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Sam Darnold - Meow, he's a Panther.


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1 minute ago, Dr. Octopus said:

For the record I said this:

 

Right. Doesn’t “roll the dice” = I’m saying/doing this? When I’m playing Texas Hold Em’ and I’m debating on whether or not to call a $1500 all-in bet on the river, I might say I’m going to roll the dice and make the call, even though I’m not sure of the outcome. Or perhaps I’m misunderstanding. 

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I don't know how good he'll be in the NFL but when you have a chance to be a top 5 pick you don't risk your health playing another season for free.

As a Jets fan, Darnold was in a terrible situation with Jets. But he was also a terrible quarterback with them. He'll certainly have a good game or two if -- that's if -- he ever starts for Carolina,

You seem to have this odd fixation on this point. Very weird. 

Just now, JoeJoe88 said:

Right. Doesn’t “roll the dice” = I’m saying/doing this? When I’m playing Texas Hold Em’ and I’m debating on whether or not to call a $1500 all-in bet on the river, I might say I’m going to roll the dice and make the call, even though I’m not sure of the outcome. Or perhaps I’m misunderstanding. 

Yes - I'm saying if I had to make that choice I'd take my chances with Wilson having the better season in 2021 but "rolling the dice" does not imply the confidence you were assigning it.

I am confident that Wilson/Fields will have a better 2021 than any season Sam had with the Jets though - and to be honest I'm not even sure if Wilson or Fields will excel in the NFL.

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I just want you to admit that you WANT him to have a bad career with the Panthers. Similar to how most Georgia fans WANTED Fields to have a bad career at Ohio State. It's OK to admit that and it lets other readers of this thread understand your POV. 

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14 minutes ago, ConstruxBoy said:

I just want you to admit that you WANT him to have a bad career with the Panthers. Similar to how most Georgia fans WANTED Fields to have a bad career at Ohio State. It's OK to admit that and it lets other readers of this thread understand your POV. 

You seem to have this odd fixation on this point. Very weird. 

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1 hour ago, ConstruxBoy said:

I just want you to admit that you WANT him to have a bad career with the Panthers. Similar to how most Georgia fans WANTED Fields to have a bad career at Ohio State. It's OK to admit that and it lets other readers of this thread understand your POV. 

Well the Jets have the Panthers second round pick next season so I suppose it would be better if Sam fails there and the Jets get a high second in 2022. I'm not delusional enough to think my words in this thread will have any affect on whether Darnold fails at his next stop though - so I don't really get your point at all. 

However, I think what's caused me to keep responding here is the silly notion that my opinion (and other Jets' fans) gets dismissed as "sour grapes" by Carolina fans or Darnold fantasy owners, as if we all have blinders on a don't want to believe the Jets have been mismanaged over the last few seasons and that we're pretending it's all Sam's fault and once he's gone all of our problems will be solved! 

Anyway, I've had my say here. I'm not rooting against Darnold. He's a good kid. He was not done any favors during his time here and he was a class act and a hard worker the entire 3 seasons he was a Jet. Obviously I would have loved for him to have shown signs of being a franchise QB, but unfortunately he regressed. I'll wait and see what happens and stop commenting here.

Edited by Dr. Octopus
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1 hour ago, Dr. Octopus said:

For the record I said this:

Yeah, that's what I was going off of. Not that Darnold would have a worse year this year than Wilson. That would be a stupid bet. JoeJoe88 re-wrote the bet already. I didn't bother with it when he did that (and he can quote his response to me saying it's a stupid bet all he wants, it doesn't change what he bet on), because it was dumb to begin with. He bet Wilson would have a worse year this year than any Darnold had had with the Jets. Not what he'd do in Carolina. But JoeJoe88 knows that, and his bet was stupid. And is stupid. And so is this discussion.

Darnold was all kinds of putrid and everybody knows it. That he didn't have talent or coaching around him like other players have had is true. That he stunk is also, by any measure, objectively true. He was awful. His 4.5 or so ANY/A this year is one of the worst in recent memory for a starter.

And ConstruxBoy isn't worth the time about this. His rationality has been shot. I don't know what these guys have invested in Darnold, but time watching him play isn't one of them.

Edited by rockaction
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Saw this Tweet today just now. Sam was terrible this year, and everybody knows it.

PFF Fantasy Football

@PFF_Fantasy

·57m

Lowest passer rating from a clean pocket in 2020

Carson Wentz - 82.5

Dwayne Haskins - 82.2

Sam Darnold - 81.7

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8 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Saw this Tweet today just now. Sam was terrible this year, and everybody knows it.

PFF Fantasy Football

@PFF_Fantasy

·57m

Lowest passer rating from a clean pocket in 2020

Carson Wentz - 82.5

Dwayne Haskins - 82.2

Sam Darnold - 81.7

Now we can seamlessly blame that on the lack of WR talent, or Gase's playcalling, or Sam's mono, or.......

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28 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Yeah, that's what I was going off of. Not that Darnold would have a worse year this year than Wilson. That would be a stupid bet. JoeJoe88 re-wrote the bet already. I didn't bother with it when he did that (and he can quote his response to me saying it's a stupid bet all he wants, it doesn't change what he bet on), because it was dumb to begin with. He bet Wilson would have a worse year this year than any Darnold had had with the Jets. Not what he'd do in Carolina. But JoeJoe88 knows that, and his bet was stupid. And is stupid. And so is this discussion.

Darnold was all kinds of putrid and everybody knows it. That he didn't have talent or coaching around him like other players have had is true. That he stunk is also, by any measure, objectively true. He was awful. His 4.5 or so ANY/A this year is one of the worst in recent memory for a starter.

And ConstruxBoy isn't worth the time about this. His rationality has been shot. I don't know what these guys have invested in Darnold, but time watching him play isn't one of them.

He's the same player now that he was at SC. He received zero development. That does not mean that he will develop, but in this particular instance I don't think what he did while on that disaster of a team matters. He came into the league in need of coaching in order to overcome his flaws and he quite simply has not gotten any. 

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26 minutes ago, rockaction said:

eah, that's what I was going off of. Not that Darnold would have a worse year this year than Wilson. That would be a stupid bet. JoeJoe88 re-wrote the bet already. I didn't bother with it when he did that (and he can quote his response to me saying it's a stupid bet all he wants, it doesn't change what he bet on), because it was dumb to begin with. He bet Wilson would have a worse year this year than any Darnold had had with the Jets. Not what he'd do in Carolina. But JoeJoe88 knows that, and his bet was stupid. And is stupid. And so is this discussion.

I’m not sure what you’re talking about with me “re-writing a bet.” You seem to get confused a lot on these forums. I’d suggest you go back and read the sequence of posts beginning with me saying “I’d take that bet.” Everything was quoted clearly as to what we were talking about. You were pounding your chest pretty adamantly about it a few pages ago, I don’t know why you’re trying to hedge yourself now with pretending you were referring to Wilson having a better rookie season than any that Darnold ever had. But I agree with you on one thing: this is stupid. I’m out. Good luck in the draft. 

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2 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

I’m not sure what you’re talking about with me “re-writing a bet.” You seem to get confused a lot on these forums. I’d suggest you go back and read the sequence of posts beginning with me saying “I’d take that bet.” Everything was quoted clearly as to what we were talking about. You were pounding your chest pretty adamantly about it a few pages ago, I don’t know why you’re trying to hedge yourself now with pretending you were referring to Wilson having a better rookie season than any that Darnold ever had. But I agree with you on one thing: this is stupid. I’m out. Good luck in the draft. 

I don't get confused a lot on these forums. At all. I think a lot of people leave unwritten #### and then when clarified try to back out of their position. I was pretty clearly responding to what Dr. Octopus said. No way I'm saying a rookie in a Jets uniform will have a better year than a fourth year guy with D.J. Moore, Anderson, and McCaffrey. Nor was Dr. Octopus, like you tried to pin on him this morning. It's right in the pages. You're confused, baby. That's what that is. Don't pin it on me. Yeah, I was pounding my chest because almost anybody, even Dwayne Haskins, could have a better year than Sam did last year.

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1 minute ago, rockaction said:

I don't get confused a lot on these forums. At all. I think a lot of people leave unwritten #### and then when clarified try to back out of their position. I was pretty clearly responding to what Dr. Octopus said. No way I'm saying a rookie in a Jets uniform will have a better year than a fourth year guy with D.J. Moore, Anderson, and McCaffrey. Nor was Dr. Octopus, like you tried to pin on him this morning. It's right in the pages. You're confused, baby. That's what that is. Don't pin it on me. Yeah, I was pounding my chest because almost anybody, even Dwayne Haskins, could have a better year than Sam did last year.

 

2 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:
2 hours ago, JoeJoe88 said:

 

Yes - I'm saying if I had to make that choice I'd take my chances with Wilson having the better season in 2021 but "rolling the dice" does not imply the confidence you were assigning it.

Care to explain, baby? 

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On 4/6/2021 at 6:43 AM, Dr. Octopus said:

I'd be willing to bet Wilson easily outperforms Darnold's best season with the Jets, and I'd even roll the dice that he has a better 2021. 

@JoeJoe88

This is the bet you made, JoeJoe88. You're the confused one. It starts right here. Don't ever say I get confused often on these boards when you have no reading comprehension. 

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1 minute ago, rockaction said:

@JoeJoe88

This is the bet you made, JoeJoe88. You're the confused one. It starts right here. Don't ever say I get confused often on these boards when you have no reading comprehension. 

LOL. I like how you completely disregard that I was responding too AND quoted the last part of his statement. Like, its literally right there if you just look. 

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1 minute ago, JoeJoe88 said:

LOL. I like how you completely disregard that I was responding too AND quoted the last part of his statement. Like, its literally right there if you just look. 

Yeah, what he'd bet on is right there. He said twice he'd bet on Wilson having a better year than the best year Sam had with the Jets. Says he'd "roll the dice" on 2021. Hardly sounds like bet to me. His memory is the same as mine that that was the main clause and main intent. Guess you feel differently. No matter. It's not like anything was really at stake.

Other than pride.

Crushing pride of watching Sam flail in Carolina, most likely.

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2 hours ago, Witz said:

You seem to have this odd fixation on this point. Very weird. 

I think it's interesting when people cannot disclose their biases. Just trying to help that in this thread. :shrug:

 

FTR, I'm a Bills fan foremost and a Penn State alum. So I like that the Jets have sucked recently and I like that Darnold looked bad because it helps take heat off the Giants for the Barkley pick at 2. 

Now I also live in Charlotte so it would be nice to see him succeed with the Panthers, although I've always been rooting for Teddy. 

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2 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Well the Jets have the Panthers second round pick next season so I suppose it would be better if Sam fails there and the Jets get a high second in 2022. I'm not delusional enough to think my words in this thread will have any affect on whether Darnold fails at his next stop though - so I don't really get your point at all. 

However, I think what's caused me to keep responding here is the silly notion that my opinion (and other Jets' fans) gets dismissed as "sour grapes" by Carolina fans or Darnold fantasy owners, as if we all have blinders on a don't want to believe the Jets have been mismanaged over the last few seasons and that we're pretending it's all Sam's fault and once he's gone all of our problems will be solved! 

Anyway, I've had my say here. I'm not rooting against Darnold. He's a good kid. He was not done any favors during his time here and he was a class act and a hard worker the entire 3 seasons he was a Jet. Obviously I would have loved for him to have shown signs of being a franchise QB, but unfortunately he regressed. I'll wait and see what happens and stop commenting here.

Good post. What I was looking for, TBH. 

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1 hour ago, rockaction said:

Yeah, that's what I was going off of. Not that Darnold would have a worse year this year than Wilson. That would be a stupid bet. JoeJoe88 re-wrote the bet already. I didn't bother with it when he did that (and he can quote his response to me saying it's a stupid bet all he wants, it doesn't change what he bet on), because it was dumb to begin with. He bet Wilson would have a worse year this year than any Darnold had had with the Jets. Not what he'd do in Carolina. But JoeJoe88 knows that, and his bet was stupid. And is stupid. And so is this discussion.

Darnold was all kinds of putrid and everybody knows it. That he didn't have talent or coaching around him like other players have had is true. That he stunk is also, by any measure, objectively true. He was awful. His 4.5 or so ANY/A this year is one of the worst in recent memory for a starter.

And ConstruxBoy isn't worth the time about this. His rationality has been shot. I don't know what these guys have invested in Darnold, but time watching him play isn't one of them.

To be fair, I'm not worth the time about much. 

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It's also funny to be in a similar situation as this one as a Sabres fan regarding Taylor Hall. He really sucked here on a bad team with bad coaching. I don't think he's that good anymore. So I hope to be "vindicated" by him not doing much with the Bruins. But I'm not actively rooting against him. Maybe he'll light it up. Of course that makes the 2nd round pick the Sabres receive worse. 

Pretty similar situation actually. 

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I'm quite ready to believe the Jets were a mess, AND Darnold might not be very good.  

 

If you have some shares of CMC, DJ, and Robbie, I think it's fair to be nervous.  

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45 minutes ago, ConstruxBoy said:

It's also funny to be in a similar situation as this one as a Sabres fan regarding Taylor Hall. He really sucked here on a bad team with bad coaching. I don't think he's that good anymore. So I hope to be "vindicated" by him not doing much with the Bruins. But I'm not actively rooting against him. Maybe he'll light it up. Of course that makes the 2nd round pick the Sabres receive worse. 

Pretty similar situation actually. 

I understand the parallel here, but Taylor Hall has a significantly larger sample size of elite level success.  It's therefore easier to correlate his struggles to Buffalo specifically at the moment, especially with how Eichel has struggled as well.  Also Hall was a FA signing, whereas Darnold cost the Jets so much draft capital relative to his return that it can make you cry.  

We've never seen Darnold perform at a fraction of the level of success Hall had at points in time (with 2 different franchises) so we're all left chicken or the egging if it was Darnold or the Jets who really caused this problem, and the reality is its both.  

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46 minutes ago, sheerterror said:

I understand the parallel here, but Taylor Hall has a significantly larger sample size of elite level success.  It's therefore easier to correlate his struggles to Buffalo specifically at the moment, especially with how Eichel has struggled as well.  Also Hall was a FA signing, whereas Darnold cost the Jets so much draft capital relative to his return that it can make you cry.  

We've never seen Darnold perform at a fraction of the level of success Hall had at points in time (with 2 different franchises) so we're all left chicken or the egging if it was Darnold or the Jets who really caused this problem, and the reality is its both.  

Good points. Thanks!

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5 hours ago, ConstruxBoy said:

I think it's interesting when people cannot disclose their biases. Just trying to help that in this thread. :shrug:

 

FTR, I'm a Bills fan foremost and a Penn State alum. So I like that the Jets have sucked recently and I like that Darnold looked bad because it helps take heat off the Giants for the Barkley pick at 2. 

Now I also live in Charlotte so it would be nice to see him succeed with the Panthers, although I've always been rooting for Teddy. 

Fair enough.

I don’t know any Jets fans (even those posting in here) that want him to fail or not succeed. 

As Jets fans I think we all wanted him to succeed during his time as a Jet. That said, he just didn’t pan out as expected. He certainly wasn’t the first and won’t be the last player that didn’t live up to expectations. When those in this thread are pointing out his flaws, issues, etc - they are just referring to what they’ve seen and experienced watching him play these past few years. 

I believe they are also saying that while he could succeed in a new environment, his past experiences don’t seem lend themselves to future success but who knows.

I hope he succeeds as I have nothing against him at all. Why wouldn’t you want him to succeed (now if he went to a divisional rival that’s a different story!)? 

Seemed like a nice enough guy so nothing but best wishes! 

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Yeah, I guess the only reason I wouldn't want him to succeed is to confirm what we already know? That the Jets were a tire fire under Maccagnan and Gase, and it took them a year too long to get their organization back in order and have the HC report to the GM to report to the owner?

That is was mismanaged beyond belief doesn't change the fact that Sam, on the football field, was terrible even when given the opportunity to succeed.

I keep pointing to Justin Herbert. Everything stacked against him, and the young man looked like Marino. Constantly.

Darnold showed three flashes the entire time I watched him. I'll admit, most of last year was too painful to watch. But here are his plays.

The throw against Dallas to Anderson deep from 2019.

The throw against Indy while scrambling from 2020.

The throw against SF that recently became the Twitter sensation from 2020.

That's it. Them's the highlights. Three years!

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I just can not figure Sam Darnold out.  I did not like him at USC till late in the process and then watching his tape as well as his interviews. He grew on me. The Jets took him and that me nervous for him but again I figured talent over landing spot. I never had any real shares of him. I had him on Taxi Squad a couple years and have no stock in him at all right now. I had a need to pick up a QB in a salary cap contract league(Orphan Team) and had a choice between Darnold and Wentz.  I had to keep either for at least 2 seasons so I would be locked in for 2021 and 2022. I ended up going Wentz but the Darnold pull was strong. 

Breaking down his tape he is good outside of structure and can make all the throws and if given time he can hurt you.  He seems a bit skittish at times or more frantic in his movements. You have to wonder about everything he had to endure in New York.  Injuries. Mono. Adam Gase. Multiple coaches and  offensive coordinators. The big lights of New York,  So here is another new coach and offensive coordinator in a new city to boot. I have to see it now before I will be sold on him but I like him enough to be rooting for him. I just wonder how damaged he is which by the way I have the same concern for Wentz but trust Reich and the Colts front office more than Carolina right now. The fact that Wentz for the most part already knows the offense was a big factor too. 

Carolina was a good spot for him to land.  Charlotte is a very cool place and a nice place to live. If he hits this season the Adam Gase reverse jinx will be real thing for sure if it's not already.

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1 hour ago, osubuckeyeman said:

Carolina was a good spot for him to land.  Charlotte is a very cool place and a nice place to live.

Really, an ideal spot. Plus them picking up his option so he doesn't have to worry about that.

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4 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Really, an ideal spot. Plus them picking up his option so he doesn't have to worry about that.

Do we literally mean an ideal spot (ie as in a place to live) . . . or do we mean to excel on the field? If people mean the latter, I can't really say I agree. CAR ranked 24th in scoring, 21st in offensive yardage, 18th in passing yards, 28th in TD passes, and 18th in offensive line play (which has since had several additions and subtractions this off season). They also lost Curtis Samuel to free agency. I'm all for the power of positive thinking, but the best selling point for Darnold's potential success is at least it's not the Jets.

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7 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Do we literally mean an ideal spot (ie as in a place to live) . . . or do we mean to excel on the field? If people mean the latter, I can't really say I agree. CAR ranked 24th in scoring, 21st in offensive yardage, 18th in passing yards, 28th in TD passes, and 18th in offensive line play (which has since had several additions and subtractions this off season). They also lost Curtis Samuel to free agency. I'm all for the power of positive thinking, but the best selling point for Darnold's potential success is at least it's not the Jets.

You can't really use stats like that to prove a point where the quarterback is a dependent variable there. The stats become rudimentary because they're largely a function of Bridgewater. You have to look at the stats in a vacuum for the receivers, running backs, and offensive line. Look at things like accuracy of the QB (they chart it), shots attempted downfield, catch rates, drops, OL grades, etc. I'd charge that their ineptitude was largely due to Teddy. He got a poor PFF grade and was gotten rid of (well, presumably) within the year that he began. That's not a vote of confidence and Carolina nearly procured a hernia getting another guy, despite the limited draft capital they spent. (The tea leaves are there.)

I mean, I know there's something to be gleaned from traditional stats, but asserting that the offense was bad where the guy that handles the ball every snap was bad implicates the guy rather than his surrounding talent. You may disagree, but that's my take on the issue.

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Just now, rockaction said:

You can't really use stats like that to prove a point where the quarterback is a dependent variable there. The become rudimentary because they're largely a function of Bridgewater. You have to look at the stats in a vacuum for the receivers, running backs, and offensive line. Look at things like accuracy of the QB (they chart it), shots attempted downfield, catch rates, drops, OL grades, etc. I'd charge that their ineptitude was largely due to Teddy. He got a poor PFF grade and was gotten rid of within the year that he began. That's not a vote of confidence and Carolina nearly procured a hernia getting rid of him.

I mean, I know there's something to be gleaned from traditional stats, but asserting that the offense was bad where the guy that handles the ball every snap was bad implicates the guy rather than his surrounding talent. You may disagree, but that's my take on the issue.

PFF rated Bridgewater last year at 66.0. They rated Darnold at 58.4. So sure, the things you brought up incorporate the level of play of the QBs, the potential best outcomes of individual plays, the lack of vision to identify the best outcome, and poor decision-making. Based off of all of that, Bridgewater played a fair amount better than Darnold did, and by all accounts Bridgewater was terrible. 

Maybe Bridgewater had trouble fitting in, lacked practice time in a COVID year, or otherwise struggled to learn the offense and build chemistry. Now let's replace him with a guy that performed worse on the third year in an organization (not his first year). We'll have to see how training camp and practices go, but there's a decent chance Darnold has the same issues Bridgewater did on terms of learning the offense, getting in sync with the offense, and building a rapport with his receivers playing on a new team.

Maybe the Jets offensive scheme was so inept that the Panthers system will be refreshing, easy to learn, and more productive by comparison. But if that were the case, one would think Bridgewater would have done a lot better.

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4 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

PFF rated Bridgewater last year at 66.0. They rated Darnold at 58.4. So sure, the things you brought up incorporate the level of play of the QBs, the potential best outcomes of individual plays, the lack of vision to identify the best outcome, and poor decision-making. Based off of all of that, Bridgewater played a fair amount better than Darnold did, and by all accounts Bridgewater was terrible. 

Maybe Bridgewater had trouble fitting in, lacked practice time in a COVID year, or otherwise struggled to learn the offense and build chemistry. Now let's replace him with a guy that performed worse on the third year in an organization (not his first year). We'll have to see how training camp and practices go, but there's a decent chance Darnold has the same issues Bridgewater did on terms of learning the offense, getting in sync with the offense, and building a rapport with his receivers playing on a new team.

Maybe the Jets offensive scheme was so inept that the Panthers system will be refreshing, easy to learn, and more productive by comparison. But if that were the case, one would think Bridgewater would have done a lot better.

Oh, I'm not arguing Darnold will be better than Bridgewater. I wouldn't let the last few pages where I'm ardently arguing against Darnold be usurped by a post where I am mainly disagreeing with using the statistical measurements of the offense that you were using. Which you immediately recognize, and probably did so before you used them, it seems.

IOW, Bridgewater may very well be better than Darnold, but he still stunk enough to where you can't judge the rest of the Carolina offense because of it, which is what we're judging when we say Darnold landed in an ideal spot in the pros, given his circumstances and performance. And an ideal spot in the pros is what we were arguing. In fact, I can't think of another quarterback-needy team that is as good a spot to land excluding Denver, who has a good line and Sutton, Jeudy, Patrick, Fant, Hamler and Gordon. That'd be the best. Carolina is probably second.

I mean, Darnold got really blessed with this trade, IMO. The offense, as I claimed (and this is where your disagreement came in) is good, it was the quarterbacking that stunk. Losing Samuel hurts, as you pointed out in your first post, but If ever Darnold could prove something, it's in this situation.

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T Bridgewater was bad throwing passes to- C Samuel, DJ Moore, R Anderson and M Davis,

who almost averaged 4 catches per game. S Darnold was bad with who?

You cannot compare their ratings unless their WR's/RB's were some what equal.

Not even close. S Darnold will be better with just the new talent around him.

I have no idea how much better, but it won't be worse than 2020 Bridgewater.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Anarchy99 said:

Do we literally mean an ideal spot (ie as in a place to live) . . . or do we mean to excel on the field? If people mean the latter, I can't really say I agree. CAR ranked 24th in scoring, 21st in offensive yardage, 18th in passing yards, 28th in TD passes, and 18th in offensive line play (which has since had several additions and subtractions this off season). They also lost Curtis Samuel to free agency. I'm all for the power of positive thinking, but the best selling point for Darnold's potential success is at least it's not the Jets.

His coaching upgrade is massive. Maybe bigger.

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13 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

His coaching upgrade is massive. Maybe bigger.

This, too. The organizational structure around him seems better, especially the coach.

This isn't to pump up Darnold. It's just to say this is a second chance and a reprieve that many guys don't get.

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1 hour ago, nightmare said:

T Bridgewater was bad throwing passes to- C Samuel, DJ Moore, R Anderson and M Davis,

who almost averaged 4 catches per game. S Darnold was bad with who?

You cannot compare their ratings unless their WR's/RB's were some what equal.

Not even close. S Darnold will be better with just the new talent around him.

I have no idea how much better, but it won't be worse than 2020 Bridgewater.

 

 

 

Crowder on the jets was a huge ppr cheat code for the 3 or so games before he and Darnold got hurt. 

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10 hours ago, rockaction said:

You can't really use stats like that to prove a point where the quarterback is a dependent variable there. The stats become rudimentary because they're largely a function of Bridgewater. You have to look at the stats in a vacuum for the receivers, running backs, and offensive line. Look at things like accuracy of the QB (they chart it), shots attempted downfield, catch rates, drops, OL grades, etc. I'd charge that their ineptitude was largely due to Teddy. He got a poor PFF grade and was gotten rid of (well, presumably) within the year that he began. That's not a vote of confidence and Carolina nearly procured a hernia getting another guy, despite the limited draft capital they spent. (The tea leaves are there.)

I mean, I know there's something to be gleaned from traditional stats, but asserting that the offense was bad where the guy that handles the ball every snap was bad implicates the guy rather than his surrounding talent. You may disagree, but that's my take on the issue.

Plus McCaffrey missed most of the season.

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3 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Plus McCaffrey missed most of the season.

A healthy CMC helps any QB and offense.   I don’t think Darnold will ever be great but he could be an average starter.   It’s these types of storylines that keep me interested in the NFL.  

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2 minutes ago, DocHolliday said:

A healthy CMC helps any QB and offense.   I don’t think Darnold will ever be great but he could be an average starter.   It’s these types of storylines that keep me interested in the NFL.  

I think this is what we are looking at for fantasy, a middle of the road QB2. From an NFL perspective I think he'll be a little below average with the upside of being a little above average.

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4 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I think this is what we are looking at for fantasy, a middle of the road QB2. From an NFL perspective I think he'll be a little below average with the upside of being a little above average.

I think there is more upside than that in our game. The Panthers defense was bad and still will be while the strength of the offense is in its skill positions. On-script Sam will dictate whether he can be rehabbed or not, but off-script Sam presents upside opportunities. Fair to be concerned about the line, but I expect that to be their priority in the draft.

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Very rare to see a case like Sam...not many QBs entering their 4th year get a full do over.  I mean wipe the slate clean do-over....like he's a rookie again.  Rhule/Brady are going to have to break him down to the studs and build him up again....except this time with solid coaching and weapons....best thing they can do is draft a stud tackle with their #8 pick as we've seen Sam does not do well with heavy pressure.  

Make no mistake about it - Sam has looked bad and he deserves the criticism he has gotten...but he's really young and the past 3 yrs did give him poise and leadership.  If Carolina plays this right there is no reasons he cant be a solid starter for them for 10 plus yrs. He will really need to be coached up on the bad picks and bonehead rookie mistakes but I think its possible....he had so little around him he was always trying to make a big play....its mind boggling how bad Gase/Mac were.  

As a Jets fan it would definitely hurt to see but there are consequences to making awful hires at GM and HC and Sam is the casualty.  I think its a great gamble by Carolina as it essentially is a 2 yr audition.  Hope it works out.....though it would be nice to have a high 2d rd pick next yr so maybe he develops well and they still only win a few!  lol

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2 minutes ago, Kiddnets said:

I think its a great gamble by Carolina as it essentially is a 2 yr audition.  Hope it works out.....though it would be nice to have a high 2d rd pick next yr so maybe he develops well and they still only win a few!  lol

If they are able to rehab Sam I think there is still a good chance this happens. Any course correction is going to take at least several weeks, so there's plenty of time for the losses to pile up and the arrow to also point up by season's end - especially with this defense. 

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1 hour ago, Kiddnets said:

Very rare to see a case like Sam...not many QBs entering their 4th year get a full do over.  I mean wipe the slate clean do-over....like he's a rookie again.  Rhule/Brady are going to have to break him down to the studs and build him up again....except this time with solid coaching and weapons....best thing they can do is draft a stud tackle with their #8 pick as we've seen Sam does not do well with heavy pressure.  

Make no mistake about it - Sam has looked bad and he deserves the criticism he has gotten...but he's really young and the past 3 yrs did give him poise and leadership.  If Carolina plays this right there is no reasons he cant be a solid starter for them for 10 plus yrs. He will really need to be coached up on the bad picks and bonehead rookie mistakes but I think its possible....he had so little around him he was always trying to make a big play....its mind boggling how bad Gase/Mac were.  

As a Jets fan it would definitely hurt to see but there are consequences to making awful hires at GM and HC and Sam is the casualty.  I think its a great gamble by Carolina as it essentially is a 2 yr audition.  Hope it works out.....though it would be nice to have a high 2d rd pick next yr so maybe he develops well and they still only win a few!  lol

 

This. Sam could certainly go either way. Carolina seems like a pretty solid situation for him to rebuild.  Seems like a good kid and he handled everything as best he could, so I'm certainly not rooting against him personally

But as a Jets fan, I hope Carolina somehow stinks, obviously.

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1 hour ago, Kiddnets said:

Very rare to see a case like Sam...not many QBs entering their 4th year get a full do over.

I posted several pages ago how QBs that were drafted in the Top 10 overall fared moving on to a new team across the past 20 years. Granted, not all of them were in their early 20s.

HITS
Ryan Tannehill, Alex Smith, Carson Palmer

TOO EARLY TO TELL
Mitch Trubisky (backup for now), Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota (backup for now), Cam Newton (wasn't very good last year), Matt Stafford

MISSES
Josh Rosen, Blake Bortles, Robert Griffin, Blaine Gabbert, Sam Bradford, Mark Sanchez, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Byron Leftwich, David Carr, Joey Harrington

Maybe Darnold was better than a bunch of these other guys. Maybe the Panthers have more talent and better coaches than these other teams. Maybe all Darnold needed was a change of scenery. But couldn't those same items applied to a bunch of these other players when they moved on to a different team?

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10 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

I posted several pages ago how QBs that were drafted in the Top 10 overall fared moving on to a new team across the past 20 years. Granted, not all of them were in their early 20s.

HITS
Ryan Tannehill, Alex Smith, Carson Palmer

TOO EARLY TO TELL
Mitch Trubisky (backup for now), Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota (backup for now), Cam Newton (wasn't very good last year), Matt Stafford

MISSES
Josh Rosen, Blake Bortles, Robert Griffin, Blaine Gabbert, Sam Bradford, Mark Sanchez, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Byron Leftwich, David Carr, Joey Harrington

Maybe Darnold was better than a bunch of these other guys. Maybe the Panthers have more talent and better coaches than these other teams. Maybe all Darnold needed was a change of scenery. But couldn't those same items applied to a bunch of these other players when they moved on to a different team?

interesting....looking at the list Id say that most if not all of the misses were in pretty tough situations that were nowhere near as good as Sam's current......very rare to get a 2 yr audition after with solid coaching and weapons after crashing....most on that list didnt have that...at least we know the excuses will be gone and we'll know what he can do by the end of 2022.  

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On 4/6/2021 at 12:51 PM, Anarchy99 said:

Since I was curious about how things went for top QB picks that moved on, here is a list of former Top 10 picks that went on to play elsewhere over the past 20 years . . .


2018	Sam Darnold	3	TBD
2018	Josh Rosen	10	Already on 3rd team
2017	Mitch Trubisky	2	TBD but now a backup
2016	Jared Goff	1	TBD
2016	Carson Wentz	2	TBD
2015	Jameis Winston	1	TBD
2015	Marcus Mariota	2	TBD but now a backup
2014	Blake Bortles	3	Moved on to DEN and LAR
2012	Robert Griffin	2	7 starts in 4 years in CLE and BAL
2012	Ryan Tannehill	8	Blossomed in 2 years in TEN
2011	Cam Newton	1	Not great Year 1 in NE
2011	Blaine Gabbert	10	21 starts in 6 years on 4 teams
2010	Sam Bradford	1	Started for a year each in PHI and MIN, backup in ARI
2009	Matt Stafford	1	TBD
2009	Mark Sanchez	5	Mostly backup in 4 years with PHI, DAL, WAS
2006	Vince Young	1	1 year as a backup in PHI
2006	Matt Leinart	10	2 years a a backup in HOU and OAK
2005	Alex Smith	1	61-31 record as a starter since leaving SF
2004	Philip Rivers	4	1 year to close out his career in IND
2003	Carson Palmer	1	Had several strong seasons in OAK and ARI
2003	Byron Leftwich	7	6 starts in 5 years on 3 teams
2002	David Carr	1	4 starts in 5 years on 3 teams
2002	Joey Harrington	3	A year starting for MIA and another for ATL
2001	Michael Vick	1	Started 3.5 years for PHI then backup in NYJ and PIT

Guys that seemed to be successful in Act II were Tannehill, Smith, and Palmer. Vick is sort of in his own category, as he didn't have performance issues while in ATL, his legal issues kept him away. Many of the older examples went on to be backups. Too soon to tell on the handful of more recent players.

I looked at how the rest of the QBs that were First Round picks (#11-32) that switched teams. That list makes the Picks 1-10 list seem like a bunch of future HOFers by comparison.

2019	Dwayne Haskins	15	Now a backup
2016	Paxton Lynch	26	2 teams, 0 starts
2014	T Bridgewater	32	3 teams, 1 subpar year as a starter
2013	EJ Manual	16	2 teams, started 1 game
2012	Brandon Weeden	22	3 teams, started 1 game
2011	C Ponder	12	3 teams, 0 starts
2010	Tim Tebow	25	3 teams, 2 starts
2009	Josh Freeman	17	4 teams, 2 starts
2008	Joe Flacco	18	3 teams, 12 starts
2007	Brady Quinn	22	6 teams, 8 starts
2006	Jay Cutler	11	2 teams, 116 starts
2005	Jason Campbell	25	4 teams, 27 starts
2004	J.P. Losman	22	3 teams, 0 starts
2003	Kyle Boller	19	3 teams, 5 starts
2002	Rex Grossman	22	4 teams, 16 starts
2000	Chad Pennington	18	1 team, started for a season

Basically, Jay Cutler. Maybe Bridgewater can become an average starter somewhere. Pennington had a decent season for the Fins but that's about it. This list is basically appalling. So, yeah, bottom line, if you get drafted in the first round as a QB, you pretty much get one shot. Not many get a legit second chance.

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16 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Basically, Jay Cutler. Maybe Bridgewater can become an average starter somewhere. Pennington had a decent season for the Fins but that's about it. This list is basically appalling. So, yeah, bottom line, if you get drafted in the first round as a QB, you pretty much get one shot. Not many get a legit second chance.

I tend to agree with you which is why I'm not sanguine about Sam's chances. But I also think not many guys got a chance to hold the reins with as good a contract situation and as good of an offense as Sam will have.

I'm not a professional scout, but the advanced stats even show that he's going to have to be an outlier given his first three years.

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On 4/13/2021 at 12:26 PM, Anarchy99 said:

HITS
Ryan Tannehill, Alex Smith, Carson Palmer

 

Alex Smith and Carson Palmer were both very good on the teams that drafted them taking their teams to the playoffs multiple times (Smith took a while to develop). Smith was traded away because the Niners became enamored with Kaepernik and Palmer forced his was out of Cincinnati by retiring until they traded him. They shouldn't even really count.

The only subset that should be looked at is highly drafted QBs that failed with their first team before moving on - which doesn't look favorable for Darnold, but obviously doesn't mean he can't find success at the next stop.

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58 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Alex Smith and Carson Palmer were both very good on the teams that drafted them taking their teams to the playoffs multiple times (Smith took a while to develop). Smith was traded away because the Niners became enamored with Kaepernik and Palmer forced his was out of Cincinnati by retiring until they traded him. They shouldn't even really count.

The only subset that should be looked at is highly drafted QBs that failed with their first team before moving on - which doesn't look favorable for Darnold, but obviously doesn't mean he can't find success at the next stop.

Closest comparison on the list that I see is Tannenhill who coincidentally enough was also Gased.....I think Tanny would be the ceiling if things go well for Darnold which isnt too bad considering.

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1 hour ago, Kiddnets said:

Closest comparison on the list that I see is Tannenhill who coincidentally enough was also Gased.....I think Tanny would be the ceiling if things go well for Darnold which isnt too bad considering.

Tannehill was much better under Gase than Darnold was.

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