i should play both rest of the way.  penny as the flex
I’d personally assess my lineup game by game. If I thought the matchup even or myself favored, I’d definitely consider both. Don’t know what the Rams will do this week but Carolina and Arizona could be a feast fit for two!

 
got both penny and carson.  wondering if i should play both rest of the way.  penny as the flex
Kinda what I've been saying for the last week assuming Carson doesn't fumble and Penny doesn't botch an assignment/continues to look good. There's tons of value to be had when your offense is as run-dominant as Seattle and they split it between only 2 RBs. I'm a little surprised they didn't activate CJ myself.

I have CMC and Penny/Carson.  I will surely play the wrong one.
Why not all 3?

 
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got both penny and carson.  wondering if i should play both rest of the way.  penny as the flex
It’s something I’m considering too. My league starts 2RB and 2WR OR 1RB and 3WR. My #3 WR is Marvin Jones. My RB options are outside of the Seahawks duo are all gimpy (Freeman & Mack)

 
Kinda what I've been saying for the last week assuming Carson doesn't fumble and Penny doesn't botch an assignment/continues to look good. There's tons of value to be had when your offense is as run-dominant as Seattle and they split it between only 2 RBs. I'm a little surprised they didn't activate CJ myself.

Why not all 3?
We don't use a flex.

 
According to early snap numbers, Carson played 52% of the snaps and Penny 47%. Carson missed a series and a half due to a stinger/concussion check(?) I'd expect to see a 55/45-60-40 split the rest of the year assuming nobody flubs and Seahawks don't get a third party in the RB mix.

 
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Chris Carson had 15 carries for 76 yards and caught 3-of-4 passes for 15 yards in Week 14 against the Rams.

Carson looked set up for a huge game with Rashaad Penny leaving with a knee injury on the opening drive. He was effective with his touches, but gameflow worked against him, with Carson still ceding a few snaps to C.J Prosise. Penny’s knee injury appeared significant, so Carson is headed for an every-down role moving forward. He’ll be a locked-in RB1 for a matchup with Carolina in the fantasy semi-finals.

Dec 8, 2019, 11:45 PM ET

 
via ESPN

Rashaad Penny went down with an injury on his first snap of Sunday's game and is expected to miss the rest of the season. With Penny sidelined, Chris Carson returned to workhorse duties, playing 50 of 62 possible snaps. Carson carried the ball 15 times, ran a route on 26 of the team's 41 pass plays and was targeted four times. C.J. Prosise (one carry and no targets on nine snaps) and rookie Travis Homer (zero snaps) were relative nonfactors. Carson is set up for 20-plus touches this week against a Panthers defense that has allowed the most touchdowns (24) and fantasy points (390) to running backs this season. He's a candidate for one of his best games of the season.

 
Starting him over zeke in my guillotine championship. Carolina has been terrible against run and they would love to pound the rock Sunday 

 

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