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RB Alvin Kamara, NO (3 Viewers)

shadyridr said:
Carolina's defense looks even worse than TBs  now. The road thing bothers me but his last few home games have sucked as well. Basically, hes no longer the stud RB1 I thought he would be but he can always blow up.
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Since the bye:

17.7 - Ravens

30 - Minny

37.9 - Rams

29.8 - Cincy

19.6 - Philly

14.1 - Atl

16.5 - Dallas

21.4 - TB

I think the fact that 3 of his first 5 games were over 40, people’s expectations are still hovering around there. I mean, he’s 4th in points. Sure those 3 sub 20 games you’d like more. But to not call someone a stud RB when he is top 5 in points isn’t really fair. Plus, he has faced some solid defenses. He actually seems to do better against better competition. Gurley and Barkley are the only two I would trade him for. 

 
Elevencents said:
Since the bye:

17.7 - Ravens

30 - Minny

37.9 - Rams

29.8 - Cincy

19.6 - Philly

14.1 - Atl

16.5 - Dallas

21.4 - TB

I think the fact that 3 of his first 5 games were over 40, people’s expectations are still hovering around there. I mean, he’s 4th in points. Sure those 3 sub 20 games you’d like more. But to not call someone a stud RB when he is top 5 in points isn’t really fair. Plus, he has faced some solid defenses. He actually seems to do better against better competition. Gurley and Barkley are the only two I would trade him for. 
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I’d trade him for Zeke too.  And McCaffrey now that i think about it.  

 
I’m not so sure this is Kamara regressing to some imaginary mean more than the Saints just stinking up the joint the last few weeks. 

In my 0.5PPR league from weeks 7-12, he was the RB9 in PPG.  Less than 1ppg from being RB6 over Gurley.   This includes Fournette as RB2 during this period playing 3 games.  He was less than 4ppg off the top RB during this time (CMac).

Before the Saints last two weeks of crap, he was in the mix as one of the top stud RBs.  If the Saints can get back to scoring points, he’ll be fine. 

 
shadyridr said:
Carolina's defense looks even worse than TBs  now. The road thing bothers me but his last few home games have sucked as well. Basically, hes no longer the stud RB1 I thought he would be but he can always blow up.
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It feels like one of those games where Carolina's defense will be flying around and people will wonder where it has been for the last few weeks

Carolina is only 1/2 game back of the wild card

Carolina is 5-1 at home.  Four of their last five have been on the road which doesn't help the perception of how their defense is really playing.

New Orleans third road game in a row. 

New Orleans already plays worse on the road and even moreso late in the season vs divisional opponents.

If Newton's shoulder is still sore, they might to try to grind out the game with McCaffrey getting almost 30 carries, eating up clock.

Primetime game.  

The one advantage Kamara has is in PPR if they are trailing late he is the pass catching RB.  I'd be happier if they were 14 point favorites at home vs. the Bengals or somebody garbage 🤷‍♂️

 
dont let the panthers free fall fool you, they haven't given up 100 rushing yards to a RB since week 6 (and only twice this season). They are the 5th stingiest fantasy defense against RB's.... but have allowed exactly 1 rushing td the last 5 games.  i'm hoping kamara gets even more involved in the passing game this week.

 
There could be better plays this week. I am considering benching him for Cooper or ware, really think there is a better than average chance of both players scoring more but yea the potential blow up game is there

 
starks said:
There could be better plays this week. I am considering benching him for Cooper or ware, really think there is a better than average chance of both players scoring more but yea the potential blow up game is there
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Standard scoring. I have Mixon, Chubb, Lindsey and Kamara. I'm not sure how I start Kamara. It's almost inconceivable but how do I sit any of the three mentioned before him? If it were ppr maybe but...it's not.

 
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3 TDs in 2 career games against Carolina, both last season in an RB timeshare like right now.

Would love to see him get some snaps out of the slot Monday night, big weak point for Carolina this year.

 
Kwai Chang Caine said:
Standard scoring. I have Mixon, Chubb, Lindsey and Kamara. I'm not sure how I start Kamara. It's almost inconceivable but how do I sit any of the three mentioned before him? If it were ppr maybe but...it's not.
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similar situation.   i have chubb, lindsey, and Kamara.   Start 2 of the 3.

Kamara has been the weakest of the 3 over the past month...  the trend is down....  it's hard to sit him, but it's probably the right choice.

 
Alvin Kamara rushed 14 times for 67 yards and one touchdown in the Saints' 12-9, Week 15 win over the Panthers on Monday night, adding seven catches for 36 yards on nine targets.

Kamara scored the Saints' only touchdown, running one in from 16 yards out early in the fourth quarter to put New Orleans in the lead for the first time all night, a lead they tried to give back when Tommylee Lewis fumbled out of the end zone for a touchback while up 12-9 with less than two minutes to play. Kamara out-touched Mark Ingram 21-14 in this one and really took over in the second half. New Orleans hosts the Steelers in Week 16. Kamara is an RB1.

Dec 17 - 11:20 PM
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leftcoastheel said:
I think not.  His points were all front loaded and now owners who own him are screwed in the playoffs.

Just beat the Kamara owner this evening in my big $$$ corporate divisional league.  I had Zeke vs. Kamara in the RB1 slot.  No competition.
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Just can't agree with you.  Many owners just rode him into their championship game tonight.

I beat the Gurley owner last weekend, and the Zeke AND Chubb owner this weekend. 

But what does that prove? Using your logic, would I draft Kamara ahead of all 3 of them next season? I think not.  But he's clearly a RB1 in all PPR formats, even against tough matchups. 

 
Saints Offense has been off.  You've obviously got to start him next week if you've come this far.  Dynasty, maybe a slight buy low--though it's hard to imagine many owners being in a hurry to off-load a guy getting 15 TD's.  Sometimes people go nuts when they lose in the playoffs though.  

 
Truebluey said:
Just can't agree with you.  Many owners just rode him into their championship game tonight.

I beat the Gurley owner last weekend, and the Zeke AND Chubb owner this weekend. 

But what does that prove? Using your logic, would I draft Kamara ahead of all 3 of them next season? I think not.  But he's clearly a RB1 in all PPR formats, even against tough matchups. 
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That's fine.  He had a nice game tonight.  And he probably did not win your game tonight.  He performed at what I think is slightly above his mean.  Other players probably won your game, if you look at it honestly understanding that Kamara was your first round pick.  Gurley beat him pretty easily.

And, if we use your logic, he lost a lot of people's first rounds in the playoffs and probably cost a lot people's bids to the playoffs all together towards the end of the season.  That's just data.  How do you disagree with that?

And Gurley convincingly beat Kamara this week.  Yes I have Gurley on many teams :) .

I play in a large money corporate league... and I made the Championship round.  The Kamara guy barely made the playoffs and I crushed him last week...

 
leftcoastheel said:
That's fine.  He had a nice game tonight.  And he probably did not win your game tonight.  He performed at what I think is slightly above his mean.  Other players probably won your game, if you look at it honestly understanding that Kamara was your first round pick.  Gurley beat him pretty easily.

And, if we use your logic, he lost a lot of people's first rounds in the playoffs and probably cost a lot people's bids to the playoffs all together towards the end of the season.  That's just data.  How do you disagree with that?

And Gurley convincingly beat Kamara this week.  Yes I have Gurley on many teams :) .

I play in a large money corporate league... and I made the Championship round.  The Kamara guy barely made the playoffs and I crushed him last week...
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He did win me the game tonight. And he won me a bye last week. What the #### are you talking about? Dude is a stud. 

 
People love to #### on Kamara and I don’t get it. If you had him weeks 1-4 you were prob 4-0. Can’t put up 50 every week. 

 
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leftcoastheel said:
That's fine.  He had a nice game tonight.  And he probably did not win your game tonight.  He performed at what I think is slightly above his mean.  Other players probably won your game, if you look at it honestly understanding that Kamara was your first round pick.  Gurley beat him pretty easily.

And, if we use your logic, he lost a lot of people's first rounds in the playoffs and probably cost a lot people's bids to the playoffs all together towards the end of the season.  That's just data.  How do you disagree with that?

And Gurley convincingly beat Kamara this week.  Yes I have Gurley on many teams :) .

I play in a large money corporate league... and I made the Championship round.  The Kamara guy barely made the playoffs and I crushed him last week...
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All this logical "evidence" of so and so won me my game this week and he beat the team with so and so is rather meaningless.

My only knock is Kamara dissapointed on that 1 on 1 with the corner in the open field early in the game. He needs to work that out on grass and improve his grass game. I feel like at home on the fast track he jukes that guy out of his shoes and scores a 2nd TD. In my mind I would rather have Kamara. Gurley has more miles and the mileage is much more punishing per touch than Kamara's, and is showing wear. When Kamara was used like a bellcow for the 1st 4 games of the season he handily outscored Gurley with less touches (PPR). Ingram will be gone next season (I think) and we could be returning to the Kamara we all knew and loved in the first month of the season with Ingram on suspension. If Kamara carries the load like that Gurley will not keep pace.

Bottom line on a per touch basis Kamara has shown more and has not had a slump type season (like Gurley who needs system support for his style of rushing more than Kamara does) and next year should have more opps similar to the 1st month of the season this year. If Kamara who has a similar build to McCaffrey can get McCaffrey type touch volume I have no doubt he will outscore Gurley.

 
WTH is Payton thinking?  Huge game and he gets 11 touches?  On most of their last couple drives he’s not even on the field. Yet every time he was in the field, huge game changing plays.  I guess he’s “saving” him?

 
Andrew74 said:
WTH is Payton thinking?  Huge game and he gets 11 touches?  On most of their last couple drives he’s not even on the field. Yet every time he was in the field, huge game changing plays.  I guess he’s “saving” him?
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It’s mind boggling. I get he can’t play every down, but there were 3rd downs when we wasn’t out there in the 4th quarter. He should be a staple in those situations.

 
I've begun to hate Sean Peyton almost to the level I hate Chip Kelly. I'm in a long time home league where we are allowed one keeper that you can declare as your first round pick. I offered the guy who has both Mahomes and Kamara my 6th round pick next year for Kamara who I then would keep in the first. I'm wondering if I made a mistake...

 
He had 2 touches in the first half. Amazing he had as many points as he did. Peyton set him up to fail this game. Gonna be glad when Ingram is gone and its just Kamara as the main guy next season (hope). ETA Peyton will probably find a way to get number 7 all the carries. He's too smart for his own good.

 
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mnmplayer said:
All this logical "evidence" of so and so won me my game this week and he beat the team with so and so is rather meaningless.

My only knock is Kamara dissapointed on that 1 on 1 with the corner in the open field early in the game. He needs to work that out on grass and improve his grass game. I feel like at home on the fast track he jukes that guy out of his shoes and scores a 2nd TD. In my mind I would rather have Kamara. Gurley has more miles and the mileage is much more punishing per touch than Kamara's, and is showing wear. When Kamara was used like a bellcow for the 1st 4 games of the season he handily outscored Gurley with less touches (PPR). Ingram will be gone next season (I think) and we could be returning to the Kamara we all knew and loved in the first month of the season with Ingram on suspension. If Kamara carries the load like that Gurley will not keep pace.

Bottom line on a per touch basis Kamara has shown more and has not had a slump type season (like Gurley who needs system support for his style of rushing more than Kamara does) and next year should have more opps similar to the 1st month of the season this year. If Kamara who has a similar build to McCaffrey can get McCaffrey type touch volume I have no doubt he will outscore Gurley.
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Seems like C.J. Anderson, a guy off the street kinda proved my point for me. Throw anyone in there. However, Ingram is no Kamara. Kamara had so few touches this last game and still somehow produced. Hes back to scoring 40ppg if Ingram isn't on this team next year.

 
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Maybe too soon for some, but now that the regular season has wrapped, what's the year 2 post-mortem on Kamara?

In the off-season and around draft time in fall 2018 there was a lot of opinion (but not all-out agreement by any means) about how Kamara would lose efficiency and he would be hard-pressed to approach his rookie production and his body composition was non-standard at the position.

2017 (16 G)

Rush 120/728 6.1 YPC  8 TD 

Rec 81/826 10.2 YPC  5 TD

2018 (15 G)

Rush 194/883 4.6 YPC  14 TD 

Rec 81/709 8.8 YPC  4 TD

The increase in rush attempts reduced his YPC as most would expect and many predicted since 6.1 YPC is an insane number in the NFL. Same reception total for a reduced YPC as well but a significant increase in TDs. Sean Payton certainly didn't hesitate to use him at the goal line.

So......regression in some efficiency per touch areas but the total yards were nearly identical (1554 in 2017 and 1592 in 2018). One less game played in 2018 but obviously more opportunity than in his rookie season before it eventually took off, especially with the Ingram suspension.

 Curious how the people who had legitimate doubts about his year 2 production feel now and if hindsight changes anything for them and what  their view is for year three?

 
Depends on what happens with Ingram. If he walks and they don't bring anyone else in for that role the sky is the limit for Kamara. If Ingram resigns or they bring in a like RB then we can expect about the same. 

 
Sebowski said:
Depends on what happens with Ingram. If he walks and they don't bring anyone else in for that role the sky is the limit for Kamara. If Ingram resigns or they bring in a like RB then we can expect about the same. 
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If we expect about the same where would you rank him PPR and standard? I’d say about #5 PPR and about 8th standard.

 
Andrew74 said:
Am I alone in being super excited to see Ingram leave and Murray coming in?  Kamara looks good for 2019 and beyond. 
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I’m expecting a massive season(s). He could up his TDs a lot by Ingram’s departure 

 
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Gandalf said:
But Murray is not the goal line threat Ingram was. I dunno I think Kamara can be used more inside the 10
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Ingram has had 128 carries inside the 10 yard line in his career and Latavius has had 86. Ingram has scored a TD on 25.7% of those carries and Latavius a TD on 29%. 

Sebowski said:
Yeah I like this for Kamara. Not because of goal line situations. More because Murray isn't good enough to warrant full drives and longer spells like Ingram. 
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I can't help but wonder if Ingram had spent his career in Oakland/MN and Latavius had been on this Saints offense his whole career if we'd see the talent disparity as non existent. Even with the disparity if offenses their per touch numbers are not that off in both rushing and receiving.

When Ingram was out last year Kamara got about 22 touches a game and that dropped to 16  when Ingram returned. Not counting week 17 when Ingram returned he got a little over 13 touches a game. A 16 to 13 per game split basically. I don't expect this to change much, maybe 1-2 to Kamara and 1-2 less for Latavius but not anything overly huge. I put Saints going  Latavius over Ingram as a very small bump at most. I just don't think they want to run Kamara into the ground.

 
It's also about the quality of touches. Ingram had better trust to get things done in quality situations than Murray ever will anywhere in his mediocre career. In my, imo. 

 
Kamara is also a witch at elusiveness and avoiding contact........except for that one play (likely a hurdle) per game where he exposes himself to career ending injury.

 
menobrown said:
Ingram has had 128 carries inside the 10 yard line in his career and Latavius has had 86. Ingram has scored a TD on 25.7% of those carries and Latavius a TD on 29%. 

I can't help but wonder if Ingram had spent his career in Oakland/MN and Latavius had been on this Saints offense his whole career if we'd see the talent disparity as non existent. Even with the disparity if offenses their per touch numbers are not that off in both rushing and receiving.

When Ingram was out last year Kamara got about 22 touches a game and that dropped to 16  when Ingram returned. Not counting week 17 when Ingram returned he got a little over 13 touches a game. A 16 to 13 per game split basically. I don't expect this to change much, maybe 1-2 to Kamara and 1-2 less for Latavius but not anything overly huge. I put Saints going  Latavius over Ingram as a very small bump at most. I just don't think they want to run Kamara into the ground.
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I agree they don’t want to run Kamara into the ground but they can - and in my opinion should - give him more than 16 carries a game. He’s not made of glass

 
menobrown said:
Ingram has had 128 carries inside the 10 yard line in his career and Latavius has had 86. Ingram has scored a TD on 25.7% of those carries and Latavius a TD on 29%. 
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Good post. People give Murray no credit (myself included). I don’t think things will change much in NO. Def like Murray there moreso than Ingram as a Kamara owner but Murray will prove to be somewhat frustrating at times. 

 
Alvin is firmly entrenched in the top 4, and rightfully so.  He is a PPR monster (81 catches each of his 2 seasons) and a TD machine (18 & 13).  But can he finish as RB1 with under 300 touches?  History says no (going back to 1996 anyways).  Even RB2 is very unlikely, as it has happened only once (DeAngelo Williams with 296 touches & 20 TD's in 2008).  Seems the top 2 spots are reserved for 300-touch guys.  Barkley and Zeke are those top 2 for 2019, with CMC & Kamara in a tiny tier by themselves.  There is no reason for the Saints to overuse Alvin, unless Sean Payton plays FF too.

 
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